Brett Jackson was the Cubs first round pick in 2009 and the 31st pick overall. It was the first time that I could remember that the Cubs selected someone who knew how to get on base. Jackson took a lot of walks on college and there was never any doubt as to his ability to reach base. He also had a lot of strikeouts, which concerned some people. It didn’t bother me. It was the change in philosophy that I liked most. I liked that even more than I liked picking Jackson and I though he had a very good chance to become a star for the Cubs.
I had become too familiar with the Cubs and their tendency to draft guys in the top rounds who could not get on base. Guys like Luis Montanez, Corey Patterson, Ryan Harvey, Tyler Colvin and even Josh Vitters. These guys couldn’t take a walk to save their lives. Brooks Kieschnick was OK, but far from great. Off the top of my head I look back at Kevin Orie as the last position player the Cubs drafted in the first round who actually knew how to take some pitches. I can’t remember too much about the skills of the players before him. Guys like Doug Glanville, Earl Cunningham, Ty Griffin and Derrick May. I should look into that sometime, but it’s not important here.
In 2009 the Cubs finally chose a guy who could work the count and I was thrilled. Not only could he work the count, but he hit for average, power, played a premium defensive position in CF, reportedly had a strong throwing arm and could get on base. While none of these tools apparently grade out as excellent, they were all above average. For years the Cubs had their so-called five tool talents. The only problem with guys like Patterson, Felix Pie and Ryan Harvey is that they weren’t five tool talents. None of them could get on base at a high enough rate for that to even be considered above average. Not without hitting for a high average anyway. In Brett Jackson they had a guy who you could fairly easily see hitting .300/.400/.500. I don’t think the Cubs have drafted anybody in at least ten years in the top few rounds who you could look at and think they could someday reasonably hit that well.
Jackson could easily have flamed out. The strikeouts could have been too difficult to overcome. There was certainly a possibility as there is with any prospect. It wasn’t that I thought Jackson was a for sure top talent in the draft. I liked it because he could get on base and that’s something the Cubs have not valued highly enough in the top round of the draft.
It’s now Jackson’s age 22 season and after his first full minor league season in 2010 he had already played about half a season at AA. He returned to AA to start the season this year and all he’s done so far is post a wOBA greater than .500. That’s all. It’s a small sample of course. He’s not Barry Bonds or Babe Ruth. Don’t get that excited.
Jackson has 4 doubles, 2 triples, 3 home runs, 12 walks, 6 stolen bases and he’s slugging over .750. He’s hit at every single level he’s been and he’s probably not long for AA. He won’t continue to hit as well as he has so far, but I think it’s becoming clear that AA just isn’t presenting him with much of a challenge at this point.
He’s almost certainly going to get some playing time this season for the Cubs. It could be as late as September, but I think it will be sometime in June. I think he continues to hit well enough the Cubs simply can’t overlook how damn good he is. It’s also easier for the Cubs because it’s not like they have an awesome hitting outfield or anything. It’s a very poor hitting outfield. The Cubs left fielder, Alfonso Soriano, is projected to hit .338 (wOBA) this season. Marlon Byrd is a bit worse at .335, Tyler Colvin is at .328. Kosuke Fukudome is the best hitting outfield and that’s largely because his playing time against lefties has been limited. His projected wOBA is .342. Brett Jackson’s projected wOBA is .326.
There’s actually very little difference in the projections between Brett Jackson and Kosuke Fukudome who has the best projected wOBA among the outfielders. Since Fukudome, Soriano and Colvin are corner outfielders, they’re not as valuable as Jackson who plays a much tougher defensive position. Byrd is the most valuable outfielder the Cubs have, but he plays CF. He’s projected to hit about 10 points of wOBA higher than Jackson, which isn’t at all significant. Byrd’s updated projection would be a bit lower while Jackson’s would be higher, but Byrd would still be the better hitter as far as projections go. Defensively, I don’t know. Your guess is as good as mine. Byrd isn’t a great defender, but word is that Jackson isn’t a terrific one either. It’s probably fair to consider them equal on defense.
