I had planned to put something more thorough together for today, but was too lazy to do so. Instead, I’m just going to list the guys who the highest strikeout percentage since 2006 (minimum 1000 PA) followed by their minor league strikeout rate. Sometime when I’m not lazy, I’ll add to it. For MLB numbers, I’m using Fangraphs. For MiLB numbers, I’m using the following formula: K% = K / (PA – IBB). I don’t believe Fangraphs subtracts IBB for some reason, but that won’t matter much. For example, Fangraphs has Mark Reynold’s K% at 33.6%. Subtracing IBB from PA lowers it to 33.1%.
Mark Reynolds: 33.6%, 23.2%
Adam Dunn: 27.4%, 18.4%
Ryan Howard: 27.3%, 27.7%
Jim Thome: 25.1%, 21.8%
Mike Cameron: 24.8%, 22.0%
BJ Upton: 24.6%, 19.7%
Brandon Inge: 24.1%, 22.1%
Jayson Werth: 23.4%, 20.2%
Adam LaRoche: 23.4%, 19.1%
Brad Hawpe: 23.2%, 21.3%
Austin Jackson is in the top 5 in that time frame, but he does not have 1000 PA.
Brett Jackson: 24.0%
Among the 10 listed above, only Ryan Howard struckout more in the minor leagues than Brett Jackson has so far. However, be careful not to draw any conclusions from this yet. Jackson will be entering the big leagues fro the first time while some of the players above had been in the big leagues for awhile already. Their skill levels more than likely changed.
It’s not earth shattering to find out that players strikeout more in the big leagues. Guess what else. They don’t hit or pitch as well either. Same thing with fielding and baserunning. We already knew that. Still, Jackson’s strikeout rate is alarmingly high. You’ve surely noticed that several of those players had been really good. Those players above have still been productive. Over that time frame, they were worth nearly 27 WAR per season as a group or 2.7 WAR per player.
Striking out does not mean you can’t be productive. The players above prove it.
[quote name=Berselius]Tell those AMC fuckers to re-air the show during the week on a day when I’m not driving all night.[/quote]Contrary to what you may think, i don’t have a direct line to AMC. I took them off speed dial after The Killing. (dying laughing)
B-Jax led off tonight’s I-Cubs game with a homer. Nice timing.
[quote name=Rice Cube]B-Jax led off tonight’s I-Cubs game with a homer. Nice timing.[/quote]I saw it coming, RC. (dying laughing)
14 pitch inning for Cashner, 1 strikeout, nobody reached base.
At some point Rodrigo Lopez will shit the bed, but for now it’s nice to see the Cubs score some runs.
[quote name=Rice Cube]At some point Rodrigo Lopez will shit the bed, but for now it’s nice to see the Cubs score some runs.[/quote]
Yup.
Barney with an extremely stupid throw. No idea WTF he was thinking there.
[quote name=melissa]Barney with an extremely stupid throw. No idea WTF he was thinking there.[/quote]
It is arguable that he probably wasn’t thinking at the time.
[quote name=Rice Cube]It is arguable that he probably wasn’t thinking at the time.[/quote]
No doubt. Maybe he was thinking about his last at bat.
/Valentine’d
Bob Brenly is playing the part of Bobby V tonight. The target du jour is Darwin Barney.
[quote name=mb21]Contrary to what you may think, i don’t have a direct line to AMC. I took them off speed dial after The Killing. (dying laughing)[/quote]
I’ll take it as a compliment to see The Killing and Obstructed View mentioned together
[quote name=melissa]Barney with an extremely stupid throw. No idea WTF he was thinking there.[/quote]
Clearly, he was thinking about cats
i was afraid it was Castro who made that play at first, so I was actually kind of happy to see Barney mess up I still don’t know what happened on Nyjer’s bunt. He looked out to me, but they never showed a good replay, so i wasn’t sure if they said he pulled off or what.
[quote name=josh]i was afraid it was Castro who made that play at first, so I was actually kind of happy to see Barney mess up I still don’t know what happened on Nyjer’s bunt. He looked out to me, but they never showed a good replay, so i wasn’t sure if they said he pulled off or what.[/quote]
Barney’s foot left the bag early or he was pulled off. I don’t think Morgan beat it out if Barney stays on the bag or Lopez threw it better. They scored it a missed catch error on Barney though.
Len and Bob didn’t really question it, but the one replay they showed he looked like he kept his foot on. Eh well. It’s not like they were going to win this one anyway. Is it September yet? Let’s see B-Jax.
