Kosuke Fukudome has been known for his great April starts and then fading away. This year has been a bit different. He’s still hitting fairly well into May, which is because of the new calendar the Cubs presented him with, but something is different. I put together these images of his AVG, OBP and SLG after each of the first 26 games he played in during 2008, 2009, 2010 and this year. Click on them to enlarge.
{yoogallery src=[/images/stories/Fukudome26] width=[200] height=[200] prefix=[thumb200_] thumb_cache_dir=[thumbs200]}
Basically he’s had a similar average and OBP each of the previous 3 years, but his SLG is way down this year. Only 26 games so it doesn’t mean much, but I like pictures.
Great stuff, mb. It’s been really strange for Kosuke. Didn’t he go the first three or four weeks before getting his first extra base hit?
I can’t remember, but he’s been a singles machine. Then again, so has every other player except Soriano. (dying laughing)
I meant to link to Tim’s calendar article before I published it. I added the link now.
Interesting: http://www.sportsfanlive.com/hittingthecutoffman
Simon interned for cubs.com and I really loved his articles when he was writing there. So nice to see some advanced stats in an article on cubs.com.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=law_keith&id=6535805
mock draft… Cubs taking Starling.. i want him or bundy. i am now down on sonny gray
Do you think the lack of SLG so far has something to do with Kosuke’s new approach now that he’s basically the leadoff guy? Since he wants to get on base, he no longer hits for power but rather just tries to poke it somewhere they ain’t. I might just be pulling that out of the air, but just a thought.
Do you guys remember Baseball Analytics heatmap for Kosuke? It basically showed that he had amazing discipline, but really only had luck (hitting wise) on pitches pretty much right down the middle.
I wonder if he’s just not seeing the ball down the middle as much. Not sure though. Of course, ISO is the stat that takes the longest to stabilize (of those that do in a season’s worth of PAs) so it may just be anomalous.
I also agree with Mish’s link from the last thread that they might as well let Colvin figure shit out in Iowa and have Baker be the fifth OF. Don’t know who they’d call up to replace Colvin though.
[quote name=Mish]Do you guys remember Baseball Analytics heatmap for Kosuke? It basically showed that he had amazing discipline, but really only had luck (hitting wise) on pitches pretty much right down the middle.
I wonder if he’s just not seeing the ball down the middle as much. Not sure though. Of course, ISO is the stat that takes the longest to stabilize (of those that do in a season’s worth of PAs) so it may just be anomalous.[/quote]
I do find myself somewhat annoyed when he takes pitches right down the pipe so the opposing pitcher does throw them there, and I guess Kosuke is guessing instead of hitting at that point (baseball cliche). I don’t know at what frequency they will throw those pitches to that part of the zone though when Kosuke is at-bat…if they are nibbling at the corners and Kosuke is protecting the plate then that could explain the dinky-dunk singles going up and solid contact going down.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Do you think the lack of SLG so far has something to do with Kosuke’s new approach now that he’s basically the leadoff guy? Since he wants to get on base, he no longer hits for power but rather just tries to poke it somewhere they ain’t. I might just be pulling that out of the air, but just a thought.[/quote]Not really. I’m pretty sure even Fukudome would say he’s using the same approach even in the leadoff spot. I think it’s that Fukudome has lost a little power, but also it’s something that will improve the rest of the way. I just thought it was interesting when I saw it last night and figured since i didn’t really have much else new to add that I’d create a few charts instead.
Aside from Soriano, this entire team seems to have lost the ability to hit for power.
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Aside from Soriano, this entire team seems to have lost the ability to hit for power.[/quote]
AVG = SLG… Let’s see what happens
(dying laughing)
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=14733799&topic_id=11493214&c_id=mlb
[quote name=Rice Cube]I also agree with Mish’s link from the last thread that they might as well let Colvin figure shit out in Iowa and have Baker be the fifth OF. Don’t know who they’d call up to replace Colvin though.[/quote]
Maybe they use him for Doug Davis’ spot and carry an extra pitcher?
[quote name=GBTS](dying laughing)
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=14733799&topic_id=11493214&c_id=mlb/quote
Inappropriate, not a laughing matter.
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]Maybe they use him for Doug Davis’ spot and carry an extra pitcher?[/quote]
14 pitchers? That seems weird.
