I haven’t heard any rumors about the Cubs being willing to throw Starlin Castro a multi-year extension, but thought it might be interesting to consider it. The point of signing him to the extension would to be to buy out all or at least some of his arbitration years in order to keep the cost down. Obviously Castro would have to agree to it and he may simply be happy to play it year by year and maximize his value. He may also realize that he’s a serious injury away from unemployment.
In March of 2009, Theo Epstein and the Boston Red Sox signed Jon Lester to 5-year, $30 million contract with a club option for $13 million or a $0.25 million buyout. The club option in 2014 is voided if Lester is traded or finishes first or seconds in the Cy Young voting in any year of the contract. Lester had just over 3 years of service time and was arbitration eligible for the first time. He’d have the 2009 arbitration year followed by two additional years before reaching free agency. He had 3 years of club control left, but the Red Sox decided to buy out his arbitration years and at least 2 more.
Entering the 2009 season, Lester’s projected WAR was probably about 3 to 4. He was much better than than and has remained significantly better. Even at a projected 3 to 4 WAR, the Red Sox saved a ton of money by signing him to the extension. They took the risk that he may get injured or perform much worse than expected, but the reward was that he’d become as good as they hoped, stay healthy and cost them next to nothing. There is more risk in signing pitchers to long-term contracts than players, but there is always risk.
Castro has another year of league minimum before becoming arbitration eligible. He’ll almost certainly arbitration eligible for 4 years so the Cubs have 5 more years of club control. If Castro continues to improve, he could become expensive.
CAIRO projects about 3 WAR (not including defense) and he’ll only be 22 years old. The FSR’s have Castro as a bit above average defensively so we’re going to keep it at 3 WAR next year. He’ll continue to improve for a few years. It’s not unreasonable to expect something the following from Castro:
2012: 3 WAR
2013: 3.5 WAR
2014: 4 WAR
2015: 4.5 WAR
2016: 5 WAR
Free agency
At league minimum in 2012, he’s worth exactly league minimum. In his first year of arbitration, players get about 40% of market value. Since he’s a super two, we’ll keep years 1 and 2 at 40% and then increase to 60% and then 80% in 2016. Add it all up and you get about $54 million in value over the next 5 years.
No way are you going to re-sign him for that long and pay the full cost of the value. That would be silly. Plus, there’s the 10% bonus teams get for contracts 3 years or longer. So his value is down to $50 million. Still not going to sign him for that. Still silly. There aren’t many first year arbitration eligible players that get paid about $8 million and that’s what we’ve come up with. I’d say the odds of that are slim to none.
How much should the Cubs offer? If you’re going to buy out the remaining years of club control, you may as well buy out a year or two of free agency years at a much cheaper price too. I don’t know the answer to this. I don’t know that there is only one answer.
Since Lester signed for 5/30, I’d be hesitant to give him more than $6 million per year. I don’t want to sign him for 5 years though. I’d rather go 6 or 7. Can he stay at SS? That’s huge. If he has to move away from SS, he has a lot less value. He’s still a very valuable player; he’s just not as valuable as he’d be at SS. I’d also like the 6th and 7th years to be club options.
That same offseason, the Red Sox also extended Dustin Pedroia. He got 6 years and $40.5 million with a 7th year club option for $11 million or a $0.5 million buyout. The club option was voided if he won the MVP and he did that in 2008. As good as Castro may be, he’s not as good as Pedroia when he signed that extension. Pedroia had a little more service time than Castro, but was still a year away from arbitration like Castro. I think Pedroia’s contract is fairly similar to what the Cubs should consider, but a bit less. Here’s Pedroia’s contract:
6 years/$40.5M (2009-14), plus 2015 club option
signed extension with Boston 12/3/08
$1.5M signing bonus
09:$1.5M, 10:$3.5M, 11:$5.5M, 12:$8M, 13:$10M, 14:$10M, 15:$11M club option ($0.5M buyout)
escalators based on MVP vote:
MVP in 2009-13 increases 2014 and 2015 salaries by $2M each
2nd or 3rd place in 2009-13 MVP votes increases 2014 and 2015 salaries by $1M each (up to maximum of twice, for $2M increase)
2015 club option and buyout are voided if Pedroia wins MVP in 2008 (met) and is traded
award bonuses: $50,000 each for All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, LCS MVP; $0.1M for WS MVP; $0.1M for MVP ($75,000 for 2nd in vote, $50,000 for 3rd)
perks: suite on road
So what about a 6-year, $35.5 million contract with a club option in 2018 for $15 million or a $1 million buyout. The option could be voided if he wins the MVP in any of those years. We could include some escalators similar to the ones Pedroia got. If he finishes first or second in the MVP voting in any year, the club option is voided and his salary the following years is increased by $1.5 million. So if he won the MVP next year, he’d earn $1.5 million more each of the remaining years of the contract.
