The Cubs are 33 games into their 2011 season and it seems a good time to check on how players are doing. I’ll break it into four parts. Click the link below to read more.
Catcher
Geovany Soto is off to a slow start. He’s hitting just ..226/.322/.387 (.320 wOBA). It’s a 94 wRC+ so he’s been just a bit below average. He’s added 1 run on fielding and he plays a premium position so it’s not as bad as you may think. It’s not as good as we’d like though. He has come on of late. He’s hit well over the last few games so hopefully it was just a slump. A .253 BABIP despite a line drive rate over 21.2% suggests that he’s been awfully unlucky so far. He’s also had an infield fly ball rate over 15%, which is more than double his career 7% rate. He hasn’t been as unlucky as you’d think based on his LD rate because of all those easy infield flies, but still unlucky.
Koyie Hill has played in only 5 games and stepped to the plate 15 times. He’s had a wOBA of .341 in those plate appearances.
As a team, the Cubs catchers have been middle of the pack in wRC+ at 95.
First Base
Carlos Pena has been the primary first baseman with Jeff Baker getting the second most playing time. In fact, Baker has played 1st nearly as often as he has 2nd. Pena hit his first home run of the seasonIn Los Angeles and then added a second and third home run after flying out to the warning track about a dozen times. Pena is now hitting .198/.327/.314 (.295 wOBA). He has as many bunt singles as he does extra base hits (four). Almost 25% of his hits have been bunts. He’s a good bunter and has taken advantage of the defensive shift. His .259 BABIP looks horrible, but then you notice it was .222 a year ago and just .250 in 2009. The current rate may actually be above true talent level. It’s hard to imagine, but it might be.
The Cubs have limited his action vs lefties, which is a smart idea. He isn’t very good vs lefties and he and Baker make a perfect platoon situation for the Cubs.
I’m including Baker here as a 1st baseman so we can look at DeWitt as the other 2nd baseman. Baker has played 6 more innings at 2nd than he has at 1st though. Baker has gotten off to a very hot start thanks to a .412 BABIP. It’s not like it’s been lucky though. He won’t sustain the 28.8% line drive rate that he has, but so far he’s earned that BABIP. His current GB/FB rate is 1.85, which is quite a bit higher than his career rate. The groundballs are only slightly increased, but the flyballs have become line drives, which of course is a good thing. Mike Quade has made the mistake of playing Baker too much vs righties already this season. Because of a hot bat, he insisted he remain in the lineup and it paid off early, but he’s always been terrible vs righties. This year is no different. While he has a ridiculously good .488 wOBA vs lefties, it’s .280 vs righties. He’s also gotten more plate appearances vs righties than lefties.
The Cubs rank 22nd in wRC+ at 1st base and have been worth -0.1 WAR so far.
Second Base
We’ve already talked about Baker who we thought would at least be one side of the platoon entering the season along with Blake DeWitt. It hasn’t worked out that way. DeWitt has played just 9 innings at 2nd base and Baker played the 43 we already mentioned. Darwin Barney got the start on opening day and hasn’t given Mike Quade any reason to rethink the starter at that position since. Barney has played in 221 innings at 2nd. Barney is batting .316/.336/.412 with a .330 wOBA (100 wRC+) and has been worth 1.3 runs on defense. Barney’s swing percentage this season is only 43.2%. For a comparison, Soto has swung at just over 40% of the pitches he’s seen in his career. The extremely patiet Carlos Pena has swung at 45.7%. Only once has he swung at fewer pitches than Barney has so far this season (43.1% in 2007). On huge difference though is that about 48% of the pitches Pena has seen in his career have been inside the zone. 53.8% of the ones Barney has seen this year have been inside the zone. Pitchers are throwing him strikes yet he’s still working the count to get his pitch. Barney will never be a great player, but I think he can be about league average for a few years. At league minimum salary, that’s damn good production.
Oddly enough, Barney has only had 20 plate appearances vs lefties this season compared to 100 against righties. He’s basically been sitting against the side of the platoon that he’d fare better against and has still been an above league average hitter so far. Vs lefties, Baker is better to it makes sense, but it would be nice to see more of what Barney could do if he didn’t have the platoon disadvantage so frequently. In those 20 PA, Barney has a .432 wOBA and it’s .310 vs righties.
