We’ve talked a bit about compensation for Theo Epstein here and it’s been discussed a lot all over the internet. I thought it would be interesting to compare what the Marlins gave up for Ozzie Guillen to what the Cubs might have to give up. The Marlins sent the White Sox as compensation for hiring Guillen Jhan Marinez and Osvaldo Martinez. Marinez, a RHP, was the 4th ranked prospect in the Marlins organization according to Baseball America.
Marinez turned 23 years old in August and is a hard throwing late inning reliever who sits 92-95 and tops out at 98. Baseball America said that he has been resistant to coaching in previous years, but that changed in 2011. He had a solid season at AA this year and pitched 2.2 innings at the big league level in 2010. He walks a lot and strikes a lot of guys out. He probably fell a bit this year, but probably not by much.
Osvaldo Martinez turned 23 in May. He’s had big league action in each of 2010 and 2011 and owns a career .258/.300/.348 line in only 71 plate appearances. He hit very poorly in his first taste of AAA this season and undoubtedly fell quite a lot. Probably even out of the top 10.
Both players fell a bit in their rankings and were top 5 prospects entering the season. Josh Vitters was ranked 5th overall and fell a lot too. He should be out of the top 10, probably should have been entering the season. He’s very comparable to Martinez though Vitters has much more potential.
Unfortunately for the Cubs, they don’t really have anyone that matches Marinez. Chris Carpenter would be the closest, but he probably fell out of the top 10.
So I think Brett Jackson or Trey McNutt are out of reach. Matt Szczur was the 7th ranked prospect and he had a pretty good season overall. Depending on how crazy Baseball America gets with recent draft picks, Szczur could find himself in a similar spot next year. Szczur and Jackson were the only Cubs in a full season league ranked in the top 20. I’m going to assume neither will be traded.
I think Josh Vitters and Chris Carpenter make a lot of sense if we’re using the Guillen trade as an example.
Comments
Seriously, earned/unearned runs distinction aside, that was a pretty crappy start by Greinke.
ACTQuote Reply
Also of the 2010 class can we not trade Szczur? I liked that Jay Jackson idea. Honestly, as long as the guy is not Jackson or McNutt I’ll be happy. Even if’s one of those two I’m just glad we’ll get Theo and a few of his guys from the Sox. Hopefully, that young Dominacan isn’t on the Sox list. Jemier or something?
cdwQuote Reply
Also, don’t want to lose Junior Lake. Not b/c of talent b/c of this,
cdwQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]are you also a coors light guy?[/quote]
I love how the train in their ads looks like a giant penis. Makes me thirsty for beer.
[quote name=cdw]I prefer miller light but coors light > Sierra Nevada Torpedo[/quote]
MO’s and hundreds of other hopfags heads just exploded
BerseliusQuote Reply
If I’m the Sox I’m hoping for better compensation for Theo than the Marlins gave for Ozzie.
cdwQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
[quote name=Berselius]MO’s and hundreds of other hopfags heads just exploded[/quote]Torpedo is my swill of the evening. Much better than bunts.
cdwQuote Reply
i’m just impressed that you were able to find those two guys on the interwebs. The marinez/martinez, jan/jhan, oswaldo/osvaldo inversions make me wonder whether this was another case of kenny williams and mistaken prospect identities.
GWQuote Reply
yeah, and i’ve taken a shine to the fat bastard.
