“We will have financial flexibility,” Hoyer said. “We’ve been diligent to make sure we do have flexibility and we’re efficient going forward. We’ll obviously be active in the free agent market. That’s a big part of our research and work now is evaluating free agents. We have some money to spend and we’ll focus on it heavily.” – Jed Hoyer
The Cubs currently have about $69 million on the books for 2013. This includes the players under contract, estimated salaries for arbitration eligible players, auto-renewals and the 15 on the 40-man roster who aren't on the active roster. Their 2012 payroll was about $108 million, which was down considerably from 2011. It's entirely possible the Cubs may bump up the payroll back to where it was prior to this season, but realistically speaking we should probably expect it to remain at or below $110 million.
If they plan to spend $110 million they have about $40 million to spend. What could they spend it on?
I would guess the Cubs feel confident behind the plate with Welington Castillo despite the numbers of errors he's made this year (7). These are the teams who have made 7 or fewer errors from behind the plate: Angels (7), Rangers (7), Reds (6), Twins (6), Phillies (6), Blue Jays (6), Braves (5) and Cardinals (5). Those teams have had an average of about 1200 chances and they've made no more errors than Castillo has while having only 347 chances. Cubs catchers as a group are near the bottom in just about every defensive statistic.
Castillo is likely to provide better than replacement level production and possibly be as good as a league average player so I just don't see the Cubs going out and spending money on this position.
They won't at 1st base, 2nd base or SS either. Anthony Rizzo, Darwin Barney and Starlin Castro will be in the Cubs infield in 2013. Most of the infield will remain unchanged from this past year with the exception of Castillo taking over for Geovany Soto.
The Cubs have tried to trade Alfonso Soriano and found only the Giants who were interested. Soriano exercised his no-trade rights to prevent the trade and it's not likely the Cubs will find another taker. At this point Soriano is better than what most people give him credit for, but that's a huge committment to make. The Cubs will probably continue to try to move him, but Soriano will be selective in which team he would be willing to be traded to. Odds are he's the Cubs left fielder in 2013 and probably in 2014.
David DeJesus could play CF or RF, but he'll be playing one of those positions.
That leaves 3rd base and CF. These are the two positions the Cubs will more than likely to look to add through free agency. Josh Vitters has had a miserable season and Brett Jackson strikes out way too much. I wouldn't say that the Cubs have turned the page on either of them. They could get another chance, but it's likely both will be back at AAA next year and it's even possible one or both could be traded this offseason. Thoyer has shown no attachment to former 1st round picks by Jim Hendry.
If the White Sox don't exercise Kevin Youkilis' 2013 option for $13 million I could see the Cubs signing him to a 2 or 3 year deal. Whether or not the White Sox will exercise it is anybody's guess. It's a safe bet that Youkilis won't be worth that much money, but Kenny Williams doesn't mind throwing money away. David Wright is the big name free agent at this position, but there's no way the Mets don't exercise his $16 million option considering Wright is in the middle of one of the best seasons of his career.
There are two other free agens who might be a little interesting: Placido Polanco and Mark Reynolds. Polanco only has a $5.5 million option and while he's nowhere near as good as he once was, I could see that being exercised. Mark Reynolds will look like a contact hitter compared to Brett Jackson and I can't imagine his option would be exercised.
My money is on Kevin Youkilis. The Cubs sign him to a 3-year deal, which allows time for Javier Baez or Christian Villanueva to continue developing.
The Cubs could target a CF or a RF. There are a couple CF who intrigue me. Michael Bourn is enjoying his best season (fWAR and rWAR). I honestly have no idea how much money it would take to acquire this guy, but the improvement he'd add to the Cubs defense would be tremendous. He's about average at the plate, but fantastic defensively. I still think defense is undervalued so I don't think he'll command the type of contract that his past WAR suggests he should. If the Cubs can grab him for an under market contract I would love it. I also think they'll have interest in him.
The other is BJ Upton who I think the Cubs will have interest in too. He's not going to get the contract that Bourn will. Upton is the better hitter, but not by all that much. Especially when you think back to Upton's age 22 season and how he was a future superstar. That never happened, but he's still an above average player. His defense is below average.
There are a bunch of other outfielders available who you could put in RF and move DeJesus to CF, but I think the Cubs would prefer to keep DeJesus in RF.
The Cubs rotation is a box of mess. It can't be covered in depth in this article. Someone should start a blog about the bag of shit Cubs rotation. It would be a full time job. There are a few good starting pitchers available that you can check out here. Fortunately for the Cubs, most of those are better than Justin Germano, Chris Rusin, Chris Volstad and Jason Berken.
from the last thread…
@ Rice Cube:
I have no problem with the streak as it is. SS is a different position and shouldn’t be considered. You could look at any streak this long and there will be a handful of plays that could have gone either way (hit or error). You don’t get to this many games without a friendly call here or there.
I think the record for 2B is 157.
I was hoping somewhat irrationally that the Cubs blow their load on Zack Greinke but I think the Angels are going to extend him. That leaves a couple guys (Haren and Ervin Santana) who could be let go, I’m not sure if those would come with qualifying offers or not. I’m mostly looking at guys who won’t cost a draft pick, only money.
I think Youk sounds like a good sign, as long as his contract is under $6MM per year or so.
I bet what you say about Barney getting some breaks applies just as well to Polanco’s streak. Not a big deal.
I could see them turning Soriano into a bench bat if he struggles. I really don’t know. He’s not that bad that he’s bench worthy, but there are probably upgrades available. If they got a young guy they really liked who played left, I could see them dropping him and eating it. But you’re probably right that they’ll just leave well-enough alone there. I could see an upgrade at 2B, maybe, if they got the right opportunity. Pitching is obviously where they need the most help.
