It’s easy for us to look at a player and highlight a major weakness. We do this all the time. That weakness then overshadows what the player does well. If that player hits a game winning home run we’re certainly excited, but within moments we’re back to talking about his rag arm, atrocious baserunning, inability to field or get on base.
Nobody is great at everything. In baseball there are numerous skills that make up the entire value of the player. For position players you offense and defense, but each of them can be broken down further. The offense includes getting on base, hitting for power, and baserunning. With defense you have range, which be broken down even more. Players who have good range generally excel at one or two areas (coming in, going to the left for example), but not 360 degrees. Arm strength is important and so is the accuracy. There are other skills of course, but you get the idea.
Let’s use Albert Pujols as an example. Pujols has obviously been a great hitter. He gets on base and hits for power. He runs the bases well. At 1st base he’s above average on defense, but it’s 1st base. Once you include the positional adjustment necessary he’s a well below average fielder. Imagine Pujols at SS. Can’t do it? Me neither. While Pujols is good compared to other 1st baseman, he’s not good defensively compared to the average fielder in MLB. Barry Bonds on the other hand, excelled at everything. He was a great defender. He was an excellent baserunner. Even if you factor in the positional adjustment he still comes out well above average. Barry Bonds was the complete player. There aren’t many, but if you’re looking for a complete player you’re not being realistic.
Let’s now take a look at Alfonso Soriano. Much of the focus on Soriano has been on his inability to get on base the last couple years. In 2011 his OBP was an awful .289. I’ve highlighted this many times more than I should have. If we convert that OBP to OBP+ (player OBP / lg. OBP) * 100)) we get 91. Terrible for sure, but OBP is one part of offense. Yes, it’s the most important part. What would his SLG+ have to be to make Soriano a league average hitter? OBP is about 1.7 times more valuable than SLG. Since his OBP+ is 91, his SLG+ would have to be 118. Soriano’s SLG+ was actually 120 in 2011.
This is why his OPS+ on Baseball Reference is listed at 104. BRef considers park factors, which I did not. I’m not looking for exact numbers so I don’t really care about that. The point I’m making is that when you properly weight OBP and SLG, Soriano was average with the bat in 2011.
If Soriano could bat 700 times, play average defensive and run the bases at an average rate he’d be worth 2 WAR (league average). That’s not even close to realistic though. While the fielding metrics once again liked Soriano in 2011, I’m inclined to ignore them. I don’t think you’d find too many people who said Soriano was anything other than a below average fielder. He was also below average on the bases. He also came nowhere near 700 plate appearances.
He won’t come anywhere near that in the future. His defense and baserunning will only get worse. So will his offense. As players age they take the field less frequently. In Soriano’s 5 years with the Cubs he’s averaged 129 games and 540 plate appearances. Expect those numbers to decline. By the way, the 5 years prior to that he average just over 700 plate appearances per season and missed an average of 8 games per year.
While Soriano might still be an average batter, he’s a below average fielder, baserunner and plays much less than necessary to be anywhere close to a league average performer.
I’ve made too much of a point about Soriano’s OBP in the past. It’s important for sure, but the guy still hits for power. The two must be weighted properly or you’re not using the stats correctly. Besides, if the idea is to show how bad Soriano is, we can do that without undervaluing his power. Soriano is not good at baseball. Oliver forecasts a .233/.286/425 line with a .306 wOBA resulting in 0 WAR. I’d probably guess he beats that projection, but not by much.
If you were the Cubs and you can’t or won’t release Soriano yet, do you trot him out to play below average defense and give him 600+ plate appearances, or do you use him as an expensive bench player because you’re paying him no matter what anyway, so why not put a better defender out there?
Can the superfriends make a case that Soriano can provide value with just his bat? Or are you saying his bat is pretty much shot at this point as well?
(dying laughing), I think I know what inspired this post
[quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), I think I know what inspired this post[/quote]Inquiring minds wish to know.
