The Brewers are willing to offer Zack Greinke around $100 million over 5 years while the Phillies are prepared to offer Cole Hamels an equally large contract extension. Greinke and Hamels were likely going to be the two best starters available at the deadline if their respective teams made them available.
My first thought was that this was potentially good news for the Cubs who figure to be active on the trade front in the coming weeks. If Greinke and Hamels are off the market, Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster might become more appealing.
My second thought was that both teams had explored a trade and didn't like what teams were willing to give up. This could be bad news for the Cubs who hope to better their farm system through the trades they'll make this month.
My next thought was that this was just posturing by the teams. That seems to be the least likely of all I thought about. It would not look good for either team to leak info about long term contracts because if they weren't sincere it probably would piss off the player. However, it's a distinct possibility.
It was easy enough for me to figure out which seemed the most unlikely, but I'm not sure which is the most likely. Let's talk about the other two in more detail.
This could be good news for the Cubs if both were taken off the market. That was my initial thought, but I'm not sure how accurate that is. Dempster and Garza may be the best two pitchers available at that point, but that doesn't mean teams are going to give up more to acquire them. Imagine that Ryan Theriot is the best player available in a trade. Do we really think teams are going to give up a lot to acquire someone like that? It might help the Cubs in that there are fewer arms to acquire, but it also may make teams more content to stand pat knowing their competitors won't get all that much better.
If both the Brewers and Phillies had briefly explored trade options for Greinke and Hamels and found no acceptable offers, this is obviously bad news for the Cubs. They would be unlikely to find what they currently consider an acceptable offer for Garza or Dempster. If either are traded they would more than likely be acquiring less talent in return than they'd hoped. This doesn't mean it's less talent than we've projected they'll receive. It just means it would be less talent than they were expecting.
Both of these seem plausible. It might make guys like Dempster and Garza more appealing though I'm not convinced it means they'll bring more in return. It might also mean the Cubs can expect less than they were intiially expecting. There's still the off chance that this is just posturing though that seems highly unlikely to me.
What do you guys think?
forum question: http://www.obstructedview.net/forum.html?mingleforumaction=viewtopic&t=103.0#postid-1393
mb21 wrote:
I had this same thought when I found out that JC players had that option. I suppose they wouldn’t get as much exposure as playing for a big college, but I guess if you are good scouts will find you. But if you choose to go to a 4-year you can’t enter the draft until you are 21, finished junior year, or senior year.
MB is there a slightly more optimistic way to look at this and say that if Greinke and Hamels are taken off the market, it could improve the market for Dempster and/or Garza because there are fewer options for shopping GMs? I mean, it’s not just a matter of them being the best available options–it’s a matter of them being maybe the only options, or two of a select few. Can’t scarcity drive value up at least a bit?
I guess a shitty market is a shitty market, but we’ve said all along the Cubs just need a GM who is just desperate enough to give them what they want…maybe extensions to Hamels and Grienke drive that kind of desperation?
I don’t know. When the Brewers and Phillies are doing that exploring, they’re looking at a market that almost certainly has Garza and Dempster in it, and maybe seeing Garza and Dempster as bringing down the price of what they’re shopping. Hamels and Greinke are better than Garza and Dempster, sure, but if Garza and Dempster weren’t so obviously available, then the demand for Greinke and Hamels would certainly be higher, right?
Also, I’m guessing that both of those teams are more likely to contend sooner than the Cubs, so what constitutes a good offer might be different, The Phillies and Brewers might want prospects closer to MLB ready, the Cubs might want talent that they could develop while the Major League club is still sucking.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
That’s what I was thinking, MO. I think that is a possibility if that desperation exists. I don’t think it does. Yet.
Every time Dempster does anything, everyone is all, “Could this be Dempster’s last blah blah blah as a Cub?” and I just don’t buy it yet. The Cubs have leverage with Dempster since he almost assuredly would net them a compensation pick assuming he doesn’t blow anything out in the last half of the season. The Cubs don’t HAVE to deal Garza either. Granted it would be better long-term if they did, but somebody has to pitch on the ML level and they could do much worse than Garza.