As a result, Jackson would be the superior player to the other outfielders. His defense in a corner would be better than any of the others and since Jackson has shown an ability to hit lefties while Fukudome has struggled, we can safely assume Jackson is the second most valuable outfielder in the Cubs organization.
We don’t want to bring him up to play a corner outfield spot though. That would be stupid. His value to this team in the future is as a CF and that’s where you want to keep him. Since Byrd is the better player right now, you keep Jackson in the minors even though he’s the team’s second best outfielder. If you can move Byrd at some point in the near future, go ahead and do so. There won’t be much of a loss, if any, if you switch to Jackson in CF. Jackson may even prove to be significantly better right out of the gate.
My guess is that is that Jackson hits well enough to earn a promotion to Iowa in the next 4 to 5 weeks and anytime after that he could get called up. I’d be kind of surprised if we don’t see Jackson sometime in June. I think the Cubs will make room for him in CF at some point. I know we’ve heard rumors about Marlon Byrd and the Nationals, but it’s too early for that. Each year it seems we hear about a player this early in the season the Cubs are looking to trade or even discussing with another team. Trades usually don’t happen this early in the season.
I thought the Cubs played in Los Angeles. I was looking forward to listening to Vin Scully call a Cubs game.
The Cubs could always call up Jackson and put him in a 3-man moroon with Kosuke and Colvin (dying laughing)
Maybe.
[quote name=dylanj]texas will still find a way to lose to kstate[/quote]
Probably. I think we did beat you guys one time.
I’m going to see Jackson play this weekend in Jacksonville, FL. I’m real excited about his future with the Cubs. I’ve already started hearing rumors about Marlon Byrd being traded at some point this season to make room for Jackson.
Does Jackson project to be our leadoff hitter? I know he can take walks, and can steal bases…. I just didn’t know if the Cubs brass think of him as our leadoff guy of the future.
6 days until the draft jg
[quote name=Tyler Smith]I’m going to see Jackson play this weekend in Jacksonville, FL. I’m real excited about his future with the Cubs. I’ve already started hearing rumors about Marlon Byrd being traded at some point this season to make room for Jackson.
Does Jackson project to be our leadoff hitter? I know he can take walks, and can steal bases…. I just didn’t know if the Cubs brass think of him as our leadoff guy of the future.[/quote]
If he has any speed at all I think Quade puts him first or second. This team is glacial on the bases.
to me Jackson is profiles as a better 3 hitter than Castro due to the power.
From everything I’ve heard, he’s the Cubs leadoff man when he gets to the big leagues. Maybe not at first, but soon after he will be. I expect we’ll see Jackson and Castro batting 1-2 for a long time. I think the talk about Castro being a 3-hitter is way too early. He’s the ideal number 2 hitter for the traditional lineups. He has excellent bat control, makes contact, has some speed, etc.
[quote name=dylanj]to me Jackson is profiles as a better 3 hitter than Castro due to the power.[/quote]I agree. I think we’ll see Jackson move down to the 3 spot at some point, but early on he’s going to be leading off. I’ve never heard the Cubs talk about Jackson in any other way than a leadoff hitter. His OBP will be awfully nice in that spot.
Good read from Joe Pos:
http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/04/20/the-hall-of-not-famous-enough/?eref=sihp
Don’t forget about Matt Szczzcxzczczur, who Hendry is very excited about. Where does he project? I think the Cubs might see him as the CF of the future.
[quote name=dylanj]6 days until the draft jg[/quote]
Oh, I’m ready…for SF to fuck it up. The only thing I’m optimistic about is the QB situation. I think we take two and I’m confident in the person making that decision.
[quote name=Steve Swisher]Don’t forget about Matt Szczzcxzczczur, who Hendry is very excited about. Where does he project?[/quote]
To an NFL tryout in 4-5 years.
