Getting to Know: Ian Stewart

In News And Rumors by aisle424153 Comments

Name: Ian StewartIan_Stewart_black_away_1

Position: Third Base (probably)

Batting Order Position: I’d put him no higher than 7th, but we’ll see.

Bats/Throws: Left/Right

Opening Day Age: 27 (It will be his birthday!)

Uniform Number: His most recent 9 is currently taken by Blake DeWitt and his original 24 is Marlon Byrd. I’m thinking he’ll be picking a new number.

Is Ian Stewart on Twitter?: Yes he is.  Probably. It isn’t a Twitter-verified account, but it looks pretty legit. Go ahead and give him a follow at @IAN_STEWART_9.

Is his wife on Twitter?: It doesn’t appear so.  Kim DeJesus is alone in fending off the creepers at this point.

Did he marry the daughter of his minor league coach?: Yes he did.  When he was playing in Asheville, North Carolina he asked permission of his manager, Joe Mikulik, to take his daughter out for ice cream.  They are now married with a daughter.  Sorry, girls.

Is that the cutest thing you’ve ever heard? I think it just might be.

Baseball-Reference.com’s Most Similar Batter: Bill Sudakis

Baseball-Reference.com’s Most Similar Batter We Give a Damn About: Casey McGehee

Why we might like him:

  • He’s been a useful hitter in the past, batting .246/.334/.454/.788 from 2008 to 2010.
  • He has more power than Blake DeWitt and the now-departed D.J. Lemahieu
  • According to Wikipedia, he is a very generous autograph giver

Why we might hate him:

  • Tyler Colvin had a following that thought he was good, so he’ll have unreasonable expectations foisted on him from the start
  • He was awful last year. He was worth -1.2 WAR, which is Aaron Miles-esque.
  • He’s another guy who’ll never have a good batting average so people will undoubtedly focus on that.

If you rearrange the letters in his name you get: “TAINT WARES”

What Cubs Blogosphere Thinks of Him:

What I question is whether Stewart should be handed the Cubs’ starting third base job in 2012, to the exclusion of other possible candidates. Based on what the Cubs gave up to get him, it seems like he will. He’s coming off a lost year in 2011 and a wrist injury, and many scouts – Kevin Goldstein, among them – simply don’t believe he’s a big league regular. And, he’s scheduled to make some $2.5 million in 2012 (with two more arbitration years thereafter). He was at risk for being non-tendered on Monday, but apparently the Cubs felt they couldn’t risk another team swooping in and taking him.Another allure? I get to say “Nobody F’s with the DeJesus” over and over again this year. I can’t wait until the first Enhanced Box Score where DeJesus has a good game… On the balance, it’s a solid move. Not earth-moving, but a good first step. I suspect it’s but one piece of a large, very exciting puzzle.

do any ian stewart fans have anything to say about the guy that doesn’t involve a number? …especially since the AAA ones seem to be the only useful ones unless you want to project power and ignore what showed up last year. what is so nice about his plate approach? the only good thing about this deal is it costs next to nothing both in what was given up and what’s being paid…it also leaves dewitt/baker as the main 3rd base backup. well, it’s good he can actually field 3rd…that’s a good start over a guy like c.mcgehehehehe at least. i know the guy’s minor league numbers looks like a bunch of shiny dimes or some crap, but what about that guy swinging a bat looks like upside to anyone?

Stewart is a good glove third baseman who has had trouble making enough contract. He’s more of a Theo Epstein player as he strikes out and walks a ton. He hasn’t been helped much by Coors Field throughout his career.


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Comments

  1. Smokestack Lightning

    I don’t think this is that big of a deal. Certainly not worth the hand-wringing. Stewart has more upside than DJL and Colvin can’t play 3B or take a walk. The 3B market is weak and the position in general is weaker than usual around baseball. Worth a shot imo.

    Cubs don’t have a chance in 2012 anyway, not with the aging, Pujols-less Cardinals set to be just as good.

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  2. Mercurial Outfielder

    Based on what the Cubs gave up to get him, it seems like he will. He’s coming off a lost year in 2011 and a wrist injury, and many scouts – Kevin Goldstein, among them – simply don’t believe he’s a big league regular.

    I fully expect Ian Stewart to win the Triple Crown now.

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  3. Suburban kid

    I think they just needed to get rid of Colvin so that LaHair can take the backup OF/1B position after they sign Fielder.

    I’m calling it now. The Cubs will sign Fielder to a 6 year deal.

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  4. bubblesdachimp

    I have nothing to really add other than Casey Weathers has an electric arm with 0 control. Maybe if that last part can be fixed he could be valuable.

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  5. mb21

    [quote name=GW]i’d rather the median because i don’t think his chances are greater than 50% for the mean, but i would take odds for the mean, depending how you felt about it.

    we can do it $100 for charity. give me until sunday to get back with you, because i’m pretty swamped right now.[/quote]I know you’re busy, but I wanted to express some thoughts I had about this. I’m fine with the median, but I don’t like 75 games. If he bats 7th or 8th he may not even get 300 plate appearances. I assume you were talking 75 full games. If he was to only get 300 PA then I’m guess that it’s because he was either injured or because he lost playing time against righties. If the latter is the case I’d expect his numbers to be better and probably even close to average.

    At 75 games I’d want to base the bet on two possible things: injury and ineffectiveness vs righties. That seems a waste of time and more complicated than necessary. Besides, if he actually is close to average then he’ll play a full season anyway. It’s not like the Cubs have tremendous depth at 3rd base or a prospect waiting to take over the first time Stewart has a TOOTBLAN.

