Cuban outfielder update
The Cubs are apparently no longer in on Cespedes, according to Joe Frisaro. He and KG have heard from sources that the Cubs are making a "big, big push" for 19-year old Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler. According to Frisaro the Cubs are willing to spend $27.5m, though it is unknown over how many years.
Here's BA's report of Soler from a month or so ago, helpfully linked by Pezcore:
He's a 19-year-old athlete with five-tool potential. Six-foot-3 and 205 pounds, Soler has explosive bat speed and power potential. He also has plus speed and arm strength and profiles as a classic right fielder, though he runs well enough to play center. Because of his youth, he'll need some time to develop, but he should be worth the wait.
As for the 2012 Top 100 Prospects list, Soler is somewhat similar to Royals outfielder Bubba Starling, the fifth overall pick in the 2011 draft. Starling has the advantages of being more athletic and a better bet to stay in center field. I'd see both of them sitting in the 11-20 range on our next Top 100.
Soler is four years younger and more talented than Leonys Martin, another Cuban outfielder who signed a $15.6 million major league contract with the Rangers in April. Once Soler is cleared to sign with a major league team, he's expected to top Martin's deal.
News in Z
Per Buster Olney, apparently Z has been clocked at 94-95 mph this winter. No word on whether he is in the best shape of his life, or whether that 95 mph reading came while Z was driving his car.
Is there a Cubs game today?
No.
Player I wish was around to give quotes to spice up this eventless season.
Gronkowski is a grown man who’s allowed to do whatever he feels like doing. Just because you’re grieving as a New England fan, doesn’t mean all the players should be sitting in a hotel conference room alternating between crying and devising a plan to get Tim Tebow and his super magic in a trade.
also:
The hats: Really scraping the bottom of the barrel here, but I think this is the most common complaint. MLB issues these spring training hats that are pretty universally hated. They usually have a silly line(s) on them so they’re different from the regular season hats, and the material feels like a wet dish rag if you sweat in them (which you will). Every day that you put them on, you get the same sad feeling Ralphie got in A Christmas Story when he’s wearing the footed pajamas.
(h/t to Mish and Tango)
Xanatos Gambit of the weekend
I seriously am half-wondering if Thoyer signed him [Concepcion] on behalf of some Japanese team or something who has a trade chip they’re after, thus rendering the MLB options and everything meaningless. That rule 5 thing they did flipping some random to the Monterrey Sultanas was so weird that I keep thinking that some equal and opposite weird thing is going to have to happen later that will make sense of it.
Has the Theo compensation been decided yet?
Speaking of The Simpsons
Apparently the Grammy awards were last night. I've never been a big fan of awards events but The Simpsons long ago cemented my opinion as to the relative worth of the Grammys.
Z was able to hit the mid-90′s on occasion in his last years with the Cubs, as well. He’s one of those pitchers who has a lot of range in his fastball velocity (see his velocity chart: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=305&position=P&pitch=FA). I’m skeptical that his fastball sits at much above 90 this year, but we’ll see.
KG’s Top 101, free: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16020
Jackson – 44
Baez – 66
Rizzo – 75
Also says Concepcion was eligible but clearly not a Top 101.
In honor of OVBlog’s imminent first anniversary:
I demand compensation for every use of the sisco facepalm on this site!
Also, Brandon McCarthy is awesome. Its like MB somehow took posession of a players body and now that player hates everything. (dying laughing)
ive been catching up with new acb early this morning and I saw a few people asking about the origin of many of the acb/ovblog memes.
I still have that acb glossary I put together a few years back with most of the old memes. I remember pretty much all the yellonisms and their origin. If you want me to whip something up for the newer members Id be willing to do it. Things like how we figured out Al’s full first name…. (dying laughing). Anyone remember where that poem was published?
@ fonteYES:
Reuschel on down to this link FY
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1088589/3/index.htm
FY —> ACB/OV Historian.
@ Suburban kid
(dying laughing) alvin is such a weird little man.
@ GBTS:
The John Thorn of unrediscredited Cubs blogs.
@ Suburban kid:
(dying laughing)
@ Suburban kid:
WTF? (dying laughing)
Suburban kid wrote:
I’m speechless. That has to be the dumbest fucking thing I’ve every read. Has anybody ever posted that on BCB? Alvin is a strange man.
