OV Pic of the Day: Joey Haz a Sad

The “seven in a row bitch” tag amuses me.

[quote name=Rice Cube]The “seven in a row bitch” tag amuses me.[/quote]Only 16 more to go before the magical .500 mark.

Cubs have won 7 in a row and the Pirates are on their way to their 9th straight loss and the Cubs will still be 6 games behind them.

[quote name=Aisle424]Cubs have won 7 in a row and the Pirates are on their way to their 9th straight loss and the Cubs will still be 6 games behind them.[/quote]Maybe this is what Ricketts means by “in contention.” Remember, no one’s been specific about what they’re in contention for.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Maybe this is what Ricketts means by “in contention.” Remember, no one’s been specific about what they’re in contention for.[/quote](dying laughing)

The Cubs knocked the Pirates out of contention and are now doing the same the Reds. I kind of like playing spoiler. Who do we get to knock off next?

[quote name=mb21]The Cubs knocked the Pirates out of contention and are now doing the same the Reds. I kind of like playing spoiler. Who do we get to knock off next?[/quote]Luca Brasi.

[quote name=ACT]The Pirates are officially done now. It was a wild trip while it lasted, though.[/quote]I have a feeling that the Cubs will do in the second half what the Pirates have done in the first half and that the Cubs will respond to this in an equally rash manner.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I have a feeling that the Cubs will do in the second half what the Pirates have done in the first half and that the Cubs will respond to this in an equally rash manner.[/quote]
The Pirates weren’t exactly rash though as they picked up Lee and Ludwick in exchange for scraps. I actually liked that.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Meh. They exchanged scraps for scraps. And the Cubs will choose to just hold on to their scraps.[/quote]
Would be interesting to see how many Cubs besides Zambrano were put on waivers…what I liked was that the Pirates didn’t do anything too crazy to hurt their future development. As for the Cubs, still don’t really know what their plan is so who knows why they held on to everyone.

[quote name=Rice Cube]Would be interesting to see how many Cubs besides Zambrano were put on waivers…what I liked was that the Pirates didn’t do anything too crazy to hurt their future development. As for the Cubs, still don’t really know what their plan is so who knows why they held on to everyone.[/quote]I bet the Cubs put almost everyone on waivers. Most teams do. If anyone claims Soriano, I bet the Cubs just let them have him, too.

[quote name=ACT]http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/pirates-acquire-lee-ludwick-to-bolster-2ndhalf-col,21073/[/quote]Yes!

[quote name=Rice Cube]That’s a really big if.[/quote]Indeed. But someone claimed Rios off waivers, so I guess anything is possible.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Indeed. But someone claimed Rios off waivers, so I guess anything is possible.[/quote]Yeah, but it was the White Sox.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]They do need a LF…[/quote]Adam Dunn can play left field!

[quote name=Rice Cube]Correct.[/quote]Well, as long as he doesn’t hurt his back on the way out.

The Braves currently have an 80% chance of making the playoffs (before today, anyway). The Cardinals are about 30%. The Cubs should have a much better chance of knocking the Cards out.

I’m rooting for a sweep of the Cards either way.

[quote name=Berselius]http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/6839415/colorado-rockies-pitcher-juan-nicasio-neck-surgery-hit

Whoa. Glad to see things are looking okay so far[/quote]Damn.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Jeebus. Al is a menace when it comes to unnecessary punctuation and tortured syntax:
[/quote]That’s, just horrible writing, – even by Yellon, standards -.

As far as the SRO crowd, it was a beautiful day in Chicago. I didn’t go to the game but watching baseball on a nice summer day isn’t a bad thing to do. I’m not a big Ricketts fan but I like to see them drawing well mainly for the sake of next year’s budget.

God he’s an idiot. The Cubs are league average with RISP. When will people understand that fact and quit bitching?

[quote name=Doogolas]God he’s an idiot. The Cubs are league average with RISP. When will people understand that fact and quit bitching?[/quote]Never. Because they want to believe this is a problem of skill and not a problem of talent. People like Yellon want to believe that if the current group of players did the “right” things the “right” way, then they’d be the Yankees. Because admitting otherwise would force Al to accept that he spilled several thousand dollars on a terribly mediocre roster that the current FO sees no need to improve. So the problem gets articulated as “they just aren’t performing skill x at a level commensurate to their talent level” instead of “these players are painfully average and if we expect above-average performance, we should expect the team to acquire above-average players.” I’m beginning to think that a large part of the frustration displayed at Wrigley on most days is simply the vocalization of people who have been expecting above-average play out of average players for decades.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Never. Because they want to believe this is a problem of skill and not a problem of talent. People like Yellon want to believe that if the current group of players did the “right” things the “right” way, then they’d be the Yankees. Because admitting otherwise would force Al to accept that he spilled several thousand dollars on a terribly mediocre roster that the current FO sees no need to improve.[/quote]Pff. Darwin Barney is just as good as Robinson Cano. Cano is just lucky.

That’s not true at all. Until we see what decisions are actually made this offseason there is no possible way to know what is the driving force behind any success we have.

Furthermore, for all the failings at the MLB level, Ricketts is dropping a SHITLOAD of money into the draft. From the reports out there we’re pretty much going to sign everybody that we could possibly want except maybe Maples, but he’s not because of the money, he just is very strongly committed to going to school.

Just because the MLB team hasn’t been good doesn’t mean everything the Rickett’s have done has been stupid. They are also building a huge state of the art facility somewhere, I believe the DR and have spent a metric crapton on amateur signees both in Asia and Latin America.

Rickett’s definitely has his faults. But by the end of this year we very well may outspend everyone when you combine undrafted amateurs and the draft. Cause we’re spending out the ass in those areas.

[quote name=Doogolas]That’s not true at all. Until we see what decisions are actually made this offseason there is no possible way to know what is the driving force behind any success we have.

