It was a banner day at Wrigley. The Cubs won, Carlos Marmol didn’t completely implode, and there were a couple of homeruns. There was also an actual banner. I don’t know what Houston did to these people, but they want to get them realigned the hell out of the National League Central.
(Brian Cassella, Chicago Tribune / July 23, 2011)
I think all that would accomplish is that the Cubs would be in last place. I’d say maybe they’re Cardinals fans, but the words are all spelled correctly.
i havent seen mcnutt throw a breaking pitch yet
I love these PoD’s. (dying laughing)
McNutt struck someone out. Big game for him tonight. (dying laughing)
it was the pitcher (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]McNutt struck someone out. Big game for him tonight. (dying laughing)[/quote]No one on the internets hates on prospects like MB21. (dying laughing)
honestly md, he still has his fastball but he isnt mixing his pitches at all
[quote name=dylanj]it was the pitcher (dying laughing)[/quote]Year One!
ive been watching for three innings and he just threw his first offspeed pitch…….it bounced before homeplate
[quote name=dylanj]honestly md, he still has his fastball but he isnt mixing his pitches at all [/quote]I don’t know what the deal is, but what I do know is that if you strikeout 5.2 per 9 in AA, you’ve got zero chance to even be an effective starter at the MLB level and being a good reliever will be difficult as well. His strikeout rate is equal to what Casey Coleman’s was in AA.
The only thing to hope for is that the blisters have had an impact. I’m starting to think they have not, which easily drops him out of the top 10 Cubs prospects and it’s not like that list is full of really good ballplayers either.
maybe his breaking pitches aggravate his blister? its pretty bizarre watching this
It’s somewhat of a sham victory when the only reason the Cubs aren’t in last place is because there’s a team that sucks more than they do. Which I guess is true by default anyway.
Kind of cool that there were 40000+ fans at Wrigley though for this weekend suckfest. Tickets must have been ubercheap on StubHub.
[quote name=mb21]I love these PoD’s. (dying laughing)[/quote]
So that is one vote for keeping them and one vote against.
[quote name=mb21]I don’t know what the deal is, but what I do know is that if you strikeout 5.2 per 9 in AA, you’ve got zero chance to even be an effective starter at the MLB level and being a good reliever will be difficult as well. His strikeout rate is equal to what Casey Coleman’s was in AA.
The only thing to hope for is that the blisters have had an impact. I’m starting to think they have not, which easily drops him out of the top 10 Cubs prospects and it’s not like that list is full of really good ballplayers either.[/quote]
i get all that, but when you watch him your seeing a guy with a mlb fastball. he is throwing 91-94 locating well on the outside but thats all he is throwing. i would imagine its hard to k that many guys even in AA with one pitch
i can watch ben wells tonight as well. this milb.tv thing is neat
Not to mention he’s given up more than 11 hits per 9 innings in AA since the end of last year. So yeah, he needs to work on something. Don’t know what it is, but something. Anything.
[quote name=Aisle424]So that is one vote for keeping them and one vote against.[/quote]If you hadn’t fired me, my vote would have counted for 37, but now it counts for -2.
[quote name=mb21]If you hadn’t fired me, my vote would have counted for 37, but now it counts for -2.[/quote]
I like that even after you were fired, you still hang around and bitch about
people taking your staplerCubs prospects.[quote name=dylanj]i get all that, but when you watch him your seeing a guy with a mlb fastball. he is throwing 91-94 locating well on the outside but thats all he is throwing. i would imagine its hard to k that many guys even in AA with one pitch[/quote]It would be hard to K that many with one pitch anywhere. I don’t really care about the velocity. It’s nice and I’m glad he can still throw hard, but he’s getting the shit kicked out of him in AA despite it. Like I said, I don’t know what the issue is, but this has been a horrible season for him in more ways than one.
[quote name=dylanj]maybe his breaking pitches aggravate his blister? its pretty bizarre watching this[/quote]Or maybe something’s more wrong with him than blisters. Remember how they made a fuss with Whitknack that nothing was wrong and even tried to start him on a throwing program.
[quote name=Aisle424]I like that even after you were fired, you still hang around and bitch about
people taking your staplerCubs prospects.[/quote]That’s how selfless I am.[quote name=mb21]That’s how selfless I am.[/quote]You really get the most out of your talent. A crafty, smart, hardworking team player, who knows how to win and does the little things the right way.
man, minor league parks are shitty. i could be wrong but our AA warning track looks to be made of cement
after getting down 2-0 to Neftali Soto he threw 3 straight fastballs at 93 for the K
still no breaking pitches
[quote name=dylanj]after getting down 2-0 to Neftali Soto he threw 3 straight fastballs at 93 for the K
still no breaking pitches[/quote]I wonder if he’s been told to shut down the breaking stuff. I know the A’s did that to Harden more than once.
well he finally threw another curve but it was beyond awful. he has no offspeed stuff right now.
[quote name=dylanj]well he finally threw another curve but it was beyond awful. he has no offspeed stuff right now.[/quote]No bueno. I beginning to think there’s a more serious issue than blisters at work here.
and another K was a 93 mph heater to end the inning.
No idea MO. This is my first time seeing McNutt. Physically he looks just like Ben Sheets. And he has a nice fastball. But he has tried two curves all game and both were terrible. He also beaned a guy in the leg and the poor guy collapsed
[quote name=dylanj]and another K was a 93 mph heater to end the inning.
No idea MO. This is my first time seeing McNutt. Physically he looks just like Ben Sheets. And he has a nice fastball. But he has tried two curves all game and both were terrible. He also beaned a guy in the leg and the poor guy collapsed[/quote]Is it a control issue, or are his curves just flat and dead?
http://www.wimp.com/longthrows/
Rick Ankiel’s throwing arm on display.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Is it a control issue, or are his curves just flat and dead?[/quote]
both
[quote name=dylanj]both[/quote]Ugh. That screams “arm problems” to me.