FY, I wouldn’t mind seeing you whip something up regarding the origins of all the memes and all the Yellonisms.
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fonteYES wrote:
Mucker wrote:
Download | Convert YouTube to MP3
/close enough’d
Really, this was unnecessary. Don’t you have your own blog for thinly veiled penis jokes?
@ Aisle424:
Are there really enough jokes about thinly veiled penises to populate an entire blog?
@ Aisle424:
Is a thinly veiled penis like a partial circumcision?
@ AndCounting:
Be careful AC, that sounds like a challenge.
This thread will bring back the porn ads in no time.
There are 9 Padres prospects on KG’s list, and it would have been 10 if the Cubs hadn’t traded for Rizzo. That certainly makes me feel even better about the Hoyer/McLeod poaching.
Nothing crazy insightful, but an NPR article on “Moneyball”, Pitt and Beane.
http://www.npr.org/2012/02/13/146576144/brad-pitt-making-moneyball-and-being-billy-beane
@ Berselius:
They did pretty damn well in that trade. Rizzo for Cashner? I can’t even believe the Padres made that deal.
@ Berselius:
Agreed. I am also so pumped that we might be getting Soler. (It seems inevitable at this point)
I liked him more than Cespedes anyways
@ mb21:
It made some sense until the Padres announced that Cashner would be a reliever. Their trade for Yonder Alonso when they had Rizzo was just as confusing, if not even more so.
@ bubblesdachimp:
Yeah, I like Soler a little better too, but the main reason is that Cespedes probably wouldn’t be around/in his prime the next time the Cubs are good anyway.
@ Mish:
Wife and I just watched Moneyball last night. Really enjoyed it. She was sad that the A’s lost (dying laughing)
@ WaLi:
Now she knows how Oakland feels.
@ Berselius:
Cashner is a reliever at this point. They could have tried him as a starter, but it probably would have been disastrous.
@ Berselius:
Yea consider e non interested in a 26 year old “prospect”
@ WaLi:
You should probably have put spoiler tags for that. (dying laughing)
I liked the movie quite a but but I don’t think it’s that much more than just a really good movie. It’s not one of those cinematic experiences I’m going to recall for the rest of my life or whatever.
Per Tim Brown on Yahoo:
Cespedes —–> A’s
TBrownYahoo: Source: Yoenis Cespedes has agreed to terms with the Oakland A’s.”
4 years, $36 million
Mish wrote:
Wow, that came out of nowhere
Mystery team strikes again.
We better get Soler..
@ Berselius:
Brad Pitt sure knows what he’s doing.
Mish wrote:
I’m amazed Brad Pitt found the time to make the deal when he wasn’t writing Moneyball.
Is soler a free agent yet?
Is it possible we dont know?
4 and 36 is less than I thought it would take
im really surprised its not Miami. That almost made too much sense.
Next we’ll find out that the Epstein compensation will be resolved by sending Tim Wilken to the Monterrey Sultanas
i am going to be real mad if we dont get soler
That was surprising. I guess Little Cuba alone wasn’t enough of a draw. Maybe if they had finished the spinning fish fireworks monstrosity, things would have been different.
Part of the contract is that Cespedes will be a FA after it’s over.
@ Berselius:
As opposed to shipping him immediately back to Cuba?
Ben Badler @BenBadler Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Cespedes to the A’s. Same representatives that sold them Michael Ynoa for $4.25 million.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Kevin Goldstein @Kevin_Goldstein Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Cespedes’agent was asking teams for 10 years or four with free agency. Nobody was doing the former, and many wanted 5/6 years.
that is bananas
everyone who missed on Cespedes will now go after Soler. Maybe we get him but I wouldn’t be surprised if we dont
@ bubblesdachimp:
That’s a lot of confidence for a guy who will be 30 at the end of his contract.
Facepalm
The gist of the Oakland situation is that with Billy Beane getting an extension and Bud Selig (allegedly) going to help resolve the stadium situation with the A’s possibly moving to San Jose, they will come into money soon after moving out from under the Giants’ shadow. And since the team kind of sucks and they haven’t actually spent all that much on free agency, might as well give it a shot.
josh wrote:
He’d still fall under the reserve clause at the end of the deal.
