The Cubs won three in a row! The Cubs won three in a row! The Cubs won three in a row! How the hell did that happen? Hunter Pence happened.
With the score tied at four in the bottom of the 10th inning, Marlon Byrd hit a ball to right and Pence zigged when he probably should have zagged. Byrd ended up on third base with nobody out. That set up Jeff Baker’s heroics.
(José M. Osorio, Chicago Tribune / July 24, 2011)
Thanks for that, Hunter.
He’ll have the last laugh when he’s traded to the future World Series Champs.
hoilman with a grand slam
[quote name=josh]He’ll have the last laugh when he’s traded to the future World Series Champs.[/quote]
I don’t even care. Hunter Pence annoys the fuck out of me more than any other player in the majors. That picture is just hilarious.
[quote name=Aisle424]I don’t even care. Hunter Pence annoys the fuck out of me more than any other player in the majors. That picture is just hilarious.[/quote]I agree. He’s a spaz.
[quote name=Aisle424]I don’t even care. Hunter Pence annoys the fuck out of me more than any other player in the majors. That picture is just hilarious.[/quote]
He’s got a name that makes you want to punch him in the face (dying laughing)
(dying laughing) @ Pence
Josh, do you have any idea how to accomplish what I was thinking? I’d be happy enough to crawl a site like Bref or grab the data from the updated day by day database. I just don’t have any idea how to get it to work so that it would regularly update on the web.
Wait, what? Swartz left BP?
Yeah, no idea why. I think the whole thing is kind of funny. I never really paid attention to SIERA after the original articles because BP’s stats suck. So I’m glad he left and took it with him to fangraphs.
[quote name=mb21]Matt Swartz just reintroduced the statistic over at Fangraphs (used to be at BP) in a 5-spart series this past week: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php?author=6228/quoteMatt Swartz has a very long reply to Colin Wyer’s article in multiple posts on The Book blog: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/siera_updated/#10
I thought Colin’s article was very well written, but i figure as long as it’s an improvement, it’s worth keeping. The reality is that few metrics are going to be able to be improved all that much at this point, but every bit counts.
[quote name=ACT]Matt Swartz has a very long reply to Colin Wyer’s article in multiple posts on The Book blog: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/siera_updated/#10/quote
Ah, I skipped the thread because I thought it was just a boring “let’s tinker with some regression coefficients” type piece.
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) @ Pence
Josh, do you have any idea how to accomplish what I was thinking? I’d be happy enough to crawl a site like Bref or grab the data from the updated day by day database. I just don’t have any idea how to get it to work so that it would regularly update on the web.[/quote]I really wish I had a good answer so I could quit my crappy job and make money as a web genius. I don’t know PHP well enough to give that answer, but PHP is all about using relational databases and generating realtime content (like on facebook), so I imagine if you could somehow import a database, or query it directly, then you could write php commands to generate the statistics you were after. As far as how you get that, I don’t know off the top of my head.
I found a WordPress plugin that calculates a team’s magic number daily. If that’s possible, then any given statistic must be.
[quote name=josh]I really wish I had a good answer so I could quit my crappy job and make money as a web genius. I don’t know PHP well enough to give that answer, but PHP is all about using relational databases and generating realtime content (like on facebook), so I imagine if you could somehow import a database, or query it directly, then you could write php commands to generate the statistics you were after. As far as how you get that, I don’t know off the top of my head.[/quote]It sounds like the hard part would be getting the data. The php part to calculate and display the information would be relatively easy.
Edit: I wasn’t paying 100% attention as to what you guys wanted to display.
[quote name=cwolf]It sounds like the hard part would be getting the data. The php part to calculate and display the information would be relatively easy.
Edit: I wasn’t paying 100% attention as to what you guys wanted to display.[/quote]Actually, I wasn’t either.
[quote name=josh]Actually, I wasn’t either.[/quote]I guess we both Cubbed it then. (dying laughing)
It definitely speaks to my bias, but I’m firmly in Colin’s camp on this one. SIERA is exactly what I would expect from an econometrician, and gets to the core of everything that bugs me about the social sciences in general. (Though I love pretty much everything that pizza cutter has ever done).
Colin’s points were well made, imo (and I could really care less about all the personal stuff). In short:
1. If you want an indication of how well a pitcher will perform in the future, you should use an ROS projection, and not waste time with an ERA shortcut.