What’s up with the homeplate umpire calling that a swing? It wasn’t even close. Do they just hate Tyler or something?
Nyjer Morgan can’t bunt today.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Nyjer Morgan can’t bunt today.[/quote]He bunted well enough to make the umpire think Barney came off the bag. So bad bunting with a hint of magic.
I-Cubs bullpen just totally shit the bed.
I sense excitement for our illustrious Cubs team has waned somewhat over the last few days.
The ghost of Hayden Simpson upped his record in Arizona to 0-4 today. 1 IP, 3H 1BB 2ER 0K.
For the season in AZ:
17.2 IP
16ER
11BB
11K
Ah, defensive indifference…
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ah, defensive indifference…[/quote]Should he get credit for the wild pitch? Shouldn’t it be pitcher’s indifference?
[quote name=josh]Should he get credit for the wild pitch? Shouldn’t it be pitcher’s indifference?[/quote]
Is that like the anti-balk?
I don’t see why the Cubs can run Rodrigo Lopez out there every few days, but Bryan LaHair is like some kind of poison.
[quote name=josh]I don’t see why the Cubs can run Rodrigo Lopez out there every few days, but Bryan LaHair is like some kind of poison.[/quote]
Someone should teach LaHair how to throw a curveball. Get him up here faster.
Wow, Mark DeRosa is playing again! 1B for the Giants tonight.
Chris Capuano: 9 IP, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 H, 13 K
Wow.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Someone should teach LaHair how to throw a curveball. Get him up here faster.[/quote]I’m just saying, Rodrigo is a terrible, and yet we cling to Pena like he’s going to save our team. Pena should have been traded and someone else brought up.
I’m just pissed that they lost again and again and again forever.
[quote name=ACT]Chris Capuano: 9 IP, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 H, 13 K
Wow.[/quote]nice.
According to game score (96), that’s the best-pitched game all year. Santana (no-hitter) and Verlander (12 K 2-hitter) are tied at 94.
[quote name=ACT]According to game score (96), that’s the best-pitched game all year. Santana (no-hitter) and Verlander (12 K 2-hitter) are tied at 94.[/quote]Capuano has been mediocre over his career, hasn’t he?
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Saturday-is-8216-Larry-Bernandez-8217-bobble?urn=mlb-wp17232
Awesome.
Pretty much, yeah.
[quote name=Rice Cube](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Saturday-is-8216-Larry-Bernandez-8217-bobble?urn=mlb-wp17232
Awesome.[/quote]No one (except, maybe, Bobby V) can accuse Felix of not having fun.
Have fun figuring out this play:
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18474727
Wow @ fail
[quote name=Rice Cube]Have fun figuring out this play:
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18474727
Wow @ fail[/quote]
Relevant:
Two things:
1.) Jackson is K’ing at a ~30% clip so far at AAA. That’s like a 6 or 7% jump from what he’d done previously. If he sees a similar jump when he gets to the majors, he’ll be K’ing in nearly 40% of his PA. Even if he sees the expected jump (3-5%), he’d be K’ing at a higher % than even Reynolds. Now, as you say, that doesn’t mean he can’t be productive player. But it’s still a problem.
2.) Miles is now saying that the sense he gets from the Cubs is Jackson won’t get a September callup because Marlon Byrd is still here. I guess we’re still trying to win games here.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Two things:
1.) Jackson is K’ing at a ~30% clip so far at AAA. That’s like a 6 or 7% jump from what he’d done previously. If he sees a similar jump when he gets to the majors, he’ll be K’ing in nearly 40% of his PA. Even if he sees the expected jump (3-5%), he’d be K’ing at a higher % than even Reynolds. Now, as you say, that doesn’t mean he can’t be productive player. But it’s still a problem.
2.) Miles is now saying that the sense he gets from the Cubs is Jackson won’t get a September callup because Marlon Byrd is still here. I guess we’re still trying to win games here.[/quote]Sounds more like –if that truly ends up being the case– that they just don’t believe in B-Jax. Maybe they’re going to try offload him.
Maybe B-Jax will be one of those guys who learns as he goes. It’s not that common, but a few players have learned plate discipline as they went. Okay, so it’s mostly Jose Bautista.
[quote name=ACT]Chris Capuano: 9 IP, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 H, 13 K
Wow.[/quote]
Another member of the Wandy Rodriguez all-stars
eh, it’s only 175 PAs for Jackson in AAA, and he’s 23 years old. I’m fine with giving him more time to adjust. I don’t really get all the hand-wringing over BJax – I don’t think anyone expects him to be a superstar.