Furthermore, for all the failings at the MLB level, Ricketts is dropping a SHITLOAD of money into the draft. From the reports out there we’re pretty much going to sign everybody that we could possibly want except maybe Maples, but he’s not because of the money, he just is very strongly committed to going to school.

Just because the MLB team hasn’t been good doesn’t mean everything the Rickett’s have done has been stupid. They are also building a huge state of the art facility somewhere, I believe the DR and have spent a metric crapton on amateur signees both in Asia and Latin America.

Rickett’s definitely has his faults. But by the end of this year we very well may outspend everyone when you combine undrafted amateurs and the draft. Cause we’re spending out the ass in those areas.[/quote]But the personnel moves at the MLB level since July of 2009 (when Ricketts is supposed to have assumed de facto control of the org) have been stultifying, to say the least.

There are good signs at the minor league level, for sure, though, and I’m happy to see Ricketts following through on that promise.

That facility is in the DR, BTW.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]But the personnel moves at the MLB level since July of 2009 (when Ricketts is supposed to have assumed de facto control of the org) have been stultifying, to say the least.

There are good signs at the minor league level, for sure, though, and I’m happy to see Ricketts following through on that promise.

That facility is in the DR, BTW.[/quote]

What personnel moves have been that stupifying? We moved Lee and Lilly last year for some value. That was pretty smart since they weren’t gonna get us any kind of compensation. And, honestly, I don’t think Rickett’s can be expected to have really had anything to do with anything that happened when he immediately took over in 2009. He was probably just gonna let Hendry/Maddux do whatever they wanted.

We moved Fukudome this year, who is absolutely not gonna get us comp and we got a pretty nice high upside guy out of it.

Is it not moving Pena? Who could net us a Type-B this year (likely will actually) while there was almost no chance we were going to get close to a sandwich pick type of talent back in a trade?

Is it not moving Baker or Johnson? Both of them are nice, cheap bench bats. We have to get them somewhere, and honestly, they weren’t going to net us anything at all on the open market realistically. Everybody is always saying that Cub fans overvalue their prospects, yet people honestly expected any kind of return on either of those two, or for that matter Darwin Barney?

Ramirez didn’t want to be moved and had a no trade clause. Not much we could do there.

Byrd, if he plays even close to the level he’s been playing at the last 5 years will be a lock for Type-B and if he plays as well as he has this year (not super likely but not impossible) he could even sneak into Type-A status. So you have to get a huge return for him and his outrageously amazing contract.

Zambrano was going to require sending away Marmol with him. Nobody was willing to touch Soriano.

I just don’t get what people wanted the team to do. Really they moved the only completely logical player to move.

I know people want to see some changes, I do too. But making moves just to make them is a terrible, terrible way to accomplish anything.

[quote name=Doogolas]What personnel moves have been that stupifying? We moved Lee and Lilly last year for some value. That was pretty smart since they weren’t gonna get us any kind of compensation. And, honestly, I don’t think Rickett’s can be expected to have really had anything to do with anything that happened when he immediately took over in 2009. He was probably just gonna let Hendry/Maddux do whatever they wanted.

We moved Fukudome this year, who is absolutely not gonna get us comp and we got a pretty nice high upside guy out of it.

Is it not moving Pena? Who could net us a Type-B this year (likely will actually) while there was almost no chance we were going to get close to a sandwich pick type of talent back in a trade?

Is it not moving Baker or Johnson? Both of them are nice, cheap bench bats. We have to get them somewhere, and honestly, they weren’t going to net us anything at all on the open market realistically. Everybody is always saying that Cub fans overvalue their prospects, yet people honestly expected any kind of return on either of those two, or for that matter Darwin Barney?

Ramirez didn’t want to be moved and had a no trade clause. Not much we could do there.

Byrd, if he plays even close to the level he’s been playing at the last 5 years will be a lock for Type-B and if he plays as well as he has this year (not super likely but not impossible) he could even sneak into Type-A status. So you have to get a huge return for him and his outrageously amazing contract.

Zambrano was going to require sending away Marmol with him. Nobody was willing to touch Soriano.

I just don’t get what people wanted the team to do. Really they moved the only completely logical player to move.

I know people want to see some changes, I do too. But making moves just to make them is a terrible, terrible way to accomplish anything.[/quote]What the fuck is this “we”? Do you have a fucking mouse in your pocket?

The handling of Gregg and Harden was foolish. Sure, it panned out, but hindsight is always 20-20.

The handling of the whole Bradley affair was fucking amateur hour, on all sides.

Sending Z to the pen was inexcusable.

Last year’s draft was a traveshamockery.

Yes, Hendry was able to move Lee, Bradley and Fukudome, and perhaps Ricketts is letting Hendry do whatever he wants, and Hendry is the true author of this rudderless mess. I’m not sure.

What I do know is this looks like an org with no direction, or at least it did until a few weeks ago, when the Cubs had a good draft and then unveiled the new facility in the DR and started splashing cash on Carribean talent. That’s literally the only thing that Ricketts has done that’s given me a glimmer of hope. The rest of it has been 3 hamfisted attempts at public funds for Wrigley, one embarrassing statue ceremony, and a lot palavering about troughs and the glory of the crumbling Wrigley Field. So pardon me if I’m not inspired by the baseball acumen of this person:

[quote name=Aisle424]That is the one positive sign, but seeing as Wilken has completely underwhelmed me with his choices so far in his tenure and we still can’t seem to develop talent to save our lives, I’ll belive it when some of this talent we are signing for above slot actually starts turning into something that could conceivably help the Cubs in reality.

The Cubs could have had their cake and eaten it too as they have been trying to do, but they spent too much money on their new toy and that has handcuffed them more than any no trade clause has. When someone who is supposedly a businessman fucks up a transaction as badly as this has been fucked up from the start, then I have a hard time seeing anything turning out well.[/quote]
I think you’re a bit too hard on our prospects really though too. I mean, Simpson lost a shitload of weight and has only had his good stuff a couple times all season. This year was basically lost when he had that completely insane bout of Mono.

