Jayson Stark had an interesting rumor on Matt Garza that's worth discussing a bit.
We'd still wager heavily that Matt Garza will get traded in the next month. But if it happens, it'll definitely be a heavy-duty kind of deal. One AL executive's description of the Cubs' current model for a potential Garza trade is "the Ubaldo Jimenez deal." Translation: It's going to take two young, controllable players with big upside.
The Indians acquired Jimenez for Alex White, Matt McBride and Joe Gardner. Alex White was rated as the 47th best prospect entering the 2011 season while the other two were unranked. Joe Gardner was ranked a B prospect by John Sickels. Jimenez had 3 years of arbitration remaining on his contract and had established himself as one of the better pitchers in the National League. The Indians gave up about $23 million in minor league talent between the 3 players and acquired 3 cost-controlled years of a very good pitcher. Jimenez had taken a huge step back, but at the time of the trade he was expected to be pretty good.
Garza, on the other hand, has only one year remaining of club control after this one and wasn't quite as good as Jimenez was prior to a trade. If the Cubs are looking for this kind of a return they'll probably find nobody interested. I'm also fairly certain this return would be much less than what the average Cubs fan would expect for someone like Garza, but he just doesn't have that much trade value remaining.
Update: Mish pointed out that Drew Pomeranz was also included in the deal. I wrote this after learning of my error:
Ubaldo’s ZiPS last year was about a 3.30 FIP. Garza’s is 3.64 right now. Plus, the run environment was projected to be higher entering 2011 than it is projected to be now. There’s really no comparison between the value these two had at the time of trade discussions.
Akabari wrote:
Forgot about them. Yeah, they’re much better than tomatoes most of the time. A little harder to find here in Topeka, Kansas, but worth the extra trip to get them.
(dying laughing) @ GBTS
Cliff Lee is once again behind on the scoreboard. Did someone put a curse on him or something?
@ GBTS:
Love it love it love it.
It reminds me of when Ted Lilly gave up that home run and threw his glove.
Clevenger is officially grindy: http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/11442/cubs-clevanger-showing-vast-potential?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
@ mb21:
I think Soto’s getting gradually put into a platoon with Clevenger which is kind of sad because Geo should be the guy with better power potential and needs the playing time to re-establish trade value in my opinion.
+1 for GBTSgif.
@ mb21:
I would fire a writer who used that un-ironically.
Well, guess who’s not going to get his first win today?
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Cliff Lee is going to go on a murderous rampage soon.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Yeah, that’s kind of his fault there.
@ Rice Cube:
Agreed. There are several games he should have won, but this ain’t one of ‘em.
He’s had a string of bad starts. His ERA is now over 4. Needless to say, Chass still thinks he’s in the running for the Cy Young.
Wait, am I crazy for thinking Drew Pomeranz also went over to the Rockies for Ubaldo? He was pretty highly ranked no?
Mish wrote:
Yep, he was the key guy in the deal. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/08/drew-pomeranz-joins-rockies.html
@ Mish:
No, you’re crazy for entirely different reasons.
Man, Franklin Gutierrez just got off the DL, which he’s been on all season, and got beaned in the face on a pickoff attempt, and is back on. That sucks.
I feel Colorado had that trade won when they did it, even though TINSTAAPP. They knew Ubaldo was no longer happy with his contract and would be a problem for them as they were not going to give him a raise.
(dying laughing) I didn’t even see Pomeranz on the bref transaction. I’m an idiot.
Still, Jimenez had a lot more trade value than Garza has.
What if the Cubs had a 23-year old center fielder in Iowa that was producing at a .313/.386/.547 clip over 327 PA’s, coming off a year when he hit .345/.430/.600 in his first 185 PA’s in AAA? We’d be pretty excited.
Well, that’s what Brett Jacksons slash numbers would have been over the last year or so, if his BB rate, ISO, and BABIP all stayed the same… but he earned a few extra singles each month by striking out at the MLB-average rate of 19.6% of the time instead of 29.6% of the time last year and 33.9% of the time this year.
It goes to show that the strikeouts are essentially the only flaw that is holding this guy back from being a top-tier prospect.
(Inspired by MB’s writeup on Jackson, which was very good.)
Ubaldo’s ZiPS last year was about a 3.30 FIP. Garza’s is 3.64 right now. Plus, the run environment was projected to be higher entering 2011 than it is projected to be now. There’s really no comparison between the value these two had at the time of trade discussions.
@ mb21:
Yes there is. You just made it.
