•   Follow us
  •   Become a fan
  •   Contact
  •   RSS
  • Cubs compared to their projections

    Back in April I compared the Cubs players to their projections and intended to do it once a month. Instead, you get once every two months. Or if we averae the 2+ months of the season you are getting it once a month. So there.

    Name PA wRC Proj wRC Diff
    Reed Johnson 69 15.3 6.3 9.0
    Jeff Baker 92 14.6 10.0 4.6
    Kosuke Fukudome 213 30.8 26.9 3.9
    Alfonso Soriano 185 25.5 22.7 2.7
    Darwin Barney 265 24.3 22.2 2.1
    Starlin Castro 283 33.6 32.3 1.2
    Koyie Hill 81 6.4 5.3 1.1
    Marlon Byrd 182 22.5 21.9 0.6
    Luis Montanez 28 2.7 2.2 0.6
    Blake DeWitt 100 10.2 10.6 -0.4
    Tony Campana 45 2.6 3.5 -0.9
    DJ LeMahieu 12 -0.5 1.0 -1.5
    Brad Snyder 9 -0.8 1.0 -1.8
    Welington Castillo 13 -0.7 1.2 -1.9
    Aramis Ramirez 246 26.8 33.2 -6.4
    Carlos Pena 237 27.5 34.1 -6.6
    Geovany Soto 166 15.9 24.0 -8.1
    Tyler Colvin 104 -2.0 11.9 -13.9

    These stats are updated through Monday’s games. Holy crap, Reed Johnson. It’s not even close when it comes to who has most outperformed their projection. In nearly 3 times fewer plate appearances, Reed Johnson has produced as many runs as Geovany Soto. Starlin Castro leads the team in wRC with 33.6 and Fukudome is the only other with 30 or more. Tyle Colvin has been worse than Reed Johnson has been good. The Cubs expected a lot of offense from Ramirez, Pena and Soto. Instead, they’ve produced 21.2 runs fewer than we expected them to through the number of plate appearances they have. Darwin Barney has been better than we though of course. He’s going to be out only 2 weeks after landing on the DL because of a small explosion inside his knee. I’m skeptical of the return date if it is a Grade 3 tear/sprain/strain. It can’t be that bad.

    Name IP RA FIP Proj-RA Proj-FIP Diff-RA Diff-FIP
    Matt Garza 65.2 4.93 2.30 4.34 4.27 -0.59 1.97
    Sean Marshall 30.1 2.37 2.23 3.85 3.51 1.48 1.28
    Jeff Samardzija 36.2 4.66 4.08 5.79 5.33 1.13 1.25
    Doug Davis 29 7.14 3.51 4.81 4.42 -2.33 0.91
    Marcos Mateo 15.2 5.74 4.17 5.46 4.86 -0.28 0.69
    Carlos Marmol 30 3.00 2.59 3.25 3.07 0.25 0.48
    John Grabow 27.2 5.53 4.40 4.71 4.53 -0.82 0.13
    Carlos Zambrano 90 4.50 3.96 4.18 3.89 -0.32 -0.07
    Justin Berg 12 3.75 5.04 5.06 4.89 1.31 -0.15
    Ryan Dempster 87 5.59 4.15 4.17 4.00 -1.42 -0.15
    Kerry Wood 24 3.75 3.92 4.03 3.73 0.28 -0.19
    Andrew Cashner 5.1 1.69 5.21 4.73 4.50 3.04 -0.71
    James Russell 36.2 6.14 5.74 5.46 4.92 -0.68 -0.82
    Casey Coleman 37 7.78 5.74 4.89 4.45 -2.89 -1.29
    Rodrigo Lopez 10.1 6.10 6.35 5.59 4.75 -0.51 -1.60
    Randy Wells 18 6.50 5.74 4.48 4.10 -2.02 -1.64
    Jeff Stevens 7 5.14 7.10 5.49 4.57 0.35 -2.53
    Scott Maine 7 10.29 11.10 5.15 4.71 -5.14 -6.39

    Matt Garza has been ridiculously good this season when it comes to the stats he fully controls (strikeouts, walks, hit by pitch and home runs). He’s been almost 2 full runs per 9 better than projected (using FIP of course). The players at the bottom of the list have performed well below expectations, but none of them have many innings. Dempster’s FIP is basically as we expected, but his RA is -1.4 runs worse per 9. A lot of that is luck, which was true with Garza early in the season.

    You can look at the information and do with what you want. It’s pretty simple: how the players have performed compared to what we expected. Sample sizes for most of the players is still a big issue and almost all of the pitchers it’s an even bigger issue.


    dmick89
    When I awoke, the Dire Wolf, six hundred pounds of sin, Was grinning at my window, all I said was "Come on in"
    dmick89
    About tie this happened: Court battle for EA over game faces http://t.co/j5H3B1ihOx - 14 hours ago
    dmick89
    Contact me here

    286 Responses to “Cubs compared to their projections”

    1. 1 Rice Cube says:

      Pujols having issues at 3B tonight.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    2. 2 josh says:

      I’m surprised Zambrano is below projection. Is that partly due to the bad outing in Philly?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    3. 3 josh says:

      Rami, Pena, and Soto underperforming seems to say it all. The guys ahead get on base, the guys behind pop out to the catcher or strike out looking.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    4. 4 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Josh]I’m surprised Zambrano is below projection. Is that partly due to the bad outing in Philly?[/quote]
      I don’t know how much of a difference in RA is considered significant, but the FIP difference isn’t all that big. He’s performing basically about as well as expected it seems.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    5. 5 Berselius says:

      [quote name=mb21] By the way, I don’t really care if Hendry is fired or not. It’s not going to make a damn bit of difference with this organization. This team’s problems run a lot deeper than its general manager.[/quote]
      It all depends on who they hire when Hendry goes. If it’s Ned Coletti, then yes, the problems are much deeper (dying laughing).

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    6. 6 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Josh]I’m surprised Zambrano is below projection. Is that partly due to the bad outing in Philly?[/quote]I’m not sure that Zambrano has been that good this season. It’s interesting that a lot of fans have suddenly started to like him and say he’s done a good job, but compared to what he’s done in the past, not even close. His walks are down, which is good, but his strikeouts are WAY down. His walks will have to stay down for him to have much of any success down the road and I wouldn’t bet on that. The one thing he has done really well this year is work deep into games. He’s averaging almost 6.5 innings per start. There’s just a lot to be concerned about with him at this point. His velocity is way down too.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    7. 7 Rice Cube says:

      I don’t know if the radar is a bit generous sometimes, but Z has been able to get to 92-94 mph fairly often. He seems to like the offspeed stuff more though.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    8. 8 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Berselius]It all depends on who they hire when Hendry goes. If it’s Ned Coletti, then yes, the problems are much deeper (dying laughing).[/quote]The new GM would definitely matter, but it’s not like Friedman or Theo fix this team’s problems. It would be nice if the Cubs hired Friedman, but I actually don’t care.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    9. 9 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]I don’t know if the radar is a bit generous sometimes, but Z has been able to get to 92-94 mph fairly often. He seems to like the offspeed stuff more though.[/quote]Radar guns are usually hot. Pitch f/x has been fairly consistent for him. There was one start he had an average just under 91, but most other starts it’s been below 90.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    10. 10 Berselius says:

      [quote name=mb21]The new GM would definitely matter, but it’s not like Friedman or Theo fix this team’s problems. It would be nice if the Cubs hired Friedman, but I actually don’t care.[/quote]
      Maybe not this year’s, but I’d feel a lot better about, say, 2013 -2014 if one of those guys were at the helm instead of Hendry. Winning will solve a lot of the underlying financial issues.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    11. 11 Rice Cube says:

      Who would be a realistic candidate for Cubs GM if they went to an outsider instead of just promoting Randy Bush?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    12. 12 ACT says:

      Jeter is getting Wally Pipped.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    13. 13 Berselius says:

      Any ETA on the Cubs game?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    14. 14 Rice Cube says:

      Tim Thomas is a very good goalie.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    15. 15 Rice Cube says:

      Indians temporarily stopped sucking.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    16. 16 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]Who would be a realistic candidate for Cubs GM if they went to an outsider instead of just promoting Randy Bush?[/quote]Andrew Friedman’s contract is up and the Cubs would undoubtedly be willing to offer more than the Rays. I’m guessing if the Cubs want him they’ll hire him.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    17. 17 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=mb21]Andrew Friedman’s contract is up and the Cubs would undoubtedly be willing to offer more than the Rays. I’m guessing if the Cubs want him they’ll hire him.[/quote]
      The only reason I think he doesn’t come to the Cubs (assuming the Ricketts don’t lowball) is because he’s supposed to be buddy-buddy with the owner. Also kind of depends on how much free reign he gets to actually build the team, not just trot out a half-ass contender every year.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    18. 18 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Berselius]Maybe not this year’s, but I’d feel a lot better about, say, 2013 -2014 if one of those guys were at the helm instead of Hendry. Winning will solve a lot of the underlying financial issues.[/quote]I guess I figure they’re at least 5 years away from contending unless they have another spending spree. The current team is old and broken, much like Wrigley is. Brett Jackson is a good prospect, but as ACT pointed out, he’s a lot more likely to fail because of his K-rate than another player would be. Trey McNutt is a good pitcher, but not a great one. They really don’t have much beyond that. Ryan Flaherty could probably play some 2nd base quite well. Right now, the only way this team contends in the near future is by spending a lot of money and that just makes contending regularly that much more difficult.