2012: 1
2013: 2
2014: 4.5
2015: 7.5
2016: 10
2017: 10.5
2018: 11
I’d be more than happy to see that kind of contract. I don’t want Castro paid more than Lester or Pedroia. He’s just not as good as either of them, but if they can buy out his remaining club controlled years and a free agency year at slightly less than Pedroia, I’m all for it.
What about you guys? What’s a reasonable extension for Castro? Or should they not even bother with one? Wait a year or two?
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]Hard to believe he is becoming the Cubs best and smartest option, but, as the Dusted One would say, it is what it is.[/quote](dying laughing) I miss the Dusted One.
(dying laughing)
I’d say given the very real possibility he doesn’t stick at SS that the Cubs should wait a little longer. As you pointed out, even if he stays a SS there’s still plenty of risk involved with such an extension, adding a potential position change that could wreck his value puts it into too much risk versus reward territory at this stage.
Yeah, the position change is an issue. If he has to move to 3rd, 2nd or CF, we can subtract a lot of money and at that point Castro is probably better off going year to year.
I’d wait on it too, but the proposed extension sounds reasonable enough.
I wonder if Castro can hit well enough for 3B in a couple years. If so, and they snag a competent SS, the entire left side of the infield would become a wall with Castro’s range. I’d actually like to see that.
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing)[/quote]
My employer is very strict.
I’d probably go with CF first. No idea if he can play it or not, but other SS have made the conversion. Hopefully he can stick at SS, though I’m not convinced he can.
http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2011/11/02/112-ramirez-officially-free-agent/
So if Ramirez is signed before December, they don’t even have to offer him arbitration. At least that’s what Wikipedia says.
[quote name=mb21]I’d probably go with CF first. No idea if he can play it or not, but other SS have made the conversion. Hopefully he can stick at SS, though I’m not convinced he can.[/quote]I’m thinking that CF wouldn’t work because of Brett Jackson, but then again nobody knows what BJax can do at MLB.
[quote name=mb21]I’m fine with LaHair too, but in all the years I’ve been following winter leagues, that’s been said about a million times and not once has it been true. Most teams don’t look at winter league numbers and change their opinions too much.[/quote]He was saying pretty much the exact same thing before winter leagues started, for what it’s worth.
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2011/11/02/112-ramirez-officially-free-agent/
So if Ramirez is signed before December, they don’t even have to offer him arbitration. At least that’s what Wikipedia says.[/quote]Yep. I thought you had to offer arbitration, but apparently picking up the option is the same thing.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I wonder if Castro can hit well enough for 3B in a couple years. If so, and they snag a competent SS, the entire left side of the infield would become a wall with Castro’s range. I’d actually like to see that.[/quote]
I don’t think his power numbers in the most optmistic of worlds would look overly fantastic at 3rd base. the best we could hope for is that he would be decent at 3rd. A move to 2nd or CF would fir his hitting profile better. IMO.
[quote name=ACT]He was saying pretty much the exact same thing before winter leagues started, for what it’s worth.[/quote]Yeah, KG has said for the last few months that scouts keep telling him LaHair can play. He’s never going to be great, but I think he can be average. At league minimum that’s a lot of value.
[quote name=Aisle424]I don’t think his power numbers in the most optmistic of worlds would look overly fantastic at 3rd base. the best we could hope for is that he would be decent at 3rd. A move to 2nd or CF would fir his hitting profile better. IMO.[/quote]I agree, but if he could become a Placido Polanco at 3rd, he could easily stay there. I remember Tom Tango looking at Polanco and Jeter a few years ago. They were both projected to be equal to one another. Polanco gets paid shit. It’s a weird world.
