Obstructed View Projections Contest Results

In Projections, Site by dmick8968 Comments

Prior to the start of the season we set up an over/under projections contest. It was rather extensive so fewer people than we'd hoped entered the contest. Plus, there aren't all that many people who are dying to have an Obstructed View t-shirt. There just aren't. Really, trust us.

It was a long survey. We used 11 position players and 7 pitchers. Kerry Wood has since been removed due to his retirement so we had a total of 17 players and 3 statistics for each player.

Of the 51 fields, not including the tie-breaker becasue it wasn't necessary, 13 of the 22 who completed it predicted more than half correct, but only 1 person was over 28. Mark Ammer ran away with it as he predicted 33 of them correct. So even if we left Kerry Wood in there, he could not have lost.

Projectjions are more or less a baseline of talent, which means it's the average production we can expect from the player. It's interesting that our group average was exactly 25.5, or half of the predictions being correct.

When I was sorting through the totals I was actually curious if we were better able to project, at least in the form of an over/under, certain players. I haven't looked into that yet, but will sometime. I did notice that a couple of the returning players we predicted correctly almost across the board while new players were more mixed. I wouldn't guarantee that is correct, but I got that impression.

This isn't too surprising either as we know a little more about the players than a projection system can include since we're more familiar with how they'll be used and their current inury status.

I may or may not dig further into our predictions. The point total for all who entered the contest is below. For the couple of people that either do not regularly comment here or we're unaware of what name they use, we used the initials of their real name.

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  4. mb21

    They need to fix this rule. You can’t take that away. I’m fine with an infield fly rule, but they need to tweak it to ensure something like this doesn’t happen again.

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  7. mb21

    I wouldn’t do what many of these fans did, but I don’t really have a problem with it. That was a horrible call and maybe a season changing one.

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  13. mb21

    II’m pretty sure nobody was ejected.

    Apparently one part of the rule is that the ump has to signal infield fly immediately, but he signaled it very late here.

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  15. Rice Cube

    That still doesn’t make sense though if it was that far out of the infield, the runners would’ve been partway off the base so they could advance if the fielders fucked up.

    I heard the game is under protest now.

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  25. Rizzo the Rat

    @ josh:
    Yes, but the behavior of Braves fans is making me want the Cardinals to win (a feat previously believed to be impossible).

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  26. mb21

    @ josh:
    You can’t protest judgment calls so what’s being protested is that the umpire signaled infield fly too late. According to the rules it needs to be done immediately, but what does immediately mean? I highly doubt MLB is going to invalidate the very first playoff game of the 2012 season, but they should.

    If they side with the Braves, it would be played from that point. Whether or not it would be bases loaded and 1 out or 1st and 2nd 1 out I don’t know.

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  27. GBTS

    I just literally have no idea how an umpire can make that call. None whatsoever. That is the worst call in baseball history. That’s 1000 times worse than missing an out/safe call. The infield fly rule is based in equity. As in a team can’t intentionally bend the rules to gain an unfair advantage. That’s the sole purpose of the rule. That was an unintentional miscommunication 30 feet into the outfield. Just unconscionable.

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  28. Rodrigo Ramirez

    Is Jeff Baker on the Braves? I could have swore I saw him standing at the top of the dugout. But I also thought he was traded to Detroit?

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  31. Rice Cube

    MLB Rule 2.00, definitions:

    An INFIELD FLY is a fair fly ball (not including a line drive nor an attempted bunt) which can be caught by an infielder with ordinary effort, when first and second, or first, second and third bases are occupied, before two are out. The pitcher, catcher and any outfielder who stations himself in the infield on the play shall be considered infielders for the purpose of this rule.
    When it seems apparent that a batted ball will be an Infield Fly, the umpire shall immediately declare “Infield Fly” for the benefit of the runners. If the ball is near the baselines, the umpire shall declare “Infield Fly, if Fair.”
    The ball is alive and runners may advance at the risk of the ball being caught, or retouch and advance after the ball is touched, the same as on any fly ball. If the hit becomes a foul ball, it is treated the same as any foul.
    If a declared Infield Fly is allowed to fall untouched to the ground, and bounces foul before passing first or third base, it is a foul ball. If a declared Infield Fly falls untouched to the ground outside the baseline, and bounces fair before passing first or third base, it is an Infield Fly.
    Rule 2.00 (Infield Fly) Comment: On the infield fly rule the umpire is to rule whether the ball could ordinarily have been handled by an infielder—not by some arbitrary limitation such as the grass, or the base lines. The umpire must rule also that a ball is an infield fly, even if handled by an outfielder, if, in the umpire’s judgment, the ball could have been as easily handled by an infielder. The infield fly is in no sense to be considered an appeal play. The umpire’s judgment must govern, and the decision should be made immediately.
    When an infield fly rule is called, runners may advance at their own risk. If on an infield fly rule, the infielder intentionally drops a fair ball, the ball remains in play despite the provisions of Rule 6.05 (L). The infield fly rule takes precedence.

    It could not be appealed because it’s a judgment call, but the call was not made immediately. The ball could’ve been caught by Kozma though. That’s the part that probably makes it a valid call.

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  34. mb21

    @ Rice Cube:
    It’s the “immediately” part that gave them reason to protest. I don’t think it will work. No way will MLB allow that to happen.

    I think it’s time that rule be tweaked a bit because this type of call should never happen again.

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  60. Rizzo the Rat

    @ Rice Cube:
    Looks like a lot of people in the comments didn’t bother to read the piece. I agree that we don’t know what would have happened if the IFR hadn’t been called, though.

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  65. mb21

    @ Rizzo the Rat:
    No, we don’t know, but I’ve never seen an infielder just give up on a ball after the umpire called the infield fly rule. It’s possible, but I highly doubt an MLB player heard infield fly rule and just said fuck it, I’m not going to bother catching this shit since it’s already an out.

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