Mike Quade's Star Wars Nicknames

[quote name=mb21]Yes, RC. Leverage is very important for relievers. A closer is typically around 1.8 to 2.0 so take their WAR and multiply it by that number. If a reliever is 1 WAR and has a 2.0 leverage, he’s worth 2 WAR.

That makes what Sean Marshall has done the last 2 seasons very impressive. Not sure what his leverage is though.[/quote]Wat? Leverage isn’t included in WAR, at least not in fWAR. It all comes from context-neutral stats (for pitchers, FIP).

From http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pitcher-win-values-explained-part-seven :

Remember, though, these are context neutral win values. Actual wins contributed to a team’s ledger will also be affected by how each pitcher performed with runners on base, as well as the performance of the defenders behind the pitcher. There are going to be cases where a pitcher has a much better (or worse) context neutral win value than you might expect if you’re used to looking at his W-L record or his ERA.

If you’re talking about WPA, of course, then the leverage of each situation in which you appear matters. But for WAR, a strikeout is a strikeout whether it comes in the first with none on or in the ninth with the bases loaded. Which is why relievers so rarely have high WARs, and why Rivera (and Marshall for that matter) is even more impressive.

[quote name=fang2415]I hate Quade’s nicknames. Who calls someone named “Starlin” by anything to do with his last name? Unless it’s to call him “Fidel”.[/quote]Calling him Fidel would be a level 2 nickname. I don’t think Q is ready for that level of difficulty yet.

[quote name=Mish]Palpatine would either be “Palpy” or “Sids”.[/quote]
(dying laughing)
How did I forget Palpy?

[quote name=fang2415]If you’re talking about WPA, of course, then the leverage of each situation in which you appear matters. But for WAR, a strikeout is a strikeout whether it comes in the first with none on or in the ninth with the bases loaded. Which is why relievers so rarely have high WARs, and why Rivera (and Marshall for that matter) is even more impressive.[/quote]
I dont actually know exactly how WAR is calculated so this is helpful.

Also, (dying laughing) @ Quade Wars

[quote name=Mish]For whatever reason, I feel like there should be more major or secondary characters but they are not. Sure, I can name one-scene aliens like Salacious Crumb, but I figured there’d be more significant characters.[/quote]Greeds?

It’s a small galaxy after all.

Mon Mothma —> Mothy

IG-88 —-> Iggy

3PO would definitely be “Threepy.”

Darth Bane —> Banes

[quote name=Rice Cube]I dont actually know exactly how WAR is calculated so this is helpful.

Also, (dying laughing) @ Quade Wars[/quote]Yeah, Fangraphs basically just takes wOBA, FIP and converts them to runs added/prevented, which is easy since wOBA and FIP basically just represent the number of runs you’d normally expect from each HR/K/double/whatever anyway. Then it does something similar with baserunning and defense, adds 1C salt, divides the run total by 10 since 10 runs usually produces 1 win, and subtracts whatever a replacement-level guy would do. No leverage in the picture AFAIK.

I have no idea what rWAR does because I have no idea how to find anything on Baseball Reference’s site. (dying laughing)

Anakin Skywalker –> Kinney

I’m looking at rWAR and I guess it’s not as simple as multiplying RAR by aLI They do use leverage somehow, though.

[quote name=fang2415]

TK-421 —> Not-at-his-posty?[/quote].

In the definition, it says it includes defensive support and “includes additional value for high leverage situations.”

The average Leverage Index of a closer is about 1.8, meaning that each plate appearance is about 80 percent more important than an average PA. We give the closer credit for half of that, based on the principle of chaining.

So, it looks as though neither version of WAR simply multiplies RAR by aLI. I’m not sure what rWAR does, but I assume it’s similar to fWAR.

Alderaan was looking so good that we decided to cut it short.

Fucking Star Wars fagets still at it. Shouldn’t you have a post about the 2013 schedule or Eddie Vedder’s bowling shoes?

[quote name=Suburban kid 22]Fucking Star Wars fagets still at it. Shouldn’t you have a post about the 2013 schedule or Eddie Vedder’s bowling shoes?[/quote]Too recent of a film for SK’s liking.

[quote name=fang2415]Half of 1.8 is .9, which is roughly the average LI (1); it seems to me like Cameron is saying “by leaving LI out, we’re roughly halving reliever’s LI, which is justified because they’re easier to replace”.
[/quote]No, it means it means they use 1.4, which is halfway between 1.8 and 1.0.

[quote name=ACT]I’m looking at rWAR and I guess it’s not as simple as multiplying RAR by aLI They do use leverage somehow, though.[/quote]Yeah, leverage is included in relievers WAR. I misspoke in the last thread though. The initial WAR isn’t multiplied by leverage but instead by this (LI+1)/2. So if a closer had a leverage of 2 you multiply his RAR by 1.5 and then then again multiply it my about 10 to get WAR. I assume that’s how Fangraphs does it, but I don’t know. I know that’s how Tango does it and I know that’s how Rally does it for rWAR. I just assumed Fangraphs did it the way the stat was invented.

