I figured I’d start a thread and update it if some relevant rumors start flying around about the Cubs. In the meantime, I’d like to quote tangotiger.
But, never, ever, ever, talk about things like he’ll be a net negative in the last two years of his (or anyone’s) deal. That’s a “duh” statement. That’s because Reyes, like all people, are human, and their bodies will break down.
I’ve tried to go over this many times when Cubs fans have talked about backloaded deals. You absolutely cannot look at the end of the contract without including the value provided above what he’s being paid early in the contract. Every player on the free agent market, if he signs a market value contract, will be in that situation. Let’s take a hypothetical 3 WAR player in 2012 and he signs for 4 years.
2012: 3 WAR
2013: 2.5 WAR
2014: 2.0 WAR
2015: 1.5 WAR
Starting at $5 million per win like Tango does for the the Jose Reyes contract and increasing by 5% each year we a 4-year, $47.8 million contract (we’ll go with $48 million). Here’s what it will look it each year:
Year: WAR, $WAR, Paid, Gain
2012: 3, $15, $12, $3
2013: 2.5, $13.1, $12, $1.1
2014: 2, $11, $12, -$1
2015: 1.5, $8.7, $12, -$3.3
The first two years you get more than you pay for while the last two years you’re paying for more than you are getting. The reason there is a $.2 million difference is because we increased the $47.8 million to $48 to keep things simple.
Every player who signs a market value contract will be the same.
————————————–
If the Cubs really are in on Albert Pujols, the Cardinals have yet to increase their offer. The Marlins will talk with him in the next couple days. More updates to come.
UPDATE 1: The Cubs did meet with Dan Lazano (agent for Pujols) today according to Rosenthal.
UPDATE 2: There is apparently some interest in Alfonso Soriano according to Heyman.
UPDATE 3: Theo Epstein appeared on MLB Network so here’s a summary of what he said.
Pujols’ agent also represents Rodrigo Lopez.
Scratch and claw and try to make 2012 Cubs better (doesn’t sound like a big signing to me).
Bunch of crap about sitting with Kevin Millar. Need the forest gif about right now.
Lots of listening so far, bringing in a bunch of guys, identifying areas where they can get better and build a system for sustained success.
Need to become top notch scouting department because of less room for error with new CBA.
Get young talent coming up each year and then combine with the resources the team has.
Asking for patience because it’s going to take awhile until they get to point where they can have sustained success. Gonna do it “the right way.”
Seems very confident in Dale Sveum.
Stupid question about what Theo now knows about the Cubs culture that he didn’t before.
He does add during that answer that the plan to contend may take awhile longer than a lot of fans think.
Millar asks whether or not he’s worth a Theo or Dempster in compensation with the Red Sox. Dumbass question.
———————————-
More updates coming later
UPDATE 4: Rosenthal says the Cubs have talked with CJ Wilson’s agent.
HOF Announcement: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=7270758
Santo —-> HOF
49ers—will beat the packers
[quote name=GBTS]Santo —-> HOF[/quote]
Cubs fans —> happy and a bit sad
Congratulations to Ron Santo. I am looking forward to the induction speech, which unfortunately will be more of an eulogy.
Congrats to Ron Santo for his HOF induction.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/ron-santo-elected-to-hall-of-fame.html
He’s in
bubbles cried.
July 22, 2012. Cooperstown, NY. Let’s make this the biggest induction celebration ever.
Riots optional.
Minnie Minoso didn’t make it. Guess he’ll have to die before they let him in.
[quote name=fang2415]Minnie Minoso didn’t make it. Guess he’ll have to die before they let him in.[/quote]I’m not sure if this deserves a positive or a negative faget point (dying laughing)
[quote name=GBTS]July 22, 2012. Cooperstown, NY. Let’s make this the biggest induction celebration ever.
Riots optional.[/quote]Road trip!
I found out in a damn cab….not the best place to let emotion seize the moment.
I think i might really go to cooperstown
(dying laughing) I have no idea who that is, it was just the first Google video hit.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I’m not sure if this deserves a positive or a negative faget point (dying laughing)[/quote]
There needs to be a third Thumb option. Like a thumbs up with a red background meaning “I like the post, but dislike the content” or something. Maybe a question mark.
[quote name=WaLi]There needs to be a third Thumb option. Like a thumbs up with a red background meaning “I like the post, but dislike the content” or something. Maybe a question mark.[/quote]Maybe when you mouseover the button, it could say “Insightful comment, although I disapprove of raping children!”
[quote name=WaLi]There needs to be a third Thumb option. Like a thumbs up with a red background meaning “I like the post, but dislike the content” or something. Maybe a question mark.[/quote]A question mark should be the what-is-this-i-dont-even button.
Congrats to Ron, better late than never.
Now I can go back to not caring about the HOF until Sosa is elgible.
Santo’s heel click got really really green.
I love that picture though.
[quote name=Berselius]Congrats to Ron, better late than never.
Now I can go back to not caring about the HOF until Bonds and Clemens are elgible.[/quote]That year should be loads of fun.