/curiosity killed the cat and now I’m thinking about cats
I’d cut Soriano. What’s done is done, and your’e not going to fool anyone. (Hey, I’m a rapper! Dying laughing!)
[quote name=Rice Cube]If you were the Cubs and you can’t or won’t release Soriano yet, do you trot him out to play below average defense and give him 600+ plate appearances, or do you use him as an expensive bench player because you’re paying him no matter what anyway, so why not put a better defender out there?[/quote]Is Brett Jackson ready? If the Cubs determine he’s ready to play at the big league level Soriano is a bench player. If the Cubs think Jackson needs a little more time then I start Soriano in LF until he is. I put Jackson in CF and move Byrd to LF when he’s ready.
[quote name=Steve Swisher]I’d cut Soriano. What’s done is done, and your’e not going to fool anyone. (Hey, I’m a rapper! Dying laughing!)[/quote]
I think they’re pushing hard to trade him for pennies on the dollar, but if they don’t I think they just tell him GTFO at spring training.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Inquiring minds wish to know.
/curiosity killed the cat and now I’m thinking about cats[/quote]It was a twitter discussion between Brett (Bleacher Nation) and Jack (Rooftop View). Although I disagree with Jack’s argument, I think he and I agree more than Brett and I do with regards to whether or not Soriano should play. The question for me is whether or not Brett Jackson is ready.
[quote name=mb21]It was a twitter discussion between Brett (Bleacher Nation) and Jack (Rooftop View). Although I disagree with Jack’s argument, I think he and I agree more than Brett and I do with regards to whether or not Soriano should play. The question for me is whether or not Brett Jackson is ready.[/quote]If what Berselius said in #7 is the tentative plan, then I think Soriano might get released whenever and if BJax is called up.
[quote name=Berselius]I think they’re pushing hard to trade him for pennies on the dollar, but if they don’t I think they just tell him GTFO at spring training.[/quote]That wouldn’t surprise me. I’m not convinced that Tony Campana isn’t a better player at this point anyway.
[quote name=Berselius]I think they’re pushing hard to trade him for pennies on the dollar, but if they don’t I think they just tell him GTFO at spring training.[/quote]
I guess it depends on what BJaxx does, when he’s ready. But I just don’t see any point in keeping him. I think it sends a message to the fans saying “This truly is a new era.” I think everyone gets that anyway, but he’s a symbol of an older mode of thinking and is simply clogging the metaphorical basepaths.
.
[quote name=mb21]That wouldn’t surprise me. I’m not convinced that Tony Campana isn’t a better player at this point anyway.[/quote]He’s definitely faster (dying laughing)
Niners
[quote name=Rice Cube]He’s definitely faster (dying laughing)[/quote]Significantly better baserunner and defender. Not as good offensively, but does he make up for with it baserunning and defense?
[quote name=dylanj]Niners[/quote]
Yep. Good chance at the No. 2 seed now.
Aldon Smith.
[quote name=mb21]Significantly better baserunner and defender. Not as good offensively, but does he make up for with it baserunning and defense?[/quote]I’m not really good at reading the FanGraphs stuff but I think his fielding and baserunning numbers blew Soriano’s out of the water.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=17
The B-Ref stuff isn’t as generous though.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl/player_search.cgi?search=2011+cubs
[quote name=mb21]Significantly better baserunner and defender. Not as good offensively, but does he make up for with it baserunning and defense?[/quote]They need to throw this up every time Campana is up to bat
playing in seattle will be tough. Seahawks have been good lately.
[quote name=WaLi]They need to throw this up every time Campana is up to bat[/quote]
Except that he is a terrible bunter.
[quote name=Aisle424]Except that he is a terrible bunter.[/quote]He seriously needs to work on bunting and nothing but for the entire off-season. His only goals in life should be to keep his legs healthy and become the world’s best bunter.
