Yesterday I posted two polls. The first one was about whether or not you thought the Cubs should extend Starlin Castro and the second one was for how much. Before we get to the results, I wanted to run the numbers using projections. (click the link below to read more)
Starlin Castro is more than likely going to be eligible for arbitration for the first time after the 2012 season. He’ll almost certainly qualify as a super-2 and therefore have 4 years of arbitration. We were looking at a 5-year contract since we’d like to buy out one year of free agency. However, the 5-year contract just buys out his years of club control. My mistake on that one. After this year he’ll have slightly under 2 years of service time and you need 6 before you can file for free agency. He has 1 more year of league minimum and 4 arbitration years.
ZiPS currently projects Castro to have a .328 wOBA the rest of the season. If we use -5 defense, +1 baserunning and 600 plate appearances we get 2.9 WAR for Castro. That’s what we’ll use for his 2012 projection. We should probably factor in aging just a little, but I’m not trying to get a perfect projection. I’m just looking for a ballpark figure so 2.9 will do. Over the next 5 years this is what we get for Castro.
2012: 2.9 WAR
2013: 3.3 WAR
2014: 3.8 WAR
2015: 4.0 WAR
2016: 4.0 WAR
The current value of the win is roughly $4.5 million so if we add 5% inflation for each year we get win values over the next 5 years of $4.7, $5.0, $5.2, $5.5 and $5.7 million. The typical arbitration player makes 40% of his free agent value in his first year of arbitration and then 60% and 80% the next 2 years. Castro will be a super 2 so we’ll use 40/40/60/80.
Factoring that in, we end up with this pay schedule for Castro over the next 5 years.
2012: $.425
2013: $6.5
2014: $7.9
2015: $13.1
2016: $18.4
Total: $46.4
There would be no reason to sign him to that contract since there would be no savings for the Cubs. A typical contract 3 years or longer gives the team 10% off the free agent value. Castro isn’t yet a free agent so we’re going to go with 15%. That is $39.4 million.
Based on expected levels of production using UZR to estimate defense. If we instead use Total Zone, we’d get at least -10, which would lower the overall value (including 15% bonus to the team) of $28.4 million. So let’s split the difference and say 5 years and $28.9 million.
The reality with arbitration is that they base the player’s value on what similar players got in arbitration. The first player I thought of was Jose Reyes. After the 2006 season, Reyes was going to be eligible for arbitration for the first time. The Mets signed him to a 4-year deal worth $23.5 million. During his league minimum years, Reyes batted .285/.321/.427. That was a .332 wOBA or exatly league average over those years (100 wRC+). He was worth 11.3 fWAR. Reyes was also coming off a season in which he hit 19 home runs, which is a big factor in arbitration. Stolen bases, RBI and other traditional metrics are important. Reyes had over 150 stolen bases. Over the previous 2 years, he had 139 RBI, scored 221 times, led the league in triples with 34 (17 each season), stole over 120 bases, and was coming off a season in which he was worth 5.9 rWAR.
Castro won’t touch many of those accomplishments, but it is several years after Reyes signed the extension. However, the value of the win has remained the same since 2007 so the contract Reyes received doesn’t have to be increased. Including the option the Mets had on Reyes, his total deal was worth 5 years and $33.25 million.
Rafael Furcal and Jimmy Rollins also come to mind. Like Reyes and Castro, both got an early start and settled into starting roles. It’s kind of interesting to see how much money each of them made over the same period we’re looking at Castro (final league minimum, 4 additional years).
Rafael Furcal: $.4, $2.2, $3.7, $5.6, $8.7 ($20.65 million total)
Jimmy Rollins: $.45, $2.4, $3.9, $5.0, $8.0 ($19.75 million total)
Jose Reyes: $.4, $2.9, $4.4, $6.1, $9.3 ($23.1 million total)
Not even $3.5 million difference from the highest (Reyes) and Rollins (the lowest). The average of the 3 is $21.2 million. Castro’s wRC+ is 100 so far, which was equal to Reyes and Furcal’s was 99. Jimmy Rollins was 89. Below is the WAR Graph showing where the players rank with one another at the same age.
