Since the Cubs are set to rebuild we may as well start taking a look at some of the players the Cubs might try to move in the next several weeks. Obviously Matt Garza has a lot of value. Sean Marshall was probably next on the list, but his value was limited. Off the top of my head I don’t think the Cubs really have anybody else that would bring much in a return.
However, it’s better to look at some numbers and see if they back that opinion up. The fans project 1.4 WAR, Bill James projects a 3.75 FIP over 75 innings. If we calculate his WAR using a 4.2 league average FIP he’s worth about 1 WAR. CAIRO projects .9 WAR and Oliver projects 1.5 WAR. That’s an average of 1.2 WAR. If we use $5 million per win he’s worth $6 million in 2012. Even if we use a modest decline in his age 30 season (2013) that’s 1 WAR and $5.25 million.
Over the next two years he’s due $16.7 million and is expected to produce $11.25 million in value. As you can see, if the Cubs wanted to trade Marmol they’d have to kick in about $5.5 million and would still get nothing in return. You think that’s too low? Ok, let’s try this.
A little over a year ago I took a look at Heath Bell, Brian Wilson and Carlos Marmol. This is what I wrote at the time.
Marmol will be eligible for arbitration for the second time and has nailed down the closer’s role. If we guess that he’ll have an average FIP projection of around 3.3, it makes him worth about the same as Wilson was worth last season ($6.5 million). However, arbitration is based on how much similar players have gotten so the roughly $4 million contracts each got is comparable to what Marmol is likely to get.
For what it’s worth, if the Cubs aren’t planning to contend next season as it appears they are not, they should be trying to trade Marmol this offseason. They won’t. They’ll keep him for two more seasons, not win, and then not even offer him arbitration when he is eligible to file for free agency after 2012. It’s a way of life!
The Cubs did one better than a two-year deal. They gave him a 3-year deal for about $21 million. Last January I took another look at these three players.
There’s a reason Barry Praver is looking to get a multi-year deal done for his client, Carlos Marmol. That reason is because the Brian Wilson contract becomes the most comparable deal and therefore Marmol is going to be looking for $15 million or more over his final two years of arbitration. What Praver doesn’t want is for Marmol to be signed to just one year becuase Heath Bell is then the most comparable player. Bell got $4 mllion in his second year of arbitration.
…
If we consider ballpark to some extend here, Marmol has posted the more sparkling ERA than Bell, but not nearly as good as Wilson. Bell and Marmol are probably about equal after ballpark adjustments in FIP, but Wilson leads by a large margin again. Wilson has the better xFIP and Bell is a bit behind him, but both are significantly better than Marmol. As for WAR, Marmol is a bit better than Bell, but both are well behind Brian Wilson. So it makes perfect sense that Wilson is getting paid more. The question is how much should Carlos Marmol get?
If the Cubs want to buy out his final two years of arbitration, then the Brian Wilson contract is what we look at. If instead they decide to only sign him for one year, they can get a much better deal. My guess is that Marmol wants more money over two years than the Cubs are willing to spend, or at least I hope so. I’m hoping they end up at around $4 million for one year becuase two years and $15 million is retarded.
The reason I’m bringing this up is that Heath Bell was a free agent this offseason and signed a 3-year deal with the Marlins for $27 million. Over the last four years Bell has been worth 4.9 fWAR and 6.2 rWAR. Marmol has been worth 4.4 fWAR and 5.4 rWAR. Bell has basically been half a win better per season over the last three years. Bell is older, but both are past their prime.
If Marmol was a free agent he could expect a bit less than the 3-years, $27 million that Bell got. I’d guess about 3-years, $24 million or $8 million per season. Marmol is making $8.4 million per year over the next two seasons.
Even if we compare Marmol to a player he is similar to, we find he still has no surplus value. Trading Marmol will be a salary dump. The Cubs could throw in some money to get a prospect back, which is probably what they’d do. Who would take over his role if the Cubs traded him?
