NLCS Game 5: Cubs @ Dodgers Game Thread

In Uncategorized by myles371 Comments

Time: 19:08 CT (har har MLB)
TV: FS1
Series Preview
Gameday Thread

LINEUPS (projected)

Cubs logo
(103-58, 2-2)

Dexter Fowler, CF
Kris Bryant, 3B
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Ben Zobrist, LF
Javier Baez, 2B
Jason Heyward, RF
Addison Russell, SS
David Ross, C
Jon Lester, P

Lester Stats

202.2 IP
8.75 K/9
2.31 BB/9
2.44 ERA
3.41 FIP
3.47 xFIP

los_angeles_dodgers
(91-71, 2-2)

Kike Hernandez, 2B
Justin Turner, 3B
Corey Seager, SS
Carlos Ruiz, C
Howie Kendrick, LF
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Yasiel Puig, RF
Joc Pederson, CF
Kenta Maeda, P

Maeda Stats

175.2 IP
9.17 K/9
2.52 BB/9
3.48 ERA
3.58 FIP
3.70 xFIP

Will the Cubs win? Dodgers. In. 5.

538 Forecast: 59% chance of winning

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Comments

  1. WaLi

    OK, we won a game yesterday. If we win today, it’s called “two in a row”. And if we win again Saturday, it’s called a “winning streak”… It has happened before!

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  2. Perkins

    Yes, Pete. Alex Rodriguez played so well because Jeter was there to motivate him. It had nothing to do with his being one of the best players of all time.

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  3. cerulean

    WaLi,

    Statistically speaking, a three-game winning streak happens 12.5% of the time for three consecutive coin-flip games. The Cubs are probably better than the Dodgers, so maybe it’s bit more. That means the probability of a three-game winning streak is about the same as Trump becoming president, according to 538’s model.

    And since 85+% is about as good as 90% which is about as good as 95% which is about as good as 99% which is about as good as 100%, it is impossible for Donald Trump to win or for the Cubs to have this fabled “winning streak” you speak of.

    #logic
    #statistics
    #hashtagLogic
    #hashtagStatistics
    #hashtagHashtagLogic
    #hashtagHashtagStatistics

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  4. WaLi

    cerulean,

    So you’re telling me there’s a chance?

    But in all seriousness, you only need two coin flips in a row, not three, so it’should at 25% as of now. What happened yesterday doesn’t impact today’s chances.

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  5. cerulean

    WaLi:
    cerulean,

    What happened yesterday doesn’t impact today’s chances.

    If that is the case, then Billy Goats and Black Cats don’t have any bearing on today, which is obviously false. QED

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  6. cerulean

    The Cubs don’t really manufacture runs; they just slug.

    Then Fowler takes off and scores from first on a double without a throw.

    Just. Slug.

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  7. Perkins

    Good stuff. I hope Hernandez gets his ass thrown out with that dance fever shit.

    Or that he doesn’t reach base again.

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  8. Pinch-Running Tom Goodwin

    For some reason I’m hoping the food that Larry King is eating out of that cup is cottage cheese.

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  9. berselius

    I’m not sure what’s bugging me so much about the Fox strike zone thing. Maybe the delayed appearance of where the ball crosses the plate.

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  10. JonKneeV

    I like getting hits off Kenta Maeda because he has this stupid look on his face like “How did he hit that” even when he hangs a curve or throw a fastball down the middle.

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  11. cerulean

    Struck out and well struck to strand another in scoring position with less than two outs.

    Maybe they should try bunting. /deadpan

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  12. cerulean

    berselius,

    The zone they showed in the game had it only off the edge. This is part of the problem—the strike zone is poorly defined, so any inconsistency on part of the ump is magnified.

    One zone. Robot umps.

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  13. cerulean

    dmick89:
    There’s probably nothing I’d rather see less than this Skp and Shannon crap they keep advertising.

    Skip will make heaving gasbags great again.

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  14. uncle dave

    My god, I stepped into a meeting after the top of the fourth and it seemed like I was in there for an hour. Slow-ass game.

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  15. BVS

    A few weeks ago we were discussing announcers we hated…I forgot about The Biggest Ahole in Sports: Skip Bayless.

    Where’s Richard Sherman when we need him?

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  16. cerulean

    uncle dave:
    My god, I stepped into a meeting after the top of the fourth and it seemed like I was in there for an hour. Slow-ass game.

    The entire playoffs have like this. Nine-inning, low-scoring games shouldn’t take more than three hours.

    And yet it’s the sixth inning and two and a half have gone by.