[quote name=ACT]No, it means it means they use 1.4, which is halfway between 1.8 and 1.0.[/quote]Exactly. If you’re trying to value a reliever in terms of a contract, you’d pick a number relatively close to what you think he’ll get based on your expected role.

Example using Marmol. on BRef he’s worth 6 RAR and has an aLI of 2.0. Multiply the 6 by 1.5 (2.0aLI+1)/2) and you get 9. Divide that by 10 and you get .9. His rWAR is .9.

[quote name=josh]Holy shit, did he buy new bowling shoes!!?!?![/quote]I don’t know but the old ones are probably in Kerry Dempster’s charity auction.

[quote name=josh]I’m inclined to think “Obi” is almost too obvious. “Wanny”?[/quote]
I thought that, but Cuey isn’t known for his originality.

[quote name=josh]I’m inclined to think “Obi” is almost too obvious. “Wanny”?[/quote]
He’s just Ken

Mariano in ’96:

RAR: 57
aLI: 1.5 (1.25 multplier)
WAR: 5.4

Mariano in ’97

RAR: 32
aLI: 2.2 (1.6 multiplier)
WAR: 4.2

I just don’t see how to get those WAR numbers.

[quote name=fang2415]Er, it could, I guess. But Cameron doesn’t make that explicit, so he could be talking about almost anything.

[/quote]I thought it was quite clear:

The average Leverage Index of a closer is about 1.8, meaning that each plate appearance is about 80 percent more important than an average PA. We give the closer credit for half of that.

I think it’s obvious that “half of that” is a reference to the “80 percent more important than an average PA” (i.e., that last thing he said.)

[quote name=Berselius]He’s just Ken[/quote]Maybe “Benny” if Q knew Obi Wan’s super secrety alias.

Well, it could just be that Fangraph’s documentation just sucks. Why would Cameron go on for paragraphs about how it’s context-neutral if it isn’t?

Also, I know they do sometimes change Tango’s formulas; for instance, their wOBA includes IBBs weighted at about .41, which I don’t think Tango has ever recommended. (They do some other weird shit too. I’ve spent days trying to recreate their wOBA numbers and I still can’t figure out what the hell is really in there.)

With relievers, especially closers, it’s important to consider the leverage because he’s in that position because he’s good. As Tango says in that thread I linked, he’s there for similar reasons that Ozzie Smith is at SS and Ozzie got credit for that. The closer should too.

•C3PO: Faget

[quote name=ACT]I think it’s obvious that “half of that” is a reference to the “80 percent more important than an average PA” (i.e., that last thing he said.)[/quote]You’re probably right, since that agrees with Tango’s formula, but when I read it I assumed he meant half of 1.8.

Bottom line is that Cameron’s article was meant as a conceptual discussion rather than a mathematical specification (and the concepts were a bit muddled to boot). But the fact that it’s practically impossible to find what the hell is actually in such an important number on their site is not so good.

This Is About Motherfucking Star Wars

(dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)

[quote name=mb21]With relievers, especially closers, it’s important to consider the leverage because he’s in that position because he’s good. As Tango says in that thread I linked, he’s there for similar reasons that Ozzie Smith is at SS and Ozzie got credit for that. The closer should too.[/quote]That sort of makes sense, although it seems like a bit of a fudge. But, hey, I guess that’s statistics — if it does the job, it’s not too important whether it’s for quite the right reasons (seriously).

[quote name=fang2415]That sort of makes sense, although it seems like a bit of a fudge. But, hey, I guess that’s statistics — if it does the job, it’s not too important whether it’s for quite the right reasons (seriously).[/quote]That just means the theory nerds need to work harder to make it sound right.

[quote name=ACT]Phillies clinched a playoff berth with Halladay’s 1-0 complete game shutout.[/quote]
If he had hit a homer you could argue that Halladay earned the victory himself. Alas, he is not that awesome with the bat.

[quote name=ACT]He did get a hit, at least. Also, there were 8 fielders helping him earn the shutout.[/quote]
He is not truly fielding independent then. What a joke.

[quote name=Rice Cube]He is not truly fielding independent then. What a joke.[/quote]No HOF for him.

[quote name=fang2415]Also, the link from Tango you posted only gives the leverage bonus to closers. Is that literally only for the pitcher that finishes the game, irrespective of leverage at that point? Could the current metrics be rewarding high-leverage middle relief as well?

Ugh, I don’t even really care, actually. But it annoys the hell out of me that the numbers that get conveniently posted at fangraphs and, I assume, b-ref, can never truly be independently audited or reproduced since nobody knows what’s really in them.[/quote]
I think there was a later discussion on Beyond the Box Score about that. I agree the numbers should be reproducible and not being able to do with Rivera is a small concern. I’m sure there’s some reason why.