[quote name=Rice Cube]That year should be loads of fun.[/quote]Especially when Clemens gets a higher vote total than Bonds.
So, with Santo in, who’s the new cause célèbre for the Hall of Fame? Tim Raines?
SRS though, it is sometimes sad and sometimes just weird how a “death boost” can transform somebody’s public image. Whenever a president dies, they temporarily become the Greatest President Evar, even if it’s Ford (dying laughing).
It’s a shame that that’s what it took for Santo to get over the top. He was much better at his job, and at sports, than Gerald Ford ever was. (dying laughing)
Annd okay, the political discussion will stop now.
[quote name=ACT]So, with Santo in, who’s the new cause célèbre for the Hall of Fame? Tim Raines?[/quote]That sounds right. I forgot how many years he has left on the ballot.
[quote name=@Iracaine]If anyone wants to send Ron Santo a congratulatory fax into the afterlife, the WGN radio fax number is (773) 244-3971.[/quote]
(dying laughing)
[quote name=fang2415]SRS though, it is sometimes sad and sometimes just weird how a “death boost” can transform somebody’s public image. Whenever a president dies, they temporarily become the Greatest President Evar, even if it’s Ford (dying laughing).
It’s a shame that that’s what it took for Santo to get over the top. He was much better at his job, and at sports, than Gerald Ford ever was. (dying laughing)
Annd okay, the political discussion will stop now.[/quote]Not really a death boost for Santo. New group of (competent) voters.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Not really a death boost for Santo. New group of (competent) voters.[/quote]I did wonder, however, whether any of the media asked the voting committee why Santo had to die before they’d let him in. Probably not in such harsh words, but that’s pretty much what 99% of the interwebs is thinking right now.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Not really a death boost for Santo. New group of (competent) voters.[/quote]
It will be interesting to see what kind of games they play with the VC going forward. It seemed to me that all the changes they made in the last 10 years or so smelled like extremely indirect push to get Santo elected by higher-ups who couldn’t just decree it. Santo deserved to be elected 25 years ago, but this whole process through which he was elected was a complete mess.
Yeah, that too. But given that they change the system like every two years, it’s tough to compare like with like.
[quote name=Berselius]It will be interesting to see what kind of games they play with the VC going forward. It seemed to me that all the changes they made in the last 10 years or smelled like extremely indirect push to get Santo elected by higher-ups who couldn’t just decree it. Santo deserved to be elected 25 years ago, but this whole process through which he was elected was a complete mess.[/quote]Yeah, I wondered about that, but neither know enough nor really care enough about HOF politics to form an educated opinion. Interesting that 3 out of 16 guys on this committee were Chicagoans…
[quote name=ACT]So, with Santo in, who’s the new cause célèbre for the Hall of Fame? Tim Raines?[/quote]Hopefully.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I did wonder, however, whether any of the media asked the voting committee why Santo had to die before they’d let him in. Probably not in such harsh words, but that’s pretty much what 99% of the interwebs is thinking right now.[/quote]
How many of those guys were really on the past panels though? It seemed to me like the BBWAA/Cooperstown were basically just randomly drawing people into each committee. It feels like he was elected because he was finally lucky enough to get right draw. Right decision, wrong process.
No one will care in 20 years though. Plaques hang forever.
I’m guessing they take them down from time to time for purposes of cleaning and/or painting so you are not correct. (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]I’m guessing they take them down from time to time for purposes of cleaning and/or painting so you are not correct. (dying laughing)[/quote]
Are you an expert on the proper care and cleaning of plaques or museums? If not, GTFO.
[quote name=Berselius]How many of those guys were really on the past panels though? It seemed to me like the BBWAA/Coopoerstown were basically just randomly drawing people into each committee. It feels like he was elected because he was finally lucky enough to get right draw. Right decision, wrong process.
No one will care in 20 years though. Plaques hang forever.[/quote]I kind of assumed that guys like Billy Williams would be on the previous veterans committees and were shouted down when trying to vote for Santo, but like fang I don’t know enough about how the process works.
I wonder if they’d put Rickey Henderson on Raines’ committee in a few years. The conversation in that room when they vote should be immortalized on DVD (dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]I kind of assumed that guys like Billy Williams would be on the previous veterans committees and were shouted down when trying to vote for Santo, but like fang I don’t know enough about how the process works. [/quote]
Isn’t it secret ballot?
[quote name=MGL]Are you an expert on the proper care and cleaning of plaques or museums? If not, GTFO.[/quote]That makes me want to go an irritate MGL.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I kind of assumed that guys like Billy Williams would be on the previous veterans committees and were shouted down when trying to vote for Santo, but like fang I don’t know enough about how the process works.
I wonder if they’d put Rickey Henderson on Raines’ committee in a few years. The conversation in that room when they vote should be immortalized on DVD (dying laughing)[/quote]Any conversation with Ricky is an entertaining one.
[quote name=Berselius]Isn’t it secret ballot?[/quote]I thought smaller committees would actually hold discussions on who to induct. Perhaps I am mistaken.
