Last night was our second annual Discredited Fantasy Baseball draft. I'm posting the results here for people to vote on who drafted the best. I'm particularly interested because of the twelve teams, six were drafted by robots. We'll see if teams drafted with the heart and grit only possessed by humans are better than ones drafted by cold and heartless spreadsheets.
As a reminder, it's a saber-friendly roto league. Offensive categories: OBP, SLG, R, RBI, Net SB. Pitching categories: QS, WHIP, K, ERA, SV. Teams start four OF, one extra IF, one UTIL, and can have 9 total pitchers of any kind. The teams are listed in the order they drafted.
Vote in the comments.
I like Team 10, but I didn’t do any particular calculations. Seems like a good rotation.
I haven’t had a time to look through these closely, but I have to scratch team 12 from the best draft based on their first two picks. Longoria is a great pick, but Kinsler next? Later in that round the following players were taken: Kershaw, Hanley Ramirez, Verlander, A-Gon, Fielder, Pedroia, and Cliff Lee. Any of them should have been picked ahead of Kinsler. Then again, I’m not all that familiar with fantasy baseball, but it’s hard to imagine Kinsler providing more value than any of them.
josh wrote:
Yeah, I think most teams would be happy to have Halladay, Kershaw, Lincecum, Moore, and Wainwright.
I liked this part:
@ mb21:
We tried to do R + RBI but they didn’t have it.
@ ACT:
That’s funny, I didn’t even notice Kershaw.
I’m surprised Votto lasted until the 7th pick. I might have taken him 1st.
I’m not sure team 7 is the best overall, but I think they have the best position player in the game and the best pitcher in baseball.
I don’t want to give away which team is which, but ESPN’s draft room compiles roto-rankings based on the projections for the players and my team was in 1st place by about 10 points. I don’t know who was 2nd. I only cared about myself.
@ mb21:
mb, not sure if you figured out the answer to your stats question or not…haven’t read a ton of comments in the last few days. but you can use the normdist function in excel as follows
=NORMDIST(.360,.330,.015,1)
this means you are trying to calculate the probability that a batter with an .330 OBA will post a .360 OBA where the std dev is 0.015. the 1 is a true/false for whether or not the function is cumulative. put this into excel and you will get a result of 0.97725 (so there is a 2.3% chance that a player will perform at this level). from here it is simple enough to write a macro that lets you get 0.800 as your given answer and the variable is the desired OBA (i.e. the “.360″ in the above function). not sure if i answered your question but i can help you more if you want me to.
I think most of the live-drafted teams were ahead of most of the computer-drafted teams, which makes me think that we are at least smarter than ESPN’s fantasy baseball computers.
TLDR –> Team 1.
I voted team 2. Tulo, Lee, King Felix is probably better than any other top 3. Ugla, Price, Mo and Bumgarner very strong 4 through 7 picks.
Aisle424 wrote:
@ mb21:
Think like WAR; it’s much easier to replace a 1B with decent numbers. Finding a SS or CF who can put up numbers similar to Tulo or Kemp are harder to come by.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Thanks a lot for you input here. I was able to figure it out, but I got help from SG on RLWY so he’s owed all the credit.
@ mb21:
I assume you’re referring to Carlos Zambrano and Alfonso Soriano.
Kinsler might have been high, but in the world of fantasy, it sounds about right. If healthy ( a big if), he’s a 20 HR/20 SB guy, and hitting in that offense, will score lots of runs or have opportunities to drive him in. And even tho he’s been more of a non-entity the last few years, Chase Utley’s injury really hurts the depth at 2B.
Mish wrote:
We don’t break it down by OF position though, so that generally dilutes the value of a centerfielder unless you are talking about steals.