@ bubblesdachimp:
You asked earlier if he was a free agent yet and the answer is no, but why would you be upset? I literally couldn’t care less if they get Soler or not. For the kind of money berselius mentioned I’d rather not. After Soler and Concepcion both fail after being paid $35 million total the media and fans will be ready to hang Thoyer from the Wrigley scoreboard.
@ dylanj:
Maybe maybe not. In the end he isnt a big league player rightnow that will command insane money. Maybe teams dont want to pay that much for a kid who isnt close to big leagues
@ mb21:
I would be upset becasue the scouting reports say the kid is going to hit baseball a really long way and be a good player.
Not my money so i dont care
@ bubblesdachimp:
It’s not your money, but it’s money your favorite team will be unable to spend later on. I’d much rather invest $30 fucking million in a guy who has actually played at the MLB level as opposed to a league equal to A ball.
@ mb21:
I’d say get him if they can get a reasonable deal. If the bidding drives up the cost, I don’t see any reason to get crazy about him.
@ mb21:
Yeah, I thought Soler was supposed to be significantly cheaper. If the Cubs could get him for what I perceive to be “significantly cheaper” I’m all for that. I don’t think the rumored $27.5MM or whatever it was that Soler is commanding is “significantly cheaper” though. It sounds more like silly money.
Rice Cube wrote:
From BA at the top of the post
@ josh:
Agreed. If you can sign him for something like $7-10 million, go for it. Anything more than that just let some other team have him.
Rice Cube wrote:
I agree. But if $27.5 million gets the Cubs 8 years of team control, that sounds like a pretty decent deal. Regarding Cespedes, why would the A’s sign him? I don’t see the Rangers or Angels being easy to beat in the next 4 years in that division. Seems pretty silly to me. But I don’t really know how close the A’s are so maybe I should just shut my big yapper.
@ Berselius:
Do you recall how many years the Martin contract was for?
well, i guess paying a 19 year old about twice what Strasburg got is the Cubs way?
although if we get him it will just make our minor league watches more compelling. I’m excited for a full year of Vogelbach, Baez & Maples
@ Mucker:
If the money is defrayed over more years it probably won’t hurt as much. Still seems like quite a chunk of change though for a prospect.
The A’s probably won’t contend until Cespedes’ contract is up, but folks who believe Billy Beane is magic may disagree with me.
dylanj wrote:
I don’t see any value in comparing international signings to what draft picks get. Drafted players are at an enormous disadvantage because if they don’t sign they have to wait another year, and then they’re still over the barrel of negotiating with one team.
@ Mucker:
The A’s have a lot of young talent, and the Angels are an old team, so they maybe thinking in a year or two they can contend against the Rangers.
@ dylanj:
And Reggie Golden. Kid turned it on kinda at the end. I am excited for all the kids.
hey its not my cash, and if we have this in the budget then go for it. I’d rather see the Cubs announce an extension with Castro than blow it on Soler though.
Rice Cube wrote:
It’s definitely a lot of money for a prospect. I’m wondering what his MLB comp is? Is he more of an Ellsbury type player or is he a Carlos Gomez type? If the scouts really think he’s the next Steve Nebraska, then the Cubs should sign him. (dying laughing)
The A’s aren’t very good and pretty clearly the 3rd best team in that division behind the Angels and Rangers, but their pitching staff is really good (I think (dying laughing)). Good enough to maybe stay relevant in the division for most of the season, maybe. They don’t have much in terms of impact position players, now or in the near-term, and can’t afford to buy players like Reyes or Pujols on the market. So I’m thinking they think Cespedes can bring some offense in the near term.
DeVoss is another I liked from Boise last year. +.400 OBP is a good thing. Good speed too.
Gretzky, Rock Shoulders, Dunston Jr, seeing if McNutt can rebound, Jackson in AAA. There’s a lot more compelling stuff in the minors than the bigs this year.
Berselius wrote:
So I guess you’d have to take around the midpoint if you consider 1) what he’d cost as a prospect and 2) what he’d cost as a free agent…
@ Mucker:
But what is the quality of those years of club control? That’s the whole problem with giving someone like this that kind of money. At least with Cespedes you already know he’s in his prime. You can better evaluate him than you can someone as young as Soler. I don’t like the Cespedes contract at all. I’d have given him no more than $10-15 million and there’s no way I’d have agreed to allow him to become a free agent after 4 years.