Impeccable logic: http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/Denver-Broncos-Tim-Tebow-is-most-valuable-player-in-NFL-right-now-120411
[quote name=Mish]Impeccable logic: http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/Denver-Broncos-Tim-Tebow-is-most-valuable-player-in-NFL-right-now-120411/quote
I’m sure he’s right, provided your valuation system is:
Is this player named Tim Tebow? + 100 points
Else: GTFO
[quote name=Mish]Impeccable logic: http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/Denver-Broncos-Tim-Tebow-is-most-valuable-player-in-NFL-right-now-120411/quote
Tim Tebow’s Success Inspiring Other Teams To Start Shitty Quarterbacks
http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/tim-tebows-success-inspiring-other-teams-to-start,26787/
Since we’re on a Tebow tangent:
It wasn’t a year too late for Santo. It was 31 years too late.
Cubs —————> meet with Pujols’s agent.
http://twitter.com/#!/Ken_Rosenthal/statuses/143766350257590273
Also:
Goold of Post-Dispatch fame says Cards owner told him payroll to be around 110MM. Cards have 80MM committed to eight players.
http://twitter.com/#!/dgoold/status/143732443424366592
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]Also:
Goold of Post-Dispatch fame says Cards owner told him payroll to be around 110MM. Cards have 80MM committed to eight players.
http://twitter.com/#!/dgoold/status/143732443424366592/quoteI'm beginning to wonder if the Cardinals are secretly hoping Pujols signs with another team. If their payroll remains 110M they are going to be hamstrung by his contract for a long time.
Last one for now:
Andrew Friedman —————> likely to turn down ‘Stros.
http://twitter.com/#!/BillShaikin/status/143759840395804672
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]Last one for now:
Any competent GM —————> likely to turn down ‘Stros.
http://twitter.com/#!/BillShaikin/status/143759840395804672/quote
/harsh
[quote name=JMan]I’m beginning to wonder if the Cardinals are secretly hoping Pujols signs with another team. If their payroll remains 110M they are going to be hamstrung by his contract for a long time.[/quote]
I’m beginning to think regardless of how the Pujols thing turns out, the Cubs win.
If he leaves the division it makes things easier. If he signs with the Cubs it makes them a shit-ton better right away. If he signs with the Cards, they fuck themselves long-term because they can’t hang payroll-wise with a contract like that.
http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2011/12/05/125-vicki-santo-it-was-meant-to-be/
Doesn’t seem to be too many sour grapes from the Santo clan so far. I’m glad that they’re celebrating rather than lamenting what could have been.
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]I’m beginning to think regardless of how the Pujols thing turns out, the Cubs win.
If he leaves the division it makes things easier. If he signs with the Cubs it makes them a shit-ton better right away. If he signs with the Cards, they fuck themselves long-term because they can’t hang payroll-wise with a contract like that.[/quote]
That’s the beauty of being a large market team and having the Superfriends in the driver’s seat. You know we aren’t going to overpay by too much and but we are going to improve the team.
I really wish he was here. But i am glad his family gets to enjoy this as well.
It does anger me that if it was 368 days earlier he would have been the happiest person ever..
This might sound silly but you never know how that type of joy would have helped him beat cancer. I do bellieve in positivity at times
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]It does anger me that if it was 368 days earlier he would have been the happiest person ever..
This might sound silly but you never know how that type of joy would have helped him beat cancer. I do bellieve in positivity at times[/quote]I don’t think positivity was a factor with Santo finally dying. He was about as positive as a human being can get.
[quote name=Aisle424]I don’t think positivity was a factor with Santo finally dying. He was about as positive as a human being can get.[/quote]Anyone who can cheer as loudly as he did while watching the team fail so epically almost every day for two decades is the epitome of positivity.
I don’t think Ron Santo would’ve wanted anyone to hold a grudge. He’d probably be jumping up and down or whatever the equivalent is that he would have been capable of with his prosthestic legs.
[quote name=Aisle424]I don’t think positivity was a factor with Santo finally dying. He was about as positive as a human being can get.[/quote]
Yea i think there just might be a chance that it could have willed him to make it to july for his speech.. Then then 2011 Cubs would have killed him
From The Wrigley Blog:
[quote name=Mish]
[/quote]
wow, thats an awesome pic. any idea when it was taken?
[quote name=dylanj]you were indeed right about Smith. But I was right about the niners being for real earlier this season when you were down on them. So suck it[/quote]
I’m still not really high on them. The offense seems capable of producing enough points, but not yet. I think they end up with the No. 2 seed and get bounced by NO in their first game.
[quote name=Snyds01]wow, thats an awesome pic. any idea when it was taken?[/quote]
Out of an airplane window. More here:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/100-incredible-views-out-of-airplane-windows
[quote name=Snyds01]wow, thats an awesome pic. any idea when it was taken?[/quote]
Right after your dad said, “Let me have a straight son or a foggy day.”
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Right after your dad said, “Let me have a straight son or a foggy day.”[/quote]
Would neg rep if I could.
[quote name=Snyds01]wow, thats an awesome pic. any idea when it was taken?[/quote]A cloudy day.
[quote name=Mish]Out of an airplane window.[/quote](dying laughing) Thanks for clearing that up.
