According to Dave Kaplan, the Cubs are working on a long-term contract with Starlin Castro.
With the focus of the Cubs management team of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer clearly on a long term plan of overhauling the Cubs organization, nearly every move they have made since taking control of the team has been with a vision towards the future.
With that approach in mind, two industry sources who have represented several MLB players over the past decade confirmed to me tonight that the Cubs are working on a long term deal for star shortstop Starlin Castro.
The deal, which could be six or more years in length, is expected to be finalized before the end of the 2012 season and would not only buy out the remaining arbitration years that Castro has, but at least two years of free agency which he will reach after the 2016 season.
Castro enters next year being eligible for arbitration for the first time. Since he’ll be a super two he’ll have 4 years of arbitration before he can reach free agency. It’s unlikely any contract would be shorter than 5 years so 6 years or longer makes a lot of sense. What might it cost the Cubs to sign Castro that long?
I’m on my iPad at the moment so I’m not going to break out the spreadsheet or consult the projections. I want to work through this “out loud” and get your thoughts.
Let’s start with a 3-WAR projection in 2013 and increase it by .5 each year for 4 years and then decrease it by .5 the final 2 years. That’s 22.5 WAR.
We’ll star the win value at $5.5 million and increase it by $0.5 million each year.
2013: 3 WAR, $5.5 million/W, $16.5 million $WAR
2014: 3.5 WAR, $6 million/W, $19.5 million $WAR
2015: 4.0 WAR $6.5 million/W, $26 million $WAR
2016: 4.5 WAR, $7 million/W, $31.5 million $WAR
2017: 4.0 WAR, $7.5 million/W, $30 million $WAR
2018: 3.5 WAR, $8 million/W, $26 million $WAR
That’s a total of $149.5 million. That’s what we’d be looking at if he was a free agent, but Castro is 4+ years away from that. In arbitration salaries he’s probably looking at something like $3 million next year followed by $6 million, $10 million and $15 million. If the Cubs went year to year they’d probably pay around $34 million over the next 4 years and Castro would then enter free agency worth $56 million over the first year years after free agency. Add it up and get $90 million.
The Cubs won’t be paying full price. The entire point of taking the risk of signing a pre-arbitration or free agency player is to get them at a discount. If the Cubs have to pay $90 million they’ll just go year to year. How much of a discount? I’m not really sure, but I wouldn’t go 6 years unless you get at least a 30% discount. Teams already get a 10% discount on contracts longer than 3 years. A 30% discount would be 6-years and $63 million.
Personally, I’d shoot for somewhere between 30% and 40% off so take another $5 million off and you get $58 million over 6 years. Castro is coming off the worst offensive season in his career so I might even be tempted to reduce it further.
What do you guys think?
I was going by the MLBTR article which suggested $20MM for the four arb years plus $12MM or so for each free agent year. That’d be around $44MM. I reduced it to $40MM because he’s been sucking with the bat but I expect him to figure it out later on. My number is probably way too low. I think something between $50-55MM sounds more realistic.
@ Rice Cube:
May not be low at all. I think increasing Castro’s WAR by .5 each year is lazy, but that’s all I was able to do at the moment. Realistically it’s probably closer to .3 per year for someone like Castro and the inflation should probably be 5% rather than $.5 million.
Heh, I just noticed Philip Humber has been relegated to bullpen duty. Has anyone else pitched a perfect game and lost his starting job later the same year?
@ mb21:
$20 million is too low for arbitration. Even if we go more conservative and go 3, 6, 9, 12 we’re talking $30 million if he goes year to year. Consider two all-stars already, all the games played, .300 batting averages, it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets $3.5 to $4 million next year. Then it might be as high as 4, 8, 13, 18 or so.
Personally, I wouldn’t lock Castro up long-term. I probably would have a year ago, but his decline offensively is concerning. His walk rate has been going the wrong direction and the strikeouts are up. I’m not as interested in signing him long-term at this point.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
That’s very odd. Maybe it was more of a defensive perfect game. I honestly don’t remember. Didn’t hurt that the opponent was the M’s in Safeco either.
Longoria’s contract was for 6 years and $17 million, but he signed it a few days after his debut. Including the options, which are certain to be picked up, he’ll get $39 million. Considering the first couple are league minimum it’s really the same 6-year deal. The difference here is that you had WAY more risk with Longoria considering he hadn’t had 3 years of success like Castro has had.
im guessing 6/ 60
I think 5/55, 6th year club option for big money.
Steve Rosenbloom is gonna be pissed
Cliff Lee: 11 strikeouts, no walks through 6. Also, 3 homers.
Cliff’s FIP on the day is 5.93; his xFIP is 1.15.
MLBTR updated to say that comps include Hanley, Tulo and Jose Reyes. I think Tulo had a reasonable extension but that got reworked into his latest extension.
Carlos Pena: .190/.320/.341. Yipe.
@ Rice Cube:
I’ll look closer at those players in the morning, but after a quick look at their contracts it appears a rough average of the contracts they receieved early on was for about 6 years and $50 million. This includes an adjustment for Jose Reyes since he signed a 4 year deal. I’ll consider playing time tomorrow, but 6/50 seems about right to me.