I think Ryan Theriot at $27.5 million is a better investment and I think that would be insane.
and i think it sends a bad signal if we give a 19 year old 27 million and pay league min or close to for Castro when he has produced at the big league level for 2 years in a row.
dylanj wrote:
Cubs prospects in general have nowhere to go but up after how disastrous last season was across the system.
@ mb21:
I wonder if Beane has the buyer’s remorse yet. He could have gotten caught up in the bidding, and the fact that his team was the only one willing to take on the ridiculous conditions.
dylanj wrote:
I think Castro knows how the system works.
dylanj wrote:
It’s not your money in the same way that some of the contracts now handcuffing the Cubs isn’t your money. The question, as I see it anyway, is this: is there a better way to spend $27 million? Considering how frequently prospects fail (almost all of them), it’s difficult to argue that there isn’t a better way to spend that same money. I’d rather the Cubs blow an extra $15 million the draft next year than they’re allowed. That would cost the same amount of money it sounds like it will cost to get Soler.
it was a disaster in the sense that McNutt went a million steps backwards and nobody really broke out from the 2010-past classes. But the 2011 class was talent rich and a few guys in the low minors did well. Its going to be an interesting year.
@ dylanj:
Yeah, the minor leagues are easily going to be more entertaining than the minor league team playing in Chicago. I’m kind of hoping Brett Jackson makes the team out of spring training.
16 or 17 of Sickels top 20 from last year took steps back in 2011. It was the most disastrous year for the Cubs minor leagues since I’ve been closely following them (about a decade). I’m not as excited about the guys in the low minors as a lot of you are. I’ve seen way too many prospects start out well and then turn to shit. Let me know when they get to High A or AA. (dying laughing)
Best teams at building through the draft:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/building-through-the-draft-best-of-the-best/
Rice Cube wrote:
I don’t think it’s fair to say “built through the draft” unless you also include contributions of players acquired in trade for guys you drafted as well.
mb21 wrote:
mmmm no.
@ Berselius:
I don’t think this article went into that much depth, unfortunately.
This is the blurb in the CBA summary that I think gives some leeway for the clubs who want to take a financial hit to secure a draftee. They could potentially spend 5% over slot, pay the tax, and still keep their draft picks. I think the overslot penalty only takes into account the first ten rounds in the draft. I think this is where the Cubs will use some of their wiggle room to get guys to sign without forfeiting future picks.
Public Service Announcement:
mb21 wrote:
What is his ceiling? If the Cubs believe he’s got the tools to be a very good MLBer, then sign the guy. We all know prospects fail all the time and Soler is no different. But it sounds like other teams are going to be bidding for his services as well. So I’m sure the Cubs are going to go hard after him but they’ll probably back off if the contract gets too expensive. But maybe Ticketts said, “Hey, go get that other Cuban guy” and told them they have $27.5 million to play with. Either way, if he turns out to be a bust, the Cubs have wasted a lot more money on worse.
The Cubs have wasted money on worse for sure, but the last thing I want this new front office to do is wasting money. Isn’t that the primary reason we wanted Jim Hendry gone? Too much money wasted? If you really like someone of Soler’s talent, overspend in next year’s draft on a player whose contract is limited. You could get two next June for the price of one right now.
I just want the team to spend money wisely. I just don’t see how investing nearly $30 million on this guy is a wise investment. The Cubs have the money. It’s not mine. I get all that, but Jim Hendry and his staff could have made these decisions. We didn’t need to give up a prospect or two to get Theo if we’re good with these types of decisions. We should have just kept the prospect and promoted Randy Bush. Or kept Jim Hendry.
I don’t believe Thoyer is crazy enough to invest that kind of money in Soler. My guess is they back out if it goes over $12 million or so. At least I hope they do.
@ mb21:
Yeah I hear what you’re saying. I guess the thought of watching this team this year makes me ill and I’m looking for the Cubs to build a great farm system. Does anybody think BJax makes the team out of camp? I’m debating whether or not to buy mlb.tv this year but don’t really want to unless BJax makes the team. Gives me something to look forward to.
They say the Cuban league is equivalent to A or AA, then what is the dominican league that all the stud players come from equivalent to? Because the D.R. has produced some great ballplayers so where did they get so good?
Well, this is disturbing: http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/horrible-reactions-to-chris-brown-at-the-grammys
ACT wrote:
WOW!! I don’t even know what to say about that. Unreal.