[quote name=GBTS](dying laughing) Thanks for clearing that up.[/quote]Could have been out of an alien spaceship…
I didn’t know you had a cat, MB.
January 17, 2010. united airlines 5705
credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kpat/4283856762/
(dying laughing) nobody was going to ask Heath Bell a question
[quote name=Aisle424]I didn’t know you had a cat, MB.
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) nobody was going to ask Heath Bell a question[/quote]
Hey, Heath. What’s it like being named after a fucking faget candy bar?
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Hey, Heath. What’s it like being named after a fucking faget candy bar?[/quote]
That question comes from a friend of mine.
MLB Network talking about whoever the closer was for the Marlins last year: if you take away his blown saves….
If you take away all the outs that Soriano made last year he was fucking impressive.
From http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/7349/ron-santo-nearing-hall-entry
[quote name=mb21]MLB Network talking about Leo Nunez: if you take away his actual identity….
If you take away all the outs that Soriano made last year he was fucking Juan Oviedo.[/quote]
.
[quote name=mb21]MLB Network talking about whoever the closer was for the Marlins last year: if you take away his blown saves….
If you take away all the outs that Soriano made last year he was fucking impressive.[/quote]If you take away the Cubs’ losses last year, it’s really hard to figure out how they didn’t win the division.
By the year 2946 every person who played between those years will be in the Hall of Fame.
Soriano’s wife is probably pissed off.
she should have seen it coming
[quote name=mb21]Soriano’s wife is probably pissed off.[/quote]
(dying laughing)
[quote name=GW]she should have seen it coming
[/quote]Man, I miss that truck. Now Soriano drives a bright white RR convertible. Other than massive chrome wheels, it’s surprisingly classy looking. During Castro’s first home stand with the major-league team, I was riding my bike home from work and AS and Castro pulled up next to me at a stop light in the RR with the top down. Castro was just wide-eyed and staring at all the tall buildings and short skirts. I yelled “Hey Castro!” and gave him a thumbs-up and he smiled and waved. When the light turned green they sped off, probably anxious to get to whatever free booze and blowjobs party pro-atheletes go to. Meanwhile, I huffed and puffed my shitty mountain bike home so I could feed my cat.
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]Meanwhile, I huffed and puffed my shitty mountain bike home so I could feed my cat.[/quote]
.
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]Man, I miss that truck. Now Soriano drives a bright white RR convertible. Other than massive chrome wheels, it’s surprisingly classy looking. During Castro’s first home stand with the major-league team, I was riding my bike home from work and AS and Castro pulled up next to me at a stop light in the RR with the top down. Castro was just wide-eyed and staring at all the tall buildings and short skirts. I yelled “Hey Castro!” and gave him a thumbs-up and he smiled and waved. When the light turned green they sped off, probably anxious to get to whatever free booze and blowjobs party pro-atheletes go to. Meanwhile, I huffed and puffed my shitty mountain bike home so I could feed my cat.[/quote]
I’m sorry. I was thinking about cats again.
[quote name=Aisle424]I’m sorry. I was thinking about cats again.[/quote]
Is that a double entendre?
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[quote name=fang2415]Is that a double entendre?
I didn’t know “roy” was slang for cock back then.
[quote name=Suburban kid]I didn’t know “roy” was slang for cock back then.[/quote]…and thus a new meme was born.
Roysucker.
Theo coming up on MLB Network in a minute
Wow, Millar really is like that.
I updated this post with what little info Theo added.
[quote name=Suburban kid]I didn’t know “roy” was slang for cock back then.[/quote]If you’re a left-handed Marlon Byrd, it is.
[quote name=mb21]I updated this post with what little info Theo added.[/quote]Sounds like no big signings, I agree. Based on your summary, sounds like he’s prepping Cubs fans for 2-3 year rebuild. All of that may be a front for efforts to get in on a big signing though. Who knows. I’d be more than amenable to a 5/150 for Pujols.
Brewers, Natinals ——-> out of running for Prince
Natinals ——-> out of running for Pujols
That’s what I got out of it, Nate. He mentioned two or three times doing it the right way and building from within, One time he even mentioned something about adding free agents (presumably elite talent) after the system was producing players each year. That made me think this isn’t 2 or 3 years, but maybe 5 or 6 years.
That may be why he has a 5-year deal. Phase 1 is to build the farm system and begin to produce talent with a steady stream coming up. That’s going to take 5 years. If they traded Garza, Soto, Marmol and Marshall it would probably still take 3 years.
They’re not going to punt on any season, but they’re running the ball on 3rd and 30. (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]
They’re not going to punt on any season, but they’re running the ball on 3rd and 30. (dying laughing)[/quote]Here’s hoping they don’t fumble then.
[quote name=mb21]That’s what I got out of it, Nate. He mentioned two or three times doing it the right way and building from within, One time he even mentioned something about adding free agents (presumably elite talent) after the system was producing players each year. That made me think this isn’t 2 or 3 years, but maybe 5 or 6 years.
That may be why he has a 5-year deal. Phase 1 is to build the farm system and begin to produce talent with a steady stream coming up. That’s going to take 5 years. If they traded Garza, Soto, Marmol and Marshall it would probably still take 3 years.
