NLDS Preview: Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals

In Uncategorized by myles145 Comments

Playoff baseball never really gets old. Confession time: I've seen maybe 30 games this year. Maybe less. Part of that is having a 1-year old (and a 4-year old), but most of it is the fact that Cubs already did the damn thing. Furthermore, we pretty much all knew in the back of our minds that we were going to be at least competing for the division. I've watched more over the home stretch, but one of the beauties of baseball is that it is there whether you want to watch today or not. There is nearly always a game tomorrow.

Except in the playoffs.

Playoff baseball is a different atmosphere entirely. Individual games carry more meaning. Losing a 1-0 game to Clayton Kershaw isn't a big deal when it happens in the regular season, but when it happens Game 2 of the NLCS, you remember that thing for a long time (we had our revenge, of course). It's here, and we are here for it.

First Base

Ryan Zimmerman had a revival of sorts this season, with a .303/.358/.573 line. He crushes lefties, but is not slouch against right-handers either. He's about as mobile as a Maoi, but when you trot around the bases, you can take as long as you want. As good as Zimmerman is, Rizzo is still a hair better this year (.272/.392/.507). Zimmerman has more pop, but Rizzo gets on base more often. In the playoffs, I think I tend towards SLG (the probability of any positive event is lower against good pitching, but HR still give you a run regardless of who you hit one off of), but Rizzo is still better ENOUGH that I lean Rizz here.

Second Base

Daniel Murphy fell back to Earth slightly this year, but still had the second best year of his career (.322/.384/.543). He rarely strikes out (13.0%), has some pop (23 HR), and killed the Cubs in the playoffs two years ago. I hate Daniel Murphy. He's clearly a better player than Javier Baez (.273/.317/.480), but funnily enough the differential in their lines (.049/.067/.063) more or less just points out to a single every 20 at bats and a walk every 60 plate appearances. I'd like to think that Baez is a single better than Murphy over 4 games defensively, in which case they may be more evenly matched than you'd think at first blush. I lean Murphy here, but don't be at all surprised if Baez takes over the series.

Shortstop

Trea Turner is back from his injury, and he's a dynamic player on the basepaths (46 SB in 54 attempts) and with the glove (one of the best defenders in the league). Addison Russell is about as good defensively, maybe even better, but it's been a lost season for him at the plate and at home. Turner is definitively better than Russell at this point in time and a clear advantage goes to the Nationals.

Third Base

Both of these players were MVP candidates this year: Kris Bryant slashed .295/.409/.537 with 29 HR and good defense, and Rendon hit the trinity slash (.301/.403/.533) with 25 HR and very good defense (which surprised me – he has always struck me as solidly mediocre there but numbers have loved him his whole career). Since they are similar, I tend to view this as a push.

Catcher

This is a good old-fashioned rout. People might not realize how good Willson Contreras is, but he's one of (if not the) best catchers in baseball today. Offensively, his wOBA (.362) was third among catchers with 400 or more PA (behind Sanchez and Posey), and he's way better than either of those players defensively. A lack of plate appearances is the only reason he didn't lead the league in WAR for catchers and that's not a consideration in this series. Contreras will catch every single game in this series unless he's injured or Joe Maddon out-thinks himself. On the other hand, Matt Wieters is below replacement-level and Jose Labaton is below Wieters-level. The gap between Contreras and Wieters represents perhaps the largest gap at any position in this round of the playoffs for any team (maybe Severino vs. Santana).

Right Fielder

Houston, we have a problem. I'm assuming that Heyward will play here, even though I would start Happ (and Jay in center). While Bryce Harper might not be 100%, he's clearly way better than Jason Heyward. Harper had an OPS of 1.008 this year, while Heyward sported a .715. Heyward is still a defensive genius, though even that is not as overtly obvious as it used to be. Heyward is clearly outclassed by Harper. So is Happ, but at least that is closer. They both hit righties better, so a platoon wouldn't work here, but I think from a power perspective Happ has to be the play here, with Heyward coming in as a defensive replacement/pinch hitter. 

Center Fielder

I think Jon Jay will probably see the majority of run in center field, which at this point is the right play. A .374 OBP with speed at the top of the lineup is about all you can ask for; a poor man's Dexter Fowler is still a rich man indeed. Jay is a bad fielder at center, but he isn't so bad that you can't leave him there all series. Michael Taylor struggled initially after coming from a July injury, but turned it on in September. Still, he's a career .702 OPS guy. I think this is mostly a push, though Taylor has had the slightly better year (and is the better defender). 