GWQuote Reply
TheCCO ChicagoCubsOnline
(@thekapman) Just spoke to a GREAT source on Theo compensation talks. Sox are asking for an insane package of players. Cubs saying no way.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
haven’t had this one, but I would probably agree, unfortunately. i’ve yet to find an ipa that i can get behind.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]TheCCO ChicagoCubsOnline
(@thekapman) Just spoke to a GREAT source on Theo compensation talks. Sox are asking for an insane package of players. Cubs saying no way.[/quote]Purple shirt guy strikes again?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]yeah, and i’ve taken a shine to the fat bastard.[/quote]
They got a fresh pic of him down in the AZL
BerseliusQuote Reply
I lurk here usually, so I’m pretty sure this is both my first post and that it will be roundly ignored, but I’ve read in a bunch of places that the main reason the White Sox were so well compensated was to avoid tampering charges. If that’s the case, and I highly suspect it is, I don’t really think this is a fair comparison
tcQuote Reply
[quote name=tc]I lurk here usually, so I’m pretty sure this is both my first post and that it will be roundly ignored, but I’ve read in a bunch of places that the main reason the White Sox were so well compensated was to avoid tampering charges. If that’s the case, and I highly suspect it is, I don’t really think this is a fair comparison[/quote]
interesting
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]haven’t had this one, but I would probably agree, unfortunately. i’ve yet to find an ipa that i can get behind.[/quote]
Though if you can get that, you might as well skip it and buy
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]
Though if you can get that, you might as well skip it and buy
[/quote]
i wonder if they have those at that former gas station at duvall and 45th. i’ll have to check it out.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=cdw]If I’m the Sox I’m hoping for better compensation for Theo than the Marlins gave for Ozzie.[/quote]I have to believe getting an elite GM is worth way more than getting a manager even considering tc’s tampering considerations. Even if it’s BJax, I’d be OK with it. I want to see what TEpst can do running the Cubs.
cwolfQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]i wonder if they have those at that former gas station at duvall and 45th. i’ll have to check it out.[/quote]
They have them at Spec’s, and IIRC Whole Paycheck too.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=tc]I lurk here usually, so I’m pretty sure this is both my first post and that it will be roundly ignored, but I’ve read in a bunch of places that the main reason the White Sox were so well compensated was to avoid tampering charges. If that’s the case, and I highly suspect it is, I don’t really think this is a fair comparison[/quote]That’s a good point, but I don’t think it’s a fair comparison anyway as cwolf said…there’s a sizable difference between a one-time World Series winning manager who might make you laugh on Twitter versus one of the best GMs of this generation.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]i wonder if they have those at that former gas station at duvall and 45th. i’ll have to check it out.[/quote]
Also, if you’re a Costco member, from time to time they have sampler cases from Ommegang.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]They have them at Spec’s, and IIRC Whole Paycheck too.[/quote]Both of those beers look mighty tasty.
cwolfQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]That’s a good point, but I don’t think it’s a fair comparison anyway as cwolf said…there’s a sizable difference between a one-time World Series winning manager who might make you laugh on Twitter versus one of the best GMs of this generation.[/quote]
yes, this. Though I still think that Theo is being overvalued, but whatever (dying laughing). It’s a market of one as far as Ricketts is concerned.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Also, if you’re a Costco member, from time to time they have sampler cases from Ommegang.[/quote]
you don’t actually have to be a member to buy alcohol there, i believe. its right down the road from me.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]That’s a good point, but I don’t think it’s a fair comparison anyway as cwolf said…there’s a sizable difference between a one-time World Series winning manager who might make you laugh on Twitter versus one of the best GMs of this generation.[/quote]
this shouldn’t make any difference if they are both being paid what they are worth. add that to the fact that theo is actually being promoted, and i still expect the compensation to be less than what the sox received.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=cwolf]Both of those beers look mighty tasty.[/quote]
Hennepin >>>> all other beers
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]you don’t actually have to be a member to buy alcohol there, i believe. its right down the road from me.[/quote]
I’m not sure if they sell the same stuff in the liquor store vs the warehouse.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Hennepin >>>> all other beers[/quote]
i can’t remember, do you typically go for ipas?
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]this shouldn’t make any difference if they are both being paid what they are worth. add that to the fact that theo is actually being promoted, and i still expect the compensation to be less than what the sox received.[/quote]Wouldn’t the fact that the Cubs want Theo to to be in a higher position make the compensation higher?