Calcaterra’s Twitter blog:
I like Anibal Sanchez. Cubs should sign him. Maybe also McCarthy if his head is OK.
I figured if the last thread was still goping when I got the kid to bed tonight then I’d volunteer to write a guest post if you’d have it. But you saved me. Thanks.
Youk makes sense, given their propensity for people that Theo has liked in the past.
Hey, where’s Dylan? Shouldn’t he be telling us about the quality of the back up infielders in Daytona and projecting which ones will be up for employee of the month at Lowes next June?
@ SVB:
That’s based purely on McCarthy’s Twitter feed, isn’t it?
@ josh:
An upgrade at 2B that might come cheap might be Kelly Johnson even though he’s stunk up the joint so far in Toronto. But I don’t know if what he can put up with his bat in a bounce-back year would trump what Barney can provide with the glove…
Youk appears to have accumulated just 1.2 rWAR this year so I think my less than $6MM/year estimate could work if Youk wants to play for a shitty team. He’s got to be on his last legs though and I don’t know how many players like him would want to come to the rebuilding Cubs unless they had no other option.
@ SVB:
Go ahead and write it if you’d like to. You can send it to me and I’ll publish it.
Check out the first comment (dying laughing)
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html
I’ve heard the White Sox will not be picking up Youk’s option. This is where the fans’ steadfast refusal to go to that ballpark is going to cost them players that could still be very useful. Peavy’s probably not coming back either. AJ could, but he’d have to sign a team friendly deal, and from what I’ve heard he wants to parlay this season into one last payday, so I think he’s gone too.
Bobby V news:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/27/red-sox-gm-admits-that-hes-conducting-a-managerial-search-this-offseason/
Unexpected that they’d be so transparent about it before firing him first.
I’d very much like to see them sign Youk to a modest deal with some incentives that could make it a great deal for him if he hits like we know he can (and stays relatively healthy).
I think they bring Valbuena back since he can get some days playing against righties to help Youk last the full season.
Also, I’ve always liked Youkilis since he was part of the core of my keeper league along with Votto for many years.
@ Aisle424:
Peavy would be nice, but cost a shitload and I don’t really think he’ll be worth it. AJ wouldn’t be a bad sign if the price was OK. I like the idea of signing Youk. He’ll add some OBP and some pop. He’s not as good defensively these days. If they could get him on a 3-year deal for $24 million or less I’d be pretty happy with that.
A move to the NL for Youk will help his offense a lot too. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a .360ish wOBA out of him if he played 81 games at Wrigley.
The outfield situation is a bit fluid. They seem like they are going to give Sappelt every opportunity to be their 4th outfielder, so signing someone like Bourn means that jackson will be back at AAA again until they can move DeJesus or Soriano to clear space.
I don’t know if they get proper value for either of those guys (maybe at the deadline for Soriano if he picks up next season where he left off this year and they still eat a ton of his contract), so that seems unlikely to me.
I think they get someone like Cody Ross. Cheap and you might be able to flip him later like they did with Maholm when Jackson makes his almost inevitable appearance again next year.
Aren’t Peavy and AJ a combined 150 years old?
Didn’t the White Sox get a new GM?
@ Aisle424:
I think you’re probably right. Expecting Bourn is probably expecting a little much. I also expect they’ll give Jackson another shot, but I think Vitters has played his way out of the future. I expect he’ll be traded this offseason.
@ Suburban kid:
Aren’t you full of questions?
Peavy is 31.
The White Sox did get a new GM, but they promoted Williams so I doubt he’d out of the decision making process.
I don’t watch much AL ball, but Simmons spent the year complaining about how Youk couldn’t play third, stay healthy, and hit all at the same time. is there any kernel of truth to that?
Curious to see what the D-Backs would want for Justin Upton and if Thoyer could put a package together to get him, especially given what’s coming out about how Upton’s thumb was bothering him pretty much all year.
@ sitrick2:
Just realized that Upton is younger than Brett Jackson.
Otherwise I’d throw Vitters, Jackson and Matt Garza at the D’Backs. Though I presume the Cubs would still be interested in acquiring more pitching, but if you have a shot at a game-changing talent…
@ Rice Cube:
Oh wait, Upton’s a year older. Derp moment.
McCarthy might try a pitcher’s helmet:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/27/brandon-mccarthy-might-try-a-pitching-helmet-but-doesnt-think-they-should-be-mandatory/
I liked the comment:
@ sitrick2:
Youk’s health has always been an issue, so I’m sure it’s more or less true. But that’s also the only reason why he could possibly be in a price range the Cubs don’t mind. Like I said, I’d want something with some incentives that aren’t necessarily hard to reach for a healthy player, but would give them some protection from a drastic injury or drop in production.
Is suspect that a good amount of their FA money will go to pitching. I think we can rule out McCarthy just because they’d have to put too many eggs in one basket for that and like MB said, there are basically four to five open spots in the rotation depending on Garza’s health.
I figure they’ll try to land guys like Bedard, Sheets, Young, Liriano, or Lohse. It wouldn’t surprise me if they negotiate with all of them and land at least 2 of them.
I also suspect Marmol will be dealt in the off-season, so an aging closer might be part of a FA spend as well.
Fister —> 9 consecutive K’s
/AL record
Wow. Cubs haven’t won out west this year.
Rockies —> 2 x 100pt bunts
Why am I even watching this shit?
mb21 wrote:
(dying laughing). Three infield hits sandwiching a bomb to left.
(dying laughing) @ all the infield hits.
Wasn’t Greenberg’s only PA in Miami?
@ mb21:
Indeed. Closure.
mb21 wrote:
I thought it was at Wrigley – could swear I pictured it in my mind – but I actually bothered to look it up and it was in Miami.
That was a nice hit.
