We all want to thank you for helping make the last week to 10 days the busiest we've had yet. We've had a few days in that span that are among our 5 busiest. We passed our busiest day awhile ago today and there's really not even another day that's been close to as busy as today has been here at Obstructed View. Thanks for that and we're glad you keep coming by.
Sometime tomorrow I'll post an article on each of the two prospects the Cubs acquired today and hopefully do a roundup on the trade deadline for the Cubs and what's to come this month.
someone mentioned tommy milone. his groundball rates were never quite as high as hendricks’. I hate to say it, but chris rusin might also be a fair comp, though he was a year behind where hendricks is at. (i’m using first inning for gb data).
bummer. i’m guessing corbin was involved.
http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/article/why_the_dodgers_didnt_get_dempster/11344717?new_post=true
@ GW:
Yeah, it was me throwing out the Milone comp as he is a control guy with a lot of different pitches he throws. Rusin also fits in that mold with maybe a lesser repertoire but their high A numbers look similar. AA and above will definitely prove what we have in him. But a 1 BB/9 and the idea of a soft tossing righty has me intrigued, goddamm Hope Monster®.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
Note that the article BubbaB linked says Villanueva has “explosive hands” and “lightning quick feet.” I’ll leave it to you all to imagine what that means.
And despite Kap’s complaints that the Cubs didn’t get enough for Demp, it seems that others think both guys will make it to the Majors. So that’s better than what they got for Lilly, if the “others” are correct. Even if neither is a high impact guy, getting two good parts for 2 mo of Demp seems like a good trade to me.
So I assume Vizcaino is starting tonight with Jackson leading off and Vitters batting ahead of Rizzo, yes?
@ SVB:
Yeah, I am happy with it. TINSTAAPP but I like Hendricks enough to think he is worth the gamble and Villanueva looks like he should be above replacement level at 3B in the bigs with both the bat and glove. Plus, no Dempster for 2 months helps them in the draft. Aiming for the #2 pick, as Houston has really decided to just throw in the towel.
Speaking of Double-A, check out the mugshot of the guy who’s pitching against Tennessee tonight…
http://www.milb.com/index.jsp?sid=t553
He’s like a poor man’s Kip Dynamite.
Rice Cube wrote:
I thought Kip Dynamite was a poor man’s Kip Dynamite.
@ SVB:
imo all the complaints that they didn’t get enough are strictly relative to the delgado deal, which is to be expected. i think this is about what we expected prior to the leaking of that deal.
You’re welcome.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
You’re just jealous because he’s been chatting online with chicks all day.
@ Rice Cube:
So he thinks, MMORPG = Mostly Men Online Role Playing as Girls
@ BubbaBiscuit:
I can’t argue with you today.
Over/under on number of runs Coleman serves up tonight?
@ Rice Cube:
In the interest of white scrappiness and honoring former teammates, Coleman throws the no-hitter Dempster was going to have tonight.
@ Rice Cube:
2 or 288.
I’m not even sure this trade is all that much different than the Delgado trade. Delgado was a B prospect ranked in the top 50. HIs trade value as a prospect was somewhere close to around $12 million or so. B pitching prospect is about $7 million and top 50 is $15 million so I’m being generous with $12 million.
Top 76-100 hitter is worth $12.5 million and B- prospect about $6 million. You end up with an average value for him of about $9 million as opposed to an average of $11 million.
Add in the other prospect and it’s close to even.
From this perspective the value is close enough that it could be considered the same. Both trades were a little more than I thought, but not so much more than either surprised me. What does surprise me is that the Cubs aren’t sending money, or at least I haven’t heard about it so that’s very surprising. What we don’t know is if the same was true with the Braves. That could change everything. If the cubs were sending a few million to the Braves, or all of his remaining contract then this is a better trade.
Based on ceiling the Cubs come out behind in this trade. Based on likelihood of being useful at the big league level they come out behind.
I don’t think you can just look at this trade without considering what the Cubs got for Maholm though. I’m of the opinion that Vizcaino has significantly greater potential, even considering the injury, that I’d much rather have acquired him than Delgado. Maybe you think otherwise at which point you’ll obviously disagree. We also don’t know what the Cubs would have gotten for Maholm had they dealt with another team, but most thought the Braves were overly desperate to acquire Dempster and offered what they did. If true, the same is true for Maholm.
