Obstructed View Season Predictions

In Projections by myles55 Comments

Our long national nightmare is finally over! The Cubs play today at 1:35 ET, and at around 5:00 ET I will be drunk and the Cubs will be a game out of first place. Now that the season is here, I rounded up all of our contributors and asked around for predictions. Without further ado, let me present them!

  Berselius dmick89 AndCounting Josh GW Myles Aisley
NLC Reds Reds Reds Brewers Cardinals Reds Reds
NLE Nationals Nationals Braves Nationals Braves Nationals Braves
NLW Dodgers Giants Dodgers Dodgers Dodgers Dodgers Giants
WC1 Braves Cardinals Giants Cardinals Nationals Giants Nationals
WC2 Cardinals Dodgers Nationals Braves Reds Braves Dodgers
ALC Tigers Tigers Royals Tigers Tigers Tigers Tigers
ALE Rays Jays Jays Rays Jays Rays Rays
ALW Angels Rangers Athletics Rangers Rangers Angels Angels
WC1 Rangers Rays  Angels Yankees Angels Jays Rangers
WC2 Jays Angels Tigers Angels Rays Athletics Jays
NL Champ Nationals Cardinals Nationals Brewers Dodgers Giants Nationals
AL Champ Angels Tigers Royals Vacant Tigers Rays Tigers
WS Angels Tigers Royals Brewers Tigers Rays Nationals
Cubs Rec 63-99 75-87 77-85 Horrible Vacant 71-91 62-100
NL MVP Votto Votto Posey Harper Stanton McCutchen Heyward
AL MVP Trout Cano Longoria Longoria Fielder Trout Trout
NL Cy Kershaw Strasburg Halladay   Kershaw Kershaw Cain
AL Cy Verlander Verlander Verlander Verlander Price Price Price
Cubs' MVP Castro Camp Rizzo Lillibridge Rizzo Sappelt E. Jackson

Aisley's picks are forthcoming, he's busy performing up-to-the-minute analysis. 

Interesting things to note: 

There were no consensus division champions.

7 people chose 6 different WS champs; the only two-time selection was the Tigers. 

Verlander had 4 votes for Cy, Price had 3. Kershaw had 3 votes, Strasburg, Cain and Halladay one each.

The consensus (so far) playoff teams: Nationals, Dodgers, Tigers, Angels.

No MVP candidate had more than 3 votes (Trout). Longoria and Votto had 2.

Only Josh and Aisley has an NL team winning the WS.

Resident Optimist dmick89 is only second highest on the Cubs this year; AndCounting thinks the Cubs are winning 77 games!!!

 

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  3. dmick89

    As for Andrus contract, I added this at the end of last thread…

    Say there’s a win value of $6 million right now. Based on some recent contracts, that is probably true. Not to mention, Matt Swartz would probably say it’s considerably higher so we’ll go with $6 million and 7.5% inflation.

    Year	       Dollars
2013	$6 
2014	$6.45 
2015	$6.93 
2016	$7.45 
2017	$8.01 
2018	$8.61 
2019	$9.26 
2020	$9.95 
2021	$10.70 
2022	$11.50 
Average	$8.488

    The Rangers are paying for 15.4 wins if those figures are correct.

    Let’s go with 5% inflation and $5.5 million win value right now.

    Year	       Dollars
2013	$5.5 
2014	$5.78 
2015	$6.06 
2016	$6.37 
2017	$6.69 
2018	$7.02 
2019	$7.37 
2020	$7.74 
2021	$8.13 
2022	$8.53 
Average	$6.918

    That would be 19 wins.

    So, not a bad contract at all. I don’t know if Andrus will end up being worth 15-19 wins. Could be more or less, but not as bad as it first looked.

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  6. GBTS

    Call me old school, but if I’m locking up a hitter for a decade and over $100 million, I’d first prefer he be able to actually hit baseballs, then I would factor in elite baserunning and defense after that.

    Crazy, I know.

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  7. GBTS

    But the future for Texas is pretty bleak at shortstop, so I understand why they had to lock up a career. 313 WOBA hitter for the next decade while he was still under contract.