@ mb21:
Damn, I’ll have to adjust down. Still think Theo will try and get a better deal with a big option year or two at the end.
Since we recently talked about famous people we’ve seen, here’s one who I actually met a few times when I lived in Arizona who is literally insane: http://www.grantland.com/blog/hollywood-prospectus/post/_/id/55557/dave-mustaine-tk
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Also, Castro isn’t as good as any of those shortstops. Jose Reyes was considered a sure thing superstar. Same with Hanley and Tulo. I don’t really know anyone who thinks Castro is going to achieve that level of stardom. While those are fair comparables, I think we should expect Castro to get less than the average of that group. He’s not as good as they are on average and he doesn’t have the same expectations that the others had. I’ll look at this more tomorrow, but if those are the comparables 6/40 won’t surprise me.
This is from Bleacher Nation’s previous blog from when Castro’s agents said they weren’t interested in discussing extensions yet:
6/$50MM sounds reasonable. I’m inclined to think that they try to bump it down but I also like MO’s idea of using option years at the end a la McCutchen’s contract.
@ Rice Cube:
Those are outfielders though so I think their value does take a bit of a hit, although McCutchen is a CF.
@ Rice Cube:
Then again, first basemen who slug are getting bajillion dollar contracts so what do I know…
@ Rice Cube:
Outfielders, but all are better than Castro. I’ll look around tomorrow, but based on what we’ve learned so far tonight, 6/50 or so will just piss me off. That’s paying him far more than he’s worth based on comparable (but better) players. 6/40 at the most in my opinion. If Castro wants more than that see what you can get for him in the offseason.
josh wrote:
Win, indeed
im fine with up to 6 60. Castro is a future HOF player. Lock his ass up
god i wish i could find a job with a beer company Berselius wrote:
Berselius wrote:
Hey Josh,
Can you dig up copies of the Virginia Gazette, analyze the phraseology in comparison with the Declaration of Independence and answer MSNBC’s question?
I’ll give you tree–or send you some bugs off of one.
@ SVB:
Sorry, bro, I’m allergic to work.
@ dylanj:
I love Hennepin. Finding the four pack was like winning the lottery for me. I plan to savor it.
mb21 wrote:
i would be interested in hearing this story.
I love Megadeth but Mustaine seems like a nutcase.
@ josh:
Very cool brewery, if you’re ever in the Cooperstown area of New York I highly recommend visiting Ommegang and the Old Slugger breweries.
@ EnricoPallazzo: that is, mb, i would like to hear your story. not dave mustaine’s weird conspiracy stories.
@ mb21:
The guys in Metallica caught a lot of flak in the past for dumping Dave like they did, but the more you learn about the guy, the more you see their point.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Where do you think Mustaine got his theories from? mb, of course.
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/12793/baez-quietly-emerging-as-top-cubs-prospect
@ Mish:
That pic resembles AROD and if he just develops into 1/2 of that I’d be satisfied.
@ pinetar:
Half of an A-Rod is a HOFer (dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
I really want to make a centaur joke here but I don’t know what to do with it.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Mustaine lived next to a buddy of mine in Arizona. He’s since moved (San Diego, I think), but when I lived in Arizona I had a friend who lived right next to him. I only met the guy a few times and he actually seemed down to earth. We never discussed politics and conspiracy theories though. I was a Megadeth fan when I was younger (before Arizona) so I thought it was pretty cool I met the guy. He stopped over at my friend’s house for a party one night and he invited us over to a party he had. He had lots of them. How could you not go to a party that someone like that invited you to? The place was wall to wall madness.
I don’t really have any funny or cool stories to tell. Just met him a few times and we didn’t talk about the shit he apparently thinks about too often. Seemed like a nice guy when I met him. Liked to party, always had women all over him, typical rock star. Not much else to say really.
@ mb21:
I used to play guitar in a progressive metal band and loved Dave Mustaine and the Marty Friedman/Dave mustaine era of Megadeth, specifically the ‘Rust in Peace’ era.
I ithink he’s been hanging out with Alex Jones too much (literally).
@ mb21:huh. interesting. there are a very, very small handful of celebrities that i would actually give a shit about meeting, and mustaine is one of them. he has such a shitty rep but any interviews i’ve seen/read make him seem like a pretty normal dude (albeit totally crazy, if that makes any sense).
anyway, now that i know that you guys are super tight, i’ll expect backstage passes next time megadeth tours the US. thanks in advance. i’ll reciprocate by getting you decent seats to any WNBA game you want. trust me, it’s a good deal.
@ AB:
i just googled “alex jones” because i don’t know who he is and this picture came up. and yes i realize it’s not him but it’s still an amazing picture.
@ AB:
When I was a kid and listened to metal, they were one of my favorite bands. I was always glad that Metallica kicked him out because it gave me two metal bands I really enjoyed. For a brief time (probably up until Rust in Peace) I actually preferred Megadeth. I didn’t listen to metal by the time I met him. I hadn’t listened to it for several years, but I still enjoyed meeting him. I don’t think we knew how crazy he is then either. He just seemed like a typical rock star to me.
Minor league shit up
http://www.obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/the-children-are-the-future-cubs-minor-league-update-sponsored-by-the-sitwell-company.html