      Since I don’t see this team contending for that long, I don’t really care what they do. A lot can happen between now and then. I might be living on the moon. Or dead. One or the other. (dying laughing)

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    19. 19 mb21 says:

      it’s kind of funny because I see this season as the best it’s going to get for a few years. Cubs probably find a way to win about 70 games this year. Wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t win 70 or more for a few more years. They’re bad and they have a terrible farm system. They’re banking on both of their top two prospects not only working out, but exceeding expectations while also expecting Castro to become a star. Ain’t happening.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    20. 20 ACT says:

      Derrek Lee is now .220/.294/.319. I wonder if he retires after this year.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    21. 21 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]The only reason I think he doesn’t come to the Cubs (assuming the Ricketts don’t lowball) is because he’s supposed to be buddy-buddy with the owner. Also kind of depends on how much free reign he gets to actually build the team, not just trot out a half-ass contender every year.[/quote]I don’t know, RC. If I’m Friedman and I know I can create a team that has regularly contended with the Yankees with no money, I’d want to see what I could do with some money. I’d probably take less money to work for an organization that spends money because I’m thinking I could put together a dynasty with that kind of money. Then I have job security for life. That’s just me though.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    22. 22 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Berselius]Any ETA on the Cubs game?[/quote]No idea. I was looking forward to seeing the reception Z got tonight, but I’m not going to wait around any longer. If it’s a big applause, I’ll check it out on mlb.tv tomorrow.

      mb21 out, fuckfaces!

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    23. 23 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=mb21]I don’t know, RC. If I’m Friedman and I know I can create a team that has regularly contended with the Yankees with no money, I’d want to see what I could do with some money. I’d probably take less money to work for an organization that spends money because I’m thinking I could put together a dynasty with that kind of money. Then I have job security for life. That’s just me though.[/quote]
      I can definitely see that point of view. I also don’t think Friedman is as crazy as Billy Beane has been portrayed to be so he’d definitely accept that kind of a challenge, especially if the paycheck is good.

      Rain is moving out of Chicago but no announcement of game start time yet.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    24. 24 josh says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]Indians temporarily stopped sucking.[/quote]But not the Cardinals. I do like to see them lose.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    25. 25 josh says:

      8:45 start time, supposedly. Going to be a late night.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    26. 26 Rice Cube says:

      If anyone is watching Game 7 now, I think Vancouver just totally lost. What a fail of a shorthanded goal.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    27. 27 Xoomwaffle says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]If anyone is watching Game 7 now, I think Vancouver just totally lost. What a fail of a shorthanded goal.[/quote]
      Lots of luck involved in that goal, but yeah, they probably just lost.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    28. 28 Rice Cube says:

      FYI: Z max velocity so far tonight is 92.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    29. 29 Rice Cube says:

      Just struck out the side! 92 mph on the last strike three call.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    30. 30 josh says:

      My interest in hockey waned when the Blackhawks were eliminated.

      I know Z’s velocity and strikeouts are down, but he seems like he’s been effective anyway. I’m not arguing he’s an ace, but he’s been a solid pitcher.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    31. 31 Rice Cube says:

      Jeff Baker makes LHP his bitch.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    32. 32 josh says:

      I wish we had one guy in the lineup who could do to RHP what Jeff Baker does to LHP.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    33. 33 Bubba Biscuit says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]Who would be a realistic candidate for Cubs GM if they went to an outsider instead of just promoting Randy Bush?[/quote]
      I’m available for league minimum.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    34. 34 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Josh]I wish we had one guy in the lineup who could do to RHP what Jeff Baker does to LHP.[/quote]
      They should tell Baker to learn how to switch hit.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    35. 35 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Bubba Biscuit]I’m available for league minimum.[/quote]
      League minimum for GMs is $1.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    36. 36 Bubba Biscuit says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]League minimum for GMs is $1.[/quote]
      Umm, ok then make that $100,000. A quarter of the league minimum for players.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    37. 37 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Bubba Biscuit]Umm, ok then make that $100,000. A quarter of the league minimum for players.[/quote]
      Lemme see what I can dig out of my couch.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    38. 38 Bubba Biscuit says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]Lemme see what I can dig out of my couch.[/quote]
      They need to save money, I can quit my job.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    39. 39 josh says:

      I’ll do it for $99,999.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    40. 40 Bubba Biscuit says:

      [quote name=Josh]I’ll do it for $99,999.[/quote]
      Well shit, there goes all my hopes and dreams.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    41. 41 Rice Cube says:

      Damn the Canucks suck.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    42. 42 Rice Cube says:

      77 pitches through 4 IP for Z. Wow.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    43. 43 Rice Cube says:

      Methinks Z just lost any chance of getting to the ASG.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    44. 44 Bubba Biscuit says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]Methinks Z just lost any chance of getting to the ASG.[/quote]
      Just as well, him going to the ASG would give Hobbity McFuckmyassivan more chances to rant about Big Z.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    45. 45 Rice Cube says:

      Did Z just walk? *shock*

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    46. 46 josh says:

      So who will be our all-star rep? Gotta be Marshall or Marmol.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    47. 47 josh says:

      Or Reed Johnson.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    48. 48 Rice Cube says:

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    49. 49 Berselius says:

      REEDZ!

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    50. 50 melissa says:

      In a most unlikely string of events, Z walks, Castro walks, Reed Johnson hits a home run. I bet your spreadsheets didn’t predict that. (dying laughing)

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    51. 51 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=melissa]In a most unlikely string of events, Z walks, Castro walks, Reed Johnson hits a home run. I bet your spreadsheets didn’t predict that. (dying laughing)[/quote]
      Forgot to carry the 1.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    52. 52 melissa says:

      Reed Johnson has shown the other Cubs hitters a blueprint for success, the question is, will they follow it?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    53. 53 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=melissa]Reed Johnson has shown the other Cubs hitters a blueprint for success, the question is, will they follow it?[/quote]
      Nope.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    54. 54 Berselius says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]Forgot to carry the i.[/quote]
      Fixed.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    55. 55 josh says:

      [quote name=melissa]Reed Johnson has shown the other Cubs hitters a blueprint for success, the question is, will they follow it?[/quote]Yes, but they’ll read it upside down.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    56. 56 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Josh]Yes, but they’ll read it upside down.[/quote]
      That would explain the strikeouts.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    57. 57 bubblesdachimp says:

      Serious question… Does Reed or Baker have trade value…

      Both seem to be hitting lefties at an insane rate…

      I was against reed being on the team over fernando but i assume he has already paid for his salary barring an 0-300 in WAR

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    58. 58 ACT says:

      Stop making errors, Starlin.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    59. 59 josh says:

      [quote name=ACT]Stop making errors, Starlin.[/quote]Yeah, he’s very atheltic, but he’s kind of a painful short stop. There has to be a better position for him.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    60. 60 ACT says:

      Yeah, like DH.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    61. 61 ACT says:

      Just venting there.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    62. 62 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Josh]Yeah, he’s very atheltic, but he’s kind of a painful short stop. There has to be a better position for him.[/quote]
      He’s also just 21. I’d give him till the end of next season and then think about a position switch after that. He should improve.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    63. 63 josh says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]He’s also just 21. I’d give him till the end of next season and then think about a position switch after that. He should improve.[/quote]Yeah, I think that’s true. There have been a lot of wild shortstops who settled in after a couple of seasons, if they decide to keep him there. I think he’s shown improvement over last year.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    64. 64 Rice Cube says:

      So giving up a hit to Yuni is grounds for execution, right?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    65. 65 josh says:

      I’m not worried yet. We have LaTroy Hawkins in the bullpen. He’s always good for six or seven runs allowed.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    66. 66 Rice Cube says:

      Baserunners would be good here.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    67. 67 ACT says:

      Letting Baker face a righty? Are they saving Pena for something?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    68. 68 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=ACT]Letting Baker face a righty? Are they saving Pena for something?[/quote]
      Late inning defensive replacement.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    69. 69 Rice Cube says:

      They should just DFA Grabow.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    70. 70 josh says:

      You misspelled “shoot.”

