There’s a movie coming out this week. Perhaps you’ve heard of it. It’s based on a book that Bill James didn’t write. It goes by many names: Joe Morgan’s Book of Nightmares; The Joy of Stats; The Unbearable Lightness of Beane; Eat, Pray, OBP. Most people just know it as Moneyball. But it’s the subtitle that interests me as this Cubs season comes to a close:
The Art of Winning an Unfair Game.
Now, the unfairness pointed out in the book (or to anyone who knows that $20 million is less than $200 million) is the economic imbalance in Major League Baseball. Billy Beane has been charged with the seemingly impossible task of winning on a budget that other teams could spend on a single free agent. The unfair game Michael Lewis describes is the business of baseball. But the game itself is pretty unfair as well.
That’s what I love about it. Baseball is unfair. At least in small samples it is. Baseball is a game designed to allow the lesser team the opportunity to win a good portion of the time. It allows relatively poor hitters to have storybook success. Scott Podsednik hit a walkoff homerun in the World Series. That’s not fair. It shouldn’t happen. In a controlled scientific environment, you could put the mass of Scotty Pods’ offensive production opposite the weight of a World Series victory on the scales of probability and never tip the balance in his favor. But on the field of play, unfair things happen. The best team wins most of the time, but not so much that the Cubs can’t ever fly the W flag.
Take Reed Johnson. Please. At least that was the sentiment I had coming into this season when the Cubs brought him into spring training as a non-roster invitee. Only, a funny thing happened on the way to fifth place: Reed Johnson proved to be more solution than problem. That’s not fair. It isn’t fair to opposing pitchers, opposing managers, naysaying Cubs fans, or the betting public. Here were the ZiPS projections for Reedz heading into the season:
| OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | Spd | BABIP | wRC | wRAA | wOBA | wRC+ |
| .306 | .360 | .666 | .101 | 5.7 | .309 | 21.8 | -7.0 | .295 | 76 |
So, you know, not good. His OPS was supposed to be downright evil. If baseball were a fair game, the bearded wall crasher would not have made much of a contribution to the Chicago National League Ball Club. But here’s what happened between the white lines where cruel injustice reigns:
| OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | Spd | BABIP | wRC | wRAA | wOBA | wRC+ |
| .355 | .479 | .834 | .164 | 4.1 | .398 | 38.4 | 9.4 | .362 | 124 |
Maybe Reed Johnson is better than we thought. But if that’s true, his last several seasons lied to us about how good he is. . . . Unfair! Maybe he’s just been lucky this year. Also unfair. Or maybe Reed just became a more talented player, or his circumstances this season were better. Maybe he read Moneyball. I don’t know.
What I do know is that it’s not disappointing to see someone outperform his projections or defy my morbid skepticism. It’s unfair, but it’s cool. As much as anyone likes to see their predictions come true, I think we all like to watch the games both to see the most talented players play really well and to occasionally see guys we like perform better than how we know we should.
Unless you don’t like Reed Johnson, in which case 2011 has been patently unfair. But that’s really what being a Cubs fan is all about.
Overall, it’s just part of why baseball is fun, the unpredictability of it. It’s a game in which the win is unreliable statistic. The best team doesn’t always win. The team who plays the best doesn’t always win. Right now, looking forward to 2012, that’s really the only hope we have.
Now it’s just a matter of watching the movie to see if the A’s can win it all.
I may have fallen asleep while writing this. So if it appears that entire paragraphs are missing, I probably just dreamed them. In which case they were phenomenal.
Two of my favorite “unfair”moments:
What are the odds that this guy’s most famous play would be a home run?
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=13062871
Self-explanatory:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=9966159
Yay, an AC article!
Should I spoil it for you?
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Speaking of unfair…just shared to our facebook wall:
*really sad face*
(2004, BTW)
[quote name=Rice Cube]Speaking of unfair…just shared to our facebook wall:
*really sad face*
(2004, BTW)[/quote]All of their jerseys hang in my closet. So it’s obviously my fault.
I had to fix the tags slightly.
[quote name=Aisle424]I had to fix the tags slightly.[/quote](dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]Speaking of unfair…just shared to our facebook wall:
*really sad face*
(2004, BTW)[/quote]For one, brief, shining hour….there was Camelot.
Then the evil wizard Bartman had to ruin it all.
Dan Beebe ——-> unemployment line
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]
[/quote]
I’ve seen those window stickers all over the place in New England, but rarely saw them in WI or TX
[quote name=Berselius]I’ve seen those window stickers all over the place in New England, but rarely saw them in WI or TX[/quote]The irony is, I never saw them in 1996, but I seem them a lot in 2011.
[quote name=Berselius]I’ve seen those window stickers all over the place in New England, but rarely saw them in WI or TX[/quote]Families in WI and TX are too fat to fit on a single window
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]Families in WI and TX are too fat to fit on a single window[/quote]
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/aramis-ramirez-opts-out/
What’s the big deal about Castro getting 200 hit at home? These are the same fans that made fun of him and his hair when he came up and booed him relentlessly as a 20 year old who made a couple errors in an inning. Fuck those assholes.
Great job, AC.
