OSS: That was the craziest Cubs’ winner-take-all clincher I have seen since the last time they had a winner-take-all clincher.*
Three up:
- On a night of shaky pitching performances all around, Wade Davis somehow put together a seven out save to send the Cubs to the NLCS. He didn't have his best stuff, but he brought it for the final at bat by Bryce Harper.
- Addison Russell went 2-4 with a walk and was the Cubs WPA leader on the day. Most of it came from his double down the line in the fifth inning off of Max Scherzer that gave the Cubs the lead. He also ended up getting credit for the Javy Baez strikeout/passed ball/throwing error since he scored the first run, since negative WPA can't be assigned to defensive incompetence. Russell also drove in Zobrist with a double in the sixth and got one of the too-few seeming runs against Gonzalez with an RBI groundout in the third.
- The key defensive play of the game came with Nats runners on first and second in the eighth inning. Willson Contreras back-picked Jose Lobaton at first base, thanks to his foot coming momentarily off the bag. At first (and second through sixth) glance I thought both that he was safe and that there was no possible way the umpires could overturn it based on the camera angles we had, but they called him out. After the break the tv broadcast managed to sync up the two camera angles and it was suddenly much more clear that Rizzo had the tag on when Loabton's foot came off the bag. Great catch by the umps in NY, and I wish the broadcast crews could sync up these angles that quickly.
Three down:
- The pitching staff walked nine batters in this game, and frankly that was about 50% lower than I would have guessed. The less said about their performance the better. The starters better pitch deep into all of their NLCS games (dying laughing).
- Joe made a lot of miscues in this one, and it would take too much time to catalogue them here. Read the comments on the game thread. Or don't. I can't tell you what to do.
- That said, I'm not too upset about most of them. It feels strange to complain about the offense in a game where they scored nine runs, but here we are (dying laughing). The performance of the rest of the pitching staff probably gives some indication as to why Joe tried to ride Hendricks as long as he did. The Cubs got their big hits (and gifts from the Nats) in the middle innings, but at the time I couldn't help but feel they should have scored way more runs off of Gonzalez. They had the bases juiced in the first and third and came away with three runs on two groundouts and a wild pitch.
Next up: Clayton Kershaw looms in game one of the NLCS on Saturday facing whoever can still lift a baseball. I'm guessing Quintana gets the start since his outing in this game was so short, and Lester probably pitches on three days rest in game two. Game time is 7:00 PM CT.
*hat tip to cerulean
Comments
Dodgers in 5 except when it’s Cubs in 6, right?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
CLUELESS MEMBER OF MEDIA: Any thoughts on the Cubs-Dodgers series?
HARPER: I haven’t given it a thought
If he had given it a thought, he would have said, “What the fuck kind of question is that!?’
ceruleanQuote Reply
Post game talking about why the Nats lost tonight. Because they played bad defense and got picked off. Mental mistakes all around. Want to blame one person? I’d say Weiters.
BVSQuote Reply
That’s a clown question bro.
BVSQuote Reply
cerulean,
Why the fuck would ask Harper that?
joshQuote Reply
BVS,
That weird miss by Werth was weird
joshQuote Reply
I think Harper wants to play for the Cubs. I hope Heyward has a monster season and is the World Series MVP for two years in a row.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Me too
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
That was great. I wish more athletes treated stupid questions like that.
dmick89Quote Reply
BVS,
If you’re blaming one person only, you have to go with Scherzer IMO.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Sure. But catcher interference and passed ball is on Weiters. I’m happy to let them share though.
BVSQuote Reply
I totally missed that La Stella got on via catchers interference. I seemed to remember him getting HBP.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
That was Jay.
ceruleanQuote Reply
They had a stat that such a sequence of plate appearances has never occured in the history of baseball.
ceruleanQuote Reply
That missed catch by Werth and the looks on the Nats fans in the stands reminded me very much of what 1984 felt like. They outchoked us. So good to have the monkey on someone else’s back after all these years. Wish my dad was here to see it.