cwolfQuote Reply
I honestly don’t see how to Sox can ask for a ridiculous package. Seems to me the Cubs have the leverage here. Unless they sense some desperation from Tommy boy
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
[quote name=cwolf]Wouldn’t the fact that the Cubs want Theo to to be in a higher position make the compensation higher?[/quote]
not at all. mlb doesn’t want to be seen as an organization that impedes the progression of front office members.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]I honestly don’t see how to Sox can ask for a ridiculous package. Seems to me the Cubs have the leverage here. Unless they sense some desperation from Tommy boy[/quote]Well, y’know…the Tribune did make them pay $845B for the franchise…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]i can’t remember, do you typically go for ipas?[/quote]
Not a huge IPA fan. I like Belgian style beers and/or wheat beers.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Not a huge IPA fan. I like Belgian style beers and/or wheat beers.[/quote]
hmm… this will make me persona non grata around here, but i generally don’t care for any of these.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Well, y’know…the Tribune did make them pay $845B for the franchise…[/quote]
They sell out every game win or lose, Duh!
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]hmm… this will make me persona non grata around here, but i generally don’t care for any of these.[/quote]
Don’t you like anything?
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]not at all. mlb doesn’t want to be seen as an organization that impedes the progression of front office members.[/quote]Very true. I think the NFL has an actual policy for this at least as far as coaches moving. I just don’t remember any situation like this with a senior management guy still under contract moves and what the comp precedents would be.
cwolfQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]haven’t had this one, but I would probably agree, unfortunately. i’ve yet to find an ipa that i can get behind.[/quote]Not sure if you’re a fan of darker beers but you might try Clown Shoes Hoppy Feet or Hoppy Feet 1.5 to find an IPA you like. Those are really nice and unique versions of IPAs.
cdwQuote Reply
[quote name=cdw]Not sure if you’re a fan of darker beers but you might try Clown Shoes Hoppy Feet or Hoppy Feet 1.5 to find an IPA you like. Those are really nice and unique versions of IPAs.[/quote]
Is Carlos Marmol the spokesman for this brewery?
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]They sell out every game win or lose, Duh![/quote]Correct…and now I am going to go without dinner.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]I honestly don’t see how to Sox can ask for a ridiculous package. Seems to me the Cubs have the leverage here. Unless they sense some desperation from Tommy boy[/quote]They’re just starting negotiations from the extremes rather than the center.
cdwQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Is Carlos Marmol the spokesman for this brewery?[/quote]He could be if he gets shipped to Mass.
cdwQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Don’t you like anything?[/quote]
(dying laughing) i suppose in general my preferences are something like:
germany, mainland britain, netherlands > belgium, france, exports to the colonies
GWQuote Reply
Compensation constipation.
Is is true that Boston owes Epstein 7M if he doesn’t GM their team next year? The Cubs are already picking up part of that anyway, right? I’d consider that compensation.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
[quote name=cdw]Not sure if you’re a fan of darker beers but you might try Clown Shoes Hoppy Feet or Hoppy Feet 1.5 to find an IPA you like. Those are really nice and unique versions of IPAs.[/quote]
cool. i’ll check them out
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=cdw]They’re just starting negotiations from the extremes rather than the center.[/quote]
True. I know it’s early and both teams are going to start from polar opposite sides ie money vs. prospects but I’m getting anxious here.
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
[quote name=GW](dying laughing) i suppose in general my preferences are something like:
germany, mainland britain, netherlands > belgium, france, exports to the colonies[/quote]Do you like dunkels then?
cdwQuote Reply
[quote name=cdw]Do you like dunkels then?[/quote]
yes
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]True. I know it’s early and both teams are going to start from polar opposite sides ie money vs. prospects but I’m getting anxious here.[/quote]Yeah, the risk averse side of me just wants this to be officially official, no matter the prospect.
cdwQuote Reply
also, kolschs
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]yes[/quote]That black ipa may be right. Love the hoffbrau dark and the gosser dark.
cdwQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]TheCCO ChicagoCubsOnline
(@thekapman) Just spoke to a GREAT source on Theo compensation talks. Sox are asking for an insane package of players. Cubs saying no way.[/quote]Great source < GREAT source
GBTSQuote Reply
Just starting to listen to the Henry radio interview. I’d love it if the host actually referred to the “Globe” story in more detail. Not sure which one they are referring too. Also, please define “that”.
cdwQuote Reply
[quote name=cdw]Yeah, the risk averse side of me just wants this to be officially official, no matter the prospect.[/quote]That’s where I’m at too, cdw. I’m almost positive that Theo is going to be running the Cubs baseball ops and if they end up giving up Jackson, so be it. Then I hope he ends being a sold MLB player and not a star player. I’m pretty sure I’d be pathetically bad at negotiating this whole deal. (dying laughing)
cwolfQuote Reply
I’m thinking I want STL to win the World Series. Now inviting negative faget points.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I wouldn’t mind seeing Texas win, as they’ve never won before.