Didn’t Derek Jeter make the greatest play in the history of sports? (dying laughing)
Blue Jays’ allegedly new logo:
I like it. Very retro.
[quote name=Mucker]What’s the big deal about Castro getting 200 hit at home? These are the same fans that made fun of him and his hair when he came up and booed him relentlessly as a 20 year old who made a couple errors in an inning. Fuck those assholes.[/quote](dying laughing), good point. Also these are the same fans whose shoddy behavior compelled Lou to hand Starlin his debut on the road.
[quote name=Mucker]What’s the big deal about Castro getting 200 hit at home? These are the same fans that made fun of him and his hair when he came up and booed him relentlessly as a 20 year old who made a couple errors in an inning. Fuck those assholes.[/quote]He’d have gotten an ovation if he got the 200th hit at home. Other than that it doesn’t mean much.
[quote name=mb21]Great job, AC.
Didn’t Derek Jeter make the greatest play in the history of sports? (dying laughing)[/quote]Ask Derek Jeter. He’ll tell you.
Re: the slightly controversial Marlins logo:
http://www.fangraphs.com/not/index.php/brainstorming-sessions-that-begat-the-marlins-logo/
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Ask Derek Jeter. He’ll tell you.[/quote]
Plus show-and-tell:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=3134880
I’ve seen it many times. It’s a great play. And, yeah. Great play.
I still say Giambi was safe.
[quote name=Mucker]I still say Giambi was safe.[/quote]That would’ve made Moneyball even more special. Alas, I think he was out and the ump made the right call.
/distraught A’s fan’d
Giambi might have been out even if he had tried to slide to the outside of the bag like he should’ve.
OBP doesn’t always overcome stupidity I guess.
Appropriate for this thread, from Joe Poz:
http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/09/21/moneyball-the-movie/
[quote name=Mucker]I still say Giambi was safe.[/quote]It looked like the tag hit his calf the instant before he touched the plate.
To me it looks like Posada missed him on the tag until Giambi was standing on the plate. I thought it was a bit unnecessary too. To me it looked like Jeter should have just let the ball go and they would have had Giambi nailed. I think he made the play closer then it should have been.
Saw a post on G+ that Berkman was extended for one year by the Cardinals, no other info tho.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Appropriate for this thread, from Joe Poz:
http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/09/21/moneyball-the-movie//quoteThat's weird that they omit Zito and Tejada. Could they not afford their likenesses?
[quote name=Mish]Saw a post on G+ that Berkman was extended for one year by the Cardinals, no other info tho.[/quote]By Brandon Phillips standards, that’s a slap in the face.
[quote name=Mucker]To me it looks like Posada missed him on the tag until Giambi was standing on the plate. I thought it was a bit unnecessary too. To me it looked like Jeter should have just let the ball go and they would have had Giambi nailed. I think he made the play closer then it should have been.[/quote]I thought the throw was off-line, to the backstop part of the plate, so Posada would’ve had to reach further back to get Giambi.
But I guess it’s more fun to think that Jeter usurped the play (dying laughing) Does anyone remember who the third base coach was?
[quote name=Rice Cube]I thought the throw was off-line, to the backstop part of the plate, so Posada would’ve had to reach further back to get Giambi.
But I guess it’s more fun to think that Jeter usurped the play (dying laughing) Does anyone remember who the third base coach was?[/quote]I’ll have to watch again. I can’t get it at work. But I thought the ball was coming right down the line. I could be misremembering though.
[quote name=Mucker]I’ll have to watch again. I can’t get it at work. But I thought the ball was coming right down the line. I could be misremembering though.[/quote]No, it would have been way off line. Considering how close the play was, Giambi scores easily
ACtually, it might have been online, but it was slowed big time by a bounce. Giambi would have been safe.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I thought the throw was off-line, to the backstop part of the plate, so Posada would’ve had to reach further back to get Giambi.
But I guess it’s more fun to think that Jeter usurped the play (dying laughing) Does anyone remember who the third base coach was?[/quote]I don’t know….but it looks like Rickie Henderson.
[quote name=josh]I don’t know….but it looks like Rickie Henderson.[/quote]Ron Washington.
[quote name=josh]Ron Washington.[/quote]I wonder if he had coffee with Ivan DeJesus.
Ugh, the Angels are pulling themselves into the AL WC race. I fucking hate that organization as much as I hate Red Sox fans. Go Rays, I guess (dying laughing).
[quote name=Berselius]Ugh, the Angels are pulling themselves into the AL WC race. I fucking hate that organization as much as I hate Red Sox fans. Go Rays, I guess (dying laughing).[/quote]Why the Angel hate? Is it because they are the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim?
[quote name=josh]Why the Angel hate? Is it because they are the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim?[/quote]
Some of it is that (dying laughing). It’s irrational and hard to pin down. Just never liked that franchise for some reason. They always seem too boringly old-school, in a bad way.
According to MLB.com, Berkman signed for $8M.
So apparently the 90′s Braves pitchers were a bunch of filthy cheaters:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/21/so-those-great-90s-braves-teams-were-doctoring-baseballs-awesome/
I’m sure congressional hearings and lots of righteous indignation will follow!