Blake DeWitt only has 27 PA this season and has hit .308/.333/.462 (.351 wOBA). The Cubs thought 2nd base was going to be a position they might have trouble with entering the season. A year ago it was laughable that Baker would play everyday and there was talk early on him doing just that. That’s a sign of how bad the position was thought to be early in spring training. Darwin Barney emerged as the starter and Blake DeWitt who was almost cut at one point, has hit fairly well without any playing time to speak of.
Third Base
The idea that Aramis Ramirez had returned to form at the end of last season can be put to rest. So far he’s hit .273/.336/.364 with a .309 wOBA and an 86 wRC+. His line drive rate is a little better than last year’s career lose 15.8%, but if you use the current 17.1% to estimate BABIP, you get about .291. His actual BABIP is over .308 and his career BABIP is .288. He’s hitting a lot more balls on the ground this season and fewer fly balls as well. His home runs per fly ball rate is a career low 2.2%. Even last year it was 11.6%. ZiPS projects .344 wOBA the rest of the way, but I think that’s unlikely. I do expect a few more of the flies to leave the yards, but he’ll have a lower BABIP too. I’m guessing he’s probably not much more of a .320 wOBA hitter at this point in his career. He’s just not very good and I couldn’t have been more wrong when I said that I thought he’d opt out. I thought last season was rather unlucky and parts of it he was his old self. Can’t say that anymore.
Shortstop
Starlin Castro has played all but one game here. Darwin Barney gave him a breather a couple days ago in the hopes that it could help him get back on track. I’ve complained several times in recent days about Castro in various threads here so I’m not going to say much. He’s taken a step back so far. Here are all the things that are worse this season compared to his rookie season:
OBP
SLG
OPS
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
BB%
BB/K
WPA
RE24
REW
Clutch
DRS
Total Zone
UZR is already -1.9 and it -2.1 last year. It’s almost worse and we’re a month into the season. The Total Zone and DRS are already worse.
Castro got off to such a terrific start and has come crashing back to earth. So far this season, Castro is quite a bit worse than he was a year ago. It’s not really even close. I don’t know what that means the rest of the season, if anything at all, but I was thrilled to hear Quade talk about how poor his plate discipline is yesterday. It’s atrocious and while it’s probably never going to be great, you hate to see him take such a step back. It’s early though and he’s still very young, but the early results this season have not been promising. Fangraphs has him worth .5 WAR while Baseball Reference has him as a slightly worse than a replacement level player (-0.1 WAR).
I don’t understand all these numbers and abbreviations. Since when is wOBA on a report card? This sight sucks. I’m going over to BCB where Al will surely give me an arbitrary letter grade for each player that I understand.
Jesus MB, Don’t you like anything?
Things I’ve noticed about Castro: he seems to be taking more strikes lately than he did when he got off to that torrid start. I’d rather see him hacking than try to imitate a patient approach. He also seems to be putting balls into play that he previously would have fouled off with two strikes. Could be completely wrong on both counts, but it does make me wonder if anyone has done much work on showing whether fouling off tough pitches is really a skill or just something that gets overblown. Either way, Castro doesn’t seem to be hitting the ball nearly as sharply as he did the first few weeks of the season.
That said, I’m not that worried about him not rebounding.
[quote name=mb21]I don’t think Al realizes the difference between customer and owner. I truly think Al believes that being as valuable a customer as he is it means he’s part owner.[/quote]Al must sell Amway products. The key is to be your own best customer.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
You’re right, AC. From what I can tell, Castro isn’t squaring balls up nearly as well as he was early in the season. What makes me worry is if that’s because the pitchers are taking advantage of his lack of patience. Mike Quade seems to think that’s exactly what is happening. He was very critical of Castro yesterday and personally, i think it’s well deserved. He has so much potential, but if he’s not pushed to get better he probably never will. I don’t think he’ll ever be a superstar. I think we’re talking about a guy who is going to be good, but far from great. I’d just hate to see such bad habits form that it’s even harder for him to be the good player he’s more than capable of being. It seems that right now he’s basically swinging at anything in the same area code he’s in.
[quote name=Aisle424](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)[/quote]Was that the fantasy baseball webmaster’s own snark, AC?
Have any of you been in a Turkish prison?
Re: the Marlins’ new ballpark:
http://www.miaminewtimes.com/2011-05-05/news/six-lies-about-the-marlins-stadium/
[quote name=Rice Cube]Re: the Marlins’ new ballpark:
http://www.miaminewtimes.com/2011-05-05/news/six-lies-about-the-marlins-stadium//quote
.