Everything I have heard says AJ is out at the White Sox after this year. What I have heard is that pretty much every swinging dick in that FO and clubhouse hates him passionately. There’s also suspicion that his newfound power stroke will earn him some vacation time in the near future.
Cubs should bring Michael Barrett back as catching instructor and then sign AJ. That would be entertaining, at least.
@ SVB:
Would Barrett punch AJ every time he did something wrong? That could be a reality show on CSN.
@ sitrick2:
Yes, Justin Upton please.
Isn’t Dan Haren going to be on the SP market?
I wonder what it would take to get Upton. I know RC speculated earlier. I’m guessing it would take Jackson, Baez and Vitters. Maybe a starting pitcher too.
@ mb21:
they have kubel and young under contract for next season, with adam eaton stepping in at the other spot. not sure how much they would want bjax (aka mark reynolds 2.0). I think garza and baez would be talked about. garza/kennedy at the top of the rotation, followed by cahill and some combination of miley, bauer, skaggs, and corbin.
@ GW:
I’d pull the trigger on a Garza-Baez + some throw-ins in a second
I’m not a huge fan of getting Justin Upton.
Way too inconsistent. He’ll be a younger Soriano. Fans will hate him because expectations will be he’s the guy from 2011 year in and year out, and I have no confidence he can deliver on that.
@ GW:
I’d be surprised if they trade Upton for 7 years of club control and one of them being highly paid.
This is what playoff baseball is about.
What’s Vitters’ wRC+ now?
Jesus, how fucking long do the Mets play for?
GBTS wrote:
?
@ GBTS:
Aha! Sorry, syntax error (dying laughing)
A 324 game season would be a bit nuts.
Josh Vitters wRC+-o-meter: -7
@ mb21:
I know you would, but club control isn’t worth a damn if the players are replacement level. Hey, maybe vitters will be better than that, and if they think so they can certainly get him along with the other two I mentioned, I have no doubt. Thing is, they’ve given indications at being frustrated by the high K guys in recent years, having purged reynolds for a reliever, and kelly johnson (who was on his way to being a type b) for aaron hill (who seemed absolutely done at the time). I just don’t think they would want bjax. And we know they had talks about garza at the deadline.
Image is below the race to the top below
@ GW:
I mentioned Vitters as more of a throw in. You should know I don’t see him as much of anything. You may be right about the Dbacks and high K’s, but they aren’t going to trade Upton for Garza plus Baez. At least they shouldn’t. I hope they do because that’s a trade I’d make in a heartbeat. Upton will make less money than Garza and be more productive. The Cubs would be better because of this trade now and in the next few years and the Dbacks would be worse (considerably worse after 2013).
Also, I thought it was made clear following Olney’s nonsensical Garza/Upton tweet that the two sides were not discussing a trade involving those players. Multiple sources confirmed this at the time. Towers also confirmed this. It was announced about 5 days before the deadline that Garza was being shut down. I don’t know if Olney was just making stuff up or not, but that would be my guess.
Considering Garza hasn’t pitched since July, I don’t think the Cubs could get a replacement level player in return unless they paid some of his contract. Garza’s trade value right isn’t much higher than Chris Volstad’s. Even if Garza was healthy, he plus Baez for Upton is wishful thinking.
When was the last time a team traded for a pitcher with an arm injury at the trade deadline? I’m sure it’s happened in recent years though I can’t think of any off the top of my head. When was the last time a team traded for a pitcher with an arm injury and gave up someone the caliber of Justin Upton?
Maybe those two teams did have talks and Garza came up, but Garza wasn’t the centerpiece of the deal (my guess is that it would have been Castro and the Cubs would have gotten some nice prospects too).
bowden reported dbacks interest in garza, too. i’m not saying that a garza plus package for upton was the main topic of discussion (though I’m much less confident than you are), just saying they have shown interest.
@ mb21:
Maybe they can snooker the Dodgers, after all they just took on the national debt in player contracts and one of them was broken.
@ mb21:
well, the bosox were rumored to get harden last year, and ended up getting bedard. both of those guys are walking injuries, even if they weren’t hurt at the time (dying laughing)
8 of the last 10 seasons Towers was the Padres GM the Padres had more strikeouts than the average team and several of those years they were among the leaders.
GW, have you seen any comments from their front office about reducing strikeouts? Based on Towers teams in San Diego I don’t think he cared too much about a lot of strikeouts, but I wonder if he does now if he thinks that was part of why the Padres weren’t that good.
mb21 wrote:
trading upton would be silly, but the reports keep coming up. i’m not saying i think it will get done, but i think that’s where it would start.
@ mb21:
i can’t point you to a specific report, but there were definitely rumblings when the kj and reynolds trades were going down.
i lied
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kelly-johnsons-trade-kevin-towers-and-strikeouts/
@ GW:
That’s the thing, they weren’t hurt at the time. Lots of injury prone players are traded when they’re healthy. Trading such a player when they’re healthy is seen by teams who own the contract as a wise decision. I’m wondering who trades for injured pitchers (pitchers whose injures are arm related like Garza’s).
Maybe the two sides had discussions and what a couple sources learned was Garza and Upton, but Garza wasn’t the centerpiece in that trade. I wouldn’t even buy Garza being a centerpiece in a trade for Upton if Garza was healthy. The Cubs wanted to trade Garza so it wouldn’t surprise me if they were discussing something and begged the Dbacks to take Garza too. I don’t know what happened. I assume there was no discussion because it’s crazy talk. I don’t remember who it was on Baseball Prospectus (not KG), but on twitter they were laughing about this trade idea from Olney and someone suggested maybe it was Castro and they responded that Castro for Upton wasn’t even a fair deal. I disagree with that, but I think Castro for Upton is much more fair than Garza plus Baez for Upton. I wouldn’t make the trade, but it’s more even.