[quote name=Rice Cube]That would’ve made Moneyball even more special. Alas, I think he was out and the ump made the right call.
/distraught A’s fan’d[/quote]I think he was out as well.
[quote name=The Wreckard]So apparently the 90′s Braves pitchers were a bunch of filthy cheaters:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/21/so-those-great-90s-braves-teams-were-doctoring-baseballs-awesome/
I’m sure congressional hearings and lots of righteous indignation will follow I will never understand why baseball fans care about cheating so much. Cheating is as much a part of the history of baseball as the baseball is.
[quote name=Berselius]Some of it is that (dying laughing). It’s irrational and hard to pin down. Just never liked that franchise for some reason. They always seem too boringly old-school, in a bad way.[/quote]As opposed to the super exciting and awesome old-school, in a good way? (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) I will never understand why baseball fans care about cheating so much. Cheating is as much a part of the history of baseball as the baseball is.[/quote]Bring back the spitball, I say!
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) I will never understand why baseball fans care about cheating so much. Cheating is as much a part of the history of baseball as the baseball is.[/quote]Complaining about cheating is just as traditional.
So who else is excited for Rodgers v. Steltz and Meriwether on Sunday?
/notthisguy
[quote name=mb21]As opposed to the super exciting and awesome old-school, in a good way? (dying laughing)[/quote]
The Twins don’t bother me at all, despite also being an old school org
I don’t see a problem with people complaining about cheating. People have always disliked cheating, and that’s the way it always will be. Sports are entertainment, and people want it to be played by certain rules, and when players don’t follow the rules, it’s less entertaining to them. Just like when you watch a movie, you don’t root for the people who cheat, people don’t want to root for real people who break the rules. They want people to succeed because of talent, determination and luck. Nothing wrong with that.
[quote name=GBTS]So who else is excited for Rodgers v. Steltz and Meriwether on Sunday?
/notthisguy[/quote]
This guy.
Given how things have gone for GB in the past few games Cutler should have a big day when he’s not on his back. I’m baffled at how many passing yards the Pack have given up. The second half of last game made some sense since Williams and Collins were out, but still.
[quote name=Berselius]This faget.[/quote](dying laughing)
[quote name=GBTS]So who else is excited for Rodgers v. Steltz and Meriwether on Sunday?
/notthisguy[/quote]Won’t it be Conte, not Steltz? Either way, that secondary is going to get shredded.
The real reason to watch this game is to see which OL gets their franchise QB killed first. (dying laughing)
Trib today hinted that it would be Steltz.
[quote name=GBTS]Trib today hinted that it would be Steltz.[/quote]Terry Boers said it best: if it comes down to the Bears having the choice between the obviously right option and someone they “like,” they will make the wrong choice every single time.
I predict if Steltz starts, he’s back on the bench before halftime. It’ll be Archuleta all over again.
[quote name=ACT]Complaining about cheating is just as traditional.[/quote]Fair enough.
FML. Omiyale will start RT. The Packers’ Jack LB must be licking his chops.
[quote name=ACT]I don’t see a problem with people complaining about cheating. People have always disliked cheating, and that’s the way it always will be. Sports are entertainment, and people want it to be played by certain rules, and when players don’t follow the rules, it’s less entertaining to them. Just like when you watch a movie, you don’t root for the people who cheat, people don’t want to root for real people who break the rules. They want people to succeed because of talent, determination and luck. Nothing wrong with that.[/quote]I rooted for Tony Soprano and am rooting for Walter White. Neither are good people and in fact they’re about the worst people around.
I get your point though. I guess my argument is more about the lack of context that people seem to have. I understand that people want a fair game. That would be awesome, but it’s also not realistic. This doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be disappointed, but the anger and hatred directed at only some cheaters is what especially bothers me. Some types of cheating are funny. Oh, he did something that’s so cute, ha ha ha. Oh, he did something that’s awful and he needs to have his legs cut off. All types of cheating aren’t the same, but the only thing I care about is the impact it has on performance. There is no logical way any human being can argue that spitting on a baseball or putting pine tar on it and throwing it every single pitch doesn’t have a far greater impact than steroids. I think the deadball era kind of proves it.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]FML. Omiyale will start RT. The Packers’ Jack LB must be licking his chops.[/quote]Do they have a choice? Needless to say, they need some plays where they get rid of the ball in a damn hurry, either way. The Saints showed how weak the bears are to the blitz.
[quote name=mb21]I rooted for Tony Soprano and am rooting for Walter White. Neither are good people and in fact they’re about the worst people around.
I get your point though. I guess my argument is more about the lack of context that people seem to have. I understand that people want a fair game. That would be awesome, but it’s also not realistic. This doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be disappointed, but the anger and hatred directed at only some cheaters is what especially bothers me. Some types of cheating are funny. Oh, he did something that’s so cute, ha ha ha. Oh, he did something that’s awful and he needs to have his legs cut off. All types of cheating aren’t the same, but the only thing I care about is the impact it has on performance. There is no logical way any human being can argue that spitting on a baseball or putting pine tar on it and throwing it every single pitch doesn’t have a far greater impact than steroids. I think the deadball era kind of proves it.[/quote]My favorite “cheat” is the corked bat, which has been shown to reduce the effectiveness of the bat, because it lightens it and reduces the momentum. The loss of momentum cancels out the springiness of the bat, though maybe a guy can swing faster, which is more just an argument that the guy should be using a lighter bat.