Left Fielder

Schwarber, to my eyes, is still one of the 3 best hitters on the whole freaking team (Bryant and Rizzo, obviously). If you take only the past 30 days, that's even borne out by the stats. Unfortunately, the rest of the year happened; we can't pretend it didn't. Still, Schwarber is a dangerous hitter who hit 30 HR (1 more than Bryant!) and walked over 12% of the time during a season in which he struck out over 30% of at bats. Schwarber is exactly the type of player that translates well to playoff baseball. His counterpart is either Jayson Werth or Howie Kendrick; Werth had a worse season with the stick than Schwarber did, and Kendrick notched under 200 PA this year (though acquitted himself admirably in those plate appearances). I think Schwarber is a better player than either, though I'm not overlooking the possibility that he either doesn't get the opportunity to play or fails when he does.

Bench

The Cubs have the definitive edge here, with Ben Zobrist and Ian Happ being excellent guys to play in a pinch (or even start). Alex Avila is a better catcher than anyone on the Nationals staff. The "dare to be great" option would be Victor Robles, who is going to be one of those guys that challenges for the MVP on a yearly basis. I'm super high on Robles. He may break Rizzo's stranglehold on yearly HBP totals, and he's a 20-year old offensive dynamo that plays top-level CF. Seems good, though he may be a year away from his coming out party.

Ace

Max Scherzer is knocking on the door of "greatest living pitcher." Kershaw is better on a per-inning basis, but Scherzer repeatedly gives you 200 innings a year, which Kershaw can't say. In fact, over the past 8 years, Scherzer's fewest innings pitched was 187.2. He's nursing a slight hamstring kerfluffle, but I don't think it'll matter too much. The fact that I can't come up with a Cubs "ace" pretty much tells you what you need to know here. I think Quintana is probably the best pitcher on the Cubs at this current moment, but I lean towards Hendricks as the Game 1 starter. Hendricks has quietly amassed the 11th most fWAR in the NL over the past 3 years (7th over the past 2), and he's done it by allowing the softest contact in the league over that span. It seems self-evident that softer contact leads to lower BABIP, and the soft contact that Hendricks allows seems to be the primary driver in why he beats his FIP on a routine basis. I'd take Scherzer over Hendricks, but it's not a rout.

#2

Stephen Strasburg, when healthy, is about as good as anyone in the league (2.52 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 22.4% K-BB%). He's healthy, and that's a problem for the Cubs. Jose Quintana is very durable and quite good, but his top-end talent simply isn't on Strasburg's level, which is what is important in the playoffs. Advantage here goes to the Nationals.

#3

There's a significant gap from Strasburg to Gio Gonzalez, but Gonzalez is no slouch either. He outpitched his FIP by a lot this year after inpitching (?) it by the same margin last year: I consider Gonzalez to be a pretty good #3 but someone that is very attackable. When healthy, Jake Arrieta is a better pitcher, but it's very close to a toss-up as far as which one I'd rather have right now. I'd probably lean Gonzalez, but the spread of what I expect from Arrieta is so huge that I have no idea who will show up. 

#4

This space left blank for the Nationals, who won't trot out a 4th pitcher in this series. The Cubs will go to Lester (in all honesty, Lester will probably start Game 1 for "reasons"). Lester has the playoff pedigree and when he hasn't imploded, he's been very good. Unfortunately, he's detonated several times this year, and I'm not sure he's even 100% healthy right now. I just really hope Maddon has a quick hook if trouble presents itself (I can't believe I'm typing this).

Bullpen

The Nationals had a horrific bullpen until they acquired Kintzler, Madson, and Doolittle. Now, it's among the best in all of baseball. Fun. The Cubs will counter with Edwards, Strop, and Davis, a very fine trio in their own right. The Cubs have a deeper pen than the Nationals. That rarely comes into play in a best-of-5 series, but if the games become bullpen affairs, that's where the Cubs want to be (in no small part due to our much deeper bench). 

