The Cubs signed 18 year old Cuban defector Gerardo Concepcion today. It's reportedly a multi-million dollar deal. More information to come.
UPDATE: Who is Gerardo Concepcion (Yankee Analysts, h/t to DJ)
UPDATE 2: I was going to write more about this, but after looking at the stats that were found in the link on Yankee Analysts, I have no interest but to quote them.
At 17, he broke out in the Cuban National Series, winning rookie of the year for his 2010-2011 performance. In that season he posted a 10-3 record with a 3.36 ERA through 101.2 IP. Now, 18, Concepcion is listed at 6’1” and 175 lbs, a thin frame that figures to grow and add velocity to his 89-91 MPH fastball. Concepcion’s secondary pitches include a plus curveball and solid slider and changeup.
2010-2011 Cuban League Age W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO H/9 BB/9 SO/9 FIP 18 10 3 3.36 21 16 101.2 103 42 38 6 43 53 9.1 3.8 4.7 4.75 As you can tell by the chart, the 4.75 FIP indicates Concepcion’s success in Cuba was most likely luck. His 4.7 SO/9 does not compliment the report of a plus curveball. Still, the other numbers are quite impressive when you consider his age and competition. A 3.8 BB/9 at such a young age, for a pitcher topping out at 94, illustrates above average control. When you combine the relative control with his 9.1 H/9 and a 0.53 HR/9, against Cuban hitters ten years older and in their prime, the statistics suggest that Concepcion has a very advanced feel for pitching.
I don't agree that the numbers suggest he has an advanced feel for pitcing. He may only be 18, but those are ugly numbers. Take a look at the minor leagues here and find me a group of pitchers who struck out under 5.5 per 9 while walking between 3.5 and 4 per 9 who developed into much of a starting pitcher and I'll be shocked. 18 or not, if these numbers were posted by a kid the same age in Low A or High nobody would think twice about him. He'd be demoted.
UPDATE 3: Concepcion was signed to an MLB contract, which means the Cubs will need to free up a 40-man roster spot if they have not already done so. Concepcion will begin using options immediately. This is very strange.
(dying laughing)
@ GW:
I figured since nobody but DJ can spell it right…
I did update it though since this is an actual acquisition. I’ll fuck around with possible spellings later on.
i love the sub 5 SO/9. Kids a star!
sadly, he is now the best pitching prospect we have (dying laughing).
from previous thread:
Regarding the DR facility, even though spending is severely capped and “leveled” amongst the bidders, the kids are still free agents who can choose whom to sign with. So if everyone is offering $100, perhaps you choose the team who has a facility and has been working with you, providing additional stuff like education, etc?? Just guessing, but perhaps that’s the Cubs logic. Is it obvious I’m not a businessman yet? (dying laughing)
While we’re at it, who is the Executive Chairman?
dylanj wrote:
Did he catch Homer Simpson’s mono?
Soler is the one I really want.
Concepticon!
Holy shit, this guy isn’t any good. At all. He’s 6-1, 175, had a 4.75 FIP last year. Struck out 4.7, walked 3.8 per 9. Gave up 9.1 hits per 9. These are ugly numbers. He’s only 18, but still.
I will take it!
well to be fair, he’s 18 and in the Cuban National Series.
its basically a projection pick. If the kid grows into his body and gets better then great. If not he’s just another failed prospect.
@ mb21:
Eh I don’t mind stock piling players. Hopefully a few will pan out. Plus these numbers are against aged players.
Most important numbers though: 10-3 with 3.36 ERA. ALL-STAR!
Does this give us a clue that Cubs are more likely in prospecty type Cubans (Soler) to develop or Cespedes, age assumes a little more urgency on the part of the Superfriends
Goldstein said he would put him at #6 in our system.
(dying laughing)
post updated
@ 8volumesthick:
No I just think it means that he was the best pitcher available. From there.mwould not be shocked if we get both outfielders
What’s the batter K rate in the Cuban league?
our # 6 prospect? Get the fuck out of here.
