Offseason Preview: Trade Candidates

In News And Rumors by dmick89Leave a Comment

Without even knowing what the Cubs general plan is going to be this offseason, it’s very difficult to look ahead to the offseason with any confidence of what they may do. They could decide to go all in and go after guys like Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder and CC Sabathia. They could pass on all of them and stand pat with what they currently have. They could trade a bunch of players and begin a rebuilding process. I’m more inclined to think that they’re more likely to trade a bunch of the veterans than they are to go all in and try to contend next year.

The new GM isn’t going to come out and just say that the Cubs won’t be contenders for a few years. That kind of honesty is rare in sports. Not to mention the uncertainty. Bad teams can contend and have and will continue to do so. Don’t be surprised to hear the GM talk about a 5-year plan, which is about what it’s going to take to rebuild the Cubs farm system and begin to produce the talent necessary to contend. At that point they can fill the holes with expensive free agents.

If that is the direction the organization is heading, I figured it might be worth taking a look at the most obvious candidates to be traded. All players are tradable, but some are more likely to be traded and help accomplish a goal than others. I’ve reached the conclusion that this is what the Cubs will do. I may be wrong and if I find out then I’ll have to think differently, but for now I’m going with this.

The first thing I want to add is that teams don’t have to have a fire sale in order to get better down the road. There are two ways that teams can add talent: trading players and signing players. Trading players subtracts some talent, usually at the big league level in favor of potential talent down the road. Trading is also done for the exact opposite reason (trade potential for production now). Signing a player only adds talent. The Cubs got a good start on that this past summer when they spent more than $20 million on amateur free agents. But if the plan is to contend down the road, some players are more useful for the young talent they can bring in a trade. Not all players will bring much in return, but are still candidates.

The list:

Matt Garza
Geovany Soto
Sean Marshall
Carlos Marmol
Ryan Dempster
Randy Wells
Jeff Baker
Blake DeWitt
Marlon Byrd
Alfonso Soriano
Carlos Zambrano
Starlin Castro

You may be surprised by the last player in that group, and I admit that it would be surprising to see Castro traded, but if the Cubs do go through a 5-year rebuilding plan, Castro is going to be very expensive and either on the verge of free agency or already a free agent. He also could bring more talent in return than most of them combined. Castro’s 2012 season will be his last at league minimum and then he has 4 years of arbitration as he’ll almost certainly be a super-two. He does have 5 years of club control left so he’s more like a borderline candidate.

Some of these players are less likely to be traded than others. Would Ryan Dempster accept a trade if he’s told by management that the team will be rebuilding? Only Ryan Dempster knows that, but Chicago is important to him becasue of his family. I would think it’s more likely Dempster would accept a trade if told the team would rebuild, but I’m not sure if that means a trade is more likely than not. Dempster has been in the league for 10 years and 5 with the Cubs so he has 10 and 5 rights (no trade rights).

The same is true for Soriano and Zambrano. People will talk a lot about the no-trade clauses the Cubs have given out, but at this point they’re irrelevant. They have the no-trade clause because of service time and length of employment by one team. Soriano, Zambrano and Dempster can all reject trades. It’s entirely up to them if they want to accept a trade and there’s nothing the Cubs can do about that.

Matt Garza, in my opinion, is the most likely player of decent value traded by the Cubs this offseason. He has 2 years of club control left and although he’s arbitration eligible each year and therefore more expensive than some of the others, he’s also the most valuable player listed there not named Starlin Castro. In terms of pure value (disregarding salary), Garza is the most valuable of them all.

When you look back at what the Cubs gave up to acquire him, it’s quite likely they would receive more than they gave up last offseason. Not only is Garza a better pitcher now, but the Cubs also got him for relatively little. The 5 players traded makes it sound like a lot more, but once Chris Archer struggled this season the deal looked a hell of a lot better. Considering the scouts opinions on Archer, it probably will remain that way.

I think there’s a very good chance that Soto is gone. I probably should have talked about him before Garza as I think Soto is traded regardless of what the Cubs intend to do next year or in the future.  After Soto’s 2008 breakout season in which he was worth 4.1 rWAR, he’s combined to be worth 5.1 rWAR over the last 3 seasons. His walk percentage is at a career low and under 10% and his strikeout percentage is at a career high at 26.3%. He’d been between 19 and 21% the other 3 full seasons. His walk rate was 11% in 2008, 12.8% in 2009 and 16% in 2010. He’s absolutely horrible on the bases and over his career his fielding runs is below average.