[quote name=ACT]I don’t see a problem with people complaining about cheating. People have always disliked cheating, and that’s the way it always will be. Sports are entertainment, and people want it to be played by certain rules, and when players don’t follow the rules, it’s less entertaining to them. Just like when you watch a movie, you don’t root for the people who cheat, people don’t want to root for real people who break the rules. They want people to succeed because of talent, determination and luck. Nothing wrong with that.[/quote]I’d agree with this if the outrage was consistent. I just don’t understand why using HGH which probably doesn’t actually help you gets you condemned forever but doctoring a baseball which gives you a major advantage doesn’t get any outrage at all.
[quote name=The Wreckard]I’d agree with this if the outrage was consistent. I just don’t understand why using HGH which probably doesn’t actually help you gets you condemned forever but doctoring a baseball which gives you a major advantage doesn’t get any outrage at all.[/quote]Exactly. One is believed to be of no help at all while the other improves every single pitch you throw. If you’re a starter you’re throwing 100 or so pitches. There’s just no way anybody can believe that doctoring baseballs isn’t the type of cheating that has the most impact on the outcome of the game. it’s just not possible. We have an entire era in baseball known as the deadball era, which was partly the result of spitballs being legal. It’s not a surprise that once they outlawed it that offense began to show up.
I think the outrage aimed at players who cheat is understandable, but a bit misguided. As long as there are strong incentives to cheat, it will happen, and the only way to reduce cheating is to make it harder to get away with (i.e., disincentivizing it.) That said, I’m not going to rush to a player’s defense if he gets caught cheating. He knew when he did it that fans of opposing teams would get angry, so that’s the risk he took.
[quote name=josh]Do they have a choice? Needless to say, they need some plays where they get rid of the ball in a damn hurry, either way. The Saints showed how weak the bears are to the blitz.[/quote]Not really, and that’s Angelo’s fault.
[quote name=The Wreckard]I’d agree with this if the outrage was consistent. I just don’t understand why using HGH which probably doesn’t actually help you gets you condemned forever but doctoring a baseball which gives you a major advantage doesn’t get any outrage at all.[/quote]THIS. The only kind of cheating that gets the fans and Holy Writers (blessed be) foaming at the mouth is PED. Any other form of cheating, many of which are far more influential and ubiquitous, are laughed off as some sort of quaint artifact of the game.
To me, it’s not about getting angry at a specific player. It’s about how that anger is misdirected. I don’t have any sympathy for Sammy Sosa for taking steroids. If it wasn’t yet against the rules in MLB, it was against the law and presumably something that could be used to violate the terms of a contract. That doesn’t mean he’s not owed any sympathy though. First, it was the era he played in. The owners, the media and the fans loved every minute of it and helped award these guys with ridiculous contracts and they became not just great players, but heroes to many people. We encouraged their behavior and to not look at ourselves in the mirror in some ways distorts what actually happened. No, myself and you guys are not as much to blame as Sosa or others, but we did have a part in it. So did the media. Perhaps the biggest offender of all was the owners.
The players who broke the rules and/or laws are ultimately responsible for their behavior, but they weren’t the only ones.
I don’t know what people are complaining about. I loved the 700-foot homers.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]THIS. The only kind of cheating that gets the fans and Holy Writers (blessed be) foaming at the mouth is PED. Any other form of cheating, many of which are far more influential and ubiquitous, are laughed off as some sort of quaint artifact of the game.[/quote]I wonder how long it will be before taking PEDs will be laughed at in the same way? We know it will happen. I can just imagine in 50 years writers talking about how Barry Bonds used to shoot up in the locker room and then giggle as if it’s no big deal.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I don’t know what people are complaining about. I loved the 700-foot homers.[/quote]Yep. Same here. I’d gladly watch them again. The most exciting year in baseball in my life was 1998. The Cubs were better in other years and I had a lot more fun watching them, but I never had more fun watching baseball than I did in 1998. If baseball had that every year I’d be in heaven. I don’t even care what they take. That was just awesome.
[quote name=mb21]So did the media. Perhaps the biggest offender of all was the owners.
[/quote]What’s funny is that Wade Boggs makes the owners out to be the victims.
The poor owners had their pockets picked by those players!
[quote name=mb21]Yep. Same here. I’d gladly watch them again. The most exciting year in baseball in my life was 1998. The Cubs were better in other years and I had a lot more fun watching them, but I never had more fun watching baseball than I did in 1998. If baseball had that every year I’d be in heaven. I don’t even care what they take. That was just awesome.[/quote]1998 + Sosa —> RC became a Cubs fan
Dammit. It’s all PED’s fault (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]To me, it’s not about getting angry at a specific player. It’s about how that anger is misdirected. I don’t have any sympathy for Sammy Sosa for taking steroids. If it wasn’t yet against the rules in MLB, it was against the law and presumably something that could be used to violate the terms of a contract. That doesn’t mean he’s not owed any sympathy though. First, it was the era he played in. The owners, the media and the fans loved every minute of it and helped award these guys with ridiculous contracts and they became not just great players, but heroes to many people. We encouraged their behavior and to not look at ourselves in the mirror in some ways distorts what actually happened. No, myself and you guys are not as much to blame as Sosa or others, but we did have a part in it. So did the media. Perhaps the biggest offender of all was the owners.