Macro Offense

The Nationals and Cubs have extremely similar offense lineups. The Nationals are a more adventurous team on the basepaths, but that may well be neutralized by Contreras. The Cubs scored 3 more runs than the Nationals thi syear. They had 6 points more of OBP and 12 less of slugging. They sport identical wOBA, and are both at full strength (after having both SS miss significant time). The Cubs have a slightly more even lineup, and the Nationals' production is a little spikier (which I tend to favor in the playoffs). No team has a clear advantage here.

Macro Defense

The Cubs are a better defensive team, but it isn't like it was last year when they were the best defensive team in the history of the world. I give the nod to the Cubs, but an outfield of Schwarber/Jay/Happ begs to be tested, and it will.

Macro Pitching

I think the Nationals are better, and it's clear but close. The advantage is somewhat overblown in my opinion, but it's definitely there. If the Cubs' pitchers hit their 2016 levels of performance, this matchup is essentially dead even, and that's what I'm hanging my hat on. 

Conclusion

I think the Nationals deserve to be the slight favorite in this series. First, they are the home team. Second, they have the better pitching staff, and the offenses are a wash. While every intangible from game management to bench to back-end bullpen favors the Cubs, those aren't typically the things that decide baseball games. Would it surprise me if the Cubs won this series? Absolutely not. Do I expect them to win the series? Yeah, I do. I expect the Cubs to win every series until they lose one. Should a rational, unbiased observer expect the Cubs to win this series? No. The smart pick is probably Nationals in 5. Cubs are clinching this in 4 games. The Nationals suck. Let's beat their brains in.

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Comments

  1. Rizzo the Rat

    So you think Maddon will go with two right fielders and no left fielder? That’s bold, even for him.

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  4. berselius

    Good piece, Myles. Thanks for writing it. I’ve almost succeeded at hacking up this entire lung, once I’m done I’ll be in the best shape of my life again.

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  6. dmick89

    Arrieta’s simulated start was changed to a bullpen and from what I just read now it’s just about trying to keep him healthy. Unless the Cubs are pretty certain he’s healthy, I’d rather have Lackey start. My first preference at this point is to go with three starters in the LDS.

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  12. dmick89

    I think the Nationals win in four. I think their starting pitching is just too good. Unlike 2015 and 2016, the Cubs don’t have a single starter that you almost expect to shut down the other team. Only two of the starters are without question marks and it seems Joe is doing everything he can to ensure that one of them doesn’t pitch in the first two games.

    Also, if Arrieta isn’t ready to pitch, do you put him in the bullpen or do you consider replacing him?

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  13. Edwin

    I actually prefer the best of 5 series to a best of 7. I know best of 5 is more random, but I feel the extra excitement placed on each game is worth it.

    I think the Cubs sweep, because baseball.

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  15. dmick89

    Edwin,

    A best of 5 changes the game even more than a best of 7 does. My biggest complaint about the playoffs is the days off and how it allows teams to play entirely different than they did during the regular season. If you go with all the series being a best of 5, all teams will go to a 3 man rotation unless they eliminate off days. Personally, I don’t see the need for an off day during the series. Teams play all the time without a day off even when they travel during the regular season. Go with two days off between series if you want.

    Anyway, I’d hate it if they went to 5 game series. I’d be more in favor of 9 than 5.

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  16. Author
    myles

    Edwin:
    I actually prefer the best of 5 series to a best of 7.I know best of 5 is more random, but I feel the extra excitement placed on each game is worth it.

    I think the Cubs sweep, because baseball.

    If you believe that the Nationals are better, you want a shorter series because of the laws of variance. If you believe the Cubs are better, you want a 177-game series.

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  20. Edwin

    dmick89: If you go with all the series being a best of 5, all teams will go to a 3 man rotation unless they eliminate off days.

    Good. It means I get to see at worst a team’s #3 starter in a meaningful game, instead of their #4 starter. I think the playoffs are different than the regular season due each game being way more important, so I don’t mind teams playing differently. The more games in a series, the lower the stakes of each game. I like high stakes. Best of 5 is that sweet spot for me, where the stakes are high enough but it’s not too random.

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  22. dmick89

    Edwin: Good. It means I get to see at worst a team’s #3 starter in a meaningful game, instead of their #4 starter.