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    71. 71 Bubba Biscuit says:

      [quote name=bubblesdachimp]Serious question… Does Reed or Baker have trade value…

      Both seem to be hitting lefties at an insane rate…

      I was against reed being on the team over fernando but i assume he has already paid for his salary barring an 0-300 in WAR[/quote]
      Baker, in part because he can play many positions, yes. He does absolutely smash lefties and shouldn’t bat against righties as mb said in his season preview ( I think it was mb). Baker could make sense for a team needing a platoon guy. He should be worth .5 to 1 WAR over the rest of the season and is getting paid $1.175 Mil this season. So, depending on when he is moved, he could be worth $1.5 M to $4 M, but I see $1.5 M to $2 M as his most likely return if the Cubs move him.

      Reed, not so much. A 4th or 5th outfielder ideally on a contending team has already accumulated the WAR he was supposed to get for the full season. Paid $900k this season, looks to be replacement level to .3 WAR the rest of the season. UZR is hating his defense this season and Reed will continue to be an injury risk the rest of the season. His platoon splits are not as large as Baker’s. He doesn’t smash lefties like Baker, so he has less value as a platoon hitter then Baker. I don’t see Reed going anywhere as he has no surplus value.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    72. 72 Rice Cube says:

      Rickie Weeks is a BABIP killer.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    73. 73 Rice Cube says:

      (dying laughing) @ Pat Hughes making fat joke

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    74. 74 Mish says:

      [quote name=Berselius]Fixed.[/quote]Imaginary number joke?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    75. 75 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      What do you have against brisket, b?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    76. 76 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      Tell me more about this smoked brisket sandwich, MO.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    77. 77 mb21 says:

      Ryno wants to talk about some guy’s meat.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    78. 78 Mish says:

      [quote name=mb21]Ryno wants some guy’s meat.[/quote]
      fify

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    79. 79 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=Jame Gumb]Tell me more about this smoked brisket sandwich, MO.[/quote]Friday, we had a BBQ competition: our dept. vs. the education dept. 8 briskets. Friday, we trimmed and rubbed, Saturday evening, we fired up the massive smoking rig (it’s made from 3 propane tanks, cut and welded into two massive fireboxes attached to the actual grills), injected the meat (we used a modified bordelaise sauce, they cheated and used FAB), and then smoked from 8 that night until 1 p.m. on Sunday. We all used the same wood, a mix of alder, apple, and hickory, in both chunks and chips. We soaked our wood, they didn’t. I used the large chunks to bring the heat up and then handfuls of chips every 30-40 minutes to keep it a steady 225, and we had a much better smoke ring and more smoke flavor through the meat. Predictably, the folks used to tasting real barbecue chose our brisket, but the majority of voters went for the FAB-injected beef. Both were good, and I think when we combine the recipes, we’ll have a winner.

      Anyhoo, all that to say I ate the last of what I took home after it was all over, as a sandwich.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    80. 81 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      I still can’t get over Ricketts’ inane “I never considered hiring a baseball guy” comment. He’s so lost, he doesn’t even know he’s lost

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    81. 82 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=Mish]Ryno, I see your R + RBI love and raise you OPS + RBI, or OPSBIs.

      http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/espn_jim_bowden_simple_stats_to_evaluate_teams_players/#When:09:40:15Z/quoteKeep smurfing.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    82. 83 Mish says:

      I’ll give Bowden credit for responding to the comments in his thread, but that’s about it. The rest is so logically incoherent:

      http://espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post/_/id/389/simple-stats-to-evaluate-teams-players#comments

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    83. 84 Mish says:

      [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I still can’t get over Ricketts’ inane “I never considered hiring a baseball guy” comment. He’s so lost, he doesn’t even know he’s lost[/quote]
      Most of his comments are asinine. I don’t have much of a problem with the Hendry vote of confidence, since the vote is usually the sign of an axe coming and even if not, the organization’s issues run deeper. But every single response had me thinking “this guy has no fucking idea”.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    84. 85 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=mb21]Ryno wants to talk about some guy’s meat.[/quote]
      You’re right, but Mish is wrong. I want my own.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    85. 86 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Friday, we had a BBQ competition: our dept. vs. the education dept. 8 briskets. Friday, we trimmed and rubbed, Saturday evening, we fired up the massive smoking rig (it’s made from 3 propane tanks, cut and welded into two massive fireboxes attached to the actual grills), injected the meat (we used a modified bordelaise sauce, they cheated and used FAB), and then smoked from 8 that night until 1 p.m. on Sunday. We all used the same wood, a mix of alder, apple, and hickory, in both chunks and chips. We soaked our wood, they didn’t. I used the large chunks to bring the heat up and then handfuls of chips every 30-40 minutes to keep it a steady 225, and we had a much better smoke ring and more smoke flavor through the meat. Predictably, the folks used to tasting real barbecue chose our brisket, but the majority of voters went for the FAB-injected beef. Both were good, and I think when we combine the recipes, we’ll have a winner.

      Anyhoo, all that to say I ate the last of what I took home after it was all over, as a sandwich.[/quote]
      Sounds great. Next time you have some smoked brisket, use it in a marinara sauce. Everyone thinks I’m crazy until they try it.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    86. 87 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=Mish]Ryno, I see your R + RBI love and raise you OPS + RBI, or OPSBIs.

      http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/espn_jim_bowden_simple_stats_to_evaluate_teams_players/#When:09:40:15Z/quote
      Too advanced.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    87. 88 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=Mish]Most of his comments are asinine. I don’t have much of a problem with the Hendry vote of confidence, since the vote is usually the sign of an axe coming and even if not, the organization’s issues run deeper. But every single response had me thinking “this guy has no fucking idea”.[/quote]Yeah, he doesn’t seem to understand the difference between running his (according to Chuck, poorly managed) bond trading business and owning the Cubs.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    88. 89 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=Mish]Most of his comments are asinine. I don’t have much of a problem with the Hendry vote of confidence, since the vote is usually the sign of an axe coming and even if not, the organization’s issues run deeper. But every single response had me thinking “this guy has no fucking idea”.[/quote]You know what that interview reminded me of? It reminded me of these students I get, usually 2-3 every term, who never show up for section, or rarely show up, attend lecture spottily, get D’s on the first two exams, and the come in a week before the final wanting to know what they can do to raise their grade. I usually begin asking them a few questions about the readings, what stuck out for them, which readings they had particular problems with, and pretty quickly I can tell they haven’t done any of the readings, and they’re lost, but that doesn’t keep them from trying to talk about the material as if they had read it.

      And that’s the way Ricketts sounds; like a student who hasn’t done one bit of reading and is trying to convince the instructor that not only have they done the reading, they’ve mastered it.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    89. 90 Mish says:

      ^^ Good analogy.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    90. 91 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=Jame Gumb]Sounds great. Next time you have some smoked brisket, use it in a marinara sauce. Everyone thinks I’m crazy until they try it.[/quote]That’s not crazy at all. I’ve used smoked ham hocks in pasta sauces, as well as lamb neck bones. What you really have to try is a sauce called amatriciana. it’s a spicy tomato sauce make with guanciale (smoked pork jowl bacon)

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    91. 92 josh says:

      [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]That’s not crazy at all. I’ve used smoked ham hocks in pasta sauces, as well as lamb neck bones. What you really have to try is a sauce called amatriciana. it’s a spicy tomato sauce make with guanciale (smoked pork jowl bacon)[/quote]I recently made a chili with brisket. It was awesome.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    92. 93 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]That’s not crazy at all. I’ve used smoked ham hocks in pasta sauces, as well as lamb neck bones. What you really have to try is a sauce called amatriciana. it’s a spicy tomato sauce make with guanciale (smoked pork jowl bacon)[/quote]
      Respect.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    93. 94 melissa says:

      [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I still can’t get over Ricketts’ inane “I never considered hiring a baseball guy” comment. He’s so lost, he doesn’t even know he’s lost[/quote]
      Bruce Miles just said something very similar on the radio. In regard to his baseball guy remarks he thinks Tommy Boy doesn’t know enough to understand what he doesn’t know.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    94. 95 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=melissa]Bruce Miles just said something very similar on the radio. In regard to his baseball guy remarks he thinks Tommy Boy doesn’t know enough to understand what he doesn’t know.[/quote]Yeah, I imagine for people like Miles, who have been around the game for decades, that interview had to have been almost shocking in certain ways.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    95. 96 josh says:

      [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yeah, I imagine for people like Miles, who have been around the game for decades, that interview had to have been almost shocking in certain ways.[/quote]That’s exactly what people have been saying since they heard how much the Ricketts dropped for the team. I’ve been hearing that they overpaid since the day the deal was done. An ESPN analyst predicted higher ticket prices and a long term losing team because the deal was so bad. We could be on the cusp of a Pirates-esque decline in the franchise.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    96. 97 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=Josh]That’s exactly what people have been saying since they heard how much the Ricketts dropped for the team. I’ve been hearing that they overpaid since the day the deal was done. An ESPN analyst predicted higher ticket prices and a long term losing team because the deal was so bad. We could be on the cusp of a Pirates-esque decline in the franchise.[/quote]I think the Cubs will look a lot like the Orioles for a good long while.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    97. 98 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      Melissa, was that on Mully and Hanley?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    98. 99 Mish says:

      Also, I’m going to the Cubs game today for work. I’m really only going for Lloyd and the Planet formerly known as Prince Fielder.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    99. 100 melissa says:

      [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Melissa, was that on Mully and Hanley?[/quote]
      Yes but it was Hanley and Rozner. It was between 7:30 & 8:00. They’ll probably post it on the website.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    100. 101 GBTS says:

      Don’t forget Greinke, Mish.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    101. 102 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=melissa]Yes but it was Hanley and Rozner. It was between 7:30 & 8:00. They’ll probably post it on the website.[/quote]Thanks. I’ll have to check it out.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    102. 103 Mish says:

      [quote name=GBTS]Don’t forget Greinke, Mish.[/quote]

      Ooo he’s pitching? Everything’s coming up Milhouse (except for seeing the Iowa Cubs play).

