Today is really special guys. I'm going to give you an update on how the top 20 prospects in our organization are faring. (hint- not well!) All rankings come from John Sickels
1. Brett Jackson OF AAA – Jackson is sporting a slash line of .255/.357/.436 which is what a lot of people think he will do in the majors- hit for medium to lower average, get on base and slug a little bit. He has 2 HR and 4 SB's so far. He is still striking out in almost a third of his AB's which isn't great so I think there is some work to do yet but strikeouts will always be a part of his game.
2. Anthony Rizzo 1B AAA- Rizzo is destroying AAA for the 2nd year. His line is an ungodly .372/.422/.638. His OPS is over 1.000. If it weren't for LaHair's monster start in the bigs people would be clamoring for Rizzo and as it stand his performance already has the Cubs looking for ways to get both in the lineup. Coming into this year the knock on Rizzo is that his swing gets a bit long and he is always changing his swing mechanics and in his short stint in the big leagues both were exploited big time. So it will be much harder to say when Rizzo has made the right adjustments based on his stats because he killed AAA last year as well. But since stats are all I have to evaluate performance you have to be pleased with his first month in the system.
3. Javier Baez SS EXST – What he isn't giving shoutouts to his "n**a's" on twitter or telling opposing coaches he can do whatever the fuck he wants to Baez has done wellish in Arizona so far. But honestly it's not hard to see flaws in his game- he has stuck out 13 times in 44 ab's and hasn't drawn a single walk. One of the biggest knocks on him after the draft was his plate discipline and he has yet to draw a single walk in his career. So in a way he is the perfect capstone to Hendry's legacy. His defense at SS is pretty weak with 6 errors already and the aforementioned attitude issues all give us reason to curb our enthusiasm for now. Look for him to head to Boise once June rolls around.
4. Spellcheck Jr OF High A – Szczur started off really really slow but as of late has picked it up. What you like to see is the improved plate discipline but the power he showed is largely missing. He is still an AGGRESSIVE BASE RUNNER! so that should moistened Sveum's panties. Daytona is in a big time pitchers league so if Szczur can get his line up a bit you would really like to see him get to AA before the season ends.
5. Trey McNutt P AA – Well it hasn't been the glorious reclamation of top prospect status we wished for but it hasn't been DOOM yet either. McNutt has only allowed 1 ER in 14.2 IP which is great but he has walked 7 hitters which isn't great. He has struck out 13 which is great but he has never got past the 4th inning which is not great. He also spent 7 days on the DL with blister problems again which plagued him last year as well. It's hard to know what to think with this guy we know he has 2 plus pitches so he should get at least a B + on his bullpen test but I suppose with our system being what it is you should give him every chance to prove he isn't a SP. Let's take a wait and see approach.
6. Dillon Maples P EXST – Maples has yet to pitch this year as he is recovering from some kind of injury. He stated on twitter the other day that he should begin throwing sometime soon so there's that.
7. Dan Vogelbach 1B EXST – Vogelbach's line is not that impressive and his defense at 1B makes you really hope the DH gets here in the next year or so but its still EXST and its hard to make much of these numbers just yet. Vogelbach might go to Boise or he might stay in AZ for rookie ball.
8. Junior Lake SS AA- Lake hurt his back towards the end of ST and has just now started to play ball again in EXST. Look for him to head to AA in the next week or so barring a setback.
9. Wellington Castillo C AAA- Before Soto's injury Castillo was murdering AAA pitching to the tune of ..320/.435/.520. Soto's slow start has a lot of fans pining for a Castillo/Clevenger tandem behind the plate but I would like to see if Soto can heat up a bit and rebuild some trade value. The average starting catcher doesn't hit for as much power as Soto does so it would be nice to get a semi decent return before we cut bait but either way the future is in Castillo.
10. Dae Eun Rhee P AA – Well that stat line is pretty brutal but he seems to be facing a bit of bad luck. His strikeouts are there but this is definitely a make or break year for Rhee who does have a great changeup to go with a high 80's low 90's fastball.
