updated 1-13-12
The 2012 roster is taking shape and it’s not going to be an enjoyable season. The Cubs recently acquired David DeJesus and Ian Stewart. Yesterday they acquired Travis Wood. In the Stewart and Wood trades the Cubs have lost Tyler Colvin, DJ LeMahieu and Sean Marshall. Koyie Hill has been non-tendered and Reed Johnson was re-signed to a one-year contract.
The Cubs do not appear interested in spending much money this offseason so we already have a pretty good idea what the 2012 Cubs are going to look like. Things may change of course, but as of today this is most likely going to be the opening day roster.
Catchers: Geovany Soto, Welington Castillo
1B: Bryan LaHair
2B: Darwin Barney
3B: Ian Stewart
SS: Starlin Castro
INF: Jeff Baker
INF: Blake DeWitt
LF: Alfonso Soriano
CF: Marlon Byrd
RF: David DeJesus
OF: Reed Johnson
OF: Tony Campana or Dave Sappelt
SP1: Matt Garza
SP2: Ryan Dempster
SP3: Paul Maholm
SP4: Travis Wood
SP5: Randy Wells
SP6: Chris Volstad
CL: Carlos Marmol
SU: Kerry Wood (not yet signed)
Rel: James Russell
Rel: Scott Maine
Rel: Jeff Samardzija
Rel: Manny Corpas
I’ve assumed the Cubs and Kerry Wood reach an agreement. With Sean Marshall gone the Cubs have some additional money they can use to sign him. Wood wants to return and Theo and Jed want Wood to be a part of the team. Something will get done.
That’s a really bad offense, OK defense, OK rotation and bad bullpen. Yeah, 2012 is going to suck.
This team is going to be the worst i have ever witnessed. Much worse than 2006.. Unless Lahair is good (doubt it)
Samardzija makes the bullpen over one of Dolis/Mateo. Other than that, I agree although I think Beliveau will take Maine’s spot either in spring training or early in the season.
I think Beliveau will take Maine’s spot as well. Probably not entering the season though. My guess is they’ll keep him down to get that 7th year of service time. Can’t believe I forgot Samardzija. I initially had him as the 5th starter, but then remembered Zambrano is still on the team.
Thanks, Matt. I took out Dolis and put Samardzija in that spot.
Soto — even numbered year
LaHair — gonna break out
Barney brings good D
Stewart — due to bounce back
Castro will be even better than last year
Byrd – contract year
DeJesus – rejuvenated
Soriano – sorry, I can’t do this anymore
MB, wouldn’t you use Clevenger as the backup since that’s what his ceiling is, and keep Castillo in Iowa until Soto is traded so Castillo becomes the new starter?
Ugh. Looking at the 2006 roster, and 2012 looks worse.
[quote name=Rice Cube]MB, wouldn’t you use Clevenger as the backup since that’s what his ceiling is, and keep Castillo in Iowa until Soto is traded so Castillo becomes the new starter?[/quote]Scouts think both are back-ups from what I’ve read. I know Baseball America has said that.
[quote name=Suburban kid]Ugh. Looking at the 2006 roster, and 2012 looks worse.[/quote]At least the 2006 team could say they had a chance if Wood and Prior were healthy. IIRC, pecota had the 2006 Cubs at 84 wins entering the season.
[quote name=mb21]Scouts think both are back-ups from what I’ve read. I know Baseball America has said that.[/quote]Well, that’s a fun-sucker.
[quote name=mb21]At least the 2006 team could say they had a chance if Wood and Prior were healthy. IIRC, pecota had the 2006 Cubs at 84 wins entering the season.[/quote]About six months from now, we’re going to be feeling nostalgic about Jacque Jones.
Staring at this list of players, adding Fielder looks like a gigantic waste of money. On this team, he could slug 1.100 and finish the season with 75 RBIs.
Are there any examples of large market teams going into a complete 5 year rebuild?
I can think of the Marlins doing fire sales after they won the WS and rebuildling, but they claim they had a reason to (small baseball market)
With the new CBA, what’s the downside of getting free agents? Paying more money to put a watchable team on the field? The payroll page as of 12/9 says it wil be $97.8 million. In 2011, that would put us around 13th ranked. What are we doing with the remaining $30 mil? We are a large market team.
But since we are doing a complete rebuild, why re-sign Johnson on a 1-year deal? Why not fill every position with league minimum players unless a player is in the plans for the future. Might as well hit rock bottom if there are no plans to compete.