I think Soto is a better player than most people do, but he’s getting older and more expensive and probably isn’t going to be a significant part of the next Cubs team that contends. It also helps that the Cubs have Welington Castillo who can step in to replace Soto. It’s not likely he’d replace Soto’s production, but if the team is rebuilding that’s not necessary.

Sean Marshall has 1 year left of club control while Marmol has 2 more years. I think Marshall has made a strong case at this point that he is the better reliever. At least I’m certain of it. He’s certainly more reliable and he makes less money than Marmol. If the Cubs are going through a 5-year plan, there’s little reason to keep both of them and there may be little reason to keep either. Marshall will bring more in a trade, but if the Cubs keep one of them I’d prefer it be Marshall.

Jeff Baker and Blake DeWitt will probably draw some interest from various teams looking to solidify their bench. I don’t think the Cubs trade both of them as they still have to field a team next year, but I’d say at least 1 of them is gone. Neither will bring much in return, but neither are going to be on the next contending Cubs team.

Randy Wells is interesting and I’m going to write more about him in the next week or so. He’s not so valuable that you can’t trade him, but his valuable that the Cubs may get something useful in return. The Cubs haven’t been sold on Wells as a starter since his breakout seasons. Each of the last 2 years the Cubs have hinted that he may be moved to the bullpen. That there tells us there’s a strong chance he’d be traded.

Marlon Byrd is still a valuable player. His rWAR this year is 1.9 and his fWAR is 2.1. He’ll be paid only $6.5 million in 2012, which is the final year of his contract. He’ll easily be worth the money and probably a little more. If the Cubs are confident in either acquiring a cheaper outfielder or bringing Brett Jackson up (or even going with Tony Campana to start the season) there’s a decent chance the Cubs trade Byrd. They’ll get something in return. He’s not a great player and never has, but he’s still a regular player and is about league average.

The Cubs would love to trade Alfonso Soriano and as Tom Ricketts even said, it’s hard to imagine Carlos Zambrano ever returning to the Cubs. Both are 10 and 5 players as I said above so they can reject any trade. Zambrano has sounded more than willing to accept a trade if the Cubs don’t want him and based on Soriano’s comments he’d accept one too. The question is how much money will the Cubs have to send along?

Soriano has 3 years and $54 million left on his contract while Zambrano will be in the final year of his deal and be paid $18 million. I’d be very surprised if any team paid more than $1-2 million for Zambrano so that’s at least $16 million being spent to make him go away. The hope would be that you get a valuable prospect in the trade by sending along so much money. The same is true for Soriano though, in my opinion, it’s going to be even harder to trade him than Zambrano. The Cubs made it clear at the deadline they’d eat a huge chunk of his remaining contract and not one team was the least bit interested. If we look at Soriano’s rWAR it’s kind of funny because the bulk of his value this year has been defensively. I don’t buy it and I don’t think many of you buy it either. I certainly don’t think any 1 of the other 29 teams is going to buy it. if Soriano is traded, it’s most likely to an American League team where he can DH. Moving to the AL would only further suppress his numbers when you consider the negative impact not playing the field has on a hitter.

I don’t think either of these guys return. I think the Cubs pay off some team to take Zambrano and get something interesting in return. I think the Cubs just cut their losses with Soriano and release him.

I don’t have any idea if some, none or all of these players will be traded, but it seems to me they’re the most likely players traded. This is, as I’ve said, partly because I expect the Cubs to rebuild for the future. I don’t think contending in the next few years is a top priority.


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  1. mb21

    It was difficult trying to figure out the nicknames for Randy Wells and Welington Castillo. Wellsy was easy, but what about Castillo? I almost went with Yo.

    Bitch!

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  2. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]It was difficult trying to figure out the nicknames for Randy Wells and Welington Castillo. Wellsy was easy, but what about Castillo? I almost went with Yo.

    Bitch![/quote]
    I think it’s Beefy

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  3. ACT

    Truth be told, lots of managers have goofy nicknames for their players (Girardi, e.g.), so I’m not sure why Q gets singled out here.

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  4. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]I think Q once called Welington Castillo “Cassie” when he was sent down to AAA. Mostly, he calls him “Welly,” I think.[/quote]He uses Cassie for Castro.