[quote name=ACT]http://www.wimp.com/longthrows/
Rick Ankiel’s throwing arm on display.[/quote]Wow
[quote name=ACT]http://www.wimp.com/longthrows/
Rick Ankiel’s throwing arm on display.[/quote]
You know there was this one throw I remember from Ankiel where he snags a deep flyout at the warning track and then takes one step and fires to first to try to double up the runner…except he almost overthrows the first baseman IN THE AIR. I wish I remember which game and which teams were playing (I am 90% certain Ankiel was still a Cardinal).
tim wilken is being interviewed
[quote name=Rice Cube]You know there was this one throw I remember from Ankiel where he snags a deep flyout at the warning track and then takes one step and fires to first to try to double up the runner…except he almost overthrows the first baseman IN THE AIR. I wish I remember which game and which teams were playing (I am 90% certain Ankiel was still a Cardinal).[/quote]
yeah, he’s always had some control issues (dying laughing)
[quote name=dylanj]tim wilken is being interviewed[/quote]
by another team? (crosses fingers)
[quote name=dylanj]tim wilken is being interviewed[/quote]He talking about this year’s picks?
Another strikeout for Brett Jackson *sad face*
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Ugh. That screams “arm problems” to me.[/quote]I don’t know about that. He’s throwing and has only missed time because of a blister and a collision. If he’s injured, he hasn’t said anything so that’s on him. I doubt he is. Fastball is still pretty good. The secondary pitches just haven’t come along as they expected they would from the sound of it. We also have to keep in mind that he only had thrown 143 innings in his professional career before this season. It’s entirely possible in that few innings that even a bad pitcher could pitch well (see Silva, Carlos). It happens. I don’t know if that’s what’s up with McNutt. Too early to tell, but the strikeout rate is a huge concern at this point.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]He talking about this year’s picks?[/quote]
yeah, feels really great about this years draft
its strange because i remember Goldstein raving about McNutt’s curve. Maybe he is just having an off night
[quote name=GW]by another team? (crosses fingers)[/quote]Hope to God?
3 singles and mcnutt has a bases loaded jam to deal with
[quote name=dylanj]yeah, feels really great about last year’s draft.[/quote].
[quote name=mb21]I don’t know about that. He’s throwing and has only missed time because of a blister and a collision. If he’s injured, he hasn’t said anything so that’s on him. I doubt he is. Fastball is still pretty good. The secondary pitches just haven’t come along as they expected they would from the sound of it. We also have to keep in mind that he only had thrown 143 innings in his professional career before this season. It’s entirely possible in that few innings that even a bad pitcher could pitch well (see Silva, Carlos). It happens. I don’t know if that’s what’s up with McNutt. Too early to tell, but the strikeout rate is a huge concern at this point.[/quote]With as many times as he’s gone down, and with the way Dj described his breaking stuff, it sounds like more than rust. It sounds like the banged up version of Mark Prior.
[quote name=dylanj]its strange because i remember Goldstein raving about McNutt’s curve. Maybe he just needs a few towel drills[/quote]
.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]With as many times as he’s gone down, and with the way Dj described his breaking stuff, it sounds like more than rust. It sounds like the banged up version of Mark Prior.[/quote]Prior was pitching 86 mph there at the end. Sounds like McNutt is still hitting 94 mph. It might be more than rust. It might just be that those 143 innings prior to this season were way above his talent level.
wilken is saying a few of our picks are being delayed by the commish
[quote name=dylanj]wilken is saying a few of our picks are being delayed by the commish[/quote]
seems odd that bud doesn’t put a gag order out when that happens. kinda defeats the purpose, no?
Like I said, it’s all about the strikeouts. Really good starting pitchers in the minors strike a lot of batters out. McNutt was doing pretty well prior to reaching AA and has just collapsed since then. Don’t know why and I’m not sure it really matters. Either he’s not as good as we thought entering the season, he’s injured, he’s been exposed at the higher levels like Jay Jackson and many other pitchers were or it has to do with the series of injuries this season.
I’ll take a wait and see approach. (dying laughing)
[quote name=GW]seems odd that bud doesn’t put a gag order out when that happens. kinda defeats the purpose, no?[/quote]You’d think, but Bud Selig isn’t the smartest man in any room.
full count bases loaded
wilken says he didnt feel this was a good pitchers draft but rather a bunch of guys with velocity
GREAT change to get the K
Wilken was saying he’s clocked McNutt as high as 97 tonight. The announcers have only called 94. So who knows.
this is kind of fun but absolutely strange. That change was the ONLY off speed pitch the entire inning.
final line
5 IP 6 H 1ER 0 BB 4K – 74 pitches 49 strikes
[quote name=dylanj]final line
5 IP 6 H 1ER 0 BB 4K – 74 pitches 49 strikes[/quote]So, like 2 innings of Dempster.
I see the Smokies won. Did McNutt get a W?
Harden —> Red Sox?
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/07/23/red-sox-have-interest-in-as-right-hander-rich-harden/
Trade rumors are fun!
[quote name=Rice Cube]Harden —> Red Sox?
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/07/23/red-sox-have-interest-in-as-right-hander-rich-harden/
Trade rumors are fun![/quote]Honestly, if they’re willing to take Harden on, why isn’t Jim offering them Dempster or Garza?
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Honestly, if they’re willing to take Harden on, why isn’t Jim offering them Dempster or Garza?[/quote]
Because they’re untouchable.
Here’s a nice post from Joe Poz about the 2013 HOF class:
http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/07/23/the-future-of-the-hall-of-fame/
I have a sentimental bias for Sosa in the HOF, but I doubt it’ll happen and I think he’s borderline based on WAR anyway.
At some point I don’t think Maddon is going to want to use Kyle Farnsworth anymore. It seems like every time I follow a Rays game, Kyle is there to blow a save. Might be wrong though (lying eyes and all that)
Joakim Soria is having a Marmol moment.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Because they’re untouchable.
Here’s a nice post from Joe Poz about the 2013 HOF class:
http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/07/23/the-future-of-the-hall-of-fame/
I have a sentimental bias for Sosa in the HOF, but I doubt it’ll happen and I think he’s borderline based on WAR anyway.[/quote]Sosa will never get in, and Cubs fans will wear his failure to do so as a merit badge, and take it as validation for all their prejudice and ignorance.
And like Marmol, Soria wiggled out of it.