ACTQuote Reply
Thanks folks! (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
That said, I love watching Nolan’s disappointed expressions when he team isn’t doing well.
ACTQuote Reply
Just another day at Obstructed View. Arguments about orange juice and academic publishing (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
I’m disappointed that my negative faget’d post did not turn red with dishonor.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Just another day at Obstructed View. Arguments about orange juice and academic publishing (dying laughing)[/quote]Looks like I missed out on the more interesting of the two. Go back and read comments < aw, fuck it
cdwQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I’m disappointed that my negative faget’d post did not turn red with dishonor.[/quote]
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]
[/quote]Guess I can’t expect all that much from a discredited blog.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/proper_compensation_for_epstein/
GWQuote Reply
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2011/10/superhuman.html
GWQuote Reply
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/sabre_office/
yea, go ahead and get that offer out please
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
The “All-Star” team heading to Taiwan looks interesting. The infield is great, Granderson is great, the pitching is weak, and the catchers are the worst in the league. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7102862/robinson-cano-curtis-granderson-new-york-yankees-lead-team-taiwan
ACTQuote Reply
I should say, “worst in the major leagues.” If they got Koyie Hill, it would improve the team.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]mainland britain/quote]
Redundant redundacy is ignorant, unless you really don’t like beers from Guernsey and Jersey.
10 Million PaddiesQuote Reply
[quote name=10 Million Paddies][quote name=GW]mainland britain/quote]
Redundant redundacy is ignorant, unless you really don’t like beers from Guernsey and Jersey.[/quote]
yes, thank you. i hope you will forgive my grievous error.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=10 Million Paddies]
Redundant redundacy is ignorant, unless you really don’t like beers from Guernsey and Jersey.[/quote]
Gotta say, I thought Guinness was shit until I went to Ireland. It’s insanely delicious over there.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]yes, thank you. i hope you will forgive my grievous error.[/quote]Ah sure, only a stepmother would blame you. No one can memorize and/or agree on this shit.
10 Million PaddiesQuote Reply
10 Million PaddiesQuote Reply
Unregistered trolls can’t post images (or edit their posts), apparently.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/28/British_Isles_Euler_diagram_15.svg
10 Million PaddiesQuote Reply
[quote name=cdw]If I’m the Sox I’m hoping for better compensation for Theo than the Marlins gave for Ozzie.[/quote]I agree. Ozzie isn’t nearly as important to the Marlins as Theo will be to the Cubs. If I’m Henry, I want quite a bit more than the Marlins just gave up.
Regarding your question about Szczur, yes, he can be traded. He was drafted in 2010 so he could have been traded without his permission this past june.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=tc]I lurk here usually, so I’m pretty sure this is both my first post and that it will be roundly ignored, but I’ve read in a bunch of places that the main reason the White Sox were so well compensated was to avoid tampering charges. If that’s the case, and I highly suspect it is, I don’t really think this is a fair comparison[/quote]I read that or I think MO mentioned that here. It’s a good point if it’s anything other than speculation.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]I honestly don’t see how to Sox can ask for a ridiculous package. Seems to me the Cubs have the leverage here. Unless they sense some desperation from Tommy boy[/quote]The leverage here is hard to figure out at the team level. Theo has none. That’s all I really know. There are good points to be made about the Red Sox having leverage and probably stronger points overall. The leverage I can find for the Cubs is that they can stick the Red Sox with $7 million left to pay Theo. They obviously wouldn’t like that, but they’re not the Royals so it’s not a big deal when you consider it’s spread over 2 years. On the other hand, the Cubs desperately want Theo and the Red Sox have control of him. The Cubs fan base is already hanging World Series Championship banners in their rooms and have finally had something to be excited about. Ricketts can’t turn back and face the backlash from the media and fans.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=cdw]They’re just starting negotiations from the extremes rather than the center.[/quote]Yeah, that’s what’s going on here. Sox are asking for Starlin Castro, Brett Jackson, Trey McNutt and a 49% share in Cubs profits for the next 87 years. The Cubs are offering $1 in shiny new nickels and Chris Robinson. Neither offer is realistic.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I’m thinking I want STL to win the World Series. Now inviting negative faget points.[/quote]I’m hoping for Cardinals and Rangers. Then I’ll be somewhat pleased regardless of who wins.