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  5. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]Truth be told, lots of managers have goofy nicknames for their players (Girardi, e.g.), so I’m not sure why Q gets singled out here.[/quote]Because I’m a Cubs fan. I agree they all have stupid nicknames these days, but I don’t pay attention to the nicknames other managers have. So I make fun of Quade’s. I’m sure if I paid attention to what the manager for the Padres called his players, I’d make fun of him.

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  6. WaLi

    Marlon Byrd is still a valuable player. His rWAR this year is 1.9 and his fWAR is 2.1. He’ll be paid only $6.5 million in 2012, which is the final year of his contract. He’ll easily be worth the money and probably a little more. If the Cubs are confident in either acquiring a cheaper outfielder or bringing Brett Jackson up (or even going with Tony Campana to start the season) there’s a decent chance the Cubs trade Marmol

    Shouldn’t that say Byrd?

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  7. Rice Cube

    I think it’d be cool for a manager to give his players nicknames that weren’t derivative of their actual names. Like “Jughead” or “Dirt Merchant”.

    Related to this post, wouldn’t it be kind of strange for the Cubs to hire Andrew Friedman and for Friedman’s first move be a Garza trade? Purely speculation here, but seeing Matt Garza at the top of the list made me think of that.

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  8. mb21

    Dempster, who has spent the last eight seasons of his career in Chicago, has a player option for the 2012 season, but has yet to commit beyond Wednesday’s start — possibly due to the flux in the Cubs’ front office. Nevertheless, should it be Dempster’s last day with the Cubs, he has left his mark on his teammates and the clubhouse. — http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_09_28_chnmlb_sdnmlb_1&mode=preview&vkey=preview_web_away&c_id=chc&partnerId=rss_chc

    I never really thought about Dempster not exercising that option, but maybe we should. If he exercises his option he’ll earn $14 million next year. He’s coming off a down season in terms of allowing runs, but most of his other stats are right in line with what he’s done in the past and what’s been expected of him. What type of contract could Dempster get on the free agent market? CC Sabathia can opt out and he’d easily be the best starter available. After him you’ve got Roy Oswalt and the Phillies have a $16 million club option. Then there’s Mark Buerhle. I’m not sure anyone else is better than Dempster though I didn’t look through the list that closely.

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  9. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Rice Cube][/quote]I’ve been looking at that picture off and on the past half hour and I can’t actually figure out what Campana was doing there. Maybe I should check the box scores or something, I think this was against the Mets.

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  10. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]I never really thought about Dempster not exercising that option, but maybe we should. If he exercises his option he’ll earn $14 million next year. He’s coming off a down season in terms of allowing runs, but most of his other stats are right in line with what he’s done in the past and what’s been expected of him. What type of contract could Dempster get on the free agent market? CC Sabathia can opt out and he’d easily be the best starter available. After him you’ve got Roy Oswalt and the Phillies have a $16 million club option. Then there’s Mark Buerhle. I’m not sure anyone else is better than Dempster though I didn’t look through the list that closely.[/quote]
    I think the family stuff is why no one is considering Dempster leaving.

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  11. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]I never really thought about Dempster not exercising that option, but maybe we should. If he exercises his option he’ll earn $14 million next year. He’s coming off a down season in terms of allowing runs, but most of his other stats are right in line with what he’s done in the past and what’s been expected of him. What type of contract could Dempster get on the free agent market? CC Sabathia can opt out and he’d easily be the best starter available. After him you’ve got Roy Oswalt and the Phillies have a $16 million club option. Then there’s Mark Buerhle. I’m not sure anyone else is better than Dempster though I didn’t look through the list that closely.[/quote]Pure speculation, but if Mark Buehrle really is done with the White Sox and they don’t put Chris Sale in the rotation, they need to fill a spot and Dempster might just move across the city to stay where his daughter can get care but where they might actually want to give him a multi-year deal if the Cubs don’t want to give that to him…

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  12. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I’ve been looking at that picture off and on the past half hour and I can’t actually figure out what Campana was doing there. Maybe I should check the box scores or something, I think this was against the Mets.[/quote]Okay, derp…I think he was trying to get out of the way of a wild pitch. Campana was only on base once or twice against the Mets during the series in New York and did score a run, but this didn’t look like a run-scoring play.