(dying laughing), Dave O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
“Next time a New Yorker scoffs at ATL overreaction to snow, I’ll cite being stuck in NYC 2 days w/ airports closed while Cat 1 storm was in N.C.”
[quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), Dave O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
“Next time a New Yorker scoffs at ATL overreaction to snow, I’ll cite being stuck in NYC 2 days w/ airports closed while Cat 1 storm was in N.C.”[/quote]
So true. I was out on business once in NYC, and the city basically shut down for 2 inches of snow. What a bunch of fucking vaginas. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Berselius]eh, it’s only 175 PAs for Jackson in AAA, and he’s 23 years old. I’m fine with giving him more time to adjust. I don’t really get all the hand-wringing over BJax – I don’t think anyone expects him to be a superstar.[/quote]What else are we going to talk about? Criticizing Rodrigo Lopez is sort of redundant.
Vin Scully ———–> back for another season
[quote name=Chris Dickerson]The ghost of Hayden Simpson upped his record in Arizona to 0-4 today. 1 IP, 3H 1BB 2ER 0K.
For the season in AZ:
17.2 IP
16ER
11BB
11K[/quote]It’s all because of mono. (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]It’s all because of Aramis Ramirez. (dying laughing)[/quote]
.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Two things:
1.) Jackson is K’ing at a ~30% clip so far at AAA. That’s like a 6 or 7% jump from what he’d done previously. If he sees a similar jump when he gets to the majors, he’ll be K’ing in nearly 40% of his PA. Even if he sees the expected jump (3-5%), he’d be K’ing at a higher % than even Reynolds. Now, as you say, that doesn’t mean he can’t be productive player. But it’s still a problem.
2.) Miles is now saying that the sense he gets from the Cubs is Jackson won’t get a September callup because Marlon Byrd is still here. I guess we’re still trying to win games here.[/quote]Jackson only has about 180 PA at AAA so I’m inclined to believe his K% is going to regress toward his average so far in his career. It would be very rare for a player who had about a 23% k-rate to jump to 30% or higher at the next level in the minor leagues.
I’ve looked through about 50 players and one guys keeps standing out to me: Mark Reynolds. Maybe even Grady Sizemore, but Grady didn’t strikeout nearly as much in the minor leagues, but his strikeout rate at the big leagues is probably just a bit better than we can expect from Jackson. Sizemore was a 20-.20 guy his first 3 full seasons and the scouts and stats say that Jackson will be one immediately too. BB% is probably similar as well. I expect Jackson to strikeout more, but overall I actually think he’s a pretty good comparison and I think the scouts have even mentioned him before.
Mark Reynolds’ 2009 season, minus about 20 home runs, is another decent comparable. I think he’s Mark Reynolds with less power, but more speed and better defense. He also will probably strikeout less and walk a bit more, but if Mark Reynolds never existed, Brett Jackson was going to be challenging the strikeout record on an annual basis.
[quote name=Berselius]eh, it’s only 175 PAs for Jackson in AAA, and he’s 23 years old. I’m fine with giving him more time to adjust. I don’t really get all the hand-wringing over BJax – I don’t think anyone expects him to be a superstar.[/quote]Yeah, I think he’ll be productive. Entering the season I’d probably have said 3 to 5 WAR, but I’d probably lower it to 2 to 4. That’s valuable.
[quote name=josh]Maybe B-Jax will be one of those guys who learns as he goes. It’s not that common, but a few players have learned plate discipline as they went. Okay, so it’s mostly Jose Bautista.[/quote]plate discipline isn’t the issue for Jackson. Dude takes his walks as well as anyone. Guys who takes lots of walks works a lot of deep counts. They see a lot of 2-strike counts meaning they’re going to strike out a lot. Jackson works those deep counts regularly, but also swings and misses more than most resulting in even higher strikeout totals.
[quote name=mb21]Yeah, I think he’ll be productive. Entering the season I’d probably have said 3 to 5 WAR, but I’d probably lower it to 2 to 4. That’s valuable.[/quote]To put that into perspective, Castro has basically been a 1 to 3 WAR player over his 2 years. Jackson isn’t as young as Castro, but probably has as much upside as him in my opinion.