Prior to a couple days ago the obvious answer was Sean Marshall. He’s gone and the Cubs are currently without a setup man. It’s highly likely the Cubs will re-sign Kerry Wood. He could easily take over the closer’s role. He’s no longer a great pitcher, but he still can provide some value. Signing Wood for one year would allow Andrew Cashner or another young player to grow into the role.
If I had to guess, I’d guess the Cubs don’t trade Marmol. I doubt their confident enough in the rest of their bullpen. They probably went into this offseason with the intention to trade Marmol or Marshall and realized quickly that Marshall had a lot more value than Marmol. If Marmol gets off to a great start he could improve his value and closers are always in demand around the trade deadline.
Trading Carlos Marmol for something would have been a great idea last offseason, but once the Cubs signed him to that 3-year contract he had no trade value.
No
[quote name=Suburban kid]No[/quote]You are correct.
Beltran –> Cardinals
2 years, $26MM. No draft picks in compensation due to a goofy clause in Beltran’s contract. Seems like a nice deal by the Cards.
btw, sk:
The video cannot be shown at the moment. Please try again later.
The Cubs signed right-handed reliever Manny Carpas to a 1-year deal. Let’s say he’s no Sean Marshall.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/corpama01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker
*Corpas
[quote name=ACT]The Cubs signed right-handed reliever Manny Carpas to a 1-year deal. Let’s say he’s no Sean Marshall.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/corpama01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker/quoteI prefer to act like Sean Marshall never existed, and was just a fever dream.
I think the MLBTR guy is a Cubs fan, but he suggests 2014 as a realistic target for contention:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/cubs-planning-complete-and-total-rebuild.html
Inverted “W” alert.
[quote name=josh]I prefer to act like Sean Marshall never existed, and was just a fever dream.[/quote]Then where did Travis Wood come from?
[quote name=ACT]Then where did Travis Wood come from?[/quote]*Sobs*
[quote name=ACT]Then where did Travis Wood come from?[/quote]Well, when Mommy Wood and Daddy Wood love each other very much…
[quote name=ACT]Then where did Travis Wood come from?[/quote]
Mr. and Mrs. Wood loved each other very much…
Well played, RC.
[quote name=Aisle424]Mr. and Mrs. Wood loved each other very much…[/quote]
I’ll see your reference and raise you…
Let’s say best case scenario that Castro turns out to be a superstar. Unlikely, I know, but if that happened, where he had a breakout year and a few more years of being good, do you build the team around him, or trade him for some top prospects? If we’re at least 5 years from contending and he has 2 good seasons in the midst of the Cubs doing not so well, what do you do with him?
I thought maybe they see how he does for this next year, then offer him an extension to buy out arbitration plus some free agent years.
So Manny Corpas is bullpen fodder to add cheap depth
or
So Manny Corpas was brought in because he has closer experience and this is a sign that Marmol is on his way out because now there is a closer with experience in the pen to replace him….
[quote name=snyds01 22]So Manny Corpas is bullpen fodder to add cheap depth
or
So Manny Corpas was brought in because he has closer experience and this is a sign that Marmol is on his way out because now there is a closer with experience in the pen to replace him….[/quote]If a team isn’t competing who cares who owes games? I think he is bullpen fodder that might bring a decent prospect or comp pick if he is good.
[quote name=GW]btw, sk:
The video cannot be shown at the moment. Please try again later.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
BTW, GW, congrats on your other recent achievement. You might even be ready for the Cubs’ bullpen:
http://tinyurl.com/39pqm42
[quote name=Rice Cube]
Inverted “W” alert.[/quote]The Carlos Marmol image in this thread is also an inverted W pic. Surprised no one mentioned it.
I don’t know why you guys are calling it an inverted W when it is clearly a rotated Sigma.
[quote name=mb21]The Carlos Marmol image in this thread is also an inverted W pic. Surprised no one mentioned it.[/quote]I figured that was already implied for Marmol.
And Merry Christmas MB (song 17)
http://www.archive.org/details/gd71-12-10.sbd.yerys.1311.sbeok.shnf
I updated the payroll page and added the projected roster post to the menu as well. Both are updated as of this morning. The heading on the menu is Roster.