67catchQuote Reply
This game was way too long.
dmick89Quote Reply
Four plate appearances:
Intent walk
Strikeout-passed ball-throwing error (bonus blown batter interference non-call)
Catcher interference
Hit by pitch
Baseball.
ceruleanQuote Reply
If the Cubs lost, I’d be more pissed at how long this game lasted than losing it.
dmick89Quote Reply
Dusty’s postgame presser was about a 9 on a scale of 1 to Lou Pineilla’s retirement presser in terms of how depressed he sounded.
berseliusQuote Reply
It was the worst greatest game ever played.
67catchQuote Reply
…The 2012 Giants won it all. They sucked the next year.
The 2013 Red Sox won it all. They sucked the next year.
The 2014 Giants won it all. They sucked the next year.
The 2015 Royals it all. They sucked the next year.
The 2016 Cubs won it all. They made the NLCS for the third straight year…
I think the Cubs might be good.
ceruleanQuote Reply
berselius,
He sounded terrible. He looked tired.
dmick89Quote Reply
67catch,
Game seven last year was better and worse. David Ross homering off of Andrew Miller and falling on his ass to let a run score.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The Cubs are 3–0 in winner-take-all games in the Maddon era. They are 5–1 when facing elimination. They are 6–1 in clinching opportunities—in fact, yesterday was the first time they failed to clinch.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Yes, that’s true if you want to get into facts. Tonight’s was just the worst greatest game ever that I’m trying to come down from right now.
67catchQuote Reply
cerulean,
The guys from baseball-reference tweeted that those four events had never happened in a single half-inning before (at least among the games in their database, which is like 70% of MLB history or something), and had shown up in a single game only five times.
I don’t like the Nats but I have a good friend who does, and I feel pretty bad for him. But just him. Maybe my favorite part of this is that Pat Sajak must be pissed right now.
uncle daveQuote Reply
uncle dave,
Is Pat Sajak the one celebrity Nats fan?
SKQuote Reply
Can confirm: even watching the 20-minute condensed game induced unnatural systolic heart murmur.
SKQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
The four largest TV markets are in the LCSs.
SKQuote Reply
SK,
#ratings
Rice CubeQuote Reply
SK,
https://youtu.be/Sr-NcBCEDwU?t=13s
RynoQuote Reply
Such charisma. I don’t want to get into it.
MylesQuote Reply
Game 7 of the WS was probably worse, but they came back pretty quickly against the Cubs last year. Last night was brutal because it was spread out over several innings. Both were great games and both of them nearly caused me to have a heart attack. There’s obviously more importance to game 7 of the WS than game 5 of the LDS. Both games sucked. Both games were awesome. Both games made it difficult to breath.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
WSG7 was bad because I went from feeling like they were going to win to being certain they’d lose real quick. The time it took for that to sink in was not fun.
Last night was hard because I knew the game was in the hands of the 2017 Cubs bullpen for several innings. Lead or not, that’s some scary shit.
RynoQuote Reply
Part of what made 2003 so hard is that I know how hard it is to get to an NLCS. 162 games where anything can go wrong. Then a 5-game LDS where the best teams don’t always win.
After the Cubs were bounced in 2003, I felt like they were never going to get back to that point.
Friends, the Cubs are about to participate in their third consecutive NLCS…
RynoQuote Reply
That was probably the most backbreaking playoff loss since the Bartman game, and Dusty was on the losing side of both of them.
Berselius is too lazy to log inQuote Reply
It feels like the Cubs are playing with house money at this point. I really don’t expect them to beat the Dodgers, but Kershaw has looked beatable in the postseason, and for some reason the Cubs seem to have hit him well overall (especially relative to his skill level). And baseball being baseball, weird shit can always happen.
