The four of us talked about what’s gone on so far this season on Tuesday night and you can’t even tell which of us wasn’t there.
[berselius] : We could also talk about Cashner
[AndCounting] : The only thing I can think of is if we have any changes in expectations/projections. But I don’t. (dying laughing)
[mb21] : Cashner/Coleman?
[berselius] : yeah
[mb21] : What are you thoughts on Garza so far?
[Aisle424] : I keep waiting to see the guy that was supposed to dramatically improve our pitching staff.
[berselius] : BABIP BABIP BABIP
[AndCounting] : He’s completely not the pitcher I expected.
[berselius] : Given how strange his overall numbers are I don’t really know what to say
[AndCounting] : Obviously no one thought he’d strike out this many guys.
[Aisle424] : I didn’t think he’d get shelled like this whenever anyone does hit the ball.
[berselius] : I’m not too surprised by the strikeouts
[mb21] : His K/BB numbers are promising, but those too will revert toward his career average.
You’re not surprised by a Marmol-esque strikeout rate from someone who struckout about 7.5 in his career?
[Aisle424] : He DID go from the AL East to the NL Central, MB.
[AndCounting] : It appears Riggins is having a big influence on him. And maybe he’s still working on adjustments in his approach on the mound.
[mb21] : I think if there’s anything that’s good that has come of Garza’s struggles it’s that the expectations for him
have been brought back to earth.
[berselius] : Was that tongue and cheek? I thought Garza was complaining about Riggins
[Aisle424] : With his peripherals, I figure his results will start to come around. Even if he doesn’t keep his FIP in the ones, it should get better
[mb21] : I was looking over his pitch selection and I think AC is right. He’s a completely different pitcher this season
and it’s not worked well so far.
[AndCounting] : Yeah, I think he is complaining. But I don’t think he would be unless he was actually doing what Riggins suggested.
[mb21] : I’m looking for his pitch selection on Texas Leaguers right now.
[berselius] : I keep throwing out the bad small sample size stuff (LD rate) while focusing on the good (K rate)
[AndCounting] : I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. I’m curious to see how his next three or four or ten starts go.
[Aisle424] : I’ve never liked him, so I can’t as easily give him the benefit of the doubt, but I’m still hopeful he resembles the guy we were promised.
[berselius] : Of course a lot of those strikeouts were against Pittsburgh
[mb21] : Garza’s pitch selection last year
[AndCounting] : I saw Harry Pavlidis post something that Zambrano didn’t give up a single line drive in his start last night.
Yielded a .181 slugging pct. on balls in play. Great game.
[mb21] : And so far this year
[berselius] : If Z cared, he could have yielded a .161 SLG. *shakes head*
[Aisle424] : And where was the offense he is supposed to bring? (dying laughing)
[mb21] : That was vintage Zambrano last night. He’s so much fun to watch.
[mb21] : What’s Cashner’s role when he returns to the team?
[berselius] : I hope it’s not the pen
[AndCounting] : I smell a bullpen test. Or trial.
[berselius] : But given what the back end of the pen has done that might be it.
[berselius] : I wishcast that they’ll send him back to AAA to knock the rust off. Not pitching for a month will require some bounceback anyway
[Aisle424] : I’d agree, but in 4 weeks the Cubs may be in crisis mode. The Cubs’s schedule gets bad in about 2 weeks.
[AndCounting] : Especially since Wells will be back before Cashner is. If Coleman proves he can start,
they’ll probably take it pretty easy with him.
[mb21] : I think Coleman is more than capable of proving he remains in the rotation and I doubt they want to take him out at that point.
[Aisle424] : I’d be perfectly fine with Cashner going back to AAA where they can build him back up to starter endurance without the pressure of
trying to force this team into unlikely contention whle Coleman keeps the 5th spot.
[mb21] : If the Cubs were ever serious with the Wells to AAA nonsense, then it’s possible we may see a contest between
Wells and Cashner for that final spot in the rotation. I doubt that though.
[AndCounting] : I have no idea what his numbers have been, but my eye test tells me Coleman has been really impressive.
Maybe because my expectations for him are so low.
[berselius] : (dying laughing) , That would be truly Cubsian
[mb21] : Coleman has been impressive. Probably not as impressive as his ERA has been in his career, but he’s a good pitcher.
[berselius] : Honestly the fact that James Russell is in the rotation right now makes me feel like Cashner would be kept as a SP for depth reasons
[mb21] : What happened to the Cubs SP depth?
[berselius] : Just bad luck. Silva never really was “depth”, and three guys got injured at the same time
[AndCounting] : Gorzelanny . . . I miss him. None of this would have happened if we still had Gorz. (dying laughing)
[mb21] : More than 3. Jay Jackson went down, Thomas Diamond did too, didn’t he?
[AndCounting] : And McNutt, right?
[Aisle424] : I hadn’t heard about Diamond, but Jackson and McNutt were both down. I don’t know what Jackson’s deal is, but McNutt has blisters.
[mb21] : I’m guessing if McNutt had a few good starts to begin the season he’d be getting the next start after this one by Russell,
but that’s not happening now.
[berselius] : I don’t know if they’d want to start that service clock so soon. I doubt he’s on the 40 man either.
[berselius] : Who did I miss? my 3 were Jackson, Wells, and Cashner. I didn’t think McNutt was included on the depth chart
[mb21] : Before they acquired Garza the Cubs had Zambrano, Dempster, Wells, Cashner, Gorzelanny, Silva, Jay Jackson, Thomas Diamond,
Casey Coleman, Chris Archer and Trey McNutt.
[mb21] : McNutt isn’t on the 40-man, but they have 2 spots open.
[Aisle424] : They’re having a hard time replacing Sam Fuld on the 40-man roster (dying laughing)
[berselius] : All of you are forgetting the Legend of David Patton (dying laughing)
[Aisle424] : *head desk*
[mb21] : Considering they called Castro up so soon last year, I don’t think service time would have been a concern with McNutt.
[berselius] : Yeah, but Castro was being called up to stay, and pretty much forced his way onto the roster.
Comments
Your conversational partner has disconnected.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
I hope to see this comment in response within 24 hours:
.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Not banned from BCB! Now talking about how I think God is dead.
MishQuote Reply
Al will say he is worng if you can think of examples in the last 5 years where two people of a starting rotation went on the DL at the same time. I already gave him Davis/Niemann from the Rays in ’10, any others?
MishQuote Reply
Mish, I would totally get on BCB and have your back if I haven’t already been banned 4 times. (dying laughing)
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Al will say he is worng if you can think of examples in the last 5 years where two people of a starting rotation went on the DL at the same time. I already gave him Davis/Niemann from the Rays in ’10, any others?[/quote]
Almost Greinke/Marcum this spring but Marcum was able to get over his shoulder discomfort or whatever he had.
I can’t think of anymore at the moment.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Al will say he is worng if you can think of examples in the last 5 years where two people of a starting rotation went on the DL at the same time. I already gave him Davis/Niemann from the Rays in ’10, any others?[/quote]
How about Yura/Faget?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Double dose of unedited Alvin comments![/quote]
Is someone editing their responses after Yellon posts? I’m surprised he hasn’t caught on (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Do you guys still have the Banned from BCB wall?
MuckerQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Harry twitter:
ROFL.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Is someone editing their responses after Yellon posts? I’m surprised he hasn’t caught on (dying laughing)[/quote]
All I’m going to say is that Alvin’s comments are pristine.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Do you guys still have the Banned from BCB wall?[/quote]
It needs an update, but I can redo it.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Ryno is editing them. I’ll gladly make fun of Al here, but we don’t have to make shit up to do it. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]It needs an update, but I can redo it.[/quote]If you do update it, add McRipper, John McMuffin and Fah Q Al to it. You can probably add my IP address to it to. (dying laughing)
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Ryno is editing them. I’ll gladly make fun of Al here, but we don’t have to make shit up to do it. (dying laughing)[/quote]
Since my integrity was blatantly attacked…
I never touched Alvin’s comments. Just the ones to which he was replying.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Go ahead and compile a list and I’ll throw something together.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Garza 2010:
Type Count Selection Velocity Vertical Horizontal Spin Angle Spin Rate
FF 2013 59.9% 93.4 10.95 -1.89 190 2,286
SL 469 14.0% 86.1 1.33 3.12 119 794
FT 394 11.7% 92.5 8.85 -6.45 216 2,223
CU 311 9.3% 75.9 -9.14 5.54 30 1,743
CH 172 5.1% 84.9 8.22 -4.98 209 1,807
Garza 2011:
Type Count Selection Velocity Vertical Horizontal Spin Angle Spin Rate
FF 145 32.9% 92.7 9.45 -3.23 199 2,023
SL 98 22.2% 87.3 3.32 2.25 144 811
FT 93 21.1% 93.0 9.20 -6.73 216 2,305
CU 53 12.0% 76.1 -8.23 3.41 24 1,469
CH 52 11.8% 85.0 7.32 -7.10 223 1,896
His 4 seam has gone down almost 30% and all his other pitch selection has gone up. His change up and 2 seam both doubled.
His in play % all went down, except for Changeup which went up 10% (to 25%) and has the highest % of in play pitches. I have no idea what any of this means though.
WaLi2Quote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Since my integrity was blatantly attacked…
I never touched Alvin’s comments. Just the ones to which he was replying.[/quote]
Thou art a genius.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Probably too early for it to mean anything, but that’s a significant drop in 4-seamers. Considering Garza made a comment about some changes he had made, I’m guessing it has to do with that.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Not banned from BCB! Now talking about how I think God is dead.[/quote]
Holy fuck, they really seem to hate Aramis over there these days.
LukasQuote Reply
[quote name=Lukas]Holy fuck, they really seem to hate Aramis over there these days.[/quote]
Why?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Why?[/quote]
From what I’m seeing. It’s because he’s not a leader, he’s lazy, and he didn’t want help from Jaramillo or some garbage like that.
LukasQuote Reply
.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Lukas]From what I’m seeing. It’s because he’s not a leader, he’s lazy, and he didn’t want help from Jaramillo or some garbage like that.[/quote]
Oh. And here I thought they actually had legitimate, well-thought-out reasons.
Last night Ramirez made a couple really nice defensive plays. I was impressed, I thought he’d lost a lot of his range but he still dives (gasp) and has a gun.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb].[/quote]
Al is the biggest vagina on the internet. The dude seriously can’t take a joke.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
But I’m going to respond anyway!
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Lukas]From what I’m seeing. It’s because he’s not a leader, he’s lazy, and he didn’t want help from Jaramillo or some garbage like that.[/quote]
But I thought the chemistry was awesome on this team! i guess that equates to something like -2 CHWAR
8volumesthickQuote Reply
Where are my wall names?!
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=8volumesthick]But I thought the chemistry was awesome on this team! i guess that equates to something like -2 CHWAR[/quote]
Oh man, this team would be off the charts with chemistry if lazy ass Ramirez would save face and go home.
Some guy on BCB actually said it’s foolish to thing Ramirez is/was ever a leader because he only came to the cubs convention once.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
LukasQuote Reply
Does Al run the SBNation Chicago site too? Because I’m banned on there as well. (dying laughing)
MuckerQuote Reply
It’s like looking into a mirror facing a mirror!
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Does Al run the SBNation Chicago site too? Because I’m banned on there as well. (dying laughing)[/quote]
Yeah, we found that loophole a few months ago.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Lukas]Oh man, this team would be off the charts with chemistry if lazy ass Ramirez would save face and go home.
Some guy on BCB actually said it’s foolish to thing Ramirez is/was ever a leader because he only came to the cubs convention once.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)[/quote]
I can’t decide yet if CHWAR should stand for chemistry wins above replacement or clubhouse wins above replacement
8volumesthickQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Where are my wall names?![/quote]
I don’t know if tizzle ever made the wall, but I was banned from BCB like 2 or more years ago (dying laughing)
LukasQuote Reply
[quote name=Lukas]I don’t know if tizzle ever made the wall, but I was banned from BCB like 2 or more years ago (dying laughing)[/quote]
You’re right there next to Gay Jesus now.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]You’re right there next to Gay Jesus now.[/quote]
faget point for you.
LukasQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Yeah, we found that loophole a few months ago.[/quote]What’s the loophole?
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Al will say he is worng if you can think of examples in the last 5 years where two people of a starting rotation went on the DL at the same time. I already gave him Davis/Niemann from the Rays in ’10, any others?[/quote]
Pretty much every Cubs starter not named Carlos Zambrano in 2006. And I think Zambrano and Dempster were on the DL at the same time in 2009. It may have been one of those and Harden.
PerkinsQuote Reply
The Cardinals were down to their 16th and 17th starting pitchers a few years back.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]What’s the loophole?[/quote]
That we weren’t banned on that site. He quickly changed that. He hasn’t been successful in banning us from Baseball Nation, though.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
I saw on some SB Nation site yesterday you could comment using Facebook.
mb21Quote Reply
.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb].[/quote]
But the team did allow the tickets to be sold to the scalpers who then knocked off the price…right?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Cubs in danger of not being in first anymore.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Braun ———> about to add another year or two to his contract with Milwaukee
BerseliusQuote Reply
braun got extended through 2020? Why?
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Braun ———> about to add another year or two to his contract with Milwaukee[/quote]
holy shit, 2020? That’s more than a year or two. WTF?
BerseliusQuote Reply
So essentially Braun is now in a 13 year deal with MIL
BerseliusQuote Reply
thats just fucking nuts.
dylanjQuote Reply
so they just paid to lock up his age 32-37 seasons.
dylanjQuote Reply
Uh, guys, Coleman has not been impressive at all.
He has a 6.24FIP this year and a 5.87FIP. On top of that, 4.12ERA for his career vs a 4.55FIP and 5.11xFIP.
He has been bad. Very bad in fact.
DoogolasQuote Reply
the cubs better hurry and extend Garza through 2030
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Uh, guys, Coleman has not been impressive at all.
He has a 6.24FIP this year and a 5.87FIP. On top of that, 4.12ERA for his career vs a 4.55FIP and 5.11xFIP.
He has been bad. Very bad in fact.[/quote]
I don’t think he’s been particularly impressive this year, but small sample sizes apply there. The point is that his 4.55 FIP (and projections nearish that) are just fine for the kind of back of the rotation guy that he is, and the Cubs might as well get that value out of him.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Uh, guys, Coleman has not been impressive at all.
He has a 6.24FIP this year and a 5.87FIP. On top of that, 4.12ERA for his career vs a 4.55FIP and 5.11xFIP.
He has been bad. Very bad in fact.[/quote]
Someone read the post?
Aisle424Quote Reply
I get that Braun is pretty good at sports, but locking up a player through his mid-30s 9 years in advance seems a bit foolish.
It also seems like they’re sure they won’t be able to re-sign Fielder.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Thanks for making me Hanks, JG.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]the cubs better hurry and extend Garza through 2030[/quote]
Garza was a response to the Greinke trade. The Cubs response here would be to extend Marlon Byrd for 5 more years (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Perkins]
It also seems like they’re sure they won’t be able to re-sign Fielder.[/quote]
I don’t think that was ever a question save for some 80’s style collusion.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Garza was a response to the Greinke trade. The Cubs response here would be to extend Alfonso Soriano for 5 more years (dying laughing)[/quote].