[quote name=Aisle424](dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)[/quote]I love the tags that make me laugh. Make me think of ways I can use them again. (dying laughing)

[quote name=mb21]I don’t think a reliever should be able to win a Cy Young Award, but it’s a bit depressing to think that other relievers have yet the best one in history hasn’t and almost certainly never will.[/quote]I wouldn’t mind a reliever who pitched pitched brilliantly over a ton of innings winning, but that kind of pitcher (old-school closer) doesn’t really exist anymore.

[quote name=mb21]I don’t think a reliever should be able to win a Cy Young Award, but it’s a bit depressing to think that other relievers have yet the best one in history hasn’t and almost certainly never will.[/quote]Wilson Valdez is the clear favorite this year.

[quote name=ACT]Also, it pisses me off that Gagne won the Cy Young that rightly belonged to Prior.[/quote]
That would really only make it suck more that his career was the baseball equivalent of Dexy’s Midnight Runners.

[quote name=ACT]Also, it pisses me off that Gagne won the Cy Young that rightly belonged to Prior.[/quote]That actually didn’t bother me, but I think part of why is that I figured Prior would win a handful of them. So not getting in 2003 just didn’t seem like a big deal.

[quote name=mb21]That actually didn’t bother me, but I think part of why is that I figured Prior would win a handful of them. So not getting in 2003 just didn’t seem like a big deal.[/quote]
Must’ve been tough to stomach the Dennis Eckersley MVP then.

Weird, it quoted the wrong quote. Oh well (dying laughing)

[quote name=ACT]Yeah, poor Roger Clemens got gypped. He had to settle for only winning 7 awards.[/quote]
One of them he probably didn’t deserve so it evens out.

This Verlander guy should get a Cy Young though.

[quote name=ACT]Also, it pisses me off that Gagne won the Cy Young that rightly belonged to Prior in spite of the fact that he was blatantly taking steroids and nobody bothered to care.[/quote].

Joe Poz on saves:

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2011/09/meaning-of-600-saves.html

[quote name=jtsunami]I don’t know what this means.[/quote]I think he had a seizure.

[quote name=jtsunami]I don’t know what this means.[/quote]That’s the order in which fans like those things.

Are we sure that Mariano Rivera is a hall of famer?

Yea i think he gets in for sure but i am now not sure he should be

The postseason automaticness probably cements his HOF case if the 600 saves don’t.

[quote name=Rice Cube]The postseason automaticness probably cements his HOF case if the 600 saves don’t.[/quote]
This might be completely incorrect but when I think of mariano in the postseason i think of luis gonzalez…

[quote name=bubblesdachimp]This might be completely incorrect but when I think of mariano in the postseason i think of luis gonzalez…[/quote]
That is like the only blown save in the postseason I know of by Mariano Rivera. I might also be wrong. Basically if you see Rivera in the postseason, the game is over.

Just check B-Ref

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=riverma01&t=p&post=1

There you go. Aisley was correct.

[quote name=Aisle424]I was right and he also blew Game 5. He then blew a couple of saves against the Red Sox the next season too and everyone started saying how the Red Sox finally had his number.[/quote]
Shitty variance.

139.2 IP and he has a 0.71 post-season ERA and a 0.766 WHIP.

Un-fucking-real.

Castro has been having a pretty good run. It’d be nice for him to hit that 200 milestone. Just to have something to say positive about the season.

Among relievers with 500 innings pitched (80% of their appearances as a reliever), Rivera’s ERA+ is 205. Next best is Wagner at 187. Then you have K-Rod at 170 and next after that is 157. Only one reliever has more than 41.3 rWAR: Rivera and he has 55+. Probably 60 by the time he calls it quits. After Wilhelm (41.3) and Gossage (40.0), next best is Trevor Hoffman at 30.8. Seriously. There is THAT much difference between Rivera and the rest.

Then factor in the absurd postseason production and we’re talking about a guy who is nearly twice as valuable as the next best reliever.

[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Here is my real question.. What if Verlander jsut stopped pitching today.. Would he be in?[/quote]
I don’t think he has the 10 year minimum to get in…

[quote name=mb21]Yeah, basically 2 seasons of ridiculously good production. Unbelievable how good he is.

Bubbles, yes, without doubt Mo is a hall of famer. The greatest relief pitcher ever and it’s not even remotely close. There’s Mo and then nobody and then the great ones. There is literally that much difference between Mo and the rest of the relievers. If there’s no place for him in the Hall of Fame they may as well close the place down.[/quote]
But they should not let anybody in until Ron Santo gets inducted!!! 111 rec’d 111 LSA NAMBLA!

[quote name=Aisle424]But they should not let anybody in until Ron Santo gets inducted!!! 111 rec’d 111 LSA NAMBLA![/quote]And they should kick out all the African Americans until Buck O’Neil is in.

I think Hoffman, while he had a ton of saves, had lower leverage or something and that’s why he doesn’t have as much WAR. I was surprised by that as well. Which goes to show that the “save” is a stupid stat (dying laughing)

I think I want Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens in the HOF before I would freak out about Mariano Rivera being excluded.