I don’t think there’s much or any difference in talent in what the Cubs have by trading Dempster and Maholm than what they could have gotten if Dempster accepted the trade to Atlanta. I actually think they come out ahead, but that’s because of how much more optimistic I am about Vizcaino than I am Delgado. That and the idea that the Braves were desperate and no other team was all that desperate to acquire him. It’s not like we heard a lot of teams were interested in Maholm leading up to the trade, but who knows?
I’d be interested to get Thoyer’s perspective on this though I wouldn’t trust anything they say publicly. In my opinion, the Cubs are a better team right now because Dempster didn’t go to Atlanta. Others may see it differently.
We’re all pretty certain the Braves wouldn’t have traded Delgado AND Vizcaino, right?
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/07/kyle-hendricks/
mb21 wrote:
this is almost certainly true. if you prefer vizcaino to delgado, then you should be happy with how it played out.
however, i can’t get on board with the rest of it. delgado performed decently at the major league level at 22. there’s a decent chance the two rangers’ prospects don’t even make it to the big leagues (and by decent i mean ~10%), let alone become regulars. prospect evaluators who have weighed in say the talent disparity between the two dempster deals is huge.
as far as the financials, i think it’s clear that the cubs wanted to spend money to receive prospects, as they have limited means of doing so. saving five million would be great if they could dump that money on overslots or into international free agency, but they really don’t have that option. if the goal is to acquire young talent, this is clearly a less successful deal. (again, looking only at the two dempster deals in isolation).
also, it should be noted that everyone reported two players would be coming from atlanta, but I don’t think we’ll ever find out who the other would have been.
@ GBTS:
Yes. They only went for Maholm because they couldn’t get Dempster. They made no attempt to land another starter today.
GW wrote:
Yeah and I’m no prospect evaluator. I think often times they evaluate more on ceiling, which as I said, makes this deal less appealing. If you base it on certainty, it’s less appealing. I can get behind the idea that the deal is a lesser one for the Cubs even though the numbers (trade value) are roughly the same. There’s enough that favors Delgado to tip the scales. Part of this is that I was never as high on Delgado as some here.
GW wrote:
That’s important too, but so is the money even if what they can do with it now is diminished. We don’t know how much, if any, the Cubs would have sent Atlanta.
Regardless of that, it’s a deal that didn’t happen. If people want to be upset about a deal that didn’t happen, so be it. Nothing I can do about it.
@ mb21:
yeah, if you aren’t on team delgado, there’s nothing really to complain about here.
Casey Coleman’s giving us a nice taste of what we’re in for for the rest of the season.
@ GW:
Don’t get me wrong. I think he’d have been quite valuable. It’s not that I don’t think he’d be that good. I thought he’d end up being about average at his best, which has a ton of value for someone pre-arbitration and pre-free agency. I just didn’t see future number 2 and definitely didn’t see future ace anywhere in there.
Not that Casey Coleman’s a terrible pitcher but… oh, what the hell, he’s terrible.
Four! FOUR runs! Ah-ah-ah…
To be fair, Casey’s xFIP so far is only 10.50. That means his ERA of 108 is about 90% bad luck.
cliff lee getting some run support tonight
@ mb21:
Like I mentioned not even 10 minutes after the trade was announced, it just wasn’t a lot more than I was expecting to get for Dempster. It was a bit more assuming the Cubs sent the remainder of his salary this year. Quite a bit more if they didn’t. I feel the same way about this trade. It’s a bit more than I expected if the Cubs sent $5 million to the Rangers. Quite a bit more than I was expecting if they didn’t send any money. What they lose is certainty, which I don’t think is a big deal for this team.
My initial impression when I heard about the Delgado deal was this: why are the Cubs going after someone who is already at the big league level? He’s going to be expensive by the time they contend.
It’s funny that’s the very first thing I thought of. (dying laughing)
@ Rizzo the Rat:
The chase for the first pick in the 2013 draft begins today.
@ mb21:
In truth, It will be very hard for the Cubs to catch the ‘Stros. The race for the second pick should be a nail-biter, though.
@ mb21:
We have a lot of ground to cover. Unfortunately we don’t have 5 Casey Colemans to start.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Yeah, I don’t think there’s any way they catch the Astros unless they throw a bunch of games.
mb21 wrote:
To be clear, I am not opposed to this.