@ mb21:
you’ve made your feelings well known on garza getting traded with the injury. i’m not convinced.
@ GW:
That at least addresses what I was interested in seeing, but it also points out that Towers has had a history with high strikeout hitters and hasn’t had a problem with it.
the cubs weren’t begging anyone to take garza. that’s nonsense. on the contrary, they were asking way too much given the injury.
@ mb21:
can’t be much clearer than that (and he’s been pretty consistent once he got to the dbacks). could be that his feelings have evolved on the issue, and it could also be that he got stuck in san diego based on the way players developed…
GW wrote:
Isn’t this what I’ve said? That Garza/Baez isn’t close to enough doesn’t mean that they wouldn’t be a part of a deal though I do think Garza would be more of a throw-in. Question is, if it starts with those two, who else gets added? The Cubs don’t have much and trading the prospects they have acquired doesn’t make a whole lot of sense given the front office’s plans.
@ GW:
This was true even before the injury. The Tigers ended up trading Jacob Turner for Anibal Sanchez, while the Cubs wanted them to give up Turner plus Castellanos based on what I remember.
@ mb21:
it does if upton is involved, given the stated desire for “impact talent”
mb21 wrote:
btw, the answer to this is arodys vizcaino (dying laughing). peavy was hurt when he was traded to the white sox, though it was an ankle iirc.
@ GW:
It doesn’t make any sense that a team would be interested enough in a pitcher with an arm injury that they’d give up anything of value. Entering free agency these guys get $1-3 million contracts for a reason. They’re not traded very often because teams have no interest in footing the bill of the rehab. There’s no guarantee the injury doesn’t get worse (arm injuries have a tendency to do that).
Garza was shut down until about August 10th at which point he’d have needed at least 10 days to get ready (probably closer to 20).
Would some team have been willing to trade for him? Sure. Teams sign players coming off injury so we know some teams would be interested, but we also know they’d not have been willing to give up much of anything.
i think it’s likely that many of the teams that may have expressed interested in Garza were considering a waiver trade in August after he returned from the DL.
@ mb21:
yes, still know your opinion. and i still thinks its much more likely that he gets traded midseason after proven healthy. i just wouldn’t be surprised if he’s moved in the offseason.
@ GW:
Good call on Vizcaino. His injury is why we liked that trade so much (not that he’s injured of course). He wasn’t traded for fair value though the Braves did get a superstar in Reed Johnson.
@ Rice Cube:
that guy has been a revelation for the tigers
uh oh… josh cribbs just got decapitated.
@ GW:
That annoys me to no end. Those helmets aren’t supposed to come off so easily.
Considering that Aaron Hill is the Dbacks 2b, I’d expect they’d ask for Barney to be part of an Upton trade.
If they want pitching, I’d give them every pitcher on our roster that started a game this year for Upton.
Bo Porter ——–> Astros Manager after the season
Manny Acta ———> Now one of the 47%
Bo Porter made his big league debut with the Cubs.
Holy shit http://www.suntimes.com/15413508-761/sons-of-anarchy-actor-kills-landlady-himself-police-say.html
Uh, that tops my pizza and beer post that I was about to make……
http://www.obstructedview.net/forums/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=5
Reggie Jackson seems like a cheat here: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120919&content_id=38655100&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
Also, I was unaware that Ted Williams’ mother was Mexican. I bet that wasn’t mentioned in Boston’s press kit.
The White Sox forgot to keep winning.
@ Rice Cube:
Fan apathy retroactively justified!!
I really don’t think the Cubs need to try to go out and get an “impact player” this year. What would that really do? Allow the Cubs to only finish 18 games out of first? This year has been the best Cubs season that I can remember in a while.
Castro is still playing fine, Samardzija had a very nice first season as a starter, and Rizzo has been amazing at the major league level. In addition to that, the Cubs were able to make some nice trades to acquire some young talent as the farm system begins to project happiness for the future.
Were the losses really that painful that we can’t stand one more year like 2012? I really don’t want to see Thoyer trade away any of the new, young talent that the Cubs just started to amass. I don’t mind seeing the Cubs spend a little money to get enough reliable players to fill out the roster, guys like Youks and such. And if they only lost 90 games, that would be great, but I care a lot more about how Thoyer attempts to continue to build up the farm system. After all…
http://qkme.me/3r4028
On an unrelated note, I wouldn’t mind Eric Chavez being on the Cubs bench next year. Don’t need a reason; I just like the idea.
i think theo is right about this. always look to add impact talent no matter what your current window of contention given that it’s so infrequently available.
@ mb21:
crazy
@ SVB:
hill was actually pretty damn good this year, and he is under contract for next year.
and their pitching is pretty good, at least in mid/back of the rotation types. 3B is a hole, as is SS.
5 Run Home Run wrote:
Would you ask Tom Petty that question?
@ WaLi:
Even the losers get lucky sometimes.
@ GW:
THIS. Rebuilding the farm doesn’t mean you can’t continue to acquire MLB talent through FA. Ricketts is bankrolling this team like they play in Topeka.
5 Run Home Run wrote:
I have no problem if they acquire an impact player or two through free agency, but I see little point in acquiring one through a trade unless it’s as friendly as a Garza/Baez for Upton deal. They can sign a player for multiple years who can help them contend when they are contenders. If they’re waiting to get an all Cubs minor league team that can contend, odds are they’ll be waiting a very long time and it probably won’t happen. Even the Rays supplemented their awesome player development system with free agents.
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
This statement seems a bit unfair as it seems like baseball ops get a ton to spend, it’s just that Ricketts is leaving the decision of whether and how to spend that money to the smart guys running the show.