    So I’m thinking 130 games. This would eliminate the platoon possibility. I don’t like the idea of making a bet at such a point where he could end up having an unusually large percentage in which he has the platoon advantage.

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  6. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]I think even the Cubs fans who hated Aramis Ramirez will miss him by the time this season is over.[/quote]I think so too.

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  7. mb21

    According to Mozeliak the team will “redeploy” the resources set aside for Pujols so there is no advantage to the Cubs.

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  8. Aisle424

    [quote name=ACT]I think even the Cubs fans who hated Aramis Ramirez will miss him by the time this season is over.[/quote]And there is the genius of this front office. They are going to teach this fan base to hate scrappiness and recognize talent no matter how brown a player may be.

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  9. JMan

    [quote name=mb21]According to Mozeliak the team will “redeploy” the resources set aside for Pujols so there is no advantage to the Cubs.[/quote]I’m assuming they go after Rollins and/or Beltran. With Craigs knee surgery I won’t be surprised if beltran is the true target.

    Don’t the Cubs have 20-25M remaining to spend before they reach last years payroll figure of 125M?

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  10. Berselius

    [quote name=JMan]I’m assuming they go after Rollins and/or Beltran. With Craigs knee surgery I won’t be surprised if beltran is the true target.

    Don’t the Cubs have 20-25M remaining to spend before they reach last years payroll figure of 125M?[/quote]
    That money is going to Carlos Silva

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  11. mb21

    [quote name=JMan]I’m assuming they go after Rollins and/or Beltran. With Craigs knee surgery I won’t be surprised if beltran is the true target.

    Don’t the Cubs have 20-25M remaining to spend before they reach last years payroll figure of 125M?[/quote]They should have that much.

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  12. Rice Cube

    [quote name=work sucks]Either impressive for the FO or disappointing for the media[/quote]Let’s go with both. But it could go either way.

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  13. fang2415

    Angels owner Arte Moreno, who purchased the franchise for $183 million in 2003, committed to spend nearly twice as much money in two hours Thursday for Pujols and Texas Rangers left-hander C.J. Wilson (five years, $77.5 million) than he did for the entire franchise.

    (dying laughing)

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  14. JMan

    So the Angels new TV deal kicks-in this year. They are receiving 150M per year for 20years. So that pretty much covers their payroll.

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  15. Rice Cube

    [quote name=JMan]So the Angels new TV deal kicks-in this year. They are receiving 150M per year for 20years. So that pretty much covers Vernon Wells.[/quote]
    /hyperbole

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  16. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=fang2415]http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/non-tender-candidates.html

    Okay, so: why didn’t we just wait to see if Stewart was non-tendered on Dec 12th?

    New regime —-> there must have been a good reason[/quote]Yeah I’m sort of waiting for another shoe to drop here. On its face this seem like a truly pointless deal.

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  17. 26.2cubsfan

    [quote name=fang2415] Angels owner Arte Moreno, who purchased the franchise for $183 million in 2003, committed to spend nearly twice as much money in two hours Thursday for Pujols and Texas Rangers left-hander C.J. Wilson (five years, $77.5 million) than he did for the entire franchise.(dying laughing)[/quote]
    I got this “Alert” from ESPN and was really annoyed. The two numbers have very little to do with each other. One is the estimated value of the asset (probably in discounted cash flow) and the other is contracted expenses. What does one have to do with the other? Not much. You assume Moreno expects an increase in revenues will outweigh the increase in expenses, therefore improving his DCF for most of the length of the contract.

    This is like ESPN comparing how much money the Cubs “spent” in one off-season to how much the Yankees spent. If I promise to pay you $5 per year for 100,000,000 years, I’ve “spent” more than the Angels did this season. Does that make me a large-market baseball franchise?

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  18. fang2415

    [quote name=Berselius]Matt Moore ————->5/14 with TB[/quote]The Rays do it again. Makes sense to me on both sides since they save a heap and Moore gets a 100% guarantee that he’ll get more than slave wages even if his arm explodes tomorrow. I don’t get why other teams don’t do more of this.

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  19. Aisle424

    [quote name=fang2415]The Rays do it again. Makes sense to me on both sides since they save a heap and Moore gets a 100% guarantee that he’ll get more than slave wages even if his arm explodes tomorrow. I don’t get why other teams don’t do more of this.[/quote]
    Must be nice to have talent in your system worth extending like that.

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  20. fang2415

    [quote name=26.2cubsfan]I got this “Alert” from ESPN and was really annoyed. The two numbers have very little to do with each other. One is the estimated value of the asset (probably in discounted cash flow) and the other is contracted expenses. What does one have to do with the other? Not much. You assume Moreno expects an increase in revenues will outweigh the increase in expenses, therefore improving his DCF for most of the length of the contract.

    This is like ESPN comparing how much money the Cubs “spent” in one off-season to how much the Yankees spent. If I promise to pay you $5 per year for 100,000,000 years, I’ve “spent” more than the Angels did this season. Does that make me a large-market baseball franchise?[/quote]Yeah, you’re probably right. It’s just funny to picture him writing one check that says “Two free agents today, $330M” and another one that says “Entire franchise forever, $183M”.