Sam Fuld’s WAR > Soriano’s
[quote name=josh]And like Marmol, Soria wiggled out of it.[/quote]
The Rays pulled a Cub.
[quote name=josh]Sam Fuld’s WAR > Soriano’s[/quote]Give it a month. (dying laughing)
But, yeah, Soriano has been dreadful this year.
(dying laughing) @ Rays bullpen…crap.
Why is Sosa borderline? Just because of the doping suspicion? I wonder how they will handle Barry and Mac.
Fuld’s value is all defense.
Sosa has 59.7 rWAR for his career and I thought people normally looked at 60 WAR as the HOF borderline so that’s why I said borderline.
[quote name=josh]Why is Sosa borderline? Just because of the doping suspicion? I wonder how they will handle Barry and Mac.[/quote]I think as long as the SAINTED HOLY WRITERS WHO KNOW THE PLATONIC FORM OF THE GOOD live, those guys will never get in. It will take a long time before the BBWAA is disabused of the luddites.
[quote name=josh]Why is Sosa borderline? Just because of the doping suspicion? I wonder how they will handle Barry and Mac.[/quote]He’s just below the typical WAR threshold, and his early and later career were nowhere near as good as his peak.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I think as long as the SAINTED HOLY WRITERS WHO KNOW THE PLATONIC FORM OF THE GOOD live, those guys will never get in. It will take a long time before the BBWAA is disabused of the luddites.[/quote]
You and Joe Poz seem to think alike.
This is no longer true after tonight, but still funny.
[quote name=Rice Cube]You and Joe Poz seem to think alike.[/quote]Poz is the best baseball writer out there. I wish I thought like him.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]He’s just below the typical WAR threshold, and his early and later career were nowhere near as good as his peak.[/quote]I don’t know how to feel about Sammy. His career numbers are kind of interesting. His defense was really good early on with the Cubs, but his offense decreased each year, then suddenly his offense went off the charts and his defense faded to nothing. You could argue that he quit worrying about defense and concentrated solely on offense. You could also argue he knew his offense was starting to slip so he got a little “boost” that rocketed him back into superstardom. But on the whole, ignoring the doping allegations, he was a fun player and has a lot of those nice little factoids they print on your plaque in Cooperstown.
[quote name=josh]I don’t know how to feel about Sammy. His career numbers are kind of interesting. His defense was really good early on with the Cubs, but his offense decreased each year, then suddenly his offense went off the charts and his defense faded to nothing. You could argue that he quit worrying about defense and concentrated solely on offense. You could also argue he knew his offense was starting to slip so he got a little “boost” that rocketed him back into superstardom. But on the whole, ignoring the doping allegations, he was a fun player and has a lot of those nice little factoids they print on your plaque in Cooperstown.[/quote]Yeah, even without the steroid noise, Sosa would be an interesting case. But given the PED noise, these moralizing fucks will use the next few ballots to go on one last ride on their pathetic high horse. Bagwell is the first casualty of their Pontius Pilate routine. There will be many others as the writers seek to absolve themselves of the role they played in the scandal.
I love listening to the Brewers on the MLB Audio because Uecker is awesome. Too bad it’s the Brewers. He’s just a good announcer.
How will the Astros leaving the division be anything but bad for the Cubs? I have a friend who’s a diehard Astros fan and even he admits the year they went to the Series was all smoke and mirrors.
[quote name=josh]I love listening to the Brewers on the MLB Audio because Uecker is awesome. Too bad it’s the Brewers. He’s just a good announcer.
How will the Astros leaving the division be anything but bad for the Cubs? I have a friend who’s a diehard Astros fan and even he admits the year they went to the Series was all smoke and mirrors.[/quote]These people are Cub fans. You can’t expect them to think rationally.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]These people are Cub fans. You can’t expect them to think rationally.[/quote]
It’s a general sports fan phenomenon but it’s amazing how crazy Cubs fans can be.
In my opinion, Sosa’s career numbers put him on the border of the Hall of Fame, and his 2001 season pushes him over.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yeah, even without the steroid noise, Sosa would be an interesting case. But given the PED noise, these moralizing fucks will use the next few ballots to go on one last ride on their pathetic high horse. Bagwell is the first casualty of their Pontius Pilate routine. There will be many others as the writers seek to absolve themselves of the role they played in the scandal.[/quote]I try to get worked up that these guys used ‘roids and I can’t. Sammy was fun to watch. MacGwire wasn’t, but only because he was a God Damn Cardinal. Why is Griffey Jr. immune from any talk of steroids, just out of curiosity? If Bagwell was never implicated, but gets the boot, why not Griffey? Are we going purely on muscle mass?
Lilly is getting shelled, and they haven’t even hit a home run against him.
Lilly also had an RBI sac bunt (not a squeeze; he tried to advance the runner on first to second, and the runner on third scored).
[quote name=josh]I try to get worked up that these guys used ‘roids and I can’t. Sammy was fun to watch. MacGwire wasn’t, but only because he was a God Damn Cardinal. Why is Griffey Jr. immune from any talk of steroids, just out of curiosity? If Bagwell was never implicated, but gets the boot, why not Griffey? Are we going purely on muscle mass?[/quote]The criteria is purely arbitrary. You show that the numbers don’t work, these fucks start bleating about cap sizes and muscle growth, you show how that absolutely no correlation to hitting HR, and then they start chatting up the numbers test, then you show them the randomness in the numbers and start talking about how Ryne Sandberg and the sainted Hank Aaron both had odd spikes, and they start palavering about the sanctity of the game, and when you show them that the game’s never been pure and there are several players in the HOF who are known and proven rulebreakers, and then they start crying about the children. The anti-steroid era player argument at this point is simply an exercise in goalpost shifting eristic.
And here it is: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17217945
Lilly just hit a bases-loaded double for to more RBI (3 for the day). I’m not making this up.
*two
[quote name=ACT]And here it is: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17217945/quoteLoney was really lucky there. I always liked Ted Lilly’s little league swing, where he started with the the bat level behind him.
[quote name=ACT]Lilly just hit a bases-loaded double for to more RBI (3 for the day). I’m not making this up.[/quote]A bases-loaded double counts as a Grand Slam in the Lilly-to-regular-hitter conversion.