As other options dry up, I think both Dempster and Garza move up wish lists, and GMs start jostling for position to see who will land that extra arm. It won’t get crazy, because neither guy is a CC Sabathia or even a Rich Harden, but it should push up a couple of offers into what the Cubs would deem acceptable.
I think Garza goes, possibly with LaHair. Dempster stays.
@ Aisle424:
Agreed. On LaHair, I think he needs to start getting starts in RF so they can maybe get him hitting again and entice some teams. DeJesus was shit in June, has 3 XBH in the last 28 days, none of which are HR, and 5:1 K:BB to go along with a .697 OPS during that time. Maybe he needs a rest. But at least with LaHair, you’ve got some pop out there even though you lose a lot with his glove, compared to DeJesus
This looks familiar: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dempster-diving-for-better-trade-value/
That’s little more than a tl;dr of everything MB has written about Dempster for the last two years–aside rom the superfluous and redundant inclusion of SIERA. Fangraphs has really hit the skids, content-wise.
drew smyly back to the dl for the tigers
jason hammel left with a knee injury last night for the o’s
I am going to miss Dempster.. he has been a cub since what 2002?
This team sucks at bunting
bubblesdachimp wrote:
There’s nothing like watching finely tuned and conditioned athletes do what they best. And then there’s this:
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
That’s possible, but imagine a situation in which Ryan Theriot was the best hitter available. Do you think his value increases and if so, by how much? It’s definitely possible, but I think it’s also possible that another team in contention may say to themselves that the best another team in contention can do is add a Dempster and Garza so they’ll keep their prospects. Imagine the Cubs are in contention. They’re 1 game out. The best the division leading Reds can do is add a Matt Garza or Ryan Dempster. Do you really care? Isn’t there many ways in which you could improve your team by a win? If I’m the Cubs GM in that situation I let the Reds give up their prospects and I look at cheaper options to narrow the gap.
@ bubblesdachimp:
2004
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I saw that article on the sidebar and didn’t even bother reading it. I didn’t figure they had anything to add that we hadn’t come up with already.
@ Urk:
Good points, Urk.
Dempster just tied the Cubs record for scoreless innings. Impressive.
Are we mathamatically eliminated yet?
@ bubblesdachimp:
Yes. As well as grammatically and orthographically.
@ mb21:
If he were a hitter peaking at this age, people might whisper…
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22991409&topic_id=&c_id=was&tcid=vpp_copy_22991409&v=3
(dying laughing)
@ bubblesdachimp:
I don’t think any team is mathematically eliminated yet, but I’m more curious why you’d be asking.
@ GBTS:
What the hell was Johnson doing? (dying laughing)
@ GBTS:
The best scrappy player in baseball.
I think we can go on like a 30 game win streak. #INRIZZOWEBELIEVE
Peasants! Arst thou conversing?
Good piece of hitting by Rizzsanity
@ bubblesdachimp:
By the end of the year they’ll have Baez, Almora and Soler in their lineup.
@ Berselius37:
I’ve completely forgotten about the series previews. I actually think about them the day before a series and then don’t think about them until game 2 or 3. (dying laughing)
@ Berselius37:
Nay mi ‘ lord. We didn’t have a series preview to converse about
@ Berselius37:
Nay, m’lord. We are but poor, lost circus performers. Is there a village nearby?
Series Preview:
Cubs: Bad
D-backs: Not as bad
Prediction: Ugly baseball punctuated by worse weather
Man, ccd looks absolutely prescient for his Soto-is-Wilkins-redux stance of a few years back.
Immarmolation
Marmol’s throwing almost all sliders right now.
Ye gods. Marmol is lucky Kubel didn’t square that up. Big-time meatball.
@ GBTS:
I really love the way he plays. He’s so aware and energetic.
@ mb21:
No wonder all the other blogs continuously blast this one for being complete shit.
@ mb21:
you forgot Brett Jackson
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
IIRC it was mb who kept making that comp
@ Berselius37:
Whichever of them it was, they look pretty smart right now.