The Cubs basically have nothing to lose, so this could be a fun series. Even when Theo and company took over, I never really expected the Cubs would have three consecutive NLCS appearances.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I wish they showed exit velocity and trajectory on non-homeruns. That line drive by Schwarber had to have left his bat at 120 mph, if not 200. Maybe more.
TheVanQuote Reply
TheVan,
I think they do have that one if you check out the recent videos on Cubs.com. I think it was 114 mph.
dmick89Quote Reply
Consensus from friends/family in the DC area is that the Wapo sportswriters are going to run Dusty out of town.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
His contract is up and Rizzo didn’t want to talk about extension. I’m guessing it was dependent on the Nationals at least making the LCS. I’d be surprised if he’s back in Washington. His post-game sounded like a retirement press conference.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Too bad. I think Dusty is outdated, but he seems to run a good clubhouse, and he’s a guy that players seem to respect.
EdwinQuote Reply
Dusty Baker has managed 14 winning seasons and 8 losing seasons. Could have just piggy-backed on successful clubs, but he’s managed winning seasons with 4 different clubs now as well. I’m not asking for him back, but
oogQuote Reply
Ryno,
And the walks, all of the walks. It was like being stuck on a plane that was circling to burn all of its fuel before a crash landing.
I barely had time to process what had happened in game 7, at least before the rain delay. Also, I’d been drinking more. It made it a bit easier.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Edwin,
He seems like a genuinely good guy, though I don’t have much affection for his time in Chicago. Tough to absorb another loss like that.
uncle daveQuote Reply
dmick89,
Ah. I thought he had another year for some reason.
berseliusQuote Reply
SK,
He’s the most high-profile, I think. He has season tickets to the Caps, that’s his main passion. (That and climate change denial, I guess.) Others who popped up on twitter include Chris Cillizza, who can eat a bag of dicks equally sized to the one I have set aside for Sajak. Seth Davis and Dave Zirin, too, though I’m not sure I’d classify them as celebs. And somehow I now know the bass player for Good Charlotte and can confirm that he’s a Nats fan, too, though his interest is casual.
It’s hardly the crowd at a Lakers game.
uncle daveQuote Reply
538 gives the Dodgers 60% odds of beating the Cubs.
dmick89Quote Reply
Sounds slightly low.
mylesQuote Reply
ceruleanQuote Reply
PerkinsQuote Reply
i just got notified that i get to buy tix in the lotto tomorrow. fuck yeah. is it pretty much impossible to try to get 4 seats together? i’d like to get 4 but would rather get 2+2 than go for 4 and get shut out…
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
not sure if this has been discussed but does CJ make the nlcs roster?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Not sure if you’d get shut out; I assume if you just do 4 tickets best available then it should work?
Do you have to do a virtual waiting room or anything for that, or is it a free for all at a certain time?
PerkinsQuote Reply
It would be so cool to see Starlin Castro back at Wrigley Field for a World Series.
dmick89Quote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
Yeah, he’ll make the roster, but I doubt Wilson does. Not sure that you can have two guys you have zero trust in. I think we’ll see Rondon in the bullpen.
dmick89Quote Reply
If you are quick,you can get 4. I did for the NLDS (sec 228) but didn’t for the NLCS two years ago (3 together, 1 solo that I resold). Be at your computer refreshing constantly from 3 min before portal opens.
MylesQuote Reply
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-nationals-protest-case/
berseliusQuote Reply
Yeah, I think Dusty is a good guy. He may be a dinosaur, but dinosaurs are cool.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
berselius,
OK, that makes me feel a little better about the play. It may or may not have been the wrong call, but it doesn’t seem as though last night’s win was stolen.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
berselius,
I agree with the umpire.