Szczur is moving along really well. He’s struggling a tad at A+ ball right now, but he can turn that around with a couple decent games and just came back from a finger injury.

B-Jax also suffered a finger injury a while back. He was destroying AA before then, came back, sucked for a while, and seems to have gotten his mojo back lately after struggling early in AAA.

McNutt has had blister issues all year and also hasn’t had his good stuff very often. On top of that there have been at least four games where his starts were interrupted from rain and suspended, so that’s a large part of the reason for his tiny amount of innings. He struck out 7.5/9 in AA last year. There’s no reason to think that fully healthy he’s only gonna strikeout the 5.7 he has so far this year.

Vitters has been 21 all year in AA and is more than holding his own. His OPS is chilling at a solid .776, obviously there will be a lot riding on if he can expand on the power he’s shown so far and do a bit better with walking, but he really hasn’t been that bad. People just expect an insane amount of him because of where he was drafted. He’s far from a bust right now, not everyone can be Starlin Castro. I mean, hell, B-Jax is a full year older than Vitters.

Junior Lake had a really nice year down in Daytona and has struggled in AA but it’s still a pretty small sample and he’s still only 21 years, he’s a baby.

I mean, no, none of them may be superstars. But at the same time any of them could put it together and be a great player too. There’s no reason to be so horribly pessimistic about the years people have had.

Hayden Simpson must have had the worst case of mono in recorded human history.

I mean, no, none of them may be superstars.

Exactly. Why the fuck not? This is a major market team and we still have to go back to Mark Fucking Grace for a prospect that had any longevity as a productive player and Grace wasn’t even that great. He was very good.

Hell, the last starter the Cubs turned out was Zambrano. That was 8 years ago. Nothing in the minors makes me think any of those streaks are going to be broken any time soon. It’s a fucking embarassment and Hendry is signing a useless closer to a three year deal for public relations purposes.

BTW, Jackson has really started ripping at AAA in the alst 2 weeks. I can’t wait to see him called up.

[quote name=Aisle424]Exactly. Why the fuck not? This is a major market team and we still have to go back to Mark Fucking Grace for a prospect that had any longevity as a productive player and Grace wasn’t even that great. He was very good.

Hell, the last starter the Cubs turned out was Zambrano. That was 8 years ago. Nothing in the minors makes me think any of those streaks are going to be broken any time soon. It’s a fucking embarassment and Hendry is signing a useless closer to a three year deal for public relations purposes.[/quote]
Castro has come up. B-Jax could very well be awesome. So could any of those other guys I even listed. There is always luck involved with prospects.

And while none of them MAY end up superstars. Any single one of them could.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Jackson’s going to have find a way to cut down on the K’s to be anything more than a good-very good player.[/quote]
Depends on what you consider a good player. He could be Colby Rasmus with better defense. Which would be a very, very good player.

[quote name=Doogolas]Depends on what you consider a good player. He could be Colby Rasmus with better defense. Which would be a very, very good player.[/quote]In 1776 MiLB PA, Rasmus K’d in 20% of his PA. Jackson has K’d in 23% of his 1221 PA. That’s a higher K% than Colvin, and Colvin’s jumped ~7% in the majors My closest comp to Jackson is Curtis Granderson, and even he only K’d in 18% of his MiLB PA, and that jumped to 27% at the ML level. I don’t think it will torpedo Jackson’s shot. He’s certainly got excellent contact skills. But his K-Rate is going to be a problem at the MLB level.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]In 1776 MiLB PA, Rasmus K’d in 20% of his PA. Jackson has K’d in 23% of his 1221 PA. That’s a higher K% than Colvin, and Colvin’s jumped ~7% in the majors My closest comp to Jackson is Curtis Granderson, and even he only K’d in 18% of his MiLB PA, and that jumped to 27% at the ML level. I don’t think it will torpedo Jackson’s shot. He’s certainly got excellent contact skills. But his K-Rate is going to be a problem at the MLB level.[/quote]
I read on fangraphs the other day that as a general rule K-rate jumps about 3% on average. I figure Jackson will K around 25% to 26%. I mean, look at Rasmus this year, down to 20% on that K-Rate. Which is much more what you expect out of a guy with that sort of K-Rate in the MiLB.

I think he can hit something like .260/.355/.450 or so.

I don’t think he’ll do that kind of power next year. But I think in a few years he will. I figure next year he’ll be something closer to .260/.350/.420 or so with average to + defense in CF. Which is probably near a 2WAR player? I don’t really know, mostly just guessing.

[quote name=Doogolas]I read on fangraphs the other day that as a general rule K-rate jumps about 3% on average. I figure Jackson will K around 25% to 26%. I mean, look at Rasmus this year, down to 20% on that K-Rate. Which is much more what you expect out of a guy with that sort of K-Rate in the MiLB.

I think he can hit something like .260/.355/.450 or so.

I don’t think he’ll do that kind of power next year. But I think in a few years he will. I figure next year he’ll be something closer to .260/.350/.420 or so with average to + defense in CF. Which is probably near a 2WAR player? I don’t really know, mostly just guessing.[/quote]As a general rule, yes. But players with similar skill sets and MiLB rates to Jackson’s have seen larger jumps, and even 25% would be pretty bad. I think he could put up a line similar to the one you’ve posted, but I think with a reduction in his K’s, he could put up some really, really good numbers. He’s got very good contact skills, decent pop, and good speed. If he can cut down the Ks and keep walking at the rate at which he has, the Cubs have a really nice player there.

I know some of you are Royals fans, so this might be exciting:

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17704645

Carlos Zambrano: .333/.364/.524
Albert Pujols: .280/.346/.530

Of course, Z might have trouble sustaining his .444 BABIP.