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Was that the fantasy baseball webmaster’s own snark, AC?[/quote]
Yes. Yes, it was. And don’t call me Shirley.
Depends on if the fagets like fish…that proposed aquarium full of marlins behind home plate sounds kind of cool. Wonder if it would be distracting to the pitchers and fielders though…
[quote name=Rice Cube]Re: the Marlins’ new ballpark:
http://www.miaminewtimes.com/2011-05-05/news/six-lies-about-the-marlins-stadium//quote
I wonder if a money-sucker is any relation to a fun-sucker.
[quote name=Aisle424]I wonder if a money-sucker is any relation to a fun-sucker.[/quote]
If you need to spend money in order to have fun…then that creates a bit of a paradox?
[quote name=Aisle424]I don’t understand all these numbers and abbreviations. Since when is wOBA on a report card? This sight sucks. I’m going over to BCB where Al will surely give me an arbitrary letter grade for each player that I understand.[/quote]I’m eagerly awaiting to find out if Geovany Soto is a C or C+.
http://gregjohns.mlblogs.com/2011/05/09/milton-bradley-designated-by-mariners/
Should the Cubs pick him up?
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]http://gregjohns.mlblogs.com/2011/05/09/milton-bradley-designated-by-mariners/
Should the Cubs pick him up?[/quote]
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]http://gregjohns.mlblogs.com/2011/05/09/milton-bradley-designated-by-mariners/
Should the Cubs pick him up?[/quote]
(dying laughing)
I like how MB lasted a bit longer in MLB than Silva.
(dying laughing) @ the relish with which MB has been taking a giant shit on Castro the last couple days.
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]http://gregjohns.mlblogs.com/2011/05/09/milton-bradley-designated-by-mariners/
Should the Cubs pick him up?[/quote]www.shouldthecubspickupmiltonbradleynowthatseattlehasdfadhim.com
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]Should the Cubs pick him up?[/quote]
The amusing thing is that even if they did they’d have no place to put him since the OF is crowded. Unless MB suddenly learns how to pitch…
I think Bradley’s done in baseball. Apparently this clincher this time was a completely inept defensive performance that led many to question if he was doing poorly on purpose. Couple that with his inability to reproduce his offensive success from his time in Texas, and I think Milton is done in MLB. Bad play, bad behavior, and a bad reputation. I can’t imagine a GM that would touch after the last three seasons.
If I were Hendry, I’d call him just for the sheer entertainment purpose.
“Hey Milton, it’s Jim. Listen, I heard about you being DFA’d. That’s a bitch. I’m sorry to hear it. I’ll tell you what, we’ve had some trouble hitting with runners in scoring position and I was just calling to see if you would want to bury the hatchet and get a fresh start. Lou won’t be on your case all the damn time and we got some new mirrors in the clubhouse for you to look into. What do you… Hello?…”
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder](dying laughing) @ the relish with which MB has been taking a giant shit on Castro the last couple days.[/quote]
I think it was the hot sauce more than the relish.
Newt Gingrich —–> running for President
What year is this?
Newt Gingrich is a recent politician I’ve enjoyed.
Bob Dole: I don’t go around saying Bob Dole does this and Bob Dole does that… that’s not something Bob Dole does.
I miss Bob Dole.
What career do you think Milton Bradley should take up after baseball?
[quote name=AndCounting]What career do you think Milton Bradley should take up after baseball?[/quote]
Beat writer.
[quote name=Aisle424]Beat writer.[/quote]
He might actually beat a writer or two.
[quote name=AndCounting]What career do you think Milton Bradley should take up after baseball?[/quote]
I call shenanigans. I might be bonkers, but the game of life was his downfall. The easy money in this operation is a knockout. By…guess who? Hi ho, cherry-o, it’s a barrel of monkeys.
Hustle.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/05/09/want-to-see-a-guy-score-from-first-on-a-bunt/
[quote name=Jame Gumb]I call shenanigans. I might be bonkers, but the game of life was his downfall. The easy money in this operation is a knockout. By…guess who? Hi ho, cherry-o, it’s a barrel of monkeys.[/quote]
Sorry! But he has a Monopoly on Trouble.
Hungry Hungry Hippos.
[quote name=Aisle424]Sorry! But he has a Monopoly on Trouble.
Hungry Hungry Hippos.[/quote]
It’s a conspiracy, crocodile dentist. But don’t spill the beans, Captain Skyhawk.
If the Cubs sign Milton for league minimum, they’ll owe that much more to Carlos Silva.