[quote name=ACT]In my opinion, Sosa’s career numbers put him on the border of the Hall of Fame, and his 2001 season pushes him over.[/quote]Tjhat’s reasonable, but we’re about to enter an area of more bizarre HOF voting backed up by specious argumentation than we’ve yet seen.
And that’s saying something, since this is a group of cocktards that only gave Tim Raines 24% of the vote, then backed it with vague allusions to cocaine use, despite the presence of Paul Molitor, admitted cocaine user, in the HOF.
This guy is in the Hall of Fame, too
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]The criteria is purely arbitrary. You show that the numbers don’t work, these fucks start bleating about cap sizes and muscle growth, you show how that absolutely no correlation to hitting HR, and then they start chatting up the numbers test, then you show them the randomness in the numbers and start talking about how Ryne Sandberg and the sainted Hank Aaron both had odd spikes, and they start palavering about the sanctity of the game, and when you show them that the game’s never been pure and there are several players in the HOF who are known and proven rulebreakers, and then they start crying about the children. The anti-steroid era player argument at this point is simply an exercise in goalpost shifting eristic.[/quote]Yeah, like with Sosa’s corked bat. Everyone got all up in arms, despite scientific evidence that showed a corked bat actually makes the ball travel less far on average.
[quote name=josh]Yeah, like with Sosa’s corked bat. Everyone got all up in arms, despite scientific evidence that showed a corked bat actually makes the ball travel less far on average.[/quote]Yep. But these people can’t be reasoned with.
[quote name=ACT]This guy is in the Hall of Fame, too
[/quote]There was that Chilie Davis interview last week where he said Nolan Ryan used to scuff the ball. I don’t seem to recall Nolan Ryan being lynched afterward.
“You put SNOT on the ball?”
“…some day you will too.”
[quote name=josh]There was that Chilie Davis interview last week where he said Nolan Ryan used to scuff the ball. I don’t seem to recall Nolan Ryan being lynched afterward.
“You put SNOT on the ball?”
“…some day you will too.”[/quote]Drysdale is also on the list of spittballers, and Phil Niekro was always a suspected scuffer.
Whitey Ford scuffed the ball later in his career.
[quote name=ACT]Whitey Ford scuffed the ball later in his career.[/quote]“Well, maybe a little.” (dying laughing)
If you put Manny Ramirez and Matt Holliday side-by-side and asked you to pick which one was on steroids, who are most people going to pick?
You know what? Who cares? I liked Manny’s lazy Latino ass. He made the game fun.
I would, of course, never suggest that Castro could really benefit from some off-season “help.” On the other hand, since he’s really only 19, he should probably wait.
[quote name=josh]Loney was really lucky there. I always liked Ted Lilly’s little league swing, where he started with the the bat level behind him.[/quote]
That was a really nice block by the catcher, but the bobble definitely didn’t help.
[quote name=josh]If you put Manny Ramirez and Matt Holliday side-by-side and asked you to pick which one was on steroids, who are most people going to pick?
You know what? Who cares? I liked Manny’s lazy Latino ass. He made the game fun.[/quote]There’s no way to tell, especially if a guy is using under the supervision of a doctor and a nutritionist. A guy who looked like Greg Maddux could have been using just much as a guy that looked like Josh Hamilton. Just different drugs in different doses and a different training regimen. The “eye test” is even more faulty than the “numbers test.” and both assume the PEDs are some sort of magic pill, when there is every single indication that they simply are not.
http://www.csnchicago.com/07/22/11/Cubs-prospect-DeVoss-shining-early-at-Bo/landing_onthefarm.html?blockID=542970&feedID=619
this kid is going to be fun to watch. Best eye in the system most likely
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]There’s no way to tell, especially if a guy is using under the supervision of a doctor and a nutritionist. A guy who looked like Greg Maddux could have been using just much as a guy that looked like Josh Hamilton. Just different drugs in different doses and a different training regimen. The “eye test” is even more faulty than the “numbers test.” and both assume the PEDs are some sort of magic pill, when there is every single indication that they simply are not.[/quote]Yep, there’s no steroid that teaches you pitch selection.
[quote name=dylanj]http://www.csnchicago.com/07/22/11/Cubs-prospect-DeVoss-shining-early-at-Bo/landing_onthefarm.html?blockID=542970&feedID=619
this kid is going to be fun to watch. Best eye in the system most likely[/quote]Wasn’t he touted as a slap-hitting speedster in the draft? Everything I read about him after the Cubs drafted him sounded like “scrappy white guy” to me.
.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Wasn’t he touted as a slap-hitting speedster in the draft? Everything I read about him after the Cubs drafted him sounded like “scrappy white guy” to me.[/quote]
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
He’s black.
[quote name=josh]Yep, there’s no steroid that teaches you pitch selection.[/quote]Or mechanics. Or timing. There’s so much more to hitting than strength, and the bleating of the steroid police to the contrary only betrays their profound ignorance of the game.
[quote name=Rice Cube](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
He’s black.[/quote]He’ll be the next Lance Johnson! One Dog! I swear, to this day, he’s the only non-white player I’ve heard called “scrappy.”
Ted Lilly’s bases-loaded double: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17219585
hes got contact skills, very fast and a really really good eye.
Also Jeffery Antigua is up there in our top pitching prospects. Another great start
From BA:
[quote name=Rice Cube](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
He’s black.[/quote]So he’s Bobby Scales?
Ted Lilly’s swing looks like an unfolding lawn chair.
[quote name=josh]So he’s Bobby Scales?[/quote]
Does he substitute teach too? This guy does everything. It won’t be long before he gets to Japan.
The Cubs don’t go overslot very often….
…But when they do, it’s for a 3rd round pick who wasn’t ranked in the top 200
[quote name=Rice Cube]Does he substitute teach too? This guy does everything. It won’t be long before he gets to Japan.[/quote]Chicago Cubs are now the minor league system for the Nippon Hams.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]The Cubs don’t go overslot very often….
…But when they do, it’s for a 3rd round pick who wasn’t ranked in the top 200[/quote]Ricketts has started a really promising steroid program…..
It all makes sense now. They DO have a plan!