I’ve heard Torreyes has some good upside. But don’t really know much about hiim or Sappelt.
So I saw an article linked a site I visit about how Matt Damon is upset at Obama. I cannot for the life of me figure out why people give a shit what Hollywood thinks of politicians. I’d rather ask Joe Nobody what his thoughts are than give one fuck what any of them say. And I barely give a fuck what Joe Nobody thinks.
The sad thing is that people obviously care. They wouldn’t always be asked these retarded questions if there weren’t some silly people sitting around wondering, “what does Matt Damon think of our President?” Unbelievable.
Sappelt doesnt seem like much and Torreyes is years away. About what you would expect
Torreyes absolute raked in the MWL at the age of 18: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=torrey001ron
He hit .356/.398/.457. He doesn’t have much power, but as a middle infielder at his age and at that level that’s damn good.
Sappelt has hit pretty well in the minors through age 24: .309/.362/.459. He can play all 3 outfield spots. He got a little over 100 PA with the Reds last season.
Sappelt has an .838 OPS in AAA (IL). League average over those 2 years is about .730 so he’s hit really well for a center fielder. Not a guy with a lot of upside though.
http://www.daytondailynews.com/dayton-sports/dayton-dragons/energetic-torreyes-stands-tall-despite-his-slight-build-1223863.html
nice little article about a nice little player
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=sappel001dav
[quote name=mb21]So I saw an article linked a site I visit about how Matt Damon is upset at Obama. I cannot for the life of me figure out why people give a shit what Hollywood thinks of politicians. I’d rather ask Joe Nobody what his thoughts are than give one fuck what any of them say. And I barely give a fuck what Joe Nobody thinks.
The sad thing is that people obviously care. They wouldn’t always be asked these retarded questions if there weren’t some silly people sitting around wondering, “what does Matt Damon think of our President?” Unbelievable.[/quote]
[quote name=Obama's Response to Damon]“I’ve even let down my key core constituency: movie stars. Just the other day, Matt Damon — I love Matt Damon, love the guy — Matt Damon said he was disappointed in my performance. Well, Matt, I just saw ‘The Adjustment Bureau,’ so — right back atcha, buddy.”[/quote].
seems like Torreyes can pick it as well.
Baseball America top Reds 2012 prospects chat
did he make top 30?
[quote name=mb21]So I saw an article linked a site I visit about how Matt Damon is upset at Obama. I cannot for the life of me figure out why people give a shit what Hollywood thinks of politicians. I’d rather ask Joe Nobody what his thoughts are than give one fuck what any of them say. And I barely give a fuck what Joe Nobody thinks.
The sad thing is that people obviously care. They wouldn’t always be asked these retarded questions if there weren’t some silly people sitting around wondering, “what does Matt Damon think of our President?” Unbelievable.[/quote]Didn’t he call Sarah Palin out for believing humans cohabited with dinosaurs? That’s enough to qualify him as a political expert to me.
That is awesome. (dying laughing)
[quote name=dylanj]did he make top 30?[/quote]They don’t release the top 30 until the book comes out. I can’t imagine he won’t considering that kind of praise.
well we got a MLB ready back end starter, a AAA/5th OF and an upside prospect.
Still prefer what SD got for Adams but it is what it is
I figure Torreyes moves up to High A and Sappelt will be in AAA.
He never strikes out and doesnt walk much either. Vitters.
[quote name=dylanj]well we got a MLB ready back end starter, a AAA/5th OF and an upside prospect.
Still prefer what SD got for Adams but it is what it is[/quote]I don’t know if I buy all this back-end starter stuff. Oliver and the Fan’s project him to be better than average. CAIRO has him at about 1 over 200 innings. Average that along with the Bill James and you’ve got a guy who is league average. If that’s who is filling out the back-end of your rotation you’ve got a damn good rotation then. Based on his early career performance and the projections I think he’s more of a number 3 starter. He’s average.