11. Josh Vitters 3B AAA- Meh. Thats the best word to describe his season so far and his career in general.
12. Jeimer Candelario IF EXST- He is batting very well down in Arizona and should be in Boise in June. AZ Phil reports that his defense is pretty brutal in the IF and thinks a move to the OF is in his future.
13. Marco Hernandez SS A – The Cubs have a history of not being afraid to aggressively promote guys and after the season Hernandez had last year I wasn't totally surprised that he got the spot in Peoria vs Baez but its been brutal so far. There isn't much to say about a .314 OPS so I won't say much.
14. Chris Carpenter -Traded So lets make this spot for Adrian Cardenas IF AAA- Cardenas is ready for the big leagues. That much is pretty clear from his performance at Iowa. There is no way this kid can't do what Blake DeWitt is doing and do it better. He should be a nice utility player for the next several years.
15. Rafael Dolis RP – We all have seen Dolis walk a bunch of people as well as look good at times. Pretty much the life of a RP.
16. Zach Cates P High A- Sickels wrote that Cates was a possible breakthrough before the season and I think he has totally broken through his floor. Cates has been awful so far in a pitchers league. Somebody get this kid a bullpen test and fast.
17. Ben Wells P A- Wells is a favorite of mine. I like his frame and his sinker and think we could have a future 3 starter in him. Its been a mixed bag so far in Peoria but a few of his bad starts have been hindered by terrible IF defense. Look at his GO/FO ratio and that tells you right away he still has the big sinker. No HR's allowed helps as well. He has shown excellent command so far and I hope his secondary stuff improves to get more K's. Still really high on this kid.
18. Dave Sappelt OF AAA- Sappelt is struggling in Iowa so far but has enough of a minor league track record to suggest that things will turn around. Its going to be really hard to find a place in Chicago this year though so I would look for him to spend all year getting to know Des Moines.
19. Ronald Torreyes IF High A- Torreyes had been a hitting machine before he came over in the Marshall deal and really he was the best hope to get a star in that deal. So far its not happening for him in Daytona as he is hitting ..215/.286/..304. Its early though and his track record suggests he will be back at .300 before too long.
20. Reggie Golden OF A- Golden has always been more hype than substance as he has never really done much in the field to justify his 2nd round selection and that has stayed true in Peoria. Golden will probably be looking for a new job or a different organization before much longer.
(dying laughing)
other guys who have cropped up would be Francescon and Jensen both in Peoria.
Reading this isn’t quite as bad as reading how the top 20 did last year, but it’s pretty close. The biggest disappointment for me so far is Brett Jackson. He hasn’t been bad, but there’s a lot to work on and my expectations have tempered a bit. I’d now easily put Rizzo in the top spot. We might see LaHair move to LF mid-season.
@ dylanj:
But every time we mention how well PJ Francescon is doing he sucks.
oh and Austin Kirk in Daytona.
Line-up to-day vs some reds pitcher (probably Bailey)
RF DeJesus
2B Barney
SS Castro
1B LaBomb
LF Soriano
3B Stewart
CF Johnson
C Geo
P Dempster
eh, its just a month. I think that kind of line is what you can expect in the majors from Jackson to be honest. He will be valuable until he nears free agency.
@ dylanj:
I think that’s exactly the line you’d expect in the big leagues, but that’s in AAA. The big thing with him this season last I looked is that his BABIP fell back to earth. As you say, it’s early, but I’ve tempered my expectations. Then again, I was thinking he had a chance to be a legitimate super star so that’s where I’m coming from.
@ Aisle424:
Probably should be a forum post, but whatever.
My new state (NC) is having a vote on May 8th to add to the NC Constitution that states:
It’s such bullshit and the amount of hate that comes from bigotry sickens me. All the churches with their signs “The bible says homosexuality is a sin”.. Who gives a shit what other people do with their lives. Let them be happy or let be able to get divorced.
Sorry, the political talk, will stop, NOW.
the state of NC just cant handle custody issues which is why they banned hetero divorce. Oh wait….
This post has a lot of words.