@ Berselius37:
I think that started from a comment on 1060 and I don’t remember if it was me or ccd, but we both immediately recognized some similarities. Too lazy to try and figure out what those were, but Soto has turned out to be Rick Wilkins. Both are examples of why we need larger samples than 1 or even 2 years to really know what a player’s talent level is. You can add Rich Hill, Jerome Walton and a bunch of others to that group too. It’s also why I was still somewhat cautiously optimistic about Zambrano entering 2005 and not all out optimistic. It’s why I didn’t buy F7s hot start and why I still don’t buy he’s a good starter. I buy he’s better than what I thought, but that’s about it.
On Hamels and Greinke,
I think it is a combination of factors going into the teams trying to extend them. One, the buying team gets no draft pick anymore, but if the team keeps them and they leave, they will definitely offer arb and get a sandwich pick, of which there will be less of and the new draft rules makes these picks more valuable then in drafts past. This is a nice incentive to just keep the player and try to sign him to keep fans from thinking you are giving up and aren’t trying to put a winning product on the field. Two, with the huge amount of TV dollars coming into teams making prices of buying teams going through the roof since the Ricketts bought the Cubs, it figures that teams are going to have more money to throw around to free agents this off-season. Rumors have the Dodgers willing to spend lots of money as well as other rumors about the Blue Jays, Orioles, Padres, Marlins, Red Sox willing to spend for a front line starter like these two. If their current teams can get them to sign for around the Matt Cain extension numbers, you could see that being a huge bargain for the team compared to what they could have made in free agency. All of this points to mid-tier rentals or players under control for more than this season being the ones likely to get moved. So, what I am really saying is why is Seattle not even listening to offers for King Felix?
The Cubs need to find a GM who believes Dempster will keep this scoreless innings streak going for the rest of the year.
@ mb21:
Where is Dave Littlefield when you need him? (dying laughing)
@ mb21:
I’m just looking forward to the trade so I can read your 4000 word post on how although you don’t care about these prospects, you are projecting for the year 2017 that they will all be terrible.
This will be followed closely by a post extolling the virtues of Ryan Flaherty… although you will likely say you don’t care about Ryan Flaherty somewhere in the post.
I did not read every word, but I’m hoping that Greinke and Hamels get dealt because there’s a chance that they won’t re-sign with the new team and then the Cubs can throw armored trucks full of money at them without forfeiting a draft pick next season.
I realize that this probably will affect the trade return for Garza and Dempster though.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
scouting for the cubs
mb21 wrote:
Hopefully Cashman is listening to Hendry.
@ GW:
That’s fucking poetic. (dying laughing)
I’m glad Dick Cheese is back. Maybe Ryno will return soon too.
@ Aisle424:
(dying laughing)
@ Aisle424:
That’s what she said.
@ Dick McCheesedoodle:
I heard jazz versions of Smoke on the Water and HIghway to Hell last night. Your argument is invalid.
@ Berselius37:
ouch
@ GW:
Agreed (that was a bit harsh), b, truly; a sad life–you must lead. Consi,der your-self (war)ned.
@ Dick McCheesedoodle:
That’s weird because those are not the type of things I look forward to. I look forward to sunny days. To each their own.
@ GW:
(dying laughing)
@ mb21:
Savor every moment. The best is yet to come.
I’m only going to write a 3000 word post on the trade just so Dick Cheese is disappointed.
BubbaBiscuit wrote:
I think so too. There’s not nearly as much incentive for a team to acquire a rental now. Part of the bonus of the rental in the past was you could offer arbitration and get draft picks. Not anymore. I agree with what 424 said. I think Garza is traded, but Dempster stays put.
@ mb21:
I wonder if it will please eccles2.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I write everything with one goal in mind: pleasing eccles2. That’s why I blog.
@ mb21:
Most inspiring poster in ACB history.
What. The. Fuck?
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/14/bill-james-doubles-down-on-the-joe-paterno-defense/
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17653
Subscriber only, unfortunately, but I loved this:
@ Aisle424:
Not too surprising, given his erstwhile defense of Pete Rose. I like James, but he’s quite bullheaded at times.
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
Of course he does, but that doesn’t mean the decision wasn’t stupid. You can’t ignore the risk and other factors that he has no control of. They matter and in the end it’s a huge, huge risk by him to get a couple million more. My guess is that he slips in the draft again and gets less money next year than he could have gotten this year. There’s no reason to think he’s going to increase his value and in a weak draft he was maybe the top pitching prospect. He was maybe the 4th best pitching prospect. The team with the most money to spend on their first pick wasn’t willing to go any higher than $1 million under slot. That was his max value THIS year. That goes down next year. the fact the Astros weren’t even willing to offer slot to this guy really should have told him to sign the deal with the Pirates.