He can’t be worse than Hayden Simpson!
i think the Cuban league was estimated as being = to High A or AA ball. For an 18 yr old that’s not bad. 89-91 with that frame should = more velocity as he ages but this is all just guessing.
@ dylanj:
“@Kevin_Goldstein: No. 6. RT @BeanballBobby91: @Kevin_Goldstein where would u put concepcion on the cubs prospect list?”
nobody is worse than Hayden Simpson.
@ dylanj:
If an 18 year old in Low A had these numbers would anyone think twice? We’d argue he should be demoted. These are ugly numbers. I understand he’s 18 and that’s at least a reason to be hopeful he can someday strikeout 6 per 9 and maybe walk 3 per 9. It’s also a reason to be pessimistic and think that by the time he’s 23 he’ll be striking out .5 per 9 and walked 78.7 per 9. I really hope this is just a multi-year deal and not a multi-million dollar deal.
i know md, again i would bet this is something the scouts saw and were willing to take a chance on. Because if they dont see projection in this kid then its a waste of money
Sigh. Sure pass on the guy with 33 HR’s and a .424 OBP for an 18 year old who is 8 years from the bigs
@ dylanj:
I’ve never seen AA. I’ve seen Low A to High A. The Dominican Winter League is considered just under the quality of AA. There’s no way Cuban baseball is close to AA.
i dont mind the signing but if this kid is our 6th best prospect we might as well quit
@ dylanj:
Yeah, but that can be said of all signings. The team isn’t signing players just to sign them. They get input from scouts all the time. I can’t question the scouting information because I don’t really know. Other than him throwing 89-91 and him more closely resembling a pencil than a human I don’t know. All I can do is look at the stats.
This is another one of those where I don’t really care. It’s not my money. That’s kind of the attitude I’m taking with this stuff anymore. If you were going to sign one guy from Cuba I think Soler was the guy to sign. Arguments can easily be made it should be Cespedes, but I’d rather not spend that kind of money.
@ dylanj:
He’s not our 6th best prospect. I may as well pencil myself in as the team’s 7th best prospect if he’s the 6th best. I don’t know what KG is talking about, but there’s not a fucking chance this guy is the 6th best prospect in the worst farm system in history.
@ 8volumesthick:
I have no idea what this tells us to be honest. None.
@ mb21:
Maybe he meant 6th best pitching prospect (dying laughing)
mb21 wrote:
Let’s be honest, you don’t need a reason to be pessimistic.
@ dylanj:
I am, not by much though
@ WaLi:
(dying laughing) true, but for the others who need a reason, there’s one.
mb21 wrote:
Isn’t this kind of strawman. I mean why can’t the Cubs sign more than one Cuban guy this year?
@ WaLi:
Out of 6.
I’m pretty meh depending on the money involved. There’s just enough in the scouting reports for hope, yet there’s a lot of numbers that aren’t impressive.
I’ll take a wait-and-see approach. And if I ever do see, it won’t be any sooner than3-5 years down the road anyways.
@ 8volumesthick:
They can. I meant if they were only going to sign one. If they sign two, great. I’d have preferred the two be the other two, but whatever.
@ 8volumesthick:
I think it’s more of a false trilemma than a strawman, but I’m assuming mb threw it out as more a hypothetical than reality.
@ mb21:
Don’t you like anything? (dying laughing)
We’ll know more tomorrow with regards to whether or not Garza will be traded or extended. If the Cubs win I expect he’ll be traded sometime in the next 5 months. If Garza wins the Cubs will sign him to an extension because he’ll have very little trade value at that point.
@ Mish:
I like alien porn.
mb21 wrote:
Correct
but he hates Pizza Hut MILFS
Other sources reporting around 7 million
Kevin Goldstein @Kevin_Goldstein
Yes. Fantastic polish for age, not crazy stuff.
This does not seem like exactly what I would look for in an 18 year old prospect, no matter where he is from.
and a major league deal. bleck
Maybe they signed him to be this year’s Cuban Carlos Pena and make the other potential Cubans more comfy.
And a major league deal. Wtf
dylanj wrote:
that necessitates a spot on the 40 man, right?
they must REALLY like this kid.