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    103. 104 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=GBTS]Don’t forget Blake DeWitt’s epic battle with gravity in LF, Mish.[/quote]
      Q’d.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    104. 105 GBTS says:

      Can someone go read Sullivan’s recap from last night and tell me a single thing that happened besides Zambrano’s poor start?

      Seriously, one thing that happened on the field.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    105. 106 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=GBTS]Can someone go read Sullivan’s recap from last night and tell me a single thing that happened besides Zambrano’s poor start?

      Seriously, one thing that happened on the field.[/quote]The whole column is about Z being bad, and more palaver about Z’s comments, and then Sully closes by pouting because everyone got behind Z, despite Sully’s best efforts to manufacture a controversy.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    106. 107 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=GBTS]Can someone go read Sullivan’s recap from last night and tell me a single thing that happened besides Zambrano’s poor start?

      Seriously, one thing that happened on the field.[/quote]
      I heard there were errors. And at some point the bullpen kept failing.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    107. 108 Mish says:

      [quote name=GBTS]Can someone go read Sullivan’s recap from last night and tell me a single thing that happened besides Zambrano’s poor start?

      Seriously, one thing that happened on the field.[/quote]
      Rogers included this in his piece:

      3. Carlos Zambrano’s pitching line since saying the Cubs were playing like a Triple-A team: 12 1-3 IP, 16 H, 12 R, 12 ER, 9 BB, 11 SO. Fits right in, huh?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    108. 109 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    109. 110 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=Mish]Rogers included this in his piece:

      3. Carlos Zambrano’s pitching line since saying the Cubs were playing like a Triple-A team: 12 1-3 IP, 16 H, 12 R, 12 ER, 9 BB, 11 SO. Fits right in, huh?[/quote]They just love to pile on him. I wonder why kind of of pathetic life these guys lead.

      I mean there must be something in their life that makes them such spiteful cunts.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    110. 112 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Mish]http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=15945629&partnerId=aw-5407335468519497232-996[/quote]
      I thought at first that it was a glove. Way to MacGyver it to get the souvenir.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    111. 113 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I still can’t get over Ricketts’ inane “I never considered hiring a baseball guy” comment. He’s so lost, he doesn’t even know he’s lost[/quote]For Kenney’s role? I’ve never understood why people think you have a baseball guy to be in an MLB front office. Sandy Alderson wasn’t a baseball guy and he hired another guy who wasn’t a baseball guy to indoctrinate Billy Beane. Neither is Andrew Friedman. I’m all for replacing Kenney, but I couldn’t care less if it’s a baseball guy. I don’t care if the non-baseball guy they hire to replace him hires another non-baseball guy to replace Hendry. In an era when more non-baseball guys are entering the game as analysts, it doesn’t make sense to restrict yourself to a baseball guy.

      You know I don’t like Ricketts and do not have high hopes for this organization, but to be completely honest, that’s the only fucking comment from him since he bought the team that gives me any reason to think this organization may turn it around. That’s he’s not limiting the pool of potential executives isn’t a problem. It’s a damn smart thing to do.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    112. 114 Berselius says:

      [quote name=Jame Gumb]What do you have against brisket, b?[/quote]
      I don’t know, it’s just not what I think of when I think of bbq. I grew up on carolina pulled pork, and now I’m obsessed with Salt Lick’s smoked sausage. It’s probably just that I haven’t had a Holy Shit brisket yet. I had some Rudy’s a while back thanks to GW and I liked their brisket better than Salt Lick’s but it’s still not my go-to bbq meat.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    113. 115 Berselius says:

      [quote name=mb21]For Kenney’s role? I’ve never understood why people think you have a baseball guy to be in an MLB front office. Sandy Alderson wasn’t a baseball guy and he hired another guy who wasn’t a baseball guy to indoctrinate Billy Beane. Neither is Andrew Friedman. I’m all for replacing Kenney, but I couldn’t care less if it’s a baseball guy. I don’t care if the non-baseball guy they hire to replace him hires another non-baseball guy to replace Hendry. In an era when more non-baseball guys are entering the game as analysts, it doesn’t make sense to restrict yourself to a baseball guy.

      You know I don’t like Ricketts and do not have high hopes for this organization, but to be completely honest, that’s the only fucking comment from him since he bought the team that gives me any reason to think this organization may turn it around. That’s he’s not limiting the pool of potential executives isn’t a problem. It’s a damn smart thing to do.[/quote]
      What does Kenney have to do with baseball now anyway? The team president should be someone who knows how to deal with the business-side stuff he’s been tasked with – namely the Triangle buliding, new ST facilities, etc. If/when they get rid of Kenney they should replace him with someone who knows where the bodies are buried in Chicago.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    114. 116 mb21 says:

      There’s a lot of bright people in the world. Many of them are more capable of running an MLB team than the dumbasses who work for MLB teams. If I ran a team, I wouldn’t even bother looking for the likes of a baseball guy. It would be much easier to find an intelligent person to run my team if I opened the position up to include some of the brightest minds that are interested in being involved with baseball.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    115. 117 Berselius says:

      [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]You know what that interview reminded me of? It reminded me of these students I get, usually 2-3 every term, who never show up for section, or rarely show up, attend lecture spottily, get D’s on the first two exams, and the come in a week before the final wanting to know what they can do to raise their grade. I usually begin asking them a few questions about the readings, what stuck out for them, which readings they had particular problems with, and pretty quickly I can tell they haven’t done any of the readings, and they’re lost, but that doesn’t keep them from trying to talk about the material as if they had read it.

      And that’s the way Ricketts sounds; like a student who hasn’t done one bit of reading and is trying to convince the instructor that not only have they done the reading, they’ve mastered it.[/quote]
      (dying laughing), you’re much better at this than I am. I usually have to resort to breaking down the numbers for them and watching them try to pretend that they can score 95+ percent on the remaining exams.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    116. 118 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=Berselius]I don’t know, it’s just not what I think of when I think of bbq. I grew up on carolina pulled pork, and now I’m obsessed with Salt Lick’s smoked sausage. It’s probably just that I haven’t had a Holy Shit brisket yet. I had some Rudy’s a while back thanks to GW and I liked their brisket better than Salt Lick’s but it’s still not my go-to bbq meat.[/quote]
      Well you’re in Texas now, so you have to consider brisket BBQ.

      Franklin’s is probably the best you’ll get near campus/downtown, but you should consider taking 183 south to Lockhart.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    117. 119 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Berselius]What does Kenney have to do with baseball now anyway? The team president should be someone who knows how to deal with the business-side stuff he’s been tasked with – namely the Triangle buliding, new ST facilities, etc. If/when they get rid of Kenney they should replace him with someone who knows where the bodies are buried in Chicago.[/quote]Agreed. If I looked at only team presidents or whatever Kenney’s title is, very few would be baseball guys. I believe there are 3 non-baseball guys who are general managers now. That’s 10%. It’s only going to increase. I wouldn’t be surprised if some team hired a manager who wasn’t a so-called baseball guy. If we looked at the position higher than the GM, I’d be surprised if 10% are baseball guys.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    118. 120 Berselius says:

      [quote name=mb21]Agreed. If I looked at only team presidents or whatever Kenney’s title is, very few would be baseball guys. I believe there are 3 non-baseball guys who are general managers now. That’s 10%. It’s only going to increase. I wouldn’t be surprised if some team hired a manager who wasn’t a so-called baseball guy. If we looked at the position higher than the GM, I’d be surprised if 10% are baseball guys.[/quote]
      I think the term “baseball guy” came out of guys like MacPhail and DeWitt whose families all ran baseball teams in the 50s. None of them had Baseball Experience either when they started.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    119. 121 mb21 says:

      I want the Cubs to become a progressive organization. Two of the most progressive organizations are the A’s and Rays. Both team’s have been hugely impacted by non-baseball guys. The executives who made decisions had the balls to look elsewhere and they were right. There is no reason at all to limit the number of potential employees. There aren’t that many baseball guys. And most of them are retards.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    120. 122 mb21 says:

      How long do you have to work in baseball to be a baseball guy? That’s the whole problem with such terminology. Sandy Alderson wasn’t a baseball guy, but I would guess he’d be considered one by now. What about Andrew Friedman? He hasn’t even been doing this for a decade. He’s not been involved with a baseball team much longer than Kenney has.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    121. 123 Mish says:

      FWIW, the sentiment is more anti-Kenney than pro-Dombrowski/Gillick/whoever you want to name. I don’t think it needs to be someone who’s deemed a “baseball guy”; when we were discussing Friedman the other day, I stopped short of pointing out he had no MLB experience but was really intelligent and understood financial and business competition/advantages, and that there are likely a ton more of him working in corporate America.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    122. 125 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=mb21]How long do you have to work in baseball to be a baseball guy?[/quote]
      Probably a couple of weeks.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    123. 126 mb21 says:

      Exactly, Mish. There are a hell of a lot more Friedman’s out there than there are good “baseball guy” GMs or team presidents. The Cubs would be very smart to go the same route they did if they can’t hire Friedman.