A-Rod —-> no suspension over lame poker accusations

[quote name=Berselius]A-Rod —-> no suspension over lame poker accusations[/quote]Good. Saves me from being pissed off. That whole thing was a joke. Like the MLB Lawyer said back in 2005, they have no right to tell him he can’t play in those poker games, he’s not doing anything illegal and he’s not violating the morals clause. in short, he literally did nothing wrong. Not in 2005 and not now. I think it’s the same thing as telling players they have to tuck their shirts in other than when they aren’t at bat.

[quote name=mb21]Doogolas is one optimistic person. Nothing wrong with that, but you’re not going to get people to jump on the bandwagon when everything is about this guy could be good, this guy could be really really good and this guy could be awesome.[/quote]I’m not always like that, for one thing, I love to discuss stuff, so I play Devil’s Advocate all the time. A lot of people here have what I consider to be a very pessimistic outlook on just about everybody. I’m not trying to get anybody on board, I appreciate the discussion, it’s fun and interesting. I don’t even necessarily think you guys are wrong when I’m making these arguments, I’m just kind of pointing out that there’s another side to the coin. Sure, if the approach of “All our prospects aren’t going to be more than mediocre” that’s going to be right 90% of the time, but that goes for all teams. Now, in the last 20 years or so, yeah, it’s been really bad for us, but I can see it turning around with one of our guys.

Also, about B-Jax, two things:
1) No, contact skill is not the ability to not strike out. Brett Jackson is very patient, he works counts deep and because of that it often will only take him one swing and miss for him to strike out.

2) Yeah, if he is able to lower his contact rate to say, 20%, he could be an absolutely outstanding player, like pre-injury Grady Sizemore good. But even more realistically I think he’ll be damn good, putting up between 4WAR and 5WAR in his prime years.

Even if jackson lowers his K-rate he’s not going to be a great player. He’s had some nice numbers in the minors, but things are more difficult at the big league level. Let’s not set him up for failure by expecting too much out of him. You don’t have to be a great player to be valuable. Starlin Castro isn’t a great player and likely never will be, but he’s a very valuable ballplayer. I think Jackson, if he reaches his ceiling, can be better than Castro, which is just a really good player. I think he can make a couple all-star games in his career, but let’s not go overboard.

Also, just because someone doesn’t see the brightest sides of everything doesn’t mean they’re pessimistic. Saying that Brett Jackson isn’t a great player and probably never will be isn’t pessimistic. It’s realism. Saying the same for Starlin Castro isn’t pessimistic. It’s only pessimistic if you think he has to be so good or he’s a failure. I don’t. I never have. I never will. He makes league minimum and is still a good ballplayer. rWAR doesn’t like him, but I think he’s somewhere in between rWAR and fWAR. About average. Let’s just go with that. He’s 21 and should improve, but players don’t typically improve by as much as you’re suggesting.

[quote name=mb21]Even if jackson lowers his K-rate he’s not going to be a great player. He’s had some nice numbers in the minors, but things are more difficult at the big league level. Let’s not set him up for failure by expecting too much out of him. You don’t have to be a great player to be valuable. Starlin Castro isn’t a great player and likely never will be, but he’s a very valuable ballplayer. I think Jackson, if he reaches his ceiling, can be better than Castro, which is just a really good player. I think he can make a couple all-star games in his career, but let’s not go overboard.

Also, just because someone doesn’t see the brightest sides of everything doesn’t mean they’re pessimistic. Saying that Brett Jackson isn’t a great player and probably never will be isn’t pessimistic. It’s realism. Saying the same for Starlin Castro isn’t pessimistic. It’s only pessimistic if you think he has to be so good or he’s a failure. I don’t. I never have. I never will. He makes league minimum and is still a good ballplayer. rWAR doesn’t like him, but I think he’s somewhere in between rWAR and fWAR. About average. Let’s just go with that. He’s 21 and should improve, but players don’t typically improve by as much as you’re suggesting.[/quote]Well, first of all, you’re wrong that Castro likely never will be a great player. The fact that he’s already an above average player and is only 21 years old is a sign that he could easily be a superstar someday. Maybe he never will, but history tends to side with “if you’re good when you’re 20 you’re going to be a stud when you’re 27″

As for B-Jax, I don’t think he’s going to ever put up a K-Rate of 20%. But if he did, yes, he would be a superstar. We’re talking about him putting something like 5% more balls in play. In 700PA (what he’ll likely get per year) that’s 35 extra balls in play. With a .310BABIP that’s 11 extra hits in a year. Let’s say normally he’s got a K-rate of 20% (140) and a BB% of 11% (77) we’ll say he hits FB 40% of the time and hits a HR/FB of 10%.that’d give him 19HR.

So with that .310BABIP we’re talking about him having a .275 batting average. An ISO probably right around .200 and a BA/OBP differential of right about .100, that’s a .275/.375/.475 centerfielder with average to above average defense.

I’m roughly 99% certain that’d be a 6+WAR player. If you need an example of that type of season see: Sizemore, Grady: 2007. And that was in a much more high scoring run environment than the one Jackson will be coming into even if we go back up to last year’s. I do not think it will happen. In fact, Castro has a better chance at becoming a future MVP than that happening. I’m not setting Brett Jackson up to be anything other than a good player. I was talking about a hypothetical situation with MO, that’s about it. Jackson will likely come up and be an OK player for a couple years and then give us his prime years where he’s maybe a 4, 4.5WAR type guy. Good, but not spectacular.

EDIT: Even if we say Castro is merely average right now. History does, in fact, show that 20 year olds do improve by that much. You’re greatly underestimating how ridiculously young he is. It’s fine if you don’t agree with me on Castro. We’ll see what happens. But I wasn’t saying that stuff was going to actually happen with B-Jax. It was a hypothetical that MO brought up, as I recall.

By the way, history does not, in fact, show that. Look it up. I’ve posted the numbers here before. History doesn’t even tell us Castro will improve defensively. I don’t know what you mean by historically, but I think you’re using the wrong definition.

[quote name=mb21]fWAR sees him as above average. rWAR sees him as slightly above replacement.