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  21. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=Aisle424]Must be nice to have talent.[/quote]
    2011 Cubs: Don’t Get Better, Just Let Everyone Else Get Worse

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  22. fang2415

    [quote name=Aisle424]Must be nice to have talent in your system worth extending like that.[/quote]Yes, there is that. But I don’t know, Castro was pretty much a can’t-miss major leaguer. If the Cubs had offered to lock in $14M for him before he got anywhere close to an arb raise, I could see that working for both sides.

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  23. fang2415

    [quote name=GW].[/quote]I don’t know about that, actually. Young players are ruthlessly exploited by MLB and the PA as it is. Basically, if you last six years, you get a building full of money, and if you don’t, you have no other life skills and enough money to last you for a few years of unemployment if you spend it wisely. What the Rays do is offer them lifetime financial security immediately in exchange for a smaller money bin later. Sounds like a great way to smooth out an inefficiency to me.

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  24. fang2415

    [quote name=fang2415]Yes, there is that. But I don’t know, Castro was pretty much a can’t-miss major leaguer. If the Cubs had offered to lock in $14M for him before he got anywhere close to an arb raise, I could see that working for both sides.[/quote]I forget how much Castro will make over his first five years, so the amount might be out (MB is the arb calculator around here). But even right now, Castro is living his life knowing he’s an injury away from going back to being a fisherman. If I were him, I’d forgo a lot of wealth to buy all that security. (Especially since wealth will likely come anyway.)

    Which just made me realize that the Rays are basically selling insurance.

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  25. Rice Cube

    [quote name=fang2415]I don’t know about that, actually. Young players are ruthlessly exploited by MLB and the PA as it is. Basically, if you last six years, you get a building full of money, and if you don’t, you have no other life skills and enough money to last you for a few years of unemployment if you spend it wisely. What the Rays do is offer them lifetime financial security immediately in exchange for a smaller money bin later. Sounds like a great way to smooth out an inefficiency to me.[/quote]
    I assume the new CBA doesn’t do anything about this so the Rays could potentially keep on offering these types of contracts to the kids who will bite. It’s still an exploitation of sorts, but the kid is financially set for life so he’ll probably feel slightly less used.

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  26. GW

    [quote name=fang2415]I don’t know about that, actually. Young players are ruthlessly exploited by MLB and the PA as it is. Basically, if you last six years, you get a building full of money, and if you don’t, you have no other life skills and enough money to last you for a few years of unemployment if you spend it wisely. What the Rays do is offer them lifetime financial security immediately in exchange for a smaller money bin later. Sounds like a great way to smooth out an inefficiency to me.[/quote]
    yeah, it makes sense for both sides. but the only reason it does for the player is because of the mandatory indentured servitude. when you add in the fact that one party in the negotiations has control of when that service time starts and ends, things get really shady.

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  27. Aisle424

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I assume the new CBA doesn’t do anything about this so the Rays could potentially keep on offering these types of contracts to the kids who will bite. It’s still an exploitation of sorts, but the kid is financially set for life so he’ll probably feel slightly less used.[/quote]
    It isn’t an exploitation because the Rays are now an injury away from setting $14 million on fire, which is a lot of money for them.

    There is risk on both sides, but the difference is that if things work out the way everyone wants them to, the Rays get the benefit.

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  28. Slick Rick

    [quote name=mickey kelleher]Does this mean no more Camp Colvin?[/quote]Have you ever seen a show with fellas on the mic
    with one minute rhymes that don’t come out right ?

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  29. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mickey kelleher]Does this mean no more Camp Colvin?[/quote]No. The show must go on. Only now it’s with these guys:

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  30. fang2415

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I assume the new CBA doesn’t do anything about this so the Rays could potentially keep on offering these types of contracts to the kids who will bite. It’s still an exploitation of sorts, but the kid is financially set for life so he’ll probably feel slightly less used.[/quote]It’s an exploitation if all you care about is the total dollar amount. If you’re like most people and you’re sensibly risk-averse, then it’s not that bad. The Rays just bought all of Moore’s risk for $14MM, because the Rays (even) can survive the loss of him not panning out much more comfortably than Moore would if he didn’t get paid.

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  31. GW

    [quote name=Aisle424]It isn’t an exploitation because the Rays are now an injury away from setting $14 million on fire, which is a lot of money for them.
    [/quote]
    that goes for any contract, the only difference is in the amount at risk of being set on fire, which in this case is almost criminally low relative to market price

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  32. fang2415

    [quote name=GW]yeah, it makes sense for both sides. but the only reason it does for the player is because of the mandatory indentured servitude. when you add in the fact that one party in the negotiations has control of when that service time starts and ends, things get really shady.[/quote]Yep. The way free agency works is a massive inefficiency set up by the PA, which accepts underpricing of young players in exchange for overpricing of old players. The Rays are simply circumventing that inefficiency by offering good deals to young players in the cases where it works out better for the team.

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  33. Mercurial Outfielder

    Let’s also not neglect the fact that the Rays just turned Moore into a really nice trade piece, too. Surplus value, people. Marx wasn’t wrong about everything. (dying laughing)

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  34. fang2415

    [quote name=GW]that goes for any contract, the only difference is in the amount at risk of being set on fire, which in this case is almost criminally low relative to market price[/quote]Market price for an FA, you mean (or at least an arb guy). For a rookie with a month of service time, it’s a ludicrous premium.

    Does anybody know whether somebody’s figured out what baseball salaries would look like if every player were a free agency immediately? I wouldn’t be shocked if Moore’s extension would be a fair value in such a world.