The players who broke the rules and/or laws are ultimately responsible for their behavior, but they weren’t the only ones.[/quote]For sure. And what I’ve never seen anyone point out is that any owner that turned a blind eye to PED use by his players, was as guilty of breaking the PED rules as any player taking them.
As an aside, I can throw a baseball fairly well and field it adequately, but there is no possible way I can hit a baseball more than 300 feet. The fact that certain players can disintegrate baseballs with brute strength is amazing to me and it’s the home run that generates the most cheers amongst baseball fans in my observations. Maybe it’s hypocritical or whatever for me to be so ambivalent about steroids, but watching moon shots into McCovey Cove in 2001-2004 was something that made me really love baseball.
I mean, I still think Barry Bonds is an asshole, but he can play for my team any day, PEDs or otherwise.
RC, when I lived in Scottsdale, Arizona, I lived right next to one of the Giants spring training practice facilities. I lived there in 1998 and 1999 so the awesomeness was going on at the time. Anyway, you rarely saw Bonds take BP outside. One day though, a friend and I were playing frisbee and out walks the biggest man I’d seen in camp. Just fucking huge. This was 1998 so it was before he started taking PEDs. I don’t think people remember how big he was at that time. He got bigger, but he was a very big man in 1998. At least when you’re that close anyway.
We stopped playing catch just to watch the guy hit and I’ve never seen baseballs pulverized like that before or since. I’ve watched Alfonso Soriano take BP more than a few times and there’s not one Cub in the last 10 years that had as much raw power as he did. I remember a BP session in Cincy back in 2008. Ramirez, Lee and Soto all hit the ball well and a long way. Then came Soriano and it was just different. The sound, the air under the ball, it was just different.
That’s what it was like watching Bonds in 1998. I just hadn’t seen anything like it and to see it up close like that was unbelievable.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/sabermetrics-moneyball-stat-geeks-are-ruining-sports-092211
[quote name=mb21]One day though, a friend and I were playing frisbee .[/quote]
Dirty hippie.
[quote name=Mish]http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/sabermetrics-moneyball-stat-geeks-are-ruining-sports-092211[/quote]What’s weird is that you don’t have to use statistics. The statistics are there to help level the playing field for general managers. That’s like saying stock traders shouldn’t use statistics when putting together your portfolio. If you don’t want to know how that’s all done and play armchair GM, then just don’t.
[quote name=Mish]http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/sabermetrics-moneyball-stat-geeks-are-ruining-sports-092211[/quote]
[quote name=Mish]http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/sabermetrics-moneyball-stat-geeks-are-ruining-sports-092211[/quote](dying laughing)
“The games are about more than stats.” They’re about hero worship and idolizing people in the face of all evidence. They’re about trying to believe something that isn’t real and screaming at people or beating them to death in the parking lot in the hopes that this will make it so.
The only time I got to see Bonds play live, I think it was this game:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN200209270.shtml
It wasn’t all that exciting Bonds-wise, but I later appreciated all the walks as I embraced OBP.
Also, Whitlock’s article made my head hurt.
[quote name=Mish]http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/sabermetrics-moneyball-stat-geeks-are-ruining-sports-092211[/quote]There’s no argument here. It’s just a rant. FOXSports is a joke.
[quote name=josh]What’s weird is that you don’t have to use statistics. The statistics are there to help level the playing field for general managers. That’s like saying stock traders shouldn’t use statistics when putting together your portfolio. If you don’t want to know how that’s all done and play armchair GM, then just don’t.[/quote]Logic doesn’t make sense to people like Whitlock.
I like that the only stat that Whitlock gives that couldn’t easily be calculated by a third grader (VORP) is one that nobody cares about.
[quote name=Rice Cube]The only time I got to see Bonds play live, I think it was this game:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN200209270.shtml
It wasn’t all that exciting Bonds-wise, but I later appreciated all the walks as I embraced OBP.
Also, Whitlock’s article made my head hurt.[/quote]Bonds was just a terrific all around player. He was a first ballot Hall of Famer before he ever injected anything in his body. For some reason, people feel as though that discredits everything he accomplished. Just erase him from the game.
[quote name=mb21]Logic doesn’t make sense to people like Whitlock.[/quote]
[quote name=mb21]Logic doesn’t make sense to people like Whitlock.[/quote]Well, I think it’s more that giving reasons which entail a certain conclusion is far less attractive to them than using emotive language to construct a narrative that confirms a prevailing bias.
I also like that Whitlock swears by John Elway, who no one thinks is the greatest QB of all time using either statistics or intangibles.