Look, there’s no point in discussing this with you because you’re right, I’m wrong, everyone else is wrong. We’re pessimists and you’re a realist.[/quote]I never said any of that. Why does this have to be taken so seriously? We can’t just talk about it and agree to disagree without getting pissy at each other? But you can look at what he’s done and look at the other people who have done the same and see that all of them are in the Hall of Fame.
I mean, sorry if you misread my tone there, but you’re taking it way too seriously.

And when I say “what he’s done” I’m not speaking about strictly his WAR. There is more to baseball than comparing a guy’s WAR to other people’s. I’m referring to what he’s done at such a young age as a hitter.

The Q I have is…who are the comparable players to Starlin Castro so far?

By that I mean over all of baseball history, not just contemporaries. Then you can use that data to determine Castro’s predicted progress/aging curve/whatever.

[quote name=mb21].6 last year.[/quote]He’s still closer to average than replacement.

Doog, I agree what Castro has done is impressive and I’ve never said otherwise. I’ve only said he’s likely not going to be a superstar. He lacks necessary skills for that. He doesn’t hit for enough power and players his age don’t typically become power hitters who have little power at his age. He hits too many balls on the ground, too. He doesn’t take enough walks. His OBP is always going to remain near his average. He’s a poor fielder and even the scouts have always said he’ll have to move to a new position at some point.

None of this is taking away anything that he’s accomplished so far at his young age. I’m just saying that players who have displayed his skills, even at that age, do not typically turn into superstars.

[quote name=Rice Cube]The Q I have is…who are the comparable players to Starlin Castro so far?

By that I mean over all of baseball history, not just contemporaries. Then you can use that data to determine Castro’s predicted progress/aging curve/whatever.[/quote][quote name=Rice Cube]The Q I have is…who are the comparable players to Starlin Castro so far?

By that I mean over all of baseball history, not just contemporaries. Then you can use that data to determine Castro’s predicted progress/aging curve/whatever.[/quote]PECOTA uses comparables and I started writing something yesterday about Castro and I’m going to look at some comparables. Hopefully have it posted later today.

The problem with comparables for Castro is that there are so few of them.

.300 is just a nice number. Anyone who didn’t get into baseball through sabermetrics likes the .300 batting average.

Well put, 424. I also think we as fans tend to get too optimistic about young guys. They do something we really like and then we think if they can fill all the other holes how good they could be. We do that enough and all of a sudden this guy has the potential to be a superstar. All the prospects have the potential to be a superstar. All of them. Poorly rated prospects have changed part of their game and become stars. It happens. It doesn’t happen often, but it does happen.

What we tend to ignore is that most prospects fail. Baseball is a cruel game to young players. It’s more cruel than any other professional league. We also ignore something with regards to the aging curve. We like to think a guy is just going to improve and improve. Well, that’s not necessarily true. The sample of players who reach the big leagues, continue to play for a few to several years continue to improve through age 26 to 28. But that doesn’t include the players who flamed out.

If we know Starlin Castro is going to be playing baseball as long as the group that continues to improve we should expect him to also improve, but we don’t know that. There have been a lot of players, even players his age, who started out with a promising career only to see it go away quickly.

All we really know about a guy like Castro and how he may age is that patience, power and defense are skills. They may improve, but they don’t typically improve significantly. You don’t see too many low-walk guys who become very patient and you don’t see too many low power guys who suddenly start cranking home runs left and right. It can happen. It’s happened before and it could happen to Castro, but it’s not at all likely.

Prospects are kind of like the backup QB on a team with a struggling starter. They are a potential Pro Bowler just wasting away on the bench in the fans’ eyes.

There is nothing wrong with being optimistic, but I think when it comes to baseball and the Cubs in particluar, you’re going to be disappointed far more often than pleased with the actual results.

[quote name=ACT]I don’t understand. Doesn’t “contact skills” mean “ability not to strike out”?[/quote]Not necessarily. As I take it, it means the ability to get the bat on the ball with some regularity. As Dooglas pointed out, guys that can do that tend to work deeper counts (fighting off pitches) and will usually strike more than most.

[quote name=Aisle424]Cubs fans are the best: http://deadspin.com/5828447//quote“Wrigley Field is the greatest place on earth.”
~Tom Ricketts

HOLY SHIT. Castro crushed the living shit out of that.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]HOLY SHIT. Castro crushed the living shit out of that.[/quote]
All the dead shit is missing too

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I want to punch Bronson Arroyo right in his smug face.[/quote]
He plays guitar, so he must be a Cool Guy, MO.

A lineup that contains DeWitt and Campana without injuries to any regular position player. Holy shrieking eagle shit is this roster a shitshow.

Pirates look to lose yet another game in the standings today.

The part of the batting tee today will be played by Randy Wells.

Great play by Castro

Wheels are coming off for Wells.

[quote name=Berselius]Credit that run to Wrigley Field[/quote]
Couldn’t watch game today, did the Reds hit a basket homer?

Yeah, b, I don’t care if he moves to a different position either. He’s not losing value with a position change.

[quote name=mb21]The power numbers will improve with age, but he’s never going to be hitting 30 home runs. 10 to 15 is probably where he’s going to be at in his prime.[/quote]
Never say never…especially with better “nutrition” and “supplements” out there.

Of course he might just have a naturally fluky season where the wind magically blows out every time he gets a ball in the air.

[quote name=Berselius]15 or so sounds about right to me.[/quote]I envision something like an at-his-peak Orlando Cabrera when I think of what Castro can be.

[quote name=Rice Cube]Never say never…especially with better “nutrition” and “supplements” out there.

Of course he might just have a naturally fluky season where the wind magically blows out every time he gets a ball in the air.[/quote]I’d be OK with Castro taking some “supplements.” If it turned him into a 25 home run hitter in his prime I’d like it. (dying laughing)

[quote name=Rice Cube]Randy Wells seems to be getting owned.[/quote]
I’m surprised he’s still in. When the rotting corpse of Edgar Renteria homers off of you you’re probably done for the day

[quote name=Berselius]I’m surprised he’s still in. When the rotting corpse of Edgar Renteria homers off of you you’re probably done for the day[/quote]
A slightly less decomposed corpse of Edgar Renteria did homer off Cliff Lee in the World Series, so we’ll just chalk that up to shitty variance.