[quote name=mb21]Yep. I thought you had to offer arbitration, but apparently picking up the option is the same thing.[/quote]I’m guessing that the new front office knows what’s up and would’ve offered arbitration to ensure the draft pick. Learn a new thing every day though.
I really liked LaHair last year because he had some great at-bats. Sometimes he made an out anyway, but he really worked some long at-bats in late-inning close situations. I was very impressed by his approach, and you can’t argue with his results too much either.
I think the Superfriends will definitely be looking to expand his role in some way with the 2012 team.
[quote name=Aisle424]I don’t think his power numbers in the most optmistic of worlds would look overly fantastic at 3rd base. the best we could hope for is that he would be decent at 3rd. A move to 2nd or CF would fir his hitting profile better. IMO.[/quote]Wood pun?
If Casto is center, then would B-Jax be all right in left or right? Or do they trade B-Jax in that sort of scenario?
Especially if Carlos Pena is going to insist on a multi-year deal (I would, if I were him).
Yeah, the only question is will he be a bench player or a starter (or maybe a platoon)?
[quote name=josh]Wood pun?
If Casto is center, then would B-Jax be all right in left or right? Or do they trade B-Jax in that sort of scenario?[/quote]I think I’d move Castro to 2B before I stuck him in the OF. Kind of marginalizes his arm strength but his range is still useful there.
[quote name=Aisle424]Especially if Carlos Pena is going to insist on a multi-year deal (I would, if I were him).[/quote]Just so we’re clear, you WOULD have to offer Pena arbitration to snag that draft pick, right? (dying laughing)
[quote name=Aisle424]Especially if Carlos Pena is going to insist on a multi-year deal (I would, if I were him).[/quote]I would too. I think the Cubs look to acquire Fielder, but they end up going with Lahair at 1st. They may acquire a righty he might platoon with.
[quote name=josh]Wood pun?
If Casto is center, then would B-Jax be all right in left or right? Or do they trade B-Jax in that sort of scenario?[/quote]Like RC mentioned, I think BJax is a huge wildcard right now. He projects best in CF, but that is assuming he can even play at the ML level.
Assuming BJax can play, then yeah, CF isn’t really an option for Castro. But that is an assumption I’m not comfortable with making right now.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Just so we’re clear, you WOULD have to offer Pena arbitration to snag that draft pick, right? (dying laughing)[/quote]Yes.
If Pena wants that multi-year deal then I think the Cubs offer him arbitration if he’s not signed by 11/23 (the arb deadline), assuming I’m understanding the rules correctly.
If Jackson can play CF, you keep him there. CF, SS, 2B and 3B are hard enough to come by. I don’t think you wan to move anyone away from any of those positions unless the player needs to be moved. So 3rd or 2nd makes the most sense for Castro, but it’s a decision that won’t be made for a year or two.
Would Jimmy Rollins fit at 3rd base? He’s getting older and might come a little cheaper. Can you put him at SS and move Starlin to 2nd? I have no loyalty at all to Darwin Barney. He’s a nice story and I wish him well, but he’s a utility player at best.
[quote name=Rice Cube]If Pena wants that multi-year deal then I think the Cubs offer him arbitration if he’s not signed by 11/23 (the arb deadline), assuming I’m understanding the rules correctly.[/quote]Yeah, they have to offer it by that date. I imagine they’ll wait to see what the market is like before offering arbitration to him as you said. Unless they don’t mind having him back at which point they may as well go ahead and offer arbitration now.
[quote name=Aisle424]Would Jimmy Rollins fit at 3rd base? He’s getting older and might come a little cheaper. Can you put him at SS and move Starlin to 2nd? I have no loyalty at all to Darwin Barney. He’s a nice story and I wish him well, but he’s a utility player at best.[/quote]I have a theory that the Cubs may try to stay away from the Type A free agents because they are interested in rebuilding the farm, which you can’t do as well if you give up draft picks. Rollins is Type A and frankly he doesn’t impress…but I don’t like anything.