[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Isnt that a silly rule though? Verlander now ahs more career innings.. Why is there a year threshold?[/quote]Maybe just to pass the test of consistency? A lot of guys have good years and then nothing. Verlander may be a kind-of exception, but in general just to ensure a fair sample set, I would think.

[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Isnt that a silly rule though? Verlander now ahs more career innings.. Why is there a year threshold?[/quote]I don’t think it’s a silly rule. If we got rid of that rule, how long before we elect some guy who had an unbelievable season and then was never heard from again? Being in the league for 10 years means you’re one of the best in the league. You don’t stick around that long if you aren’t a good player. He may have more innings than Mariano, but he had less than half the rWAR than Rivera does. That’s how GOOD Rivera has been.

[quote name=mb21]There are some from the Negro Leagues who didn’t get the chance to play 10 years.[/quote]
I’m guessing those are really special exceptions though, for obvious reasons.

Alright jsut wanted to run this by people… i trust yall…

So um we need pitching more than a bat yea?

koufax is damn close

According to the always reliable wikipedia:

A special Negro league committee selected Satchel Paige in 1971, followed by (in alphabetical order) Cool Papa Bell, Oscar Charleston, Martín Dihigo, Josh Gibson, Monte Irvin, Judy Johnson, Buck Leonard and John Henry Lloyd. (Of the nine, only Irvin and Paige spent any time in the major leagues.) The Veterans Committee later selected Ray Dandridge, as well as choosing Rube Foster on the basis of meritorious service.

[quote name=Rice Cube]What about non-MLBers? Like Sadaharu Oh? Is he in the HOF?[/quote]There are announcers, but not Sadaharu Oh. The HOF mainly focused on the Negro Leagues because their existence was the result of segregation that MLB created.

[quote name=mb21]There are announcers, but not Sadaharu Oh. The HOF mainly focused on the Negro Leagues because their existence was the result of segregation that MLB created.[/quote]
I’m somewhat surprised by that. I thought that if any foreign player who never played in MLB deserved it, it’d be Oh.

I don’t think Oh was kept out of playing in MLB because of racism. In fact, I think the Japanese leagues prevented Japanese players from playing in MLB at that time.

[quote name=mb21]I don’t think Oh was kept out of playing in MLB because of racism. In fact, I think the Japanese leagues prevented Japanese players from playing in MLB at that time.[/quote]
Oh, I don’t mean to suggest racism or anything. I just didn’t think Cooperstown was just for MLB and Negro Leagues, but for all of baseball.

Pat likes to go on and on about how pitchers used to win 30 games and pitch 9 innings. Yeah, but you have to think how many good pitchers fell apart and were never heard from again because of that kind of punishment on their arms. The way they do it now, more guys get to have careers that last longer than a week.

[quote name=mb21]Bubbles, from what I can tell from the media, the Cubs don’t look to be active on the free agent market next year. What you see right now is likely what you see next year.[/quote]
You might very well be correct. I can tell you i havent watched a cubs game in about a month… i mean i for sure follow on gamecast, but yea that is depressing. no point to bring ramirez back if we are running this same joke of a team out there

So we could legit be looking at a lineup of

Castro
Blake Baker (3B)
Byrd
Lahair
soriano (i am jsut not onvinced they will eat him)
Soto
Barney
Colvin

i am vomitting thinking about that

[quote name=bubblesdachimp]So we could legit be looking at a lineup of

Castro
Blake Baker (3B)
Byrd
Lahair
soriano (i am jsut not onvinced they will eat him)
Soto
Barney
Colvin

i am vomitting thinking about that[/quote]Don’t forget Peenya. Depending on how he does the rest of this year and in the spring, I’m almost more inclined to think LaHair gets the nod over Colvin in RF, and I figure they’ll bring Peenya back, just to keep the team from being totally embarrassing.

[quote name=Rice Cube]Oh, I don’t mean to suggest racism or anything. I just didn’t think Cooperstown was just for MLB and Negro Leagues, but for all of baseball.[/quote]It’s just MLB as far as I know.

[quote name=mb21]It’s just MLB as far as I know.[/quote]Technically it’s supposed to be devoted to the history of baseball in America. They include Canada, because… close enough.

[quote name=Rice Cube]Both the basketball and hockey HOFs include everyone. I’m surprised Cooperstown doesn’t.[/quote]It’s not like a national law or anything, I don’t think. It’s a museum some guy started in the Depression to make money. The rules have evolved over the years. Maybe someday, Japanese baseball would be included, but I would think not unless Americans became somehow more aware of Japanese baseball.

[quote name=bubblesdachimp]So we could legit be looking at a lineup of

Castro
Blake Baker (3B)
Byrd
Lahair
soriano (i am jsut not onvinced they will eat him)
Soto
Barney
Colvin

i am vomitting thinking about that[/quote]I doubt they eat Soriano. That would probably be illegal.

I don’t mind the lineup. I don’t really care. If the team is finally going to rebuild then I’m happy. If it means they suck for a few years, so be it. They’ve sucked for the part of their existence. What’s a few more years?