[quote name=mb21]plate discipline isn’t the issue for Jackson. Dude takes his walks as well as anyone. Guys who takes lots of walks works a lot of deep counts. They see a lot of 2-strike counts meaning they’re going to strike out a lot. Jackson works those deep counts regularly, but also swings and misses more than most resulting in even higher strikeout totals.[/quote]Right, I should have said “lower their strikeout rate.”
[quote name=Rice Cube]Have fun figuring out this play:
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18474727
Wow @ fail[/quote]That’s just fucking embarrassing.
The Cubs have major problems throwing the third base in Milwaukee.
[quote name=GBTS]The Cubs have major problems throwing the third base in Milwaukee.
[quote name=josh]I still don’t get why Braun got to go home on that play last night. Shouldn’t it be one base on a ball thrown out of play?[/quote]
I don’t quite understand it either. I thought he only got to advance one base.
[quote name=josh]I still don’t get why Braun got to go home on that play last night. Shouldn’t it be one base on a ball thrown out of play?[/quote]I thought the rule is you get the base you’re heading towards and the base after that.
So, if, say, a throw goes into the seats while you’re overrunning first, you get second, but if it happens while you’re heading toward second, you get third. I think.
ACT’s reasoning is probably correct but I thought there are provisions for two-base errors should a throw go out of play.
[quote name=ACT]So, if, say, a throw goes into the seats while you’re overrunning first, you get second, but if it happens while you’re heading toward second, you get third. I think.[/quote]I don’t know where exactly Braun was when the ball went out of play, but there was a runner ahead of him, so even if he was past second, it seemed most logical to only award him third. But that’s why I don’t make the big bucks, I guess. Len and Bob were basically not bothering to analyze anything yesterday, which was frustrating.
I think Barney’s throw went into either the dugout or the stands. That’s a two-base penalty according to Rule 7.05g:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/official_rules/runner_7.jsp
[quote name=ACT]I thought the rule is you get the base you’re heading towards and the base after that.[/quote]
Yep. In 2004, Hawkins was trying to close out a game (I think it was Houston). He loads the bases with one out, and the batter lined a shot back up the middle that he managed to snag somehow and then tried to double off the runner at first. His throw it the runner in the helmet and bounced into the stands.
The umpires awarded home to both the runner at third and at second.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think Barney’s throw went into either the dugout or the stands. That’s a two-base penalty according to Rule 7.05g:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/official_rules/runner_7.jsp/quoteWell, there you go.
I think discretion is allowed if there were some kind of obstruction on the play, but if the play is live and the ball is deflected out of play, the rules are pretty explicit about the awarding of extra bases.
The first error on Barney may not have been an error…
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/6240/defense-dooms-cubs-in-loss-to-brewers
Can’t really find a replay though.
I hope berselius never uses this toothpaste:
Shouldn’t it say carcurus?
Apparently all of my students use it.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think Barney’s throw went into either the dugout or the stands. That’s a two-base penalty according to Rule 7.05g:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/official_rules/runner_7.jsp/quoteThanks. Saved me from looking for the rules, but I knew sometimes you got 2 bases.
[quote name=Aisle424]Yep. In 2004, Hawkins was trying to close out a game (I think it was Houston). He loads the bases with one out, and the batter lined a shot back up the middle that he managed to snag somehow and then tried to double off the runner at first. His throw it the runner in the helmet and bounced into the stands.
The umpires awarded home to both the runner at third and at second.[/quote]I think Ryno made a gif of that at one point. Classic play. For some reason I thought it was against the Phillies.
I know Cubs fans don’t like Ryan Braun for some reason, but he’s one of my favorite players to watch. I love players who show emotion and that’s one of the things that made me like Z so much. Not to mention, Braun is fucking awesome at hitting baseballs.
Agreed on your last point. The idea that strikeouts are just so much worse than any other out has long been understood to be wrong, and I think there are a few other key considerations.
First, Jackson takes walks. It is very rare that the Cubs manage to develop a player that will take a walk. And one of the many reasons this is so huge, is because if you think Jackson’s K rate will prevent him from ever becoming more than a .270 hitter, it’s still safe to say he’ll get on base enough to more than make up for that.
Also, we’re talking about a guy who, at least for now, and probably for the next few years, plays a premium defensive position. I won’t be shocked if Jackson moves off the position eventually, even if it’s just to make room for someone else that’s just clearly the better outfielder, but by the time that happens, I think he’ll have established himself as good major league hitter. I think his bat will play in a corner if/when that time comes.