GW wrote:
dylanj wrote:
Seriously?
Isn’t this kind of like getting an extra 1st round pick? Hell, I like this deal better than the F7 one…
And keep in mind, MB, that the Low A to High A comparison is imperfect. There aren’t any 27yo sluggers in Low A. The fact that the kid was able to be successful against hitters with more time in the game is worth something, and the equivalency isn’t one to one.
On the Dominican facility – remember that a lot of those kids sign at 16 or 17 for peanuts, so I can’t imagine an international draft applies to more than 5-10 of the 60+ kids who will be in the camp. This is basically throwing a bunch of money on the chance that you might find a ML starter who is cost-controlled out of that bunch. If you can pay the kids $15k/yr and build this facility, then hitting on 1 of those is worth the investment. What will Castro’s surplus value be by the time he’s a free agent?
Also, I read a book called Soccernomics a couple years ago that talked about European teams taking advantage of the undervaluation of foreign players. The most applicable part mentioned that once the undervaluation was recognized, the real value was in getting African or Brazilian players who would actually adapt well. The European leagues are littered with can’t miss South Americans who sucked because they couldn’t get their shit together off the pitch. Having a school that helps these kids prepare for a life in the US, where they’ll spend several years in podunk corn towns before making the bigs has value. If a few more kids per year are able to make the adjustment as a result of the school and facility, then you’re upping the chance that some of those kids will provide value to the ML club.
Cubs also signed Ryan Rowland-Smith to a minor league deal.
This deal keeps getting weirder. According to Brett over at BN:
@ Aisle424:
Maybe the scouts see something, but the numbers guys figure if he’s a bust, no one will want him when he walks.
@ 26.2cubfan:
I think that matches up well with Theo’s mantra of grinding out small advantages wherever they can be found. I think the days of finding massive market inefficiencies is pretty much gone. There are too many analytical minds at work coming from all different angles, and there really aren’t many secrets in the league. Once a team starts sniffing around something, someone else will come in and follow right along instead of bull-headedly sticking by some belief that new things are stupid.
The Cubs are stuck building this up for a long time, but the nice thing is that they have enough money to maintain it once they achieve a championship level of talent in their system. Teams like KC and Pittsburgh will still have to sell off their high-priced talent at a reduced rate since they have to trade them or lose them for nothing.
josh wrote:
Yeah but what do you do if he is clearly making progress, but is not ready for the bigs yet? He’ll be 22, some team will claim him on waivers if he’s decent at all.
@ 26.2cubfan:
That’s true, but we’re talking about a horrible K/9 rate. There are 18 and 19 year olds who face 22 year olds in the minors. It happens frequently and if we saw a K/9 rate under 5 we’d dismiss him.
I’d say this is like getting an extra 4th round pick who you signed to an MLB contract. At least Samardzija had 1st round talent.
@ Aisle424:
He’ll have 4, maybe even 5 options. I’d go with 4, but 5 is possible. But he does start burning options immediately. Just a bizarre contract.
I didn’t really want Cespedes, but I’d much rather have had Cespedes for anything under $50 million than this guy.
I also wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Concepcion is required to be on the 25-man roster within 2 years or something. I’d actually be a little surprised if he isn’t.
I’m not too down on this. So…. who wants a piece of that sweet, sweet John Lannon action?
Gary Hughes———-> Red Sox. Maybe that can be the compensation.
This is also required for major league deals, no?
@ GW:
Yes, and I had the years wrong earlier. I was thinking the number of years a player had before he had to be added to the 40-man roster.
agree with this. there probably isn’t enough data to attempt to translate component stats, but I would expect variation in things like k-rate based on the different makeup of the league.
However, regardless of where concepcion pitches this year he’ll have used an option. Once he’s optioned in spring training it counts as one option year. The additional option is useful for players who are drafted in the summer and then sign later on.
I wouldn’t really call what Concepcion did in Cuba successful. I think he was pretty bad. Considering he only gave up 6 home runs and that his FIP is 4.75 I think that’s just bad.