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  35. GW

    [quote name=fang2415]Yep. The way free agency works is a massive inefficiency set up by the PA, which accepts underpricing of young players in exchange for overpricing of old players. The Rays are simply circumventing that inefficiency by offering good deals to young players in the cases where it works out better for the team.[/quote]
    i don’t want to get into semantics, but circumventing is an awfully optimistic term for what they do. they keep players in the minors for as long as any team in the league, and take advantage of the understandably risk averse players to lock them up for more than the six years perscribed by the cba at extremely low rates.

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  36. fang2415

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Marx wasn’t wrong about everything. (dying laughing)[/quote](dying laughing).

    But seriously: commie.

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  37. GW

    [quote name=fang2415]Market price for an FA, you mean (or at least an arb guy). For a rookie with a month of service time, it’s a ludicrous premium.

    I wouldn’t be shocked if Moore’s extension would be a fair value in such a world.[/quote]
    i would. he’s the best pitching prospect in the game.

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  38. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=fang2415](dying laughing).

    But seriously: commie.[/quote]Socialist =! Communist. But I’m neither. (dying laughing)

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  39. mb21

    [quote name=GW]i would. he’s the best pitching prospect in the game.[/quote]Agreed. Strasburg signed for $15 million never having thrown a professional pitch. Moore just signed for $15 million after proving he’s one of the best at the professional level. The Rays definitely took advantage of this and Rays fans are going to use it as an example of how awesome their front office is. I’d use it as example of how awful it is. To take advantage of someone like that is horrible and that’s what they did.

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  40. mb21

    Morgan Ensberg’s Yahoo mail account must have been hacked. Either that or he thought I’d be interested in some prescription medication deals. (dying laughing)

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  41. fang2415

    [quote name=GW]i don’t want to get into semantics, but circumventing is an awfully optimistic term for what they do. they keep players in the minors for as long as any team in the league, and take advantage of the understandably risk averse players to lock them up for more than the six years perscribed by the cba at extremely low rates.[/quote]Well, I don’t mean “circumventing” as a term of endearment (dying laughing). There’s something screwy in the market and they’re trying to get around it when it works to their advantage.

    Because the market for young players is extremely inefficient, it’s often to the advantage of the young player as well. So they can keep doing it.

    Fiddling the service time may not be a nice thing to do, but I think that’s a different thing. This should work even without stuff like that.

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  42. mb21

    [quote name=fang2415]I forget how much Castro will make over his first five years, so the amount might be out (MB is the arb calculator around here). But even right now, Castro is living his life knowing he’s an injury away from going back to being a fisherman. If I were him, I’d forgo a lot of wealth to buy all that security. (Especially since wealth will likely come anyway.)

    Which just made me realize that the Rays are basically selling insurance.[/quote]Right now Castro is worth around $50 million before he reaches free agency.

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  43. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]Agreed. Strasburg signed for $15 million never having thrown a professional pitch. Moore just signed for $15 million after proving he’s one of the best at the professional level. The Rays definitely took advantage of this and Rays fans are going to use it as an example of how awesome their front office is. I’d use it as example of how awful it is. To take advantage of someone like that is horrible and that’s what they did.[/quote]Well, then get pissed off at the CBA, not the Rays. The CBA ensures that Moore could flame out of baseball in a few years having earned next to nothing. The Rays may not have given him what he’s worth, but they gave him something better than what he would’ve gotten under the CBA.

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  44. mb21

    SL was talking recently about how fewer and fewer top talents are hitting the free agent market and now you’ve got Moore as another one. I’m starting to think the Cubs really do need to sign Fielder because of this.

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  45. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]Right now Castro is worth around $50 million before he reaches free agency.[/quote]I knew I could count on you (dying laughing).

    So what did we agree the Cubs should offer to lock him up now? $23M or something? If you make that offer after one month of service time, the number drops a lot because you’re taking on extra risk.

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  46. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]SL was talking recently about how fewer and fewer top talents are hitting the free agent market and now you’ve got Moore as another one. I’m starting to think the Cubs really do need to sign Fielder because of this.[/quote]Looking at it that way, it makes sense. But for how long?

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  47. mb21

    [quote name=fang2415]Well, then get pissed off at the CBA, not the Rays. The CBA ensures that Moore could flame out of baseball in a few years having earned next to nothing. The Rays may not have given him what he’s worth, but they gave him something better than what he would’ve gotten under the CBA.[/quote]I’m pissed at the CBA and at the Rays. The CBA allows this shit, but nobody takes advantage of their young players like the Rays do. The Rays are a perfect example why this shit shouldn’t be allowed. Sooner or later the veterans are going to realize that if you allow guys like Moore to sign these bullshit contracts it hurts their free agent value.

    The only system I’m going to like with young players is a system that allows each player to sign with whoever they want for as much as they want and a system that guarantees free agency no later than 25. Fuck this 6 years of service time shit. If you want to wait until a guy is 24 to call him up, you get 1 year before he’s a free agent.

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  48. mb21

    [quote name=fang2415]I knew I could count on you (dying laughing).

    So what did we agree the Cubs should offer to lock him up now? $23M or something? If you make that offer after one month of service time, the number drops a lot because you’re taking on extra risk.[/quote]I think it was around $23 million for 5 years or $30 million for 6 years. The Cubs get a good discount, but Castro also makes pretty good money. He’s also a free agent at a young age.