/Sullivan’d
[quote name=GBTS]If the Cubs sign Milton for league minimum, they’ll owe that much more to Carlos Silva.
/Sullivan’d[/quote]
Go to the head of the class, GBTS.
[quote name=Jame Gumb]guess who?[/quote]
Is your person a faget?
[quote name=Jame Gumb]It’s a conspiracy, crocodile dentist. But don’t spill the beans, Captain Skyhawk.[/quote]
Balderdash! The Risk of Ants in the Pants over this Trivial Pursuit is Bonkers.
Greinke makes his home debut tonight.
…Shrek Monopoly.
Anyone like tennis?
http://sports.yahoo.com/tennis/blog/busted_racquet/post/Video-Rafael-Nadal-8217-s-sensational-between-?urn=ten-wp591
Holy shit – a Peoria Chiefs game vs whatever the Quad Cities team is from a few weeks ago
That field apparently has excellent drainage.
Hmmm. Did the players get to work by canoe? I see one or two bridge-like walkways that lead to the ballpark but that’s got to be one crazy commute.
Count me among those more encouraged than discouraged by Castro’s performance this year. Yes, some of his numbers are down (slightly) but I’m not convinced at all that this means “Castro is quite a bit worse than he was a year ago.” In fact, not all his numbers are worse. His wOBA went from .325 to .326, despite a lower run-scoring environment and a BABIP that regressed about 50% toward the mean (as expected). In any case, sample statistics fluctuate quite a bit even with much larger sample sizes than we have this year, irrespective of changes in talent or performance. His “slump” has been frustrating, but smarter men than I have found little-to-no predictive power in cold streaks, so I’m not worried.
If only I were 20 years younger, and we both actually lived in the 1940s…
TMI?
Age is just a number, SK.
[quote name=ACT]Count me among those more encouraged than discouraged by Castro’s performance this year. Yes, some of his numbers are down (slightly) but I’m not convinced at all that this means “Castro is quite a bit worse than he was a year ago.” In fact, not all his numbers are worse. His wOBA went from .325 to .326, despite a lower run-scoring environment and a BABIP that regressed about 50% toward the mean (as expected). In any case, sample statistics fluctuate quite a bit even with much larger sample sizes than we have this year, irrespective of changes in talent or performance. His “slump” has been frustrating, but smarter men than I have found little-to-no predictive power in cold streaks, so I’m not worried.[/quote]By quite a bit worse, I was talking more about some of the components like BB% and ISO. Maybe even defensively.
I agree that cold streaks don’t mean anything. I don’t think he’s destined for the minor leagues or anything. He’s still a solid player, but I really hate seeing him turn into Corey Patterson at the plate and that’s who he has reminded me of the last few weeks. I was happy to see Quade bring up the patience as I think it’s a much bigger issue than some around here do. No, I don’t think he’ll ever take a lot of walks, but a step back in that area isn’t a good sign.
I think this new Cubs promotion is a token gesture…do you agree?
http://www.obstructedview.net/unobstructed-views/cubs/cubs-reward-graduates-with-a-pregame-parade-and-a-piece-of-paper.html
And yes, that is my real name
RC, you can change it so your real name doesn’t show up with the post if you want. Go to your profile and scroll over Edit. Then click on update your profile or edit your profile and then you can change it there.
Your real name is Token Gesture?
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Your real name is Token Gesture?[/quote]
That’s probably better than the real real name. I’ll have to look into that.
Thanks MB.
That was a recent decade I enjoyed
[quote name=Berselius]That was a recent decade I enjoyed[/quote]A little too recent for me. The world started turning to shit in the 1920s and 30s. I much prefer the recent decade of the 1780s.
[quote name=mb21] He’s still a solid player, but I really hate seeing him turn into Corey Patterson at the plate and that’s who he has reminded me of the last few weeks. [/quote]I don’t think that’s happening. Corey’s O-Swing% is ridiculous–way above the league average. By contrast, Castro’s O-Swing% is actually improved; in fact it’s right at the league average. His lack of walks is probably due to other factors (e.g., high Zone%, high contact rate). I would like to see him improve in this area, but I don’t think he’s trending in the wrong direction.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=300&position=OF#platediscipline
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4579&position=SS#platediscipline
My friends and I decided to drink every time Reggie Miller mentions Rondo’s left arm. We’ll be in the emergency room by halftime.