Also, I agree that I get more excited about come-from-behinds. But there was a certain prickly feeling when Pat yelled “No hitter! Carlos Zambrano has just pitched a no-hitter.” I didn’t scream and jump around like an idiot like I did in that CFB against the Rox in 2008. That was magical.
I think in the tail end of most no-hitters or perfect games you pretty much know that the pitcher’s going to win and the only suspense is whether he gets that last out without giving up a knock. Whereas in a come from behind or other performances you’re more on your toes because you want to see whether guys get on base, whether a ball sneaks through, etc…may be a function of preference but I enjoy both in different ways. One is just for “history” and the other for sheer excitement.
So…what injury DOES Dillon Maples have, and when was Whitenack supposed to be coming back from Tommy John?
@ Rice Cube:
Good call. I think that nails it. The tension is much higher in a come from behind because you’ve already pretty much given up. Plus, games like that are why people watch baseball, on average. You watch all 9 innings because you never know what can happen. That feeling of potential in the face of adversity or the potential to fail in the face of certain victory is one of the key dramas in the game.
Sorry, didn’t mean to get all philosophical. Penis.
Uh….
http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/03/11516576-student-left-in-cell-for-4-days-files-20m-claim-against-dea?lite
Way to go, DEA.
no idea on Maples and Whitenack is pitching in EXST and doing well so far
Isn’t the best of philosophy kinda like the tallest midget?
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/05/03/we-now-know-for-certain-that-carlos-zambrano-has-changed/
Proof that Z has changed = Heath Bell not dead
@ jtsunami:
Are you my friend’s redneck dad who called English and history “entertainment majors”?
Suburban kid wrote:
Precisely (dying laughing)
I support Oregon State and their beavers.
Looking at this list, the Cubs have to draft an arm with the first pick, no?
BPA
@ WaLi:
FLAGGED
@ dylanj:
I usually agree with BPA but the arms in the Cubs system are pretty bad. Picking that early, I would assume there should be some quality arms available. Anybody know what the Top 10 prospects look like for the draft?
So Starlin Castro is strong now.
How the shit is there a game on already? I haven’t even had my lunch!
jtsunami wrote:
Just checking. I thought you might be the reverse-snob washing machine repairman who sneered at me in my married student housing apartment asking “so what are you studying to be?” When I replied “educated”, he just turned his buttcrack to me and got back to fixing the appliance.
josh wrote:
What is this I don’t even
Rice Cube wrote:
MLB.TV highlight monkeys aren’t at work yet. Was it crushed?
@ Suburban kid:
It was hit pretty much to dead center, so yes
@ WaLi:
http://thinkprogress.org/lgbt/2012/05/02/475141/brunstetter-caucasian/?mobile=nc
(1) Ban gay marriage
(2) ???
(3) Less minority babies
(4) Caucasians rule the earth
(5) Profit
@ Suburban kid:
I have to admit, that’s the best response I’ve ever heard to that question.
@ Suburban kid:
What the hell kind of time is 11 am for a baseball game to start??
@ Suburban kid:
I was going to say I hadn’t even had my morning shit yet, which was true, but I didn’t want to use ‘shit’ twice in a single post, for compositional reasons, not vulgarity reasons.
LABOMB
LaOppo
Wow, this game has no reds TV coverage
Bryan lahair might be an allstar
If there was a satisfaction survey for Bryan LaHair, I’d give him all 5s (scale of 1-5).
I enjoyed DeJesus’s soccer move when the ball took a funny bounce.
Lahair is going to have 40 HR and 65 RBI.
Cubs are only 5 and a half back in the wild card.
@ Suburban kid:
It’s gonna happen!
Geo!
Homer Bailey living up to his name
Dempster trying to get paid
Regarding the draft, here are the top 100 draft prospects: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/early-draft-preview/2012/2612884.html
@ Suburban kid:
First or second wild card?
hey md i just got an email asking to moderate a normal comment. What do i do to turn that off?
@ GBTS:
Bonus Wildcard! Double Skills!
Oh, right, I thought we were playing a Japanese gameshow there for a moment.