2. If you are interested in apportioning credit, the burden of proof well beyond what Swartz has done to this point. WOWY is about the best one can do, but Pizza Cutter had a some interesting work on a shortcut a couple years ago (I’ll see if I can find it). What you really need are randomized experiments. Instead we have been given this monstrosity of a regression, and from all indications, the coefficients are not at all robust, and will be changed simply to fit the data year after year.
[quote name=cwolf]It sounds like the hard part would be getting the data. The php part to calculate and display the information would be relatively easy.
Edit: I wasn’t paying 100% attention as to what you guys wanted to display.[/quote]But I agree. Someone you’d need either a website that generated the data in a way that was usable to a php call, or you’d have to create such a site and update it daily by hand, and this website would just display the calculations, saving that step. Maybe there’s someone out there who is making raw data available in a usable way.
Examining this magic number plugin, basically the author has used a site called mlbmagicnumbers.com, which is compiling the numbers, and he’s just using php to display it in a convenient way in a wordpress widget. I still don’t get all the details, but he’s basically requisitioning someone else’s work (although, for all I know, he is the author of mlbmagicnumbers.com too).
Incidentally, the Cubs magic number is 74.
(dying laughing)
[quote name=Colin Wyers]I developed a new ERA estimator: 1*ERA+0. The r-squared is fucking fantastic.[/quote]
Looks like javascript may also be involved. Shit, I’m in way over my head on this one.
B-Ref blog post that I found very interesting:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/13368
The Red Sox are good at baseball, at least offense-wise.
Ellsbury and Pedroia are already at their career highs.
http://walksaber.blogspot.com/2011/07/saying-nothing-about-era-estimators.html
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_07_24_houmlb_chnmlb_1&mode=video
I think Matt’s delayed reaction before running out of the batter’s box is funny.
Huh, that link goes to the wrong video. Here’s what I was referring to: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17229671
Have you foggots missed me?
[quote name=fonteYES]Have you foggots missed me?[/quote]You were only gone because you were unlucky. So, no.
[quote name=GW]It definitely speaks to my bias, but I’m firmly in Colin’s camp on this one. SIERA is exactly what I would expect from an econometrician, and gets to the core of everything that bugs me about the social sciences in general. (Though I love pretty much everything that pizza cutter has ever done).
Colin’s points were well made, imo (and I could really care less about all the personal stuff). In short:
1. If you want an indication of how well a pitcher will perform in the future, you should use an ROS projection, and not waste time with an ERA shortcut.
2. If you are interested in apportioning credit, the burden of proof well beyond what Swartz has done to this point. WOWY is about the best one can do, but Pizza Cutter had a some interesting work on a shortcut a couple years ago (I’ll see if I can find it). What you really need are randomized experiments. Instead we have been given this monstrosity of a regression, and from all indications, the coefficients are not at all robust, and will be changed simply to fit the data year after year.[/quote]So the issue with siera’s, or one of the issues, is that there is litter stability for the calcuation on a year to year basis? Given what we know about sample size, wouldn’t this kil the predictive value of the stat?
Or am i missing something?
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]You were only gone because you were unlucky. So, no.[/quote]You look tired.
[quote name=GW]It definitely speaks to my bias, but I’m firmly in Colin’s camp on this one. SIERA is exactly what I would expect from an econometrician, and gets to the core of everything that bugs me about the social sciences in general. (Though I love pretty much everything that pizza cutter has ever done).
Colin’s points were well made, imo (and I could really care less about all the personal stuff). In short:
1. If you want an indication of how well a pitcher will perform in the future, you should use an ROS projection, and not waste time with an ERA shortcut.
2. If you are interested in apportioning credit, the burden of proof well beyond what Swartz has done to this point. WOWY is about the best one can do, but Pizza Cutter had a some interesting work on a shortcut a couple years ago (I’ll see if I can find it). What you really need are randomized experiments. Instead we have been given this monstrosity of a regression, and from all indications, the coefficients are not at all robust, and will be changed simply to fit the data year after year.[/quote]THIS. SIERA is overdone FIP.
[quote name=fonteYES]You look tired.[/quote]This is the worst thing every done on this blog.
[quote name=fonteYES]Have you foggots missed me?[/quote]We’ve been waiting for Dick Cheese to come back, but this is a nice consolation prize I suppose.
FY is such a fair weather fan, the Cubs win three in a row and he magically returns. (dying laughing)
I can only see the first frame of the last gif, but I am thoroughly intrigued.