/incoherent rant
I think the only downside of getting free agents is potential loss of draft picks due to the new compensation rule (the one-year $12MM deal thing) and the luxury tax. If the Cubs stay in the bottom 10, though, they’ll at least keep their #1 pick (dying laughing)
The bullpen doesn’t seem terrible. Russell actually did well in that role last year, Samardzija (as much as I hate to admit it) was decent, I can’t imagine Marmol will be as terrible again this year, Cashner could be a weapon, and Wood will have his flashes of what he once was.
Having Marshall in there would make it a pretty decent bullpen, but as it stands it’s not bad and could still be good if somebody from the system can fill in those remaining holes.
The offense is going to be brutal and there are going to be calls for Brett Jackson if he gets off to any sort of start in the minors or even Spring Training.
Who’s the clean-up hitter? LaHair? I assume Castro is 3rd.
I think the Cubs’ 2012 slogan will be: Did you see Major League?
Fuck you, Jobu…
[quote name=Aisle424]Who’s the clean-up hitter? LaHair? I assume Castro is 3rd.[/quote]Thoughts of the batting order genuinely made me laugh.
By the way, is that “C-Suck” available on a T-shirt or was it from somewhere else?
I assume that Ricketts is paring payroll down for a few years to pay for improvements on or around Wrigley or just pocketing it until they feel ready to dip into the FA market.
While 2012 is going to suck at least they have a good chance at a top 3 draft pick while hopefully grooming some of the prospects I assume they will be obtaining by trading off the team.
[quote name=Aisle424]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuWQfMGjZF4[/quote]Even The Janitor from Scrubs thinks the Cubs will lose.
Personally, I’m clinging to the hope that they exceed expectations. And that the Cardinals, Brewers, and Red completely drop the ball. It’s happened before. They could slip in as the worst division leader.
[quote name=JMan]I assume that Ricketts is paring payroll down for a few years to pay for improvements on or around Wrigley or just pocketing it until they feel ready to dip into the FA market.
While 2012 is going to suck at least they have a good chance at a top 3 draft pick while hopefully grooming some of the prospects I assume they will be obtaining by trading off the team.[/quote]
The problem is that, after Garza, nothing left on the team will bring anything of consequence into the system. This isn’t like when the 1997 Marlins got broken up.
I’ll be interested to know where the money is going. They have stated over and over that the budget for baseball operations would be about the same as last year. They didn’t break it down into how much would be on the major league payroll vs. minor league development, but now they are restricted in how much they can pay in the draft.
[quote name=Aisle424]The problem is that, after Garza, nothing left on the team will bring anything of consequence into the system. This isn’t like when the 1997 Marlins got broken up.
I’ll be interested to know where the money is going. They have stated over and over that the budget for baseball operations would be about the same as last year. They didn’t break it down into how much would be on the major league payroll vs. minor league development, but now they are restricted in how much they can pay in the draft.[/quote]Well, they did pay $20 mil for an unlimited supply of Big Macs
1. DeJesus
2. Barney ?
3. Castro
4. LaHair
5. Soto
6. Byrd
7. Soriano
8. Stewart?
pretty rough stuff
Soto could bring back a few prospects. Byrd might find you a project arm
[quote name=Aisle424]The problem is that, after Garza, nothing left on the team will bring anything of consequence into the system. This isn’t like when the 1997 Marlins got broken up.
I’ll be interested to know where the money is going. They have stated over and over that the budget for baseball operations would be about the same as last year. They didn’t break it down into how much would be on the major league payroll vs. minor league development, but now they are restricted in how much they can pay in the draft.[/quote]I think Byrd and Marmol could bring a decent return. But Garza is really the only one that can bring impact players in return. Well Castro could but I highly doubt he’s traded.
I’m curious where the money is going as well but I’d rather they not give Fielder, others a big contract just because they have money to spend.
I’m cautiously optimistic about the draft. It’s not like this is the end of good players being taken in the draft, it just means you have to draft smarter. Maybe the Cubs lose some edge, but they still can add impact players.
One thing I’m wondering: when is the last time the Cubs had a legitimately good defensive team? Nothing’s coming to mind.
Byrd, Marmol, Soto and Garza could bring something back.
I can’t believe the minor leaguers involved in the trade aren’t known yet. Just seems weird.
[quote name=dylanj]Byrd, Marmol, Soto and Garza could bring something back.[/quote]
[quote name=JMan]I can’t believe the minor leaguers involved in the trade aren’t known yet. Just seems weird.[/quote]
They were known two months ago so we should find out soon.