[quote name=dylanj]He never strikes out and doesnt walk much either. Vitters.[/quote]At least he can field. Torreyes is one of those guys who is probably not going to make it, but there is some upside there. I like that.
[quote name=ACT]Didn’t he call Sarah Palin out for believing humans cohabited with dinosaurs? That’s enough to qualify him as a political expert to me.[/quote]I don’t know. I try not to pay attention to a damn word those people say that doesn’t have anything to do with acting.
thats a fair point. The trade will really hinge on whether Wood is the 2010 or 2011 version. Law & Goldstein say their isnt upside there. Maybe the Superfriends see something they can improve on
Sappelt’s wRC+ at each level
wRC+: 114, 102, 114, 49, 91, 157, 132, 127
PA: 279, 331, 271, 76, 77, 372, 115, 336
118 PA MLB level, 63 wRC+, +4.7 UZR, .3 WAR
The only time in the minors he’s been below average is when he had less than 80 PA. I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes Campana’s spot on the roster.
I’m a bit late, but:
Maaatt…Damoooon…
[quote name=dylanj]thats a fair point. The trade will really hinge on whether Wood is the 2010 or 2011 version. Law & Goldstein say their isnt upside there. Maybe the Superfriends see something they can improve on[/quote]I’d agree there’s not upside there in that he won’t be a star player, but I don’t think he has to be a star player. Truthfully, I’m OK with the trade no matter what. The Cubs got a pretty good haul for a middle reliever with one year left on his contract. If the Cubs had given him the closer’s role last year he’d have had a lot more value, but they didn’t.
[quote name=mb21] I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes Campana’s spot on the roster.[/quote]That’ll piss some people off.
[quote name=ACT]That’ll piss some people off.[/quote]Do we care? (dying laughing)
Randy Wells. That’s the type of upside that I’d say Travis Wood has. He can be better than average and important part of a rotation, but that’s about it.
It would take Tony’s spot if we dont trade Byrd or Soriano. I think Byrd is gone.
[quote name=ACT]That’ll piss some people off.[/quote]Those people are going to be pissed off when the only names they recognize on Opening Day are Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano and Starlin Castro.
[quote name=dylanj]It would take Tony’s spot if we dont trade Byrd or Soriano. I think Byrd is gone.[/quote]Good point. I also think Byrd is gone. Sappelt and Campana could hold down CF until Jackson is ready (if he isn’t already).
[quote name=mb21]Good point. I also think Byrd is gone. Sappelt and Campana could hold down CF until Jackson is ready (if he isn’t already).[/quote]
At some point yesterday Paul Sullivan retweeted someone else who claimed they saw Theo and Byrd eating lunch together, so take from that what you will.
[quote name=dylanj]thats a fair point. The trade will really hinge on whether Wood is the 2010 or 2011 version. Law & Goldstein say their isnt upside there. Maybe the Superfriends see something they can improve on[/quote]I think Law said if he changes his pitching approach there is potential to be a #3. I think he mentioned ditching his 4-seamer…basically going to back to throwing the pitches he did in 2010.
So, anyway, much as I’ll miss Marshall, this looks like a really good deal for the Cubs. The Reds were a little overzealous, it seems.
[quote name=Rice Cube]At some point yesterday Paul Sullivan retweeted someone else who claimed they saw Theo and Byrd eating lunch together, so take from that what you will.[/quote]Was the guy who Sullivan retweeted wearing a purple shirt?
[quote name=WaLi]Was the guy who Sullivan retweeted wearing a purple shirt?[/quote]I didn’t ask (dying laughing)
[quote name=JMan]I think Law said if he changes his pitching approach there is potential to be a #3. I think he mentioned ditching his 4-seamer…basically going to back to throwing the pitches he did in 2010.[/quote]Yeah, that’s what I noticed on Fangraphs. He threw about the same number of fastballs, but mostly ditched the one he threw in 2010.