I don’t disagree with that at all, but if you want an idea how well a pitcher has pitched independent of his defense you need an ERA estimator. It doesn’t particularly matter whether or not you look at FIP, SIERA, xFIP, tRA or BsR9. It makes no sense for BP to get rid of SIERA and replace it with FIP, which isn’t as good. I don’t care about the complexity of it. I’ve never once found myself thinking at a ballgame, what’s this guy’s FIP today? I’ve never even thought about that at home. Sure, I could calculate it in my head, but a situation in which I’ve wanted to do so has not arisen. I can’t imagine one will.
Using complexity as a reason to get rid of it is, in my opinion, dishonest. I don’t believe for a moment that’s why BP got rid of it. I don’t believe they intended to get rid of it either. I believe the only reason they got rid of it was because someone took their ball and left. I also believe that the way the article was written it pretty much confirms this.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]THIS. SIERA is overdone FIP.[/quote]FIP is overdone ERA. That’s the point here. All of these are overdone.
I finally get my NFL Draft methadone.
Dave Cameron ————> leukemia
dj, here are the UDFA guys SF needs to target:
Adam Froman, QB, Louisville
DeAndre Brown, WR, Southern Miss
Jake Kirkpatrick, C, TCU
Ian Williams, NT, Notre Dame
Mark Herzlich, LB, BC
Thomas Keiser, OLB, Stanford
Kendrick Burney, CB, UNC
Jeron Johnson, S, BSU
http://www.deadline.com/2011/07/2011-comic-con-sneak-peak-at-mtvs-new-beavis-and-butt-head/
[quote name=Jame Gumb]http://www.deadline.com/2011/07/2011-comic-con-sneak-peak-at-mtvs-new-beavis-and-butt-head/[/quote]
“If you do that chart long enough, you can see where herpes began.”
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
You Bears fans should be happy about your cap figure.
[quote name=Aisle424]“If you do that chart long enough, you can see where herpes began.”
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)[/quote]
That’s how she answes the phone.
[quote name=GBTS]I can only see the first frame of the last gif, but I am thoroughly intrigued.[/quote]
It’s quite naughty.
[quote name=Jame Gumb]That’s how she answes the phone.[/quote]
That is literally the longest I have ever seen the Jersey Shore, and now I’ll never want to see it without Beavis and Butthead commentating.
fuck the bears. between the 49ers “tampering” and the shit they pulled in this years draft the Bears should be sent to the CFL
[quote name=Aisle424]That is literally the longest I have ever seen the Jersey Shore, and now I’ll never want to see it without Beavis and Butthead commentating.[/quote]
I’d prefer to not see anything without Beavis and Butthead commentating.
[quote name=dylanj]fuck the bears. between the 49ers “tampering” and the shit they pulled in this years draft the Bears should be sent to the CFL[/quote]
I agree, but you have to know your audience.
i would enjoy a G to replace Rachal and a CB
[quote name=Jame Gumb]I agree, but you have to know your audience.[/quote]
ah fuck all these chicago guys
I’d like to bring in as many of the above UDFAs as possible, sign Ike Taylor, bring in a WR like Michael Clayton or Sims-Walker and a Shaun Ellis-type player.
Also, I’m thinking Anthony Davis is a guard in the long run. I’d like to see what Alex Boone can do, but start looking at OTs.
I really hate what SF has done in the first round since they took Willis/Staley in 2007. I’m still pissed about Crabtree over Orakpo and I didn’t like Davis in 2009. I’m on board with Aldon Smith, though.
[quote name=dylanj]ah fuck all these chicago guys[/quote]
Yeah, with my Longhorns/Rangers/Niners fandom, why am I here?
Pulling the plug on Davis after a year? Nah, I think that kids going to be really good. Remember that GB game where he dominated Clay Matthews
[quote name=dylanj]Pulling the plug on Davis after a year? Nah, I think that kids going to be really good. Remember that GB game where he dominated Clay Matthews[/quote]
I wasn’t really sold on him at the time of the draft. I actually liked Bulaga, Charles Brown and Veldheer better, plus they were better values. They invested a high first in him, so they should keep him at OT as long as possible, but I’m not optimistic.
I really liked Iupati, but I wasn’t keen on investing such a high pick on a guard, when I thought we could get comparable players in the second.