[quote name=josh]Chicago Cubs are now the minor league system for the Nippon Hams.[/quote](dying laughing) If I ran the blog, that comment would have earned you a shirt.
Becoming Nippon Ham Fighters’ Minor League Affiliate: It’s A Way of Life.
[quote name=josh]Chicago Cubs are now the minor league system for the Nippon Hams.[/quote]That is awesome.
[quote name=josh]I would, of course, never suggest that Castro could really benefit from some off-season “help.” On the other hand, since he’s really only 19, he should probably wait.[/quote]
That’s how Sandberg did it.
[quote name=GBTS]That’s how Cindy Sandberg did it.[/quote]
.
Peasants!! Arst thou conversing?
If so, you should be conversing about Omar Little joining the cast of Community next season
http://nymag.com/daily/entertainment/2011/07/the_wire_star_michael_k_willia.html?imw=Y&f=most-emailed-24h5
Is Gillick the GM yet?
NFL ———–> reached a CBA deal, reportedly
There was a great piece on ESPN yesterday about the NFL lockout that interviewed Marvin Miller. Good read.
http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/columns/story?columnist=oconnor_ian&id=6796538
Rasmus might be headed to the White Sox. Scott Rolen approves. Great work, TLR!
[quote name=Berselius]Rasmus might be headed to the White Sox. Scott Rolen approves. Great work, TLR![/quote]
Oooh, now they have a real outfielder!
/tongue-in-cheek
MB, when you continue your 2012 NL Central champ series, were you considering Yu Darvish?
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/07/24/nationals-among-teams-hoping-yu-darvish-heads-to-mlb/
So um we gonna win 3 in a row today?
I kinda want to keep the streak alive
absurdity:
lenandbob
From Astros announcer Bill Brown, Houston’s last 27 hits have been singles.
Cubbiejulie is throwing out the first pitch today
[quote name=Berselius]Cubbiejulie is throwing out the first pitch today[/quote]
somewhere Yellon is crying
[quote name=Berselius]Cubbiejulie is throwing out the first pitch today[/quote]
Was she the featured first pitcher, or just one of the 20 they let do it before the game?
[quote name=dylanj]somewhere Yellon is crying[/quote]
I’m surprised, if this is true, that Yellon has never thrown a first pitch.
Still April?
[quote name=Rice Cube]I’m surprised, if this is true, that Yellon has never thrown a first pitch.[/quote]
She said on her blog that it was through BP, so it wasn’t just her blog status that get her there. But still, Yellon had to be seething.
I think they only televised some Colts guy throwing out the first pitch so no Julie highlights unless she had someone filming the awesomeness.
Mariners===> about to lose 15 in a row
[quote name=Rice Cube]I’m surprised, if this is true, that Yellon has never thrown a first pitch.[/quote]
No first pitch until all blacks removed from HOF
Baltimore is losing. So is KC. Cubs —> #3 pick if this keeps up.
castro is bad at sports right now
BABIP hates Matt Garza.
[quote name=dylanj]castro is bad at sports right now[/quote]It will get ugly, ugly, ugly for this kid if he doesn’t pan out. It’ll probably get ugly anyway, because everyone thinks he’s the next A-Rod, when he’s probably more in Edgar Renteria/Carlos Guillen territory.
[quote name=Rice Cube]BABIP hates Matt Garza.[/quote]Maybe he should stop trying to gun belt-high fastballs past every hitter he sees.
I swear that after UZR, there is not one metric used more cavalierly than BABiP.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Maybe he should stop trying to gun belt-high fastballs past every hitter he sees.
I swear that after UZR, there is not one metric used more cavalierly than BABiP.[/quote]That said, Garza’s BABiP (.313) is up just a bit from his career avg (.289). But he’s a flyball pitcher in a hitter’s park, plus he’s a guy who throws a fuckload of strikes and he’s backed up by a pretty shit defense, so maybe that uptick isn’t all that unexpected.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]That said, Garza’s BABiP (.313) is up just a bit from his career avg (.289). But he’s a flyball pitcher in a hitter’s park, plus he’s a guy who throws a fuckload of strikes and he’s backed up by a pretty shit defense, so maybe that uptick isn’t all that unexpected.[/quote]
Yeah, missing up in the zone is really bad and Castro arguably screwed up by trying to barehand that ball Jordan Lyles rolled up the middle. A lot of the balls seem to have been scorched so far today.
Speaking of BABIP, nice play by Hunter Pence to take a hit away from Soto.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Yeah, missing up in the zone is really bad and Castro arguably screwed up by trying to barehand that ball Jordan Lyles rolled up the middle. A lot of the balls seem to have been scorched so far today.[/quote]I think Garza could really benefit a lot from throwing just a few less strikes. His control is pretty amazing, considering how hard he can throw, but I think he could stand to mix in a few more changeups and sliders that break out of the zone. Maybe he can make friends with Santana and learn that changeup. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]Speaking of BABIP, nice play by Hunter Pence to take a hit away from Soto.[/quote]The Astros would be insane not to try and move him while they can.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder] I think he could stand to mix in a few more changeups and sliders that break out of the zone.(dying laughing)[/quote]He must have been listening, MO. That was a beauty for strike 3 there.
[quote name=cwolf]He must have been listening, MO. That was a beauty for strike 3 there.[/quote][quote name=cwolf]He must have been listening, MO. That was a beauty for strike 3 there.[/quote]Yeah, I wonder if maybe Quade, Riggins or one of the pitchers (Dempster?) didn’t say something to him between innings.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]It will get ugly, ugly, ugly for this kid if he doesn’t pan out. It’ll probably get ugly anyway, because everyone thinks he’s the next A-Rod, when he’s probably more in Edgar Renteria/Carlos Guillen territory.[/quote]Renteria is a good comparison. An even better one in my opinion is Gary Templeton. Templeton was a little better through Castro’s age both offensively and defensively, but not much better. Neither had much power.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yeah, I wonder if maybe Quade, Riggins or one of the pitchers (Dempster?) didn’t say something to him between innings.[/quote]
Might have been something from Soto too. He and Garza seem to be on the same page according to Brenly.
Templeton’s ISO was a little higher and he tried to steal a lot more bases than Castro has.