    I tend to agree with you here, but there is evidence that a starter in 3 days rest is much less effective. RtR mentioned in the last thread that he’d rather Lackey/Montgomery get a start than go to a 3 man rotation. Statistically, it’s probably going to result in better performance that way. While I agree that the 3 man rotation is more appealing, we would probably see better pitching with the current way it’s done.

    I guess I just hate the lesser team has a better chance of winning a 5 game series than they do a 7 game series. Besides, I’d rather there be more baseball, not less. I’d like there to be 200 or more regular season games and the playoffs to be best of 9.

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  29. dmick89

    Catch67,

    Unless they’re going with a 3-man rotation, it doesn’t really matter which of those two pitches game 2 or 3. I’d have gone with Quintana first, but I’m fine with Hendricks and I’m glad Arrieta is 4th. Realistically, Arrieta should be listed as day to day because I think there’s a good chance Lackey ends up starting a potential game 4.

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  31. Author
    myles

    We’ve made it. Just received this e-mail for an exclusive opportunity:

    Message Body:
    Your post on Walks vs. Strikeouts was brilliant. Totally agree that it is encouraging that so many people are in the best quadrant.
    The NLDS Preview: Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals post is great analysis though the Cubs are going to take it.

    Because you write about the Cubs, would it be okay to send you some information on our client Tickets.Expert’s partner program? By becoming a partner, you’ll have access to their inventory of verified tickets through their marketplace including same day, sold out, and hard to find seats. Each time one of your readers buys a ticket, you’ll get a percentage of each ticket sale. You’ll also have access to the tickets widget we’re about to release. The widget enables you to copy and paste a small piece of code and have a custom ticket engine on your site to provide a seamless experience for fans.

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  33. dmick89

    myles,

    (dying laughing) Those all go in the spam folder when I get them. There seems to be about 20 different online ticket places these days.

    That one is especially funny because they’re asking us to put their shit on our site and all we get in return is a seamless experience.

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  36. Edwin

    dmick89,

    Your comment on Spam Received through e-mail was brilliant. Totally agree that those should go in the Spam Folder and that there are Twenty of Them. Thank you for writing about Shit. If you happen to not die from your laughing, would it be ok to send you some information on my client Admission.Savvy?

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  38. BVS

    myles,

    Are those differences .01% or did you convert the percent to decimal first? Because if they are %s, I think there are no real differences for anyone.

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  39. Perkins

    Apparently the Nats felt so good about Scherzer’s workout today that they cut it short. He didn’t do a bullpen session as he’d been expected to do.

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  41. Perkins

    dmick89,

    In theory, yes. But given his comments earlier about how he could do pretty much everything except pitch, and then he didn’t really pitch today, I’m wondering if he’s still hurting.

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  42. dmick89

    Perkins,

    Didn’t Strasburg throw a bullpen today so I’d assume that a bullpen tomorrow for Scherzer puts him on track to start on Saturday. My guess is he’ll start game 2. I thought I read the Nats were going with three starters so I assume they’ll want to try and get two starts from Scherzer in the series if it goes the distance.

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  43. Perkins

    dmick89,

    They might. And while it’s probably terrible, I’m kind of hoping he has a setback because it’s tough to imagine the Cubs beating him twice in a five game series.

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  44. dmick89

    Perkins,

    It’s hard to imagine the Cubs pulling off three wins against any combination of the three starters they’ll be facing. As for Scherzer, they only have to beat him once if they can win in fewer than 5. Scherzer wasn’t all that good against the Dodgers last year in the LDS. He gave up 3 home runs in 12 innings. He only gave up 4 runs and struckout 12 while walking 2, but he was human. The Cubs took him deep four times last year in one of the games they faced him. I’d much rather he be out for the series too, but I was last year and still am a lot more worried about Kershaw than I am Scherzer.

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  45. Perkins

    dmick89,

    Kershaw is a beast, but I hope the Cubs get a chance to worry about him (again). Last year he was pretty beatable in NLCS 6, though. My dad lost his voice from heckling him so lustily.

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  56. Berselius is too lazy to log in

    Not sure if the Dbacks deserve to lose for starting Daniel Descalso in an elimination game or deserve to win for finding a way to win 93 games despite the fact that he was a regular.

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  68. cerulean

    I am noticing again how terrible the Dbags uniforms are. Yeah, I know they are terrible, but I am never fully prepared for how terrible they are. If only Chris Sale were on the team—he would know how to fix it.