[quote name=Rice Cube]If Pena wants that multi-year deal then I think the Cubs offer him arbitration if he’s not signed by 11/23 (the arb deadline), assuming I’m understanding the rules correctly.[/quote]
Yeah, I think offering him arbitration would be a safe move. What would he get if he agreed? It’s not like it would completely fuck up a plan the Cubs currently have to fill that spot from the inside. Worst case scenario he’d get, what, $13-$14 million for one year?
[quote name=Rice Cube]I have a theory that the Cubs may try to stay away from the Type A free agents because they are interested in rebuilding the farm, which you can’t do as well if you give up draft picks. Rollins is Type A and frankly he doesn’t impress…but I don’t like anything.[/quote]Do you have to give up a draft pick if you also lose a Type A? I forget what we decided the rule was. Not that the Cubs have any Type As to worry about.
Ryan Theriot will be a free agent next year so by 2013 we might be so lucky to have that winning grinder playing SS while Castro moves to LF.
It’s weird to think that the Cubs have possibilities now that they didn’t have under Hendry simply because I don’t think there are any sacred cows left. Dempster, Byrd, Soto, Marmol, Marshall are all theoretically movable for the right price since there aren’t any emotional ties to them with the Superfriends.
[quote name=mb21]Ryan Theriot will be a free agent next year so by 2013 we might be so lucky to have that winning grinder playing SS while Castro moves to LF.[/quote]
This is the worst thing every done on this blog.
[quote name=josh]Do you have to give up a draft pick if you also lose a Type A? I forget what we decided the rule was. Not that the Cubs have any Type As to worry about.[/quote]Losing a Type A free agent nets the team that lost the player the top unprotected pick from the signing team, plus a sandwich pick. The Cubs’ top pick is protected in the first round, but they’d lose their second rounder if they signed Prince Fielder or similar.
Isn’t there a LaRoche brother or two free? Those guys can play 1B/3B and they aren’t very good. Wait, I forget what the new plan is for the Cubs. To not suck? Then forget that plan.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Losing a Type A free agent nets the team that lost the player the top unprotected pick from the signing team, plus a sandwich pick. The Cubs’ top pick is protected in the first round, but they’d lose their second rounder if they signed Prince Fielder or similar.[/quote]Since they can theoretically sign up to three Type A free agents, they could lose their 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks. Not really good for a rebuild project, but nice if you want to contend next year I guess.
It is interesting that you can’t trade draft picks, but you can lose/gain draft picks through free agency. Makes no sense.
[quote name=Aisle424]It is interesting that you can’t trade draft picks, but you can lose/gain draft picks through free agency. Makes no sense.[/quote]It might have something to do with baseball players being so dirt cheap in the early parts of their careers (signing bonuses aside). But I agree that they should be allowed to trade picks.
[quote name=Aisle424]It is interesting that you can’t trade draft picks, but you can lose/gain draft picks through free agency. Makes no sense.[/quote]Why is that? NFL trades draft picks all the time. Gives a poor team leverage for now.
Wait a minute….who the hell is Alberto Cabrera?
Mike Quade:
[quote name=mb21]I would too. I think the Cubs look to acquire Fielder, but they end up going with Lahair at 1st. They may acquire a righty he might platoon with.[/quote]
I thought that too, but now I’m not so sure they’ll even make much of an effort. Given the contract he is likely to command, the obvious risks that come with his size, his relatively uneven performance to date, and the new regime’s early emphasis on defense, baserunning, and athleticism (not exactly Fielder’s best features), I’m thinking they barely even kick the proverbial tires.
And more and more I agree. Going forward I think it’s a better bet Fielder settles in as a consistent 3-4 WAR 1B than a 5-6 WAR, and even that won’t be for much beyond the first three years of the deal I don’t think.
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[quote name=Rice Cube]Mike Quade:
true?
[quote name=josh]for true?[/quote]True lies.
That’s what the Twitters says…lemme see if I can find another confirmation.
Hmm.
[quote name=Rice Cube]True lies.
That’s what the Twitters says…lemme see if I can find another confirmation.[/quote]Just saw the Twitter repost on MLBTR. Not unexpected at all. Good to have it official. Let the New Cubs begin.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Hmm.[/quote]Jon Morosi twitterized the same thing.
[quote name=Aisle424]Yeah, I think offering him arbitration would be a safe move. What would he get if he agreed? It’s not like it would completely fuck up a plan the Cubs currently have to fill that spot from the inside. Worst case scenario he’d get, what, $13-$14 million for one year?[/quote]They could always trade LaHair if that happens.