@ Mucker:
Isn’t that due in part to the training facilities that MLB teams have set up? There’s no equivalent thing in Cuba because of all the trade embargos or whatever.
@ Mucker:
Why don’t you just get MLB.tv to watch baseball that’s actually good? (dying laughing)
Like the AL East, or the Phillies.
I think they will try their best to keep Brett Jackson in the minors until June, but I think he’s a big-leaguer by then, if not before. If he tears the cover off the ball in spring training, even though they shouldn’t put too much stock in those stats, I think it’d be hard to tell him to go to Iowa to start the season.
I like the MLB audio. I can’t watch the Cubs on MLB.tv anyway, thanks to blackouts.
@ josh:
No WGN or CSN-Chicago down at Champaign?
@ Mucker:
I’ve heard it’s the equivalent of somewhere between Low A and High A. The only place I’ve seen AA is here when DJ said it recently. I’ve even seen some research that suggests it’s the equivalent of short-season A ball, which is were Concepcion probably begins next year.
The Dominican Winter League is tough to figure out. There are many MLB players who play in that league. Teams send young players and/or players in the high minors. It’s about the equivalent of AA baseball. However, the DSL (summer league), is probably no better than rookie league (Arizona Summer League).
well if the Cubs have internal valuations that give Soler a higher than 27 mill value then go for it. Its the last year before the cap, Soler has been comped to Bubba Starling and seems a consensus top 20 talent.
As long as they dont make him a free agent after 4 years (dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
I get WGN, but that only accounts for like 10 games anymore, if you only count games I can actually watch (i.e., after work). I’ve never wanted to get the upgrade to get CSN because I just don’t watch enough TV to justify it. Plus, again, I can only watch after work games, anyway. I could watch them at work on the internet, if I had MLB.tv and it wasn’t blacked out.
@ mb21:
Plus, there were some early successes out of the Dominican, like Clemente, before the hype. There’s never been a Cuban Clemente, unless you count Canseco and Palmeiro, but I think both of them left Cuba before high school.
@ josh:
I feel like this shouldn’t be how MLB treats its best customers.
Rice Cube wrote:
Champaign was actually nice because we got a fair amount of Cardinals games down there on top of the Sox and Cubs games.
@ Mish:
Boo!
@ Mish:
I recall getting a lot of A’s and Giants games on the local channels in the early 2000s when both teams were actually really good. That was loads of fun.
I do occasionally watch the White Sox, if there’s nothing else on. Otherwise, I just read a book.
Rice Cube wrote:
Well I’m actually going to watch a lot of Nats games this year because I live in that area. I don’t really watch other teams unless a top prospect is debuting or it’s on ESPN or Fox. MLB’s blackout rules are fucking retarded.
@ josh:
I don’t dislike the White Sox, but if I’m watching them its usually because they are playing an AL team worth watching. (dying laughing)
Mucker wrote:
I can’t argue with you today.
I think the mystery Cub on the billboard AC saw is the iconic Mr. Sveum. (He mentioned it on our WTF podcast on Friday).
mb21 wrote:
With the Cubs new D.R. facility, how is that going to work? Do players only get to work out there if they are signed by the Cubs or want to sign with the Cubs? Or is it going to be open to any player? Anybody know?
@ Mish:
I only watch them if I’m bored, or just REALLY need a baseball fix. I’ve gone to a couple games, but that was more because of lower ticket prices, and because I lived in Bridgeport.
@ Mucker:
I think they have to do it that way because of television rights. They basically charge like WGN a shit ton of money to get to carry they games, so it’s not really fair to have a cheaper, better delivery system competing against them. It would be a dick move, in a way, to not black out. But it is frustrating.
As far as determining the value of a prospect’s ceiling versus his worth to sign, there are so many vagaries, but they must calculate some sort of percentage likelihood of success and multiply by their best projection of his future production and come up with a number that way.
Maybe they have determined that his skill set projects him to be worth 12 WAR over the course of a 4 year contract if things go as we hope, but they also calculate there is a ~10% chance he accomplishes that so they pay him the value of about 1.2 WAR (~$7M) or a bit less since the kid is getting security without accomplishing anything yet. With someone like Soler, they could be projecting he ends up worth 20+ WAR if he’s as awesome as they think, and they also think he is solid enough fundamentally that they think he has a 20% chance of success, so now you’re looking at paying for about 4WAR or around $20M for his services. (I am making up numbers here, but it illustrates how easily value can get pushed up if you think a guy is awesome and you think his likelihood of actually reaching his potential is anywhere in the ballpark of not totally shitty odds.)