I think it was Bryan Smith on Frangraphs who first compared Castro to Templeton during the spring training of 2010. Good call by Smith on that one.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]That said, Garza’s BABiP (.313) is up just a bit from his career avg (.289). But he’s a flyball pitcher in a hitter’s park, plus he’s a guy who throws a fuckload of strikes and he’s backed up by a pretty shit defense, so maybe that uptick isn’t all that unexpected.[/quote]Garza has become a ground ball pitcher. His GB/FB rate this year is over 1.5 He’s no longer the fly ball pitcher he once was.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]It will get ugly, ugly, ugly for this kid if he doesn’t pan out. It’ll probably get ugly anyway, because everyone thinks he’s the next A-Rod, when he’s probably more in Edgar Renteria/Carlos Guillen territory.[/quote]
I don’t think expectations are quite that high, MO. Expectations for Geo were pretty high too after 2008 but it’s not like fans are burning him in effigy.
I’d be a lot more worried if Castro came out the gate hitting 20 HRs in the first half of the season or something and everyone began thinking he was an ARod-like power hitter. He’s still a SS, with all of the assumptions included about what Kind Of Hitter a SS is.
[quote name=mb21]Garza has become a ground ball pitcher. His GB/FB rate this year is over 1.5 He’s no longer the fly ball pitcher he once was.[/quote]
I’m still baffled by the massive shift in those numbers.
I just looked at Templeton’s career numbers after MB’s Castro comparison. I was surprised since I thought he had better numbers than he did.
Jay Cutler ————–> dumped his fiancee
[quote name=Berselius]Jay Cutler ————–> dumped his fiancee[/quote]Bears fans will use this as yet another reason to hate him. Fuckwads.
[quote name=Berselius]I’m still baffled by the massive shift in those numbers.[/quote]He’s going to need that to hold, so long as he’s pitching in Wrigley.
[quote name=cwolf]I just looked at Templeton’s career numbers after MB’s Castro comparison. I was surprised since I thought he had better numbers than he did.[/quote]Templeton? I remember him when I was younger and thinking he was a really good player. I think it’s kind of like how some think Castro is a really good player. The .300 batting averages early in his career and being young I had no idea how useless that stat was. I think it’s much the same with Castro.
[quote name=Berselius]I don’t think expectations are quite that high, MO. Expectations for Geo were pretty high too after 2008 but it’s not like fans are burning him in effigy.
I’d be a lot more worried if Castro came out the gate hitting 20 HRs in the first half of the season or something and everyone began thinking he was an ARod-like power hitter. He’s still a SS, with all of the assumptions included about what Kind Of Hitter a SS is.[/quote]I tend to agree with MO here. I think it could be really ugly for Castro if he doesn’t live up to the fans expectations. Keep in mind these fans are expecting he’ll grow into some solid power. They already think he’s a subpar fielder, which is something that pisses fans off. It’s like Corey Patterson, b. Patterson never came up right away and hit a ton of home runs. He was just the guy that was going to become a superstar and lead the Cubs to 28 World Championships in a row.
GB/FB rate stabilizes rather quickly, I think.
[quote name=mb21]Templeton? I remember him when I was younger and thinking he was a really good player..[/quote]Same with me, MB. He did have some good years early on but never really developed into a star-caliber player.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
No three-game win streak for you!
[quote name=cwolf]Same with me, MB. He did have some good years early on but never really developed into a star-caliber player.[/quote]Castro has a better BB%, but I’m not sure how much better it is compared to league average (I’ll look into that). Both had very high BABIPs early in their career, which led to some very misleading numbers. Once the BABIP went down for Templeton, the stats fell off a cliff.
That brings up something someone with some time should look into. What happens to a player’s BABIP after a few seasons in which it’s very high? One player doesn’t prove anything, but through age 25, Templeton had a .341 BABIP. After that it was .285.
Quade assured himself team would not win 3 in a row..
How many wins has garza had blown?
[quote name=mb21]
That brings up something someone with some time should look into. What happens to a player’s BABIP after a few seasons in which it’s very high? One player doesn’t prove anything, but through age 25, Templeton had a .341 BABIP. After that it was .285.[/quote]
I think Derek Jeter comes to mind as a guy who has a consistently high BABIP. Dunno about anybody else but Jeter’s name always pops up when folks discuss batter BABIP.
BB% has been about the same since Templeton’s days so Castro does have a considerably better BB% than Templeton did through age 21.
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Quade assured himself team would not win 3 in a row..
How many wins has garza had blown?[/quote]
TheCCO
#Cubs pen blows the fifth game for Matt Garza this season … Carlos Marmol 3, Sean Marshall 1 and Jeff Samardzija 1
[quote name=mb21]Castro has a better BB%, but I’m not sure how much better it is compared to league average (I’ll look into that). Both had very high BABIPs early in their career, which led to some very misleading numbers. Once the BABIP went down for Templeton, the stats fell off a cliff.
That brings up something someone with some time should look into. What happens to a player’s BABIP after a few seasons in which it’s very high? One player doesn’t prove anything, but through age 25, Templeton had a .341 BABIP. After that it was .285.[/quote]I think it depends on the hitter and the hitting environment in which he plays the bulk of his games. I think there’s a lot more noise in BABiP than folks want to think.
I like the part where Soto is going opposite field today.
Fuckin’ Astros
It’s okay MB, I think Grabow is up next so there’s still time to lose (dying laughing)
btw, at least the ‘stros announcers agree with me that rodrigo is a dead ringer for maddux in terms of his delivery
[quote name=GW]btw, at least the ‘stros announcers agree with me that rodrigo is a dead ringer for maddux in terms of his delivery[/quote]I remember the first time you said that here. I think you just said something like he looks like Maddux. I was so confused. (dying laughing)
I’m really looking forward to Breaking Bad tonight.
[quote name=mb21]I remember the first time you said that here. I think you just said something like he looks like Maddux. I was so confused. (dying laughing)[/quote]
yeah, too lazy for clarity. but fearless in terms of interracial comparisons, so I have that going for me, (dying laughing).
What the fuck? You’re deep in the hole and you take your time?