Also, maybe my standards are too high but in the position player department there doesn’t seem to be much I’d want to throw $$ at for the 2013 or 2014 classes. The pitching market looks intriguing though assuming the names on that list don’t get extensions.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Agreed. Free agent classes are going to be sparse for a few years, take the opportunities when you can. You never know when adding a Josh Hamilton in the off-season can put you in a position to actually trade up and win the division by the ASB. Barring a few shitty players, there are some strong players on the team. They’re not going to be a flashy team anytime soon, but I could see them improving dramatically with a few aquisitions.
@ Rice Cube:
That’s true. But there’s no reason to have the “rob Peter to pay Paul” approach. The Cubs can afford to spend on development and FA.
There aren’t flashy names on those lists, but there are some guys who could do a job for a season or two and maybe do a bit better than that. Plus like Josh points out, you can always sign a guy with an eye towards dealing him at the deadline when the Cubs will certainly be out of the race.
The late 90s Yankees championships teams had Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettite who were all homegrown talent. They added free agents around them.
I’m sure Theo has mentioned impact talent a million times, but the comments I remember from him about it had to do with the minor league system (we need more talent. we lack impact talent.)
I think Thoyer are partly just trying to feed the Hope Monster (he pays the bills) and partly I think that they would add an impact talent if they had the opportunity. I don’t see them gutting the minors completely to do it, but I bet they have a list of players they aren’t as high on as the previous FO was (B Jax maybe on that list. Colvin obviously was).
@ mb21:
Posada too!
I think it’s noble to build from the ground up but the Cubs definitely have the money to do both, and as MO says, while the names on those lists aren’t sexy, the Cubs can probably only do the buy-low/sell-high free agent approach for another season before they have to start plopping down the $. The problem I see (and I believe Theo and Jed have talked about this) is that there aren’t that many marquee free agents becoming available because they’re being locked up by their parent teams. Also a lot of those free agents are going to be on the wrong side of 30.
That’s why I hope the Cubs have a shot at throwing gobs of money at a guy like Zack Greinke while also trying to lure the mid-tier starters over. They might only win 75 or 80 games next year with those guys and lose out on a larger draft spending pool but it makes sense to grab the impact talent and feed the Hope Monster and pray that Hope Monster showers the team with some good luck here and there.
@ mb21:
If you have the money, doing both seems like the best option. The Pirates and Nats can’t do that, but that’s because they have no payroll. The Cubs should be able to do both.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
This is my biggest complaint so far. The list of teams who have successfully rebuilt their organization is small. The list of those teams who have done it without free agency is either smaller or non-existent.
I know Theo has said once the organization begins to produce impact talent (apparently on an annual basis for some reason) then they’ll spend big in free agency. I don’t get that comment. Most organizations don’t produce impact talent annually. I’d say you get lucky when that happens because even good player development teams don’t have that happen on a regular basis. Perhaps all Theo means when he says impact talent is someone along the lines of Darwin Barney or better. I could see that. League average or better for the purposes of rebuilding a team may in fact be impact talent. You’d hope at least one or two of them are MVP caliber talents though.
Rice Cube wrote:
I thought I mentioned him, but apparently didn’t. (dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
Being tied to a contract just means that the Cubs may have to sacrifice some young talent to get them. I don’t see them doing that this year, but I could see them making such moves down the road.
Re: trading for Justin Upton, the idea sounds awesome because I too get tired of watching shitty MLB products (imagine that) but it seems like with the Cubs system so bare you’d be breaking even at best, with Upton doing Upton things at Wrigley while having to fill another gaping hole in the farm.
I get the sense that most fans have a much higher threshold for who counts as an “impact player” than most GM’s do.
Honestly, I don’t think the Cubs need a whole lot of help from position players. Sounds like certain they’ll grab a 3rd baseman, which they need and from what I can gather, that’s about the extent of their interest in position players. They’ve got a decent catcher and then you’ve got Rizzo, Castro and Barney in the infield. Soriano isn’t great and neither is DeJesus, but both are productive. It seems they’ll give Jackson a shot and hope for the best. Despite his strikeouts he’s still managed to be a bit better than replaced (fWAR) and will almost certainly improve.
They need a whole shitload of talent in the rotation though. Year in and year out Edwin Jackson proves he’s better than I think he is and would be a good pickup for the Cubs. So would Greinke of course, but I doubt he’ll want to play for the Cubs (fwiw, Justin Upton’s no-trade clause includes the Cubs). Speaking of that, I wonder why he included the Cubs. Think it had anything to do with seeing how Dusty Baker, Corey Patterson, LaTroy Hawkins and Jack Jones were treated?
@ josh:
Right, I think they have to use the first half of their 5-year contract to build depth before trading it all away (dying laughing)
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I’ll admit that I probably think of impact talent as something much more productive than most GMs do. When I hear “impact talent” I’m thinking all-star caliber player and above. I have a feeling when GMs say it they’re talking about people who can produce at a bit better than league average.
@ mb21:
I’d throw some money at Edwin Jackson for sure and I think given enough $ Greinke would want to come in and play.
There’s a few reasons I can think of in regards to putting the Cubs on the no-trade list:
1. They suck.
2. Leverage, since the Cubs are in a large market Upton can try to snag a couple more concessions from Moneybags Ricketts…
3. As you said, the fans suck.
@ Rice Cube:
Depends entirely on what it would cost. If it’s more in line with what I gather is most people’s thoughts on it (based on twitter reactions from some who write for BP, THT and FG) then there’s little incentive. If all it costs is a top prospect and someone who has a year left of control, then it’s a huge win for the Cubs.
So Chad Billingsley might get TJS though he’s trying to avoid it:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/28/chad-billingsley-trying-to-avoid-tommy-john-surgery/
If they can get Garza healthy maybe the Cubs can plunder whatever’s left of the Dodgers’ system (dying laughing)
If they’re trying to build a rotation, then keeping Garza makes sense, right?