I’d have been pissed if they called that a dead ball.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Still reading. Interesting that we never heard about this other rule after the game during the tbs post-game.
dmick89Quote Reply
thanks. i’m not sure what to expect since they are doing the $50 deposit thing this year. i’m really hoping it kept a bunch of the dickhead scalpers out of the lotto but i’m sure a bunch of them found some loophole.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
well my concern is that i go for 4, and there is no block of 4, but while it’s searching, all of the 2s and 3s sell out. it’s happened to me before. but now they make you put a refundable $50 down to even be considered for the lotto which i think is a great idea and hopefully that makes the lotto a little less insane. probably not though. scalpers fucking suck.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
dmick89,
That’s my judgment too.
SKQuote Reply
Just jam best available, or alternatively, bleachers. I would do best available though. If you are diligent, you should be ok.
mylesQuote Reply
When is your slot?
ceruleanQuote Reply
Bleachers are assigned seating in the playoffs, though there is a bit more leeway for skinny people.
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
In my judgment, that umpire has good judgment, in my judgment.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
What a dumb and fortunate inning for the Cubs that was.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21006931/max-scherzer-unbelievable-impossible-unprecedented-loss
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I have to say, my liver is getting punished a lot less during this postseason, and my anxiety is basically zero.
It’s kind of nice that a Cubs World Series championship is in recent memory. But it’d be better still if these jabronis got another one this year.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins the Punisher sounds like a Mid-South wrestling world champion.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
I prefer to go by “The Iron Yuppie” when I wrestle. (dying laughing)
PerkinsQuote Reply
Looks like the NLCS gets all the primetime slots again. The combination of Chicago and LA must be a bigger media market than New York.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
I assume it has to do with televising the game at the time the most people would be available to watch considering the markets represented.
dmick89Quote Reply
Perkins,
I think it has to do more with the timezones and maximizing the primetime viewership across the entire country than the markets themselves.
Terrible timeslots though—the LA games are actually an hour earlier than the Chicago ones.
ceruleanQuote Reply
8:00? Criminy.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Lackey might start tomorrow.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I guess if you’re going to punt, you do it against Kershaw.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
I think it makes more sense than a less than 100% Quintana and then every other day the rotation would be a bit off. The other problem though is this turns it into a bullpen game assuming lackey only pitches 4 or so innings
WaLiQuote Reply
Perkins,
I understand the idea behind it, but I think you have to pick your four best starters because they’re the ones that give you the best chance to win the series. Quintana should be fine. He basically threw an inning of work on his throw day so it’s not like the Lester situation. The Cubs managed to win games against Strasburg and Scherzer in part because they had their best starters going. If Lackey was going in game one they probably lose and the series is very different. These games are too important to punt any of them.
If you’re replacing Arrieta with Lackey then I think it’s a slightly different discussion. For what it’s worth, I’m okay if they did do that, but I still wouldn’t start Lackey in the first game. Quintana should be fine and Lester can pitch on three days rest. He threw a lot, but it was still only 50ish pitches. If it was late in the season and Lester got lit one up start throwing only 50 pitches, nobody would think twice about bringing him back on three days rest.
Personally, I don’t see the rotation as some big question mark that has to be settled because the Cubs had to play a deciding game. The rotation lines up fine. I’d rather have Hendricks for game two than Lester, but that’s not possible. If the Cubs want Lackey over Arrieta, Lackey should start game four in my opinion.
dmick89Quote Reply
News from the Shire: it is indeed Quintana pitching tonight.
berseliusQuote Reply
OK, I’m sorry to bring this up again, but my earlier comments were too hasty and I now think umpire Jerry Layne botched this one. 6.03 is quite clear what happens when the batter hits the catcher with his back-swing. It’s a strike, the ball is dead, no runners advance and there is no interference. There is absolutely nothing to support the notion that it does not apply to a wild pitch or passed ball. Invoking 6.01 (which deals with interference) makes no sense because interference is already ruled out by 6.03.