[quote name=GW]yeah, too lazy for clarity. but fearless in terms of interracial comparisons, so I have that going for me, (dying laughing).[/quote]What made me laugh so much was that after I read your comment and just though you’re nuts, I watched a pitch and new exactly what you meant. It was quite clear to me what you meant at that point.
[quote name=Muckey]I’m really looking forward to Breaking Bad tonight.[/quote]Same here.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Campana…and the bullpen kinda just sat there with their thumbs up their asses.
[quote name=Rice Cube](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Campana…and the bullpen kinda just sat there with their thumbs up their asses.[/quote]That was pretty funny, RC although I’m not sure I can blame the Cubs bullpen too much though. They probably assumed Campana could field a waist high bounce successfully. I was also (dying laughing) at Campana’s throw. It was Little League-esque form.
I see our elite defensive replacement was on full display last inning.
Yeah, it was like a second or two after Campana kicked the ball into the bullpen but they were in “eek, a mouse!” mode (dying laughing)
That was actually very average speed.
ugh
Oh good, a hit-and-run with a low-contact hitter. I love those.
Of course, the one with Soto hitting “worked,” but it’s still a bad idea.
Nice gift triple there, Pence.
pence needs an astronomy lesson from quade
(dying laughing) @ IBBing Campana
Someone needs to explain the defensive indifference rule.
did he get a stolen base there?
[quote name=mb21]did he get a stolen base there?[/quote]
Nope. Winning run was on third base so I think that’s why. He wasn’t being held either, the 1B was right in front of Campana.
That Soto take with 2 strikes pissed me off. Good thing Bake came through against a righty to bail him out.
I mean, with a runner on third and no outs, the one thing not to do is strike out. There is no reason not to offer at a close pitch with 2 strikes. Dumb.
Of course the Astros were stupid for walking 2 people with the runner on third (such that a walk or hbp would drive the winning run home) and not playing the middle infielders at double play depth. Baseball managers suck.
3 in a row!!!!!
Now if we can jsut go nuts and win the next 20 we have a chance!!
They should’ve tried to get Campana to ground out to the pitcher.
Breaking Bad thread up on Unobstructed Views for tonight’s episode: http://www.obstructedview.net/unobstructed-views/general/breaking-bad-thirty-eight-snub.html
New Curb and entourage tonight. Bubbles is happy
[quote name=Rice Cube]They should’ve tried to get Campana to ground out to the pitcher.[/quote]The very idea of intentionally walking Campana really blows my mind.
[quote name=ACT]The very idea of intentionally walking Campana really blows my mind.[/quote]
The Astros out-Cubbed the Cubs.
[quote name=ACT]Of course the Astros were stupid for walking 2 people with the runner on third (such that a walk or hbp would drive the winning run home) …[/quote]Checking the Fangraphs play-by-play (with win probabilities), this decision wasn’t that bad. The 2 walks changed the win probability (for the Cubs) from 83.2 to 83.7%. Of course, that doesn’t take into account what a poor hitter Campana is.
…or the fact that the ‘Stros were unprepared for a double play.
Every now and then he can has defense.
Wang pitching for boise tn
Whoops.
[quote name=ACT]Checking the Fangraphs play-by-play (with win probabilities), this decision wasn’t that bad. The 2 walks changed the win probability (for the Cubs) from 83.2 to 83.7%. Of course, that doesn’t take into account what a poor hitter Campana is.[/quote]Yeah, winning run at 3rd, as long as you’re not walking guys to face the best hitter it’s not going to make much of a difference.
Not to mention they probably knew it was Jeff Baker who would pinch hit and he sucks ass vs rights. So while you do have to consider Campana’s batting, you also have to consider the batting of the eventual hitter (Baker).
The fact that the Astros didn’t have their infielders at double play depth still made them far worse off with the bases loaded, I think. The only reason it makes little difference whether the bases are loaded or not is that the possibility of the double play is sufficient to offset the risk of walking or hitting the batter to end the game.
They didn’t have their infielders at DP depth? Seriously? That’s a huge mistake on their part. Did the person positioning the infielders fall asleep or something?
[quote name=mb21]They didn’t have their infielders at DP depth? Seriously? That’s a huge mistake on their part. Did the person positioning the infielders fall asleep or something?[/quote]
Yeah, it was really surprising.
BJax homered. So did Beef Castle.
[quote name=mb21]They didn’t have their infielders at DP depth? Seriously? That’s a huge mistake on their part. Did the person positioning the infielders fall asleep or something?[/quote]Kasper and Brenly said the Astros did the same thing earlier in the series where they play entire infield in in that (or a similar) situation. It doesn’t seem like a very good idea.
[quote name=cwolf]Kasper and Brenly said the Astros did the same thing earlier in the series where they play entire infield in in that (or a similar) situation. It doesn’t seem like a very good idea.[/quote]
I thought the Astros did it ass-backwards that whole inning. When Byrd got to 3B with Soto up, they needed to decide right then whether they were going to load the bases or not. They got lucky because Soto took that strike three (he’s too patient for his own good sometimes). If there were bases loaded and no outs then it makes sense to play all in because you need to cut down the winning run at the plate, but with one out they should’ve played back to get the inning-ending DP. The Astros basically out-Quade’d Quade.
The Campana IBB was kinda dumb but since they were going to go bases loaded anyway (which I thought the Astros would do as soon as Byrd got to 3B) it really didn’t matter.
[quote name=mb21]They didn’t have their infielders at DP depth? Seriously? That’s a huge mistake on their part. Did the person positioning the infielders fall asleep or something?[/quote]They’re just trying to be competitive in the no. 1 draft pick race.
Brett Jackson’s successful sac bunt to get the pitcher into scoring position allowed the Cubs to cash in an insurance run…
I wouldn’t have bunted, but whatever.
By the way, I think this is my favorite comment on that BP thread that GW linked a couple days ago:
So much has been broken on BP for years now and while I liked Colin’s article, it was nothing more than a petty attack on Swartz.
The funny thing is now that SIERA is at Fangraphs, I’ll probably start using it most of the time. It is better. Not much better, but it is better. The BP stat pages are a fucking mess. I don’t read the articles at FG anymore, but their stats are still useful.