[quote name=mb21]Edgar Renteria is the guy I think of. The two are about the same size and they both have had success at a young age.[/quote]
Hopefully Castro matches Renteria in the World Series winning hits category. Sadly it probably won’t be with the Cubs (dying laughing)

Buster Olney is getting all hot and bothered over WAR on twitter (dying laughing)

I could also see Castro’s home run be more similar to Templeton than Renteria. Castro and Templeton have very similar numbers (minors and majors). Prior to last season Bryan Smith did a piece on Castro on Fangraphs and found he was most similar to Templeton. They were similar in the minors and at the majors through age 21 here is what they have done: .314/.331/.427 (106 OPS+) and .307/.344/.420 (104 OPS+).

ROFL.

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17743257

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]For or against?[/quote]
Bitching about the positional adjustments. He thinks there are too many 2B/SS/CF in the top WAR getters.

[quote name=Berselius]Bitching about the positional adjustments. He thinks there are too many 2B/SS/CF in the top WAR getters.[/quote]So too many players who play the most important defensive positions are being ranked as among the more valuable players in the league. Brilliant stance for Buster to take. Really solid. About what I have come to expect from ESPN.

[quote name=Berselius]Paraphrasing Buster Olney:[/quote]Why would anyone ever have to make that choice? And that’s not what WAR is meant to convey, anyway!

[quote name=Berselius]But they have more WAR, so that means they’re better players both now and forever (dying laughing)[/quote]Jeebus. Fucking Olney is an idiot. ESPN is a fucking wasteland.

I hope this is true: http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/whats-alan-watching/posts/press-tour-sons-of-anarchy-goes-back-to-basics-for-season-4

[quote name=mb21]I hope this is true: http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/whats-alan-watching/posts/press-tour-sons-of-anarchy-goes-back-to-basics-for-season-4/quoteSame. That show went way, way off the rails.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Same. That show went way, way off the rails.[/quote]Yeah, I didn’t even like most of season 2. Sepinwall seemed to enjoy it, but it was too different from the first season. By the time Jax’s baby was kidnapped I was wondering why I even watched the show. I heard last year was about the same so I didn’t watch it. I’ll watch it this year to start the season anyway.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I suspect that what you and I consider bright spots and what Hendry considers bright spots are two different things. (dying laughing)

I see what you’re saying, though, and I hope it’s right because when you can put DeWitt, Colvin, and Campana in one lineup without any regular being injured, you have a roster that is seriously flawed.[/quote]
I think the biggest difference is money. The Cubs haven’t had money for a few off seasons so there was little they could do. That’s not a problem this year. I was thinking the other day that I could see the Cubs acquiring a guy like Jose Bautista. He’s not exactly cheap, but his contract is still friendly. Those are the guys the Cubs need to go after and they have the money. The question is whether or not they have the talent to acquire him.

[quote name=mb21]I think the biggest difference is money. The Cubs haven’t had money for a few off seasons so there was little they could do. That’s not a problem this year. I was thinking the other day that I could see the Cubs acquiring a guy like Jose Bautista. He’s not exactly cheap, but his contract is still friendly. Those are the guys the Cubs need to go after and they have the money. The question is whether or not they have the talent to acquire him.[/quote]They’re still working with ~$25 mil offseason purse, right?

Ugh, I hate that that play is considered clean

The Legend of Tony Campana grows.

7 IP, 1 K for Wells, also 6 R, but only 1 BB. He’s not fooling anyone anymore.

The Cubs refuse to lose (dying laughing)

The NL Central is a festival of shitty baseball.

[quote name=Rice Cube]If only the Brewers would start losing.[/quote]
Take heart RC, the Cubs are only 16.5 back in the wild card

And they play 7 against the braves. Along with their 25-game winning streak, they’ll be in for sure.

(dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) NEITHER TEAM WANTS TO WIN THIS GAME.

[quote name=Rice Cube]Wasn’t Kirby Puckett shaped like a fire hydrant?[/quote]Yes. If fire hydrants were perfectly spherical.

Today’s bedshitter = Marshall unless the Cubs foist the bedshitting unto the Reds.

Is the umpire okay? Sounds like one of them is sick.

[quote name=Berselius]Take heart RC, the Cubs are only 16.5 back in the wild card[/quote]How many more in a row would the Cubs have to win to have a better than 0.5% chance of reaching the playoffs?

[quote name=mb21]I take it Campana took the middle infielder out at 2nd base? Why do you guys hate that play? I’ve always liked it. As long as the player is within reach of the base, I think it’s a good play and I think the baserunner would be silly not to do it.[/quote]They’re playing like a team that want to win. I say go for it. Let the umpire decide clean/dirty.

Wow: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/breaking/chi-giants-manager-calls-radio-host-comments-racist-20110807,0,837624.story

[quote name=writerjosh]They’re playing like a team that want to win. I say go for it. Let the umpire decide clean/dirty.[/quote]Yeah, I agree with that.

[quote name=mb21]Did he overslide?[/quote]
Yes.

[quote name=writerjosh]They’re playing like a team that want to win. I say go for it. Let the umpire decide clean/dirty.[/quote]There has been no point at which these players did not want to win, nor have they ever played more to win or less to win. The only difference is that they are winning now and were losing then. Everything else is the hackneyed armchair psychoanalysis in which fans indulge to assuage their own frustrations and justify their own preconceptions.

But I agree on the umpire bit. That’s what they are there to do. No need to engage in silly beanball antics or the like.

[quote name=Rice Cube]Actually most of the interwebs and the announcers were cheering Campana on so obviously they thought it was clean too.