Aisle424Quote Reply
5/105 on those extra 5 years for Braun
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I don’t think that was ever a question save for some 80’s style collusion.[/quote]
You mean like what kept Bonds from finding gainful employment after 2007?
I agree on the Fielder thing; I’m just always interested in the moment things go from assumption to wheels in motion.
PerkinsQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I don’t think he’s been particularly impressive this year, but small sample sizes apply there. The point is that his 4.55 FIP (and projections nearish that) are just fine for the kind of back of the rotation guy that he is, and the Cubs might as well get that value out of him.[/quote]
The projection actually isn’t even close to there. It was 4.89 to start the year and the updated projection is 4.96.
Coleman has been and likely will continue to be an awful, awful pitcher. Neither he nor Russell should be anywhere near starting games for an MLB team.
[quote name=Aisle424]Someone read the post?[/quote]Ha.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Thanks for making me Hanks, JG.[/quote]
No problem. You’re less of a faget than Mish.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Ha.[/quote]
I think he’s too busy not walking.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
(dying laughing), my memory sucks. No wonder all the other blogs continually blast this one for being complete shit.
Still, I don’t mind Coleman as the 5th starter and leaving Cashner in AAA to mature. It’s what I wanted to start the season anyway.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), my memory sucks. No wonder all the other blogs continually blast this one for being complete shit.
Still, I don’t mind Coleman as the 5th starter and leaving Cashner in AAA to mature. It’s what I wanted to start the season anyway.[/quote]
What do you mean mature? If Cashner needs to have a couple rehab starts, I have no problem with it. But Coleman is legitimately a very bad pitcher and the sooner you can get him off the team, the more likely that team is to be successful.
Cashner should be brought up the second he is fully recovered from his injury and in baseball shape. He proved last year that he’s too talented for minor league hitters. There’s really no need for him to prove it again.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]What do you mean mature? If Cashner needs to have a couple rehab starts, I have no problem with it. But Coleman is legitimately a very bad pitcher and the sooner you can get him off the team, the more likely that team is to be successful.
Cashner should be brought up the second he is fully recovered from his injury and in baseball shape. He proved last year that he’s too talented for minor league hitters. There’s really no need for him to prove it again.[/quote]
I agree with this. Cashner has put up great numbers in the minors and deserves a shot at a regular pitching job with the Cubs. That being said, what’s better for Cashner… a #5 job with the Cubs or a full time role with a minor league affiliate?
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
I did a quick check of starters from last year that made the 5th most starts on each team and very crudely (weighted them all equally) came up with an average ERA,FIP, xFIP for the group of 4.66,4.53,4.33.
Coleman is worse than that, but not by a ton compared to most teams. And I think if I took the time to determine which player was the teams’ worst starter by something other than Games Started, the numbers would be even closer to Coleman’s.
So in a year when I don’t pretend the Cubs will contend, I am fine with Casey Coleman getting a chance to grow into becoming a useful major leaguer or prove that he isn’t while Cashner is stretched out slowly in AAA as he should have been last year. Cashner is worth protecting. Coleman can be tossed against the wall to see if he sticks. If he doesn’t then the Cubs won’t be fooled into thinking he is part of their pitching depth.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]I agree with this. Cashner has put up great numbers in the minors and deserves a shot at a regular pitching job with the Cubs. That being said, what’s better for Cashner… a #5 job with the Cubs or a full time role with a minor league affiliate?[/quote]
Probably a job with another organization.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Probably a job with another organization.[/quote]
Nice snark.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
Why must Cashner be stretched out slowly in AAA? There is no point in doing that. He can be stretched out just as well in the MLB, especially having missed a month or so and therefore about 5, 6 starts. Chances are now that he can go 27 starts and make it to between 150 and 160 innings without any need to skip him. Which is right where we’ll be stretching him to in the minors.
Cashner is 24 not 22. There is no reason to keep him in the minors another year. It’s pointless.
Also, I would argue a full half of a run is by enough that he shouldn’t be anywhere near this team’s rotation. A half run a crapload.
Seriously this:
4.66,4.53,4.33
vs
5.05, 4.89 to start the year and updated at:
4.98, 4.96.
That’s a ton. That’s not just barely not an average fifth starter, that’s “worst of the worst”.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Why must Cashner be stretched out slowly in AAA? There is no point in doing that. He can be stretched out just as well in the MLB, especially having missed a month or so and therefore about 5, 6 starts. Chances are now that he can go 27 starts and make it to between 150 and 160 innings without any need to skip him. Which is right where we’ll be stretching him to in the minors.
Cashner is 24 not 22. There is no reason to keep him in the minors another year. It’s pointless.
Also, I would argue a full half of a run is by enough that he shouldn’t be anywhere near this team’s rotation. A half run a crapload.[/quote]
I don’t trust Quade to not get pressured into winning games by over-extending an arm that spent half of last year in the bullpen.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Stupid Brewers. I want to take a longer look at the Braun extension but have too much shit to do (dying laughing).
BerseliusQuote Reply
Doogolas, I think I would agree with you more if I was concerned in the slightest about the record this team winds up with. I’m not. I’m concerned about the players that will (hopefully) be part of future teams that might actually stand a chance.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I don’t trust Quade to not get pressured into winning games by over-extending an arm that spent half of last year in the bullpen.[/quote]
Or for Cubs fans to Felix Pie him after he struggles in back to back starts.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I don’t trust Quade to not get pressured into winning games by over-extending an arm that spent half of last year in the bullpen.[/quote]He really can’t stretch Cashner that much. Cashner will rack up quick pitch counts most games. That’s just something that will come with him.
Furthemore, unless Cashner is going to be a Cy Young candidate or pitch like Wood his rookie year or Prior his early years, there’s nothing to worry about. There will likely be games Cashner goes 3IP and then some where he goes 7IP. But the guy isn’t going to be dominant enough most of the time to really worry about needing to trust Quade.
DoogolasQuote Reply
We already have a good yardstick and that’s replacement level. It’s a 5.35 FIP for NL starters.
BerseliusQuote Reply
KG
Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs (Double-A Tennessee): 3-for-4, 2B, 3B, HR (2), R, 3 RBI, BB, K. Lining himself up for a move to Triple-A at some point in the season and maybe even Wrigley by September; .417/.544/.721 in 13 games.
Jae-Hoon Ha, OF, Cubs (High-A Daytona): 2-for-5, 2B, R, RBI. Multi-hit effort actually drops his batting average to .414; still zero walks in 58 at-bats.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Or for Cubs fans to Felix Pie him after he struggles in back to back starts.[/quote]
This is just ridiculous. This is going to happen now or next year or in two years. Eventually fans will either love him or hate him way quicker than they should, but it won’t make one bit of difference if that is this year or next.
[quote name=Aisle424]Doogolas, I think I would agree with you more if I was concerned in the slightest about the record this team winds up with. I’m not. I’m concerned about the players that will (hopefully) be part of future teams that might actually stand a chance.[/quote]I don’t care about this team’s record either. But I do want to actually be entertained by my favorite team.
Honestly, by the end of the year I’d love to see B-Jax, J-Jax, Vitters and Cashner all on this team and playing roles as SP or starting position players (Vitters likely at 1B if Pena keeps struggling and he keeps raking).
I want something to actually look forward to watching. The young guys are that thing. I don’t think this team is going to contend. But I want to watch the young talented guys play, not the young worthless ones.