Oh, and he’s got 19 homers this year. And 21 steals. I think there are a lot of scouts out there that would tell you Jackson can and will go 20-20 quite often at the big league level.
I’m not saying he’s a future superstar. But I think he will be a good player. And the more of those that make it out of the minor leagues, the better.
[quote name=mb21]I know Cubs fans don’t like Ryan Braun for some reason, but he’s one of my favorite players to watch. I love players who show emotion and that’s one of the things that made me like Z so much. Not to mention, Braun is fucking awesome at hitting baseballs.[/quote]He’d be even more fun to watch if they moved him back to 3B.
Yeah, Jack, I’m not too worried about Jackson. The strikeouts are a concern. ACT has posted a link here before about how high strikeout prospects have a higher chance of underperforming (or something like that). That being said, he’s going to get on base and probably be a 20/20 guy right away.
ACT, do you have that link handy? I promise it’s the last time I’ll ask. I’ll bookmark it this time. Thanks.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/4/22/2123847/the-significance-of-minor-league-k-rates
BJax has a rather odd collection of traits. He’s obviously not going to be a Larry Walker or a Ryan Howard, but he’s got a broad enough set of tools that he could still be useful with a low BA.
I can’t believe the Red Sox are trying to squeeze two games in today, much less one. It’s like they completely ignored the gigantic wave of suck heading their way.
I guess strikeouts are better than GIPD’s. The question for me is what would be the overall effect on these high strikeout players if they cut down their swings a bit in two-strike situations? If you swing and miss, you’re out. But if you swing and make contact, don’t most hitters have a 30 per cent or better chance of hitting safely? So in theory you could gain points on batting average, but what would be the loss in slugging? Would there be a net gain or loss in OPS?
That should be GIDPs.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I can’t believe the Red Sox are trying to squeeze two games in today, much less one. It’s like they completely ignored the gigantic wave of suck heading their way.[/quote]
Heh, I have tickets to the O’s-Yankees day game tomorrow. I’m surprised they haven’t canceled it yet.
[quote name=mb21]I think Ryno made a gif of that at one point. Classic play. For some reason I thought it was against the Phillies.[/quote]
It might have been, I may be mixing up games in my head. I feel like it was the same game where DLee hit a 2-run HR off Oswalt in the bottom of the 8th. But maybe it wasn’t Oswalt.
[quote name=Frank] If you swing and miss, you’re out. But if you swing and make contact, don’t most hitters have a 30 per cent or better chance of hitting safely?[/quote]League average batting average on contact (H/(AB-SO)) is on the order of .330 or so, and there is a lot of variation among hitters (Joey Votto’s BACON is over .400 for his career).
I think if we talked about BACON more, we could attract a whole new kind of fan.
So how does BJax get his K rate down? Is it a matter of being more aggressive? Sacrificing trying to make the perfect hit for just making contact?
[quote name=josh]I think if we talked about BACON more, we could attract a whole new kind of fan.[/quote]
Someone start building the EGGS and PANCAKE metrics now.
[quote name=josh]I think if we talked about BACON more, we could attract a whole new kind of fan.[/quote]
[quote name=Frank]I guess strikeouts are better than GIPD’s. The question for me is what would be the overall effect on these high strikeout players if they cut down their swings a bit in two-strike situations? If you swing and miss, you’re out. But if you swing and make contact, don’t most hitters have a 30 per cent or better chance of hitting safely? So in theory you could gain points on batting average, but what would be the loss in slugging? Would there be a net gain or loss in OPS?[/quote]I think in order for Jackson to cut down on his strikeouts he likely has to do two things: swing earlier/more often and cut down on his swing*.
*I say this having never seen the guy play except for on the crappy MiLB.com feed. Jack Nugent has seen him play a lot and can talk more about that.
I’m all for Jackson working on his strikeout rate, but I don’t want him to make changes that are going to make him less valuable. What I mean by that is I don’t want him to become a slap hitter where he’s looking to make contact early in the count. I don’t want him to shoot the ball to LF if he can turn on it with a better swing and jack it out of the park.
I think, like all players, you have to work with them in a way to cut down on certain things without taking away what makes them a good ballplayer. What makes Jackson a good player is his broad set of skills, but his OBP is what jumps out the most in my opinion. He has a great combination of power and speed for a young guy.
I’m concerned about him against lefties, which is why I think the Cubs need to bring a guy like Reed Johnson back. I don’t want a platoon even if Jackson is struggling vs lefties, but having him around to spell him against the tough lefties is important in my opinion.