What about Dempster + LaHair to the Dodgers?
http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/article/could_derrek_lee_help_dodgers/11119457?new_post=true
shawndgoldman wrote:
great point though I’d add it’s a pretty big flaw, but no player is perfect. It appears he can hit despite the k rate and I think at this point too much attention is being paid to the guy’s one flaw. I’m guilty of it, but today I learned that you can be valuable even with an absurdly high strikeout rate. If he was a first baseman I’d be a lot more worried.
@ shawndgoldman:
I’ve watched the Yankees several times over the last couple weeks and I think they make a huge push for Dempster. I do like the idea of packaging Dempster with LaHair though. What do the dodgers have?
@ mb21:
I think the Indians overpaid for Ubaldo, and agree that he had more value, much more value, going into that trade then Garza does now. Holding out for a deal like that means Garza is not going anywhere mid-season.
You know, Jackson is a great example how we all tend to look for the negative in a player to highlight. I hope the difference between myself, this site too, is that I eventually taker a more thorough examination of the player. I don’t want to do the opposite either.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
Yep. It’s basically telling teams he’s not available unless they give them an absurd amount.
@ mb21:
Right. The most amazing thing about Brett Jaskon is that he’s still an exciting prospect despite his 30+% K rate. That’s incredible.
@ shawndgoldman:
I’m convinced. Let’s trade him for a LOOGY.
But seriously, I wonder how they can fix that. Jose Baustista lowered his K rate over the years, but how!?
I know it’s a stastical anomaly, but Aaron Hill just hit for the cycle again. Whatever else it means, that guy is hitting like a sumbitch right now.
I can’t remember if strikeout rate for batters continues to decline over the course of a career or not. It might.
@ mb21:
Playing a premium position definitely helps. That’s Mark Reynolds’s problem. He can’t play D worth a shit, and he’s an all or nothing hitter. However you measure defense, playing well at CF can definitely improve his value.
So could they call up Jackson now if they wanted to? In terms of limiting his service time to something like what Rizzo has, I mean. Is there any reason to keep him down. I think we discussed this before now that turn into Mr. Question Man.
You may as well keep him from being a super twomatmthis point which means the all star break.
@ mb21:
That’s what I was wondering. I’m fine with waiting for monetary reasons.
@ mb21:
Gives him time to snap out of the funk, too. Built-in excuses FTW!
Hey, you guys mentioned “quality strikes” before…WTF is that? A strike is a strike. Are they disallowing strikes that should be launched into the stratosphere if the batter hadn’t just missed?
A quality strike is a quality pitch that’s in the strike zone (that is, a pitch that has good movement, location, etc. and is also a strike). I don’t get the confusion.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Seems a little subjective is all, I guess. I had never heard the term before today.
@ GBTS:
That makes me laugh every time.
Holy cow, Joey Votto has 33 doubles! He’s pretty good. By contrast, Bautista just hit his 10th.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Does it still count as a quality strike if it’s launched into orbit? Sometimes you make a good pitch and the batter’s just better than you.
@ josh:
Usually, it’s used to describe strikes that are on the edges of the zone, as opposed to down the middle, so I don’t think it’s all that subjective. (It seems perfectly reasonable to me to differentiate between pitches that reach their intended location and pitches that merely make it through the strike zone. It’s the difference between “command” and “control.”)
He’s alright, if you like position players who can hit. I prefer The Cubs, apparently.
Vitters homered again today. His 13th. His OPS is now .846
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
That’s cool. I don’t have a strong opinion one way or another. If I ever heard the term, I didn’t think much of it.
@ Rice Cube:
Does it count as a “strike” if it’s put into play?
Dickey is slapping Dodgers down left and right. Really putting it to them.
That guy is huge. He’s going to be very hard to beat.
I think an example for Josh’s question would be the homer shark gave up to that shitty guy a couple days ago. It was on the inside bottom corner of the zone but he parked it.
@ josh:
I wish he pitched that well last time out when he was on national TV (and the internet) so I could watch him at his best. Maybe he’s just not much of an exhibitionist.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
That’s the way that shit always goes.
@ Berselius:
Damn, Dave. That’s cold-blooded.
Wow. TheRealDaveOtto needs to change his Twitter handle to TheRealRoyalCrownAssswipe
I am back on the Vitters train. Very impressive year so far at AAA. I would call him up to be honest. Defense seems to have improved. He is drawing some walks. He is hitting for power. Maybe he can be a solid average big leaguer. Cost controlled that is a good player
@ Rizzo the Rat:
How do we know what the intended location was? I certainly don’t trust the announcers. Is a quality strike only one that’s actually within the zone? What about pitches low and away that induce swings? A pitch on the outer half may be a good pitch against one batter and a terrible one against another. What about the first pitch fastball high and inside. What about pitches two inches off the plae? It’s a silly distinction. I don’t know what is a quality strike against one hitter and another. Neither do the people talking about quality strikes.