It gets tricky since there is so little to project with accuracy, so you have to decide how ballsy you want to be with the information your scouts are giving you.
The Cubs internal evaluation doesn’t much matter. The reason is fairly simple. The Angels internal valuation for Prince Fielder was $200+ million. The Cubs internal valuation for John Grabow was $7 million over 2 years. The Giants internal valuation for Barry Zito was $1 billion per month. The Cubs have always signed players to contracts that closely resembled their own internal evaluations. They did during the MacPhail era, Hendry era and will during the Thoyer era. That’s one thing that hasn’t changed and it’s the same for all 30 teams. If we’re only going to criticize contracts that exceed the Cubs internal valuations we’re going to be very happy people (just as we’ve been for the last 30 years). We may as well shut down all the Cubs blogs.
He’s a consensus top 20 talent. Those guys are available in the draft for considerably less. The top talent in the DR and Venezuela cost 10 times less than the $27.5 million rumored. The Cubs could acquire more talent than Soler if they were willing to spend an additional $30 million in the draft next year (some of which would be the penalty of course).
Mucker wrote:
This.
mb21 wrote:
It’s not like they’re losing a draft pick by signing Soler. It’s also not like there are a huge pool of tough signs in the draft that the Cubs can shell out for…and given the new CBA other teams might be more willing to shell out for as well. I get what you’re saying about how much Soler should be valued but comparing to the draft is apples and oranges. You’ve been saying for years that the Cubs need to recognize top talent in Latin America and go get it. This is what they are trying to do, while they still can.
@ Aisle424:
I’m not sure there’s as much science in it as you think. I’m guessing it’s as simple as Team X being willing to pay $25 million and the Cubs really like him so they may be willing to pay $27 million.
All I really know is this: if they signed him for that amount of money and he’s a bust, that contract is going to help bury this front office. We’ve seen how outraged the media and fans are at the $10 million given to Samardzija. Imagine wasting 3 times that. The media and fans called the Milton Bradley contract HUGE. That helped bury Hendry. That was $27 million and the Cubs are more likely to get more out of that contract than they’ll ever get for Soler (or any prospect his age).
I’d much rather the Cubs go $15 million over slot in next year’s draft than acquire this guy. It would cost them $30 million in doing so, which is about the same as the rumor posted in this thread.
mb21 wrote:
Yes, but as someone (Fang, I think?) mentioned yesterday, I have more faith in whatever internal valuations the Cubs are currently doing over the past regimes. There will always be gamesmanship involved in this stuff as well. Maybe they think the Cardinals are the other main bidder and it is worth the extra few million to keep him away from them. Who knows?
It’s hard to be critical of their decisions so far since their track record in the past has been pretty good and they don’t seem to be changing their methods now that they are on Chicago. But maybe Ricketts is saying go ahead and overspend because it’s the last chance we have under the old rules, so fuck it and go for it, which would be disappointing. Sadly, we get no insight from those with access so it is impossible to know what they were thinking.
i dont think Ricketts is going to fire if Soler doesnt pan out. Hendry got a long long time in GM years. He didnt fail because of a few bad deals and then a rash firing.
@ Berselius:
When I was talking about top talent I was thinking more along the lines of the 16 year olds who you can sign for $1.5 million.
I don’t agree that comparing it to the draft is apples and oranges.There are differences to account for, but it’s not night and day. More talented Japanese players have come to the US and gotten considerably less than this.
@ mb21:
If Thoyer are considering whether a signing like this will “bury” them, they might as well resign now. Next year’s likely 70-win season will go a lot farther towards turning fan sentiment against them anyway than shelling out for a player 95% of Cubs fans don’t even know about.
mb21 wrote:
How many were signed at 19, or were rated as top-20 prospects by evaluators?
@ dylanj:
Sorry if I implied that it would be the sole reason he’d get fired. I didn’t mean to imply that. What I meant is that it will help bury this front office. It will be one huge blunder that should never have happened. It will be one example used over and over and over about how not another GM in baseball history would have given that kind of money to a player like that.
