You can follow MLB Trade Rumors for updates for now. I’ll be adding to this post, but figured we should have a new post to talk about it.
The Cubs traded Carlos Zambrano to the Marlins for Chris Volstad this evening. Zambrano has one year remaining at $18 million and an option that has no chance of vesting. One report claims the Cubs sent $17.52 million (all of the contract minus the league minimum) while another reports suggests they sent $15 million. Zambrano is projected to be worth about 1.5 WAR or $7.5 million. His surplus trade value is -$10.5 million.
Chris Volstad is not good. At all. He’s been worth 3.3 rWAR in his career and 2.3 came in his abbreviated 2008 rookie season. He has a career 4.59 ERA in a pitcher’s park. His career FIP is 4.52. CAIRO projects 114 innings, a 4.59 ERA, a 4.31 FIP and 0.0 WAR. So the Cubs get $0 in return and pay somewhere between $15 and $17.5 million.
The Cubs should have paid about $10.5 million and received Volstad. This is not a good trade. They traded a decent pitcher who obviously has issues, but they traded talent away and got nothing in return. Disappointing.
Above I used the CAIRO for Volstad, but an average for Z. Z’s CAIRO is .7 WAR so that changes things. They traded Z who is worth $3.5 million next year. His surplus trade value would be -$14.5 million and they apparently sent $15 million. Right on. Almost a perfect match after all.
Sounds like about what most of us here expected. They’d have to send $15MM over to get something crappy back. Hopefully Volstad has a bounceback.
Wow
Touché, GBTS
I’m actually amazed that they got Volstad without throwing any more into the deal than $15M.
Sad to see Z go, glad to see him go to a situation he’ll probably enjoy.
Volstead sounded familiar for some reason so I looked it up. Now every time he pitches I’m going to think of prohibition.
updated
[quote name=Aisle424]I’m actually amazed that they got Volstad without throwing any more into the deal than $15M.[/quote]Also, this. I think this is actually a pretty good deal all things considered.
Cubs fans are such haters…damn.
updated once again.
[quote name=fang2415]Also, this. I think this is actually a pretty good deal all things considered.[/quote]My first thought was that it was a pretty bad trade. Using CAIRO for both, Z’s surplus trade value is -$14.5 million. They got nothing in return and sent $15 million.
[quote name=mb21]My first thought was that it was a pretty bad trade. Using CAIRO for both, Z’s surplus trade value is -$14.5 million. They got nothing in return and sent $15 million.[/quote]Isn’t Volstad worth about a win? Ain’t much, but it’s not nothing, neither.
Peasants! Arst thou conversing?
I trust that nothing has happened in my abscence.
[quote name=uncle dave]Isn’t Volstad worth about a win? Ain’t much, but it’s not nothing, neither.[/quote]CAIRO has him at 0.0 WAR. It has Z at .7 WAR. I haven’t looked at other projections yet. Will do so shortly.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6qxMP3deU8[/quote]This is now a goodbye songs thread.
[quote name=mb21]CAIRO has him at 0.0 WAR. It has Z at .7 WAR. I haven’t looked at other projections yet. Will do so shortly.[/quote]
that was my impression, not looking at any projections.
post title updated
[quote name=mb21]My first thought was that it was a pretty bad trade. Using CAIRO for both, Z’s surplus trade value is -$14.5 million. They got nothing in return and sent $15 million.[/quote]I think Zambrano is a rare case where a special WAR baseline applies. He’s been enough of a pain in the ass that even if he’ll add x wins to your team, you’d still get rid of him for free. Not sure whether that x is .4 or .7 or 1.5 or 2, but judging by gut this deal doesn’t seem too far off.
Fangraphs has Volstad at 1.3 WAR last year and Bill James has him projected to be pretty much similar to last year.
I have Volstad at a career 310 OPS and Zambrano at 646.
/terrible trade
/longtime lurker, first-time poster
/cool story bro
Volstad is due approx. 2.6M in arby. So it was basically a straight-up swap. Somebody has to absorb innings in 2012, and while there’s no seeming upside, at least he’s young? Zambrano had reached the point where the potential downside if it went poorly wasn’t worth the 1 win you’d get from him. Plus if his VWL numbers are any indication, he blows now so it doesn’t matter.
Volstad was the guy that Nyjer Morgan started the fight with.
[quote name=Aisle424]Fangraphs has Volstad at 1.3 WAR last year and Bill James has him projected to be pretty much similar to last year.[/quote]FWIW, rWAR has him at 3.3 in his career and 2.3 of that was in 2008.
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]Volstad is due approx. 2.6M in arby. So it was basically a straight-up swap. Somebody has to absorb innings in 2012, and while there’s no seeming upside, at least he’s young? Zambrano had reached the point where the potential downside if it went poorly wasn’t worth the 1 win you’d get from him. Plus if his VWL numbers are any indication, he blows now so it doesn’t matter.[/quote]Shit, I didn’t even think about Volstad’s contract. I need to take a little more time to think about this, but I don’t see how it’s a good trade at this point.
Then again, Z probably had next to no value at all and this was undoubtedly the best they could get. Not like Thoyer had a better deal in hand decided to take the worse one.