Finally got you a Christmas present, RC.
http://www.banterist.com/archivefiles/000305.html
[quote name=AndCounting]One thing I’m wondering: when is the last time the Cubs had a legitimately good defensive team? Nothing’s coming to mind.[/quote]By Total Zone, the 1996 Cubs were the best defensive team the Cubs have ever fielded with no close second. There were no below-average defenders on that team. Sammy Sosa had the highest single season TZ rating of any Cub ever, saving 27 runs. (dying laughing)
Marmol won’t get much of anything back, I’m afraid. He’s quite expensive, and his control issues that prevent him from being an elite reliever. I don’t think 1 year of Byrd is worth much, either.
The Cubs led the league in defensive efficiency rating in 2008. They also lead the league in runs scored (by a lot) and ERA+.
[quote name=ACT]Marmol won’t get much of anything back, I’m afraid. He’s quite expensive, and his control issues that prevent him from being an elite reliever. I don’t think 1 year of Byrd is worth much, either.[/quote]While Marmol’s value definitely dropped, it seems like the market for relievers, elite or otherwise, is seriously overinflated. I don’t know how many buyers remain, but I would expect a Marmol trade to bring back more than the Cubs would lose.
ranked by trade value in regards to return
Realistic Candidates
Garza
Marshall
Soto
Marmol
Byrd
Wells
Baker
LaHair
Dewitt
Samarzidjahikla
Soriano
Z
how close is this?
This team is going to be awful. Without the Astros, they could easily finish last in the division.
[quote name=AndCounting]Thoughts of the batting order genuinely made me laugh.[/quote](dying laughing) I didn’t even want to contemplate the batting order.
[quote name=dylanj]1. DeJesus
2. Barney ?
3. Castro
4. LaHair
5. Soto
6. Byrd
7. Soriano
8. Stewart?
pretty rough stuff[/quote]Starting pitchers won’t get any sleep the night before they face this lineup.
If I had to guess the lineup, I’d go Barney, DeJesus, Castro, Soto, LaHair, Byrd, Soriano and Stewart
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) I didn’t even want to contemplate the batting order.[/quote]
you got a nice little tip of the hat in the fangraphs write up about ReJo.
[quote name=ACT]Marmol won’t get much of anything back, I’m afraid. He’s quite expensive, and his control issues that prevent him from being an elite reliever. I don’t think 1 year of Byrd is worth much, either.[/quote]Yeah, exactly, Marmol’s due almost $17 million over the next 2 years. That’s probably a bit more than he’s worth. If some team thinks they can turn him into a 3-WAR pitcher then maybe there’s something in return, but not as he is. Wouldn’t even surprise me if the Cubs had to throw in some money to get rid of him.
[quote name=mb21]Starting pitchers won’t get any sleep the night before they face this lineup.
If I had to guess the lineup, I’d go Barney, DeJesus, Castro, Soto, LaHair, Byrd, Soriano and Stewart[/quote]From what I’ve heard, I think DeJesus is penciled in in the leadoff position. I suspect that Castro is 2nd.
I would personally prefer to platoon Johnson and DeJesus. I’d probably try to platoon at 2nd and 3rd as well.
barney & stewart are the biggest black holes I see there. Would really really love to get a real 2B back if we trade Garza. Not sure who has many cant miss 2B prospects though
[quote name=mb21]Starting pitchers won’t get any sleep the night before they face this lineup.
[/quote]
So the Cubs are going for the insomnia via chronic laughter approach?
Bright side: I don’t know if the Cubs’ hitters can be any worse than the Giants or Mariners last year.
[quote name=Snyds01]ranked by trade value in regards to return
Realistic Candidates
Garza
Marshall
Soto
Marmol
Byrd
Wells
Baker
LaHair
Dewitt
Samarzidjahikla
Soriano
Z
how close is this?[/quote]I’d go with something like this:
Garza
Marshall
Soto
Byrd
Maybe you could get something decent if you kicked in some money for Marmol and Dempster.
[quote name=mb21]I’d go with something like this:
Garza
Marshall
Soto
Byrd
Maybe you could get something decent if you kicked in some money for Marmol and Dempster.[/quote]
Im not even thinking decent, I was just looking at who brings back the most…I am fully aware that the likes of Shark, DeWitt etc, are not going to bring back even a prospect…but what they bring back is better than the guy below them, whatever it is.
[quote name=mb21]I’d go with something like this:
Garza
Marshall
Soto
Byrd
Maybe you could get something decent if you kicked in some money for Marmol and Dempster.[/quote]
and I agree on Dempster, but I dont think he agrees to be traded, so no reason to include him.
Man, been a long time since I visited a cubs blog. Hows it goin guys?
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_National_1221513.pdf
What I got out of it:
Women are Not Sure
Republicans/Conservatives love Tebow
African-Americans love Vick
Hispanics hate the Cowboys
[quote name=Suburban kid]Finally got you a Christmas present, RC.
http://www.banterist.com/archivefiles/000305.html/quoteI love those perky dots.