      [quote name=Jame Gumb]Probably a couple of weeks.[/quote](dying laughing) then Kenney is a seasoned baseball guy by now.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    124. 127 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=mb21]I wouldn’t be surprised if some team hired a manager who wasn’t a so-called baseball guy. [/quote]
      I heard Lisa Simpson and her laptop were available.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    125. 128 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]I heard Lisa Simpson and her laptop were available.[/quote]
      She’s a fucking statfag.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    126. 129 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Jame Gumb]She’s a fucking statfag.[/quote]
      Wouldn’t she be a statdyke?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    127. 130 Rice Cube says:

      Who is a bigger nerdfaget…Calcaterra for actually making a spectacular Star Trek captain analogy here, or me for actually knowing what the hell he’s talking about?

      Q: Compare major league managers to Star Trek characters.

      I’ll let someone else make a list because that’s what comments sections are made for, but I know for certain that Tony La Russa is Captain Edward Jellico, who briefly took over the Enterprise when Picard was on a secret mission on Cardassia. Stern, difficult, and insists on his unorthodox manner to such a degree that he alienates even the most useful members of his crew (Riker, who is roughly equivalent to Scott Rolen for these purposes). But in the end? Effective, and we just have to reconcile that.

      And yes, I preempted the fagethood.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    128. 131 Rice Cube says:

      (live long and dying laughing)

      Q: Who’d be the best MLB’er? Data, Worf or Geordi?

      Data, but all the MSM writers would disparage him because of his analytic approach to the game. They’d love Worf because of his passion.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    129. 132 josh says:

      I honestly don’t know who the hell they should hire. I have no idea. I just know whatever they’ve been doing hasn’t worked worth a shit. For all I know, Jim Hendry is the best general manager who has ever general managed. Maybe if you follow him around day-to-day and listen to the way he makes deals, you’d be blown away by his intelligence and acumen. Perhaps given the choices he’s been able to make, he has, 85% of the time, say, made not only a good choice but the best choice and in a way that was better than anyone else could do it.

      The fact remains that the team blows ass. If a new guy came in and said “DFAing Soriano would be a mistake for the following reasons…” then I’m 100% more likely to hear him out than if Jim said the exact same thing.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    130. 133 josh says:

      Doesn’t always work though. Rudy Jaramillo was an exciting acquisition until the Cubs didn’t hit any better than they did before.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    131. 134 The Wreckard says:

      Oh man, I just saw this. Totally not petty at all, Phil:
      http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-your-morning-phil-hendry-pierzynski-big-z-20110616,0,182289.story

      Carlos Zambrano’s pitching line since saying the Cubs were playing like a Triple-A team: 12 1-3 IP, 16 H, 12 R, 12 ER, 9 BB, 11 SO. Fits right in, huh?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    132. 135 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Josh]Doesn’t always work though. Rudy Jaramillo was an exciting acquisition until the Cubs didn’t hit any better than they did before.[/quote]
      I don’t think that the hitting coach can help guys suddenly learn how to hit. He can fix their swings a bit and find mechanical flaws that could be corrected, but otherwise most of the hitting comes from the hitter’s own talent. Of which, on this team, there is little.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    133. 136 josh says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]I don’t think that the hitting coach can help guys suddenly learn how to hit. He can fix their swings a bit and find mechanical flaws that could be corrected, but otherwise most of the hitting comes from the hitter’s own talent. Of which, on this team, there is little.[/quote]You could argue that the team management can only try to enhance the options they have available. I don’t know how true that is, or how much a good management system can create opportunities. My point was new leadership doesn’t necessarily win games, but like a good batting coach, maybe they can maximize the return.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    134. 137 josh says:

      If you want a model for consistent winning, wouldn’t it be the Phillies? Their method is to buy really good pitching and grow hitters in house.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    135. 138 Mish says:

      From the vancouver riots

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    136. 139 Rice Cube says:

      Holy shit (dying laughing)

      http://www.lettersofnote.com/2011/06/special-instructions-to-players.html

      Those old-timey guys were pretty foul-mouthed.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    137. 140 Bubba Biscuit says:

      Oops

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    138. 141 Rice Cube says:

      I thought the idea was that you built everything in house and then you only buy the pieces that you need to fill certain holes in the pitching and the lineup. Otherwise it gets Yankees-expensive.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    139. 142 Bubba Biscuit says:

      [quote name=Josh]If you want a model for consistent winning, wouldn’t it be the Phillies? Their method is to buy really good pitching and grow hitters in house.[/quote]
      This model is wrong, very wrong. Work is causing my baseball work to become heavily delayed, but this is at the root of it. You are handing out the most amounts of money to the riskiest bets in baseball, starting pitchers staying healthy. On top of that, every single team in the MLB right now thinks an Ace pitcher is needed to contend and win championships meaning a very unbalanced supply & demand marketplace driving the prices up on Aces and creating undervalued assets elsewhere. Can you get Ace production without the Ace price tag? I think you can and my work is on that subject.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    140. 143 ACT says:

      RF Fukudome

      SS Castro

      2B DeWitt

      3B Ramirez

      1B Pena

      LF Soriano

      C Soto

      CF Campana

      P Garza

      No, that’s not a typo. DeWitt is the number 3 hitter.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    141. 144 Berselius says:

      I meant to write this last night, but “a list of tags that includes the name of each and every cubs player this season” got a literal (dying laughing) from me last night.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    142. 145 josh says:

      [quote name=Bubba Biscuit]This model is wrong, very wrong. Work is causing my baseball work to become heavily delayed, but this is at the root of it. You are handing out the most amounts of money to the riskiest bets in baseball, starting pitchers staying healthy. On top of that, every single team in the MLB right now thinks an Ace pitcher is needed to contend and win championships meaning a very unbalanced supply & demand marketplace driving the prices up on Aces and creating undervalued assets elsewhere. Can you get Ace production without the Ace price tag? I think you can and my work is on that subject.[/quote]I was just thinking that the Giants maybe are an even better model — most of their pitchers are homegrown and they basically don’t care about offense. It seems like heavily offense-oriented teams without good pitching suffer the same fate over and over again: killer records in the regular season, absolute fizzle in post season. Maybe pitchers are overvalued on the open market, but that just means the Cubs should focus on investing into their pitchers in the farm system. One amazing hitter can’t save a team, or the Cards would have won ten years in a row.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    143. 146 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Berselius]I meant to write this last night, but “a list of tags that includes the name of each and every cubs player this season” got a literal (dying laughing) from me last night.[/quote]It’s sure to be the most popular tag here.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    144. 147 josh says:

      [quote name=ACT]RF Fukudome

      SS Castro

      2B DeWitt

      3B Ramirez

      1B Pena

      LF Soriano

      C Soto

      CF Campana

      P Garza

      No, that’s not a typo. DeWitt is the number 3 hitter.[/quote]Q: PLEASE GOD SOMEONE DRIVE IN RUNS!