DoogolasQuote Reply
berselius out, fuckfaces!
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]We already have a good yardstick and that’s replacement level. It’s a 5.35 FIP for NL starters.[/quote]
I didn’t say he was replacement. But he’s actually closer to replacement than he is “average 5th starter”.
DoogolasQuote Reply
I just thought of something. What if Alvin isn’t as big of a retard as he seems? What if he’s reading a site every day and mocking it on BCB like we do to him? What if people are reading our site, like Dick Cheese, assuming all the Alvin memes we use are legitimate content we created and mocking us on their blog?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]I just thought of something. What if Alvin isn’t as big of a retard as he seems? What if he’s reading a site every day and mocking it on BCB like we do to him? What if people are reading our site, like Dick Cheese, assuming all the Alvin memes we use are legitimate content we created and mocking us on their blog?[/quote]Wait, are you saying we’re the Others?
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]Wait, are you saying we’re the Others?[/quote]
Yeah. Alvin’s target is the orginal settlers. Alvin is dharma. We’re the others. What plane will crash and liberate us?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
This one?
DoogolasQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/21/that-richie-whitt-guy-isnt-backing-off-his-stance-on-colby-lewis-witnessing-the-birth-of-his-child
MishQuote Reply
Wow, two-hit shutout for Lohse.
PerkinsQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/21/that-richie-whitt-guy-isnt-backing-off-his-stance-on-colby-lewis-witnessing-the-birth-of-his-child[/quote]
Admirable that he sticks to his convictions. Amusing, but wrong.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Yeah. Alvin’s target is the orginal settlers. Alvin is dharma. We’re the others. What plane will crash and liberate us?[/quote]Does it really matter? The point is that we learn how to love each other, so we can all end up together in the finale.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Kind of an interesting article on Luke Scott. Not sure how I feel about him, other than that I am 100% convinced he is a bit of an idiot.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/otl/news/story?id=6395744
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply
Kyle Lohse has been great this year. Looking like the guy who won 16 for the cards a few years ago
fight2winQuote Reply
Here are Casey Coleman’s 2011 projections:
Player PROJECTION ERA FIP
Casey Coleman Marcel 3.92 3.94
Casey Coleman Bill James 4.11 4.19
Casey Coleman Fans 4.42 4.22
Casey Coleman CBS 4.11 4.25
Casey Coleman RotoChamp 5.05 4.26
Casey Coleman Guru 4.35 4.36
Casey Coleman Oliver 4.28 4.40
Casey Coleman CAIRO 4.59 4.60
Casey Coleman PECOTA 5.21 5.13
Casey Coleman ZiPS 4.98 5.15
Casey Coleman Average 4.50 4.45
4.3 FIP is around league average. 5.3 is about replacement level for a starter.
Andrew Cashner’s
Player PROJECTION ERA FIP
Andrew Cashner Oliver 3.94 4.04
Andrew Cashner ZiPS 3.84 4.11
Andrew Cashner Marcel 4.24 4.25
Andrew Cashner Fans 4.06 4.44
Andrew Cashner CAIRO 4.44 4.47
Andrew Cashner Guru 4.62 4.52
Andrew Cashner PECOTA 4.75 4.71
Andrew Cashner CBS 4.81 4.94
Andrew Cashner RotoChamp 4.43 5.04
Andrew Cashner Average 4.35 4.50
I stand by what I said. And in 67 innings those projections nearly match Coleman’s career numbers. Here are the FIPs he posted in the minor leagues: 4.25, 2.73, 3.6, 4.04, 4.25
So yeah, 4.4ish is more than reasonable since it would be slightly worse than what he did in the minors.
I’m not saying I think Coleman should start. I’m saying I think he ends up being the starter and that’s not a big deal. He makes league minimum is only slightly worse than league average.
mb21Quote Reply
I’ve probably been the biggest fan of Andrew Cashner around. He’s put up some pretty nice numbers, but as GW has mentioned on several occasions, if you look at his peripherals, they’re not that good. He’s probably going to strikeout around 7 per 9 and walk 4 per 9. Not bad, but not top of the rotation either. I think he’s better than Coleman and he definitely has a higher ceiling than Coleman.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]I don’t care about this team’s record either. But I do want to actually be entertained by my favorite team.
Honestly, by the end of the year I’d love to see B-Jax, J-Jax, Vitters and Cashner all on this team and playing roles as SP or starting position players (Vitters likely at 1B if Pena keeps struggling and he keeps raking).
I want something to actually look forward to watching. The young guys are that thing. I don’t think this team is going to contend. But I want to watch the young talented guys play, not the young worthless ones.[/quote]You’re being a little hard on Coleman because of one bad start this season. He’s had a very solid minor league career (above average), was above average last year while Andrew Cashner was replacement level as a reliever. If small samples are going to be evaluated and used to determine who starts in that spot, it’s Casey Coleman and it’s not even close. Cashner’s career FIP at the big league level in nearly the same number of innings as Coleman is 5.05 and all but 5 of those innings were as a reliever where the replacement level FIP is about 4.4. He’s been worse than replacement level throughout his career so far. On the other hand, Coleman has been worth .6 WAR in his career. That’s 1 WAR more than Andrew Cashner in the same number of innings pitched.
We can’t cherry pick the stats. So far, Coleman has been better by a lot. In the future it’s very likely Cashner will be better, but it’s not like Coleman is an awful pitcher or anything. I don’t know why that’s being said about him.
mb21Quote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/21/bud-selig-is-not-going-to-take-barry-bonds-out-of-the-record-book/
Barry Bonds is still the career home run leader.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
In other Bud Selig news, he doesn’t think the Wrigley attendance drop is an issue (bad weather) and will likely expand the playoffs to 10 teams in 2012.
The latter one makes me shake my head more.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I don’t know how he can say the attendance drop isn’t really an issue: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/current_attendance.shtml
Only 3 teams have seen a larger drop in attendance this season than the Cubs: Rays, M’s and Dodgers. Certainly the weather has been a factor, but it’s not the only factor. The fact the Cubs have been so close to 1st place and it’s dropped this much is interesting to the say the least.
mb21Quote Reply
My only quibble with those projections MB listed above is that I’m not sure if all of them projected him as a starter (or at least, solely a starter).
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]In other Bud Selig news, he doesn’t think the Wrigley attendance drop is an issue (bad weather) and will likely expand the playoffs to 10 teams in 2012.
The latter one makes me shake my head more.[/quote]
Have they had more details on the 10-team expansion? If it’s something like some sort of mini-playoff by WC teams I like it.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t know how he can say the attendance drop isn’t really an issue: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/current_attendance.shtml
Only 3 teams have seen a larger drop in attendance this season than the Cubs: Rays, M’s and Dodgers. Certainly the weather has been a factor, but it’s not the only factor. The fact the Cubs have been so close to 1st place and it’s dropped this much is interesting to the say the least.[/quote]
I think that even the most optimistic “this is the year” cubs fan realizes that this team doesnt stand a chance. Even with the return of fan favorite Kerry Wood and the emergence of Starlin Castro- Cub fans recognize this as a bad ball club.
fight2winQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Have they had more details on the 10-team expansion? If it’s something like some sort of mini-playoff by WC teams I like it.[/quote]
Fine line to walk in terms of what to do. Baseball doesn’t seem like a good sport for a single sudden-death game, especially if it’s possible the 4th and 5th teams are noticeably larger apart in record (say an 89 win team has to play an 83 win team?). You also probably don’t want to have a full 5 game series as that would mean the division winners would get almost a week off, after a season where they are usually playing everyday (I like my playoffs to resemble the regular season as closely as possible, in all sports).