@ mb21:
They kind of have to be covert about it though, right? Otherwise MLB might investigate…?
@ mb21:
I’m okay with the 5th pick. I don’t want us to win 20 games in a row though and end up with the 16th. Although that would be fun to watch, it would suck (dying laughing). It’s not that I want the Cubs lose, but if we are going to suck might as well get the 2nd pick out of it.
@ Rice Cube:
Just give Garza a couple extra months to recover from his injury.
@ WaLi22:
What I’m trying to say is if I’m watching the game, I want them to win. If I’m just checking the box score, they can lose. I’m selfish (dying laughing)
@ WaLi22:
This is why I don’t like the draft order rule. I want the Cubs to get a great draft pick, but I still want to root for them to win (at least occasionally). There’s more to life than winning titles.
@ mb21:
With the trades they made, aren’t the Astro’s already throwing games?
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Yeah, like the bottom 5-10 teams should just be in a shuffle for the top picks. If you are in the bottom third, you suck and need help.
Doesn’t basketball do something like this, but weights it?
@ WaLi22:
yes, but in basketball the picks are much more valuable.
@ mb21:
yeah but is this trade (the dempster one) better than the two draft picks the cubs would have received if dempster refused arb?
@ EnricoPallazzo:
one pick. and almost certainly it is.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I do too. As much as I root for the top pick, if I’m watching I want them to play well. Winning is better than losing if you’re watching.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Yeah, they’d only have gotten one pick and it’s doubtful they’d have gotten a top 100 prospect. The Cubs got that plus a guy who I think probably won’t amount to much, but is also a guy worth keeping an eye on. He could surprise us.
mb21 wrote:
I’m pretty sure this is an OR requirement, not AND. So the youngest player could be a 20 yr old junior. (I was 20 finishing my junior year in college)
WaLi22 wrote:
/meatball’d
@ WaLi22:
True and thanks for pointing that out. I don’t think it changes the argument, but yeah, there are probably a few more 20 year olds in the draft than I was thinking.
@ GW:
@ mb21:
why did i think it was a first round plus a sandwich pick? did it used to be like that before the new CBA?
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Yeah, that confused me for the longest time until MLBTR published a post about the new change a week or two ago.
(dying laughing)
Most kids are 18 or nearing 18 when they graduate high school. Most people who finish their junior year will be 21 or nearing 21.
Josh Vitters is an example of a player who would have been 20 had he gone to college for 3 years. He was very young for the draft.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Because we had assumed it was 2 until someone (RC?) pointed it out a week or 10 days ago.
Just your run of the mill 8-6-3 single.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Yeah, the new CBA changed it. The team signing the player still loses a 1st, but the team that lost the player does not get that pick, it just gets skipped more or less.
@ mb21:
Right. There won’t be many 20 yo juniors entering the draft and it doesn’t change your argument at all.
I think it’s weird how if you go to a junior college you can enter the draft after your freshman or sophomore season. So you could be an 18 yo or 19 yo getting drafted out of junior college.
mb21 wrote:
It was me, though really I just cut an pasted it from another article (dying laughing)
@ WaLi22:
I think the JuCo rule is a bit odd, but at least the 4 year college rule is not the one and done thing like the NBA. This is what, John Calipari’s 4th straight year with 5 new starters on his college team or something crazy like that.
I’m sitting at wrigley on a beautiful summer night and the only excitement is reading about today’s trades on OV (dying laughing)
@ BubbaBiscuit:
which is really weird, isn’t it?
It’s clear that because of the CBA that building a strong farm system is even more important. I suppose the reasoning for this at the time the decision was made that it might make it more difficult for large market teams, but who do they think is going to be best at player development in a few years? The large market teams.
Gameday says Burnett is really rocking the knuckle curve.
Cubs got a baserunner. It’s like they’re not even trying to lose.
SG on RLYW was not too happy when Bowden tweeted that the Yankees may have acquired Dempster. “I wouldn’t take him for free.” I think that’s a bit harsh, but that’s the 2nd Yankees blogger I’ve read that wanted nothing to do with Dempster.
Dempster joked that he’d probably have thrown a no-hitter if he was starting tonight when Bruce Miles asked. It would have been overshadowed by AJ’s no-hitter and the Cubs loss. (dying laughing)
No hit through 5. Could be the most exciting game I’ve been to all year (dying laughing)
Scott Maine is allowed to hit? They are throwing the game.
