NL Central Offseason Whip-Around: St. Louis Cardinals

In Commentary And Analysis by berselius56 Comments

I've been my usual lazy self and not paid much attention to the goings on around the league this offseason. At least MLB has obliged by keeping things pretty quiet.

Next we'll take a look at the Cardinals, who somehow still employ Mike Matheny.

2017 Record: 83-79
2018 Projected Record: 87-75
Top projected hitter (ZiPS): Marcell Ozuna, 3.1
Top projected pitcher: Carlos Martinez, 4.2

Transactions of Note

  • Acquired Marcell Ozuna from Miami
  • Signed Bud Norris
  • Signed Luke Gregerson
  • Traded Randal Grichuk to Toronto
  • Traded Aledmys Diaz to Toronto
  • Traded Stephen Piscotty to Oakland
  • Zach Duke, Lance Lynn, Seung-Hwan Oh, Juan Nicasio all left as FAs

Projected regulars

  • C Yadier Molina
  • 1B Matt Carpenter
  • 2B Kolten Wong
  • SS Paul DeJong
  • 3B Jedd Gyorko
  • LF Marcell Ozuna
  • CF Tommy Pham
  • RF Dexter Fowler
  • SP Carlos Martinez
  • SP Adam Wainwright
  • SP Michael Wacha
  • SP Luke Weaver
  • SP Miles Mikolas
  • CL Luke Gregerson

Offseason storylines

The Cardinals made a lot of moves to deal with a suddenly crowded outfield after Ozuna fell into their laps early in the offseason. Grichuk felt like he was on his way out anyway, and given Tommy Pham's breakout last year Piscotty didn't have a lot of room either. The Cards have Ozuna under team control for two years, but I would be shocked if he didn't sign an extension with them like half a hundred other quality OFs that they've traded for in the past (Walker, Holliday, etc.).

Of course, they missed out on an even bigger name in their OF this season after Giancarlo Stanton said "Nah" after the Cards lined up a trade with the Marlins.

The big question mark could probably end up being their rotation after Carlos Martinez. Wainwright looks like a shell of a shell of his former self, and while they will get former top prospect Alex Reyes back in midseason it's hard to tell how much they can expect for this year – the current noise around him is some kind of nebulous long man/spot starter role, limited to 80-100 innings.

Yadier Molina is also another year older and beginning the first year of a 3/60 extension that he signed last spring. The projection systems still like him for this year but that's mostly on the back of his defensive numbers – no one seems to think that the bat will bounce back. He's said that he plans to retire after the 2020 season when his extension ends. Meanwhile the Cardinals are sitting on a great catching prospect in Carson Kelly who posted a .370 wOBA in AAA last year who won't even be able to start for another three seasons.

Tommy Pham is a little salty at getting renewed for near league minimum after posting a 6 WAR season. I don't blame him – he's somehow already 30 years old thanks to injuries early in his minor league career.

The Cardinals locked up SS Paul DeJong with a 6/26 extension following his breakout rookie season. I have a feeling we'll be seeing a lot more of these as players get spooked by last year's FA market, ala Eugenio Suarez.

Share this Post

Comments

  1. Berselius is too lazy to log in on his phone

    Justin Turner ————> broken wrist

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  2. dmick89

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Kelly takes over behind the plate by the end of the season. I don’t think the Cardinals expect Yadi to start for three more years. I think they signed him to that contract to be a mentor and help Kelly out. If you’re going to spend a lot of money on someone to be a mentor, I probably wouldn’t pick anyone other than Yadi. He’s the best defensive catcher I’ve ever seen and will probably be a manager at some point if he wants to get back into baseball.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  3. Author
    berselius

    Myles:
    Signing Miles Mikolas is probably a transaction of note.

    I just didn’t recognize the name when I went through the transaction list since he spent a couple of seasons in Japan. I saw some writeups on him when googling around for other Cardinals stories but was too lazy to update the list at the top of the article. Had to stay on #brand.

    For the extremely little it’s worth, he’s having an awful spring.