[quote name=Rice Cube]Both the basketball and hockey HOFs include everyone. I’m surprised Cooperstown doesn’t.[/quote]Baseball is an American sport so I don’t have a problem with it. Those who weren’t granted access to it like the Negro League players should have access to the Hall of Fame, but I’m OK with the HOF not celebrating Japanese or Korean baseball. If they did that, do you also include rounders and then pesepallo? Based on what the statisticians have found, the Japanese leagues are currently about the equivalent of AAA. So if we honor players from there then we’d have to honor the great AAA players here.

[quote name=mb21]Baseball is an American sport so I don’t have a problem with it. Those who weren’t granted access to it like the Negro League players should have access to the Hall of Fame, but I’m OK with the HOF not celebrating Japanese or Korean baseball. If they did that, do you also include rounders and then pesepallo? Based on what the statisticians have found, the Japanese leagues are currently about the equivalent of AAA. So if we honor players from there then we’d have to honor the great AAA players here.[/quote]

Fair enough, what’s the current exchange rate of yen to dollars? Can convert Oh’s HR total to MLB (dying laughing)

[quote name=Rice Cube]Fair enough, what’s the current exchange rate of yen to dollars? Can convert Oh’s HR total to MLB (dying laughing)[/quote]I think BPro did an article about that a few years ago or maybe it was in one of their books. Let me look.

Not much about it here, but good enough for now: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6454

If you’re wondering about other major leagues, Sadaharu Oh is not your man. The level of play in the Japanese league is translateable too, but down, due to its level, which is somewhere between the Major Leagues and Triple-A. That leaves him with a rough estimate of 505 career translated homers for the purposes of this exercise.

Using the translations, this is the top of the list:

Babe Ruth 1070
Hank Aaron 971
Barry Bonds 931
Mel Ott 861
Willie Mays 856
Lou Gehrig 792
Jimmie Foxx 765
Reggie Jackson 757
Mike Schmidt 755
Ted Williams 752

That article is from 2007

[quote name=mb21]Not much about it here, but good enough for now: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6454

Using the translations, this is the top of the list:

Babe Ruth 1070
Hank Aaron 971
Barry Bonds 931
Mel Ott 861
Willie Mays 856
Lou Gehrig 792
Jimmie Foxx 765
Reggie Jackson 757
Mike Schmidt 755
Ted Williams 752

That article is from 2007[/quote]
That’s pretty cool. It’s like adjusting box office grosses for inflation.

[quote name=Rice Cube]By the way, did you guys decide on Count Dooku’s Quade-fied name? The obvious one is “Dooky” (lame, I know)[/quote]
He calls him Saruman the White

According to Wiki, ESPN listed Oh’s record as #2 on the list of most phony records because of his refusal to pitch to hitters.

Kit Fisto ——> Fisty?

Bib Fortuna —-> Forch

[quote name=Rice Cube]For a Japanese guy, that just seems really dishonorable.[/quote]It’s ESPN so take it with a grain of salt, but I had heard about it before I checked out his page on Wiki. Maybe there’s nothing to it. Who the fuck knows? (dying laughing)

[quote name=mb21]According to Wiki, ESPN listed Oh’s record as #2 on the list of most phony records because of his refusal to pitch to hitters.[/quote]That was in reference to the single-season record. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadaharu_Oh#Home_run_record_controversy

I probably should have read more previous comments before I made mine. Anyway, it seems that there was a lot of resistance in Japan to American players taking over the home run title, especially since most American players in Japan had failed (or found limited success) in the MLB. It’s not clear whether Oh himself ever ordered anyone to pitch around the batters, but there was plenty of motivation (and apparently even orders from higher up) for them to do so. http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/sb20081031j3.html

Verily, m’lords, I submit to thee Exhibit R, wherein the subject, one Aramis Ramirez, dared to dive and risk injury in a contract year during a meaningless game to make a decent defensive play:

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19225839

I honestly have never found the Monty Hall problem hard to understand. Counter-intuitive at first, but not that hard to figure out.

Or, to put it another way, when you “switch,” what you are really saying is, “the car is behind 1 of the 2 doors I did not pick.”

[quote name=mb21]I doubt they eat Soriano. That would probably be illegal.

I don’t mind the lineup. I don’t really care. If the team is finally going to rebuild then I’m happy. If it means they suck for a few years, so be it. They’ve sucked for the part of their existence. What’s a few more years?[/quote]
My problem is i dont want that to happen. i dont think i could take a full blown rebuild. I mihgt be able to. but it wont be a full blown rebuild. It will be byrd in center pena and ramirez still ath the corners and the same terrible rotation. I need some change.