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  13. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]I think the family stuff is why no one is considering Dempster leaving.[/quote]Yeah, I’ve thought the same thing, but I’m not really sure we should be thinking that way. I know as a family they’re comfortable in Chicago with the doctors they have, but a lot of MLB players (most of the players who have been eligible for free agency) live apart from their family. So I think we should be asking two questions and nether of which we know the answer to. It’s kind of like the whole offseason. (dying laughing)

    I figure the two questions to ask are this:

    Would the family consider moving?
    Would Ryan consider taking a job elsewhere and not uprooting his family? In other words, would he consider a job that doesn’t allow him to spend as much time with his family?

    Who knows?

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  14. ACT

    All four WC teams have excellent pitchers scheduled today, and none faces strong opposition (in terms of opposing pitchers anyway). Should be fun.

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  15. mb21

    [quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]Dempster recently cut the asking price of his house that’s been for sale for awhile. I’d say that’s a weak indication of a desire to leave, except he also owns a bigger, more expensive house down the block (dying laughing)

    http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-09-09/classified/ct-mre-0911-elite-street-20110909_1_mansion-lower-level-media-room-executive%5B/quote%5DInteresting. Probably doesn’t mean much, but I’m not as convinced as I was earlier today that Dempster is staying put.

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  16. Mucker

    [quote name=ACT]Is this the only country where it’s illegal for 19-year-olds to drink?[/quote]I think so. I would like to understand why it changed from 18 to 21 back in the late 70s early 80s. Does anybody know if it was changed because of safety concerns? Seems to me to be the only realy logical explanation.

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  17. Mish

    [quote name=Mucker]I think so. I would like to understand why it changed from 18 to 21 back in the late 70s early 80s. Does anybody know if it was changed because of safety concerns? Seems to me to be the only realy logical explanation.[/quote]
    So college campuses can raise more revenue, duh.

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  18. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Aisle424]http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2011/09/milton-bradley-arrested-dodgers-rangers.html[/quote]At least Z only beats up teammates and not women.

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  19. binky

    [quote name=ACT]Is this the only country where it’s illegal for 19-year-olds to drink?[/quote]In several Muslim-themed countries, drinking is illegal for everyone.

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  20. GBTS

    [quote name=Mucker]I think so. I would like to understand why it changed from 18 to 21 back in the late 70s early 80s. Does anybody know if it was changed because of safety concerns? Seems to me to be the only realy logical explanation.[/quote]If states didn’t raise their drinking age to 21, they lost their federal highway funding.

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  21. Rice Cube

    I’m surprised you guys didn’t see the Ryan Braun ITPHR-turned-TOOTBLAN before now. That was all over the interwebs as the LUL of the day right after it happened.

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  22. Mish

    [quote name=Rice Cube]The Joe Maddon IBB before the triple play has been termed a “good decision” by MLB.com…[/quote]
    The fallacy that good results necessarily imply good decisions…

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  23. Mish

    If anyone saw my tweet yesterday, I missed the triple play because A) I couldn’t watch the Yankees put up a big inning and B) I was throwing a fit over the IBB.

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  24. ACT

    [quote name=Rice Cube]The Joe Maddon IBB before the triple play has been termed a “good decision” by MLB.com…[/quote]A significant increase in run expectancy is a small price to pay for the .001% chance of turning a triple play

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  25. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Mish]The fallacy that good results necessarily imply good decisions…[/quote]The ends did not justify the means.

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  26. Aisle424

    [quote name=Mish]The fallacy that good results necessarily imply good decisions…[/quote]I jumped into shark-infested water and found a quarter. Therefore, jumping into shark-infested waters is a good decision.

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  27. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Aisle424]I jumped into shark-infested water and found a quarter. Therefore, jumping into shark-infested waters is a good decision.[/quote]…and thus, verily, a new meme was born.

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  28. ACT

    I can’t say I blame Reyes for his decision to leave the game after a bunt single, leading the league in batting average. Who doesn’t want his name in the record books?

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  29. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]Is this the only country where it’s illegal for 19-year-olds to drink?[/quote]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_drinking_age

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  30. mb21

    [quote name=GBTS]If states didn’t raise their drinking age to 21, they lost their federal highway funding.[/quote]Yeah, but other than drinking and driving, was the federal law set at 21 for any other reason? I don’t remember, but I didn’t read the wiki link ACT posted. I seem to recall at the time it was entirely about drinking and driving. I was 8-10 years old when the debate was ongoing so maybe I’m wrong, but that’s all I remember.