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  71. Ryno

    Perkins: I’m planning to sell my tickets for both as I’ll be out of town on business.

    This sounds vague and suspicious. Like you’re trying to establish an alibi…

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  77. EnricoPallazzo

    Ryno,

    i’ve seen that floating around. bobson dugnutt is the greatest fake name ever. i strongly suspect that perkins’s “business trip” is to meet with an associate named “bobson dugnutt”.

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  78. Ryno

    Blessed to receive my 8th offer from university of Texas ???????? #longhornsforlife thank Coach @OscarGiles95 ????????????????
    — @Tvondre_

    Man, Texas is really persistent with this kid.

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  81. Perkins

    EnricoPallazzo:
    Ryno,

    i’ve seen that floating around. bobson dugnutt is the greatest fake name ever. i strongly suspect that perkins’s “business trip” is to meet with an associate named “bobson dugnutt”.

    (dying laughing), well I’ll be in Charlotte, so I wouldn’t rule it out.

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  90. dmick89

    SK,

    He didn’t throw a bullpen today so I’d be surprised if he started in Trumpville. The Nats keep saying he’ll start in this series, which I’m guessing is still accurate, but they definitely wanted to get him in game 2 so he’d be available to pitch in game 5. The fact he can’t even try to get on the bullpen mound has to be more concerning to them than they’re letting on.

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  93. Perkins

    If the Cubs don’t make the World Series, I hope the Astros win it. It’d be great to see Verlander get a ring.

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  96. dmick89

    Perkins,

    I think both should be back in the playoffs again next year. I’ll take any team in the AL over any non-Cubs team. A Yankees/Dodgers series could be fun, but I’d love to see Yankees/Cubs this year.

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  98. cerulean

    The Red Sox and the Yankees have the possibility of defeating three hundred-win teams in a single postseason. The last time such was possible was 2002. The Yankees and the Red Sox are the only teams this century to have beaten two hundred-win teams in a postseason—2001 Yankees and 2004 Red Sox.

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  100. cerulean

    Heh—if the Padres had beaten the 114-win Yankees in 1998, they would have beaten three hundred-win teams, already besting the 102-win Astros and 106-win Braves.

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  106. BVS

    You know what I haven’t missed this post season?

    The trope about how the team with the most ex-Cubs will lose.

    Though I guess that was true last year too.

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  112. Rizzo the Rat

    I’ve never been as impressed as some with Francona’s “unconventional” bullpen usage. Too often, he puts Miller in low-to-medium leverage situations.

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  117. Berselius is too lazy to log in

    BVS,

    Maybe Miller is on the right side of history and prefers pie, rightly thinking that a cake walk sounds like garbage.

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  121. dmick89

    Myles,

    I think he’ll pitch game 3, but yeah, if he can’t pitch then the Cubs probably have about a 55-58% chance of winning the series. I’m still going with Nationals in four.

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  123. Ryno

    I don’t know why you guys are even bothering. The top seed has won each game of the postseason, so the Cubs have no chance.

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  125. Perkins

    dmick89,

    I’m surprised Wilson made it over Rondon. II’d guess neither would see high leverage innings, but Rondon has looked better than Wilson of late.

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  127. Perkins

    dmick89,

    Yeah, even taking into account Murphy and Harper, I wouldn’t feel comfortable sending out a guy who has allowed more than two base runners an inning since he’s been with the Cubs.

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  130. berselius

    Frankly I’m more baffled that Lackey made the roster. Maybe Arrieta insurance, I guess. I don’t like him out of the pen.

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  131. dmick89

    berselius,

    Once Arrieta had the setback, Lackey was almost guaranteed a spot. If Arrieta warms up and ends up not being able to go (a real possibility), Lackey can take over. I’m sure he’ll prepare as if he’s starting game 4.

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  133. cerulean

    Until the Nationals prove they can win a postseason series—the Cubs are the absolute favorite.

    #logic
    #tautology

    Bonus hashtag with built in shareable meme:
    #withDustyWeRusty

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  142. dmick89

    berselius,

    (dying laughing) that’s pretty funny.

    I think it’s funny people watch shows they don’t like. It’s one of the most confusing things I come across on twitter. There are about a million things on tv these days and somehow hate watching a show has become entertaining to some people. It’s so much easier to just ignore the shows you don’t like.

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