Rays —> first place by themselves if the Royals keep this up. Uncanny.
I’m going to guess the Cubs are at least 8 games under .500 by the time the next homestand begins. 3 at home vs the Giants, 2 @ Reds, 2 @ Marlins, 3 @ Red Sox. I think 3-7 would be a good performance over these 10 games for this team.
Only the Twins and Astros have a worse Pythag record than the Cubs. This team had a chance of being decent this year with a good possibility of sucking. We see which way they went.
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Aside from Soriano, this entire team seems to have lost the ability to hit for power.[/quote]
I still can’t get over Soriano’s .277 OBP (prior to today’s 2-3). His slugging is almost twice what his OBP is. (dying laughing)
(dying laughing) @ the Berkman avatar
The new MO bunt signal (RC plus some help from Ryno)
[quote name=mb21]The new MO bunt signal (RC plus some help from Ryno)
Honestly this one was all Ryno. I just provided the idea and he made what I did look like a four-year-old crayon drawing.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Rays —> first place by themselves if the Royals keep this up. Uncanny.[/quote]Hosmer —-> Beast
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_05_12_slnmlb_chnmlb_1&mode=recap&c_id=chc&partnerId=rss_chc
I love the headline: Inability to cash in haunting inconsistent Cubs
They lost 9-1. The inability to cash in was NOT why they lost today. I’ve been thinking a little about the game today and I have an idea. I think they lost because of the 9 runs they allowed. What do you guys think?
[quote name=mb21]http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_05_12_slnmlb_chnmlb_1&mode=recap&c_id=chc&partnerId=rss_chc
I love the headline: Inability to cash in haunting inconsistent Cubs
They lost 9-1. The inability to cash in was NOT why they lost today. I’ve been thinking a little about the game today and I have an idea. I think they lost because of the 9 runs they allowed. What do you guys think?[/quote]
I think they lost because of that, and the fact that they couldn’t score more than that one run. Never mind trying to score more than nine runs.
Agreed, RC. It’s not JUST the 9 runs allowed, but the idea that an inability to cash in cost them today’s game is laughable. They only had 10 baserunners today. I think average is about 12.
I thought it was a bit too pessimistic to call this version of the Cubs a bad offense, but after watching them struggle for almost a month and a half, it’s pretty apt. I’m sure they’ve had their share of shitty luck but this team is just so painful to watch because they’re so bad at almost everything. Depressing.
Jack’s blog:
[quote name=Rice Cube]I thought it was a bit too pessimistic to call this version of the Cubs a bad offense, but after watching them struggle for almost a month and a half, it’s pretty apt. I’m sure they’ve had their share of shitty luck but this team is just so painful to watch because they’re so bad at almost everything. Depressing.[/quote]You know how confident I was entering the season this offense was below average. I expect them to be about the same going forward. While they’ve had some bad luck in terms of scoring runners on base, they also entered the day tied with two other teams for the top BABIP in all of baseball. They’ve also had the second highest line drive rate so it hasn’t been luck, but they won’t continue to have a line drive rate as they’ve had. At least it’s not very likely anyway. Only one team since 2008 has had a comparable line drive rate to what the Cubs have so far this year (2008 Dodgers).
[quote name=Berselius]
[/quote]
This should be the new image when (if) the Cubs win.
Fangraphs did a pretty good thing about Kosuke a while back: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fukudomes-oddly-productive-start/ Basically, in past years he’s hit the ball in the air in April and on the ground thereafter, but this year he had an April wOBA of a billion in spite of never hitting anything in the air. Granted, that article was from a few weeks ago now, but I’m too lazy to look up the new numbers, so instead I’ll just assume that it’s still true.
As for the offense, these guys were barely clinging to .500 back when Babe Ruth was leading off every inning. Now the guys who we never really expected to hit very much aren’t hitting very much, and of the guys who we expected to hit, one still isn’t really and one’s injured.
People around here were saying before the season that in order for this team to contend, it needed no injuries, a career year from a player or two, and everybody else to stay solid. Instead, half the team is shakily mediocre, a few are performing near their career lows, and the other two-thirds are injured. That’s like 126% of the team that’s doing the opposite of the contending stuff. I predict a -.184 winning percentage from here on out.