They’re not going to punt on any season, but they’re running the ball on 3rd and 30. (dying laughing)[/quote]At the same time he could also be using it to communicate to agents that he’s not going to overpay for FA. It’s weird but I over-analyze everything he says. I guess maybe because I trust that the FO is competent.
That’s the spirit Theo. And I’m sure the pennant-starved fan base will have the patience to wait it out until the first ever infallible scouting department produces nine twenty-five year old all-stars making league minimum. In the meantime let’s all sit back and enjoy another five 85-90 loss seasons believing in a process that is no guarantee in and of itself to work either.
More has to be done than this imo or it’s entirely possible none of this shit gets better. The point of Theo was to spend big everywhere, leave no stone unturned, yada yada. He’s channeling MacPhail right now.
Here’s hoping it’s just a ruse.
That also could mean that he is less than optimistic in landing the international free agents, or maybe he’s not as impressed with them anymore after all the scrutiny they’ve given them.
i liked theo’s answer that he met with Dan Lozano to talk about Rodrigo Lopez. Good stuff
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]That’s the spirit Theo. And I’m sure the pennant-starved fan base will have the patience to wait it out until the first ever infallible scouting department produces nine twenty-five year old all-stars making league minimum. In the meantime let’s all sit back and enjoy another five 85-90 loss seasons believing in a process that is no guarantee in and of itself to work either.
More has to be done than this imo or it’s entirely possible none of this shit gets better. The point of Theo was to spend big everywhere, leave no stone unturned, yada yada. He’s channeling MacPhail right now.
Here’s hoping it’s just a ruse.[/quote]This might be the part in poker where the guy pretends he has nothing and after several rounds of raises, then snags the pot with an ace-high straight.
I just realized today that the Bears are going to lose in DEN and that hack Tebow will get credit for yet another win he doesn’t deserve credit for and now I’m pissed off.
[quote name=mb21]That’s what I got out of it, Nate. He mentioned two or three times doing it the right way and building from within, One time he even mentioned something about adding free agents (presumably elite talent) after the system was producing players each year. That made me think this isn’t 2 or 3 years, but maybe 5 or 6 years.
That may be why he has a 5-year deal. Phase 1 is to build the farm system and begin to produce talent with a steady stream coming up. That’s going to take 5 years. If they traded Garza, Soto, Marmol and Marshall it would probably still take 3 years.
They’re not going to punt on any season, but they’re running the ball on 3rd and 30. (dying laughing)[/quote]
The only thing is that the baseball operations budget is going to remain the same, around 200M. Since they can’t spend it in the draft and internationally the way they planned to, it seems like they have to spend some of it in FA. That’s not to say they should just throw money away, there’s no way they do that thankfully. I wonder if they might still just go big in next years draft and pay the damn taxes. Seems kinda inefficient thought, especially considering the loss of picks. My guess is that when it comes down to it, Theo is gonna sign one of the following: Fielder, Pujols, Wilson, Darvish, Cespedes, or make a trade for an expensive player who is still good. Hell I wouldn’t be surprised if he traded for Texiera and the Yankess signed Pujols. Wouldn;t surprise me one damn bit. All I’m saying is the money is gonna be spent, up to having he payroll to at least 120M, because there’s less of an incentive to save from the ML payroll since it can’t be spent on Intl/draft.
[quote name=Rice Cube]This might be the part in poker where the guy pretends he has nothing and after several rounds of raises, then snags the pot with an ace-high straight.[/quote]
That’s my hope, because if another 5-6 years in the wilderness is what we have to look forward to, then I honestly wonder what happened to Theo on the way from Boston. The “Right Way” for a big-market organization is to go just as hard in free agency when the big-time players are there and just as hard in player development. The two are not mutually exclusive. If this is the road Theo is going to take, then the Cubs are not a big-market organization period and we should stop acting like they are.
Waiting 5-6 years to contend in the NL is bullshit for a team with the embarassment of resources the Cubs have at their disposal now. Steinbrenner would’ve already had Theo buried in the bowels of Yankee stadium with Papi’s jersey if he’d said such a thing and meant it.
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]That’s my hope, because if another 5-6 years in the wilderness is what we have to look forward to, then I honestly wonder what happened to Theo on the way from Boston. The “Right Way” for a big-market organization is to go just as hard in free agency when the big-time players are there and just as hard in player development. The two are not mutually exclusive. If this is the road Theo is going to take, then the Cubs are not a big-market organization period and we should stop acting like they are.
Waiting 5-6 years to contend in the NL is bullshit for a team with the embarassment of resources the Cubs have at their disposal now. Steinbrenner would’ve already had Theo buried in the bowels of Yankee stadium with Papi’s jersey if he’d said such a thing and meant it.[/quote]Pure conjecture, but I think an experienced GM like Theo and a capable lieutenant like Jed Hoyer probably know that there are certain things that you can say, and a certain window of opportunity to have the best shot at signing the free agents you want. Their challenge might be to convince guys like Pujols that it is okay to come to Chicago even though they might not contend until 2013. So they have to put up as much of a poker face as possible, which is why we’re getting ambiguous sound bytes that suggest the Cubs are going to spend big one day and then make the fans think “rebuild” the next.