MLB.com still says the A’s-Red Sox doubleheader is “delayed”…just call the first game and postpone the second game already, storm’s a-comin’!
[quote name=josh]I think if we talked about BACON more, we could attract a whole new kind of fan.[/quote]
meh… we would have to check out the venn diagrams, but I’m guessing there’s quite a bit of overlap.
Interesting…I think this is the first time the Indians have used Fukudome as a leadoff hitter, and against a LHP too. Took a seven-pitch walk to start the Indians’ first inning.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Interesting…I think this is the first time the Indians have used Fukudome as a leadoff hitter, and against a LHP too.[/quote]Well, they got it half-right, at least.
Make that 1/3 right; they have him in CF.
Aramis Ramirez has himself a hit streak eh.
Prince Fielder is very strong.
The Brewers are good.
[quote name=mb21]The Brewers are good.[/quote]I’ll go out on a limb and pick them to win the NL Central this year.
[quote name=ACT]I’ll go out on a limb and pick them to win the NL Central this year.[/quote]I’m going with the Astros.
[quote name=mb21]I’m going with the Astros.[/quote]They’re in perfect position to win the division.
[quote name=mb21]They’re in perfect position to win the #1 pick.[/quote]
Could’ve been the Cubs, alas… (dying laughing)
Soto needs to figure it out or else it’s going to be more Koyie Hill for the Cubs. Not that it matters at this point though.
Geo has been extremely frustrating this year (though the assists have been nice).
[quote name=ACT]Geo has been extremely frustrating this year (though the assists have been nice).[/quote]
He’s already been worth 2 WAR and ranks among the top 5-6 among catchers in the NL, I think. Yes we expect more, but all in all a decent season.
Yeah, I know he’s having a solid year, but it’s been frustrating nonetheless. He goes through stretches where he’s very good, and then he goes into other stretches in which he strikes out all the time. It’s like he’s teasing us.
Sori in the clutch!
It’s one of those stretches for Geo. Ick.
[quote name=ACT] he goes into other stretches in which he strikes out all the time.[/quote]…especially with
…a runner on third and less than 2 outs.
Not sure what happened with my first post there. I typed the rest of the sentence but it got deleted somehow.
Geo shut me right up.
I-Cubs defense is full of fail.
Sean Marshall is full of win.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I-Cubs defense is full of fail.
Sean Marshall is full of win.[/quote]
Player development by the Cubs. Preparing to suck once they reach ML level.
I’ve really been harping on the defense lately. They can sign Albert and Fielder but it won’t mean shit with the way this team displays fundamentals.
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]Player development by the Cubs. Preparing to suck once they reach ML level.
I’ve really been harping on the defense lately. They can sign Albert and Fielder but it won’t mean shit with the way this team displays fundamentals.[/quote]I think that’s an important point. The infield doesn’t make a lot of routine plays that it should, and it rarely makes the good plays. Maybe it’s something they can work on, or maybe swapping their 2B and SS would help.
I don’t think rearranging the deck chairs is going to work. Barney is probably best suited for 2nd base and he’s pretty good. The Fans Scouting Report has him as the best defender on the team, which is probably accurate. What they really need is fewer throwing errors. The FSR’s have Castro rated very highly except for his throwing accuracy.
Castro’s range has been very good this year and most of his problems have been with the arm. I’m not nearly as convinced as some that it’s just going to get better with age. I hope it does, but I wouldn’t count on it.
Are the Cubs the only team that has their “slowest” player at third?
Soto might be slower than Ramirez, but it’s close. Disregarding catchers, though, which is what I assume you meant, I doubt there are too many teams that put their slowest runner at 3rd.
If you look at Fangraphs Speed Score (yeah, I know!), Ramirez is at 1.3, Longoria 1.8, and then McGehee is at 1.9. No other qualified 3rd baseman is under 2. Beltre, Valencia and Polanco are under 3. The other 11 are over 3.
I was referring to the FSR, which gives Aramis a velocity score of 18. That has to be one of the lowest scores for a player who is not a catcher or first baseman.
Prince is 23!
[quote name=mb21]I don’t think rearranging the deck chairs is going to work. Barney is probably best suited for 2nd base and he’s pretty good. The Fans Scouting Report has him as the best defender on the team, which is probably accurate. What they really need is fewer throwing errors. The FSR’s have Castro rated very highly except for his throwing accuracy.[/quote]Barney is good at 2nd, but Castro just makes me cringe at short. If his arm accuracy doesn’t improve, there doesn’t seem to be much left for him. Moving to 3rd would mean less ranging, but longer throws. I can’t imagine Castro in the OF, just thinking purely of defense, but maybe he’d be okay.