@ josh:
Yeah, considering how much Hoyer just stressed the importance of adding pitchers I’d be somewhat surprised to see Garza traded before the season even if he was healthy. He would have been traded at the deadline if he was healthy, but that didn’t happen. Now they’ll wait until the deadline next year.
I doubt Garza would be able to show how truly healthy he was with just spring training anyway. Does this mean whatever extension he might get would be cheaper than previously discussed though? He’d probably still get at least $12MM in arbitration even with the injury but maybe he would accept a discount for financial security with that scare.
@ Rice Cube:
Garza is worth less because of the injury, but I have no idea if he’d accept less in an extension.
@ mb21:
I wonder if the Cubs can make the case to pay him less in arbitration (they’d probably win), save a bit of money and then trade him for whatever decent package they can get. Given the rest of the current in-house options the Cubs have I don’t actually know how eager they are to part with him though.
Also, Lulstad kind of has to be non-tendered, right?
@ Rice Cube:
Garza should not get a raise, but he’ll probably get a small one. His ERA was barely better than average, his FIP below average, his fWAR was only 1.3, rWAR just 1.0 and WARP has him below replacement level (-0.5).
Arbitration takes the last 2 seasons into account and I would presume there’s more weighting toward the most current season. Garza will end up seeing a small raise, but he shouldn’t get much more than $10 million.
If anyone wants free Sirius Internet Radio for a year go here:
http://www.siriusxm.com/freetrial?campaign=CHEVY1YR
Don’t need a credit card or anything. Now you can listen to the Grateful Dead Radio Station 24/7 on your phone or computer!
Edit: Delete the promo code before hitting submit.
I don’t know what they’ll do with Volstad. I doubt they want to pay him millions so I’d guess they non-tender him and see if they can re-sign him to a smaller contract.
@ WaLi:
It says campaign is invalid or expired
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/09/twins-release-tsuyoshi-nishioka.html
Nishioka —> saving face
I deleted the promo code and it worked. Thanks.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/dc-residents-can-remember-exactly-who-they-were-mu,29721/
ROFL
mb21 wrote:
The name that doesn’t fit on his list is Cleveland. Aside from them it reads like a “bang for your buck” list. And his agent reported he would consider accepting a trade to teams on his list. So, no.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=320927104
Rays @ White Sox
I know it’s the Rays, but what the hell. They were only a game back of the Tigers before the day started, and 1.5 back at first pitch. It’s not like they’re out of it. Is the Cell really so crappy and in such a bad location that nobody wants to come out and play?
I’ve been to the Cell once and thought it was nice and had no troubles in the neighborhood. This does not compute.
That wild card thing really worked out this year. It’s going down to the wire in the AL.
GW wrote:
Upton has a relationship (through charities and friendship) with Torri Hunter who has accused Cubs fans of being racist and also has had the Cubs on his no-trade list. Could be a pure coincidence, but when a friend of one of the most outspoken players against Cubs fans racist behavior adds them to his no-trade list it’s a question to consider.
Besides, what else is his agent going to say anyway?
@ Rice Cube:
It’s like Aisle 424 has said, it’s just baffling.
@ GW:
Interestingly enough, Cot’s says his original four were Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland. I wonder whether his agent had a conversation with him about probabilities, and if so, how often he gets to revisit those four names.
@ mb21:
it’s possible, but there is a simpler explanation.
@ GW:
Maybe he just hates the Cubs. I know there are many people on the planet who hate the Cubs (dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
They just don’t give a shit, RC. They had the bases loaded twice with nobody out and the only time the crowd made any noise was when the scoreboard told them to.
People say Cubs fans only go for the experience and don’t care about the game, but the section I was in had these snippets of conversation going on:
These people barely gave a shit about the game and those who were the ones who bothered showing up. They want their team on TV for free and that’s about all.
@ Aisle424:
thats impossible. cubs fans are the only ones who don’t pay attention to the games.
also (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
@ Aisle424:
Ah, you were there last night? I was exasperated at how awful the Sox are with the bases loaded. I gathered that it was because by the time they actually got the bases loaded, the bottom of that lineup was due up and that’s usually an invitation for some free outs. If Shields hadn’t been so wild they probably wouldn’t even have scored.
Sox fans are weird.
@ Rice Cube:
well, it seems like he hates cleveland.
@ GW:
Should send him a DVD of “Major League” so he can fall in love with Cleveland again.
@ Rice Cube:
One of my GF’s cousins got club level seats from work so I got to go for free. He cared, he was all kinds of pissed off through out the game and I know he’s been to at least 6 or 7 games, but the people around us could really give a shit. One family came in the beginning of the 3rd, left before end of the 3rd, came back in the 5th and left again in the 6th.
There were more conversations that were just head scratchingly stupid, and little of it was about baseball. But those snippets were the ones I could remember off the top of my head last night when I got home.
I tried to creat the “Major League” Indian’s roster on the Show but realized I have no idea what the 1B, 2B, SS, LF, starter’s 3-5 and all relief pitcher’s names are.
I also tried to do it with the “Rookie of the Year” Cubs team.
/Nerd
I knew more about what was going on in the game than basically anybody else in the section, and I really didn’t give a shit. I just wanted to watch some baseball that meant something. I actually want Detroit and the Sox to tie for the division.
@ Mucker:
Who, What, Idontgiveadarn, Why, and who cares about the pitchers anyway.
@ Aisle424:
Sox fans might be even more bipolar than Cubs fans, and they actually won something within the past decade.
@ Rice Cube:
To be fair, most of us hate the Cubs.
@ mikeakaleroy:
It’s like the girl that treats you so poorly that you want to say mean things to her before you make up and have angry sex.