If we use WAR, Castro has been better in the first two seasons than any of the other three. He’s just barely better than Jose Reyes, but remember the traditional stat edge that Reyes has over Castro.
If I’m the Cubs and I want to lock Castro up for 5 more years, then I want to pay him what the average of those 3 got, which was 5 years and $21.2 million. I’d go as high as 5 years, $25 million, which is just a bit higher than Reyes got. Using traditional stats, I’d probably go no more than what Reyes got.
Using the projections methodology we get 5 years and $29 million and using a more realistic approach we get 5 years and $21-25 million.
Using the wisdom of the crowds approach, we get 5 years and $29.7 million. So you guys were right on with regards to projections and a bit off compared to similar players. That surprises me. I was expecting the exact opposite. Maybe that’s because I went into this thinking about similar players whereas you guys went into thinking about projections.
I’m not sure if I would extend him, but I voted yes because I wanted to vote for how much I’d pay him. I struggled between $15 million and $20 million and settled on $20 million. Aisle424 basically said what I was thinking.
I said no because I don’t know if he’s valuable enough to lessen his value to cost ratio to “save” money when he gets enough service time to go free agent.
This isn’t a Hall of Fame player they need to lock up. Just because he’s the best the Cubs have doesn’t mean they should treat him like he’s among the best in baseball.
I tend to agree with this. The amount the Cubs could save by locking him doesn’t justify taking the risk in my opinion. If Castro ended up being a lot better than expected it would obviously be worth it, but at the same time, he’s as likely to end up a lot worse than we expect. I wouldn’t lock him up right now. Take another look at this after next season and see how much he’s improved between now and the end of next year. Maybe it costs you a couple million more, but you’re that much more certain about what to expect from him in the future. Like 424 said, this isn’t a hall of fame player, or even a great player for that matter, so there’s no reason to take unnecessary risks with him.
[quote name=dylanj]so if Boise State comes to the Big 12 does the conference stay together?[/quote]
Boise, BYU and another team (probably SMU) would save the Big 12, imo.
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Boise, BYU and another team (probably SMU) would save the Big 12 for a few years.[/quote].
[quote name=mb21].[/quote]
If superconferences really are the future, then yeah, for a few years.
if castro didnt develop beyond what he is now but had a long career he is most def a HOF player. He would end up top 5 in hits and for a SS that will get you there
Why would Boise et al want to backstop the B12 if it’s doomed anyway?
Didn’t a right fielder once throw out a guy at first on a “routine” single to preserve a perfect game, or at least a no-hitter? Seems like I remember reading that somewhere. I want to say it was Clemente, but I’m probably way off.
[quote name=Berselius]Why would Boise et al want to backstop the B12 if it’s doomed anyway?[/quote]
To be in an AQ conference?
[quote name=Berselius]Why would Boise et al want to backstop the B12 if it’s doomed anyway?[/quote]
aq
[quote name=Rice Cube]It was the injuries!
http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2011/08/31/831-august-happenings//quoteCarrie types this stuff with Ricketts standing over her shoulder, doesn’t she?
(dying laughing), I’m a moran. BYU and Boise wouldn’t be left out from AQ after the B12 falls apart again most likely anyway.
Is SMU really back enough to get into a AQ conference? My impression was that they might as well invite Rice.
http://www.fbschedules.com/2011/08/oregon-state-nicholls-state-2012-football-schedule/
Hmm…
BYU ——> Big 12?
[quote name=josh]Carrie types this stuff with Ricketts standing over her shoulder, doesn’t she?[/quote]
In her defense, what’s she supposed to write about these days? Writing that the Cubs suck everyday probably won’t work.
[quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), I’m a moran. BYU and Boise wouldn’t be left out from AQ after the B12 falls apart again most likely anyway.
Is SMU really back enough to get into a AQ conference? My impression was that they might as well invite Rice.[/quote]
SMU isn’t back, but they’re getting there. TCU’s ascent and its timing really hurt SMU for metroplex recruits (the ones that Texas and OU didn’t get), but I think they’ll be on a Texas Tech level within a few years.
[quote name=Berselius]
Is SMU really back enough to get into a AQ conference? My impression was that they might as well invite Rice.[/quote]
No thanks, I’ll stay in the Pac-whatever where I belong.