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]My only quibble with those projections MB listed above is that I’m not sure if all of them projected him as a starter (or at least, solely a starter).[/quote]The ones for Cashner? I’m guessing it’s part relief and part starting. For Coleman it’s exclusively as a starter. He only made 4 relief appearances last year. If anything, this favors Coleman even more. The numbers for Cashner are basically what he’d do as a reliever. He didn’t make but 10 starts last season in the minor leagues so all of the recent and important information that went into his projection were work done as a reliever. For Coleman it’s the exact opposite.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]You’re being a little hard on Coleman because of one bad start this season. He’s had a very solid minor league career (above average), was above average last year while Andrew Cashner was replacement level as a reliever. If small samples are going to be evaluated and used to determine who starts in that spot, it’s Casey Coleman and it’s not even close. Cashner’s career FIP at the big league level in nearly the same number of innings as Coleman is 5.05 and all but 5 of those innings were as a reliever where the replacement level FIP is about 4.4. He’s been worse than replacement level throughout his career so far. On the other hand, Coleman has been worth .6 WAR in his career. That’s 1 WAR more than Andrew Cashner in the same number of innings pitched.
We can’t cherry pick the stats. So far, Coleman has been better by a lot. In the future it’s very likely Cashner will be better, but it’s not like Coleman is an awful pitcher or anything. I don’t know why that’s being said about him.[/quote]
What? Coleman has not been better by a lot. Literally two bad outings are responsible for Cashner’s “bad” year last year. Two outings where shit just hit the fan completely. Without them he was actually very, very, very, very good.
We can’t cherry pick stats, but this literally has nothing to do with Coleman’s start. I hated him last year, I hate him this year. There is nothing about him that is good. He walks as many as Cashner does and will strike out way less while getting less balls on the ground.
He’s a far, far worse pitcher than Andrew Cashner. Cashner also had a solid 4.26xFIP last year to Coleman’s very ugly 4.97.
Both of those are probably nearer their talents than their respective FIP’s last year. Coleman doesn’t have anything special about him that would lead one to believe he can keep guys from hitting HR’s off of him, he’s not Marmol almost nobody is.
On top of that, Cashner’s BB and K numbers got better and better. Every year in his three years in the minors his K% went up and his BB% went down. There is no reason to believe he can’t get something like 8.5K/9 and 3.5BB/9.
Coleman meanwhile is a cheap Carlos Silva with less groundballs. There is literally nothing special about Coleman, there are special qualities to Andrew Cashner.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=fight2win]I think that even the most optimistic “this is the year” cubs fan realizes that this team doesnt stand a chance. Even with the return of fan favorite Kerry Wood and the emergence of Starlin Castro- Cub fans recognize this as a bad ball club.[/quote]Agreed, which is why the Cubs Convention took so long to sell out (or never did) and why Yankees tickets were on the market much longer than expected. It’s also partly why attendance has been down this year despite the team not sucking so far. Cubs fans just don’t have high expectations for this team and they’re letting the team know by not spending money on them.
mb21Quote Reply
So now you just publish your Gay Sex Chat Room transcripts as actual posts? No wonder everyone blasts this blog for being complete shit.
melissaQuote Reply
Doog, you can’t say 2 bad outings made Cashner’s season last year and then ignore the quality season by Coleman and focus only on one bad start this year.
I’m just telling you what they’ve done so far and what they’re projected to do. Coleman has been a lot better in terms of actual production (not even remotely close when you consider how much easier relieving is than starting is–about .8 to 1 run per 9 innings easier) and he has a slightly better projection.
I’ll take that information over siding with one horrible start this year. Not to mention that his numbers were only what they were last year because of his first appearance in the big leagues (6 runs in 2.1 innings).
I’ve already said I think Cashner has the higher ceiling, but if a decision is made based on who has actually been a better pitcher, it’s an easy one.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=melissa]So now you just publish your Gay Sex Chat Room transcripts as actual posts? No wonder everyone blasts this blog for being complete shit.[/quote]I blame Tim.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I blame Tim.[/quote]
Me too.
melissaQuote Reply
Concerning Garza’s changeup getting hammered this season, is it possible he’s tipping his pitches somehow? I wouldn’t expect the Cubs to realize it if he were. I would also add that he was complaining that Riggins didn’t want him using his hard stuff as much as he has in the past and he’s not comfortable with it. I really don’t think he’ll be successful if he’s not confident in what he’s throwing.
melissaQuote Reply
If we’re cherry picking stats, we take away Coleman’s first two appearances last year where he threw 5.1 innings and allowed 8 runs and a million hits. The next 50+ innings he had a 3.28 ERA.
We can’t cherry pick the stats though. They are what they are. Those bad appearances happened for Coleman just as they did for Cashner. The biggest difference between the two is the role in which they accomplished their numbers. It’s why Coleman was a win more valuable in the same amount of playing time.
mb21Quote Reply
Coleman has value. Not a ton and hes not going to develop into an ace, but a back of the rotation inning eater making the league minimum is a valued commodity on this team as it would be on any other. Jason Marquis, Carlos Silva, Jake Westbrook, Aaron Cook are just some examples of a low strikeout back of the rotation type that i believe Casey Coleman could be. With that said, Casey would have to limit his walks better than he has.
If nothing else, he ensures we dont have to see 30 starts by Ramon Ortiz or Doug Davis.
fight2winQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Doog, you can’t say 2 bad outings made Cashner’s season last year and then ignore the quality season by Coleman and focus only on one bad start this year.
I’m just telling you what they’ve done so far and what they’re projected to do. Coleman has been a lot better in terms of actual production (not even remotely close when you consider how much easier relieving is than starting is–about .8 to 1 run per 9 innings easier) and he has a slightly better projection.
I’ll take that information over siding with one horrible start this year. Not to mention that his numbers were only what they were last year because of his first appearance in the big leagues (6 runs in 2.1 innings).
I’ve already said I think Cashner has the higher ceiling, but if a decision is made based on who has actually been a better pitcher, it’s an easy one.[/quote]
Coleman did not have a quality season though. He had a very flukey season. He had a HR/FB of 4.5%, that will normalize, he is far, far, far closer to the guy his xFIP indicates than the guy his FIP or ERA might lead someone to believe.
It’s also not about his start this year. He was very bad last year, I’m not just basing it off anything he’s done this year. There is nothing about Coleman that is impressive at all. Not his year last year and not his start this year. He had a flukey low HR/FB rate last year. Cashner had a flukey high HR/FB rate last year on top of having two bad outings back to back that completely destroyed his numbers.
In terms of talent and what they showed last year, all Coleman did was get lucky enough to prolong his ability to make a major league team’s roster instead of just outright sucking to the point where teams know he is absolutely nothing but a sixth starting pitcher.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]Me too.[/quote]
Me too. I’d fire myself, but I think I already have, so I’ll just not eat dinner for the 247th straight night.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]
Only 3 teams have seen a larger drop in attendance this season than the Cubs: Rays, M’s and Dodgers. Certainly the weather has been a factor, but it’s not the only factor. The fact the Cubs have been so close to 1st place and it’s dropped this much is interesting to the say the least.[/quote]
Most teams experienced a bigger drop in attendance last season due to the economy than the Cubs did. It’s possible “Year 1” had a slight impact. It’s also possible that Ricketts unimpressive off-season begging for public money combined with the highest ticket prices in the NL have kept people away. I think the attendance drop is a combination of disappointment in Ricketts, outrageous ticket prices, a sub-par team and awful weather to start the season. I will say that if they are in an actual pennant race and look to be contending in the summer the stands will be full again.