The Cubs benefited from sloppy umpiring as well as sloppy play.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
For what it’s worth, here’s a feature on mlb.com that says the rule does apply to dropped third strikes. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/umpires/feature.jsp?feature=call5
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
To be honest, I think the most egregious umpiring mistake was not calling Jay out on the new slide rule later in the game, but that’s my own axe to grind.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
That one is a judgment call, though. (I thought it was a defensible one, though I’m not much of a fan of the slide rule, and generally want it to be applied infrequently.)
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Are the Nats raging about these calls? Do they feel cheated?
I’m not interested enough to look myself.
SKQuote Reply
dmick89,
Oh I agree. They absolutely can’t afford to punt a game, and beating the Dodgers will be hard enough without handicapping themselves. Quintana is very obviously the better call, and I’d like to see more use of starters as relievers on their side work days as a general thing.
PerkinsQuote Reply
SK,
The Washington Post says the Nats are unhappy, but I’m not hearing anything about a formal complaint: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2017/10/12/nationals-hurt-by-crucial-missed-call-in-do-or-die-nlds-game-5/?utm_term=.14eafc7f0d9a
Also, I found something on Fangraphs that references the official umpire’s manual that says the rule in question does, in fact, apply to a dropped third strike: https://www.fangraphs.com/community/jerry-layne-may-have-cost-the-nationals-their-season/
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I had an 11:40 CT timeslot. It seemed pretty late. Game 5 had two standing room tickets available. I declined and tried game 3 and 4—nothing. Came back to game 5 for nothing.
It’s just like me to win something worthless.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
oh wow i assumed that everyone got the same 11am slot. that sucks man. i got 3 game 5 tix in 429 row 1 which i am thrilled with but they were definitely going fast at 11am so i don’t even know why they would offer an 1140am slot. that sucks.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
Hopefully I get the 11:00 timeslot for the WS that the Cubs are definitely going to against the Yankees.
(Apologies for ensuring a Dodgers-Astros WS that no one will bother to watch.)
Dodgers_in_5!!!!!
ceruleanQuote Reply
Just rewatching fifth inning no big whoop.
SKQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
If I were the Nats I’d be pretty livid.
SKQuote Reply
On the game with the now infamous fifth inning: I don’t feel like the Cubs stole one because of the fifth inning break. They had already taken the lead against Scherzer. If we run the counterfactual at that point and simulate what happens beyond that—it is entire possible that the Cubs’ bullpen is impenetrable the rest of the game—crazy, I know, but bullpens gonna bullpen.
I hate the Lobaton call in principle—last year’s Cubs (Javy at second?) were burnt by something similar. I don’t think the slide was dirty but it seems like it may have violated the current slide rule though there is no way the slide delayed Murphy from throwing the ball. All in all, it was a weird game, but it felt good to catch some breaks after catching none for game 4.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
I don’t disagree that the Cubs are still due a shitton of payback from the baseball gods.
SKQuote Reply
I thought that was a clean slide, but like RtR I want that rule enforced as little as possible.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
If this is accurate, the rule needs to be updated. Javy did not interfere with that play. The ball was already past him and the best they could say is it affected the throw, but I think that’s iffy.
dmick89Quote Reply
Wieters has already whiffed on that ball by the time Baez’s backswings hits his helmet. In my opinion, there’s no way you can call that a dead ball. If you want to say the runners can advance only one base, I’d be fine with that. That actually makes sense, but unless you swing before the pitch is thrown, it’s doubtful any backswing will affect whether or not the catcher catches or blocks the ball.
dmick89Quote Reply
deleted
dmick89Quote Reply
Wow.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
You can pause that gif to see that the ball was clearly passed Wieters.
dmick89Quote Reply
I wouldn’t mind a rule change, but it’s such an unusual occurrence, it’s probably not worth bothering with.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Holy shit
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Also, dammit, I was just about to publish the preview and I need to update it (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
New shit http://obstructedview.net/nlcs-series-preview-chicago-cubs-92-70-vs-los-angeles-dodgers-of-los-angeles-104-58/
berseliusQuote Reply