/tongue-in-cheek
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]In her defense, what’s she supposed to write about these days? Writing that the Cubs suck everyday probably won’t work.[/quote]Shit, that would be way more entertaining. Preferrably drunk. Maybe she can confess to a drunken affair with Ryne Sandberg’s wife.
[quote name=josh]Shit, that would be way more entertaining. Preferrably drunk. Maybe she can confess to a drunken affair with Ryne Sandberg’s wife.[/quote]
I think that would generate many website hits for the article.
(dying laughing)
The Royals pitcher has only had to throw 55 pitches so far through 5.1 IP.
Edit: And he’s done! Weird pitching change, must be a prospect.
[quote name=dylanj]if castro didnt develop beyond what he is now but had a long career he is most def a HOF player. He would end up top 5 in hits and for a SS that will get you there[/quote]Based on what? Based on him being exaclty as he’s been so far? Sure, but name one player who has performed like that. If we’re looking at what Castro will do the rest of his career we look at what a similar group of players have done after accomplishing similar things that Castro has. For example, if you want to know how many home runs a guy who hit 15 home runs in April is on you look at all players who hit 15 home runs in April and see how many they ended up with. That’s how many home runs that player is on pace for. Not 75.
Castro is a good player, will probably have a few really good years, but he’s far from a Hall of Fame player.
Mike Stanton is a beast
MB, you’re not properly projecting how Feared Castro will be
[quote name=Berselius]MB, you’re not properly projecting how Feared Castro will be[/quote]Also, what if he learns how to have fun? I think you have to factor that probability.
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Mike Stanton is a beast[/quote]As a tweet I saw earlier mentioned, it’s odd that a 21 year old with a .902 OPS (141 wRC+) and 30+ HRs is not being talked about all that much.
[quote name=Mish]As a tweet I saw earlier mentioned, it’s odd that a 21 year old with a .902 OPS (141 wRC+) and 30+ HRs is not being talked about all that much.[/quote]Maybe just because no one would think he’s available and the Marlins suck ass.
MB Can i get your email address or can you email me
jdfisch@gmail.com
Have a few questions
Thanks!
[quote name=josh]Maybe just because no one would think he’s available and the Marlins suck ass.[/quote]Available? I’m just commenting on no one discussing the season he’s having.
[quote name=Mish]Available? I’m just commenting on no one discussing the season he’s having.[/quote]Yeah, I understand, I’m just saying the buzz in the media tends to revolve around trades, at least in my experience. But I don’t follow all the blogs or anything either.
When the Cubs played the Marlins, Pat talked about Stanton a lot.
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]MB Can i get your email address or can you email me
jdfisch@gmail.com
Have a few questions
Thanks![/quote]
I sent you an email, but for future reference for you and everyone else, there’s a contact link on the menu under Site for myself, Aisle 424, And Counting and Berselius.
[quote name=Mish]Available? I’m just commenting on no one discussing the season he’s having.[/quote]It’s because he’s with the Marlins and nobody cares. If he was having a season like Jose Bautista is having, people would talke, but about the only time people talk about Toronto baseball is when they’re winning a World Series or Jose Bautista is going fucking nuts on baseballs.
[quote name=Berselius]MB, you’re not properly projecting how Feared Castro will be[/quote]I forgot about that.
I know DJ is expecting huge things from him, but I’m expecting a career similar to what Carlos Zambrano has provided. In 10 years the fans will be complaining about Castro and I’ll be writing annual articles about how damn good he’s been. He’s not a superstar or a hall of famer though.
[quote name=mb21]I sent you an email, but for future reference for you and everyone else, there’s a contact link on the menu under Site for myself, Aisle 424, And Counting and Berselius.[/quote]
I Should have posted a fan shot
http://www.tigerboard.com/boards/missouri-tigers.php?message=8809292
Shawon Dunston, Sr. hopes his son will have a higher OBP than he did. He also explains his hitting approach as “I want to hit.”
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]http://www.tigerboard.com/boards/missouri-tigers.php?message=8809292[/quote]
Apparently the person who posted that has been on top of realignment all off-season.
Shawon, Sr. really liked swinging the bat.