Well, this is pathetic. Almost has me watching the olympics.
@ PFD:
You take that back.
I really hope the Cubs keep up their no no-hitter streak that goes back to the Koufax perfect game.
Six more outs…
This game is suddenly very interesting.
Yeah, I guess it’s interesting to watch Cub ineptitude reaching new heights (dying laughing)
@ PFD:
It is a no-hitter. Sucks to be the Cubs, but I’d rather they get no-hit than shutout one 1 hit. At least then I can say I saw another no-hitter.
I’ve always thought a 1 or 2-hitter looks worse for the offense than a no-hitter for some reason.
Ouch.
Barney with the best contact all night.
Cubs have the longest streak of avoiding no-hit. That’s kinda impressive.
I’m glad they’re talking him out. I think we should see more of this when a player gets hit in the head.
OUCH. Barney got hit in the helmet. Man out.
Better safe than sorry.
@ GBTS:
Had that sweet sound. Thought it was gone. He was.
No hitter intact, but if AJ doesn’t figure his control out the shutout will be gone before long.
The fuck is this guy?
I heard the Grand Slam in the first inning and missed the rest. On the plus side, I hit a triple in my softball game. Sure, the last game of the season and I go 2-for-3, doubling my hit total for the season. I only play hard when it doesn’t matter.
The Cubs offense was blindsided by these trades.
Oh shit. No hitter? Fuck that shit!
@ josh:
Just padding the stats.
You guys can think me for breaking that shit up on the first batter I watch.
This game just got a lot less interesting.
@ GBTS:
(dying laughing)
Done.
@ GBTS:
The one guy not blindsided by all the trades.
I don’t know why Burnett is being a count. Those two pitches weren’t close.
@ mb21:
I was hitting #2. Had to get the ball rolling. We did outscore our opponents by 11 runs, but only scored one of those and no RBIs.
@ GBTS:
Gameday has them closer than the TV pitch track showed. But still outside.
AJ Burnett throws a Knuckle curve?
@ mb21:
I’ve said this already, but I want their streak to continue. It’s one of my favorite pieces of trivia about the Cubs, and it’s even something positive.
@ mb21:
Although, on the triple, I actually chased the runner ahead of me home, and he got thrown out, so that was kind of selfish. I thought he’d make it but I forgot he’s like 70 years old.
@ josh:
yeah i was wondering about that
Knuckle curve is baseball’s jumbo shrimp.
Ex-Cub update:
Sean Marshall just brought his ERA down to 2.48.
A. Ram. just brought his line up to .293/.356/.504
what percentage of people shut the game off after cardenas’s hit? i would say >80%
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I know I did.
Aroldis Chapman only got 1 strikeout. Weird.
Eric wrote:
Mmm, shrimp. On that note, does enough bacon count as an oxymoron?
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Yup.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=23500691&c_id=mlb
(dying laughing)
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
Trade him for a bag of balls or Carlos Zambrano
I left after the Cardenas hit (dying laughing)
I don’t see him get a lot of discussion, but is it worth mentioning Michael Burgess?
He’s 23 in AA, so he’s not a fossil for his league. He’s generally has a decent BB% but has always had some Brett Jackson neighborhood level K%. This year though, he has cut his K% to 15.5 and has a career best BB/K rate of .73.
He had a BABIP of .253 last year, which is why I suspect he didn’t make any hype waves, but this year it’s back at .294 and his OPS is right around .798, 12th best in the Southern League. 1 triple and 0 steals, so he probably runs about like me, but he seems to have been playing better than Jim Aducci who is over 3 years older and got the call to Iowa.
I am interested to see him in AAA next year to see if he can sustain his K% drop against better competition.
I don’t know about anybody else but 112/15 K/BB warms the cockles of me heart, I don’t fucking care about the level.
Gordo sez:
Soriano doesn’t have a list of teams either way but OK’d Dodgers and nixed Giants. He could still be traded before 8/31.
Vitters likely to be called up in August
Garza spent deadline day at the hospital awaiting the birth of his fourth child. That would have sucked for him to have that interrupted by trade bullshit.
Shit that is new
http://www.obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/the-children-are-the-future-cubs-minor-league-update-sponsored-by-friendster.html