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  17. berselius

    dmick89:
    I agree with Smoltz here. When it matters this much and they’re shifted like that, bunting is the obvious play.

    Smoltz has been fantastic. Thank the maker that McCarver retired.

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  18. BVS

    Perkins,

    i don’t understand why there wasn’t a pinch hitter for Heyward, but I assume it’s because we were ahead and Joe wants the D. But Almora is on the bench for this reason, right?

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  19. cerulean

    They should trade Baez for starting pitching.

    (dying laughing)(dying laughing)(dying laughing)(dying laughing)

    We are all idiots.

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  20. dmick89

    I agree with RtR. This many times through tbd order, almost any reliever in the Cubs pen would be better than Lester, especially any of the lefties out there.

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  21. Perkins

    BVS:
    Perkins,

    i don’t understand why there wasn’t a pinch hitter for Heyward, but I assume it’s because we were ahead and Joe wants the D.But Almora is on the bench for this reason, right?

    I’d honestly forgotten about Almora. I think Joe may have wanted to keep Roberts from bringing in Baez, but sticking with Heyward is an odd move.

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  22. Myles

    You almost have to leave Heyward off the WS roster if necessary. He looks like he has no idea what’s going on at the plate and his body language shows it. Maybe keep him as a defensive replacement.

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  23. Author
    myles

    berselius:
    Myles,

    It’s going to be quite the roster crunch with Schwarber back next year

    cerulean: Russell is too good at SS. Javy is too good at 2B.

    Agree with both. That said, Baez has to play every day. He just has to until he proves that he can’t. Zobrist might be the odd man out.

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  24. BVS

    dmick89,

    Disagree.

    Heyward Batting > 1 hr of non-stop campaign commercials >>>> Bayless and Shannon = Rosanne singing the National Anthem.

    But I’d take being forced to watch the Care Bears movie (again) over Heyward batting.

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  25. Author
    myles

    Basically, I want Contreras, Schwarber, Russell, Rizzo, Baez, and Bryant playing every day. Zobrist pretty much every day. Heyward pretty much every day. I’d like to re-sign Fowler and have him play every day. One of those people is the odd man out. Probably the one that isn’t actually on the team next year.

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  26. BVS

    myles,

    Assume Fowler walks, Heyward moves to CF and Zobrist to RF with the C/LF shuttle and Almora as the back up. When Almora comes in that shifts Heyward to RF and Zo to LF

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  27. Author
    myles

    BVS:
    myles,

    Assume Fowler walks, Heyward moves to CF and Zobrist to RF with the C/LF shuttle and Almora as the back up. When Almora comes in that shifts Heyward to RF and Zo to LF

    Basically my thoughts too. Problem: Fowler is just incredible and handsome.

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  28. Smokestack Lightning

    myles:
    Basically, I want Contreras, Schwarber, Russell, Rizzo, Baez, and Bryant playing every day. Zobrist pretty much every day. Heyward pretty much every day. I’d like to re-sign Fowler and have him play every day. One of those people is the odd man out. Probably the one that isn’t actually on the team next year.

    NL DH, please.

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  29. cerulean

    myles,

    Soler is the odd man out. I love his bat, but he is too injury prone. He needs to be a DH.

    If eight of nine of those you named play in a game, everybody gets used and everybody is rested. Nobody needs to have 700 PA’s on this team.

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  30. Smokestack Lightning

    BVS:
    myles,

    Assume Fowler walks, Heyward moves to CF and Zobrist to RF with the C/LF shuttle and Almora as the back up. When Almora comes in that shifts Heyward to RF and Zo to LF

    Could always flip one of them for Nolasco.

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  31. Smokestack Lightning

    Rizzo the Rat:
    I remember when Heyward was supposed to be Fowler’s replacement. An he was seen as an upgrade.

    I’m not giving up on Heyward yet. Offseason to work this shit with his swing out. Have to believe he’ll get it turned around.

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  32. BVS

    myles: Basically my thoughts too. Problem: Fowler is just incredible and handsome.

    True, but so are Addison and Javy. There’s a lot of studliness to go around on this team.

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  33. Smokestack Lightning

    Apparently Jon Lester has second best ERA in postseason history.

    I had no idea.

    Guess that’s pretty good.

    Also, Pete Rose is a twit.

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  34. Smokestack Lightning

    Fuck. Can’t help it. I’ve dreaded the words “Cubs heading home with two games to close it out,” for thirteen years.

    Now they’re here. And Kershaw’s saying them.

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