[quote name=fang2415]I think Zambrano is a rare case where a special WAR baseline applies. He’s been enough of a pain in the ass that even if he’ll add x wins to your team, you’d still get rid of him for free. Not sure whether that x is .4 or .7 or 1.5 or 2, but judging by gut this deal doesn’t seem too far off.[/quote]Baseball Analysts found that 2 WAR is what teams were willing to give up to get rid of problematic players.
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]Volstad is due approx. 2.6M in arby. So it was basically a straight-up swap. Somebody has to absorb innings in 2012, and while there’s no seeming upside, at least he’s young? Zambrano had reached the point where the potential downside if it went poorly wasn’t worth the 1 win you’d get from him. Plus if his VWL numbers are any indication, he blows now so it doesn’t matter.[/quote]What year of arb is Volstad? If he’s cost-controlled for a while then he can keep eating innings for a few years to boot.
My knee-jerk is to like this trade for some reason. But then again, I have had a few drinks.
I like the “truckload of money” tag.
[quote name=mb21]Shit, I didn’t even think about Volstad’s contract. I need to take a little more time to think about this, but I don’t see how it’s a good trade at this point.
Then again, Z probably had next to no value at all and this was undoubtedly the best they could get. Not like Thoyer had a better deal in hand decided to take the worse one.[/quote]Yeah, if they we’re going to deal him, this was probably the best they were going to get.
[quote name=Aisle424]Fangraphs has Volstad at 1.3 WAR last year and Bill James has him projected to be pretty much similar to last year.[/quote]That was my source. Looks like he ran into some bad luck as his FIP was constant between ’10 and ’11.
I like the trade, though I’ll miss Z. Best bet says that they will be roughly equal in value next year, but you acquire the guy with all of the upside and three arb-eligible years left on the clock. Also, you can save a few bucks on not having to replace shit that gets smashed in the dugout every couple of months.
Also, I saw that Z’s arm wasn’t raised all the way as he gave the Chicago media the bird on the way out of town, so he’s clearly damaged goods.
[quote name=mb21]Baseball Analysts found that 2 WAR is what teams were willing to give up to get rid of problematic players.[/quote]So if you use that then Z’s value was minus another $10M or so, or -$26M. The Cubs will pay 17.5 and get Volstad to save us from IPs by James Russel. That makes it sound even better.
I think there is a reasonable hope that Volstad could still figure it out and become more effective, whereas Zambrano is going to get nothing but worse.
I hope he rebounds a bit for his sake, but I don’t think it is likely, and it is likely Z and Ozzie’s friendship is going to get seriously strained along the way.
Volstad’s xFIP last year was 3.64.
I’m just looking for the silver linings wherever I can find them.
I read somewhere that Volstad has 3 years of control left. Let him eat innings this year, and if he’s replacement level, shift him to the pen and try to retain some value in 2013 when the rotation has mor bulk.
hey, we got a living human being for Z. Thats more than I thought we’d get.
Too many nutjobs in Miami.. Dont like how that ends
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Too many nutjobs in Miami.. Dont like how that ends[/quote]With a SEC investigation.
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Too many nutjobs in Miami.. Dont like how that ends[/quote]Just desserts for their tax-payer funded FA spree.
Yabbut…. these projections don’t account for the increased likelihood that Z will face opponents whose schedules are altered by hurricanes.
/astros’d
Chris Jaffe sent me a link to his projected hall of fame vote yesterday so I finally got around to putting up an Unobstructed View about it: http://www.obstructedview.net/unobstructed-views/mlb/projected-hall-of-fame-results.html
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]I read somewhere that Volstad has 3 years of control left. Let him eat innings this year, and if he’s replacement level, shift him to the pen and try to retain some value in 2013 when the rotation has mor bulk.[/quote]
So… the Cubs lost a win or two in projected value for this year, and have a guy under team control who may or may not provide value for a couple more years? OK, i’ll take that.
new Zambrano shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/carlos-zambranos-top-10-starts.html
[quote name=Aisle424]Volstad’s xFIP last year was 3.64.
I’m just looking for the silver linings wherever I can find them.[/quote]
The silver lining is now there will only be Sullivan hack jobs about Z a couple times a year instead of a couple times a month.
[quote name=shawndgoldman]The silver lining is now there will only be Sullivan hack jobs about Z a couple times a year instead of a couple times a month.[/quote]
I was tempted to write a comment on Phil Roger’s article that at least the Cubs didn’t get back a lazy Latino in the deal, but I couldn’t remember the HTML code for the sarcasm font and figured I’d be branded a racist since people wouldn’t get the joke.
[quote name=shawndgoldman]So… the Cubs lost a win or two in projected value for this year, and have a guy under team control who may or may not provide value for a couple more years? OK, i’ll take that.[/quote]I don’t even believe they neccesarily gave up a win or two ( OK, MAYBE one, but not 2)
Fangraphs has Volstead at 1,3 WAR for last year and as pointed out on Bleacher nation, he did that with a slightly higher than career average BABIP and while giving up quite a lot of homers.
Z’s projections don’t look much better than that, at least for the Cubs. I suppose he may have a great comeback after a fresh start with the Fish, but who knows.
All things considered, good riddance to this nutjob.