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    145. 148 GW says:

      [quote name=Josh]I was just thinking that the Giants maybe are an even better model — most of their pitchers are homegrown and they basically don’t care about offense. It seems like heavily offense-oriented teams without good pitching suffer the same fate over and over again: killer records in the regular season, absolute fizzle in post season. Maybe pitchers are overvalued on the open market, but that just means the Cubs should focus on investing into their pitchers in the farm system. One amazing hitter can’t save a team, or the Cards would have won ten years in a row.[/quote]
      tinstaapp. also, there is no difference between a run saved and a run scored.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    146. 149 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Josh]I was just thinking that the Giants maybe are an even better model — most of their pitchers are homegrown and they basically don’t care about offense. It seems like heavily offense-oriented teams without good pitching suffer the same fate over and over again: killer records in the regular season, absolute fizzle in post season. Maybe pitchers are overvalued on the open market, but that just means the Cubs should focus on investing into their pitchers in the farm system. One amazing hitter can’t save a team, or the Cards would have won ten years in a row.[/quote]The playoffs are mostly just about luck. You have to build your team to win over 162 games. There’s still luck involved even in that sample, but a great team can get swept. Season over. A great team is very likely to find itself in contention and most likely in the playoffs.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    147. 150 mb21 says:

      [quote name=GW]tinstaapp. also, there is no difference between a run saved and a run scored.[/quote]Agreed. For all the great hitting, no pitching teams that didn’t win we find examples of great pitching, no hitting teams that didn’t win. The Atlanta Braves won only one title despite having the best rotation almost every single season.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    148. 151 Bubba Biscuit says:

      [quote name=mb21]Agreed. For all the great hitting, no pitching teams that didn’t win we find examples of great pitching, no hitting teams that didn’t win. The Atlanta Braves won only one title despite having the best rotation almost every single season.[/quote]
      Nailed it, you have to plan for the season and hope to get lucky in the playoffs as it is too short and anything can happen. Going to one extreme or the other is a mixed bag. The idea is to see an opportunity in the market and use it to your advantage before the market corrects that imbalance.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    149. 152 josh says:

      [quote name=mb21]Agreed. For all the great hitting, no pitching teams that didn’t win we find examples of great pitching, no hitting teams that didn’t win. The Atlanta Braves won only one title despite having the best rotation almost every single season.[/quote]All right, but if post season reaching is the goal and post season success pure chance, then by that measure the Braves had a decade of awesome teams based around the best rotation around.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    150. 153 The Wreckard says:

      [quote name=Bubba Biscuit]This model is wrong, very wrong. Work is causing my baseball work to become heavily delayed, but this is at the root of it. You are handing out the most amounts of money to the riskiest bets in baseball, starting pitchers staying healthy. On top of that, every single team in the MLB right now thinks an Ace pitcher is needed to contend and win championships meaning a very unbalanced supply & demand marketplace driving the prices up on Aces and creating undervalued assets elsewhere. Can you get Ace production without the Ace price tag? I think you can and my work is on that subject.[/quote]
      I was going to reply to that and say that the Phillies have gotten lucky with injuries.

      On the other hand, the resources that they’ve committed the most to (Hallady and Lee) are also two proven durable starters.

      Though I suppose even a durable starter is one injury away from the end of his career.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    151. 154 Bubba Biscuit says:

      No one way will work for very long, the Braves did an amazing job getting to the playoffs all those years, but the short series allows for too much randomness and they got unlucky. Imagine getting a pitching staff putting up near league leading numbers for around one to two times Halladay’s $20 M this season, then use the savings on hitters.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    152. 155 Bubba Biscuit says:

      [quote name=The Wreckard]I was going to reply to that and say that the Phillies have gotten lucky with injuries.

      On the other hand, the resources that they’ve committed the most to (Hallady and Lee) are also two proven durable starters.

      Though I suppose even a durable starter is one injury away from the end of his career.[/quote]
      I think Halladay & Lee should stay healthy, but yes anything can happen. Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Rich Harden, Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Strasburg???, Ben Sheets, etc. Starters injuries may not be career enders, but they can easily knock them out of ace status.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    153. 156 josh says:

      [quote name=Bubba Biscuit]I think they got some guys who should stay healthy, but yes anything can happen. Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Rich Harden, Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Strasburg???, Ben Sheets, etc. Starters injuries may not be career enders, but they can easily knock them out of ace status.[/quote]If it’s foolish to spend too much on pitching, and too hard to ensure you can get good pitching from your farm system, then do you just have to rely on luck? Obviously there’s always some luck involved, but surely there are good strategies that have proven to work to build pitching staffs. Maybe not. I can’t think of very many teams that always have awesome pitching where they didn’t buy it.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    154. 157 Bubba Biscuit says:

      [quote name=Josh]If it’s foolish to spend too much on pitching, and too hard to ensure you can get good pitching from your farm system, then do you just have to rely on luck? Obviously there’s always some luck involved, but surely there are good strategies that have proven to work to build pitching staffs. Maybe not. I can’t think of very many teams that always have awesome pitching where they didn’t buy it.[/quote]
      Well, there is no good strategy that has been tried yet. The Braves bought it and got good health out of those guys for a long time, but that is the exception or luck. Think of the Santana trade, Peavy trade, Greinke trade, hell even the dumbass Garza trade, teams know the supply of Aces are low and you are seeing teams having to trade players plus pay about what they would get in free agency for these guys, that is laying a lot out on them. If they go down for a season with an injury, it effects the whole team. Cardinals are still doing ok without Wainwright this year, but that was a big blow to them and probably keeps them short of the Brewers this year. Imagine any contending team losing their #1 or #2 pitcher for the season. It is so competitive, that likely costs them a playoff spot.

      Relying on great pitching in the modern 5-man rotation is hoping to get lucky each year and paying a hefty premium to increase your odds.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    155. 159 josh says:

      I see your point.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    156. 160 Rice Cube says:

      Cubs lose.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    157. 161 josh says:

      No, no Grienke is terrible now. We’ll be fine.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    158. 162 Rice Cube says:

      Kosuke shut me right up. It’s April 77th.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    159. 163 Rice Cube says:

      Castro also shut me right up.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    160. 164 josh says:

      Prediction: Soriano hits 4 homeruns today.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    161. 165 Rice Cube says:

      Thank goodness for that passed ball, because Pena struck out (dying laughing)

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    162. 166 ZappBrannigan says:

      Castro could hit 40-45 doubles this season

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    163. 167 josh says:

      Garza….doing good today….

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    164. 168 Rice Cube says:

      HR/FB normalizing.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    165. 169 mb21 says:

      4-2 already? What the hell did I miss?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    166. 170 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=mb21]4-2 already? What the hell did I miss?[/quote]
      Ryan Braun 2-run homer.

      Castro doubled in Fukudome and scored on a passed ball.

      Kottaras (?!) 2-run homer.

      And…scene.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    167. 171 josh says:

      I did some quick calculations and at this rate, the score will be 18-18 by the 9th inning.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    168. 172 Rice Cube says:

      This would be a hilarious time for Tony Campana to get his first MLB HR.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    169. 173 mb21 says:

      The Yankees were an incredibly balanced team from 1996 to 2000. Over those 5 years, only Braves and Red Sox had more pitcher WAR. They were 5th in ERA and 4th in FIP. Only the Indians had more batting WAR than the Yankees. They were 4th in wOBA and 3rd in wRC. Their defense was pretty bad, but offensively and pitching, they were just good all around. They won 3 World Series.

      We can talk about strong pitching or strong hitting all we want, but the goal MUST be to be good all around.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    170. 174 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]This would be a hilarious time for Tony Campana to get his first MLB HR.[/quote]
      False.

      [quote name=mb21]The Yankees were an incredibly balanced team from 1996 to 2000. Over those 5 years, only Braves and Red Sox had more pitcher WAR. They were 5th in ERA and 4th in FIP. Only the Indians had more batting WAR than the Yankees. They were 4th in wOBA and 3rd in wRC. Their defense was pretty bad, but offensively and pitching, they were just good all around. They won 3 World Series.

      We can talk about strong pitching or strong hitting all we want, but the goal MUST be to be good all around.[/quote]
      They actually won four mb, but the 1996 one was the one I enjoyed most because that’s when I started following Derek Jeter and by association, baseball, more closely.

      That was way too many commas.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    171. 175 Bubba Biscuit says:

      [quote name=mb21]The Yankees were an incredibly balanced team from 1996 to 2000. Over those 5 years, only Braves and Red Sox had more pitcher WAR. They were 5th in ERA and 4th in FIP. Only the Indians had more batting WAR than the Yankees. They were 4th in wOBA and 3rd in wRC. Their defense was pretty bad, but offensively and pitching, they were just good all around. They won 3 World Series.

      We can talk about strong pitching or strong hitting all we want, but the goal MUST be to be good all around.[/quote]
      Yep, and unless you have the Yankees payroll, that means breaking with tradition and finding ways of maximizing value and limiting risk.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    172. 176 josh says:

      Kottaras just broke even.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    173. 177 Rice Cube says:

      It’s still April!!!!

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    174. 178 josh says:

      What’s up with that guy? Did he finally just realize he’s not a power hitter in America and start modeling himself after Ichiro?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    175. 179 Rice Cube says:

      Average speed something something.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    176. 180 josh says:

      “This game has a whacky quality to it.” –Pat Hughes.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    177. 181 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Josh]No, no Grienke is terrible now. We’ll be fine.[/quote]
      Joshstradamus.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    178. 182 ZappBrannigan says:

      This is awesome. Both highly prized FA pitching acquisitions in the NL central are getting lit up, in part due to hilariously bad defense

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    179. 183 Rice Cube says:

      Why couldn’t they do this for Z last night? *grumble*

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    180. 184 jtsunami says:

      Did Casey McGhee play catcher when he was with us? Or was that just Jake Fox?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    181. 185 jtsunami says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]Why couldn’t they do this for Z last night? *grumble*[/quote]His teammates are still mad at him.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    182. 186 jtsunami says:

      Garza looking wild?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    183. 187 josh says:

      [quote name=jtsunami]Garza looking wild?[/quote]I don’t know if he’s wild, but he’s giving up homers at a rate of one per inning.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    184. 188 jtsunami says:

      Pitch f/x is just showing him being all over the place. Anddddd there’s another run.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    185. 189 Rice Cube says:

      That was a pretty “all over the place” walk there.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    186. 190 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]They actually won four mb, but the 1996 one was the one I enjoyed most because that’s when I started following Derek Jeter and by association, baseball, more closely.