@ GBTS:
i live in baltimore and go down to silver spring every so often. it’s not bad. there are a decent amount of younger people there who i assume don’t want to pay to live downtown, but still want a social life. lots of families too though so it’s not like being downtown, but there is a decent amount of social stuff going on for being basically in the suburbs, plus the red line goes right through downtown silver spring so you can get into the city very easily. it kind of reminds me of oak park. i’m not a big fan of the suburban living in general but i wouldn’t mind being in silver spring, especially if i was working in rockville. this is also because there are very few places in downtown DC that i’ve been to that i didn’t hate.
Mish wrote:
There are a bunch of guys with 2b eligibility with pretty decent bats though. That position doesn’t have the scarcity it used to. 3B and SS seemed to be the shallowest this year. Even catcher has a bunch of guys with potential upside. I picked Soto up off waivers in my keeper/auction league.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I like that your name links to Pottery Barn.
I’m going to clean up in that league. done deal. sealed.
@ josh:
I’ve been wondering about that.
I voted team 4
I think Team 1 is clearly tops, stud hitting and two elite pitchers at the top. Sick draft.
Team 10 clearly has the best pitching but that offense is teetering on disaster if Berkman/Beltran don’t have spectacular seasons again.
@ Aisle424:
I neither drafted for my team nor am aware of league settings. In short: I did not read every word in our league. (dying laughing)
http://grrm.livejournal.com/274213.html
get to work
@ Mish:
(dying laughing) We could also have Mish vote on which team he thinks is his.
Cubs announce special “Special Events” events. With extra-cost tickets, no less. I don’t know which I’m more excited for: Social Media Night I, Social Media Night II, Singles Night (“Each ticket package will include a special Cubs “Singles Night” T-shirt to let other singles know that you are ready to mingle”) or Weather Appreciation Day? (dying laughing)
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/chc/ticketing/specialevents.jsp?partnerId=ed-5699958-256841560
@ GBTS:
Like I said, I didn’t do a thorough analysis, plus I don’t know how fantasy baseball really works. I mean, I basically get it, but the nuances I don’t know about.
Tebow trade may be nullified, but this made me (dying laughing):
http://deadspin.com/5895308/the-guy-who-wrote-game-of-thrones-hates-the-tebow-trade
GRRM should stop blogging about Tebow and start finishing Book 6.
@ mb21:
I lile Team 2 except for the inexplicable run on closers in rounds 6 through 12. (dying laughing)
@ GW:
Yes. This.
I’ll update the post with who is who in a little bit.
@ GBTS:
I got the email but I never checked which players I got. My name from last year was Amusingly Wrong. I’ll say Team 5. (dying laughing)
WenningtonsGorillaCock wrote:
This has been a post that has been percolating in the back of my head for a couple of days. I may have to get off my ass and write it.
deleted
[CENSORED]
@ Mish:
Amusing, but wrong. (dying laughing)
{redacted}
@ GBTS:
Uh…Team 3?
I liked Team 2. I wish they played for the Cubs.
Well, Soto does, but the other guys should too.
ENOUGH!
If you guys don’t knock off all the synonyms for editing, I am going to go on the most edited rant you have ever seen!
Aisle424 wrote:
@ [Name Redacted]:
go for it
Do we get to find out which teams were drafted by robots, or is this part of the experiment?
What the fuck is going on?
MB, your Eric Clapton story kicks the shit out of my Eric Clapton stories.
Someone should’ve drafted F7. Apologies if I missed it up top, lots of blue.
http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/7718764/chicago-cubs-general-manager-jed-hoyer-impressed-jeff-samardzija
Well I don’t think I can edit the actual post, so here:
Team 1 – GW (Human)
Team 2 – “They Smashed My Boombox” (Human and defending champion)
Team 3 – Mish (Robot)
Team 4 – Wennington’s Gorilla Cock (Robot)
Team 5 – GBTS (Human)
Team 6 – Serbian King (Robot)
Team 7 – Bellewether Meltdown (Human who hasn’t posted here since 2002)
Team 8 – PFD (Robot)
Team 9 – “The Secret Weapons” (Pezcore? Either way, human)
Team 10 – Aisley (Human)
Team 11 – Nate (Robot)
Team 12 – “Team Dau” (Cyborg – Dau showed up to draft his first two picks and then left to watch a Portland Trailblazers Game)
Just got back from the Nats/Braves practice game. Nats fans were talking shit to Jayson Werth for not running into a wall to make a play on a foul ball. smh. Heyward spent the day practicing hitting balls out of the zone. He needs more practice.