[quote name=Rice Cube]Verily, m’lords, I submit to thee Exhibit R, wherein the subject, one Aramis Ramirez, dared to dive and risk injury in a contract year during a meaningless game to make a decent defensive play:

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19225839/quote

#270 mb21 2011-09-14 09:50 I didn’t know Melissa was Dutch: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14913053

I was just trying to get the most out of my unlimited calling plan. (dying laughing)

[quote name=melissa]I was just trying to get the most out of my unlimited calling plan. (dying laughing)[/quote]Grindy.

[quote name=melissa]I always give 110% even though you’d think it would only be 50% since I’m Dutch. [/quote]
The extra 60% is leadership.

The t[quote name=ACT]I guess what most people don’t understand is that the host intentionally does not open the door with the car behind it. The fact that he opens 1 door is evidence that the other door probably has the car (and, of course, the chances you guessed right at first were, and always will be, 1/3. The fact that he opened another door with a goat behind it has no bearing on your chances of having guessed right at first).[/quote]Exactly. He didn’t pick randomly.

[quote name=josh]OK, the Car/Goat problem was literally in the probability book I learned from as an undergraduate (it was called The Pleasures of Probability. I’m not joking).[/quote]Yeah, it’s a pretty common problem, but I really like how Ed lays it out here. I use it to talk about biases.

Still on a Star Wars kick and this came up:

http://teamcoco.com/video/new-star-wars-lightsaber-battle

It’s a good example too of why it’s important to start with the laying out the possible outcomes, instead of trying to justify your intuitive sense of what the answer is, at least in probability.

I’m not sure anyone has apprised Mike Quade of his job situation: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0915-bits-cubs-reds-chicago–20110915,0,7346666.story

bobfescoe Bob Fescoe
Hearing now the #big12 may be giving OU what they want to stay. Hearing UT like dollars to OU to keep them to stay

.

Where do those dollars come from? Iowa State? How long before ISU, KSU and Kansas have to pay to be a part of the Big 12? This time next year?

Seems to me the crux of that Monty Hall problem is that switching is beneficial because its twice as likely that your initial selection was a goat than the car.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I’m not sure anyone has apprised Mike Quade of his job situation: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0915-bits-cubs-reds-chicago–20110915,0,7346666.story/quote
‘Tis best to be blissfully unaware in these situations, I guess.

[quote name=GBTS]Seems to me the crux of that Monty Hall problem is that switching is beneficial because its twice as likely that your initial selection was a goat than the car.[/quote]It hinges on the fact that he shows you the contents of one of the curtains. If they simply give you the option to switch, there’s no benefit, your probability is exactly the same if you switch or stay: 1/3. If you stay, there is a 1/3 chance you are right. If you switch, there are 2 ways to be right, 4 ways to be wrong (there are 2 fewer ways to be wrong if the door is revealed), all with equal probability of occurring (1/6), so you are still 1/3 likely to get the car.

[quote name=josh]It’s the fact that if you initially chose wrong (which you are twice as likely to do), then you win by switching — in the case where Monty Hall reveals the wrong choice.[/quote]Yeah, this is basically what I was trying to say.

[quote name=GBTS]Yeah, this is basically what I was trying to say.[/quote]I realized that after I posted. Sorry, I’m running on little sleep and gallons of coffee.

I would just say that the key is both the 2x as likely to pick wrong and the fact of the reveal. Without the reveal, then switching gives no benefit, so that alone isn’t the key. I guess that’s what I was trying to say.

[quote name=GBTS][/quote]I guess so.

Pretty sad stuff

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/15/chris-mcalister-broke-living-with-parents-cant-pay-child-support/

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Jeebus, you can practically hear the knuckles dragging in the comments.[/quote]As Pat Hughes is fond of quipping: that money doesn’t come with instructions.

[quote name=Rice Cube]I think the pro leagues try to set up seminars for rookies to help them invest and manage their money better, but it’s up to them to actually attend and absorb the lessons…[/quote]THe NBA has been doing this for a few seasons, but I think the NFL just started. I know I would have been shit-for-brains if I ahd that much cash at 19 or 20 or even 21. And everyone of those commenters at PFT would have, too.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]THe NBA has been doing this for a few seasons, but I think the NFL just started. I know I would have been shit-for-brains if I ahd that much cash at 19 or 20 or even 21. And everyone of those commenters at PFT would have, too.[/quote]
Yeah, I think it’s a societal/behavioral thing that causes people to have poor money management skills (myself included) so these stories of rich athletes going broke are sad but not completely unexpected.

[quote name=Mucker]I blame it on MTV Cribs.[/quote]I blame Aramis Ramirez.

[quote name=Mucker]I blame it on MTV Cribs.[/quote][quote name=Berselius]I blame Aramis Ramirez.[/quote][quote name=Mucker]Well yeah, that goes without saying.[/quote]
Nice snark.

I often wonder why money management isn’t taught in high school as an offshoot of economics. High school is when most kids get their first jobs, and they need to prep for college when they will also hold jobs and will have to fend for themselves in many ways for the first time in their lives. Just seems like an important part of the curriculum whether or not they have an allowance, a job, or both.

[quote name=Rice Cube]Nice snark.