[quote name=Aisle424]Except that he is a terrible bunter.[/quote]Well since the Cubs haven’t been busy signing anyone this offseason maybe they can work on improving his bunting skills. Or even better, improving his inside the park HR skills. Maybe combine the two and get inside the park HR bunts. I think he is fast enough.
Oh, and maybe buy a bigger glove.
[quote name=josh]He seriously needs to work on bunting and nothing but for the entire off-season. His only goals in life should be to keep his legs healthy and become the world’s best bunter.[/quote]I’d pay to see that actually. Every Campana plate appearance would be a Yakety Sax moment as the infield runs around with their heads cut off on every bunt attempt, if Campana can figure that out.
[quote name=josh]Oh, and maybe buy a bigger glove.[/quote]
I like this one too:
It’s bigger than Tony Campana.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I like this one too:
It’s bigger than Tony Campana.[/quote]You mean that guy’s baseball cap? True. Also, that’s an enormous glove. It’s at least 10 Campanas wide.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I like this one too:
It’s bigger than Tony Campana.[/quote]That’s Campana’s bed.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I like this one too:
It’s bigger than Tony Campana.[/quote]Isn’t that Mish’s cock?
[quote name=mb21]That’s Campana’s bed.[/quote]
He must have bought it at Steve Stone’s garage sale.
[quote name=Suburban kid]Isn’t that Mish’s cock?[/quote]I’m sure he’d like you to believe that.
For those interested in overanalysis of the TDK Rises trailer:
http://www.totalfilm.com/features/the-dark-knight-rises-trailer-breakdown-fan-edition/the-robin-symbol
[quote name=josh]You mean that guy’s baseball cap? True. Also, that’s an enormous glove. It’s at least 10 Campanas wide.[/quote]Campana should be a new unit of measurement.
[quote name=Mish]For those interested in overanalysis of the TDK Rises trailer:
http://www.totalfilm.com/features/the-dark-knight-rises-trailer-breakdown-fan-edition/the-robin-symbol/quotehttp://www.totalfilm.com/features/the-dark-knight-rises-trailer-breakdown-fan-edition/nolan-s-ward
That’s
HeinzHines Ward, isn’t it?Sorry, was thinking about ketchup.
It is Hines Ward.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I’m sure he’d like you to suck on that.[/quote]
/faget’d
(dying laughing) @ 2:42
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQ19A2GFaBM[/quote]It’s amazing that most of these people didn’t suffer debilitating injuries and is a testament to the durability of the human form (dying laughing)
[quote name=GBTS](dying laughing) @ 2:42[/quote]What was he trying to do?
I personally liked 10:09
I like the one where the guy falls down.
Is that Mish at 9:41?
From George Takei…
http://ow.ly/i/nVeH/original
[quote name=Rice Cube]Is that Mish at 9:41?[/quote](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
http://kimjongildroppingthebass.tumblr.com/
[quote name=Suburban kid]
[/quote]Hey, great tits.
1:05
[quote name=Rice Cube]Is that Mish at 9:41?[/quote]Yes
Cubs video holiday card:
http://mlb.mlb.com/chc/fan_forum/greeting_card_team.jsp
[quote name=dylanj]playing in seattle will be tough. Seahawks have been good lately.[/quote]
Fine. Then hope that NO loses to ATL or don’t get the No. 2 seed.
[quote name=fang2415]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgzSOd1WTkw
1:05[/quote]
/obligatory old man counter-reference
That’s why wOBA is a great stat: it values offensive events correctly. Soriano’s 2011 wOBA was .325, which is pretty close to league average.