mb21Quote Reply
http://www.csnchicago.com/baseball-chicago-cubs/news/Red-Sox-playing-hardball-with-Cubs?blockID=577760&feedID=661
[quote name=source of the orange one]Larry Lucchino is one of the most unreasonable people I have ever dealt with and because of his frayed relationship with Theo Epstein he is looking to make a point at the expense of Theo’s happiness and his desire to go to Chicago. I didn’t believe that ownership group for one second when they said that they wouldn’t stand in Theo’s way if he wanted out of Boston. They are furious that he wants out and they are trying to make a point. Theo helped bring them two World Series titles and they have no loyalty to him and his happiness. They messed with Terry Francona and that was just an incredibly pathetic move and now they are trying to make life very tough for Theo.[/quote].
GWQuote Reply
What pisses me off is that Lucchino took most of his guys with him from Baltimore to San Diego and then to Boston. Not one or two guys. Most of them.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Kaplan’s source]”The Red Sox hold the cards here because they have their new GM in Ben Cherington and they control Theo for the next 12 months. If they want they can force Theo to stay in Boston or on the sidelines for the next year. Can the Cubs go without a GM for the next 12 months? That would be an incredibly gutsy move but also a very risky one.”[/quote]That’s not the worst-case scenario for the Cubs. Worst case is they let Theo walk and hire Friedman while the Sox pay Theo $7M to sit around for a year.
fang2415Quote Reply
If Friedman is available and one would have to assume he and the Rays are far along in discussing a contract. Same with Cashman. I really do think the Cubs are in a situation where they have to get him or you’re going to be handing the GM job to whats-his-face that is currently interim GM.
mb21Quote Reply
Boy, nothing like your team hiring an all-star GM to make you stop caring about a bunch of other teams in the postseason.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]If Friedman is available and one would have to assume he and the Rays are far along in discussing a contract. Same with Cashman. I really do think the Cubs are in a situation where they have to get him or you’re going to be handing the GM job to whats-his-face that is currently interim GM.[/quote]Well, maybe not Friedman then, but I think you could get Hahn over Bush. Point is that if the deal blows up, the Cubs won’t have to just sit around for 12 months while the Red Sox laugh. It would be serious egg on the face of both teams if it went bad at this point.
fang2415Quote Reply
Not to mention that the Sox are already catching truckloads of shit from their fans/press for mistreating their personnel (e.g. smearing Tito on the way out, whether it’s true or not). If Theo walks and gets screwed, the Cubs fans might have slightly greater reason for disappointment, but we’re used to it. The knives are really out in Boston, to the point where fans might seriously turn against the team (for a while at least) if they thought Lucchino et al are acting in bad faith.
fang2415Quote Reply
I agree, fang. There’s little doubt this won’t get done.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I agree, fang. There’s little doubt this won’t get done.[/quote]The key is what the teams have to threaten, though. This is like a cold war negotiation over Mutually Assured Destruction. You know it’d kill both sides if they don’t make a deal, but each side has to pretend it’s more willing to walk away in order to get the best deal.
fang2415Quote Reply
That’s a great way to put it.
mb21Quote Reply
Berselius, is there not a THT annual this year? Usually they have an image of it on the sidebar and when it will be released this time of year.
mb21Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/evaluate-gm-decisions-at-the-time-they-are-made.html
mb21Quote Reply
(dying laughing) Wisconsin went into Fuck You mode early with that Ball to Wilson TD
BerseliusQuote Reply