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  49. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]SL was talking recently about how fewer and fewer top talents are hitting the free agent market and now you’ve got Moore as another one. I’m starting to think the Cubs really do need to sign Fielder because of this.[/quote]Like I say, I’m surprised that more teams don’t do this, which would cut down the FA market pretty severely. Of course, that would mean that whoever made it to FA would get even higher paydays…

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  50. mb21

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Looking at it that way, it makes sense. But for how long?[/quote]That’s the question. I’d go as high as 6 years. Maybe 7 if the price was right because I think the Cubs are going to have less and less access to top free agents. Building through the farm system got harder and the team is a long fucking way away from being able to produce talent on a yearly basis.

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  51. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]That’s the question. I’d go as high as 6 years. Maybe 7 if the price was right because I think the Cubs are going to have less and less access to top free agents. Building through the farm system got harder and the team is a long fucking way away from being able to produce talent on a yearly basis.[/quote]How about a 10 year deal, but the 8th year is vesting option based on games played, 9th year a mutual option, 10th year a team option?

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  52. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]I’m pissed at the CBA and at the Rays. The CBA allows this shit, but nobody takes advantage of their young players like the Rays do. The Rays are a perfect example why this shit shouldn’t be allowed. Sooner or later the veterans are going to realize that if you allow guys like Moore to sign these bullshit contracts it hurts their free agent value.

    The only system I’m going to like with young players is a system that allows each player to sign with whoever they want for as much as they want and a system that guarantees free agency no later than 25. Fuck this 6 years of service time shit. If you want to wait until a guy is 24 to call him up, you get 1 year before he’s a free agent.[/quote]Makes sense to me. In the meantime though, I’d actually rather be a young player with a Rays-style extension than elsewhere with the usual setup.

    Also, if every team started doing this, then presumably the prices would stabilize and young players would start to be priced more fairly. That would get close to your everyone’s-a-free-agent ideal, wouldn’t it?

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  53. mb21

    If it’s 7 guaranteed years I’m not going to be that happy, but whatever. It’s Prince Fielder. I’ll be ecstatic they got him and worry about the contract later on. They can throw in 20 years worth of options (club or vesting) for all I care. It would be a 7-year deal unless he’s still raking at which point you’d really like to keep him around. That’s fine.

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  54. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]SL was talking recently about how fewer and fewer top talents are hitting the free agent market and now you’ve got Moore as another one. I’m starting to think the Cubs really do need to sign Fielder because of this.[/quote]Also, is the snowball really moving that fast? I could see things moving that way eventually, but the Rays have been doing this for a few years now and nobody else seems to be following their lead.

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  55. mb21

    [quote name=fang2415]Makes sense to me. In the meantime though, I’d actually rather be a young player with a Rays-style extension than elsewhere with the usual setup.

    Also, if every team started doing this, then presumably the prices would stabilize and young players would start to be priced more fairly. That would get close to your everyone’s-a-free-agent ideal, wouldn’t it?[/quote]If I was Moore’s age I would also rather have the $14 million than not, which is why the Rays get away with this shit. It’s also why the system is broken because the player shouldn’t be in that spot.

    If MLB is going to keep the current system then I’d like them to create a rule that does not allow a player to be signed to a longterm contract until he has 2+ years of service time. It’s still a fucked up system, but these absurd contracts would go away. Moore would be worth a shitload more than $14 million after 2 years. The Cubs probably could have signed Castro to a $15 million contract after his first few weeks. After nearly 2 years it would take closer $25 million and that includes a discount. One can easily argue he deserves a $50 million contract.

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  56. fang2415

    [quote name=Mac]Anybody have any thoughts on what deals Thoyer was talking about are in the works for next week?[/quote]Where he say that?

    Makes sense though, unless they just like having six roster spots open in case the FO wants to suit up.

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  57. JMan

    [quote name=mb21]That’s the question. I’d go as high as 6 years. Maybe 7 if the price was right because I think the Cubs are going to have less and less access to top free agents. Building through the farm system got harder and the team is a long fucking way away from being able to produce talent on a yearly basis.[/quote]I think the lack of a power hitter being available on the FA Market for quite a few years is that other factor as to whether they should go after Prince. But I get the sense Thoyer wants to build a team around pitching and defense.

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  58. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]If I was Moore’s age I would also rather have the $14 million than not, which is why the Rays get away with this shit. It’s also why the system is broken because the player shouldn’t be in that spot.

    If MLB is going to keep the current system then I’d like them to create a rule that does not allow a player to be signed to a longterm contract until he has 2+ years of service time. It’s still a fucked up system, but these absurd contracts would go away. Moore would be worth a shitload more than $14 million after 2 years. The Cubs probably could have signed Castro to a $15 million contract after his first few weeks. After nearly 2 years it would take closer $25 million and that includes a discount. One can easily argue he deserves a $50 million contract.[/quote]But that just locks in the bad part of the system, right? If I’d rationally prefer a Rays extension to the standard CBA, then by effectively hard-slotting the indenture, you’d basically deny me what I rationally prefer in order to get me a higher payday later.

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  59. Mucker

    [quote name=fang2415]Where he say that?

    Makes sense though, unless they just like having six roster spots open in case the FO wants to suit up.[/quote]I read that in one of the links somebody posted earlier. He said something about feeling like they were in good position and that they have some moves in the works for next week. Can’t remember where I saw it though.

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  60. fang2415

    The bottom line is that for me as an individual without much money, I’d rather have a 100% chance of making $10M than a 33% chance of making $40M. If I had a shitload of money already (like the team does), then I’d prefer the second one because the EV is higher and losing it doesn’t cripple me.