@ Berselius:
None were prospects, but many were better than this guy. The average top pick in the draft is worth 15 WAR over a 10 year career. The Japanese players teams have signed have expected more contribution than that and they’ve expected it immediately.
@ Berselius:
Yeah, between the sucky seasons over the next 5 years and a contract like this, there’s little doubt they’ll be despised, which is depressing when you consider how many people would have had Theo’s babies the day he was hired. (dying laughing)
@ Aisle424:
(dying laughing)
I admire your individualism, berselius
mb21 wrote:
With the new CBA the Cubs aren’t going to be able to pour as much into the draft as they wanted. Perhaps they have decided to instead pour the 6-year average of excess into one of the final players remaining that isn’t limited by the CBA. 27.5 over what is probably 6 years comes out to just over 4M. That doesn’t even buy 1WAR per season let alone much on the FA market that is going to help them in the next 5 years. So why not give it to a kid that has a high ceiling with what sounds like a high floor as well.
The Japanese players that have gotten less than Soler and Cespedes have turned out to be fairly horrible. There are a few exceptions but not many.
@ JMan:
On the other hand, what’s the precedent for Cuban talent? At least Japan has had one or two really good people.
Mucker wrote:
When I went to school in Iowa, the Cubs/White Sox/Royals/Cardinals/Brewers/Twins were blacked out on MLB.tv.
@ JMan:
Yeah, but I don’t want two underdeveloped nineteen year olds on the 40-man with both needing to make the ML level by year 5. We know very little about Soler other than the scouting reports. He reminds me of listening to people rave about Darco Millicic, about ‘tools’ and ‘upside’ but never quite seeing it all on the court. We got to see Concepcion play in the Cuban League, where he was rookie of the year. We got to see most of those Japanese players play in the competitive leagues in Japan.
We got to see the baseball equivalent, so far, of Soler posting up chairs. Yeah, posting up chairs looks good to a scout, but what does it mean in terms of tangible assets? True, Concepcion is the definition of raw, but the Cubs have zero depth in the pitching department. Its more justifiable because he’s not only cheaper but the Cubs need Starting Pitching depth.
We have two legitimate starting outfield prospects in the minors– Jackson and Scuzzur — plus two fringe starters ready for the major league level — Campana and Sappelt — and two veterns looking to rejuvanate their careers in the OF — DeJesus and LaHair. Plus, we have godawful Alfonso Soriano trying to get playing time in LF and on payroll for 3 years.
Do the Cubs really need more outfielders? I’d almost be tempted to pull a Buster Posey on Jorge Soler and start training him behind the plate.
This guy saw Heyman’s awful Rick Reilly article from last week and tries to one-up him by bringing Whitney Houston into the mix.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2012/02/13/what-josh-hamilton-and-the-texas-rangers-can-learn-from-whitney-houstons-passing/
If the Cubs did sign Soler they’d have 3 guys on the 40-man roster who don’t belong it (Sczcur, Concepcion and Soler). It won’t be long before the Cubs have to DFA Starlin Castro to make room for an 18 year old on the 40-man roster. (dying laughing)
mb21 wrote:
I just looked at the 40-man to look for guys that the Cubs could get rid of without losing much (Sonnanstine, Sappelt) and was surprised to see that Brett Jackson isn’t on it.
@ Berselius:
He didn’t need to be protected from the Rule 5 yet so he’ll probably be added whenever he gets called up to the big leagues.
Berselius wrote:
I’m more worried about these guys being brought up too early.
@ Berselius:
*Fozzie facepalm gif*
Just putting this out there…for SK, the Cubs are denying a move to the Cell in 2013 should Wrigley need a makeover.
http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/Whither-the-2013-Cubs-139247408.html
http://blogs.amctv.com/photo-galleries/breaking-bad-season-4-behind-the-scenes-photos/ep-1-costabile.php
(Breaking Bad spoilers)
I know there are some Kevin Smith fans around here so there’s this: http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/whats-alan-watching/posts/interview-kevin-smith-talks-comic-book-men
@ Rice Cube:
(dying laughing) I didn’t even know they were talking about that.
@ mb21:
It’s a logical option if they really do plan to gut Wrigley and renovate it thoroughly.
Rice Cube wrote:
You lost me.
@ GBTS:
Are we still talking about the Cubs @ the Cell?