[quote name=dylanj]Remember that GB game where he dominated Clay Matthews[/quote]
Brett from Bleacher Nation:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2011/07/25/rumor-chicago-cubs-are-on-the-verge-of-signing-a-number-of-draft-picks/
*fap fap fap*
Just because
[quote name=Rice Cube]Brett from Bleacher Nation:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2011/07/25/rumor-chicago-cubs-are-on-the-verge-of-signing-a-number-of-draft-picks/
*fap fap fap*[/quote]
Wow, I thought Dunston was a lock to go to college.
[quote name=dylanj]ah fuck all these chicago guys[/quote]
Agreed
[quote name=Rice Cube]Brett from Bleacher Nation:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2011/07/25/rumor-chicago-cubs-are-on-the-verge-of-signing-a-number-of-draft-picks/
*fap fap fap*[/quote]Wow, I hope that’s true. Has anyone heard anything on Baez yet?
BN says it’s just a rumor, but it’s certainly a nice rumor.
[quote name=Rice Cube]BN says it’s just a rumor, but it’s certainly a nice rumor.[/quote]
It’s not a rumor, they have a source
Dillon Maples seemed a lock to go to college. That would be huge if they signed him.
[quote name=ACT]Wow, I hope that’s true. Has anyone heard anything on Baez yet?[/quote]
Distinctive vocal style with a strong vibrato. Her recordings include many topical songs and material dealing with social issues.
[quote name=mb21]Dillon Maples seemed a lock to go to college. That would be huge if they signed him.[/quote]
Maybe they did throw Samardzija money at him.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Maybe they did throw Carlos Silva’s money at him.[/quote]
.
[quote name=Berselius].[/quote]
I think Carlos Silva ate the bank before they could get the cash out…
If you think about how far Carlos Silva’s money has gone, you can’t help but be impressed with how frugal the front office is.
[quote name=mb21]If you think about how far Carlos Silva’s money has gone, you can’t help but be impressed with how frugal the front office is.[/quote]
Bernie Madoff was secretly hired as the new CFO
awhile back we were arguing about the percent of Wrigley patrons that are tourists. IIRC, I think Al was saying it was something like 100% except for him. Well, the Cubs figured it out themselves, and its 37%:
http://chicagoist.com/2011/07/25/cubs_numbers_confirm_37_percent_of.php
assuming the rumor is true and we land baez that is a ridiculous draft class
how does the 37% compare to other teams? If I go to San Diego as a tourist, I might go to a ballgame. In fact, that’s exactly what I did when I went to San Diego. I would assume a lot of people in attendance at any ballgame are tourists.
[quote name=mb21]how does the 37% compare to other teams? If I go to San Diego as a tourist, I might go to a ballgame. In fact, that’s exactly what I did when I went to San Diego. I would assume a lot of people in attendance at any ballgame are tourists.[/quote]don’t know, but the article links to another that says the White Sox is 10-15% tourists
[quote name=mb21]how does the 37% compare to other teams? If I go to San Diego as a tourist, I might go to a ballgame. In fact, that’s exactly what I did when I went to San Diego. I would assume a lot of people in attendance at any ballgame are tourists.[/quote]
Too lazy to read the article, but I wonder if they grabbed tourists-with-locals. For example, if you have people visiting and you take them to a game that you wouldn’t have gone to otherwise. I would bet that’s a siginificant percentage of tickets too
[quote name=Berselius]Too lazy to read the article, but I wonder if they grabbed tourists-with-locals. For example, if you have people visiting and you take them to a game that you wouldn’t have gone to otherwise. I would bet that’s a siginificant percentage of tickets too[/quote]the metric was just people who do not live in Illinois. I’m sure many are tourists-with-locals
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]don’t know, but the article links to another that says the White Sox is 10-15% tourists[/quote]The next question is how does it compare to teams with a similarly sized fan base as the Cubs? I imagine the Yankees are even higher. Same with the Dodgers.
The question after that is this: how much impact would a new ballpark have on the number of tourists attending ballgames? It’s not going to go to 0%. It will be much higher than what the White Sox have since they have a much larger fan base.
New slap-in-the-face up: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/cubs-2011-the-revenge.html
[quote name=mb21]The next question is how does it compare to teams with a similarly sized fan base as the Cubs? I imagine the Yankees are even higher. Same with the Dodgers.
The question after that is this: how much impact would a new ballpark have on the number of tourists attending ballgames? It’s not going to go to 0%. It will be much higher than what the White Sox have since they have a much larger fan base.[/quote]
I assume Obstructed View has a number of interns who can look into this (dying laughing)
Cliff Lee is getting hammered by the Padres. Denorfia stole home on a pickoff play to first.