Of course it’s his right. I’m not sure anybody has said otherwise, but saying he made a dumb decision is the correct thing to say.
I don’t understand Bill James on this one. I get his Pete Rose defense. I don’t get this one. At all. He’s ignoring all the evidence in front of him. All of it. The guy reads all the time. He loves crime stories. He should read this one: http://l.yimg.com/dh/ap/default/120712/freeh_report_final_071212.pdf
If that was so common 40 years ago, how come I’m not hearing other 50+ year-olds bringing this up? It’s not like people are hesitant to pass off awful behavior as old people simply not changing with the times. Granted, using the n-word or making terrible racist or sexist comments isn’t the same as pedophilia, but still, I’d have thought in all of this hype and coverage, we would have heard somebody else talk about how commonplace it used to be for men to shower with young boys. Shouldn’t it have come up in his defense? They only said HE showered with boys all the time, right?
Where the hell did Bill James grow up? This seems like the episode of Friends where Chandler goes to Joey’s tailor:
WHERE IS SPORTS PANTIES
in small town KS sometimes there would be shower sharing situations like lake campgrounds ect. But it wasn’t a man and a boy in a stall alone. Nobody was grabbing anybody. And it was fucking awkward as hell even then.
I have no fucking clue what James is thinking/doing here
Lincecum is back! He’s making the Astros’ hitters look like a bunch of hacks! Oh wait…
J. Baez hit a triple and a homer. Also did a good version of House of the Rising Sun.
Jed Lowrie is hurt (possible ACL sprain). This doesn’t bode well for the Cubs’ chances of securing a no. 1 pick.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcdowod01.shtml
(dying laughing)
James grew up in a small town in Kansas near where I currently live. Whether or not showering with boys was more common back then, it’s not today. Furthermore, these weren’t just showers. There was touching and ass rape and that wasn’t more common back then. I think James has done something he’s criticized his entire life: ignored the facts.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Even worse is the 55-22 record they’re gonna have post all star break!
@ Doogolas:
Rizzo will win the first of his 12 MVP awards.
@ GW:
???
@ mb21:
look at the section below salaries
Titties fucking big asses. Sorry, I have been out of the loop and figured I should do something for traffic.
I finally pulled up highlights from yesterday well after today’s game. On the plus side: beer.
on the other plus side, I watched Randy Johnson’s 19K game and Kevin Brown’s almost perfect game (he hit a batter in the bottom of the 8th) for the Marlins in 1997. I didn’t know that dude, but he had a good career. I guess Espn will just show random older games? I don’t really watch TV.
@ GW:
(dying laughing) that’s awesome.
@ josh:
Kevin brown was one of my favorite pitchers for a time. Dude was unhittable at times.
Wow, Lincecum is really cursed. Even when he pitches great, his bullpen blows the lead.
Felix had a gamescore of 93 today (9 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 13 K).
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2012_07_14_sdnmlb_lanmlb_1&highlight_content_id=23042581&c_id=sd
Wonder what the umpire was thinking when he initially called the first guy out.
@ Rice Cube:
HumanElement!
@ Rice Cube:
(dying laughing), I love how deadpan Scully was on his call of the play
@ Rice Cube:
This just shows why we don’t need instant replay. That umpire was smart enough to realize, without any help from anyone else, that the runner there was safe. If we had instant replay we would have needed to stop the game for at least 20 minutes while someone in a booth somewhere watched countless angles to really see whether or not the runner was safe on that very close play.
@ josh:
“Titties fucking big asses” won’t help in steering traffic, there’s thousands of pages that offer that type of content. You need to narrowcast, like “titty fucking Arby’s value meal.” These are the people we’re trying to attract.
@ GBTS:
(dying laughing)
(by quasi-papal guy)
Ben Sheets is starting a game for the Braves today.
@ Berselius:
You could spin it to say that the section in the upper right signifies “sharp” singles while the one straight right stands for festive hitting…whatever that might mean.
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/sunday-facepalm.html