I think we can throw quality strikes in with command and control. They mean whatever the viewer wants them to mean.
Are you saying you can’t talk about how good pitches are, just whether they’re strikes or not?
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I’m saying that we can’t know the intent of the pitcher, can’t memorize what’s a good strike against one hitter as opposed to another and so on. There are too many variables here. Why isn’t a pitch 3 inches off the plate considered a quality strike? What about the high and inside fastball. It’s (quality strikes) a distinction not worth making. A quality strike to one hitter may be in another hitter’s wheelhouse. Here are two starts by Maholm.
Are you really going to tell me you can tell which start he threw quality strikes in and which one he did not? Quality strikes has nothing to do with the quality of the strikes, but the quality of the pitching performance.
The one in comment 61 is the worst start of the season for Maholm. One of them in 60 is his best.
What I’m saying is that there are kinds of pitches that, over the long-term, tend to get outs more often than others. A breaking ball that actually breaks is better than one that stays up in the middle of the zone, regardless of the immediate result. Part of a scout’s job is to tell whether the pitches are good or not, not just whether they’re strikes or whether they get outs.
Looks like Penn State did cover up the Sandusky molestations. Not that this is surprising to hear at this point.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Yeah and I think a scout has a trained eye. I don’t think you, me and most announcers do. But the reality is that it’s subjective.
@ SVB:
I think it’s quite possible that pitchers who throw “quality strikes” have good ERAs and pitchers who throw shitty strikes have low ERAs. That’s why I don’t think it’s a super meaningful concept. Can’t we just say he’s a great pitcher? Do we have to add that his strikes are really good?
Unless this is a way to excuse pitcher losses and bad luck. “He battled out there and threw a ton of quality strikes, but he got unlucky with one mistake pitch and also couldn’t get any run support.”
@ GBTS:
Yeah, so reading between the lines
.
.
it looks like they were about to do the right thing but then Paterno told the AD to tell the big wigs to hush it up.
I’M SHOCKED
Also, dudes in power were corrupt assholes who when push came to shove were concerned only with protecting their own unraped asses.
.
SHOCKED
I’m going to be updating WordPress momentarily. There should be little disruption to the site. Two things will have to be edited after the update: the file to allow users to post images and the file that allows commenters to tab to the post comment button (I know berselius and I can’t live without this one).
@ Suburban kid:
I’m more stunned that they put it in writing, than anything.
If you’re going to even CONSIDER staying silent on a child rape, how do you not respond to that e-mail with something like, “Let’s discuss our options in private, like at the next home men’s basketball game.”
Can one of you guys try posting an image?
@ GBTS:
It seems they thought they were covering their tracks by referring to him as the “subject” instead of by name. The mind don’t half boggle.
@ mb21:
Sure
an image
Suburban kid wrote:
Agreed. Considering the metrics available today I really see little reason for us as fans to think about quality strikes. If a scout is trained to spot those things then all the power to him, but i don’t trust my ability to know what is a quality strike against this hitter in this count on this day and this weather and so on and so forth. Over the course of the game even a pitcher having a bad game is going to throw some really nice strikes as evidenced by Maholm’s game plots. Maybe in some games they’re in better counts and maybe in other games he chooses where to throw them and to whom more wisely than others. I don’t know. What I do know is that I can look at Maholm’s line from yesterday and learn a lot more about the quality of his start by looking at any other number of things available to us than taking someone’s word that he threw more quality strikes than in a bad start.
is this the first first-round overslot guy?
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/06/30/dodgers-sign-first-rounder-corey-seager-for-2-35-million/
lineup today
CF DeJesus
SS Castro
1B Rizzo
LF Adolfo
RF LaHair
C Geo
2B Barney
3B Valbuena
P Garza
@ Berselius:
Rizzo got called up!?
@ GW:
I think it might be the first guy signed well over slot, but I’m not sure.
@ GW:
The Red Sox have agreed to terms with first round draft pick Deven Marrero, tweets Jim Callis of Baseball America. The Arizona State shortstop will receive a $2.05MM bonus, significantly higher than the $1.75MM recommended by MLB.