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]That’s my hope, because if another 5-6 years in the wilderness is what we have to look forward to, then I honestly wonder what happened to Theo on the way from Boston. The “Right Way” for a big-market organization is to go just as hard in free agency when the big-time players are there and just as hard in player development. The two are not mutually exclusive. If this is the road Theo is going to take, then the Cubs are not a big-market organization period and we should stop acting like they are.
Waiting 5-6 years to contend in the NL is bullshit for a team with the embarassment of resources the Cubs have at their disposal now. Steinbrenner would’ve already had Theo buried in the bowels of Yankee stadium with Papi’s jersey if he’d said such a thing and meant it.[/quote]Keep in mind that Theo can’t spend money Ricketts can’t/won’t give him to spend.
Ricketts said awhile back the entire baseball budget was $150 million.
I don’t know what Theo meant by what he said, but what he did say makes sense to me. They do have to have talent coming up in order to contend on an annual basis. Either that or they continue to increase the payroll every couple of years and the Cubs just aren’t the Yankees. They don’t make the kind of money they do so that’s not happening.
I also think it’s fairly easy for Theo to say it’s going to take longer than some fans think. He’s basically the equivalent of a baseball God to a lot of Cubs fans (most of them?) at this point. After 2012 he won’t be. The Cubs will lose 85 or more games and Cubs fans aren’t patient. If they don’t improve in year 2 Theo is in for a beating by the media and fans. He didn’t face that in Boston because he took over a great team and maintained it.
I agree with this. I expect they will spend big money eventually, but I’m not thinking it’s going to be this year or next.
Matt Capps ————> Twins
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/twins-close-to-deal-with-matt-capps.html
A somewhat reliable birdie told me that we made an offer to Pujols. 5 years $29m-$33m per season with an option a 6th season.
Take it with a couple grains of salt, however I thought it would make good convo about years vs. money/year.
[quote name=mb21]I agree with this. I expect they will spend big money eventually, but I’m not thinking it’s going to be this year or next.[/quote]
Theo keeps talking about how the fan base will be patient, but will they? Throw in another plodding 90 loss season or two (your new and improved fourth place Cubs! Now with incrementally better UZR and EqBRR!) and I’m thinking nobody gives a shit what Theo’s plan is.
Look at me, I think of myself as fairly patient Cubs fan, and I’ve long waited for the day the likes of Theo would be in charge of things, but we’re not even past the first day of the winter meetings and I’ve practically put my fist through my computer monitor.
But then, as MO astutely put it, perhaps this is on Ricketts. Theo can’t spend what Ricketts won’t give him.
Or perhaps Theo is about to Prove Me Wrong.
Except the FA players they will likely need won’t be there to throw money at this time. I love pitching and defense as much as the next fan, but those Red Sox teams fucking mashed the baseball.
I’m still upset the Cubs are winless under Theo.
[quote name=jtsunami]A somewhat reliable birdie told me that we made an offer to Pujols. 5 years $29m-$33m per season with an option a 6th season.
Take it with a couple grains of salt, however I thought it would make good convo about years vs. money/year.[/quote]Has this guy had reliable info before?
I’ll look at the $WAR chart for that in a minute.
http://twitter.com/#!/CarrieMuskat/status/143843838237224961
OK, now we know Theo’s bluffing.
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]Theo keeps talking about how the fan base will be patient, but will they? Throw in another plodding 90 loss season or two (your new and improved fourth place Cubs! Now with incrementally better UZR and EqBRR!) and I’m thinking nobody gives a shit what Theo’s plan is.
Look at me, I think of myself as fairly patient Cubs fan, and I’ve long waited for the day the likes of Theo would be in charge of things, but we’re not even past the first day of the winter meetings and I’ve practically put my fist through my computer monitor.
But then, as MO astutely put it, perhaps this is on Ricketts. Theo can’t spend what Ricketts won’t give him.
Or perhaps Theo is about to Prove Me Wrong.[/quote]I’m not upset. I honestly didn’t expect the Cubs to be active this winter so it’s not surprising.
As for whether this is on Ricketts or not, Ricketts has said that Theo can sign Pujols if he wants. The money is there. The baseball operations expenses will remain at about $150 million and I’d assume we’ll see some increases in future years. Especially if the Cubs find themselves in contention and get some playoff money. I don’t think it’s a money issue. I think Thoyer is looking at this team as the 5-bank shot he mentioned in his introductory press conference.
[quote name=ACT]http://twitter.com/#!/CarrieMuskat/status/143843838237224961
OK, now we know Theo’s bluffing.[/quote]I don’t know about that. Theo or Hoyer mentioned that they needed to be 9 starting pitchers deep. They need 9 MLB starting pitchers and the team has about 4. They can’t sign CJ Wilson, Roy Oswalt, Mark Buehrle and trade for 2 other starters. Some of those 9 are going to be guys like Rodrigo Lopez.