(dying laughing) I also thought the Cubs absolutely had to get off to a very good start considering their schedule. Only the Reds in the NL have had an easier schedule so far according to BRef’s SOS (Strength Of Schedule). As a result, the Cubs have the worst SRS (Simple Rating System) in the NL. Among all teams, only Tampa Bay and Cincy have had easier schedules and only the Twins have a lower SRS.
Notable CHC minor league performances:
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Notable CHC minor league performances:[/quote]Cool story bro.
Guys, I heard that Brandon Guyer got called up by the Rays.
Does my name work?
Fuck yeah!
[quote name=WaLi]Does my name work?[/quote]Is it a lazy latin?
[quote name=GBTS]Is it a lazy latin?[/quote](dying laughing)
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Guys, I heard that Brandon Guyer got called up by the Rays.[/quote]
And sent down, but he did hit a HR.
IT’S FAGET, FAGET
GOTTA GET DOWN ON FAGET
EVERYFAGET LOOKIN FORWARD
TO THE FAGET
FAGET, FAGET
GETTIN DOWN ON FAGET
EVERYFAGET LOOKIN FORWARD
TO THE FAGET
FAGETIN, FAGETIN (YEAH)
FAGETIN, FAGETIN (YEAH)
FAGET, FAGET, FAGET, FAGET
LOOKIN FORWARD TO THE FAGET
[quote name=Mish]And sent down, but he did hit a HR.[/quote]I couldn’t ask for another. Groove is in the heart.
Have I said that the Sam Fuld love from Rays fans has changed my opinion about Cubs fans? I used to think they were the only ones who so openly loved the scrappy white guys who didn’t have much talent, but I was proven wrong with this one. And then some. Not too surprisingly, Sam Fuld has returned to sucking.
I’d also add that Sam Fuld said the Cubs wanted him to swing, but he’s taken significantly fewer walks with the Rays than he did in his time in Chicago or the Cubs minor league system. Same is true for Ryan Theriot who said the same thing.
So while it’s fun to bash the Cubs, I think we can throw the comments from those two out and laugh. They’ve each been less patient away from Chicago than they were with them.
[quote name=GBTS]IT’S FAGET, FAGET
GOTTA GET DOWN ON FAGET
EVERYFAGET LOOKIN FORWARD
TO THE FAGET
FAGET, FAGET
GETTIN DOWN ON FAGET
EVERYFAGET LOOKIN FORWARD
TO THE FAGET
FAGETIN, FAGETIN (YEAH)
FAGETIN, FAGETIN (YEAH)
FAGET, FAGET, FAGET, FAGET
LOOKIN FORWARD TO THE FAGET[/quote]
Which faget can I take?
Don’t fret, precious, I’m here. Step away from the window. Go back to sleep.
[quote name=mb21]
it’s fun to bash the Cubs.[/quote]Winnowed.
[quote name=mb21]Have I
said thatthe Sam Fuld lovefrom Rays fans has changed my opinion about Cubs fans? Iused to think they were the only ones whoso openly loved the scrappy white guys who didn’t have much talent, but I was proven wrong with this one. And then some.Not too surprisingly, Sam Fuld has returned to sucking.I’d also add that Sam Fuld said the Cubs wanted him to swing, but he’s taken significantly fewer walks with the Rays than he did in his time in Chicago or the Cubs minor league system. Same is true for Ryan Theriot who said the same thing.
So while it’s fun to bash the Cubs, I think we can throw the comments from those two out and laugh. They’ve each been less patient away from Chicago than they were with them.[/quote].
[quote name=mb21]They’ve each been less patient away from Chicago than they were with them.[/quote]
I never thought they were that good, but they had their moments. However, one wonders if the sudden turn of stardom took to their heads and they abandoned what made them useful (getting on base) in favor of trying to always get that big hit.
I didn’t really have the time or interest to look at the number of pitches they faced per PA nor their swing% at crap, but I imagine you’d see the pitches go down and swing% go up if their patience were truly lacking these days…
It kind of reminds me of how Omar Epps-Willie Mays Hayes suddenly thought he was a slugger and kept flying out to the warning track. Some people may think the second Major League movie is crap, and it definitely isn’t as good as the first one, but I kinda liked it.
new thread: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/how-much-have-the-injuries-cost-the-cubs-and-projecting-doug-davis.html
Fuld is swinging at about the same number of pitches. Theriot slightly higher, but basically the same.