[quote name=ACT]So, anyway, much as I’ll miss Marshall, this looks like a really good deal for the Cubs. The Reds were a little overzealous, it seems.[/quote]I’ve read some Reds fans rationalizing it by saying they could sign him to an extension. Doesn’t matter. You’re still paying market rate for a pitcher who you gave up a lot to get. Best thing for the Reds at this point would be to let Marshall walk at the end of the year. Actually, best thing would be for them to use him as their closer and then let him walk.
here’s food for thought
When Castro was 18 he was in RK ball and posted a .823 OPS
Torreyes was 18 in A ball posting a .855.
Now, Castro had/has a much more projectable frame to develop and got promoted straight to high A where he really took off but its promising.
[quote name=ACT]That’ll piss some people off.[/quote]They’ll probably call Theo a cheap, lying, no-good, rotten, four-flushing, low-life, snake-licking, dirt-eating, inbred, overstuffed, ignorant, blood-sucking, dog-kissing, brainless, dickless, hopeless, heartless, fat-ass, bug-eyed, stiff-legged, spotty-lipped, worm-headed sack of monkey shit he is!
Hallelujah! Holy shit! Where’s the Tylenol?
[quote name=WaLi]They’ll probably call Theo a cheap, lying, no-good, rotten, four-flushing, low-life, snake-licking, dirt-eating, inbred, overstuffed, ignorant, blood-sucking, dog-kissing, brainless, dickless, hopeless, heartless, fat-ass, bug-eyed, stiff-legged, spotty-lipped, worm-headed sack of monkey shit he is!
Hallelujah! Holy shit! Where’s the Tylenol?[/quote]
So tell us how you really feel.
[quote name=Rice Cube]So tell us how you really feel.[/quote]I feel like we’re gonna press on, and we’re gonna have the hap, hap, happiest Christmas since Bing Crosby tap-danced with Danny fucking Kaye. And when Santa squeezes his fat white ass down that chimney tomorrow night, he’s gonna find the jolliest bunch of assholes this side of the nuthouse.
[quote name=mb21]Yeah, that’s what I noticed on Fangraphs. He threw about the same number of fastballs, but mostly ditched the one he threw in 2010.[/quote]That’s right…I thought you had a write-up on him earlier. KLaw basically confirmed what you saw and opined that it was to his benefit to go back to the 2010 approach.
i still think Marshall is one of the most undervalued guys in baseball. I like guys who excel without needing a massive fastball because those tend to decay over time.
That said, Sean has added 4 MPH to his heater in the last two years. Which are also his best years
[quote name=WaLi]I feel like we’re gonna press on, and we’re gonna have the hap, hap, happiest Baseball Season since Ron Santo heel-click’d with Ernie fucking Banks. And when Zambrano squeezes his fat latino ass in that Cubs uniform opening day, he’s gonna find the jolliest bunch of assholes this side of the nuthouse.[/quote]/edited to make Cubs related
so the cubs signed Reed Johnson and now have Dave Sappelt who is also likely a 4th OF. Ummm, I’m guessing Soriano and/or Byrd is leaving shortly.
if 2012 is a lost year I just want to see Campana play every day. At least he has one totally awesome skill set.
Does Sappelt have options left?
[quote name=dylanj]Does Sappelt have options left?[/quote]he should have plenty as he has only attained 118 PAs in the majors thus far.
What does Matt Damon think of Marmol’s trade value?
[quote name=GBTS]What does Matt Damon think of Marmol’s trade value?[/quote]
Maaaaatt…Daaaamooooon…
[quote name=mb21]So I saw an article linked a site I visit about how Matt Damon is upset at Obama. I cannot for the life of me figure out why people give a shit what Hollywood thinks of politicians. I’d rather ask Joe Nobody what his thoughts are than give one fuck what any of them say. And I barely give a fuck what Joe Nobody thinks.
The sad thing is that people obviously care. They wouldn’t always be asked these retarded questions if there weren’t some silly people sitting around wondering, “what does Matt Damon think of our President?” Unbelievable.[/quote]
It’s the same f’n people that can’t think or make decisions on their own. Nothing more than followers, they are the sheeple of the earth. To bad we can’t find a herder and lead them off a tall cliff.