@ mb21:
Heard a lot about that Zunino kid.
@ mb21:
Prospect #8…..Brian Johnson…..LHP/1B? Sounds like a Cub to me.
@ dylanj:
You can check your profile. It might be there. If it’s not let me know and I’ll look around this weekend. I assume that’s where it is because I don’t get any emails.
Dempster’s ERA is ace-worthy.
mb21 wrote:
Disappointing list. Not a single name there that even comes close to Rock Shoulders.
@ uncle dave:
I like Max Fried. Sounds like a measurement for meat cooking.
josh wrote:
Are you why NC has to ban gay marriage?
I’m surprised Dempster was left in that long. Only 100 pitches though, and most were low stress.
Dempster is good. I hope he declines arbitration so we can get a draft pick back if he’s not traded (dying laughing)
@ Mucker:
Sounds like the 2nd lead singer of AC/DC to me
Demp is done. Nice outing.
Vitters —-> First home run of the year
Transformation: Complete.
So Marmol pitching two days in a row? Let’s see what happens!
Oh, Marmol…
this is not going to end well
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Marmol…
Marmol!
That extension is looking great right now.
Poor Dempster. Doesn’t look good for a W.
This really sucks for the rest of the team
Carlos Marmol sucks.
Carlos doing his Heath Bell impression.
It also sucks that they had bases loaded and 1 out, and failed to score when Soto struck out looking. Contact would have scored a run.
Marmol basically has one pitch anymore.
Marmol is pretty shitty.
Marmol is just… he’s just done, isn’t he?
@ mb21:
And he has no idea where it’s going.
Jesus Christ…
And what’s sad is that the next reliever is going to be the one getting the “blown save”. Oh joy, it’s Dolis.
@ Rice Cube:
Just another example why the blown save is useless
@ mb21:
not just blown save, but saves in general.
Are the Cubs the only team with relief pitchers that can’t relieve?
@ Mucker:
They just can’t throw strikes. Worst BB/9 in MLB.
@ mb21:
Looked more like 0 pitches to me
@ mb21:
This bullpen is complete fucking shit.
Or wait, maybe I was wrong, I assume the guy who has those runs charged to him gets the BS?
@ Mucker:
My gut says no, but they have to be one of the worst.
Had Dolis been brought in earlier, I think the Cubs still would have won.
@ Mucker:
Dolis has been the sole bright spot. But they knew that when they traded Marshall.
wow, is that some shit. guy is like ricky vaughn out there.
@ Nate:
Yep. But Marmol is the “Closer” and therefore untouchable I guess.
Guess they have to deal with Marshall again?
classic win probability graph.
Cubs bullpen: Dolis and Russell. Everyone else is poo poo platter.
We need to dump some of these bums man. It’s early but this sucks to watch knowing we have options in the minors. It’d be nice to get some of the young RP arms a cup of coffee before we are actually trying to compete. Beliveau and Rhoderick are ones I’d love to see here.
Ondrusek!
Marmol WPA = -.701
@ gaius marius:
That graph has to take into account that it’s the Cub’s bullpen so the WE% should never be under 50%.
@ gaius marius:
Wheeeeeeee
jtsunami wrote:
@ Rice Cube:
Not sure that Dusty’s strength is knowing when to leave-in/pull pitchers
/bitter 2003 Cub fan’d
@ gaius marius:
Ricky Vaughn was more entertaining.
so, who thought a month ago that this club’s WAR leaders would be Spellcheck and LaHair?
I don’t know what’s worse…..watching the Cubs or my nephew’s 6-8 year old league.
@ gaius marius:
Not sure if I can embed that in the comments, but let’s try…
Source: FanGraphs
@ mb21:
I once saw an interview with Gary Coleman where he said something to the effect of “now, I don’t consider myself a clairvoyant, but one day I had this terrible feeling, like some great tragedy was going to happen. And then I turned on the television, and saw that Chernobyl happened.”
I don’t consider myself a clairvoyant, but I had this terrible feeling, like the Cubs would lose today. And then Carlos Marmol was put in the game.