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]If we’re cherry picking stats, we take away Coleman’s first two appearances last year where he threw 5.1 innings and allowed 8 runs and a million hits. The next 50+ innings he had a 3.28 ERA.
We can’t cherry pick the stats though. They are what they are. Those bad appearances happened for Coleman just as they did for Cashner. The biggest difference between the two is the role in which they accomplished their numbers. It’s why Coleman was a win more valuable in the same amount of playing time.[/quote]
Taking away 1.1IP of back to back God awful outings isn’t nearly the same thing as taking away two full starts of complete horribleness. And I’m not just talking about ERA either.
Hell, taking away NOTHING, xFIP is a better indicator of what both are. Coleman’s xFIP last year was awful. His peripherals in terms of K/9 and BB/9 aren’t going to get much, if any, better and his HR/FB rate will normalize.
He’s not going to be a very good pitcher nor was he better than Cashner last year. You’re putting way too much stock into FIP and not nearly enough into xFIP and scouting. Coleman really doesn’t have much room to get better. He dosen’t have the stuff to start striking people out nor the control to be effective while being unable to strike people out.
He’s just not very good.
DoogolasQuote Reply
I really, really do not care about this discussion. It’s the back end of the rotation and we’re talking about two pitchers who aren’t very good. One of them was awful last year, but has some potential to be a number 2 or 3 starter. The other was good and his potential is probably as a number 4.
It’s not worth my time arguing over something as meaningless as those two.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=fight2win]Coleman has value. Not a ton and hes not going to develop into an ace, but a back of the rotation inning eater making the league minimum is a valued commodity on this team as it would be on any other. Jason Marquis, Carlos Silva, Jake Westbrook, Aaron Cook are just some examples of a low strikeout back of the rotation type that i believe Casey Coleman could be. With that said, Casey would have to limit his walks better than he has.
If nothing else, he ensures we dont have to see 30 starts by Ramon Ortiz or Doug Davis.[/quote]Agreed, though i actually like Doug Davis if he’s healthy. He’s annoying as hell to watch because he takes 30 minutes between pitches, but he’s actually a pretty good pitcher. But yeah, I agree. He’s a backend of the rotation pitcher, which just happens to be what spot they’re looking to fill.
mb21Quote Reply
WRONG. Saying Cashner was better than Coleman isn’t much different than saying John Grabow was better. It’s crazy.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Have they had more details on the 10-team expansion? If it’s something like some sort of mini-playoff by WC teams I like it.[/quote]
I don’t think they’ve hammered out the details yet. I agree that a one-game playoff is dumb (they essentially do that at the end of the season anyway as a tie-breaker for teams fighting for division or wild card) but a best-of-three that’s played on a weekend prior to the start of the playoffs might not be a bad thing.
I’m generally against expanding the playoffs though. It cheapens the regular season. I like the current 3+1 format in both leagues as it is although I think there should be realignments so that the AL East doesn’t get screwed out of a playoff team all the time.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]WRONG. Saying Cashner was better than Coleman isn’t much different than saying John Grabow was better. It’s crazy.[/quote]
No it isn’t. Cashner was better than Coleman was last year. Coleman was very, very lucky last year. That’s about it.
The same way that Soto was unlucky in 2009, Cashner was unlucky in 2010. Though not quite to such an extreme.
And just like Austin Jackson was lucky in 2010, so was Coleman. Austin Jackson was in fact a pretty awful player last year. But he was lucky enough that his performance didn’t indicate that he was.
It doesn’t mean he was better than someone who got unlucky.
DoogolasQuote Reply
I hate Doug Davis. Why not just bring back Steve Trachsel?
fight2winQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]Most teams experienced a bigger drop in attendance last season due to the economy than the Cubs did. It’s possible “Year 1” had a slight impact. It’s also possible that Ricketts unimpressive off-season begging for public money combined with the highest ticket prices in the NL have kept people away. I think the attendance drop is a combination of disappointment in Ricketts, outrageous ticket prices, a sub-par team and awful weather to start the season. I will say that if they are in an actual pennant race and look to be contending in the summer the stands will be full again.[/quote]
I agree completely Melissa. The Cubs have managed to disenfranchise just about every segment of Cubs fan that there is.
The people who love the Wrigley experience are pissed about the Toyota sign, the pictures up on the exterior, the painting of the marquee purple for the Northwestern game, and the change from organ music to recorded music for batters walking to the plate.
The people who want them to go balls to the wall and just spend like the Yankees are disappointed because the acquisitions have all been bargain basement deals on mid-range players that are nothing to get excited about.
The people who want them to just tear it all down and start over with cheap young talent from the farm system are pissed because they traded away a bunch of prospects for someone like Garza and refuse to deal Byrd or any other veteran that might have some value until it is too late (Lilly as a rental).
Meanwhile, they piss everyone off by charging an arm and a leg to get in the ballpark to see a team that nobody is excited about. They begged for state funds while the state is fucked sideways by billions in debt. I still can’t believe they went on a fucking reality television show.
It’s been a perfect storm of fucking things up every way possible. It’s unreal. I find it hard to believe they could have messed more up if they had been trying to.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Speaking of which, has anyone noticed how quiet the Rickettses are so far this year? I wonder if they learned something. I doubt it, but maybe that’s a straw to grasp that they might actually have a learning curve.
Of course, they may be trying to speak but can’t get a word in with Quade yammering on.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Sorry to interject with your stirring Coleman-vs-Cashner discussion, but both guys basically pitched one season or part of one season last year (forgot which). Isn’t the sample a bit too small to make conclusions based on luck?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Speaking of which, has anyone noticed how quiet the Rickettses are so far this year? I wonder if they learned something. I doubt it, but maybe that’s a straw to grasp that they might actually have a learning curve.
Of course, they may be trying to speak but can’t get a word in with Quade yammering on.[/quote]
Hahaha Rickettses? Sounds like something Golem would say in LOTR
fight2winQuote Reply
You can’t possibly look at what Coleman and Cashner did last year and say Cashner was better. It’s an irrefutable fact that Coleman was better. We have documented evidence that proves the opposite.
You can say you think Cashner will be better and I’d agree with that completely. I’ve never said otherwise. I’m just saying it’s literally impossible to look at what each accomplished last season (even if we ignore their roles) and say Cashenr was better. It’s like saying Ryan Theriot had a better season than Starlin Castro and finding one stat that shows he did. We know for a fact that Theriot’s 2010 season was not as good as Castro’s. It’s a fact. That’s how we know it. We know for certain that Castro was better. We also know for certain that Coleman was better than Cashner in 2010. In fact, we’re every bit as certain each of those statements is true because they are facts.
Barry Bonds is the all time home run champion. Like Calcaterra said, if you want to say that your opinion is that Ryne Sandberg is, go for it. It’s an opinion, but if you want to state as fact that Sandberg is the home run champion you’d be wrong.
mb21Quote Reply
Lucky doesn’t mean shit in one season, Doog. Lucky is part of the game. xFIP is not a measure of what actually happened.
I’m done. I’ve said all I have to say about this and can’t possibly be more clear.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Sorry to interject with your stirring Coleman-vs-Cashner discussion, but both guys basically pitched one season or part of one season last year (forgot which). Isn’t the sample a bit too small to make conclusions based on luck?[/quote]
Not when we’re talking about HR/FB. Almost every pitcher that will pitch in the majors has a true talent HR/FB rate of 11%. There are some very rare cases where this is not true, but as a general rule, that’s how it goes.
Cashner doesn’t have nothing stuff that will allow for a continued HR/FB rate of 13+%.