I was talking about Patterson in 2002 through 2004. Even then he was swinging at all kinds shit. I guess I’m not sure what his O-Swing% was then and it doesn’t really matter to me.
FWIW, regarding Castro’s improved O-Swing%, I think it’s more an issue that there is so much error in those stats. Colin Wyers talked about it not long ago. The fact his overall Swing% is up indicates to me that it’s highly probable his O-Swing% is also up.
I agree that part of the problem with the walks is that he makes contact and pitchers attack the zone against him. I did look at the location of pitches for Geovany Soto, Darwin Barney and Starlin Castro earlier today. It was clear that when the pitcher goes out of the zone on Castro, he goes further outside than they do on the other two. Castro’s swing rate was also so high that it was fairly clear that he has a larger called strikezone than either of the other two who take so many pitches. Almost the entire 2 foot zone was called against Castro.
We’re talking a relatively small sample of pitches so I didn’t include any of it, but I’m going to pay attention to that moving forward. So far it appears the umpire has called a wider zone for Castro. The only thing I can think of is that it’s because he swings at so much and when he’s up there, he makes the strikezone look so big. I’m not sure if anyone has researched that or not. Just a theory.
I’m more worried than some here, but I’m only worried in that I think he can be better than he has been. I know he can. In order for him to become the potential all-star that some think he can, he is going to have to be more patient. Personally, I think he makes an all-star game or two, but probably not much more than that. I don’t think he’s the high ceiling player a lot do. He just doesn’t have the power, patience or defense to be that player. That doesn’t mean he can’t be good and extremely valuable to this team. He can be and probably will be.
Dexter: This fall hell breaks loose http://www.youtube.com/showtime#p/u/0/PVApgr1Mqto
[quote name=mb21]Dexter: This fall hell breaks loose http://www.youtube.com/showtime#p/u/0/PVApgr1Mqto/quote (dying laughing) Well that revealed nothing.
Holy shit, I can talk into my phone and it types for me. Fuck yes, technology.
Spring 2011 isn’t even over yet and you’re thinking about fall?
Mb, do you know when season 6 starts?
funny
in re: Bradley DFA thread at BCB
Word is he is taking the cubs brass out to eat and they are preparing a contract for him as we speak!
by TJ11 on May 9, 2011 1:49 PM CDT reply
(dying laughing)
I laughed.
Check out Chicago sports coverage at SB Nation Chicago
by Al Yellon on May 9, 2011 1:52 PM CDT up reply
So the Yellon does have a sense of humor.
[quote name=Rice Cube]So the Yellon does have a sense of humor.[/quote]
False.
This Padres offense is so bad it should be illegal.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Zack Greinke —> infield single
We should send Al a pissy e-mail for using ACB/OV intellectual property without our permission.
He didn’t actually say (dying laughing), I assume.
[quote name=GBTS]He didn’t actually say (dying laughing), I assume.[/quote]
(dying laughing)
The macro strikes again.
White Sox —-> interested in Milton
Please let that happen. I would love Ozzie and Milton in the same dugout.
[quote name=Aisle424]White Sox —-> interested in Milton
Please let that happen. I would love Ozzie and Milton in the same dugout.[/quote]
Kaplan says the report is ridiculous.
[quote name=Aisle424]Kaplan says the report is ridiculous.[/quote]
It is, since the White Sox seem to have a monopoly on DH-types who can’t hit at the moment.
[quote name=Rice Cube]It is, since the White Sox seem to have a monopoly on DH-types who can’t hit at the moment.[/quote]
Yeah, but I’m going to keep hoping.
I was wondering earlier if Milton wouldn’t be an improvement over (dying laughing). I think the White Sox might think about it. They seem to be at the point that they might try something desperate. It would also be an awesome thing to behold.
[quote name=Aisle424]Yeah, but I’m going to keep hoping.[/quote]
If it does happen I hope they give Milton a Twitter account.
[quote name=GBTS]Mb, do you know when season 6 starts?[/quote]sometime in September. That was just the first Dexter promo for the upcoming season so I thought I’d post it. I don’t even think they’ve started filming yet. I think they’re finishing up casting right now.
I’m kind of pissed there hasn’t been a Breaking Bad trailer yet. That show kicks ass.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
I hope that’s not buttery popcorn because that’s a serious hazard.
I moved RC’s post to the main page so new thread up: http://www.obstructedview.net/unobstructed-views/cubs/cubs-reward-graduates-with-a-pregame-parade-and-a-piece-of-paper.html