Player A: 97.2 IP, 101 H, 3 HR, 37 BB, 61 K, 9.3 H/9, 3.4 BB/9, 5.6 K/9
Player B: 101.2 IP, 103 H, 6 HR, 43 BB, 53 K, 9.1 H/9, 3.8 BB/9, 4.7 K/9
Josh Hamilton is allegedly off the wagon.
@ mb21:
yeah, he’ll probably start in AA and I don’t expect much
@ GW:
I thought you meant Josh Hamilton at first.
Aisle424 wrote:
yeah, he’ll probably start in AA and I don’t expect much
Well, that’s depressing. I hope he gets better.
Hamilton, I mean. Though I’d be delighted to see improvement from Concepcion, as well.
@ ACT:
The article isn’t real clear, it almost sounded like someone just saw him taking a drink. So maybe it’s not so bad.
josh wrote:
I’ve never been addicted to alcohol and then relapsed, so I don’t know what the consequences of taking a drink really is, but people are acting like he woke up missing a tooth in a Las Vegas suite with Mike Tyson’s tiger in the bathroom.
@ Aisle424:
I never have either, but one drink isn’t a killer. It’s a relapse, and he needs to make sure it doesn’t get out of hand, but one drink isn’t the end of the world.
@ josh:
He did relapse a few years ago and I think he went back into treatment almost immediately afterward. I’d imagine, since this is public now, the same thing will happen this time. I don’t see this getting out of hand.
josh wrote:
No, but one drink can often lead to one more drink and so on and so forth. this guy isn’t someone who went to AA meetings because it was fashionable or because he may have had a bit too much of the devil’s nectar one night at a club. He was full-on out-of-control, so it probably doesn’t take much to unleash that monster. If he had the kind of self-control (and that may be a poor phrase choice) that you and I probably take for granted, he wouldn’t be an addict. I think that is why people are freaking out about it, and they might be right to be making these jumps. I just don’t know.
The problem with this line of thinking is it can explain some statistical deficiencies, but not the ones exhibited by Concepcion. If he has a killer K rate, but a high HR rate I’d chalk the latter up to facing some studs that are 10 years his senior. But that’s not the case. If Cuban ball is really A-ish in talent level, and this guy is a year or two from the majors, he should be eating their lunch.
That all said, it’s not a ton of money, and the scouts seem to like him. It’s not like the Cubs have better things to spend it (or their roster spot) on. It’s a lottery ticket. I like it for the same reasons I liked the JeffF7 draft. (And the problem with that pick – the lack of acknowledgement of sunk costs – appears to be gone.)
When it comes to guys coming from Cuba, it’s getting close to the end-member where stats are meaningless and you have to rely solely on scouts. So although I tend to numerical-based analysis, this is the type of case where if the scouts love a guy I say “OK. Go get him.”
Can anyone with an astute basketball mind give me one possible explanation why Thibs willingly put the Knicks on the line when the Bulls were up 4 with under 10 seconds left?
Maybe the Cubs are going back to this style jersey:
[img]http://discrimihater.fateback.com/baseball/cubs95bp.gif[/img]
[img]http://playersofelbeisbolcubano.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/cuba-wbc-jersey.jpg?w=450[/img]
@ josh:
(dying laughing)
@ GBTS:
Was it an off the ball foul? Wanted to prevent a 3-pointer or a 4-point play, perhaps.
Aisle424 wrote:
Well in the old days, how do you think they got the booze from town to town?
On a wagon!
[img]http://www.thegregbradyproject.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/seinfeld-stand-up.JPG[/img]
@ shawndgoldman:
It was on the ball. The Knicks needed to score on two possessions in as little time as possible, so Thibs gave them two free points AND stopped the clock. Even if he’s afraid of a 3 pointer, even coming down the court and launching one at the first opportunity would have killed half the clock. I was livid.
@ GBTS:
Not saying I’d do it. Just trying to guess at the strategy. That had to be it…
I was looking over bad contracts for the next three years and wondered if anyone would trade Soriano’s bad deal and $14 million to Baltimore for Nick Markakis. The money evens the salary out. Can’t imagine Baltimore would do this, but at least Soriano could DH. Maybe an A-ball C+ pitching project thrown in would help.