Coleman does not have a crapload of movement on his pitches ala Marmol that will allow for him to stay very far below 11% if not end up almost exactly right there.
The whole point of xFIP is to use it when you have a small sample size to adjust for a certain portion of luck.
DoogolasQuote Reply
Tell it, brother Tim.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=fight2win]I hate Doug Davis. Why not just bring back Steve Trachsel?[/quote]That was my first though when I saw the Cubs picked him on a minor league contract, when you look at his numbers he’s been pretty damn good in his career. Annoyingly good. I hate watching the guy pitch. In that sense I’d rather see Grabow gets starts (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I agree completely Melissa.[/quote]
Absolutely Correct.
melissaQuote Reply
True, but it’s worthless when used as an argument for who was better. Besides, you’re ignoring that Cashner was a reliever anyway. So even if you adjust the xFIP he had as a reliever, you need to add 1 run to it to put it on the same scale as Coleman. Or take 1 away from Coleman’s. Either way, you’re comparing apples and oranges.
mb21Quote Reply
Cashner’s adjusted xFIP as a starter: 5.26
Coleman’s xFIP: 4.97
Even if we take luck into account, which is silly when trying to figure out who WAS better, Coleman still ends up being better.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Lucky doesn’t mean shit in one season, Doog. Lucky is part of the game. xFIP is not a measure of what actually happened.
I’m done. I’ve said all I have to say about this and can’t possibly be more clear.[/quote]
Lucky does mean shit in one season. You and I are talking about how they will perform now. Coleman is a true talent 5.00ish xFIP pitcher.
Cashner is probably closer to between 4.00 and 4.20 right now.
What happened on the field is also not an indication necessarily of how they pitched.
Cashner got unlucky on a couple extra balls leaving the park. Coleman got lucky on a couple extra staying in the park.
It doesn’t mean Coleman pitched better.
Cashner pitched better than Coleman, Coleman just got better results. From time to time those things happen.
DoogolasQuote Reply
Coleman’s xFIP as a starter is 4.90 actually.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Cashner’s adjusted xFIP as a starter: 5.26
Coleman’s xFIP: 4.97
Even if we take luck into account, which is silly when trying to figure out who WAS better, Coleman still ends up being better.[/quote]
You don’t just add one. That makes no sense. A 4.26xFIP as a reliever does not equate to 5.26 as a starter.
DoogolasQuote Reply
I’m not talking about how well they will perform now. I don’t care. Picking between Cashner and Coleman isn’t really that big of a deal. One is a backend of the rotation starter while the other MIGHT be a number 2 or number 3, but probably ends up in the bullpen.
I’ve said all along I thought Cashner was the better pitcher, but based on what they have done it’s a 100% certainty that Coleman has been better so far. I’m shocked this is even being argued. I’m disappointed I’m still taking part in it.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=melissa]Absolutely Correct.[/quote]Genuinely sincere.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]You don’t just add one. That makes no sense. A 4.26xFIP as a reliever does not equate to 5.26 as a starter.[/quote]Yes it does.
mb21Quote Reply
This Cashner/Coleman debate is a real fun-sucker.
melissaQuote Reply
LOUD NOISES!!!
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=melissa]This Cashner/Coleman debate is a real fun-sucker.[/quote]
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Aisle424Quote Reply
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/starter_v_relief_1953_2008/
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’m not talking about how well they will perform now. I don’t care. Picking between Cashner and Coleman isn’t really that big of a deal. One is a backend of the rotation starter while the other MIGHT be a number 2 or number 3, but probably ends up in the bullpen.
I’ve said all along I thought Cashner was the better pitcher, but based on what they have done it’s a 100% certainty that Coleman has been better so far. I’m shocked this is even being argued. I’m disappointed I’m still taking part in it.[/quote]I disagree with you. If Cashner and Coleman pitch exactly the same way they did last year for their entire careers, Cashner’s results will ultimately be better.
Just because someone got better results does not mean they actually performed better.
I mean, if I go into a multiple choice test and get 75%. Another person goes in and gets 85%.
I went in and actually knew what was going on and the other person just completely guessed and got extremely lucky.
I would say that I performed better. The other person just managed to get very, very lucky.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]This Cashner/Coleman debate is a real fun-sucker.[/quote]I blame an ilk.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
If they pitch exactly as they did last year, Coleman will have a solid to very good MLB career while Cashner will be out of baseball before he ever pitches another 200 innings.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]I blame an ilk.[/quote]
Ilks are the WORST.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I would like to add the term fun-sucker to my verbal lexicon but I’m afraid I would end up calling people sun-fuckers.
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]If they pitch exactly as they did last year, Coleman will have a solid to very good MLB career while Cashner will be out of baseball before he ever pitches another 200 innings.[/quote]If they get the same results, yes, but they won’t.
DoogolasQuote Reply
But you did not perform better. 85% > 75%.
If you both performed exactly as you did on that test from that point forward, 75% is still less than 85%. At that point you’d have to think the other guy wasn’t getting so lucky.
Plus, a more accurate comparison for Cashner and Coleman would be Cashner getting a 75% on a 9th grade exam at the same age Coleman is getting an 85% on a freshman exam in college.
mb21Quote Reply
Anyways, the Bulls are on in 20 minutes. So I’m done with this conversation.
All I’ll say is that by the end of this year I’d be stunned if Coleman has an FIP, xFIP, ERA or any other thing that says he is more than a #6 starter.
DoogolasQuote Reply
I think he’ll be better than that, but at least now we’re talking opinions and not facts. I also think Cashner will be better. Don’t think it would be close if given the chance either.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]But you did not perform better. 85% > 75%.
If you both performed exactly as you did on that test from that point forward, 75% is still less than 85%. At that point you’d have to think the other guy wasn’t getting so lucky.
Plus, a more accurate comparison for Cashner and Coleman would be Cashner getting a 75% on a 9th grade exam at the same age Coleman is getting an 85% on a freshman exam in college.[/quote]
Except if we both go in and I know what I’m doing and he’s still just guessing. Luck is going to catch up to him eventually. But seriously, I can’t have this conversation anymore. It’s pointless, we won’t agree, and we clearly have different ways of viewing performance. You’re using results. I’m using peripherals to try and figure out how I feel they pitched to figure out what their results should and will be if it continues.
It’s not like I’m saying Coleman’s 4.14ERA was worse than Cashner’s 4.80(?).
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]I would like to add the term fun-sucker to my verbal lexicon but I’m afraid I would end up calling people sun-fuckers.[/quote]
That’s hot.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
How did we not ever use the Anchorman news team in any of our Obstructed View hype?
We really are fun-suckers.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I think he’ll be better than that, but at least now we’re talking opinions and not facts. I also think Cashner will be better. Don’t think it would be close if given the chance either.[/quote]
I’m not sure what your last sentence means. What won’t be close if given the chance?
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]
How did we not ever use the Anchorman news team in any of our Obstructed View hype?
We really are fun-suckers.[/quote]That’s some pretty poor oversight.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]That’s some pretty poor oversight.[/quote]
No dinner for any of us. God, I’m hungry. I don’t remember the last time I ate.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]No dinner for any of us. God, I’m hungry. I don’t remember the last time I ate.[/quote]
Even if I wanted to eat, I couldn’t leave this riveting 5th starter debate.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]
How did we not ever use the Anchorman news team in any of our Obstructed View hype?
We really are fun-suckers.[/quote]We could pretend we did. In 2 years nobody will remember we didn’t. We’d look that much cooler. Looking cool is important to me. I assume it is to you too.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=GW]Even if I wanted to eat, I couldn’t leave this riveting 5th starter debate.[/quote]Yeah, I wouldn’t know why anyone would want to eat when there’s this awesome blog here. What the fuck?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]
How did we not ever use the Anchorman news team in any of our Obstructed View hype?