[quote name=mb21]Bonds was just a terrific all around player. He was a first ballot Hall of Famer before he ever injected anything in his body. For some reason, people feel as though that discredits everything he accomplished. Just erase him from the game.[/quote]I just find the PED argument to be overblown. PEDs aren’t suddenly going to make Tyler Colvin hit 700 homers over his career or make Randy Wells amass 5000 strikeouts.
[quote name=GBTS]I also like that Whitlock swears by John Elway, who no one thinks is the greatest QB of all time using either statistics or intangibles.[/quote]Not to mention his inexplicable affinity for Jeff George
[quote name=GBTS]I also like that Whitlock swears by John Elway, who no one thinks is the greatest QB of all time using either statistics or intangibles.[/quote]He’s the grittiest. (But he’s pretty good contrary to the use of the word gritty)
[quote name=Rice Cube]I just find the PED argument to be overblown. PEDs aren’t suddenly going to make Tyler Colvin hit 700 homers over his career or make Randy Wells amass 5000 strikeouts.[/quote]Exactly. They aren’t magic beans. But I will say this: of the demonstrable positive effects of steroids (decreased recovery times, increased muscular and cadiovascular endurance, etc) PEDs stand to benefit a pitcher to a far greater degree than they would a hitter.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Well, I think it’s more that giving reasons which entail a certain conclusion is far less attractive to them than using emotive language to construct a narrative that confirms a prevailing bias.[/quote]THIS. A bucket of this.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Exactly. They aren’t magic beans. But I will say this: of the demonstrable positive effects of steroids (decreased recovery times, increased muscular and cadiovascular endurance, etc) PEDs stand to benefit a pitcher to a far greater degree than they would a hitter.[/quote]If anything, they seemed to help sustain Bonds’ production levels. I would think they would help a hitter more early on in his life, help him put in the reps during those crucial early stages when he is training his body and brain to play.
[quote name=GBTS]I also like that Whitlock swears by John Elway, who no one thinks is the greatest QB of all time using either statistics or intangibles.[/quote]
I’ve always liked to show before/after pics of Elway like people do with Bonds. You know, the ones that show someone in his 40s is bigger than when he was in his teens? yeah, those.
Because head size in the 40s compared to late teens = undeniable proof someone cheated! (dying laughing)
Elway looks like Herman Munster without the Frankenstein makeup.
Why don’t these fucknuts just understand that technological and data-based innovations are commonplace in every single aspect of life? Its the 21st goddamn century. Fucking stop light systems are designed using empirical data.
I needed to find the perfect picture, which clearly shows he’s bigger as an adult. (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]I’ve always liked to show before/after pics of Elway like people do with Bonds. You know, the ones that show someone in his 40s is bigger than when he was in his teens? yeah, those.
[quote name=GBTS]Why don’t these fucknuts just understand that technological and data-based innovations are commonplace in every singlw aspect of life? Its the 21st goddamn century. Fucking stop light systems are designed using empirical data.[/quote]Yeah, and that data is ruining the stop sign system. Don’t you know anything?
[quote name=mb21]Yeah, and that data is ruining the stop sign system. Don’t you know anything?[/quote]
Too…much…data!!!!
/Whitlock’d
[quote name=mb21]
I needed to find the perfect picture, which clearly shows he’s bigger as an adult. (dying laughing)[/quote]
(dying laughing), people growing is evidence that they have grown and have therefore ingested substances in their body which made them grow. QED.
RC wins the innernetz.
You won’t believe how much bigger Peyton Manning has gotten. I don’t think there’s been more proof of cheating than this.
^^^^^^^ (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)^^^^^^^^
Anyone who believes Manning got bigger naturally is blind. Nobody grows that much after the age of 2. Nobody.
[quote name=mb21]Anyone who believes Manning got bigger naturally is blind. Nobody grows that much after the age of 2. Nobody.[/quote](dying laughing)
Part of your complete breakfast.
[quote name=mb21]Anyone who believes Manning got bigger naturally is blind. Nobody grows that much after the age of 2. Nobody.[/quote]I for one, didn’t get that big, and I was 2 years old, same as him.
The Marlins pulled a page from the Cubs manual and put Leo Nunez on the restricted list. No reasons given.
EDIT: he also abruptly left the country.
More proof of cheating
[quote name=josh]The Marlins pulled a page from the Cubs manual and put Leo Nunez on the restricted list. No reasons given.[/quote]I’m getting the sense that their FO are a bunch of stone-cold assholes.
Did he leave before or after he was de facto suspended?
[quote name=mb21]More proof of cheating
[quote name=Rice Cube]I can actually see how a bunch of steroids injected into the growing fetus could generate a 7-foot juggernaut…[/quote]The East German Olympic teams agree. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]I can actually see how a bunch of steroids injected into the growing fetus could generate a 7-foot juggernaut…[/quote]Exactly. It’s obvious that steroids were involved. A kid almost born should not grow that much by the time he reaches his late 30s. I was born 6-1, 210 pounds. I am now 6-2, 220.