      Quote  Reply

    1

    0
  4. Perkins

    Hendricks——>strep throat

    Apparently he’s not expected to miss any time in the regular season though, so that’s good.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  5. Tyrone

    Matt Miller @nfldraftscout
    This might be weird coming from a draft analyst…but teams seriously over-value draft picks.
    49ers traded 1 pick for Jimmy Garoppolo.
    Jets had to trade 4 for the rights to draft a QB at No. 3 overall.

    I’ve been thinking about this for a while. I often find myself bummed that SF doesn’t have their second round pick and I have to remind myself they used that to get their potential franchise QB. Seems like a smart team might start using this to their advantage and trade draft picks for impact players.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  6. Tyrone

    Long considered to be a top-three pick, Bradley Chubb might be sliding down mock drafts after the Jets traded with the Colts to get to No. 3 in the upcoming NFL Draft. The move, which could signal a run on quarterbacks early in the draft, isn’t slowing down the N.C. State pass rusher, however.
    — PFT

    If he falls to 6, move up and draft him, SF.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  7. Tyrone

    Here’s my hot draft take for the day: I think FSU’s Josh Sweat might be my No. 2 EDGE in this class. He’s not as refined or “scheme diverse” as Chubb, but his ceiling is higher, imo. Get him in the right situation and he could end up being the best EDGE from this class.

    And I’m not so sure I wouldn’t mind SF taking him at No. 9…

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  8. dmick89

    I finished Lost last night. Definitely a top 5 favorite for me. I have no idea why people got so upset at Lindelof and Cuse. All I can say is that HBO better take Watchmen to series. It’s the best graphic novel ever and one of the best tv writers ever.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  9. dmick89

    JKV,

    Obviously all injuries are different and Turner’s doesn’t sound all that bad. He’ll only be in a brace for a few days. My guess is he’s back by the 3rd week of the season.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  10. dmick89

    It’s also worth pointing out that 45 is an outlier. He averaged about 30 per season over the previous few seasons and then into his 30s it dropped into the low 20s. Nothing about that is surprising. The 45 is what was surprising. That said, you never know how wrist injuries are going affect someone. Even a nagging, non-DL injury can have a major impact. I’m just not sure Derrek Lee is the best example.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  11. Perkins

    Rice Cube:
    Rumor du jour is that Alex Cobb is going to be an Oriole.

    Looks like 4/$60. He waited four months to get the same deal the Cubs reportedly offered him in November.

      Quote  Reply

    1

    0
  12. Myles

    Perkins:
    berselius,

    I’m kind of amazed that Jeter could go from being so good with the media as a player to so bad as an owner.

    “Here comes an opportunity to be a competent owner. The pitch…up the middle…Pasta Diving Jeter.”

      Quote  Reply

    2

    0
  13. Tyrone

    The MMQB @theMMQB
    Cleveland’s going to do as much work with Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen, but Sam Darnold looked like the No. 1 pick at his pro day yesterday (and more in @AlbertBreer’s Game Plan) trib.al/KlankO8

    Including Lamar Jackson, this is such an interesting draft group of QBs.

    You want the classic first overall pick material (Darnold)?
    Maybe an intellectual in Matt Ryan’s body (Rosen)?
    A more fiery Russell Wilson (Mayfield)?
    The second coming of Michael Vick (Lamar)?
    Or maybe the guy who looks like bad Brett Favre 90 percent of the time, but flashes peak Brett Favre (Allen)?

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  14. Tyrone

    https://twitter.com/alriveron/status/976522017796182016

    The narrative surrounding the Dez Bryant non-catch is insane (especially in Texas) with people acting like DAL would’ve won that game if the NFL ruled it a catch. Best case scenario is DAL goes up by 3. But then everybody forgets GB’s ensuing drive:

    1st and 10 at GB 33 (4:06) E.Lacy right end to GB 35 for 2 yards (B.Church).
    2nd and 8 at GB 35 (3:19) E.Lacy left end to GB 40 for 5 yards (N.Hayden).
    3rd and 3 at GB 40 (2:36) A.Rodgers pass short left to D.Adams to DAL 34 for 26 yards (J.Heath).
    1st and 10 at DAL 34 (2:24) PENALTY on GB-A.Quarless, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 34 – No Play.
    1st and 15 at DAL 39 (2:24) (E.Lacy left end to DAL 38 for 1 yard (B.Carter).
    2nd and 14 at DAL 38 (2:17) E.Lacy right end to DAL 35 for 3 yards (A.Hitchens).
    3rd and 11 at DAL 35 (2:00) A.Rodgers pass short right to R.Cobb to DAL 23 for 12 yards (O.Scandrick).
    Three kneeldowns.

    I mean, Rodgers got GB into easy FG range in two minutes while trying to milk the clock.

    Sorry, DAL. You weren’t going to win that game even if they called it a catch. And you might not even be playing in that game if the refs don’t give you a gift against DET the week before (https://youtu.be/tW4Ikqg0bW8?t=5m10s).

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  15. Tyrone

    Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter
    Another blockbuster trade: Giants trading DE Jason Pierre-Paul and a 2018 fourth-round pick to Buccaneers for a 2018 third-round pick and a fourth-round pick, source tells ESPN.

    woweyes

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  16. Mucker

    Tyrone,

    Ryno, I’ve heard Chubb is most likely a 4-3 DE in the NFL? Think he can play standing up? Can he bend? Bears meeting with him, not really sure why because he won’t be there at 8, so just curious if they are just doing their homework or if they plan on making a move to get him.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  17. Tyrone

    Mucker,

    First of all, as you know, I try not to think of someone as a 3-4 or 4-3 player. Nickel is the new base, so it’s more about what type of player you want.

    Chubb kinda reminds me of Shaq Lawson as a prospect in that he’s more of a technician than an athlete. He strikes me as a guy that’ll give you 8-10 sacks for the next decade. Not really exciting, but

    If you want a bender, you want Harold Landry or Josh Sweat. Seems like Landry might be destined for the top 20, but I’m not sure about Sweat. I think he’s better than Landry, but I don’t hear him being mentioned on the first day.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  18. Tyrone

    Matt Maiocco @MaioccoNBCS
    If not for Bill Belichick’s generosity, the #49ers would have gone as high as it would’ve taken (and then some) to get Kirk Cousins for Kyle Shanahan.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  19. Tyrone

    Mucker,

    Based on early returns? JimmyGQ. Easy. I’m a little concerned about what he’ll look like when defenses take away what he likes, but he’s in about the best situation possible for a young QB.

    We know what Cousins is and you have a pretty good idea what you get from him as your QB.

    The interesting thing for me was wondering (before he signed the extension) whether I’d trade JimmyGQ to CLE for their two first round picks. Cousins and the first and fourth overall picks in the draft or JimmyGQ?

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  20. Mucker

    Tyrone,

    Wow…you think CLE would trade that for Jimmy G? That’s a really tough question. Conventional wisdom says you take the picks and Cousins but I think I like Jimmy’s upside more than Cousins. Really tough though. If you’re the 49ers, I think it’s a win win either way.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  21. Tyrone

    Mucker,

    The going rate for a QB in his prime has typically been two first-round picks+. I’d totally give up 1 and 4 to have stability at QB for a decade.

    You’re right about conventional wisdom, but I’m still not sure I’d want that trade. It’s good if you’re a bottom tier team, but you need to maximize talent at every position to be a contender.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  22. Author
    berselius

    Wade Miley ——-> groin strain

    I could have sworn he pitched for the Brewers last year, but apparently I just think that he and Tommy Milone are the same person.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  23. Tyrone

    Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter
    Traded in 2018:


    Daryl Worley

    Every time I see that last name, I think of Gary Oldman in True Romance.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  24. Tyrone

    Irish Illustrated @PeteSampson_
    Asked Equanimeous St. Brown about what NFL teams want to know most about him. His answer was, well, yikes.

    “The most common question I get is do I love football because I went to Notre Dame and I speak languages. That’s the common question I get.”

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0

Leave a Comment