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  8. dmick89

    @ GBTS:
    The first thing you have to consider is that it’s not 2001 anymore. The contract begins in 2015 and ends in 2022. The win value right now is anywhere between $5.5 million and $7.5 million. By the time the contact begins, it will of course be higher and only increase after that.

    When you do the math, it’s very clear the Rangers aren’t paying for a shitload of wins that he can’t produce. I don’t know if he will or not, but based on current win values and expected inflation, the Rangers are only paying for anywhere between 13 to 19 wins. He has 12-14 already in 4 years.

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  10. dmick89

    dmick89 wrote:

    The first thing you have to consider is that it’s not 2001 anymore.

    And that we’re not evaluating players based on old ideas, which is good, because one of the old ideas was that 3-run home runs were rally killers.

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  11. Author
    Myles

    GBTS wrote:

    But the future for Texas is pretty bleak at shortstop, so I understand why they had to lock up a career. 313 WOBA hitter for the next decade while he was still under contract.

    Let’s be fair. Andrus is an elite baserunner and defender who was a career .313 wOBA when the league average SS has a wOBA of .300. They also now cost-control his 26-34 seasons, which should coincide with the meat of his career. I don’t love the contract but it’s not terrible.

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  13. dmick89 
    Year	Dollars
2013	$6.8 
2014	$7.28 
2015	$7.83 
2016	$8.41 
2017	$9.04 
2018	$9.72 
2019	$10.45 
2020	$11.24 
2021	$12.08 
2022	$12.98 
Average	$9.581

    That’s based on Matt Swartz dollars per win last season plus 7.5% annually. Using this, Rangers are paying for 13.5 wins. If you start at 5.5 you get 15.4. If you start at $6 million you get 19.

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  15. Author
    Myles

    I will say this: how good does the Castro extension look now?
    Andrus thru age-23: 2595 PA, .274/.342/.352
    Castro thru age-22: 1912 PA, .297/.336/.425

    Andrus: 10 years, 131 million guaranteed
    Castro: 8 years, 69 million guaranteed

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  16. GBTS

    I see what your saying MB, perhaps I am jumping the gun. I’m just pretty hesitant to doling out six figure contracts to guys who can’t hit. I think we’ve seen some big examples in recent years that defense and baserunning aren’t guaranteed forever.

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  17. dmick89

    Myles wrote:

    I don’t love the contract but it’s not terrible.

    Agreed. It’s not one to jump up and down about, but it’s far from terrible. $100 contracts just ain’t what they were a decade ago. Shit’s more expensive today.

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  19. dmick89

    @ Myles:
    But Andrus was closer to reaching free agency than Castro was. That’s important to consider. Still, you’ve got to give the edge to Castro’s contract though it’s also important to point out the league difference too. There’s genuine concern among some AL executives that NL players are going to perform considerably worse in the AL. It’s why we hear about them having already proven they can play in the AL or the AL East. I’d rather have Castro’s contract, but I don’t know whether or not he’s better or will be better than Andrus. He certainly hasn’t to this point, but has more offensive upside than Andrus.

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  20. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ dmick89:

    Didn’t you predict this when the new CBA was ratified? That teams would start shifting what used to be FA dollars towards long term extensions for young, cost-controlled stars?

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  22. Author
    Myles

    dmick89 wrote:

    @ Myles:
    But Andrus was closer to reaching free agency than Castro was. That’s important to consider. Still, you’ve got to give the edge to Castro’s contract though it’s also important to point out the league difference too. There’s genuine concern among some AL executives that NL players are going to perform considerably worse in the AL. It’s why we hear about them having already proven they can play in the AL or the AL East. I’d rather have Castro’s contract, but I don’t know whether or not he’s better or will be better than Andrus. He certainly hasn’t to this point, but has more offensive upside than Andrus.

    Very true, but even if you chop off the arb years on Castro’s contract you’ve got something in the realm of 5/53. I know that’s not how it works, but it still illustrates how good a deal Castro can be. He gets paid 9 million in his age-27 year, when there is an outside chance he’s getting the odd MVP-vote (not from a Chicago homer).