@ cdw*:
Were they saying “C’mon, Jayson! Hurt yourself in spring training so you’ll be even less valuable, because I’m too cheap to buy regular season ticket games and expect full competition!”?
Of course, nobody can top my Boy George story.
They used some pretty lame taunts about his long hair/beard and laziness. He told them to go back to eating their sandwiches. But yeah, they were pretty stupid. Obviously, if he had gone after it and hurt himself he would be an idiot. Seriously though, that would have been a bad decision. I’m shocked they didn’t boo Fredi Gonzalez for pulling the starting pitcher after only pitching four inning.
Sori’s ST slash line: .357/.333/.893
(Like Castro, he hasn’t drawn a walk yet.)
cdw* wrote:
Alvin was there?
GBTS wrote:
This is the first I’ve heard that I’m in this league (dying laughing)
@ Suburban kid:
I don’t know about that. It’s not like he and I exchanged hellos or gave each other fist bumps. I was just surprised to see him there. Right away I knew it was him, but I was thinking there’s no way it’s him. Looked exactly like him. And then, “Hi, my name is Eric…”
I was still unsure if it was him or not. It’s fucking Kansas City so I looked at his tour schedule and sure enough, he was in town.
GBTS wrote:
What the fuck happened with him? I thought he died or something.
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
(dying laughing)
mb21 wrote:
MB: “PLAY LAYLA!!!”
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
(dying laughing) The team’s abbreviation is “WGC,” I just assumed it was you.
Were you in last year? It just rolled over.
@ GBTS:
Winston’s Gorilla Cock
@ mb21:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Churchill was pretty huge.
I don’t think Bellwether posted at ACB after 2007. Surprised he’s still around.
@ mb21:
He’s the guy who brought me over to ACB in the first place. He works ungodly hours.
@ GBTS:
As was FDR and Stalin. They weren’t called The Big Three for nothing.
@ GBTS:
He brought you over and forgot to pick you up? I’d be pissed.
My plan was to draft as many Cardinals as possible to watch them die slow deaths. It’s already working with Carpenter in my other league.
GBTS wrote:
Santorum does not approve this message.
The Jets just got 50% shittier.
Hammer ————-> Saints
Payton banned for season, Williams banned INDEFINITELY, Saints GM banned for 1/2 season. $500K fine, loss of 2nd round picks this year and next.
Fuck and yes.
Just got an email letting me know I’m apparently in the fantasy league, and have Team 8. Your all going down.
Also, not that too many Illini fans frequent these parts, but the Illini really embarrassed themselves with this Shaka Smart thing. So much leakage, and now ESPN reporting we offer him 3 mil and he wants no part of it. Pathetic.
@ mb21:
That’s pretty awesome.
Clapton only came into a bookstore I was working in. I didn’t wait on him or anything. Unlike Boy George.
@ PFD:
That’s disgusting.
New season tickets look pretty sweet:
Those tickets are fucking sweet.
@ Aisle424:
Which game is Koyie Hill pictured on?
@ mb21:
FDR is an American badass, after all.
@ mb21:
Game 163. He shows up all the time. Grinder.
mb21 wrote:
The grittiest one.
Yeah the new tickets are awesome.
@ Aisle424:
The Cubs need to identify the grittiest player on this year’s roster, re-sign him for next season, and then print his picture on a ticket made of 20 grit sandpaper.
I love that Kingman is on the tickets. During my first trip to Wrigley, some drunk dude spent a lot of time explaining to me that Kingman was “fucking worthless.” I was eight. My mother was not happy.