@ GW:
I don’t know. I’m not saying he wouldn’t accept a trade. Everybody has a price. I’m just saying that it’s not at all hard to believe that he’s been influenced by a friend who wouldn’t play for the Cubs if they were the only team offering him a job.
@ Aisle424:
(dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
I used to live in Bridgeport. I thought it was really nice. Low rent, not a ton of bars (I know that’s a bad for some, but it keeps things quiet, which I like), direct line to UIC, where I was going to school at the time. Walk to Sox games (also: don’t move your car during Sox games). It’s the neighborhood on the other side of the interstate that has the bad rep more than Bridgeport, I think. You have to encounter brown people in your walk of 100 yards from the El to the stadium.
And the times i’ve gone there since, I found parking to be easy and convenient. There wasn’t even a long wait to get back on the interstate. I think the Cell is easier to get to than Wrigley by a damn sight.
@ josh:
I take the El to get to both stadiums. I don’t see the point of driving and parking in Chicago.
@ mb21:
Worked this morning with the promo code. Glad it still works without it. Cool.
Also, love the Josh Vitters wRC+o-meter
@ Rice Cube:
The El isn’t a viable solution when you’re coming in from the south and have to drive back home after the game (with your elderly parents in tow). I would take the El when I lived there.
Coming from the West, there are a couple of covered Park and Rides out toward O’Hare/Rosemont, and you can El into the City, but that isn’t the case coming up from the South. Add to that, the games we went to was at night, so we’d be standing around in the dark waiting for a Metra train as a best case scenario. So, yeah, it’s nice to have good parking. In terms of Wrigley, you have the same problem, but what they started doing is contracting with hotels in the area so you can rent a parking spot within walking distance. Getting out of Wrigleyville is still such a pain in the ass that after the game we ended up just screwing around for a while before attempting to leave.
I don’t mind driving in the City, but I prefer not to. Taking the Amtrak up is okay if you have a place to sleep, or if you just happen to be able to pack whatever you are doing into that window between when your train arrives and when the one of the trains going back to Chambana leaves, but it’s faster to drive out, even with traffic, usually, since the last train leaves at like 9:40. And that’s assuming you aren’t at a night game.
@ josh:
Oh yeah, if you’re coming in from the burbs and outside of Chicago that makes sense. I actually live in the city though so it’s a bit more convenient. Thankfully the night games end early enough so that the CTA trains and buses are still running, but the Metras at night are few and far between.
@ Aisle424:
By far the most offensive thing you overheard was the Corona/Craft beer one.
@ Arsenic Cube:
So I was at Thai for lunch today and my wife orders green curry. I finish my lunch first because I eat exteremely quick. My wife was nice enough to give me her rice she wasn’t going to eat which was great for me because I love food.
So I ate it and we get to talking and she starts talking about how they are finding out about Arsenic in rice. Rice, Rice milk, baby formula (that uses rice syrup), etc. Shit’s crazy. There isn’t anything out there that is safe to eat any more (dying laughing).
In other news, my wife is trying to kill me.
@ WaLi:
What doesn’t kill you will make you stronger. Or incapacitate you for life.
I must be immune to arsenic then.
@ Rice Cube:
I think the risk is more long term. Cancer and such.
@ josh:
I have great faith in my immunity and anti-tumor mechanisms.
@ WaLi:
I also like how if you look at it at an angle, it reads “Arsenio Cube” (dying laughing)
The Corona comment was my favorite thing all night. I would have tweeted that one live, but the coverage was inconsistent.
They kept going talking about Summer Shandy is the best beer ever and some other stuff that was just wrong.
@ Rice Cube:
Everyone does.
Until they get sick.
Aisle424 wrote:
The real reason for low attendence? Can’t enjoy the game with out How I Met Your Mother clips in the background, amirite?
@ Aisle424:
Uh. I REALLY dislike Summer Shandy; it’s one of the few beers I can’t even drink at all; I’d easily rather have High Life or Bud Light.
@ Mish:
I’ve seen that on the shelves, but never tried it. The box is trying too hard.
@ Mish:
I wouldn’t buy Summer Shandy, but I don’t think it’s too bad for what it is(although I hvaen’t had it in a while). I much rather have that over a Bud Light. It’s good on a hot summer day when you want water but you also want beer.
It’s the taste. I just can’t abide it.
Mish wrote:
I’ve never had it, but my friends who like real good craft beer (Bell’s, Lagunitas, Oskar Blues, Three Floyds etc.) agree it is awful. I have another friend who loves her cheap-ass beers because that’s what she grew up with who LOVES the stuff. Different tastes for different people.
I just love that some goober thinks he’s all hip and trendy by drinking a Corona.
@ Mish:
Yeah I can understand that. It’s half lemonade half beer. If you go into it expecting beer you will be severely dissapointed.
“My dad is really into gourmet food lately, now he’ll only use fancy ketchup.”
@ WaLi:
That’s what Heinekein Light is for.
@ josh:
Ugh I hate Heinekein. I don’t know if it’s because my roommate in college drank it because he thought he was fancy or if it is just because it is a shitty beer. I’d never buy it. I’ll gladly drink Bud Light over it if I’m paying. The only way I’ll drink it is if it is an open bar and the only non bud/millers drink available is Heinekin.
@ WaLi:
Seems like 6 in one half dozen in the other to me.
@ WaLi:
Ha! That sounds about right. The last time I had a Heineken was at a retreat where it was free. Every time the bartender cracked open a bottle it smelled like Red Line body odor. But it was free and the alternatives sucked.
@ WaLi:
I agree with this. I think it’s because of the transport and green glass bottles, though. I went on the brewery tour in Amsterdam and it tasted like a completely different beer. (Cool story: apparently heineken is the second largest trans-atlantic shipper in the world, behind the US Army.)