I guess to me shorter throws from 2nd for Castro would mean fewer errors, but I don’t know if that’s true. Barney plays 2nd like a shortstop, but he might be overmatched at short on the major league level. I don’t know, maybe 2 WAR and 3 WAR from 2B and SS is enough to win if you have a stronger outfield, despite the errors.
OK, I just looked through all the FSR’s and Aramis does have the lowest velocity rating for a non-first baseman/catcher. He’s also slower than most catchers and all but 4 or so first basemen.
I just thought this was pretty awesome. I wouldn’t think it was as awesome if the Cubs actually had a shot at contention though.
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18511811
[quote name=mb21]Soto might be slower than Ramirez, but it’s close. Disregarding catchers, though, which is what I assume you meant, I doubt there are too many teams that put their slowest runner at 3rd.[/quote]
Soto might be slow as hell, but he’s probably the Cubs’ best baserunner, outside of Barney.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I just thought this was pretty awesome. I wouldn’t think it was as awesome if the Cubs actually had a shot at contention though.
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18511811/quote
WOW. That had to be 450 feet.
Not sure about you guys, but I would totally support the Cubs signing Fielder in the offseason. My only requirement would be the contract cannot be longer than 5 years. Thoughts?
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]Soto might be slow as hell, but he’s probably the Cubs’ best baserunner, outside of Barney.[/quote]I don’t think so. For instance, he made an ill-advised attempt for third on a bad Garza bunt recently.
[quote name=ACT]Are the Cubs the only team that has their “slowest” player at third?[/quote]Kung-Fu Panda?
Cashner ————–> AFL (after the season)
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]Soto might be slow as hell, but he’s probably the Cubs’ best baserunner, outside of Barney.[/quote]According to what I could find on Fangraphs, anyway, Castro is the second best baserunner on the team, behind Barney.
I have to say, I don’t mind the Brewers winning as much as I do the Cards or Reds. Maybe it’s just that the color red enrages me or something. Here’s hoping September is mildly interesting for the Cubs.
Jonah Keri on the Cubs: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6884431/the-road-map-cubs-resurgence#footnote5
I’m less concerned than Jonah about Pujols’ “off year,” though I am concerned about his age. I hope the Cubs don’t offer him an A-Rod sort of deal.
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]WOW. That had to be 450 feet.
Not sure about you guys, but I would totally support the Cubs signing Fielder in the offseason. My only requirement would be the contract cannot be longer than 5 years. Thoughts?[/quote]
This sez 428-433:
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2011_678&type=hitter
It was hit on such a high arc that it didn’t have the “X” distance but still impressive.
Baltimore I am in you.
Insert The Wire reference here.
[quote name=ACT]I’m less concerned than Jonah about Pujols’ “off year,” though I am concerned about his age. I hope the Cubs don’t offer him an A-Rod sort of deal.[/quote]Based on what I’ve been reading lately I doubt the Cubs sign any top tier free agents this offseason. I’m guessing Carlos Silva returns on a 1-year deal and the Cubs acquire some 3rd baseman for a year hoping that Vitters develops by the end of next year.
[quote name=Berselius]Baltimore I am in you.
Insert The Wire reference here.[/quote]Don’t tell me what to do.
How’s the weather out East? Sunny and calm?
Brilliant strategy by Coleman walking the top 3 batters with 1 out to get Fielder to ground into the inning-ending double play.
Conversing thou arst, peasants?
Hmmm. Are the Cubs getting no-hit?
[quote name=Rice Cube]Hmmm. Are the Cubs getting no-hit?[/quote]
Shut me right up.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Greinke —-> SB
[quote name=mb21]Don’t tell me what to do.
How’s the weather out East? Sunny and calm?[/quote]
It’s great out here. Easily the best weather of any baseball game I’ve been to.
[quote name=Berselius]It’s great out here. Easily the best weather of any baseball game I’ve been to.[/quote]
You doing both games in the doubleheader?
This game is so meaningful. So who thinks they should just do the top 5 or 6 teams from each league? I’d be fine with 2 more teams in the postseason and a shortened regular season. 162 games is kind of insane.