    I agree that the CBA shouldn’t force young players to roll the dice like that, but I can’t really blame the Rays for offering to balance the scales, certainly not more than I blame other teams for just using the indentured labor and not paying for it at all.

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  61. Mucker

    The Cubs are going to suck the next couple of years with or without Garza. They should trade him now while his stock is high. Marshall too. Unless they are going to sign Fielder and make a run at Cespedes and Darvish, I don’t see the Cubs being able to compete next year with the moves they are making and with what’s left on the market.

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  62. fang2415

    [quote name=fang2415]The bottom line is that for me as an individual without much money, I’d rather have a 100% chance of making $10M than a 33% chance of making $40M.[/quote]BTW those are arbitrary of course, and the real numbers would create different price points. But the point is that risk aversion can be rational, and the Rays recognize that better than the CBA does.

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  63. Smokestack Lightning

    [quote name=mb21]SL was talking recently about how fewer and fewer top talents are hitting the free agent market and now you’ve got Moore as another one. I’m starting to think the Cubs really do need to sign Fielder because of this.[/quote]
    Just taking a quick peek over the next three offseasons, it appears not a whole lot is going to be out there from an offensive standpoint. For hitters 30 and younger this is, best I can find, what is set to hit the market:

    2013:

    Miguel Montero (age 29), Michael Bourn (age 30)
    Melky Cabrera (age 28), Yadier Molina (age 30)
    Mark Reynolds (age 30), Carlos Quentin (age 30)
    Grady Sizemore (age 30), Howie Kendrick (age 30)
    B.J. Upton (age 28)

    2014:

    Joey Votto (age 30), Ryan Zimmerman (age 29)
    Adam Jones (age 28), Jacoby Ellsbury (age 30)
    Asdrubal Cabrera (age 28), Alex Gordon (age 30)

    2015:

    Pablo Sandoval (age 28), Billy Butler (age 28)
    Evan Longoria (age 29), Elvis Andrus (age 26)
    Colby Rasmus (age 28)

    Chances are Ryan Zimmerman, Jacoby Ellsbury won’t see the market. Evan Longoria and Joey Votto could very well be traded between now and FA, but fat chance the Reds give the latter to the Cubs. If the farm is nice and fat here soon maybe we can give up a haul for Longoria, but we’ll have to get in line with everybody else on that one. Obviously some decent pieces there to complement whatever Theo’s building, but nothing like a Fielder or a Pujols.

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  64. Smokestack Lightning

    If we stretch the net to include hitters aged 32 and below, here’s what we add:

    2013:

    Brandon Phillips (age 32), Andre Ethier (age 31)
    Shane Victorino (age 32), Nick Swisher (age 32)
    Mike Napoli (age 31), Josh Hamilton (age 32)

    2014:

    Stephen Drew (age 31), Corey Hart (age 32)
    David Wright (age 31), Hunter Pence (age 31)
    Michael Morse (age 32), Shin-Soo Choo (age 32)
    Kendrys Morales (age 31), Robinson Cano (age 31)
    Ian Kinsler (age 31)

    2015:

    Chris Young (age 31), Hanley Ramirez (age 31)
    Rickie Weeks (age 32), Chase Headley (age 31)
    JJ Hardy (age 32), Nick Markakis (age 31)
    Brett Gardner (age 31), Yunel Escobar (age 32)
    Adam Lind (age 31)

    Some big names, but at a point where serious decline is either already occurring or about to occur. And I’ll be surprised if Napoli, Hamilton, Pence, Cano actually make it to FA bidding.

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  65. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=wpbc]so yellon wants yu darvish at any cost. (dying laughing).[/quote]The cost is that Yellon can never write another fucking word so long as Yu Darvish lives.

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  66. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=wpbc]my four year old is playing football upstairs. he just yelled ‘touchdown montee ball!” poor kid.[/quote]At least he’s not a Tebow fan.

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  67. wpbc

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]The cost is that Yellon can never write another fucking word so long as Yu Darvish lives.[/quote]
    c’mon theo sign him!

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  68. Smokestack Lightning

    Pitching OTOH looks a lot deeper and better.

    Ages 30 and younger set to hit free agency over the next three offseasons:

    2013

    Anibal Sanchez (age 29), Zach Greinke (age 29)
    Cole Hamels (age 29), Matt Cain (age 29)
    John Danks (age 28), Gavin Floyd (age 30)
    Francisco Liriano (age 29), Brandon McCarthy (age 29)

    2014

    Jair Jurrjens (age 28), Josh Johnson (age 30)
    Tim Lincecum (age 30), Ubaldo Jimenez (age 30)
    Phil Hughes (age 28), Brandon Morrow (age 29)

    2015

    Clayton Kershaw (age 27), Yovani Gallardo (age 29)
    Justin Masterson (age 30), Max Scherzer (age 30)
    Brett Anderson (age 27), Felix Hernandez (age 29)

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  69. wpbc

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]At least he’s not a Tebow fan.[/quote]
    i just heard “touchdown devin hester”. he has some hybrid college/nfl game going on up there.

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  70. wpbc

    [quote name=Smokestack Lightning]Pitching OTOH looks a lot deeper and better.