Speaking of Campana, I just saw the replay of Frazier’s RBI double and Campana missed Castro at the cutoff and fired to nobody in particular at 2B. Ball bounced off Frazier’s leg as he got into 2B standing and could’ve given him 3B if it bounced even farther away. WTF, Campana?[/quote]Campana’s arm is awful, maybe worst I’ve ever seen on a ML OF. No accuracy or arm strength at all.

[quote name=mb21]I haven’t seen the Campana one. If you find a video let me know.[/quote]
I haven’t either, maybe someone has TiVo but I imagine since nobody scored on the play, MLB.com might not upload it.

Al Alburquerque is pitching for Detroit right now!

Correction…he’s done, got two outs on 9 pitches.

Aroldis clowns three straight Cubs.

F7 is so wild.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Baker in RF. (dying laughing) Quade loves the MIF in OF move.[/quote]
Gotta save Soriano for extra innings, y’know. And it’d be too logical to put Campana in CF and move Byrd to RF.

F7 wasn’t missing the zone by much, at least against Votto.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Baker in RF. (dying laughing) Quade loves the MIF in OF move.[/quote]defensive spectrum.

Baker has only played 10 more innings in the outfield this year than he did last year.

[quote name=mb21]defensive spectrum.

Baker has only played 10 more innings in the outfield this year than he did last year.[/quote]It’s not a big deal to me. It just makes me laugh. Quade really has his favorite moves.

Really nice job on the last three pitches to Votto. Looks like he found the handle on the FB.

[quote name=Berselius]The feed isn’t loading on my laptop right now – I’ll try to grab some images of the slide later.[/quote]It’s no big deal, b. More than likely I’m not going to think it was a dirty play or should be considered dirty.

A dirty play to me is A-Rod swatting the glove away. It’s yelling “got it” when the ball is in the outfield. It’s throwing a bat at someone running down the line. It’s throwing at someone’s head. It’s pushing Don Zimmer down. It’s taking steroids. It’s spitting on baseballs. And you know how I feel about steroids and spitting on baseballs. If you can get away with it, you should do it. (dying laughing)

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]It’s not a big deal to me. It just makes me laugh. Quade really has his favorite moves.[/quote]What makes me laugh about it is that playing Blake DeWitt in LF isn’t necessarily a bad decision. That’s funny. And sad. (dying laughing)

[quote name=mb21]It’s no big deal, b. More than likely I’m not going to think it was a dirty play or should be considered dirty.

A dirty play to me is A-Rod swatting the glove away. It’s yelling “got it” when the ball is in the outfield. It’s throwing a bat at someone running down the line. It’s throwing at someone’s head. It’s pushing Don Zimmer down. It’s taking steroids. It’s spitting on baseballs. And you know how I feel about steroids and spitting on baseballs. If you can get away with it, you should do it. (dying laughing)[/quote]
(dying laughing), this is my personal crusade. I’ll need a new axe to grind after Soriano is out of baseball (dying laughing)

Awwww…now it’s going to be harder to make the playoffs.

Cubs don’t win 40 in a row

Checking out the Cardinals game now. Pujols has 27 HR. Even after a crap season he will get yet another 30 HR season unless someone kills him with a wrecking ball. It’d be tougher for him to get to 100 RBI or .300 batting average. Right now he only has 69 RBI, it doesn’t help that TLR kept batting auto-outs in front of him.

[quote name=josh]I usually login with my facebook account, but when I would try the button, it did nothing. It could be that her computer doesn’t have the latest javascript or something.[/quote]When was the last time you logged in using FB on a different computer?

[quote name=Rice Cube]Checking out the Cardinals game now. Pujols has 27 HR. Even after a crap season he will get yet another 30 HR season unless someone kills him with a wrecking ball. It’d be tougher for him to get to 100 RBI or .300 batting average. Right now he only has 69 RBI, it doesn’t help that TLR kept batting auto-outs in front of him.[/quote]It’s truly amazing to think about what Pujols has done over his career given the shit with which TLR has often surrounded him.

Earlier today. Then it would let me log in with twitter, but I guess it sort of gave me a different profile. Anyway, I tried to cancel that out and it didn’t like that, I couldn’t login any other way. I ended up clearing out my cache and breaking the connection on Twitter, and that solved that problem.

[quote name=Berselius]On a related note, I often have problems logging in on my phone[/quote]
I do as well. I blame Steve Jobs.

More on Vitters, via Miles:

Over his last 10 games, Vitters is 13-for-35 with 2 doubles, 2 homers, 9 RBI, 2 walks and 3 strikeouts. His line over that span is .371/.425/.600. For the season, Vitters is at .284/.321/.455.

It appears I may have been wrong about bolstering the rotation. Miles on Hendry’s offseason plans:

The vibe I’ve been getting is that a solid starting pitcher will be atop the winter shopping list, whether trade or free agency.

I assume this also implies that neither Pujols nor Fielder are in their plans…which means Peña for another year.

[quote name=josh]Who’s going to realistically be available? I’m assuming our trade prospects are virtually nil, but maybe I’m wrong.[/quote]MLBTR’s list:

Mark Buehrle (33)
Chris Capuano (33)
Chris Carpenter (37) – $15MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Bruce Chen (35)
Bartolo Colon (39)
Aaron Cook (33) – $11MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Kyle Davies (28)
Doug Davis (36)
Ryan Dempster (35) – $14MM player option, no buyout
Zach Duke (29) – $5.5MM club option with a $750K buyout
Jeff Francis (30)
Freddy Garcia (36)
Jon Garland (32) – $8MM club option with a $500K buyout; vests with 190 IP
Aaron Harang (34) – $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Rich Harden (30)
Livan Hernandez (37)
Edwin Jackson (28)
Kenshin Kawakami (37)
Scott Kazmir (28) – $13.5MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout
Hiroki Kuroda (37)
Rodrigo Lopez (36)
Paul Maholm (30) – $9.75MM club option with a $750K buyout
John Maine (31)
Jason Marquis (33)
Kevin Millwood (37)
Sergio Mitre (31)
Scott Olsen (28) – $4MM club option with a $100K buyout
Roy Oswalt (34) – $16MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Brad Penny (34)
Oliver Perez (30)
Joel Pineiro (33)
C.C. Sabathia (31) – may opt out of remaining four years, $92MM
Javier Vazquez (35)
Adam Wainwright (30) – $10MM vesting option for ’12, $12MM for ’13
Tim Wakefield (45)
Chien-Ming Wang (32)
Brandon Webb (33)
Dontrelle Willis (30)
C.J. Wilson (31)
Chris Young (33)

Looking at that list, I’d say the likely Hendry targets are Jackson, Millwood, Maholm, and Vasquez.