[quote name=josh]This game is so meaningful. So who thinks they should just do the top 5 or 6 teams from each league? I’d be fine with 2 more teams in the postseason and a shortened regular season. 162 games is kind of insane.[/quote]
I think the new Selig plan is to add another wild card but I doubt anyone will approve a shortened schedule as they still like money.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think the new Selig plan is to add another wild card but I doubt anyone will approve a shortened schedule as they still like money.[/quote]I wish the season was a lot shorter. I think baseball would be more exciting if it didn’t drag on forever. Yeah, its a marathon…..but no one likes watching a marathon.
But taht said, if they shortened the regular season 10 games and added games to the postseason, and took out the stupid breaks every other game, they could make the postseason much more interesting without abandoning all revenue.
And for every team like the Cubs who can fill the stadium consistently, there are plenty of teams who can’t at all. Making the product (baseball) more scarce could actually drive up demand.
I’d consider pinch-running for Byrd here with Campana.
[quote name=josh]And for every team like the Cubs who can fill the stadium consistently, there are plenty of teams who can’t at all. Making the product (baseball) more scarce could actually drive up demand.[/quote]
It’d be interesting to see how the experts ran the numbers to determine maximal profits.
Just saw the countdown-like thing at the top about how it’s been almost 38000 days since the Cubs won the World Series, nice touch.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Just saw the countdown-like thing at the top about how it’s been almost 38000 days since the Cubs won the World Series, nice touch.[/quote]Nice. I wonder if Campy would have been able to outrun or avoid that tag. Would have been worth a try, I think. Listach didn’t want to, I guess.
I see the argument, most recently put forth by Joey Votto (who has certain motivations of his own) that NY Yankees should get to have more money because they have a bigger market to appease. Of course, one could also argue that having better competition would increase the drama and make the Yankees an even better team, and thus it benefits New York to have a better dispersal of income.
On the other hand, most fans are somewhat selfish and probably wouldn’t mind seeing their team make every other team in the league look like a AAA team relative to their own, so the battle is probably more uphill than it first appears.
[quote name=josh]Nice. I wonder if Campy would have been able to outrun or avoid that tag. Would have been worth a try, I think. Listach didn’t want to, I guess.[/quote]
I don’t think they wanted to upset the great Marlon Byrd by having to pinch run for him. Or they were saving Campana for Soriano. Who knows…
The refusal to pinch-run Campana may have been Listach’s inexperience. Or maybe, unlike Quade, he doesn’t like to use pinch-runners. Or something.
[quote name=ACT]The refusal to pinch-run Campana may have been Listach’s inexperience. Or maybe, unlike Quade, he doesn’t like to use pinch-runners. Or something.[/quote]
Well here’s the deal…Colvin hit the homer with one out, right? So Cubs now down just one. Byrd gets on base and doesn’t steal. You have a fly ball hitter behind him in Soriano. You must tie the game or else you don’t get to keep playing. Campana in = third base almost guaranteed. Man on third with one out = two chances to put the ball in play and get him in. I thought it was a no-brainer pinch-run situation, but what do I know.
I see many BCB’ers are ripping on Soto and Byrd these days. What nice, rational people.
The main argument against them is their low BA’s with RISP, which of course, is the best stat ever.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Well here’s the deal…Colvin hit the homer with one out, right? So Cubs now down just one. Byrd gets on base and doesn’t steal. You have a fly ball hitter behind him in Soriano. You must tie the game or else you don’t get to keep playing. Campana in = third base almost guaranteed. Man on third with one out = two chances to put the ball in play and get him in. I thought it was a no-brainer pinch-run situation, but what do I know.[/quote]Yeah, Campy stealing 2nd and maybe 3rd probably could have led to a tie ballgame. There was no reason not to in that situation.
[quote name=josh]Yeah, Campy stealing 2nd and maybe 3rd probably could have led to a tie ballgame. There was no reason not to in that situation.[/quote]Why have Campana in the lineup except for situations like that? This is why Quade getting tossed over a shitty call early isn’t always the best move.
[quote name=ACT]The main argument against them is their low BA’s with RISP, which of course, is the best stat ever.[/quote]It is frustrating day after day to watch the Cubs get runners on and fail to score. You can’t put all the blame on those two, it’s a teamwide problem.
[quote name=josh]It is frustrating day after day to watch the Cubs get runners on and fail to score. You can’t put all the blame on those two, it’s a teamwide problem.[/quote]
Hard to score if your guys are 1) bad at baserunning 2) hit grounders a bunch 3) have no extra-base power 4) sucky.
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/want-to-know-when-a-statistic-is-useless.html