[quote name=ACT]They’re just trying to be competitive in the no. 1 draft pick race.[/quote]They about sealed it this weekend as they swept the Cubs. The Cubs are out of that race at this point.
[quote name=mb21]By the way, I think this is my favorite comment on that BP thread that GW linked a couple days ago:
So much has been broken on BP for years now and while I liked Colin’s article, it was nothing more than a petty attack on Swartz.
The funny thing is now that SIERA is at Fangraphs, I’ll probably start using it most of the time. It is better. Not much better, but it is better. The BP stat pages are a fucking mess. I don’t read the articles at FG anymore, but their stats are still useful.[/quote][quote name=mb21]By the way, I think this is my favorite comment on that BP thread that GW linked a couple days ago:
So much has been broken on BP for years now and while I liked Colin’s article, it was nothing more than a petty attack on Swartz.
The funny thing is now that SIERA is at Fangraphs, I’ll probably start using it most of the time. It is better. Not much better, but it is better. The BP stat pages are a fucking mess. I don’t read the articles at FG anymore, but their stats are still useful.[/quote]I do like how both Fangraphs and b-ref spell out where their WAR figures come from. With WARP, it’s kind of mysterious, though the numbers are similar (I’m less interested in the numbers than where they come from).
After watching the Cubs try to bunt a runner to third twice in that game and failing both times, I found myself starting to hate the bunt play.
Must have hit the quote link twice by mistake.
Wang pitching for Boise tonight. I’ll watch that one
[quote name=josh]After watching the Cubs try to bunt a runner to third twice in that game and failing both times, I found myself starting to hate the bunt play.[/quote]Bunting with runners on first and second and 1 out is terrible, even with Garza batting. With no outs, it’s not a bad idea, especially with Barney hitting (a weak hitter who bunts well and isn’t slow.) The fact that Soto was on second makes the bunt less appealing, though.
[quote name=ACT]I do like how both Fangraphs and b-ref spell out where their WAR figures come from. With WARP, it’s kind of mysterious, though the numbers are similar (I’m less interested in the numbers than where they come from).[/quote]WARP is and has been a black box. I’m sure it’s very similar and from what I remember when Colin reintroduced it, it was, but as you say, you get the components on FG and BR. You have to go to 30 different pages to do the same thing on BP.
[quote name=dylanj]Wang pitching for Boise tonight. I’ll watch that one[/quote]Those minor league feeds must be better than they ware a couple years ago. I bought milb.tv a couple years ago and after 30 minutes I realized I was wasting my time.
[quote name=ACT]Bunting with runners on first and second and 1 out is terrible, even with Garza batting. With no outs, it’s not a bad idea, especially with Barney hitting (a weak hitter who bunts well and isn’t slow.) The fact that Soto was on second makes the bunt less appealing, though.[/quote]You’re probably right. That’s why I’m not a manager. Decisions always look worse when they don’t work out, which they don’t 66% of the time even for a good team.
[quote name=ACT]Bunting with runners on first and second and 1 out is terrible, even with Garza batting. With no outs, it’s not a bad idea, especially with Barney hitting (a weak hitter who bunts well and isn’t slow.) The fact that Soto was on second makes the bunt less appealing, though.[/quote]
In both instances the pitcher made a very nice play to get the lead slow guy (Soto) at 3B, but the Cubs either had bad luck getting the bunts down the 3B line or just suck at bunting like they suck at just about everything else.
Did you ever blog about SIERA? I thought FanGraphs’ glossary would have it, or even wikipedia, but the only article I found off Google was from B-Pro so I guess I’m just asking where I should go to learn about this other than GW’s linked article.
Also lost the link and would prefer not to wade through the last 10000 comments to find it so if someone could post it again, that’d be cool (dying laughing)
Matt Swartz just reintroduced the statistic over at Fangraphs (used to be at BP) in a 5-spart series this past week: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php?author=6228
I wish FG would include kwERA (ERA estimated from K% and BB%). They could just throw tERA out to make room for it.
[quote name=GW]pence needs an astronomy lesson from quade[/quote](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Does anybody even use tERA? I’ve sometimes used tRA from Statcorner. I also wish they’d have all the stats on the scale of RA rather than ERA.
I’d definitely liked them to include kwERA (kwRA preferably) and and BsRA or BsR/9.
[quote name=Rice Cube]In both instances the pitcher made a very nice play to get the lead slow guy (Soto) at 3B, but the Cubs either had bad luck getting the bunts down the 3B line or just suck at bunting like they suck at just about everything else.[/quote]They weren’t good bunts (the went straight to the pitcher), but yeah, the pitcher won’t make the play all the time, and sometimes the pitcher will even throw the ball away leading to further advancement. It’s also worth noting that even though both bunts went wrong, the double play was avoided both time.
[quote name=mb21]
I’d definitely liked them to include kwERA (kwRA preferably) and and BsRA or BsR/9.[/quote]That and opposing wOBA. Its frustrating when I want to look up a pitcher’s handedness splits, and Fangraphs only has things like FIP. b-ref is much better for that kind of info, but they use OPS.
[quote name=ACT]That and opposing wOBA. Its frustrating when I want to look up a pitcher’s handedness splits, and Fangraphs only has things like FIP. b-ref is much better for that kind of info, but they use OPS.[/quote]I think berselius and I talked briefly one time about setting something up on ACB to have opponent wOBA update daily for pitchers. That, I think, is the one thing that Fangraphs should be adding before anything else. If I new anything about creating something to update regularly like the stats pages, I’d set it up myself on this server, but I have no clue. If anyone has any ideas or knows how, let me know.
Ah, there’s the Brett Jackson strikeout…
i really like this pitcher in Boise. Very impressive so far.
[quote name=mb21]I think berselius and I talked briefly one time about setting something up on ACB to have opponent wOBA update daily for pitchers. That, I think, is the one thing that Fangraphs should be adding before anything else. If I new anything about creating something to update regularly like the stats pages, I’d set it up myself on this server, but I have no clue. If anyone has any ideas or knows how, let me know.[/quote]Uh…..SQL server? Is there a database of stats that gets updated in realtime? /blind-leading-blind
New Pic of the Day: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/ov-pic-of-the-day-lost-ball-leads-to-third-win.html