I still wish he’d walk more and that he didn’t look like Pedro Cerrano on curves low and away, but 26 dingers is nothing to sniff at. If Sveum can make good use of defensive subs to limit the damage in the field, I’d be quite happy for the Cubs to offer Soriano a one-year contract at $4M. (dying laughing)
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]Cubs video holiday card:
http://mlb.mlb.com/chc/fan_forum/greeting_card_team.jsp/quoteSeems that Soriano hasn’t been a good boy this
contractyear.[quote name=Suburban kid]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9He5PY9pQo
/obligatory old man counter-reference[/quote]I’m disappointed that this wasn’t a clip from the Jack Benny show.
Anyway, I probably should have tried to find a better clip of somebody saying “he came and went at the same time”, but I couldn’t be bothered. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Suburban kid]Seems that Soriano hasn’t been a good boy this
contractyear.[/quote]A certain fiery Latino pitcher isn’t in the group shot.[quote name=Rice Cube]A certain fiery Latino pitcher isn’t in the group shot.[/quote]No dinner = no picture
[quote name=fang2415]I’m disappointed that this wasn’t a clip from the Jack Benny show.
[/quote]
Whole episode, more like.
Oswalt —–> looking for a one year deal
[quote name=fang2415]That’s why wOBA is a great stat: it values offensive events correctly. Soriano’s 2011 wOBA was .325, which is pretty close to league average.
I still wish he’d walk more and that he didn’t look like Pedro Cerrano on curves low and away, but 26 dingers is nothing to sniff at. If Sveum can make good use of defensive subs to limit the damage in the field, I’d be quite happy for the Cubs to offer Soriano a one-year contract at $4M. (dying laughing)[/quote]Exactly, but I was trying to ignore wOBA altogether and look at it only from a skill perspective. Soriano sucks at getting on base, but makes up for it with his power (not unlike Andrew Dawson). Soriano sucks at most everything else though.
[quote name=Mish]Oswalt —–> looking for a one year deal[/quote]I don’t expect the Cubs to spend the money it would take for a one year deal, but they should.
Yanks and Cubs bid under $20M for Yu: http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/347145/baseball-headlines?r=1
Love that Texas charm:
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/police-texas-town-giving-gift-cards-good-driving-220856400.html
[quote name=mb21]I don’t expect the Cubs to spend the money it would take for a one year deal, but they should.[/quote]Oswalt won’t cost a draft pick either because he wasn’t offered arbitration. It sounds like a decent option…low risk, high reward.
Wally Hayward looking for some help:
http://baseballjobs.teamworkonline.com/teamwork/r.cfm?i=40982
http://www.wyff4.com/r/30037563/detail.html
“Man Eats Cocaine From Brother’s Butt, Dies”
Also, check out the hundreds of racist comments
[quote name=Aisle424]Wally Hayward looking for some help:
http://baseballjobs.teamworkonline.com/teamwork/r.cfm?i=40982/quoteI possess zero years of brand marketing experience. I think I’m qualified, otherwise. I mean, except for that and all the other qualifications.
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]http://www.wyff4.com/r/30037563/detail.html
“Man Eats Cocaine From Brother’s Butt, Dies”
Also, check out the hundreds of racist comments[/quote]Crack cocaine
[quote name=josh]I possess zero years of brand marketing experience. I think I’m qualified, otherwise. I mean, except for that and all the other qualifications.[/quote]
You’re more qualified than Todd Ricketts. You’re hired!
[quote name=Rice Cube]You’re more qualified than Todd Ricketts. You’re hired![/quote]The ideal qualifications are like a list of everything I’m not.
I did, however, notice a typo:
• Thorough knowledge of social media and its’ applications
That’s never correct. Ever.
[quote name=josh]The ideal qualifications are like a list of everything I’m not.[/quote]And Todd Ricketts is? Don’t sell yourself short, kid. You’re gonna be a star!
[quote name=Rice Cube]And Todd Ricketts is? Don’t sell yourself short, kid. You’re gonna be a star![/quote]Yeah…I suspect nepotism.
Yuni —> Royals
It’s like KC did a one year WAR dump (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]I don’t expect the Cubs to spend the money it would take for a one year deal, but they should.[/quote]I hope they spend some money on something. 2012 looks to be a long, boring summer.
