With the 11-1 ass-whipping the Cubs received yesterday, the Cubs fell to 64-82 and guaranteed themselves a losing record. It’s been a rough week, and after a really nice run of baseball, we’ve been thoroughly outclassed by some not-very-good teams (though they aren’t slouches, either). As the 2014 season draws to it’s merciful close, I’d like to reflect on each of our rookies this year (including a not-actually-rookie-but-close), and see if we can dredge up some optimism for 2015.
Pitchers
Kyle Hendricks showed yesterday what will likely be is biggest issue going forward: a propensity to put every single ball in play. Two starts ago, Hendricks didn’t walk or strike out a single batter (and had a brilliant performance; this time, though he issued 7 true outcomes, he still put the ball in play a huge amount of the time (when you are giving up hits, you are necessarily extending the game making walks and strikeouts easier to attain). Yesterday’s disappointment notwithstanding, Hendricks has been very good this year. His FIP this year is 3.30 and his xFIP is 3.96. He has a low BABIP this year (.268) which is NOT typical for his skillset, though the defense behind him is good to great. Considering he was the secondary piece in the Dempster trade (that also brought us Sister Christian Villanueva), he’s been excellent. Hendricks is a #4-#5 for the next 5 years barring the evaporation of his pinpoint accuracy.
Brian Schlitter isn’t technically a rookie (he had 7 games in 2010), but he basically is. He’s been a serviceable generic reliever #5, and he’s under team control until 2019. That being said, he’s not particularly worth keeping on the 40-man roster, as his upside is basically limited to 7th inning dude. Players like Schlitter don’t typically make the 40-man roster of teams like ours (deep with near-MLB impact). I hope he catches on somewhere.
Neil Ramirez is the blade. He’s been excellent this year, though (obviously) he’s a serious regression candidate. It’s not likely he strands runners at a legendary rate, Though his .256 BABIP is more attainable given his filthy skill set. He’s a cheap set-up man for the next half-decade, and as the 3rd piece or so in the Matt Garza trade, that’s a huge win.
Tsuyoshi Wada is just a fringey, up/down sort of player. I wouldn’t trust him penciled in as a starter next year, but I also wouldn’t mind if he was the first or second guy up in AAA if he decides he’d do that next year. He injured his left calf last start and he’ll miss a pass or two through the rotation. I have to wonder if he wouldn’t be an excellent LOOGY, also. He seems to have the stuff that would give same-side hitting nightmares.
Hitters
We all kind of knew this was what would happen to Javier Baez. I’m thoroughly, completely unconcerned. It seems like he can play major-league SS proficiently, and he could be an absolute weapon defensively at 2B. He’s striking out an insane 41.4% of the time, but even then, he’s still hitting the ball hard enough to have a .185 ISO. He’s walking 6.4% of the time, which is slightly encouraging; however, part of that is also the fact that no one is near the zone with him. He’ll figure it out at some point.
Same with Arismendy Alcantara. Though I have no empirical evidence to this effect, it has to take a longer adjustment period for a switch hitter in the majors. I think the OFP for Alcantara is just a 50, so a league-average 2B. That really hasn’t changed in the past 2 or 3 years, so the fact that he isn’t setting the world on fire (and that he doesn’t look like he will ever be more than average) shouldn’t exactly be surprising. Alcantara has suffered fromsome bad BABIP luck (and, sure, to many strikeouts). These are things that will change in the future; meanwhile, he’s an average to good defensive CF even though he’s barely ever played the position professionally.
I’ve heard a lot about Logan Watkins v2.0 this year, and it’s really dumb. Peripherally, he’s just been really hit-lucky. He hasn’t walked yet (in 41 PA), but he’s still at a fluky .340 wOBA. I’m a big Watkins fan, and consider him a valuable bench piece for the foreseeable future. Watkins can play serviceably at any position that isn’t catcher or pitcher, which is important for a utility role. Do I think Watkins will ever have a wRC+ over 85? Probably not. That’s not at all important for what he is, which is a cost-controlled major-league UTIL for the next half-decade.
Jorge Soler has been great. Even though his walks haven’t been where they normally are, he’s look very comfortable at the plate, and though his .387 BABIP is quite high, even when that comes down you’re still looking at .280/.350/.500 talent from RF. I think Soler has the best chance of any of the Core Four to hit .300 on a consistent basis, especially as he cuts his strikeouts down. Kris Bryant is a better prospect than Soler, but in my mind only barely.
Recap
There are 6 players of these 8 that figure to play important roles with the Cubs in 2015. The skeleton of the lineup right now is this:
C Castillo
1B Rizzo
2B Baez
SS Castro
3B Bryant
LF Coghlan?
CF Alcantara
RF Soler
INF Valbuena
UTIL Watkins
4OF Ruggiano?
CINF Olt?
C2 Lopez
#1 Arrieta
#2 Hendricks
#3 Wood?
#4 Jackson?
#5 Turner?
MU Doubront?
LR Grimm
LOOGY Wright
MR Rivero
MR Vizcaino
SU Strop
CL Rondon
If I put a question mark, I’m not happy they are there. As you can see, we are a left-fielder and a trio of starting pitchers away from being a pretty competitive team. That team is super cheap, mostly thanks to these rookies. Not bad, I’d say.