    Ages 30 and younger set to hit free agency over the next three offseasons:

    2013

    Anibal Sanchez (age 29), Zach Greinke (age 29)
    Cole Hamels (age 29), Matt Cain (age 29)
    John Danks (age 28), Gavin Floyd (age 30)
    Francisco Liriano (age 29), Brandon McCarthy (age 29)

    2014

    Jair Jurrjens (age 28), Josh Johnson (age 30)
    Tim Lincecum (age 30), Ubaldo Jimenez (age 30)
    Phil Hughes (age 28), Brandon Morrow (age 29)

    2015

    Clayton Kershaw (age 27), Yovani Gallardo (age 29)
    Justin Masterson (age 30), Max Scherzer (age 30)
    Brett Anderson (age 27), Felix Hernandez (age 29)[/quote]

    imprssive list.

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  71. Smokestack Lightning

    And…adding ages 32 and below…

    2013

    Shaun Marcum (age 31), Daisuke Matsuzaka (age 32)
    Jake Peavy (age 32), Scott Baker (age 31)
    James Shields (age 31)

    2014

    Ricky Nolasco (age 31), Adam Wainwright (age 32)
    Ervin Santana (age 31)

    2015

    Jon Lester (age 31), Justin Verlander (age 32)

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  72. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=wpbc]to your defense, who the hell spells monty with two e’s?[/quote]Dan Quayle

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  73. wpbc

    [quote name=Smokestack Lightning]And…adding ages 32 and below…

    2013

    Shaun Marcum (age 31), Daisuke Matsuzaka (age 32)
    Jake Peavy (age 32), Scott Baker (age 31)
    James Shields (age 31)

    2014

    Ricky Nolasco (age 31), Adam Wainwright (age 32)
    Ervin Santana (age 31)

    2015

    Jon Lester (age 31), Justin Verlander (age 32)[/quote]
    that list doesn’t do as much for me. even with velander and wainwright on it.

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  74. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=wpbc]see mo,

    e’s must be hard to find today.[/quote]In my experience, E’s are always hard to find.

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  75. Smokestack Lightning

    Anyhow, given those lists, seems to me it’s more important to go after Fielder than Darvish (though I wouldn’t be opposed to the Cubs landing both).

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  76. mb21

    [quote name=Smokestack Lightning]Just taking a quick peek over the next three offseasons, it appears not a whole lot is going to be out there from an offensive standpoint. For hitters 30 and younger this is, best I can find, what is set to hit the market:

    2013:

    Miguel Montero (age 29), Michael Bourn (age 30)
    Melky Cabrera (age 28), Yadier Molina (age 30)
    Mark Reynolds (age 30), Carlos Quentin (age 30)
    Grady Sizemore (age 30), Howie Kendrick (age 30)
    B.J. Upton (age 28)

    2014:

    Joey Votto (age 30), Ryan Zimmerman (age 29)
    Adam Jones (age 28), Jacoby Ellsbury (age 30)
    Asdrubal Cabrera (age 28), Alex Gordon (age 30)

    2015:

    Pablo Sandoval (age 28), Billy Butler (age 28)
    Evan Longoria (age 29), Elvis Andrus (age 26)
    Colby Rasmus (age 28)

    Chances are Ryan Zimmerman, Jacoby Ellsbury won’t see the market. Evan Longoria and Joey Votto could very well be traded between now and FA, but fat chance the Reds give the latter to the Cubs. If the farm is nice and fat here soon maybe we can give up a haul for Longoria, but we’ll have to get in line with everybody else on that one. Obviously some decent pieces there to complement whatever Theo’s building, but nothing like a Fielder or a Pujols.[/quote]I’d guess at least half of those guys don’t see the free agent market.

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  77. WenningtonsGorillaCock

    [quote name=BCB]Stewart is a good glove third baseman who has had trouble making enough contract. He’s more of a Theo Epstein player as he strikes out and walks a ton. He hasn’t been helped much by Coors Field throughout his career.[/quote]
    Epstein likes players who strike out a ton?

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  78. mb21

    I noticed earlier how impressive the free agent pitchers are going to be in the near future. As far as offense, though, it says a lot when you’re including Yadier Molina. He’s a great player, but not really because of his offense.

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  79. mb21

    [quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]Epstein likes players who strike out a ton?[/quote]Alvin is confused. The difference between Theo and perhaps a few other GM’s is that he’s not going to stay away from a guy because he strikes out a lot. It doesn’t mean a guy who strikes out a lot is his kind of player. (dying laughing)

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  80. mb21

    [quote name=Smokestack Lightning]Anyhow, given those lists, seems to me it’s more important to go after Fielder than Darvish (though I wouldn’t be opposed to the Cubs landing both).[/quote]Very good point. When you look over the lists, going after Darvish may be too risky. There are several really good pitchers who are going to be available in the near future. Not so much for hitters.

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  81. fang2415

    [quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]Epstein likes players who strike out a ton?[/quote]Remember, Al is a three-true-outcomes guy now that Theo’s been hired and he saw Moneyball.

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  82. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=fang2415]Remember, Al is a three-true-outcomes guy now that Theo’s been hired and he saw Moneyball.[/quote]I anxiously await his ode to Rob Deer.

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  83. WenningtonsGorillaCock

    [quote name=26.2cubsfan]I got this “Alert” from ESPN and was really annoyed. The two numbers have very little to do with each other. One is the estimated value of the asset (probably in discounted cash flow) and the other is contracted expenses. What does one have to do with the other? Not much. You assume Moreno expects an increase in revenues will outweigh the increase in expenses, therefore improving his DCF for most of the length of the contract.