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  25. dmick89

    GBTS wrote:

    I think we’ve seen some big examples in recent years that defense and baserunning aren’t guaranteed forever.

    Neither is offense.

    I just think the discussion should be about whether or not Andrus can provide what the Rangers are paying him (13-19 wins). If he can be reasonably expected to provide that over 10 years then it’s not a bad contract. If we can only expect him to provide 2 to 3 wins over 10 years then it is.

    Based on his past production, it’s definitely not unreasonable. His average projection for 2013 is about 4 WAR. There’s not been any evidence to show that players who rely on baserunning and defense age differently, except possibly better than others.

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  27. josh

    I think the contract for Andrus will be okay to slightly poor by the end. They probably figure they have enough bats that they can spend on defense. And the home crowd likes him.

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  28. SVB

    These predictions seem pretty valid*, so clearly there will be at least one that fails miserably. Maybe all the love of the Reds or Jays.

    *Except the guy picking the Brewers. Pretty sure that requires some explanation from Josh. Though I like his faith in an NL World Series winner. (dying laughing)

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  29. josh

    My NL Cy Young pick was based on a complete ignorance of current major league pitchers. Same with my AL Cy Young pick.

    I picked the Brewers because whatever.

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  30. dmick89

    Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

    @ dmick89:
    Didn’t you predict this when the new CBA was ratified? That teams would start shifting what used to be FA dollars towards long term extensions for young, cost-controlled stars?

    I wasn’t the only one (not even the only one around here). I think it was fairly clear what the MLB players were trying to achieve with the new CBA (more money for them, less for amateurs). Since teams couldn’t stockpile amateur talent, that left with them the option to stockpile their own young talent, which meant long-term contracts for pre-free agency players.

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  32. dmick89

    Myles wrote:

    Very true, but even if you chop off the arb years on Castro’s contract you’ve got something in the realm of 5/53. I know that’s not how it works, but it still illustrates how good a deal Castro can be. He gets paid 9 million in his age-27 year, when there is an outside chance he’s getting the odd MVP-vote (not from a Chicago homer).

    I don’t disagree. One other consideration is that Andrus will stick at SS for some time. Castro’s defense seemed to be improved a year ago, but it’s still been well below average in his career. He’ll almost certainly move off SS before Andrus.

    I’d much rather have the Castro contract than the Andrus one though.

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  34. GBTS

    dmick89 wrote:

    Neither is offense.
    I just think the discussion should be about whether or not Andrus can provide what the Rangers are paying him (13-19 wins).

    I totally agree with this, it’s just that my inclination (albeit with zero data in front of me) is that guys whose value is heavily determinant on range/speed are less likely to provide predictable value into their 30s than guys who can occasionally hit a ball over the fence. Hence my gut reaction that this is a bad deal.

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  37. dmick89

    @ GBTS:
    I had the same thought about speed and I think there are certain reasons to be concerned, but it’s actually the opposite: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/does_speed_age_better/

    it works out to roughly -0.5 wins per season for good players and -0.4 wins per season for good speedy players.

    I would assume that since speed and defense often compliment one another that it’s true of great defenders too.

    Plus, keep in mind we’re talking about an age in which pitchers are getting record amounts of money. Kershaw will probably set a new record.

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  39. dmick89

    With speed players, I think how a leg injury could fuck them over. It’s without a doubt true. On the other hand, with power players, a wrist injury is equally bad (probably even more so since a lot of power players have little else to fall back on). This is probably why, overall, the speedy or more athletic type players age better than others.

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  41. dmick89

    Everything else said, I wouldn’t put a single dollar on Andrus being worth his contract in the end. Then again, I wouldn’t do that with Castro either. Or Verlander or anyone else who has signed ridiculous contracts. There’s just too much that can wrong over that many years. But whether or not I’d put any money on it is beside the point. MLB teams have to put money on it or they don’t get the players. So the question isn’t about whether you’d put any money on it. It’s about how much and I don’t think the Andrus contract is a bad one.

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  49. josh

    Len Kasper tweeted that he hoped Samardzija would take a “step forward” this year. I’m not sure what more we can really expect from the guy. He’s not going to morph into Justin Verlander.

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