We really are fun-suckers.[/quote]
I will fight you!
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]Even if I wanted to eat, I couldn’t leave this riveting 5th starter debate.[/quote]
We can make it officially official. This is the worst thing every to happen on this blog. Damn us and our fun-sucking ilk.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]We can make it officially official. This is the worst thing every to happen on this blog. Damn us and our fun-sucking ilk.[/quote]
And for the record, I blame 424.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]We can make it officially official. This is the worst thing every to happen on this blog. Damn us and our fun-sucking ilk.[/quote]
Fun-sucking Ilk. Great band.
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]I’m not sure what your last sentence means. What won’t be close if given the chance?[/quote]Cashner will end up being quite a bit better not only in 2011, but over their careers if he’s given a chance to start. Like I said in the chat, I think Coleman is more than capable of doing an OK job and the Cubs will stick with him. Also, Trey McNutt could be coming along soon enough and we know that the Cubs aren’t 100% certain on whether or not Cashner is a starter. If McNutt proves he’s ready to go at some point in the next few months, McNutt will jump Cashner on the depth chart. This assumes Cashner doesn’t go crazy and pitch outstanding when he returns.
I guess I’m just saying that I think the rotation will be fine and the Cubs will instead send Cashner to the bullpen.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]We could pretend we did. In 2 years nobody will remember we didn’t. We’d look that much cooler. Looking cool is important to me. I assume it is to you too.[/quote]
The most important thing every! What more important than looking cool? If I can fake being in a Gay Sex Chat Room, I can fake some pre-blog hype. I’m on it.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=GW]And for the record, I blame 424.[/quote]Fun-suckers get blamed for everything.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]The most important thing every! What more important than looking cool? If I can fake being in a Gay Sex Chat Room, I can fake some pre-blog hype. I’m on it.[/quote]We should also create images of upcoming movies. We could like visionaries.
mb21Quote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/21/selig-baseball-moving-inexorably-toward-a-ten-team-playoff/
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Cashner will end up being quite a bit better not only in 2011, but over their careers if he’s given a chance to start. Like I said in the chat, I think Coleman is more than capable of doing an OK job and the Cubs will stick with him. Also, Trey McNutt could be coming along soon enough and we know that the Cubs aren’t 100% certain on whether or not Cashner is a starter. If McNutt proves he’s ready to go at some point in the next few months, McNutt will jump Cashner on the depth chart. This assumes Cashner doesn’t go crazy and pitch outstanding when he returns.
I guess I’m just saying that I think the rotation will be fine and the Cubs will instead send Cashner to the bullpen.[/quote]
Sending him to the pen would be a pretty stupid decision. But I certainly wouldn’t put it past the Cubs.
As for the rest, it’s not like I hope you’re wrong about Coleman, it’d be very nice if he could be decent. I just don’t think he will be I guess.
In two years there isn’t really any reason the Cubs rotation won’t look like this though:
Wells
Cashner
McNutt
Garza
Jackson/Coleman
Something along those lines. So I’d really prefer they not be shortsighted in sending Cashner to the pen already.
DoogolasQuote Reply
Kevin Love is the most awkward human being alive.
He does not look comfortable in front of a camera.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/21/selig-baseball-moving-inexorably-toward-a-ten-team-playoff/[/quote]
I agree with the commenters. While I hate the idea at first, since I don’t have a say in the matter and it’s happening anyway, the bright side is that the wild card will force teams to build better for that shot at the playoffs, while at the same time giving more incentive to winning the division outright.
Although I don’t think that addresses the problem of letting a weak division winner have a bye while two strong wild cards have to duke it out.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’m not sure I’d want a bye in baseball playoffs. That’s a looooot of time off.
DoogolasQuote Reply
(dying laughing) at Ryan Franklin calling out the best fans in baseball.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]And for the record, I blame 424.[/quote]
I blame Jerry.
BerseliusQuote Reply
FWIW on the playoff stuff I don’t give a shit if they put all 30 teams in the playoffs. It’s already unlikely that the best team will win in the current format. Even if they go back to the old school playoffs where there isn’t even a LCS the lesser team will still win a nontrivial number of times. In many ways it could be more exciting if they just made it a massive single-elimination tournament like March madness, or even the NFL.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]FWIW on the playoff stuff I don’t give a shit if they put all 30 teams in the playoffs. It’s already unlikely that the best team will win in the current format. Even if they go back to the old school playoffs where there isn’t even a LCS the lesser team will still win a nontrivial number of times. In many ways it could be more exciting if they just made it a massive single-elimination tournament like March madness, or even the NFL.[/quote]
or they could do it like the college world series and play….ok i have no fucking clue how the cws works.
GWQuote Reply
Dear Cubs pitching staff,
Do not pitch to Matt Kemp. Everyone else is okay.
Signed,
The braves
fight2winQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]or they could do it like the college world series and play….ok i have no fucking clue how the cws works.[/quote]
(dying laughing). Isn’t it some sort of round robin? I kind of like that idea.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius](dying laughing). Isn’t it some sort of round robin? I kind of like that idea.[/quote]
maybe bubbles knows
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius](dying laughing). Isn’t it some sort of misting station? I kind of like that idea.[/quote]Yes
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I blame Jerry.[/quote]I blame society.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKIaS0lh-uo
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Michael burgess hit his 6th homerun for daytona. No easy feat
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
The College World Series has two brackets with four teams each. The brackets are double elimination and the winners of each advance to the championship. The winners play a 3-game series. Pretty simple.
It only gets complicated because of the regionals and super regionals. There are 16 regions with 4 teams each and it’s double elimination. The winner advances to the super regional. The teams are seeded again 1-8 with 1 vs 8 and so on. Each series is a 3-game series with the winner advancing to the College World Series.
Regionals: 16 regions, 4 teams, each, double elimination
Super Regionals: 8 regions, 2 teams, best of 3
CWS: 2 brackets, double elimination like the regionals, winner of each bracket advances to championship, best of 3
mb21Quote Reply
new shit
http://obstructedview.net/articles/major-league-baseball/evaluating-the-braun-deals.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
Bulls might get swept in round two. I think the pacers have uncovered the blueprint
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
So Braun is getting $145 million over the next 10 years. I started him at 4.3 WAR, dropped by .5 WAR each year, used $4.8 $WAR increased by 7.5% each year and I get $131 million. 10% discount gives you $118 million.
Just making a few tweaks: increase inflation to 10%, 4.5 WAR in 2011, 4.3 WAR in 2012 and then -.5 WAR each year after you get this:
Year $ WAR $WAR
2011 4.80 4.5 21.60
2012 5.28 4.3 22.70
2013 5.81 3.8 22.07
2014 6.39 3.3 21.08
2015 7.03 2.8 19.68
2016 7.73 2.3 17.78
2017 8.50 1.8 15.31
2018 9.35 1.3 12.16
2019 10.29 0.8 8.23
2020 11.32 0.3 3.40
164.01
149.10
The Brewers appear to be thinking he won’t age as some have due to his athleticism, which may be true and they’re also thinking inflation will jump back to 10%.
I’m not saying it’s a good deal, but I think we have to figure out what the Brewers were thinking first. Either that or they overrated him to start. I don’t know. Not a deal I’d have done. Not for at least 4 years.
mb21Quote Reply
Mcnutt was rough tonight
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Mcnutt was rough tonight[/quote]McRubb it with some McLotionn and it will be fine.
AndCountingQuote Reply