Jesus Fuck this team is terrible.
Marmol’s fastball has only touched 95 a couple times in the last two seasons
(dying laughing): http://chicago.sbnation.com/chicago-bears/2012/5/3/2996501/jay-cutler-kristin-cavallari-middle-finger
nice play Dolis. this club is fucking goat-cursed.
Goodnight Cincinnati.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
This game is hilarious.
@ gaius marius:
Tiger blood
and here i thought Votto would beat us. we couldn’t even get to Votto.
Wow that was awesome!! This team is going all the way!!
Just seeing what it feels like to be a Reds fan.
Cubs lose.
Fuck. I know we are going to lose games and shit, but you shouldn’t lose when you have a 3-0 lead in the 9th.
Dempster has been excellent. Garza has been excellent. Christ, at least maybe we can trade them for something decent. At this point I don’t know who on the Cubs wouldn’t welcome a trade.
When is the most practical time to just release Marmol? I figure they could give him more time to sort shit out, but at some point they probably have to just cut their losses.
@ josh:
And Samardzija has been good/great. LaHair has been excellent. Castro has been Castro.
If we had a fucking bullpen this year we might be .500*
*Disclaimer: I’m not sure how many losses have come from the bullpen
I guess they did give Dolis the BS. Weak.
(dying laughing)
Cubs owe Marmol $10M in 2013.
@ Rice Cube:
I’m with you. I don’t want to see him anymore. Last year was painful with him. This year has been a nightmare.
I know the team is shit, but they can at least be somewhat pleasant smelling shit, especially with the starts they’ve been getting. For Demp and Garza’s sake, I’d like to see him pitching for a team that counts.
@ WaLi:
I know 3 definite losses because of the pen. Today and the first 2 games against the Nats to open the season. And there’s probably a couple more.
@ WaLi:
I can count at least three times the bullpen has blown great starts. The first two games and today. That’s close to .500 right there. I bet you can find one or two more easily already.
@ Mucker:
Hey, motherfucker! GET OUT OF MY HEAD!
@ josh:
(dying laughing) I said it first.
I don’t really care about them being .500 because they suck and aren’t going to win anytime soon. But I hate to see guys pitch gems and get hosed like that.
@ josh:
I’m done with Marmol too for the same reasons. I thought he might be able to bring it back this year giving him the benefit of doubt, but he has just been shit. And as MB pointed out, his velocity is down. His H/9 are up. BB/9 are up. HR/9 are up. His K/9 is still decent, but has been dropping.
Does he still have options or has he been in the majors for too long?
@ Mucker:
I agree. They can at least win 2/5-3/5 of the time when they get good starts. When Maholm or Volstad are pitching, seeing them lose is not that surprising.
@ WaLi:
Probably up to long.
@ WaLi:
I think he can’t be demoted without permission. They’d pretty much have to release him.
@ josh:
So we would probably have to make up some injury to send him to the DL and that way he can practice sucking in the minors. Unless we think he can clear waivers (and if he accepts to be optioned). Or we just straight up release him. Would anyone accept a trade based on his excellent 2010?
Mucker wrote:
Well, at least they have the satisfaction that they had a sabermetrically awesome day. I fully expect this team to enter the top 10 on the SI rankings.
@ WaLi:
I don’t think anyone will trade for Marmol at this point. Way too expensive and totally not worth it.
@ Rice Cube:
He has a WPA of -1.99 for the year so far (dying laughing)
I think if Marmol could have been moved, they would have done it the day after Theo took over.
The thing is, why is Sveum afraid to make a change so that Marmol isn’t the RP making the most appearances? Give him some time to do bullpen sessions and make an appearance every 3rd or 4th game until he’s right.
Trotting him out there 4 times a week is obviously not helping the win column or his trade value. It’s bad biz.
to anyone watching the game:
i am confused by the double play in the 9th…no outs and it seems like the infield was playing back (otherwise, no DP). why? why would they not be playing way up to get the force at home when the tying run is at stake?
It’s sad to think of how unbelievable Marmol was in ’07 and ’08.