[quote name=Rice Cube]True lies.
That’s what the Twitters says…lemme see if I can find another confirmation.[/quote]
It’s true. Per Bag End:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-quade-20111101,0,1100346.story
Hasta la vista, cuey.
I’m in a weird position with respect to Quade. Q’s in-game strategy drove me nuts sometimes, but I think that a lot of the criticism I’ve read of him is unfair. Also, the mistakes he does make are often the mistakes other managers make.
[quote name=ACT]I’m in a weird position with respect to Quade. Q’s in-game strategy drove me nuts sometimes, but I think that a lot of the criticism I’ve read of him is unfair. Also, the mistakes he does make are often the mistakes other managers make.[/quote]I pretty much agree. He seemed like an okay guy, to me. He did a pretty good job of staying low-key with the media. He seemed to know his shit. He said Garza pitched well, despite “the numbers” which the (advanced) numbers pretty much agree with. I didn’t hate him or anything.
Ryno is out: http://twitter.com/#!/jonmorosi/status/131802267463593984
That said, I’m cool with Theo wanting someone who is 100% in-line with his vision for the team. I’d like to see an org in lock-step.
[quote name=ACT]Ryno is out: http://twitter.com/#!/jonmorosi/status/131802267463593984/quoteI'm not sure if I like this or not. I think I like that Theo and friends are methodical in their choices, but I don’t like that Ryno probably won’t get a chance to manage the Cubs in the foreseeable future. Oh well, I guess he’ll manage the Phillies when they get sick of Charlie Manuel.
Huh.
http://twitter.com/#!/CarrieMuskat/statuses/131805714988539904
Agreed. I’m not disappointed in the decision.
[quote name=Aisle424]Huh.
http://twitter.com/#!/CarrieMuskat/statuses/131805714988539904/quoteWhat do you know of Dale Sveum?
/thrust microphone at purple shirt guy
So, are the people who think Hendry “snubbed” Ryno going to rail against Theo & co. now?
[quote name=ACT]So, are the people who think Hendry “snubbed” Ryno going to rail against Theo & co. now?[/quote]Conspiracy theorists may suggest that Theo & Co may be setting up another patsy to fail in 2012 so they can hire Ryno in 2013 (dying laughing)
[quote name=ACT]I’m in a weird position with respect to Quade. Q’s in-game strategy drove me nuts sometimes, but I think that a lot of the criticism I’ve read of him is unfair. Also, the mistakes he does make are often the mistakes other managers make.[/quote]
Agreed, but manager shuffling is more about PR than anything else, and symbolically speaking, Quade is, unfairly perhaps, tied to the Old Cub Way.
And if the Cubs don’t plan on doing much this offseason to improve in the short-term, they’ll need to make splashes in other ways. Firing Quade and hiring, say, Ryne Sandberg, is a shrewd way to score some big PR points, even if nothing much will change on the field.
Ryne Sandberg may be the best manager in the history of the world, but I doubt it and I’d prefer that I never see him raked over the coals like his predecessors were because the team is no good.
The reality is that the manager they hire now is likely not going to be the manager that wins a World Series for the Cubs. They’ll be hiring a Doug Collins and the next guy will be Phil Jackson.
Or in baseball terms, this guy will be Buck Showalter.
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111102&content_id=25872562&vkey=news_chc&c_id=chc
per cubs.com
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]Agreed, but manager shuffling is more about PR than anything else, and symbolically speaking, Quade is, unfairly perhaps, tied to the Old Cub Way.
And if the Cubs don’t plan on doing much this offseason to improve in the short-term, they’ll need to make splashes in other ways. Firing Quade and hiring, say, Ryne Sandberg, is a shrewd way to score some big PR points, even if nothing much will change on the field.[/quote][quote name=josh]I pretty much agree. He seemed like an okay guy, to me. He did a pretty good job of staying low-key with the media. He seemed to know his shit. He said Garza pitched well, despite “the numbers” which the (advanced) numbers pretty much agree with. I didn’t hate him or anything.[/quote]
I suspect this had everything to do with his intellect and his willingness to submit to the new regime. Quade always struck me as a good, genuine guy, but not really a great mind. This new regime wants someone who will not only buy into the Cubs Way (TM) but also understand it.