I did catch an episode of Shaq’s reality show where he went against Albert Pujols in a home run derby. Shaq could barely clear 250 feet while Albert was hitting moon shots into the bleachers. I’m reasonably certain that Shaq and Pujols have about the same amount of strength but obviously one knows how to destroy a baseball with ease.
[quote name=mb21]Exactly. It’s obvious that steroids were involved. A kid almost born should not grow that much by the time he reaches his late 30s. I was born 6-1, 210 pounds. I am now 6-2, 220.[/quote]Cheater. No way you got that inch and 10 lbs honestly.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Cheater. No way you got that inch and 10 lbs honestly.[/quote]It’s been hard going through life knowing everyone thinks I’m a cheater. I recognize most people don’t gain an inch and 10 pounds, but I did it with hard work and dedication. A lot of sweat and tears went into.
[quote name=Calcaterra's Twitter post]Q: What, besides the Cardinals having been in 1st place, can we credit to Ryan Theriot for his time as a starting SS?
Look, all I know is that when he was the starting shortstop R.E.M. was still a band, the Braves had a big lead in the wild card and a possibly innocent man in Georgia had not been put to death. It is what it is.[/quote](dying laughing)
Lawyers are snarky.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Did he leave before or after he was de facto suspended?[/quote]Hard to say. Sounds like after. Possibly directly after, but no one’s talking.
[quote name=josh]Hard to say. Sounds like after. Possibly directly after, but no one’s talking.[/quote]Lots of cloak-and-dagger stuff out of that Marlins FO.
Fifty years later they may find the remains of Leo Nunez in the cornerstone of the new Marlins stadium..
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Like-son-like-father-Christian-Lopez-8217-s-p?urn=mlb-wp20409
This is impressive not because of the catch, but because those box seats actually look really comfortable to sit in. They look like the stadium version of La-Z-Boys.
Pretty good post by ‘Duk:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Aramis-Ramirez-and-Cubs-fans-will-both-easily-mo?urn=mlb-wp20426
[quote name=Rice Cube]Pretty good post by ‘Duk:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Aramis-Ramirez-and-Cubs-fans-will-both-easily-mo?urn=mlb-wp20426/quoteI don’t know if it’s fair to say Rami wasn’t loved. In ’07 and ’08, I felt good every time he came to the plate in a big game. Those were fun years all around, and he was a huge part of that.
I have a soft spot for the quiet guys, maybe.
[quote name=josh]I don’t know if it’s fair to say Rami wasn’t loved. In ’07 and ’08, I felt good every time he came to the plate in a big game. Those were fun years all around, and he was a huge part of that.[/quote]I liked Ramirez a lot because of his bat and that he seemed to give decent efforts on defense even if he did suck at it. Sadly not every fan feels the way we do. It’s amazing how many posts are of the “don’t let the door hit you on the way out” variety. It upsets me.
FOX has basically refused to admit they intentionally lied about Jay Cutler, and they have also basically refused to air an on-air apology.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]FOX has basically refused to admit they intentionally lied about Jay Cutler, and they have also basically refused to air an on-air apology.[/quote]I didn’t need another reason to hate FOX, and yet I have found one.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]FOX has basically refused to admit they intentionally lied about Jay Cutler, and they have also basically refused to air an on-air apology.[/quote]What did I miss?
The Whitlock article cracks me up since I was trying to (but didn’t completely) make the exact opposite point with this post. The better the statistics get, the better you’ll be able to evaluate talent. But that’s what a GM or manager does to enhance their strategy. It doesn’t really affect what the players do once they’re on the field.
And for the fans who are statistically inclined, if anything it enhances their enjoyment of games because they can better appreciate just how improbable some of the things that happen on a baseball diamond really are and whether they’re significant or not. Honestly, when I follow games on twitter or here or wherever, I don’t know anyone who gets more excited watching baseball than the stat freaks.
Hence the Reed Johnson example. Casual fan thinks he had a good season and that all the haters were wrong to doubt him. Stat heads see that he had one of the best seasons of his career and outperformed what conventional wisdom would have predicted. The stat heads appreciate the improvement more than people who just “watch the game.”
I really don’t get the argument Whitlock is making. It doesn’t even make sense or ring true on an emotional level.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]FOX has basically refused to admit they intentionally lied about Jay Cutler, and they have also basically refused to air an on-air apology.[/quote]Well, technically they just lied about the Chicago sports media. I suppose that’s only fitting.
[quote name=AndCounting]Well, technically they just lied about the Chicago sports media. I suppose that’s only fitting.[/quote]What happened?
Baer’s response to Whitlock: http://crashburnalley.com/2011/09/22/the-nerds-are-winning/
[quote name=WaLi]What happened?[/quote]During Bears season opener, they showed graphics of supposed headlines from the Chicago papers saying, “Cutler’s No Leader,” “Jay Quits on His Team,” “QB Bears Ruined Tecmo Bowl.” And Moose was all, “Those were the actual headlines from the Chicago papers.”
It’s just, they were completely fabricated. Most Chicago papers actually got the story right and were appropriately understanding of Cutler’s injury and the Bears’ mishandling of the information. But no papers in Chicago or anywhere ran those headlines. FOX doesn’t much care about that, apparently.