    Considering how many people were drinking and driving at the time, the law may have made sense, but drinking and driving hasn’t been reduced because people aged 16-21 aren’t legally allowed to drink. It’s been more than 25 years now and it’s one of those laws that will forever be on the books because our government is fucking retarded.

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  31. ACT

    I also don’t get the criticism about Reyes’ decision to bunt. He’s a good bunter, the third baseman was anticipating a bunt, and he showed bunt on the first pitch. It was just a really good bunt. It takes skill; nothing cheap about it.

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  32. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]Ryan Theriot was in 2007 and 2008, but then he became flawed.[/quote]He is the keystone on the right side of the rivalry now.

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  33. Aisle424

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Who isn’t?[/quote]That guy was my freaking hero growing up. I’m still angry he never scored in the Super Bowl after he carried that team for years. The best part was that he seemed like such a great guy. To know he was in that much physical and emotional pain all along is just depressing as hell.

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  34. mb21

    [quote name=Rice Cube]He is the keystone on the right side of the rivalry now.[/quote]The funny thing about Theriot being a Cardinal that I think a lot of Cubs fans missed is that Theriot, in just one year with the Cardinals, had a significantly higher chance of winning a World Series than if he played for 20 years on the Cubs.

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  35. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]The funny thing about Theriot being a Cardinal that I think a lot of Cubs fans missed is that Theriot, in just one year with the Cardinals, had a significantly higher chance of winning a World Series than if he played for 20 years on the Cubs.[/quote]He can’t let Mike Fontenot have all the glory.

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  36. WenningtonsGorillaCock

    As if appearing briefly in Catching Hell wasn’t surreal enough, the Hall of Fame just asked my dad if they could add his book to their permanent collection. My old man is hall of famer! (dying laughing)

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  37. Aisle424

    [quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]As if appearing briefly in Catching Hell wasn’t surreal enough, the Hall of Fame just asked my dad if they could add his book to their permanent collection. My old man is hall of famer! (dying laughing)[/quote]He should decline until Buck O’Neill is added.

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  38. GBTS

    [quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]As if appearing briefly in Catching Hell wasn’t surreal enough, the Hall of Fame just asked my dad if they could add his book to their permanent collection. My old man is hall of famer! (dying laughing)[/quote]I sincerely hope at no point did he stay up late writing this with the aid of coffee. That’s not how Twain did it.

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  39. binky

    I keep hearing that Ozzie is going to inject “passion” into Miami’s team. Also, Miami’s new stadium is in Little Havana. Is their new marketing push to explicitly try to target the Hispanic population to get new fans? That’s not a bad idea, actually.

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  40. Rice Cube

    Hypothetically, if Dempster doesn’t pick up the player option and goes free agent, would you offer arbitration? I think he’s Type A.

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  41. GBTS

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Hypothetically, if Dempster doesn’t pick up the player option and goes free agent, would you offer arbitration? I think he’s Type A.[/quote]I think it definitely depends on how funny you think he’ll be next season.

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  42. binky

    [quote name=GBTS]I think it definitely depends on how funny you think he’ll be next season.[/quote]Someone’s going to need a sense of humor next year.

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  43. WenningtonsGorillaCock

    [quote name=GBTS]I sincerely hope at no point did he stay up late writing this with the aid of coffee. That’s not how Twain did it.[/quote]No way, just cocaine and alcohol.

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  44. Rice Cube

    [quote name=GBTS]I think it definitely depends on how funny you think he’ll be next season.[/quote]I think he can bring about 3-4 DLAR ((dying laughing) above replacement) but that may depend on how you calculate the defensive component.

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  45. WenningtonsGorillaCock

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I think he can bring about 3-4 (DL)AR ((dying laughing) above replacement) but that may depend on how you calculate the defensive component.[/quote].

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  46. ACT

    Not that I’m paying too much attentention to the Cubs game tonight, but here’s the lineup:

    Castro SS
    DeWitt 2B
    Ramirez 3B
    Baker 1B
    Johnson LF
    Montanez RF
    Campana CF
    Hill C
    Dempster P

    Slightly better than Monday’s lineup, I suppose.

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  47. ACT

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Yankees-Rays anyone?[/quote]Tough choice, but I think I’m going with Sox/O’s for the time being. If other games get interesting, I may switch.

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