[quote name=ACT]I hope they spend some money on something.[/quote]
Abortions for some, miniature american flags for others.
Things I have to look forward to next baseball season:
1. Incremental improvement from Starlin Castro.
2. Sean Marshall making left-handed batters look silly.
3. The draft.
4. ???
[quote name=ACT]I hope they spend some money on something. 2012 looks to be a long, boring summer.[/quote]
They have spent money though. There have been dinners and Tuesday meetings. Plus the ex-Sox staff that we have been hiring has to cost them something. Unfortunately none of this improves on-field performance.
[quote name=ACT]Things I have to look forward to next baseball season:
1. Incremental improvement from Starlin Castro.
2. Sean Marshall making left-handed batters look silly.
3. The draft.
4. ???[/quote]
5. Profit
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]http://www.wyff4.com/r/30037563/detail.html
“Man Eats Cocaine From Brother’s Butt, Dies”
Also, check out the hundreds of racist comments[/quote]
So, these people still exist.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
What the fuck?
[quote name=GBTS]So, these people should kill themselves.[/quote].
[quote name=mb21].[/quote]I can’t argue with you today.
That’s the type of thread where someone should suggest the commenters do something like this:
I gotta admit, I’m not feeling too sorry for that guy’s death, but it has nothing to do with his race. It also has nothing to do with anything other than dying from doing something stupid (eating cocaine).
[quote name=mb21]It also has nothing to do with anything other than dying from doing something stupid (eating cocaine from someone’s anus, just like the perverted homosexual lifestyle).[/quote].
[quote name=ACT]Things I have to look forward to next baseball season:
1. Incremental improvement from Starlin Castro.
2. Sean Marshall making left-handed batters look silly.
3. The draft.
4. ???[/quote]…maybe the Indians will something interesting?
[quote name=josh]…maybe the Indians will something interesting?[/quote]Like change their logo?
[quote name=mb21]That’s the type of thread where someone should suggest the commenters do something like this:
What’s really interesting is that those comments are made through Facebook profiles. This isn’t some online alias like Aisle 424 making fun of people, but these racist comments are now tied to that actual person (some of which include their business affiliations on their profile).
It would be interesting to know how many people lose their jobs over saying stupid stuff like this on the internet.
[quote name=ACT]Like change their logo?[/quote]Exactly! And you can tune in to see the Marlins Horror go off for a homerun.
[quote name=Aisle424]
It would be interesting to know how many people lose their jobs over saying stupid stuff like this on the internet.[/quote]
There are stories like that in the news every now and then but I’m too lazy to Google for specific examples. There are also some dumb wrong text errors documented on the joke pages that may or may not be real. I’m guessing the most prominent stories are of athletes who Tweet negatively about their sport or their franchises and then get fined. Here’s the first hit when you type in “fired because of facebook”:
http://internet.cytalk.com/2010/09/how-to-get-stupidly-fired-because-of-facebook/comment-page-1/
As the world gets more interconnected, human stupidity becomes more exposed.
[quote name=Rice Cube]There are stories like that in the news every now and then but I’m too lazy to Google for specific examples. There are also some dumb wrong text errors documented on the joke pages that may or may not be real. I’m guessing the most prominent stories are of athletes who Tweet negatively about their sport or their franchises and then get fined. Here’s the first hit when you type in “fired because of facebook”:
http://internet.cytalk.com/2010/09/how-to-get-stupidly-fired-because-of-facebook/comment-page-1/
As the world gets more interconnected, human stupidity becomes more exposed.[/quote]True enough, but some of those firings are BS, too. One person was fired for posting picture of herself sampling Guiness on her vacation to the Guiness brewery. This is, incidentally, one reason to make sure you don’t have coworkers as friends, and you don’t allow friends of friends to see your posts and check your profile’s visibility and all that.