Starting Pujols at 6 wins and value per win at $5 million (5% inflation), Pujols is worth $159 million. $29 million per year would be overpaying him by $15 million. Not terrible, but not exactly a good contract either. 5 years @ $29 million per year $136.8 million and Pujols would be worth $128 million.
Using 5.5 WAR starting point, $4.5 million per win (5% inflation), he’s worth $110 million. If the Cubs value him at 6.5 WAR in 2012 and start the win value at 5 million he’s worth more than $29 million per year.
Zambrano has given up 3 home runs in 13.1 VWL innings.
[quote name=mb21]Zambrano has given up 3 home runs in 13.1 VWL innings.[/quote]Could that be a function of the elevation in Venezuela? Seems like he’s had little trouble striking guys out though.
fuck Pujols, I want Rodrigo Lopez
don’t know why that wasn’t in a quote box
[quote name=Rice Cube]Could that be a function of the elevation in Venezuela? Seems like he’s had little trouble striking guys out though.[/quote]I closed the page, but I think he struckout 12. Part of the HR could be elevation, but that’s a terrible rate if you played in Colorado and brought the fence in 30 feet.
But it is only 13.2 innings so…
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]don’t know why that wasn’t in a quote box[/quote]If the quoted text has brackets it won’t quote it. No big deal.
I think the Pujols sweepstakes is down to the Marlins and Cardinals. I never thought the Cubs interest was real. I figured it was just to make the Cardinals pay more, but the Marlins are doing that for them.
http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2011/12/05/125-lahair-ready-for-next-year/
This guy hit one off Zambrano.
I’d love to see Pujols sign with the Marlins. Reyes, Ramirez and Pujols in the same lineup. That would be fun to watch.
Kind of pisses me off that the Fish are using taxpayer money like this.
[quote name=ACT]Kind of pisses me off that the Fish are using taxpayer money like this.[/quote]It will be interesting to see how the SEC investigation goes.
Did Rosenthal just say the Cubs are involved in the CJ Wilson discussions?
[quote name=mb21]It will be interesting to see how the SEC investigation goes.[/quote]That is, hands down, the most dominant federal agency in the executive branch.
[quote name=mb21]Did Rosenthal just say the Cubs are involved in the CJ Wilson discussions?[/quote]I heard that about an hour ago. I don’t think they’re serious. Seems like everything the Cubs are doing is intended as putting out feelers, but then again I have no clue what their plan is, so…
[quote name=Rice Cube]I heard that about an hour ago. I don’t think they’re serious. Seems like everything the Cubs are doing is intended as putting out feelers, but then again I have no clue what their plan is, so…[/quote]I’m fine with putting out feelers, but that’s also a huge waste of time. Wilson has a 6-year deal on the table supposedly. Let him take that contract and be happy you didn’t give it to him. I’m fine with LaHair at 1st base. Get a 3rd baseman and trade Soriano.
mlbtr says the Pads are asking for “the Moon” in exchange for Chase Headley. If the Cubs want him, it would probably take more than Marmol.
[quote name=ACT]mlbtr says the Pads are asking for “the Moon” in exchange for Chase Headley. If the Cubs want him, it would probably take more than Marmol.[/quote]Marmol can pull down his pants when he gets to SD.
[quote name=mb21]I’d love to see Pujols sign with the Marlins. Reyes, Ramirez and Pujols in the same lineup. That would be fun to watch.[/quote]
not to mention mike stanton and lomo.
[quote name=ACT]Kind of pisses me off that every sports franchise is using taxpayer money like this.[/quote]
Fixed
[quote name=ACT]mlbtr says the Pads are asking for “the Moon” in exchange for Chase Headley. If the Cubs want him, it would probably take more than Marmol.[/quote]
It’s too bad Carlos Silva isn’t on the roster
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning
But then, as MO astutely put it, perhaps this is on Ricketts. Theo can't spend what Ricketts won't give him..[/quote]
Ricketts said several times in the past week or two that he’s willing to open the checkbook for a player like Pujols if Theo makes the case that it’s in the best interest of the team. How you read that is entirely up to how you feel about Tom Ricketts (FWIW, I believe him).
On a related note, this Rodrigo Lopez crap from Theo seems like a smoke screen to me.
[quote name=ACT]mlbtr says the Pads are asking for “the Moon” in exchange for Chase Headley. If the Cubs want him, it would probably take more than Marmol.[/quote]That discussion was caught on film:
Josh Byrnes is hot.
[quote name=Berselius]It’s too bad Carlos Silva isn’t on the roster[/quote]That’s no moon…
[quote name=Rice Cube]That’s no moon…[/quote]
I’ve got a bad feeling about this.
[quote name=GBTS]That is, hands down, the most dominant federal agency in the executive branch.[/quote]
For serious? I’ve always heard that it was pretty toothless, unless you’re an easy target like Martha Stewart.
http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/2011/12/5/2612547/best-cry-ever-ivon-padilla-rodriguez-calls-dr-pepper-the-best-thing
Watch that youtube link. See if you catch the first line of play-by-play for that winner. Then you can watch her cry and its pretty funny.