No Ryno from that statement either…
[quote name=Rice Cube]I’m not sure if I like this or not. I think I like that Theo and friends are methodical in their choices, but I don’t like that Ryno probably won’t get a chance to manage the Cubs in the foreseeable future. Oh well, I guess he’ll manage the Phillies when they get sick of Charlie Manuel.[/quote]
I’ve said this all along. Why hire a guy who is unproven when you can afford a guy who isn’t. Just like the GM choice, no need to take a flyer on someone when you have the resources to go for something approaching a sure thing.
[quote name=26.2cubsfan]I suspect this had everything to do with his intellect and his willingness to submit to the new regime. Quade always struck me as a good, genuine guy, but not really a great mind. This new regime wants someone who will not only buy into the Cubs Way (TM) but also understand it.[/quote]Exactly. I’m fine with the decision. I’d like to see a new style of managing in Chicago, if possible, instead of just guts and instincts.
[quote name=26.2cubsfan]I’ve said this all along. Why hire a guy who is unproven when you can afford a guy who isn’t. Just like the GM choice, no need to take a flyer on someone when you have the resources to go for something approaching a sure thing.[/quote]I agree with that. Just kind of sad from a fan’s point of view, but as 424 said, better not to have Ryno raked over the coals.
I also hate the idea I see frequently that the Cubs owe Ryno a job because he grinded it out in the minors. Ryno benefited greatly from serving his service as a minor league manager. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get a major league job soon.
[quote name=Aisle424]Ryne Sandberg may be the best manager in the history of the world, but I doubt it and I’d prefer that I never see him raked over the coals like his predecessors were because the team is no good.
The reality is that the manager they hire now is likely not going to be the manager that wins a World Series for the Cubs. They’ll be hiring a Doug Collins and the next guy will be Phil Jackson.
Or in baseball terms, this guy will be Buck Showalter.[/quote]
Maybe, but Ricketts seems to be giving the Superfriends a 5 year leash, which means patience on the part of ownership. I would suspect a similar approach with the manager. But you’re right, managers are much more expendable than the FO staff…
Can someone reassure me that the Cubs won’t hire Bob Brenly?
[quote name=Aisle424]It’s weird to think that the Cubs have possibilities now that they didn’t have under Hendry simply because I don’t think there are any sacred cows left. Dempster, Byrd, Soto, Marmol, Marshall are all theoretically movable for the right price since there aren’t any emotional ties to them with the Superfriends.[/quote]I meant to mention that. More specifically I meant to mention why the Cubs should absolutely trade Carlos Marmol. He’s being paid $16 million over the next 2 years. While he may be worth that (he probably is), the Cubs have Marshall for another year at $3 million. If you trade Marmol and get anything useful, you’ve got that in return, a good close in Marshall for only $3 million. Marshall could be dealt at the deadline or you could extend him to a reasonable contract. Or you could let him walk at the end of the season. He’d probably be a type A free agent. You get 2 draft picks. Then you move Cashner, Carpenter, McNutt or someone else into the late inning role. There’s no reason for this team to keep Marmol.
Is it true that the Cards have requested permission from the Phillies to interview Ryno? I will (dying laughing) if they hire him. Cubs fans would be outraged.
[quote name=melissa]Is it true that the Cards have requested permission from the Phillies to interview Ryno? I will (dying laughing) if they hire him. Cubs fans would be outraged.[/quote]Ken Rosenthal says: “correct”
Given Theo’s statement–
–it sounds like he’s looking for The Guy, not a warm body to hold the fort down until the SuperFriends can build a decent roster.
Otherwise, why fire Quade? Why not let him play out the string? Why hire a “Doug Collins” when, for all intents and purposes, you already have him?
Ryno —-> no Cubs
/officially official
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]Given Theo’s statement–
–it sounds like he’s looking for The Guy, not a warm body to hold the fort down until the SuperFriends can build a decent roster.