I had no idea there’s a Cubs game going on right now (dying laughing)
See, fun = winning.
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]I had no idea there’s a Cubs game going on right now (dying laughing)[/quote]Without Tejada and Rowand, can you even call it baseball?
This Giants offense makes Rodrigo Lopez look awesome.
Madison Baumgartner already has 5Ks in 2 innings.
Methinks Lopez will go a bit longer in the game than Bumgarner will. Assuming that Rodrigo doesn’t turn into a batting tee, that is.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Methinks Lopez will go a bit longer in the game than Bumgarner will. Assuming that Rodrigo doesn’t turn into a batting tee, that is.[/quote]Batting T time.
[quote name=josh]Batting T time.[/quote]
Shut me right up.
Super batting T time.
3-pete?
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]http://www.tigerboard.com/boards/missouri-tigers.php?message=8809292[/quote]
interesting. I always thought OU would make the move that brought the whole thing down, but then again, I didn’t anticipate the sec’s interest in mizzou.
also, my faget stats couldn’t predict the rockies
Barney falls and creates an interference double play. That’s… Cubs baseball.
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]I Should have posted a fan shot[/quote]
Seriously. Isn’t the first thing you read at any site you visit the rules for posting?
[quote name=GW]interesting. I always thought OU would make the move that brought the whole thing down, but then again, I didn’t anticipate the sec’s interest in mizzou.[/quote]
FWIW, I read that more as Mizzou’s interest in the SEC. The SEC would much rather have OU. Mizzou just read the writing on the well and is hoping to get in the door first, as it’s the only hope they have if OU et al don’t go to the Pac-N
Wow, the Giants lay down a bunt with 1 out and a runner on 2nd. That’s the Giants’ offense for you.
[quote name=Berselius]Seriously. Isn’t the first thing you read at any site you visit the rules for posting?[/quote]I was going to read the rules for posting, but I wasn’t sure up front if I was supposed to, or if I needed to wait for a few posts so I would have some working knowledge. Perhaps if there were rules right up front telling you how read the rules of posting, that could really help people out.
[quote name=josh]I was going to read the rules for posting, but I wasn’t sure up front if I was supposed to, or if I needed to wait for a few posts so I would have some working knowledge. Perhaps if there were rules right up front telling you how read the rules of posting, that could really help people out.[/quote]
Also, keep in mind that you will be banned from the site if you don’t punctuate things properly. You will also need to write an elaborately formulated abstract for each of your comments to make the site easier to navigate.
/Lookout Landing, more or less.
Quade is leaving Lopez in? To hit????
[quote name=ACT]Quade is leaving Lopez in? To hit????[/quote]
(dying laughing)
Does it matter?
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Holy shit, I finally noticed that Ramirez is batting above .300 (wOBA at .374). That’s amazing, given how shitty his start to the season was.
He was hitting for average early this season, just not power.
Q lets Lopez strike out to lead off the inning, then leaves him in to face 3 batters. Ugh.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
[quote name=Berselius]FWIW, I read that more as Mizzou’s interest in the SEC. The SEC would much rather have OU. Mizzou just read the writing on the well and is hoping to get in the door first, as it’s the only hope they have if OU et al don’t go to the Pac-N[/quote]
if they get left at the altar again, columbia residents are going to hoist the black flag and start slitting throats
[quote name=ACT]Q lets Lopez strike out to lead off the inning, then leaves him in to face 3 batters. Ugh.[/quote]
His pitch count was low and he would have been in line for a QS if he didn’t suck. The available pinch hitters were all lefties or Koyie Hill. I don’t think it would’ve mattered (dying laughing)
Q may well have been thinking some or all of those things, but it’s still a terrible decision. Every single position player on that bench is Miguel Cabrera compared to Rodrigo.
[quote name=ACT]Q lets Lopez strike out to lead off the inning, then leaves him in to face 3 batters. Ugh.[/quote]
At least they didn’t have him intentionally walk a guy to load the bases, then have him pitch to a lefty power hitter while a LHP was warmed up in the pen.
/Z
mb (or anyone else), what will it take for the b12 to lose aq status? The remnants could forge on with a completely different group of teams up until they reach that point.