[quote name=Berselius]For serious? I’ve always heard that it was pretty toothless, unless you’re an easy target like Martha Stewart.[/quote]I guess no one got that for the bad college football joke it was.
[quote name=ACT]mlbtr says the Pads are asking for “the Moon” in exchange for Chase Headley. If the Cubs want him, it would probably take more than Marmol.[/quote]Lots of teams might think a player from the ML team is overpaying due to Headleys lack of power. I dont think he’s highly coveted especially since his price tag is going up.
Nats offered Wilson 6 years. Wilson, Strasburg, Zimmerman is a pretty good top 3. I’m trying to remember how their offense was last year.
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]Nats offered Wilson 6 years. Wilson, Strasburg, Zimmerman is a pretty good top 3. I’m trying to remember how their offense was last year.[/quote]Bad.
In terms of OPS+, the Nats were ahead of only Pirates and Padres, tied with Giants, Astros.
[quote name=ACT]In terms of OPS+, the Nats were ahead of only Pirates and Padres, tied with Giants, Astros.[/quote]Zimmerman was hurt for awhile. Are they expecting a Bryce Harper arrival this year?
I should clarify. It could be that Ricketts can’t give Theo all the money he would need to put a truly competitive product on the field rather than won’t.
Anyhow, given the new CBA and the reality of the organization as it stands currently, I think it would be a big mistake for Theo to essentially punt on the next half decade waiting for the farm system to come around.Even the best amateur talent is not immune to the fickle bitchiness of Lady Luck, and the best farm systems miss far more than they hit. There is zero guarantee we’re going to have much of a young core in three or four years and the upcoming free agent crops are going to get dicier and dicier as teams continue to buy out the best years of their young players. That’s why I believe Theo should spend big this offseason and next to give the farm system proper cover, so that guys aren’t rushed and so there’s less chance he’s forced into dealing too many of them to speed up the process. Spread the risk.
[quote name=Aisle424]Zimmerman was hurt for awhile. Are they expecting a Bryce Harper arrival this year?[/quote]
Werth should bounce back too. He’s probably not worth what they’re paying him, but he’s also much better than his putrid line from last year.
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]I should clarify. It could be that Ricketts can’t give Theo all the money he would need to put a truly competitive product on the field rather than won’t.
[/quote]
Even more money comes off the books after 2012 so they might be able to absorb one year riding the line until they get that breathing room. I think the $150MM quoted by MB is more of a general guideline than set in stone.
I don’t know for sure that they’ll spend that money, but it’s there…just a matter of what they think is wisest, I guess.
Lots of leaks coming from all teams that aren’t the Cubs makes me think that they’re not going to do much, though. Or else Theo just doesn’t like to talk to the media despite all those Tuesday press conferences.
If Pujols is going to Miami as it seems may be possible, and the Brewers aren’t re-signing Fielder, then the “weaken the competition” strategy is no longer necessary and perhaps the Cubs figured this out and will try something else.
[quote name=Rice Cube]If Pujols is going to Miami as it seems may be possible, and the Brewers aren’t re-signing Fielder, then the “weaken the competition” strategy is no longer necessary and perhaps the Cubs figured this out and will try something else.[/quote]The Cubs don’t have to get better, the other teams just have to get worse.
Nats ——————-> Not interested in Wilson, heart Buehrle.
https://twitter.com/#!/AdamKilgoreWP/status/143891856869167106
[quote name=Aisle424]Zimmerman was hurt for awhile. Are they expecting a Bryce Harper arrival this year?[/quote]There’s no way Harper has much impact in 2012. He’ll start in the minors (AA, I assume), and if he comes up at all, it will be late in the season. I also don’t think his bat is yet developed enough to be potent in the big leagues.
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]Nats ——————-> Not interested in Wilson, heart Buehrle.
https://twitter.com/#!/AdamKilgoreWP/status/143891856869167106/quoteMy feeling at this point in the Winter Meetings is that the tail is wagging the dog, big time.
This is different…
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/05/report-cardinals-shopping-kyle-lohse-to-make-room-for-mark-buehrle/
The dog’s tail, wagging wildly, says the Marlins increased their offer to 10 years.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/albert-pujols-rumors-monday.html
deleeted. ((dying laughing), the fuck is SK doing up stealing the Lightning’s thunder? Off to bed with you, Kid.
Also, Z thinks he’ll be back, glad to see Hendry and Riggins gone. (Or perhaps those two were the least likely of Cubs people to accept his return)
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-1206-cubs-bits–20111206,0,6384485.story?track=rss
(dying laughing) SL I just got up
Also, of course Z thinks he”ll be back. It’s his decision after all.
If Z’s bropologies somehow fall short, are the Cubs going to leave him on the restricted list all year? Don’t think so.
Given the palpable shift in the organization’s attitude toward Z, I think it’s very much a foregone conclusion he returns in 2012. Nobody else wants him right now and the Cubs need the arm.
(The bat too with the way this offense is shaping up.)
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]The Cubs don’t have to get better, the other teams just have to get worse.[/quote]
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/winter-meetings-day-2-open-thread.html