Otherwise, why fire Quade? Why not let him play out the string? Why hire a “Doug Collins” when, for all intents and purposes, you already have him?[/quote]
I’m sure they are hiring a guy who could theoretically take them to the next step, but the manager is almost always the sacrificial lamb. In order to have the fans still buying into what the Superfriends are selling, someone will have to pay for the “failure” of the next couple of seasons.
So yeah, they have to hire like this is their manager for the next 10 years, but in reality, I doubt this manager is “The One.”
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ken Rosenthal says: “correct”[/quote]I love the off-season. So much intrigue!
Just heard that Theo sent message to Ryno thru Phillies that he is not going to be one of the Superfriends. (dying laughing)
[quote name=melissa]Just heard that Theo sent message to Ryno thru Phillies that he is not going to be one of the Superfriends. (dying laughing)[/quote]Ryno —> Legion of Doom
Supposedly Theo is a huge fan of Dale Sveum. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him get an interview. He’s getting one in Boston, isn’t he?
[quote name=mb21]Supposedly Theo is a huge fan of Dale Sveum. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him get an interview. He’s getting one in Boston, isn’t he?[/quote]I think it was supposed to be today.
Are there any SABR-minded managers available out there? With experience, I mean? Their statement would rule out Dave Martinez, Francona’s bench coach, and probably a few other candidates I’m not thinking of right now.
Was Francona a SABR guy, or was he just someone who pushed the buttons on the machine that Theo gave him?
[quote name=Aisle424]I think it was supposed to be today.[/quote]I recall reading something on the Boston Globe site about how big a fan Theo is. I believe he was the first to reach out to Sveum and if that’s true, I expect he’ll be the first and perhaps only one they talk to. With him potentially being offered the Boston gig, my guess is the Cubs move fast if they want him.
[quote name=mb21]I recall reading something on the Boston Globe site about how big a fan Theo is. I believe he was the first to reach out to Sveum and if that’s true, I expect he’ll be the first and perhaps only one they talk to. With him potentially being offered the Boston gig, my guess is the Cubs move fast if they want him.[/quote]They might have to throw in a pony.
I can’t get on Google. Who is Dave Sveum?
[quote name=josh]I can’t get on Google. Who is Dave Sveum?[/quote]Brewers hitting coach/interim manager in ’08.
[quote name=Aisle424]Are there any SABR-minded managers available out there? With experience, I mean? Their statement would rule out Dave Martinez, Francona’s bench coach, and probably a few other candidates I’m not thinking of right now.
Was Francona a SABR guy, or was he just someone who pushed the buttons on the machine that Theo gave him?[/quote]I still can’t remember the book, but I know it was a BP one. Anyway, after Francona was fired by the Phillies he was hired as a coach for the A’s. I don’t think he ever became a huge numbers guy, but it supposedly had a huge impact on his ability to coach. I don’t know how true that is. It’s easy to say something without any real evidence.
I’d say based on Theo’s comments that Francona is out. The issues the Red Sox had in the clubhouse would seem to rule him out IMO.
Saber coaches? I don’t think there are any. I think all managers are going to make decisions based on small samples they shouldn’t be using. They think they know something that they don’t. Pinch hitting for an MVP with someone like Koyie Hill once worked. The manager remembers that.
I think Theo was a fan of Martinez too.
[quote name=ACT]Brewers hitting coach/interim manager in ’08.[/quote]Oh okay. Pronounced like “Swaim”? That sounds familiar now.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ryno —-> no Cubs
/officially official[/quote]
Going on three years now.
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2011/11/02/sveum_is_on_deck_for_interview_with_red_sox_today/
according to this:
“and he must have managerial or coaching experience at the major league level.”
Dave Martinez is not ruled out. Bench coach for Maddon right?
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Going on three years now.[/quote]RC = Chicago media
I wonder how long that will continue as guys like Sam Fuld retire and move into the coaching ranks. I could see someone like him really embracing that aspect as he already has a sense of the larger picture as a player. I’m sure there are others, so I’m not about to start a Hire Sam Fuld campaign, but he was the one who came immediately to mind.
[quote name=8volumesthick]according to this:
“and he must have managerial or coaching experience at the major league level.”
Dave Martinez is not ruled out. Bench coach for Maddon right?[/quote]Glossed right over the “coaching” aspect. I got hung up on managerial experience. I bet I’d catch a lot of this stuff if I wasn’t so hungry.