[quote name=mb21]I agree. I think we’ll see Jackson move down to the 3 spot at some point, but early on he’s going to be leading off. I’ve never heard the Cubs talk about Jackson in any other way than a leadoff hitter. His OBP will be awfully nice in that spot.[/quote]
If they move Byrd to do it, do you think they bump everyone in the middle of the lineup up a spot or move Pena to 3rd? Given how he’s been hitting he probably wouldn’t if it happened tomorrow.
yeah im not so sold on szczczczczur
What’s the news on Reggie Golden?
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]What’s the news on Reggie Golden?[/quote]
He’s black.
[quote name=Jame Gumb]To an NFL tryout in 4-5 years.[/quote]Why are you down on Szczur?
[quote name=Jame Gumb]He’s black.[/quote]No he’s not. He’s more of a darkish brown.
reggie is struggling down in extended spring training
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]No he’s not. He’s more of an average brown.[/quote]/KG’d
I figure Szczur had a long way to go. If he gets on base and plays good defense he could play CF at the big league level, but it doesn’t look like he has any power and not much speed from what I can tell.
[quote name=Doogolas]Why are you down on Szczur?[/quote]
I’m not big on players whose best (and maybe only) tool is speed. He has mediocre patience and power. To be fair, he wasn’t a full-time baseball player. He could still develop, but I don’t like the prospect he is right now.
I think he would have been drafted by the fourth round by an NFL team as a slot receiver, but whatever.
The better question is why should anyone be high on him? 82 ABs at Boise?
[quote name=mb21]I figure Szczur had a long way to go. If he gets on base and plays good defense he could play CF at the big league level, but it doesn’t look like he has any power and not much speed from what I can tell.[/quote]
mb, Szczur has 80 speed on the 20-80 scale. The guy was the 2nd fastest player in the entire draft last year. He’s just very raw.
He can take a walk and his range is insane with an average arm.
He shouldn’t hit for a ton of power, but he projects to hit 10-15HR or so.
[quote name=Doogolas]He can take a walk and his range is insane with an average arm.
He shouldn’t hit for a ton of power, but he projects to hit 10-15HR or so.[/quote]
He can kind of take a walk. He’s more Josh Vitters than Bert Jackson, though.
He might project to 10-15 HRs, but he’s a long way from that projection. Right now, he’s basically (dying laughing).
[quote name=Jame Gumb]I’m not big on players whose best (and maybe only) tool is speed. He has mediocre patience and power. To be fair, he wasn’t a full-time baseball player. He could still develop, but I don’t like the prospect he is right now.
I think he would have been drafted by the fourth round by an NFL team as a slot receiver, but whatever.
The better question is why should anyone be high on him? 82 ABs at Boise?[/quote]Because he was considered a first round talent that fell to the 4th due to signability? That seems like a perfectly reasonable reason to be high on him.
Plus, for having average patience he has a career BA-OBP of .088, which while not spectacular, is nothing to sneeze at, especially for, as you said, a guy who has never focused only on baseball before.
[quote name=Jame Gumb]He can kind of take a walk. He’s more Josh Vitters than Bert Jackson, though.
He might project to 10-15 HRs, but he’s a long way from that projection. Right now, he’s basically (dying laughing).[/quote]
He’s very, very far from being Josh Vitters. Vitters can’t really take a walk, he’s really good at getting HBP, but very bad at walking. Szczur is certainly no BJax, but in theory he won’t have to be, if he can hit .300 and walk how he’s shown in the minors he can put up an OBP of right around .380. And since he doesn’t strike out a ton, and is super super fast, hitting .300 shouldn’t be too difficult for him.
Granted, it’s still a small sample. But he doesn’t have no patience at the plate.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/peter_king/04/20/2011-nfl-mock-draft/index.html
What the fucking fuck? TEN at No. 8 should pick Andy Dalton?!
[quote name=Jame Gumb]He can kind of take a walk. He’s more Josh Vitters than Bert Jackson, though.
He might project to 10-15 HRs, but he’s a long way from that projection. Right now, he’s basically (dying laughing).[/quote]Agreed. Whatever his projection is, it’s so far off in the future that it’s not worth talking about. Right now he has next to no power. It might improve. He can get on base well enough. He has all of one triple in his MLB career so far so I don’t even buy the speed. He’s not steal bases or hitting triples so I just don’t see it. If he is fast, he’s the slowest fast guy in baseball history.