[quote name=WaLi]HIspanics hate the Cowboys[/quote]
If you mean Mexicans, you couldn’t me more wrong. They LOVE the Cowboys.
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]If you mean Mexicans, you couldn’t me more wrong. They LOVE the Cowboys.[/quote]False. According to the PPP of the 8% hispanics out of 700 total people polled, 51% of them are “unfavorable” to the Cowbows and only 16% are favorable. This is only off +/- 3%.
Stats don’t lie, your eye test has failed you! They must just be trying to blend in, but when voting secretly the truth comes out.
[quote name=WaLi]False. According to the PPP of the 8% hispanics out of 700 total people polled, 51% of them are “unfavorable” to the Cowbows and only 16% are favorable. This is only off +/- 3%.
Stats don’t lie, your eye test has failed you! They must just be trying to blend in, but when voting secretly the truth comes out.[/quote]
Trust me. All the Mexicans in the world live in Texas, and they all wear Cowboys merchandise.
Since this is a baseball blog.
[quote name=Rice Cube]
Since this is a baseball blog.[/quote]
It is?
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]It is?[/quote]Unless it is a misting station.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Unless it is a misting station.[/quote]Is that like a misting station?
[quote name=theantigoat]Man, been a long time since I visited a cubs blog. Hows it goin guys?[/quote]
This is the year!!!
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) I didn’t even want to contemplate the batting order.[/quote]
In a bold new strategy, the entire Cubs lineup will bat 7th.
[quote name=Aisle424]In a bold new strategy, the entire Cubs lineup will bat 7th.[/quote](dying laughing)
Gio Gonzales ——> Natinals
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]Gio Gonzales ——> Natinals[/quote]Ooooh, what’d the A’s get?
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ooooh, what’d the A’s get?[/quote]http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/nationals-to-acquire-gio-gonzalez.html
[quote name=mb21]Starting pitchers won’t get any sleep the night before they face this lineup.
If I had to guess the lineup, I’d go Barney, DeJesus, Castro, Soto, LaHair, Byrd, Soriano and Martha Stewart[/quote]
How I read this.
Martha Stewart would bat at least sixth in this lineup.
GW ———> Ph.D.
[quote name=GW]GW ———> Ph.D.[/quote]
[quote name=GW]GW ———> Ph.D.[/quote]
If the Cubs are really rebuilding why not trade B. Jackson and the like for quantity. Numerous prospects to restock the system.
[quote name=GW]GW ———> Ph.D.[/quote]Congratulations! Got a postdoc lined up?
Prince ——> Mariners
(per Richard Roeper’s twitter (dying laughing))
[quote name=Rice Cube]Congratulations! Got a postdoc lined up?[/quote]
thanks! not yet. i’m going to try for an industry position first.
[quote name=GW]thanks! not yet. i’m going to try for an industry position first.[/quote]I think you might have chosen wisely. I’m a bit jaded by academia though (dying laughing) Good luck.
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]Prince ——> Mariners
(per Richard Roeper’s twitter (dying laughing))[/quote]Projected triple crown line: .300, 35 HR, 60 RBI
[quote name=GW]GW ———> Ph.D.[/quote]
2883 ———–> ABD…
Hopefully will finish… Hopefully…
Congrats though. I’m looking Industry too although if I really like teaching, I may go academia.
Haven’t been around here in a while, but I just checked out this post…. HOLY SHIT is this team gonna blow. I honestly could see us finishing behind the Astros.
[quote name=GW]thanks! not yet. i’m going to try for an industry position first.[/quote]Obstructed View is still trying to hire my replacement. I can put in a good word for you.
Congrats!
What is it with this motherfucking website and Ph.Ds?
Also, what is it with the last couple of days bringing back about five old ACB posters?
[quote name=mb21]Obstructed View is still trying to hire my replacement. I can put in a good word for you.
Congrats![/quote]
Not sure if I meet the qualifications.
[quote name=Suburban kid]What is it with this motherfucking website and Ph.Ds?[/quote]I don’t know. Intelligent people bring other intelligent people to discuss shit? That doesn’t explain how it got started since Adam, Tim and myself are dumber than shit.
[quote name=GW]Not sure if I meet the qualifications.[/quote]You can always fib on the application.
[quote name=mb21]I don’t know. Intelligent people bring other intelligent people to discuss shit? That doesn’t explain how it got started since Adam, Tim and myself are dumber than shit.[/quote]We’ll credit it all to Berselius then.
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/does-carlos-marmol-have-any-trade-value.html