@ Aisle424:
WE ARE SABR. DAVE KINGMAN IS OUR 3TO GOD. YOU SHUT YOUR WHORE MOUTH.
@ Suburban kid:
My only celebrity story is that Richard Gere filmed a shitty low-budget movie near and in a town I lived in, in Iowa. I do have a friend who worked in movies, he met all kinds of famous people. His favorite person was Danny Trejo. His least favorite was Edward Norton. Apparently Ed accused him of stealing a laptop.
I did see Weird Al in concert. I’m counting that.
My celeb moment was meeting and shaking Zakk Wylde’s hand. It was so fucking cool. I have a picture of it. I also went to a Michael Jordan celebrity gold tournament and met about 50 celebs. Reggie Jackson, Rod Woodson, Hootie and the Blowfish, Lou Holtz, Rocket Ismael, Stuart Scott, fucking Shaft. Reggie Jackson is the biggest asshole on the face of the planet. So is Rod Woodson.
There’s also the time I shagged Jennifer Aniston. But that doesn’t really count because we never talked.
@ Mucker:
Yeah, no, that definitely doesn’t count. How much did she pay you?
OT but…
Tebow to the Jets is done…again.
http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/story/_/id/7720305/new-york-jets-denver-broncos-complete-tim-tebow-trade-second-time
Utterly fucking amazing turn of events. Bravo, Mr. Elway, bravo.
@ josh:
(dying laughing) Not enough.
Zakk Wylde a nice guy? I read this one interview with him and he came across like a bit of an ass, but then again, he might have just been annoyed at the interviewer. Some of those guitar guys really hate guitar magazines.
I once got busy in a Burger King bathroom.
PFD wrote:
After Thomas’ handling of the situation around Weber this year, why would the hottest coach in the country want the Illinois job? Even absent that, the true ‘home run’ hires probably wouldn’t want the job — high expectations, average facilities, the perception that it’s not a top-tier job potentially damaging your reputation — but the situation there is so toxic right now I’m not sure they’ll land anyone particularly inspiring.
I think the best-case scenario is that they get a mid-major coach who’s either green or has had their star dim a bit. Absent the negativity around the program and the asshole you’d be working for, it’s a decent situation…at the very least, the cupboard is full. But I don’t envy whoever does take the job.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
How much did he pay you?
@ josh:
How much is a Whopper?
@ josh:
You’ll have to look at your checkbook register. It bounced, BTW.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Are you implying that you had sex in a Burger King restroom with some man who writes invalid checks on josh’s bank account?
@ GBTS:
No, I sold him a fake watch.
That I had put in my ass for safekeeping.
My celeb story is when I literally bumped into Rod Blagojevich in the concourse of Wrigley before one of the 2003 playoff games. I was going one way and all of a sudden a dude in a suit and a Cubs hat bumps my shoulder. I look up and it’s Rod. He smiled apologetically headed on his way. True story.
I also was on the same Southwest flight with Marv Levy once.
@ josh:
Yeah he was. He loves his fans. He seems really straight forward. If he doesn’t like something he tells you. But he did a meet and greet in Finland and it was for 1 hour but there was a line with about 1,000 people waiting for him and he stayed until each fan got an autograph and pic. He was really cool with me. He said what’s up, shook my hand, gave a sweet pic and I had him sign a Guitar World mag with him and Dime on the cover and he was talking about Dime. This was before Dime’s death.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Caveat venditor
@ Mucker:
Cool. I think in that interview he was getting annoyed because the solo they were asking about was just a straight pentatonic thing, and he was like “just listen to the record, you’ll figure it out in two seconds.”
@ josh:
Same to you.
I had a drink with Les Claypool back in 1995 or 1996 in Iowa City. His wife (at the time anyway) was from Iowa City.
@ mb21:
New post http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/projecting-the-2012-cubs-chris-volstad.html