[quote name=Aisle424]I wonder how long that will continue as guys like Sam Fuld retire and move into the coaching ranks. I could see someone like him really embracing that aspect as he already has a sense of the larger picture as a player. I’m sure there are others, so I’m not about to start a Hire Sam Fuld campaign, but he was the one who came immediately to mind.[/quote]I had suggested this in jest on our Facebook, but make Sam Fuld a player-coach. He can tinker around with lineups and stuff in the first seven innings, then replace someone in the outfield at the end of the game. It might just work.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ryno —> Legion of Doom[/quote]
(dying laughing)
http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2011/10/31/why-dale-sveum-candidate-manage-red-sox
I’m on board with Sveum. He’s probably as close to saber as you can get for a manager.
[quote name=Aisle424]I wonder how long that will continue as guys like Sam Fuld retire and move into the coaching ranks. I could see someone like him really embracing that aspect as he already has a sense of the larger picture as a player. I’m sure there are others, so I’m not about to start a Hire Sam Fuld campaign, but he was the one who came immediately to mind.[/quote]I think as the younger generation takes over, we’ll see more stats-driven managers, but I wonder if they’ll be using the right stats.
Cardinals asked permission to interview Sandberg.
[quote name=Aisle424]I wonder how long that will continue as guys like Sam Fuld retire and move into the coaching ranks. I could see someone like him really embracing that aspect as he already has a sense of the larger picture as a player. I’m sure there are others, so I’m not about to start a Hire Sam Fuld campaign, but he was the one who came immediately to mind.[/quote]That’s a good point. Subsequent generations of managers will get more saber-minded as FO’s continue to embrace advanced metrics, since they’ll be creating those players. Plus, Fuld is a smart guy.
[quote name=8volumesthick]according to this:
“and he must have managerial or coaching experience at the major league level.”
Dave Martinez is not ruled out. Bench coach for Maddon right?[/quote]
That’s what I understood it to mean. I thought it was the nice way of saying not Sandburg but anyone on an MLB bench.
It’s a good thing Theo said that because I was about to apply for the job.
anyone working on something about Quade being fired?
[quote name=mb21]It’s a good thing Theo said that because I was about to apply for the job.[/quote]Just exaggerate your qualifications. They don’t check very thoroughly.
[quote name=ACT]Just exaggerate your qualifications. They don’t check very thoroughly.[/quote]
I could see MB getting the Carl Crawford private eye treatment (dying laughing)
Claim to be an obscure Orioles manager, like Sam Perlozzo. No one knows who he is, right?
[quote name=ACT]Just exaggerate your qualifications. They don’t check very thoroughly.[/quote]Superb at building sustained success. I’m a great leader and have terrific communication skills; I place an emphasis on preparation and accountability; I will establish high standards and a winning culture; I have integrity and an open mind; and I have managerial or coaching experience at the major league level.
[quote name=mb21]Superb at building sustained success. I’m a great leader and have terrific communication skills; I place an emphasis on preparation and accountability; I will establish high standards and a winning culture; I have integrity and an open mind; and I have managerial or coaching experience at the major league level.[/quote]Say you were a coach for the Orioles. No one follows them, anyway.
[quote name=josh]Claim to be an obscure Orioles manager, like Sam Perlozzo. No one knows who he is, right?[/quote][quote name=ACT]Say you were a coach for the Orioles. No one follows them, anyway.[/quote]I sense a meme.
Wow, I didn’t even read josh’s post. Eerie.
[quote name=ACT]Wow, I didn’t even read josh’s post. Eerie.[/quote]It’s because he was posting about the Orioles. Even the Orioles won’t pay attention to those.
I wonder if the O’s would hire me to be their GM.
I might accept the job.
Cubs news —-> suddenly abundant
New jobs created daily:
http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/cubs-and-quade-call-it-quits.html
[quote name=Rice Cube]It’s because he was posting about the Orioles. Even the Orioles won’t pay attention to those.[/quote]Most people’s brains automatically ignore any sentence with the word “Orioles” in it. Bird watchers being the exception, and are therefore subject to constant disappointment.
[quote name=josh]. Bird watchers being the exception, and are therefore subject to constant disappointment.[/quote]
Neyer doesn’t read this blog!
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