    This is like ESPN comparing how much money the Cubs “spent” in one off-season to how much the Yankees spent. If I promise to pay you $5 per year for 100,000,000 years, I’ve “spent” more than the Angels did this season. Does that make me a large-market baseball franchise?[/quote]
    I saw that and was also annoyed. My buddy bought an old Datsun to race for $500 that needed a lot of work. He spent over $3,000 on a new engine and transmission, roll cage, brakes, etc. The new brakes alone cost more than the entire car! Ha ha ha – isn’t that stupid? Let’s tweet about it!

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  84. wpbc

    [quote name=mb21]Alvin is confused. The difference between Theo and perhaps a few other GM’s is that he’s not going to stay away from a guy because he strikes out a lot. It doesn’t mean a guy who strikes out a lot is his kind of player. (dying laughing)[/quote]
    in the old country we’d call alvin stupid. but this is a kinder gentler place.

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  85. wpbc

    [quote name=mb21]Very good point. When you look over the lists, going after Darvish may be too risky. There are several really good pitchers who are going to be available in the near future. Not so much for hitters.[/quote]
    the expense of the japanese players just seems to be too high. the risk reward thing-a-ma-jing is off.

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  86. wpbc

    i’d like to say it ain’t al’s money, but with the kind of money he pours into this hobby every year that would be incorrect.

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  87. wpbc

    [quote name=fang2415]From… Rule 5? Waivers? Did they just call dibs?

    So is this a guy that they keep, or are they going to flip him to the Bangkok Bruins for cash?[/quote]
    (dying laughing). flip him flip him!

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  88. mb21

    [quote name=wpbc]the expense of the japanese players just seems to be too high. the risk reward thing-a-ma-jing is off.[/quote]FWIW, ccd, I actually think Darvish is going to be worth it. You know me. I’m generally against those high fees the Japanese teams get. However, the difference between Dice-K and Darvish is about like the difference between Greg Maddux and Mike Morgan. Darvish was putting up numbers so significantly better than Dice-K that it’s really hard to imagine him not being good at the MLB level. IIRC, he was about 1 run per 9 better than Dice-K. That’s huge.

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  89. wpbc

    [quote name=mb21]FWIW, ccd, I actually think Darvish is going to be worth it. You know me. I’m generally against those high fees the Japanese teams get. However, the difference between Dice-K and Darvish is about like the difference between Greg Maddux and Mike Morgan. Darvish was putting up numbers so significantly better than Dice-K that it’s really hard to imagine him not being good at the MLB level. IIRC, he was about 1 run per 9 better than Dice-K. That’s huge.[/quote]
    i don’t know. i’m skeptical about all of these players from japan following the great fukudome bidding war. remember he was going to be a hybrid of matsui and ichiro. (dying laughing)

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  90. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=wpbc]can the cubs post lahair?[/quote]Don’t worry. By next season, he’ll be with Cubs’ Japanese farm affiliate to replace his buddy Micah.

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  91. wpbc

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Don’t worry. By next season, he’ll be with Cubs Japanese famr affiliate to replace his buddy Micah.[/quote]
    did micah go thru the posting process?

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  92. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=wpbc]did micah go thru the posting process?[/quote]Yes. The Cubs had to give the Ham Fighters 50 mil to take him.

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  93. fang2415

    Does anybody else think that the most unusual thing Thoyer has done yet is this selling-to-a-Mexican team business? How they hell did they even do that? Was the Mexican GM on their rolodex? Do Mexican teams even have GMs? And if Thoyer know the Mexican market that well… well, how many other markets are there?

    It’s making me wonder if the Superfriends might be looking for international resources in a way not many other people have yet… (Since, after all, they must be doing something smart. Right? Right? (dying laughing))

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  94. Aisle424

    [quote name=wpbc]i don’t know. i’m skeptical about all of these players from japan following the great fukudome bidding war. remember he was going to be a hybrid of matsui and ichiro. (dying laughing)[/quote]
    I always heard that as meaning he had less power than Matsui and wasn’t as fast as Ichiro, which was basically what we got.

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  95. Rice Cube

    [quote name=fang2415](Since, after all, they must be doing something smart. Right? Right? (dying laughing))[/quote]They’re doing SOMETHING…

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  96. fang2415

    [quote name=wpbc]in the old countryin the tags for the article we’d call alvin stupida dipshit. but this is a kinder gentler place.[/quote].

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  97. fang2415

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yes. The Cubs had to give the Ham Fighters 50 mil to take him.[/quote](dying laughing), (dying laughing) at this. The teams all enter a bidding system, and the team that pays the most money doesn’t have to take Micah Hoffpauir. (dying laughing)

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  98. mb21

    [quote name=wpbc]i don’t know. i’m skeptical about all of these players from japan following the great fukudome bidding war. remember he was going to be a hybrid of matsui and ichiro. (dying laughing)[/quote]Yeah, that’s what the scouts and talking heads tried to tell us, but if you remember, I took a look at his stats and compared them to other Japanese position players who came to the US. The result was a HUGE drop in OPS and I think I ended up at around .775 or something. Darvish is something else though. I wouldn’t mind spending the money, but I also understand if they don’t with all the talented pitchers becoming available over the next few years.

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  99. Rodrigo Ramirez

    Not sure if someone talked about this already, but regarding Ian Stewart:

    Maybe Thoyer see something in him the way they did with Bill Mueller back in 03/04? I remember them saying they identified him as a player they believed would turn it around; had a good approach for the short fence in Boston; played good enough D, etc.

    Am I reaching here?

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