Unless Jerry Reinsdorf flat out refuses to let the Cubs in, the Cell is the closest MLB facility so I don’t see why that wouldn’t be a viable option for the Cubs while Wrigley Field gets a makeover.
@ Rice Cube:
I meant the Cubs and the term “logical option.”
GBTS wrote:
Yeah, that’s ridiculous. I live in the DC area and when I got DirecTv like 5 years ago, I ordered Comcast Chicago thinking between that and WGN, I would be able to see most Cubs games. Nope. They blacked out the Cubs on Comcast and the only way I could watch would be to buy Extra Innings or MLB.tv. I was pissed.
@ GBTS:
You and I may not always agree, but on this, we do.
@ Aisle424:
http://www.isringostillalive.com
I’ve had MLB Extra Innings every year since 2003 with the exception of one year when I got MLB.tv. I love being able to watch baseball if I’m up late. I always got it for the Cubs though. Even when the Cubs were bad before I used to watch them every chance I could, but the last 2 years I’ve probably only watched them 60 or 80 times. I figured there was no reason I’d be watching this team any more this year so I contacted my cable subscriber recently and told them not to renew MLB EI this year. I can watch 30 or so games that are on WGN and paying that much money just to watch some baseball late isn’t worth it.
If any of you guys have Showtime, the Marlins are up for Season Two of “The Franchise” and they’re not going to censor Ozzie (dying laughing)
MLBTR says the Cubs are interested in Ramon Ortiz.
@ JMan:
This has been my line of thinking on this whole thing as well, and I think that the Oakland/Cespedes move is pretty telling. At the very least, the more forward-thinking orgs seem to be of the mind that the price of young talent is going to rise significantly due to the new CBA, and that’s changed the thinking for a lot of folks.
I won’t completely discount the issues that have been brought up by some folks around here, but if you’re looking for a reasoning behind these deals, IMO it’s most likely related to a macro trend in valuation and not any particular affection for the guys who are being brought in.
@ uncle dave:
I think that’s a good point.
@ uncle dave:
The cost for young players will go down since MLB is limiting what teams can spend. I think this is an odd year with 2 highly talented Cuban players and another one who supposedly has potential (Concepcion). I think since so much attention was initially paid to Cespedes it led to increased salaries for the other two.
do we know for sure that Soler is going to require a 40-man spot? The Conception and Cespedes deals are telling in that the Cubs will almost NEED to give him that spot but they might be willing to pay him more if he is willing to take the traditional deal and not need it…
@ JMan:
We said the same thing about Concepcion. Throw him a few more million and keep him off the 40-man roster. The Cubs weren’t interested or Concepcion demanded it. I’d be very surprised if Soler doesn’t also get a spot on the roster.
Trib reporting a 3-4 year deal worth 27 mill. No way we let that kid walk after 4 years. He wont even be done with AAA by then
MD- if the Cubs sign Soler is he a free agent? Or do they get the full 6 years of club control?
LOHO says a source told them the Cubs just signed Soler.
its on the Trib site. KG has basically confirmed. Looks like a done deal
@ Rice Cube:
not sure how they can sign him until he becomes a citizen of DR and then an actual IFA. I guess that could have all happened quickly though.
@ dylanj:
Depends. Cespedes had it worked into his contract that he was a free agent after 4 years. Concepcion did not. So the Cubs have 4 options with Concepcion and he’s not eligible for free agency until he has 6 years of MLB service time. I would assume the same is true for Soler.
yeah, that makes more sense. And Nate, Soler isnt a FA yet but they can still strike a deal. Hechavarria did that a few years back.
Kevin Goldstein @Kevin_Goldstein Close
Folks, the four year deal for Soler is DIFFERENT from the Cespedes deal. Service time won’t start until big leagues, NOT a FA after the 4.
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0214-cubs-chicago–20120214,0,5338208.story
Van Dyck says that Soler can still be signed but I don’t know if that’s true or if he’s talking out of his ass.
I don’t know how to work the fucking quotebox, obviously
deleted
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/cubs-sign-jorge-soler.html
Rice Cube wrote:
weird article. says he’s expected to sign, but doesn’t even cite any unnamed sources. the only thing he cites is the 27.5 rumor from elsewhere
Cubs will fuck this up by signing a player they cant sign and then losing their first round pick.
Book it