@ Rice Cube:
@ josh:
@ WaLi:
@ Mish:
This should have been in the beer thread. You have been warned.
@ Rice Cube:
no MY piss water is the only piss water worth drinking!
@ GW:
My brother-in-law made me try it from draft while we were in France last summer. It was admittedly better than in the states.
New aside with today’s WTF: http://www.obstructedview.net/aside/wrigley-talk-friday-we-barely-mention-the-cubs-and-its-glorious-9-28-12.html
Aisle424 wrote:
fify
WaLi wrote:
Hmmm.
Shandy in Ireland and the UK is half lemonade half beer, but lemonade means something else here. Basically, lemonade = 7UP. Also, it’s something you prepare on your own on a hot day (or maybe ask for at a pub). I don’t think there is a packaged version. Also, it’s something parents let their 14 year olds drink.
@ GW:
It could be like Guinness, which is imported to the US Dom Canada. Irish Guinness >>> Canadian guiness
@ josh:
I always had an easy time with the Devry park and ride when I drove in from WI
Hey Rays fans…
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/28/plans-for-a-fantasy-tampa-bay-rays-ballpark-revealed/
For anyone who saw Fox’s fail today:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/28/jays-starter-chad-jenkins-makes-a-very-unusual-catch/
(dying laughing) @ Granderson’s WTF reaction
@ GBTS:
Does this come with an explanation or do we just assume FOX News is incompetent as usual?
8 innings for Homer Bailey. Something is happening.
@ Berselius:
I’ve looked into that and in my estimation, coming from the South, it was easier to just park off Lake Shore at one of Wrigley’s contracted parking spaces and walk the mile or so in. We did that last time and it was an easy walk and there was no traffic on Lake Shore when we got out, because the people who parked close to Wrigley were still trying to get past the foot and bus traffic.
One out away
Speier was always smiles as the last batter came up. I forgot Dusty was still in the hospital
No hitter
@ Rice Cube:
Something happened.
I also thought it was interesting when Sveum said something about all the evaluations of the prospects and other guys like Valbuena was complete. Not good news for Vitters or Jackson.
@ mb21:
Especially tonight against a righty when he has Sappelt player instead of Jackson.
@ Rice Cube:
FOX was airing a car chase live and apparently without any delay. The driver got out of the car, ran around a little bit and then pulled a gun and shot himself in the head. They cut away quickly but not quickly enough and that was the anchor screaming to cut away because he must have thought what he was seeing was still airing. It then abruptly went to commercial.
@ mb21:
I think they know what they have right now in both of them. Jackson will probably have an opportunity to win a job in the Spring, but will likely start again in AAA. Vitters is now roster filler in the minors.
@ Aisle424:
holy shit! That’s bananas!
@ mb21:
Reds?
@ josh:
The Reds (and Homer Bailey) no-hit the Pirates.
MB21–I sent you a post through your email here and facebook, if you want it.
astros telecast is counting down their top 10 moments of 2012. scott moore is prominently involved (dying laughing)
@ Aisle424:
That’s what I think too. It did sound like Jackson will get a shot to earn a job next year, but could start in AAA. It also sounded like Josh Vitters career in Chicago was short-lived. It seems the Cubs have expectations for him that would be similar to the ones they’d have for me.
@ Rice Cube:
Appropriately enough, it clinched the Pirates not having a winning season, and makes it very likely they’ll have a losing one.
@ SVB:
I definitely want it. I haven’t gotten it yet. Would you mind sending it to dmick89 [at] gmail [dot] com
I probably won’t get a chance to read it or post it until tomorrow, but I will do both sometime in the morning. Thanks.
@ mb21:
I bet your wRC+ would be positive though.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Good. It was annoying me that they might finish over .500 even though they aren’t a very good team. Plus, I have an irrational dislike for them since they beat the shit out of the Cubs when the cubs should have been kicking their ass.
@ Rice Cube:
I still can’t believe how awful he’s been. I had lower expectations than just about anybody here, but even I was expecting a wRC+ higher than 50. (dying laughing)
@ mb21:
now they are busy beating the shit out of each other in instructional league.
@ mb21:
just sent it to you
Sappelt and Wood just won us the Marshall trade if they don’t completely embarrass themselves tonight (dying laughing)
Well, not really, but that was a nice homer.
@ Rice Cube:
Travis Wood got the memo about the draft thing.
Also, Justin Upton.
@ SVB:
Got it.
Soriano has 3 walks. In 3 plate appearances.
mb21 wrote:
The Cubs have gone 8-8 against the Pirates this year.
Why it’s good that two men can’t reproduce together:
@ mb21:
And a hit.
@ SVB:
Bowie was quite good-looking in his younger days.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
josh will be the judge of that
It’s actually really interesting how many teams can still make it to 90 wins this season. Even the Cardinals can get there.
Barney —> error
Before Any of you wised up, I went ahead and registered this. You can pay me later.
Fucking god damn it, fucking link system
bagofshitcubsrotation.tumblr.com
@ Akabari:
(dying laughing) @ sexface
@ GW:
Rizzo is correct.
@ Rice Cube:
What was he thinking when he took this picture?
“Yeah sure, this looks fine. I swear I’m not going to rape you, Mr. Photographer. Just, just….just look into my eyes”
Rice Cube wrote:
(dying laughing) I’m such a dumbass. Based on this comment and Homer pitching well against the Cubs, I thought you were simply implying a general Samardzija-like transformation.
I think the police chief walked across his mound.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/oakland-pitcher-braden-yells-police-181331770–mlb.html
Oh, and speaking of Jagger and Bowie:
Decided to take some josh porn pictures this morning. While walking the dogs I saw this guy coming out of his cocoon.
new shit by SVB: http://www.obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/one-of-the-finest-days-in-cubs-history-september-27-2003.html