Only other 1st rounder over slot so far, a few sammich picks were over slot, but it is so hard to save money elsewhere in the 1st 10 rounds to go over slot by much in the 1st round.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
thanks, bb
volstad to start tuesday
Muskat says Soler signing to be announced today; Sveum compares him to Glenn Braggs.
dodgers- astros have seemingly agreed to a carlos lee trade (possibly involving “B” prospect garrett gould), lee pondering whether to allow it.
@ GW:
Lee makes a lot of sense for the Dodgers. Give up little besides cash and get a nice upgrade at 1B, anyone else available would cost more in prospects.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
derrek lee wouldn’t
Yeah, meaning Carlos Lee, D-Lee doesn’t make much sense for them.
@ Berselius:
Lots of lefties in there, for some reason.
Castro with a walk!
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/anthony-rizzo-ignore-the-hype-and-sell/
Soler $30M/9 years
Is this news? I haven’t been around but it’s listed on Yahoo’s headlines
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/cubs-sign-cuban-soler-9-185010508–mlb.html
Iowa roster has 0 1B but it does have 4 2B.
Garza falls down trying to field.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
(dying laughing), I just turned on the tv and that was the first thing I saw. Garza’s defense is just comical at this point.
RIZZO BOMB
RIZZO
Great White Hope type of guy STOPS and STARES at his second ever major league HR.
Learn to respect the game, Rookie!!!!!111111
@ BubbaBiscuit:
i think dlee makes a lot of sense. i was pointing him out as an option that wouldn’t cost la any prospects. I get the feeling he’s asking for too much money, however.
@ GW:
It doesn’t help DLee that he hasn’t been facing much live pitching in nearly a year either.
And that he’s a notorious slow starter
Len isn’t bothering me as much as he did the last couple of years.
Crazy lightning in Chambana. I wonder how it looks in Chicago.
@ Suburban kid:
It’s just official now.
Astros are a TOOTBLAN factory.
DLee has been brought up in rumors for the Dodgers. He was not good last season and was hurt often, his numbers in Pittsburgh suffer from both SSS and a .397 BABIP. His numbers with Baltimore in 11 & Cubs in 10 along with aging another year put him at almost the same offensive output as Loney is projected to get the rest of this season. Thome or Jason Giambi make more sense than DLee, but Carlos Lee for not much other than salary relief for Houston is a better fit.
Well, scratch Thome, he is now an Oriole.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
Carlos Lee is no great shakes, and he benefits from the Minute Maid’s short porch in left. Carlos 2009-2012: .355, .308, .339, .328. DLee 2009-2011: .412, .340, .335.
Cubs.com says they finalized the pact with Soler. Did this front office move on to signing players to pacts? Contracts are so yesterday. Pact this guy!
@ mb21:
I think the writers get bored sometimes.
@ mb21:
Is it a murder-suicide pact? That would save us all a lot of time.
@ mb21:
(dying laughing)
I think the Cubs should sign all future players to a tontine. Last surviving member gets the entire payroll.
@ GBTS:
It would make for a more interesting off-season. Where all the players start dying “accidentally.”
@ josh:
There is one more way to kill a man . . . but it is as intricate as a well-played game of chess.
Daniel Hudson—-> TJ
Rizzo got clown shoed on that one
Looks like Strasburg left his start early, but it was heat exhaustion.
Did that ball Rizzo hit land yet?
That slide from Barney was the very picture of grace.
It’s all my fault. I start watching games and the Cubs start winning. Sorry guys.
@ Suburban kid:
Eh, it’s mostly the Astros’ fault. They make average teams look like the Yankees and the Cubs look like an average team.
Garza had a weird game. 3 walks, 1 strikeout (Happ, natch), and a .474 BABIP, but only 2 runs scored. Thank you, Astros baserunners!
Players who had to leave early today: Votto, McCutchen, Strasburg. Am I missing anyone?
My wife said Garza caused some weirdness in the postgame interview?
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Are you assuming any player in the Cubs/Astros game was really ever “there”?
@ GW:
no pact for him
@ josh:
I heard this as well. Maybe he got pied again.
@ Rice Cube:
After getting more details, sounded like, basically, Garza stopped the interview, yelled something into the headset and then pulled Rizzo away so they couldn’t talk to him. Some frat bro type of BS.
@ josh:
Maybe it’s the legendary “First hooker after first career team home run” initiation?
@ Rice Cube:
Rizzo had a homer last year, too.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Yeah, but it wasn’t for the Cubs. Hookers for each new team!
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/site/josh-is-joining-obstructed-view.html