[quote name=ACT]I just hope they don’t go after Wakefield or Livan.[/quote]Or MIllwood or Javi. But Hendry’s gone the the buy-low veteran innings eater route before.

The play by Campana on Frazier’s RBI double:

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17766879

Seriously…who was he throwing to? On that play I think you concede the runner will get to 2B and fire to the cutoff man on a line to 3B to prevent the runner from getting to 3B.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Looking at that list, I’d say the likely Hendry targets are Jackson, Millwood, Maholm, and Vasquez.[/quote]
I can’t believe Buerhle is 33. He seems Moyer-esque (dying laughing).

[quote name=Berselius]Millwood just more or less hung em up today. Apparently he cleaned out his locker for the BoSox AAA team[/quote]Well, that might just save Hendry from himself. (dying laughing)

[quote name=Berselius]I can’t believe Buerhle is 33. He seems Moyer-esque (dying laughing).[/quote]Yeah. He’s almost certainly going to StL, though.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I’d be shocked if CC opted out. But you never know.

I could see Hendry working a waiver deal with BOS for Z or Demp, though if he wanted to max out value, he might offer Garza.[/quote]
I’d be shocked if they moved Garza, even if Hendry is no longer the GM.

[quote name=Berselius]I’d be shocked if they moved Garza, even if Hendry is no longer the GM.[/quote]Yeah, me, too. But he’s probably the second most-valuable chip they have.

[quote name=Rice Cube]Can’t really tell where Barney was on that play. I think Castro was set up to receive the cutoff near 3B to prevent an advance. Should Barney have been covering 2B, or is he backing up something else? Or was he scratching his ass in the outfield?[/quote]I’m not sure. You would assume Barney should have been there (he’s gone missing a few times this season on plays at 2B), but it’s hard to get a sense of position sometimes, given TV camera angles. Bottom line is that it’s a wildass throw without a lot of zing. Get it to Castro and let the guy with the big league arm make a play if it’s there.

He’s like a little leaguer. He turns and launches the ball in the general direction of the infield with all his might.

I thought that throw should’ve been thrown towards 3B/cutoff in that direction. I was very surprised to see that it went to 2B when Castro was out of position because he was in the proper cutoff position and Barney was meditating in the outfield or something.

It ultimately doesn’t matter, but I think Frazier was in 2B safely within 8 seconds of making contact with the ball. Ball bounced off his ankle about half a second later, but he slowed down to not overrun the bag and was safe standing. I don’t know why the throw went to 2B, because the LF was not Soriano. Not that we’ll ever know, but Soriano probably takes longer to get to that ball than Campana, and while his throw is stronger, that delay in getting to the ball would mean Frazier is safe at 2B anyway whether the throw got there or not.

I think Barney was backing up Castro’s cutoff position. Oh well. Maybe Q will yell at them later.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I’d be shocked if CC opted out. But you never know.

I could see Hendry working a waiver deal with BOS for Z or Demp, though if he wanted to max out value, he might offer Garza.[/quote]I’d be surprised if CC didn’t opt out. Most Yankees fans seem to think it’s a given. On the 3 or 4 Yankees blogs I visit they seem to think it’s all but official, which I agree with.

I think that’s who the Cubs target. I could see the Cubs going after him and sticking with Pena if he’ll take $5 million or less. Not a bad start to a team that could build and get better and be ready to contend in 2013.

In any case, I want CC back in the NL. That dude can hit.

[quote name=mb21]I’d be surprised if CC didn’t opt out. Most Yankees fans seem to think it’s a given. On the 3 or 4 Yankees blogs I visit they seem to think it’s all but official, which I agree with.

I think that’s who the Cubs target. I could see the Cubs going after him and sticking with Pena if he’ll take $5 million or less. Not a bad start to a team that could build and get better and be ready to contend in 2013.[/quote]Hmmm. That’s interesting. What’s the better move: investing in a really good, fat pitcher, a really good, fat 1B, or an aging, all time great 1B?

[quote name=Rice Cube]I think they try to use the Giants method…try to ensure a good rotation and then hope that they outpitch the opposition while your shitty offense puts up just enough runs.[/quote]I’d like just for ocne to see them behave like a large market team and try and do both at once.

FWIW, I too have issues logging in on my iphone. It will automatically log me out once I leave the page. At the bottom it acts like I’m logged off, it has the “name, email, website, prompt” but I have to logoff at the top of the page. I then have to go to the home page. I login, after completing log in it says my session has expired so I have to login again. At that point it works fine. This is how it’s been consistently for me the last few weeks.

What melissa’s describing could be going on too. I probably only use the mobile site once a week or so but I never tell it to log me off.

jackson has an ops over 1.2 in the last 10 days

McNutt going for Tenn tonight.

hey md, what do you make of Vitter’s this season? Its weird but for the last few levels he posts similar lines. They dont stand out (OPS in the .775 range) but he isn’t getting worse as the competition increases. He doesnt walk, he doesn’t strike out, he hits for average power and a decent average overall. IF he can stick at 3B he might be a prospect but if he has to move to 1B then forget about it

Breaking Bad thread on Unobstructed Views: http://www.obstructedview.net/unobstructed-views/general/breaking-bad-bullet-points.html