      That was way too many commas.[/quote]Yeah, I meant to say 4. I’m just an idiot. I loved those Yankee teams. When you think about homegrown talent a lot of people think about the Marlins, but they should think about the Yankees.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    187. 191 matt says:

      Hey Cubs fans! The Cubs are hosting their first Wrigleyville Block Party this weekend and it sounds like fun. Check out details here http://bit.ly/mHSSE2

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    188. 192 mb21 says:

      [quote name=jtsunami]Did Casey McGhee play catcher when he was with us? Or was that just Jake Fox?[/quote]He was initially a catcher and then moved to 3rd the final season with the Cubs. he may have still played some behind the plate at the time. Can’t remember now.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    189. 193 GW says:

      [quote name=matt]Hey Cubs fans! The Cubs are hosting their first Wrigleyville Block Party this weekend and it sounds like fun. Check out details here http://bit.ly/mHSSE2/quote
      (dying laughing)

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    190. 194 ZappBrannigan says:

      (dying laughing)
      wtf?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    191. 195 Rice Cube says:

      There’s that power.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    192. 196 Aisle424 says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]There’s that routine fly ball that was blown out of the park.[/quote]
      Fixed.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    193. 197 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Aisle424]Fixed.[/quote]
      Don’t you like anything?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    194. 198 Berselius says:

      Just got back from a meeting. I’m guessing the wind is blowing out today (dying laughing)

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    195. 199 Berselius says:

      [quote name=matt]Hey Cubs fans! The Cubs are hosting their first Wrigleyville Block Party this weekend and it sounds like fun. Check out details here http://bit.ly/mHSSE2/quote
      That reminds me, I need to finish up my marketing campaign for W flags and Go Cubs Go CDs. OV is the perfect place to sell them (dying laughing)

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    196. 200 jtsunami says:

      O/U Grienke’s IP: 4.2

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    197. 201 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=jtsunami]O/U Grienke’s IP: 4.2[/quote]
      Garza isn’t far behind…this was not expected (dying laughing)

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    198. 202 josh says:

      [quote name=Berselius]That reminds me, I need to finish up my marketing campaign for W flags and Go Cubs Go CDs. OV is the perfect place to sell them (dying laughing)[/quote]I’ll trade you three of my top prospects for 2.3 of those W flags!!

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    199. 203 GW says:

      Vancouver has established the template for block parties. The question is, can the cubs replicate it?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    200. 204 jtsunami says:

      Uh oh! Could Garza have less than a 12 pitch inning?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    201. 205 Rice Cube says:

      Rickie Weeks loves the TOOTBLAN

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    202. 206 josh says:

      It’s fun listening to the radio guys talk around a ball shot.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    203. 207 GW says:

      somebody get that gif

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    204. 208 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Josh]It’s fun listening to the radio guys talk around a ball shot.[/quote]
      Is that why there’s an on-field delay? Foul ball off the nuts?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    205. 209 josh says:

      Umpire took a shot, yup.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    206. 210 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Josh]Umpire took a shot, yup.[/quote]
      He should’ve worn a bigger cup.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    207. 211 melissa says:

      [quote name=Berselius]That reminds me, I need to finish up my marketing campaign for W flags and Go Cubs Go CDs. OV is the perfect place to sell them (dying laughing)[/quote]
      Don’t forget your, “It’s Gonna Happen,” signs. They will go like hotcakes around here.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    208. 212 jtsunami says:

      OMG Castro has two walks. I think it’s the first time ever.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    209. 213 AndCounting says:

      [quote name=jtsunami]OMG Castro has two walks. I think it’s the first time ever.[/quote]Seems like he’s been much more patient lately AND hitting with more pop. Nice little combo.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    210. 214 Berselius says:

      [quote name=GW]Vancouver has established the template for block parties. The question is, can the cubs replicate it?[/quote]
      (dying laughing), I’m going to Vancouver next month and just got a travel advisory from the university about civil unrest (dying laughing) (dying laughing)

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    211. 215 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), I’m going to Vancouver next month and just got a travel advisory from the university about civil unrest (dying laughing) (dying laughing)[/quote]
      They’ve declared war on automobiles.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    212. 216 jtsunami says:

      Sparkling Nyjers

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    213. 217 Rice Cube says:

      Levine floating the Z—> Yankees rumor again.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    214. 218 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Berselius]That reminds me, I need to finish up my marketing campaign for W flags and Go Cubs Go CDs. OV is the perfect place to sell them (dying laughing)[/quote]I’d like to order a dozen.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    215. 219 Berselius says:

      [quote name=mb21]I’d like to order a dozen.[/quote]
      I only accept orders via fax.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    216. 220 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), I’m going to Vancouver next month and just got a travel advisory from the university about civil unrest (dying laughing) (dying laughing)[/quote]Do not schedule a trip to Kansas. It seems everywhere you’re scheduled to be gets fucked up. First Japan and now Vancouver.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    217. 221 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]Levine floating the Z—> Yankees rumor again.[/quote]That would be nice. Did Levine write an article about it?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    218. 222 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Berselius]I only accept orders via fax.[/quote]@ 1-888-4OV-BLOG?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    219. 223 Rice Cube says:

      Yeah, you can probably write a new blog on this:

      http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/4932/with-n-y-in-town-let-big-z-speculation-begin

      Soriano had an interesting viewpoint about it towards the end of the article.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    220. 224 Berselius says:

      [quote name=Berselius]I only accept orders via fax.[/quote]
      When you send me checks make sure they’re made out to

      Chicago Awesome Sales House

      It’s long, so just write out the abbreviation. And make sure you include your social security number and DOB on it too.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    221. 225 Berselius says:

      (dying laughing), the Cubs are contagious

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    222. 226 Rice Cube says:

      Thank goodness for Yuni (dying laughing)

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    223. 227 josh says:

      Alcides Escobar would have made that play.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    224. 228 Berselius says:

      June Kosuke!

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    225. 229 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Berselius]April 77th Kosuke![/quote]
      /424′d

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    226. 230 josh says:

      Kosuke is one hit away from a statistical anomoly!

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    227. 231 Aisle424 says:

      Fukudome now a double short of the cycle.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    228. 232 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Josh]Kosuke is one hit away from a statistical anomoly![/quote]
      He should hit a homer and stop at second.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    229. 233 WenningtonsGorillaCock says:

      Pat Hughes: “the feet are connected to the nose. When you sniff a base hit, you run faster.”

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    230. 234 Rice Cube says:

      Kosuke SLG > OBP

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    231. 236 Rice Cube says:

      Kosuke will only get an AB in the next inning if the Cubs get men on base. Cycle very unlikely.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    232. 237 Berselius says:

      2-day TOOTBLAN streak by Weeks.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    233. 238 josh says:

      Thank you Rickie Weeks. You are always entertaining.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    234. 239 Berselius says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]Kosuke will only get an AB in the next inning if the Cubs get men on base. Cycle very unlikely.[/quote]
      He’ll get one in the 8th

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    235. 240 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Berselius]2-day TOOTBLAN streak by Weeks.[/quote]
      That’s actually his second one today (dying laughing)

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    236. 241 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Berselius]He’ll get one in the 8th[/quote]
      Correct. I thought it was the 8th inning already. Derp.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    237. 242 melissa says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]That’s actually his second one today (dying laughing)[/quote]
      It’s Deja Vu all over again. (dying laughing).

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    238. 243 jtsunami says:

      They needed that second base. Otherwise Morgan couldn’t have hit a 5 run HR.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    239. 244 Berselius says:

      ADOLFO!!

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    240. 245 josh says:

      Well, I don’t think he’ll get four anymore…. But, Sori got one.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    241. 246 bubblesdachimp says:

      Just saaw yellon on that blast

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    242. 247 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=bubblesdachimp]Just saaw yellon on that blast[/quote]
      Was he under a misting station?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    243. 248 melissa says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]Was he under a misting station?[/quote]
      Knock it off. You’ve been warned.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    244. 249 josh says:

      I was thinking of trying to catch a Peoria Chiefs game this season. Are there any good players down there? I saw that Angel Pagan was pitching there.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    245. 250 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Josh]I was thinking of trying to catch a Peoria Chiefs game this season. Are there any good players down there? I saw that Angel Pagan was pitching there.[/quote]
      Hail, Szczur!