[quote name=Doogolas]He’s very, very far from being Josh Vitters. Vitters can’t really take a walk, he’s really good at getting HBP, but very bad at walking. Szczur is certainly no BJax, but in theory he won’t have to be, if he can hit .300 and walk how he’s shown in the minors he can put up an OBP of right around .380. And since he doesn’t strike out a ton, and is super super fast, hitting .300 shouldn’t be too difficult for him.
Granted, it’s still a small sample. But he doesn’t have no patience at the plate.[/quote]
I didn’t say he was Josh Vitters, I said he was more Vitters than Jackson. He has an Iso of .07. Vitters’ is .045. Jackson’s is .1.
We’re talking about a good defensive CF whose offensive value depends on hitting .300 or better. To me, that sounds like a fourth OF.
[quote name=Doogolas]He’s very, very far from being Josh Vitters. Vitters can’t really take a walk, he’s really good at getting HBP, but very bad at walking. Szczur is certainly no BJax, but in theory he won’t have to be, if he can hit .300 and walk how he’s shown in the minors he can put up an OBP of right around .380. And since he doesn’t strike out a ton, and is super super fast, hitting .300 shouldn’t be too difficult for him.
Granted, it’s still a small sample. But he doesn’t have no patience at the plate.[/quote]
.380 is a stretch. his current career OBP is 70 points higher than his OBP. Reduce that for each level he has yet to pass and you’re looking at a guy who maybe tops out at posting a .350 OBP if he can hit .300.
He was a 5th rounder and 5th rounders usually don’t make it so no big deal. The Cubs wasted some money, but they didn’t waste a top pick on him so I don’t really care. I hope it works out, but I see him back in the NFL draft too. Then again, I also saw Samardzija going back to the NFL and that unfortunately didn’t happen.
[quote name=mb21]Agreed. Whatever his projection is, it’s so far off in the future that it’s not worth talking about.[/quote]
That’s about where I am. I’m not saying he’s a bad prospect. He has a decent ceiling, but he’s a long way from that ceiling and he’s already 21.
[quote name=Jame Gumb]I didn’t say he was Josh Vitters, I said he was more Vitters than Jackson. He has an Iso of .07. Vitters’ is .045. Jackson’s is .1.
We’re talking about a good defensive CF whose offensive value depends on hitting .300 or better. To me, that sounds like a fourth OF.[/quote]Yeah, and that’s if he can hit .300, which is a stretch. When he hits close to .300 in the high minors I might believe it, but not right now. Besides Szczur is 3 to 5 years away anyway. We’re talking about a guy who might break camp with the Cubs in 2015. MIGHT.
FWIW, the 40 time I saw on f NFL draft boards for Szczur before he signed was 4.45. That’s pretty average speed for an NFL WR, but I’m not sure how that translates into baseball speed.
[quote name=mb21]Then again, I also saw Samardzija going back to the NFL and that unfortunately didn’t happen.[/quote]
I forgot to say that Szczur is basically the position-player version of JefF7. I had high hopes for JefF7 because he had phenomenal stuff and really only needed to improve his command to be successful.
They were both drafted in the fifth and given first-round money. Both football players that would have had a MUCH quicker path to the highest level in the NFL. Both have fairly high ceilings and both were far from reaching that ceiling (though I think JefF7 was closer to his).
I see Szczur being more like James Adduci than any other player in the Cubs system right now.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]FWIW, the 40 time I saw on f NFL draft boards for Szczur before he signed was 4.45. That’s pretty average speed for an NFL WR, but I’m not sure how that translates into baseball speed.[/quote]
In the NFL, Szczur is Wes Welker with a better education.
[quote name=mb21]Besides Szczur is 3 to 5 years away anyway. We’re talking about a guy who might break camp with the Cubs in 2015. MIGHT.[/quote]
And he’d be 24-26 when that happens. How old will he be when his speed declines? 29? 30?