I haven’t paid close enough attention to Hamilton’s drug and alcohol abuse. I know I wouldn’t have wanted my alcoholism and drug addiction on the front pages or discussed on various forums like is inevitable for someone as famous as Hamilton. That in itself is tough to deal with and I have a ton of respect for Hamilton. It’s already difficult enough staying clean, but the amount of pressure he has on him, the number of eyes watching him and waiting for him to fail makes it far more difficult than anything I ever went through. Hamilton undoubtedly has a support group as I did, but unlike me most of the world is watching and waiting for him to fail so they have something to discuss. I’m sure people over the years doubted whether or not I could remain sober and for good reason, but I didn’t have anybody rooting against me like there are for Hamilton. Sure, everybody says they want him to live a healthy life, but being destructive sells newspapers. The journalists love it. The fans love it. It’s gossip. It makes the athlete human and we can more easily judge them in ways we can judge others, but not ourselves of course.
One drink? Two drinks? So what. Relapses happen. The only important thing at this point is that he tries to stay clean. You can’t wake up the next day and feel as though you’ve failed. That’s exactly what leads to the vicious cycle. I can’t count the number of times I went to bed high, drunk and depressed. I’d tell myself I’d never do it again and the next day I did. I became more depressed and more likely to use. If I had a drink tonight or smoked some crack tomorrow I’d wake up the following day and move on. If I wake up depressed I’m going to use again. It’s time to move on. There’s nothing I can do about what already happened.
It’s impossible to say you just forget about it because you don’t. How can you not forget that you had been sober for 4088 days and now you’re shooting for day 1? You can’t. I’m not looking to be sober for 4188 days or 5000 days right now. All I’m trying to do is remain sober for 4089 days. If I can’t do that I stay sober for 1 day. Even though you can’t forget about all those days in a row that you can no longer proudly count, you have to move on. If you focus on going from 4088 to 1 you’re probably not going to succeed. Depression will set in and the cycle will begin again.
I’m assuming Hamilton knows this. He’s relapsed before and move on and hopefully he will this time.
You know what though? It really is interesting to me that when these super human athletes behave like humans people are so fucking quick to judge them. I haven’t read anything about this, but from what 424 said it sounds like people are already freaking out and that’s not too surprising. I can’t count the number of times over the last decade I’ve read some fan or journalist talk about how these guys are humans and not a spreadsheet yet it’s those people who don’t accept it when they behave like a human.
@ Aisle424:
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying it’s to be taken lightly, but the other side of the coin is that the guy is under a microscope all the time because of what happened to him, and it could be over reaction to something he already has taken care of privately.
Edit: what MB21 said.
@ shawndgoldman:
That’s pretty much my takeaway from this too. Scouts were all hot on him. He obviously is showing something his numbers aren’t, so maybe it works out, maybe it doesn’t. They have enough money to take some chances.
@ shawndgoldman:
Yeah, a high HR rate and you can chalk that up to luck, but strikeouts and walks are the two most repeatable events for pitchers. Strikeout rate is actually more indicative of how a pitcher will perform the following season than anything else. A K/9 under 5 is horrible. I get that he’s 18 and there’s always the potential he could suddenly improve, but I’m guessing improving as much as necessary would be next to unheard of. Not only does his K/9 have to improve considerably, he’ll have to improve at missing bats just to maintain that K/9 rate as he moves up the farm system. I’d be very surprised if he’s ever capable of striking out more than 6 to 6.5 per 9 as a starter. I think that’s a ceiling here. It’s entirely possible he could greatly improve his command and still maintain a solid K to BB ratio. I actually think that’s the best chance he has of being much use as a starter in the future. I’d also be surprised if he’s ever capable of striking out 7 per 9 as a reliever.
It’s not my money so whatever.