[quote name=ACT]Q may well have been thinking some or all of those things, but it’s still a terrible decision. Every single position player on that bench is Miguel Cabrera compared to Rodrigo.[/quote]It’s called conceding defeat. It’s a way of [L]ife.
[quote name=GW]mb (or anyone else), what will it take for the b12 to lose aq status? The remnants could forge on with a completely different group of teams up until they reach that point.[/quote]
If they go under 10 teams they lose it, IIRC
[quote name=Berselius]If they go under 10 teams they lose it, IIRC[/quote]
so expect them to replace every departing school with a current non-aq school for as long as they can, I suppose.
Waoh, Lilly pitched today and didn’t allow a single home run.
AA OF Matt Camp ———–> 50 game suspension for second drug violation
[quote name=Berselius]AA OF Matt Camp ———–> 50 game suspension for second drug violation[/quote]AA Cubs player?
Dunn had a PH appearance. Struck out.
[quote name=josh]AA Cubs player?[/quote]
Indeed.
Castro with his third K of the day.
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]I had no idea there’s a Cubs game going on right now (dying laughing)[/quote](dying laughing) me neither. Didn’t know that until right now when I saw this comment.
[quote name=GW]interesting. I always thought OU would make the move that brought the whole thing down, but then again, I didn’t anticipate the sec’s interest in mizzou.[/quote]My brother and I were talking over the last couple days I told him I thought Missouri or Kansas made the next move. I think Kansas goes to the Big East and MIssouri to the SEC.
Wasn’t much of a “game” really.
[quote name=GW]mb (or anyone else), what will it take for the b12 to lose aq status? The remnants could forge on with a completely different group of teams up until they reach that point.[/quote]Losing one of Texas or Oklahoma.
Berselius, they don’t lose AQ status if they go to 9, but ESPN can void the tv contract they signed a few months ago.
[quote name=GW]if they get left at the altar again, columbia residents are going to hoist the black flag and start slitting throats[/quote]They begged the Big Ten this time last year and several years earlier. I think they got the point. (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]Losing one of Texas or Oklahoma.
Berselius, they don’t lose AQ status if they go to 9, but ESPN can void the tv contract they signed a few months ago.[/quote]
In other words, they might as well lose it at that point.
[quote name=Berselius]In other words, they might as well lose it at that point.[/quote]Yep. The Big 12 is done. Didn’t matter if it was 1999, 2006, 2011, 2012 or 2015, it’s done. it’s been done since it started. I’m kind of surprised it’s taken this long for teams like Colorado and aTm to go looking for new homes. Even more surprised that Kansas hasn’t tied themselves to the Big East. Shocked that Iowa State hasn’t begged the Big Ten and said they’d be willing to take an annual payment of $3.78 if they could join.
There was no reason for Texas or Oklahoma to do anything because they were getting paid a similar amount that teams in the Big Ten and SEC were. Not now, but 5, 10 years ago they were. They were still getting a lot more than the rest so it was less important for them to move. Seriously, where the hell is KSU going to go? Not the Big Ten. Not the Pac. Not the SEC. Would the ACC have any interest? Is the Big East interested in expanding to 300 teams? Of the two (KU and KSU), KU will be the most sought after and they don’t have a chance to go to one of the four major conferences.
Then again, maybe ISU has begged the Big Ten. There’s been rumors now for awhile that the state legislature has been pushing Iowa to get ISU to join the Big Ten and they just kind of laugh at it. yeah, Iowa really wants to do that so they and every other program makes less. (dying laughing)
Seems like every time I look at the box score I see this
Castro: 1-4
He also stole a base and made a throwing error.
[quote name=mb21]
Castro is a good player, will probably have a few really good years, but he’s far from a Hall of Fame player.[/quote]The only thing MB hates more than Starlin is the Cubs’ latest draft.
New conjecture: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/the-cubs-might-be-formulating-an-actual-plan.html
[quote name=mb21]Then again, maybe ISU has begged the Big Ten. There’s been rumors now for awhile that the state legislature has been pushing Iowa to get ISU to join the Big Ten and they just kind of laugh at it. yeah, Iowa really wants to do that so they and every other program makes less. (dying laughing)[/quote]
I’m guessing they go C-USA (dying laughing)