Given the extreme volatility inherent to reliever production, I’m still having a hard time believing the Cubs got what they did for a pitcher at the doorstep of 30 who may or may not give the Reds 70 good innings and then require many millions thereafter.
Even if at best Wood, Sappelt, and Torreyes become merely serviceable big league players, this is a rather large win.
Love the trade. Really excited about Torres. Young for his level and good OBP..
The superfriends are making bubbles happy
Also are we now accepting that Soriano will be on opening day roster? I cant see them cutting him…
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Also are we now accepting that Soriano will be on opening day roster? I cant see them cutting him…[/quote]With the payroll commitments going down I could see it leading to Thoyer eating 45M or more to move him. An AL team wanting power may likely be interested since they wouldn’t owe much and he’d likely rebound some not having to play D.
Keith law likes the deal quite a bit
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/law_keith/id/7384097/mlb-cincinnati-reds-acquire-sean-marshall-chicago-cubs-win-now-move
I like these minor leaguers. They probably won’t be stars but really useful. Torreyes struck out in only 7% of his PA’s as an 18 year old in A ball. That’s alot of contact.
The new Cubs plan:
[quote name=mb21]So I saw an article linked a site I visit about how Matt Damon is upset at Obama. I cannot for the life of me figure out why people give a shit what Hollywood thinks of politicians. I’d rather ask Joe Nobody what his thoughts are than give one fuck what any of them say. And I barely give a fuck what Joe Nobody thinks.
The sad thing is that people obviously care. They wouldn’t always be asked these retarded questions if there weren’t some silly people sitting around wondering, “what does Matt Damon think of our President?” Unbelievable.[/quote]
I totally agree on principle, but as I type this, the documentary that Damon produced about the financial crisis is on at our house, and its very detailed and pretty devastating.
[quote name=Urk]I totally agree on principle, but as I type this, the documentary that Damon produced about the financial crisis is on at our house, and its very detailed and pretty devastating.[/quote]I’m sure some of them are intelligent and Matt may be one of them, but what bothers me is that there is obviously a desire by fans to have that information and that’s troubling to me.
[quote name=Urk]I totally agree on principle, but as I type this, the documentary that Damon produced about the financial crisis is on at our house, and its very detailed and pretty devastating.[/quote]
True, but he’s starring in We Bought a Zoo, so I’m thinking the two cancel each other out.
(And btw, I never trust a documentary.)
Theo on trade:
[quote name=mb21]I don’t know. I try not to pay attention to a damn word those people say that doesn’t have anything to do with acting.[/quote]You would have had a hard time analyzing US political events between 1980 and 1988.
[quote name=fang2415]You would have had a hard time analyzing US political events between 1980 and 1988.[/quote]Unless you consider Reagan’s presidency as a piece of performance art, that is. (dying laughing)
[quote name=fang2415]Unless you consider Reagan’s presidency as a piece of performance art, that is. (dying laughing)[/quote]
*insert Phil Hartman’s Reagan SNL skit here*
[quote name=mb21]So I saw an article linked a site I visit about how Matt Damon is upset at Obama. I cannot for the life of me figure out why people give a shit what Hollywood thinks of politicians. I’d rather ask Joe Nobody what his thoughts are than give one fuck what any of them say. And I barely give a fuck what Joe Nobody thinks.
The sad thing is that people obviously care. They wouldn’t always be asked these retarded questions if there weren’t some silly people sitting around wondering, “what does Matt Damon think of our President?” Unbelievable.[/quote]
Fuck you.
[quote name=GBTS]What does Matt Damon think of Marmol’s trade value?[/quote]
“He likes them apples.”
[quote name=mb21]I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes Campana’s spot on the roster.[/quote]
Average Cubs fan:
More seriously, this is the type of trade that you build franchises on. Obviously this one trade won’t turn the team’s fortunes around, but when you do this repeatedly you get continued, incremental improvement. That more than anything else is what will build and sustain success.
new thread up: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/this-weeks-transactions.html