I often wonder why money management isn’t taught in high school as an offshoot of economics. High school is when most kids get their first jobs, and they need to prep for college when they will also hold jobs and will have to fend for themselves in many ways for the first time in their lives. Just seems like an important part of the curriculum whether or not they have an allowance, a job, or both.[/quote]Money Management is a good idea, but you can’t prepare someone for that kind of money. I blew my student loans in graduate school on stuff like overpaying for a mattress. I wish I hadn’t done that. I’d be better off now, but at the time, you’re just thinking about the fact that I’d been sleeping on a mattress my brother found in an alley for the last 6 months. It would be very hard not to blow that money. You definitely have to hire an accountant or someone to help you. And occasionally those guys rip people off, so even that’s not 100%. Plus, dude probably at the time figured he’d just blow the first few years’ worth of money, then he’d get smart about investing, figuring he’d be playing for 10 years or more. Your brain likes to play tricks on you like that.

[quote name=Rice Cube]I would argue that you can in fact prepare someone for large sums of money, and that’s how wealthy people stay wealthy. But I definitely see your point and raise you two shots of Red Bull.[/quote]Well, wealthy people come in two categories: earned and inherited. If you earn it, you presumably worked up incrementally. It would be way easier to deal with wealth incrementally, since you wouldn’t reach a really high level of wealth until you had already more or less learned to deal with it. Inherited wealthy tend to have safeties put in place by their parents or grandparents that teach them how to use it. Athletes tend to be more of the win-the-lottery kind of wealthy, where you suddenly go from average income to getting large sums of money dumped on you monthly. It’s harder to adjust. Not saying its not possible to learn it, though. Just difficult.

[quote name=josh]Well, wealthy people come in two categories: earned and inherited. If you earn it, you presumably worked up incrementally. It would be way easier to deal with wealth incrementally, since you wouldn’t reach a really high level of wealth until you had already more or less learned to deal with it. Inherited wealthy tend to have safeties put in place by their parents or grandparents that teach them how to use it. Athletes tend to be more of the win-the-lottery kind of wealthy, where you suddenly go from average income to getting large sums of money dumped on you monthly. It’s harder to adjust. Not saying its not possible to learn it, though. Just difficult.[/quote]

I agree, which is why for them, you have to implement some kind of program to explain to them how to manage their money, since while it’s a large gob of money, it must last for the rest of their lives. It’s easy to go Nelson Muntz and “ha ha” at the athletes and celebs who squandered away their riches, but what I’d like to see is for them to actually take ownership of their resources and find folks who can help them maximize and grow those resources. You had mentioned unscrupulous accountants etc., but I actually think it’s to the benefit of most accountants and tax/securities advisers to be honest since they need to grow that cash in order to make a larger sustained commission off of it. But you’re definitely right, money management doesn’t happen unless the individual has the right attitude about it.

[quote name=josh]Is Tebow not very good? Maybe I don’t want to open this can of worms.[/quote]That depends on whether or not you like your QB to have the ability to throw the ball.

[quote name=Rice Cube]Nice snark.

I often wonder why money management isn’t taught in high school as an offshoot of economics. High school is when most kids get their first jobs, and they need to prep for college when they will also hold jobs and will have to fend for themselves in many ways for the first time in their lives. Just seems like an important part of the curriculum whether or not they have an allowance, a job, or both.[/quote]There are some who have no clue about how to manage their money, but MOST people have an idea even at a young age. Most are going to waste some money, but not piss millions away.

So I don’t know about teaching this in high school. If you can spot the idiots who are capable of wasting millions like that, then yeah, but I don’t really want high schools wasting time teaching something most already know.

MO, I don’t believe you’d have pissed that money away. I think it’s easy to say that you would, but that’s a LOT of fucking money. You’re way too smart to have done that. Might you piss thousands or even a million away? Sure. I’d expect you to, but not that much money.

[quote name=Rice Cube]Yeah, I think it’s a societal/behavioral thing that causes people to have poor money management skills (myself included) so these stories of rich athletes going broke are sad but not completely unexpected.[/quote]I really don’t think we can compare a group of people making $40,000 per year to someone making the kind of money he did. It’s apples and oranges. When you’re on a limited income it’s a lot easier to go into debt because the things you think are necessary require it. But there’s nothing that is necessary that could cause someone like McCalister to go into debt. I know it happens, but it takes effort to mismanage your money that poorly. You almost have to try.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]That depends on whether or not you like your QB to have the ability to throw the ball.[/quote]
Why is he so reticent to becoming a tight end or a running back? Tebow has to know that he would be more valuable as a playmaker some other way as opposed to rotting on the bench as the third QB.