@ SkipVB:
Apparently the O’s were one of the teams talking to the Cubs about Soriano. That’s not a bad idea. I think you probably have to include a better prospect though and maybe a little more money. I haven’t take a look at Markakis though.
mb21 wrote:
There’s no way that the O’s trade Markakis. Peter Angelos : Markakis :: Jim Hendry : Koyie Hill, except multiply that by 100
@ Berselius:
Has Markakis sucked lately?
mb21 wrote:
His numbers have taken a dip from his first few seasons, but he’s still a 2-3 WAR oF
mb21 wrote:
It’s not just the luck of a small sample size. It’s also that the he’s not dominating the bottom of the talent pool.
If he had a high HR rate and high strikeout rate, I could say “OK, when he faces the studs he might be getting lit up, and that’s expected for a kid still in his teens. But at least he’s dominating the bottom of the lineup.”
But that’s not the case. He’s not striking enough guys out, which means he isn’t dominating the worst players in A-ish ball. That’s my problem. You can’t explain that away by saying Cuba has some awesome hitters. He faces those guys one or two times per trip through the lineup. The other 7-8 guys probably suck, and he should be striking them out.
Can the O’s afford to get any worse than they are?
shawndgoldman wrote:
You could just as easily make the argument that the league is full of scrappy, get on base types, and that Conceptifornication would fare better against younger, impatient players. I don’t think that’s true (after all, there are no white guys in the league), but I don’t think we can presume much about the talent distribution there without knowing more details.
http://claydavenport.com/stats/webpages/2011ppageCBArealALL.shtml
GW wrote:
The point is that the “defense” of his numbers is that Cuba isn’t truly A-ball in that guys can’t get promoted beyond that level. So even though it’s A-ish overall there are some MLB-caliber players there. If so, you’d expect him to have mostly great numbers, with a few bad ABs/PAs thrown in from when he faces MLB-ready guys when he’s < 20. That would be consistent with a high K rate and high HR rate.
With the “meh” reaction of this signing, maybe this counts for the Daily Facepalm by default (dying laughing)
I know you said already that his FIP was bad-ish, but is it possible that he’s outperforming his FIP because he’s inducing weak contact, and that’s not being reflected in the statistics being reported? Maybe they figure that’s something they can work with a la Dave Duncan and “pitching to contact”…not sure how many of you believe in that kind of stuff, but there must be a method to the madness.
shawndgoldman wrote:
but if the run environment was significantly different (through park dimensions, the type of baseballs used, atmospheric conditions, you name it), the incentives for players could be significantly different. can’t make those assumptions about the distribution of talent and their specific skill sets confidently without more info. though as i’ve said, my best guess is that he’s just not very good.
GW wrote:
That says his age is 25. Maybe since they can’t get his age right then the stats are wrong too (dying laughing)
Or maybe he is 25 and this becomes the worst minor league signing ever.
It lists all the players as 25.
http://www.theunticket.com/jimmy-grizz-kennedy-interview/
Best Super Bowl interview ever.
Not sure what this means, if anything. Probably just meh, but based on the spreadsheet listed above:
>50 IP
Rank out of 111
RAR 18
K/9 52
BB/9 60
H/9 29
HR/9 9
Shawn put a post up at BCB about Concepcion…I think the fact that it’s Shawn outweighs the fact that it’s BCB.
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2012/2/3/2767923/thoughts-on-gerard-concepcion-trust-the-scouts
The idea that Concepcion is the best pitching prospect in this organization is laughable. He may end up being good, but right now there is simply no way on earth he’s the best pitching prospect.
mLBTR is reporting that Garza and the Cubs split the difference. $9.5M
Ken Rosenthal reports Matt Garza agrees to $9.5 Million contract + Performance Bonuses to avoid arbitration.
@ Mish:
Aisley’s comment was one I recently enjoyed.
One more season of Garza, or at least until he’s traded.
Rice Cube wrote:
Really this was unnecessary. Don’t you have your own site for snark?
@ Aisle424:
That was great.
@ Rice Cube:
I have no idea what you’re talking about. (dying laughing)
josh wrote:
His complete inability to let a single thing go by without comment is amazing. My comment probably would have been buried if it had gone without response, but he had to engage. It’s mainly why I do stay away from over there since it’s just too easy, but I had to give Shawn a hard time.
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/cubs-reach-deal-with-matt-garza.html
.
.