It’s too early to tell and no one really knows what will happen, but Szczur has too many ifs to be considered a prospect worth watching at this point, imo.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]FWIW, the 40 time I saw on f NFL draft boards for Szczur before he signed was 4.45. That’s pretty average speed for an NFL WR, but I’m not sure how that translates into baseball speed.[/quote]We’ve talked about this before, but didn’t Wilson get to 1st in just over 3 seconds. Translate that to running the 40 and it’s much faster. Wilson was ridiculously fast, the speedy guys in baseball are going to be a lot better than a 4.45 40.
[quote name=Jame Gumb]And he’d be 24-26 when that happens. How old will he be when his speed declines? 29? 30?
It’s too early to tell and no one really knows what will happen, but Szczur has too many ifs to be considered a prospect worth watching at this point, imo.[/quote]Speed starts declining at age 22 so there goes his speed being a plus tool. You’re right though. He has some upside, but he’s a long way from it. Right now he’s just someone who might improve. Odds are he won’t.
[quote name=mb21]We’ve talked about this before, but didn’t Wilson get to 1st in just over 3 seconds. Translate that to running the 40 and it’s much faster. Wilson was ridiculously fast, the speedy guys in baseball are going to be a lot better than a 4.45 40.[/quote]
?
I’d like to see Jackson called up soon. For the pure fact that it’ll be something besides Castro and Z that’ll be fun to watch.
[quote name=mb21]Right now he’s just someone who might improve. Odds are he won’t.[/quote]
Oh shit. Am I a prospect hater like you now?
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]I’d like to see Jackson called up soon. For the pure fact that it’ll be something besides Castro and Z to be fun to watch.[/quote]
We’re trying to win games here.
[quote name=Jame Gumb]We’re trying to win games here.[/quote]Well we need to try harder.
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]I’d like to see Jackson called up soon. For the pure fact that it’ll be something besides Castro and Z that’ll be fun to watch.[/quote]Agreed.
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Oh shit. Am I a prospect hater like you now?[/quote]I don’t hate prospects. I just know that most of them fail. Brett Jackson has been by far my favorite prospect the Cubs have had. I’ve always been high on him as you know.
[quote name=Jame Gumb]http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/peter_king/04/20/2011-nfl-mock-draft/index.html
What the fucking fuck? TEN at No. 8 should pick Andy Dalton?![/quote]
Apparently Andy Dalton reads OV and -faget pointed me.
There are negative faget points? How come nobody told me about this?
Don’t get me wrong, I wish the Cubs were better and they do have some nice little players, but they suck.
He did it again!
I think Peter King has a boner for Dalton. He’s got him as Should be picks for like 12 teams.
[quote name=mb21]There are negative faget points? How come nobody told me about this?[/quote]
-faget point.
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]I think Peter King has a boner for Dalton.[/quote]
Several. He’s a ginger Colt McCoy, whom I considered a late second value. I’d be OK with SF reaching a bit and taking Dalton in the second, but No. 8 overall is ridiculous.
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Several. He’s a ginger Colt McCoy, whom I considered a late second value. I’d be OK with SF reaching a bit and taking Dalton in the second, but No. 8 overall is ridiculous.[/quote]Yeah, but every year there seems to be a reach pick that makes you scratch your head like Whitner, Heyward-Bey, Tyson Alualu, etc. Maybe that’s his reach prediction.
new shit http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/previews/series-preview-los-angeles-dodgers-of-los-angeles-10-10-at-chicago-cubs-of-chicago-9-9.html
[quote name=dylanj]reggie is struggling down in extended spring training[/quote]
On thecupreporter, Arizona Phil has really been rough on Golden and his performance this spring. He has continually inferred that Golden has become a great big fat person.
Byrd demoted to the 6th spot in the lineup, while Soriano and Soto are still languishing without dinner at 7 and 8.
Fukadomey
Barn Dance Fever
Starlin Castro
Rodrigo
Peeeenya
The Byrdman!
Adolpho
Geo
Coleman