[quote name=Rice Cube]Why is he so reticent to becoming a tight end or a running back? Tebow has to know that he would be more valuable as a playmaker some other way as opposed to rotting on the bench as the third QB.[/quote]Because contrary to popular belief, Tebow is not the team player everyone would believe. He’s a petulant twat who uses his faith as a shield and meanwhile refuses to 1.) change his inept throwing style and 2.) switch positions. There’s a couple beat writers in Denver who’ve been saying this for a while and The Score has interviewed at least one of them a couple times. Tebow has a very carefully crafted public image that obfuscates a lot of inability to be taught and selfishness, at least according to these guys. Maybe they’re making it up, I don’t know. What I do know is that he threw a fit in training camp when he lsot his spot first to Orton and then to Quinn, and that when last seen on the field, he was still throwing jump passes and calling his own number on short-yardage plays.

[quote name=mb21]In other words, he’s a professional athlete. (dying laughing)[/quote](dying laughing), pretty much.

[quote name=Rice Cube]It seems silly to throw a fit after losing his spot when he’s the one who sucks.[/quote]Exactly. I mean, you get outplayed by Brady Quinn, that’s not injustice, that’s an indication you might want to polish up the resumé. (dying laughing)

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]The crazy thing is, if he’d take a positional switch to FB or TE, he’s got the potential to be a Pro-Bowl-type player for a few years. He runs well, is bull strong, and never quits on a play. He just won’t give up on being a QB even though he’s terrible at it.[/quote]
It’s an ego thing. I recall Eric Crouch was drafted and they wanted to convert him to a receiver or something and rather than give up QB, he retired and eventually wound up in the CFL. It’s like they have a brain block or something. Wouldn’t you rather get paid tons to do something else than to sit on the bench and earn a fraction of what you could be worth?

[quote name=Rice Cube]It’s an ego thing. I recall Eric Crouch was drafted and they wanted to convert him to a receiver or something and rather than give up QB, he retired and eventually wound up in the CFL. It’s like they have a brain block or something. Wouldn’t you rather get paid tons to do something else than to sit on the bench and earn a fraction of what you could be worth?[/quote]The QB gets the homecoming queen. Don’t you fools know anything?

[quote name=Aisle424]I think they wanted Crouch to be a safety, so switching from offense to defense might have been something he felt he could fail at a lot more than if he stuck at QB (where he thought he knew what he was doing). I know guys jump from offense to defense and vice versa sometimes, but I think I can understand a little more why someone would stick to their guns than do something totally new.[/quote]No, the Rams wanted Crouch to be a WR, but he had a horrific preseason injury that resulted in internal bleeding in his knee and never played. He eventually moved to NFL Europe and was then converted to safety.

Tommy Frazier ended up in Canada too. The only one who was more of a traditional QB is the one that died in the plane crash. Brooks Berringer or something like that?

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]He’s a petulant twat who uses his faith as a shield and meanwhile refuses to 1.) change his inept throwing style and 2.) switch positions. There’s a couple beat writers in Denver who’ve been saying this for a while and The Score has interviewed at least one of them a couple times. [/quote]
To play jesus’s advocate, my guess is #1 is much easier said than done. I have never understand spending a high draft pick on someone who’s success will be completely predicated on overhauling their throwing motion. David Carr and Vince Young are other examples of this. As to #2, staying at quarterback is probably the smartest thing he could do, career-wise. No way in hell would I switch spots as long as even a single team was willing to give me a shot at qb.

Lineup:
Castro-SS

Barney- 2B

Ramirez- 3B

Pena- 1B

LaHair- LF

Byrd-CF

Colvin- RF

Facepalm (because he only has a palm)-C

Wells-P

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]
As to the second point, he’ll never make it as a QB. He’s currently with the only team willing to draft him as a QB, and after witnessing hsi failure there, no one else is going to; he needs to switch of he wants a career. If he stays a QB, I don’t expect him to finish out his rookie contract.[/quote]
I don’t think he will “make it” either, but I could see a ten year career as a backup/ change of pace type. That, frankly, is the best possible path as an NFLer (when taking into account long term health effects). I suspect he would be quickly chewed up and spit out at running back or tight end.

[quote name=GW]I don’t think he will “make it” either, but I could see a ten year career as a backup/ change of pace type. That, frankly, is the best possible path as an NFLer (when taking into account long term health effects). I suspect he would be quickly chewed up and spit out at running back or tight end.[/quote]I don’t think so, at all. He already shown that in his limited time at QB. The guy can run the fucking ball. He just can’t throw the fucking ball. He’s got no shot as a backup QB in this league.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]This.

The guy could be like Alstott if he would just recognize that jump tosses don’t cut it in the NFL.[/quote]Agreed.

I was hoping for 90 BB for Pena, but that home run is cool too.

[quote name=melissa]It’s sad for the child and his mother. I’m skeptical that the guy is even broke. Seems like he’s looking to get out of child support payments. I also find it curious that he left the mother and quit playing football right after she became pregnant. Unless he was a gambler, drug user or some other kind of habitual spender it would be hard for him to have spent all of that money without having any assets. It doesn’t say he was ripped off by a business partner, common amongst athletes and entertainers, so I’m skeptical as to where the money went.[/quote]

He might have had a posse *shrug*

new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/starlin-castro-and-200-hits-in-season.html