      Oh, and also first-round pick Hayden Simpson, who totally deserved to be picked in the first round.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    246. 251 ZappBrannigan says:

      I know it’s meaningless, but it would be cool if Kosuke could hit for the cycle

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    247. 252 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=ZappBrannigan]I know it’s meaningless, but it would be cool if Kosuke could hit for the cycle[/quote]
      This is your fault.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    248. 253 ZappBrannigan says:

      [quote name=Rice Cube]This is your fault.[/quote]
      Clearly the best course of action is to save face and move to Japan.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    249. 254 ZappBrannigan says:

      Castro has the team’s only two walks today. This truly is a sign of the apocalypse.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    250. 255 ZappBrannigan says:

      Sean Marshall for the coveted Fuck-You-Three-Inning-Save?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    251. 256 ACT says:

      [quote name=ZappBrannigan]Castro has the team’s only two walks today. This truly is a sign of the apocalypse.[/quote]Against Greinke, no less!

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    252. 257 ACT says:

      Greinke had 10 strikeouts and 2 walks, good for a 2.77 FIP.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    253. 258 ZappBrannigan says:

      [quote name=ZappBrannigan]Sean Marshall for the coveted Fuck-You-Three-Inning-Save?[/quote]
      It was not meant to be. Instead it’s the always-hilarious “We’re so far ahead we’re putting in John Grabow” inning.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    254. 259 Rice Cube says:

      Will John Grabow piss this whole lead away?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    255. 260 Rice Cube says:

      Giving up a hit to Yuni Betancourt should be considered grounds for DFA (dying laughing)

      /semi-kidding

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    256. 261 ACT says:

      Man, if Grabow forces Marmol come in here, I’ll be pissed.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    257. 262 Rice Cube says:

      I just look at John Grabow and I see a suitcase full of hundreds being blown to bits with a shotgun, then the force of the blast slammng it into a gasoline fire.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    258. 263 ACT says:

      [quote name=ACT]Greinke had 10 strikeouts and 2 walks, good for a 2.77 FIP.[/quote]And a 1.19 xFIP!

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    259. 264 josh says:

      Think the Cubs will resign Kosuke if he continues to play well, or are they just going to be thankful to get a good trade piece? If the Cubs don’t pick up Rami’s contract, how long until he’s officially signed by the Orioles?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    260. 265 ZappBrannigan says:

      [quote name=Josh]Think the Cubs will resign Kosuke if he continues to play well, or are they just going to be thankful to get a good trade piece? If the Cubs don’t pick up Rami’s contract, how long until he’s officially signed by the Orioles?[/quote]
      I don’t think there’s any chance they re-sign Kosuke unless he takes a significant pay-cut. I used to think there was no way it would happen, but with Colvin looking completely lost, they might try to resign him at something like $4 million for one year. I think ultimately whether they resign him depends on:
      1.) How he finishes and what he’s willing to sign for
      2.) If the Cubs have lost all faith in Colvin being a starting major league calliber player
      3.) Timeframe for Jackson and Szczur

      If Ricketts is really going young and slashing payroll then he’s not coming back.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    261. 266 Berselius says:

      [quote name=Josh]Think the Cubs will resign Kosuke if he continues to play well, or are they just going to be thankful to get a good trade piece? If the Cubs don’t pick up Rami’s contract, how long until he’s officially signed by the Orioles?[/quote]
      No, they’ll let him walk and be happy for the payroll space. Even if he has a nice year, he’s 34.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    262. 267 ZappBrannigan says:

      If the Cubs don’t pick up Rami’s contract, how long until he’s officially signed by the Orioles?

      It would be pretty hilarious if they picked him up. Regardless, it wouldn’t surprise me if he were to go the AL to be a DH. If he stays in the NL, it’s going to be with a seriously offensively challenged team like the Padres.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    263. 268 The Wreckard says:

      [quote name=Josh]Think the Cubs will resign Kosuke if he continues to play well, or are they just going to be thankful to get a good trade piece? If the Cubs don’t pick up Rami’s contract, how long until he’s officially signed by the Orioles?[/quote]The funny thing is that he’s not even playing that much better than normal. Adjust for his inflated BABIP and he’s basically putting up the exactly same numbers as he has in years past.

      And by Fangraph’s measure the combination of bad fielding this year and his completely empty line has him pegged at 0 WAR despite his “strong” start.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    264. 269 ZappBrannigan says:

      [quote name=The Wreckard]The funny thing is that he’s not even playing that much better than normal. Adjust for his inflated BABIP and he’s basically putting up the exactly same numbers as he has in years past.

      And by Fangraph’s measure the combination of bad fielding this year and his completely empty line has him pegged at 0 WAR despite his “strong” start.[/quote]
      I have a hard time with this one… while obviosuly the eye test is a pretty terrible way to evaluate players, I really can’t believe he’s been that bad in the field. Kosuke has always struck me as an average or even plus fielder.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    265. 270 ACT says:

      Kosuke’s fWAR this year is dragged down by his UZR, which is an outlier, both for his career, and compared to other metrics (rWAR has him at 2.1 WAR!). I’m inclined to think he’s more or less average defensively.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    266. 271 ACT says:

      Kosuke is second in the league in Total Zone runs, has a terrible UZR, and an average DRS. His Fan Scouting Reports for the past couple years are slightly above average.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    267. 272 josh says:

      I meant for a paycut for sure. Maybe the paycut scenario is unlikely just in terms of saving face on the market. Re-signing with the same team for a cut is like admitting you’re overpriced. Signing with another team for a cut you can chalk up to them being tough negotiators.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    268. 273 josh says:

      Does what happened with Kosuke pretty much kill any chances the next Japanese star makes any kind of money in MLB?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    269. 274 ZappBrannigan says:

      [quote name=Josh]I meant for a paycut for sure. Maybe the paycut scenario is unlikely just in terms of saving face on the market. Re-signing with the same team for a cut is like admitting you’re overpriced. Signing with another team for a cut you can chalk up to them being tough negotiators.[/quote]
      Yeah, I guess the paycut was implied wasn’t it? (dying laughing). I have no idea what to think about the pride issue with Kosuke; he’s always seemed to be pretty humble but I know there are tremendous expectations for Japanese players that come over here to the United States. It’d be interesting to get a window into see what the Japanese media thinks and how Kosuke is responding to the pressure.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    270. 275 Rice Cube says:

      Kosuke does not believe in your fagety spreadsheets:

      http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=15964567

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    271. 276 Rice Cube says:

      I’m surprised Kosuke got to this one faster than Warp Factor Campana:

      http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=15961111

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    272. 277 mb21 says:

      I’d rather go with the Fans Scouting Report over the available defensive metrics. The new FRAA is pretty good in that it tells us what happened and doesn’t infer as much as the others.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    273. 278 ZappBrannigan says:

      [quote name=Josh]Does what happened with Kosuke pretty much kill any chances the next Japanese star makes any kind of money in MLB?[/quote]
      I don’t think so- there’s been a really mixed series of outcomes with Japanese players here in the United States. Obviously Ichiro sets the bar pretty impossibly high, and some like Nomo and Hideki Matsui have had limited success, but there are quiet a few who didn’t live up to expectations (Dice-K) as well.

      I think the price will go down but I’m sure there will be a few more that will be heralded as the next Ichiro and receive great contracts. I personally don’t have a problem with how much the Cubs paid Kosuke- given how many teams were interested in him the Cubs were going to have to overpay to get him.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    274. 279 ZappBrannigan says:

      [quote name=mb21]I’d rather go with the Fans Scouting Report over the available defensive metrics. The new FRAA is pretty good in that it tells us what happened and doesn’t infer as much as the others.[/quote]
      I haven’t seen that, but it sounds interesting. Do you have a link? I’m too lazy to Google it (dying laughing).

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    275. 280 josh says:

      I like Kosuke. I definitely wouldn’t mind seeing him maybe one more year, if Colvin can’t get it together. If they don’t re-sign Byrd, Colvin could play center, assuming he remembered to bring his bat.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    276. 281 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Josh]I like Kosuke. I definitely wouldn’t mind seeing him maybe one more year, if Colvin can’t get it together. If they don’t re-sign Byrd, Colvin could play center, assuming he remembered to bring his bat.[/quote]
      That’s what Brett Jackson is for.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    277. 282 ACT says:

      [quote name=ZappBrannigan]I haven’t seen that, but it sounds interesting. Do you have a link? I’m too lazy to Google it (dying laughing).[/quote]It’s on Fangraphs player pages. e.g., http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1849&position=2B#fsr

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    278. 283 ACT says:

      Oh, you mean FRAA? never mind.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    279. 285 mb21 says:

      I think he meant the FSR. He can find FRAA on some of the sortable stat pages on Baseball Prospectus.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Leave a Reply

    RSS Obstructed View Forum