@ jtsunami:
I don’t know this for sure but since Marmol is one of the most logical pieces that they want to get rid of, there might be a mandate to keep trotting him out until a certain date, whereupon Sveum can find a better option. Just a last-gasp effort to reclaim some trade value, nothing more.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I’m guessing that was a gamble (I had the same question as you) because if they could get two outs instead of one, yay. Also, a base hit practically wins the game, so they played back in that case…? I’m not sure what most managers would do or what “The Book” or whatever says. If everyone was playing back I would’ve called for a squeeze bunt to preserve an out and get that tying run in, but then I’m sure MO’s head really would’ve exploded (dying laughing)
(I posted in the wrong thread.)
I’m really glad I missed this game. Ugh.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Keith’s explanation was that they wanted to get two outs because Dolis is a douple play pitcher, not a K pitcher, and to keep anything from getting through the infield. Something like that.
EnricoPallazzo wrote:
I think they were almost conceding that the game was going to be tied and were hoping to get out of it and still have a chance to win in extras.
If Castro comes home and gets the out , then the next batter still bats with the winning run in scoring position and less than 2 outs. Considering Dolis has controlissues of his own, getting as many outs as possible and living for another inning was probably what they were thinking.
I wish Dolis had been brought in when it was still 3-1, but I don’t know how long it took for him to get ready.
Make LaHair the closer. Why not? He’s doing everything else for this team.
For those not on Twitter, AC is a dad again.
@ ACT:
It would be great if his K-rate translates to the pitching mound.
I’m assuming it’s OK I post this here since he tweeted it out to the world.
Congrats! I will congratulate him on Facebook.
@ Aisle424:
I’m sure he’ll appreciate that you didn’t add Yellon.
@ jtsunami:
To be fair, Marm’s BABIP in ’08 was .169.
Marmol’s best season was 2010. That was incredible, and the reason he got that contract extension. Unfortunately, it was also unrepeatable.
@ Aisle424:
Had he been stripped of the title?
/jackass
//congrats AC (as if you are reading this)
GBTS wrote:
Don’t think I didn’t consider it.
@ Aisle424:(dying laughing)
I did look for him, admittedly.
I sure am glad I left in the top of the 9th for a tedious work meeting. It was definitely more fun than that shitshow (dying laughing)
@ Aisle424:
(dying laughing)
Congrats, AC.
Sveumy says Russell and Dolis are on the shortlist for the closer job.
Congrats AC!
(dying laughing)
Gotta give props where props is due. Solid twitter burn.
Hows do you smart doods get them fancy lookin twitter embeds?
@ GBTS:
I think you need privileges to do that.
And speaking of Twitter:
@ GBTS:
I hope Carlos Marmol isn’t the pilot.
@ mb21:
Racist.
(dying laughing) WaLi, just saw your comment on The Book blog. (dying laughing)
@ mb21:
I stole it from MIsh, but he didn’t post it, so….
I love how MGL completely backtracked and said “I am as excited as anyone” yet his title says “These kinds of things don’t excite me at all,”
@ WaLi:
I got a kick out of that too. MGL is just nuts on that one.
I really have no idea how that could be something SK would think I’d write. I might piss on people’s parades at times, but come on. I’m not that bad.
MGL is the literal opposite of Yellon: a pessimist because he thinks TOO much.
@ WaLi:
I don’t mind at all. I should have posted it.
Thanks for pointing out that thread, I hadn’t read it since morning. I just recently enjoyed it. (dying laughing)
@ uncle dave:
Re Names in Top 100 prospect list…
Dave–you don’t like
Skye Bolt and Pat Light? I think the latter just lost his part time job with TSA.
My favorite is Buck Farmer. Great name for a pro athlete.
Mariano Rivera —-> torn meniscus. Done?
@ Rice Cube:
Do they have another camera angle on this? I’d like to see the rest of it.
I guess there’s a new thread up.
@ Suburban kid:
Oh, Internet. Is there nothing you can’t do?
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=f5d_1172741350
Mish wrote:
That’s for people who don’t leave their tabs open overnight.