[quote name=josh]True enough, but some of those firings are BS, too. One person was fired for posting picture of herself sampling Guiness on her vacation to the Guiness brewery. This is, incidentally, one reason to make sure you don’t have coworkers as friends, and you don’t allow friends of friends to see your posts and check your profile’s visibility and all that.[/quote]I think Facebook makes it relatively simple to set your privacy but there are ways to circumvent that. Not sure how that new timeline will affect it though.
Imagine the awesomeness if you could actually clone Tim Lincecum and have them start every two days instead of five:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/When-Tim-Lincecum-met-his-cab-driving-doppelgang?urn=mlb-wp28868
[quote name=Aisle424]What’s really interesting is that those comments are made through Facebook profiles. This isn’t some online alias like Aisle 424 making fun of people, but these racist comments are now tied to that actual person (some of which include their business affiliations on their profile).
It would be interesting to know how many people lose their jobs over saying stupid stuff like this on the internet.[/quote]I lost my job for saying stupid shit on OV.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Imagine the awesomeness if you could actually clone Tim Lincecum and have them start every two days instead of five:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/When-Tim-Lincecum-met-his-cab-driving-doppelgang?urn=mlb-wp28868/quoteIf we’re going to clone Tim Lincecum, can’t he just start every day?
[quote name=mb21]If we’re going to clone Tim Lincecum, can’t he just start every day?[/quote]This is uber-nerd of me, but if you start Lincecum (or his clones) too many times in a single series, doesn’t that offer way too much exposure of one pitcher to a single lineup (assuming the clones have the same repertoire of pitches and delivery) and thus negate some of his advantage? It’s not totally like the “fourth time through the order” philosophy where the starter is gassed when the lineup rolls around to cycle #4, but a lineup essentially seeing the same pitcher 10-20 times over a single 3- or 4- game series seems like they’d adjust very well such that Clone #2 and Clone #3 are going to get shelled while Clone #1 gets the Cy Young (dying laughing)
Actually I guess Clone #1 is the original Lincecum, unless they all got way too baked and forgot who was who.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Actually I guess Clone #1 is the original Lincecum, unless they all got way too baked and forgot who was who.[/quote]Hopefully it’s not like this.
Goddammit…
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/breaking/20111220_Four_say_Philly_Daily_News_writer_Bill_Conlin_sexually_abused_them_as_children.html?page=1&c=y
I really wish there was a way to stop this stuff before it happens. Ugh.
He’s just being accused right now, so I’d like to think it didn’t happen, but damn.
I can think of two Cubs bloggers who were fired from their jobs for Internet related crimes. For one of these, it’s only a rumor that he was fired for this reason. Come to think of it, the rumor had a source so it must have happened? Can’t remember how that works.
I’m still trying to figure out why someone would be fired for enjoying an adult beverage, even if it was IN PUBLIC (gasp)
Is Bill Conlin the crusty Philly columnist guy who feuded with saberbloggers?
I assume one was Al. Who was the other?
[quote name=Suburban kid]
I’m still trying to figure out why someone would be fired for enjoying an adult beverage, even if it was IN PUBLIC (gasp)[/quote]I had a friend who worked as a guidance counselor at a private high school, and it was in her contract that her employment could be terminated if she drank alcohol. They even asked at her interview if she drank at Thanksgiving with her family.
[quote name=GBTS]I had a friend who worked as a guidance counselor at a private high school, and it was in her contract that her employment could be terminated if she drank alcohol. They even asked at her interview if she drank at Thanksgiving with her family.[/quote]Did she lie in the interview?
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/teams-interested-in-matt-garza-and-sean-marshall.html
I remember the blogger formerly known as the Uncouth Sloth (goes by his real name these days) saying he was fired for Internet shit. I can’t remember if it was because he was writing his raunchy Cubs blog at work, or if he was downloading lots of nasty shit or what.