[quote name=uncle dave]What did I miss?[/quote][quote name=WaLi]What happened?[/quote]FOX created “local” headlines ripping Jay Cutler. PFT did some research and foudn that these headlines did not exist, in either local or national papers. FOX’ DoC was just on The Score where he lied his fucking ass off yet again and refused to commit to an on-air apology.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]FOX created “local” headlines ripping Jay Cutler. PFT did some research and foudn that these headlines did not exist, in either local or national papers. FOX’ DoC was just on The Score where he lied his fucking ass off yet again and refused to commit to an on-air apology.[/quote]Did Boers and/or Bernstein give him hell for it?
[quote name=Mish]Did Boers and/or Bernstein give him hell for it?[/quote]They are currently ripping him a new asshole, and Mac and Spiegel (who actually did the interview and B & B re-ran it) raked him pretty good. Mac even stopped talking to the guy about halfway through when it became apparent that it was all spin and no real concern for truth.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]FOX created “local” headlines ripping Jay Cutler. PFT did some research and foudn that these headlines did not exist, in either local or national papers. FOX’ DoC was just on The Score where he lied his fucking ass off yet again and refused to commit to an on-air apology.[/quote]Well, everyone knows that he’s a petulant, spoiled little pussy, so who cares if they lied? The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Am I off base thinking that Cutler will wind up with a similar career and reputation as Jeff George?
[quote name=uncle dave]Well, everyone knows that he’s a petulant, spoiled little pussy, so who cares if they lied? The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Am I off base thinking that Cutler will wind up with a similar career and reputation as Jeff George?[/quote]I don’t buy that line of BS about Cutler for even one second. So, not everyone knows that. Because I don’t know it. So maybe every one but me. And pithy appeals to ignorance are not likely to convince me. Unless I’m missing some heavy use of sarcasm tags on your part.
I think he’ll be far better than George. George was a one-trick pony. He could throw it a long, long way. But his accuracy was shit and he was a statue in the pocket. Jay’s accurate, moves well, and is a much tougher player.
(Sarcasm on the first point but not the second, BTW.)
[quote name=uncle dave](Sarcasm on the first point but not the second, BTW.)[/quote]Noted. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]Speaking of unfair…just shared to our facebook wall:
*really sad face*
(2004, BTW)[/quote]
The picture is missing Mayor McCheese and his 127 ERA+. I remember he started the Sat daygame against the Cardinals in May after the Cardinals blew Meat-tray out of the water the previous day and I pretty much thought the season was over. I believe the next day’s game (Sunday night) was where the Cubs lead 4-3 and Sweaty Joe got Pujols to fly out to the very edge fo the warning track/basket interface to end the game. those Cub-Cardinal series were awesomely entertaining that summer, although I think the Cubs ended up 8-11 against them or something.
George had two tools: prototypical size and a big, big arm.
Jay has those tools, as well as the ability to take a hit, move the pocket and make not just strong throws, but to make strong, accurate throws.
If I had to pick a comp for Cutler’s ceiling, it’s probably Elway. His floor is probably someone like Jim Miller.
[quote name=AB]The picture is missing Mayor McCheese and his 127 ERA+. [quote]
I meant Grimmace, not Mayor McCheese.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I think he’ll be far better than George. George was a one-trick pony. He could throw it a long, long way. But his accuracy was shit and he was a statue in the pocket. Jay’s accurate, moves well, and is a much tougher player.[/quote]I don’t recall George as having accuracy issues, more along the lines of decision-making issues, but maybe my standards for passing QBs have been critically lowered due to overexposure to the other guys Illinois has run out there after his departure…
I think the George comp comes to mind more because of his treatment at the hands of the press rather than by dint of his on-field performance, though you can make a very good argument that George earned his rep while Cutler really hasn’t.
Jeff George did have those great ads for Hardee’s fried chicken in his favor, though. That might tip the balance between the two.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]George had two tools: prototypical size and a big, big arm.
Jay has those tools, as well as the ability to take a hit, move the pocket and make not just strong throws, but to make strong, accurate throws.
If I had to pick a comp for Cutler’s ceiling, it’s probably Elway. His floor is probably someone like Jim Miller.[/quote]Interesting. We may never know unless he gets traded to a team that has five functioning offensive linemen, though.
[quote name=uncle dave]Interesting. We may never know unless he gets traded to a team that has five functioning offensive linemen, though.[/quote]I guess you don’t truly appreciate good line play until you’re a Bears fan, eh? Not as easy as just standing there and taking up space as it seems.
[quote name=uncle dave]Interesting. We may never know unless he gets traded to a team that has five functioning offensive linemen, though.[/quote]That’s probably true. We’ll never know how good Jay can be until he gets to stop running for his life.
This guy got a lot bigger while he was playing in the MLB.
[quote name=ACT]This guy got a lot bigger while he was playing in the MLB.
[/quote]Beer should obviously be banned from MLB as it is a PED.
Alas, Cubs are eliminated…
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/22/twins-snap-11-game-losing-streak-astros-clinch-no-1-pick/
http://northwestern.rivals.com/showmsg.asp?fid=57&tid=163241898&mid=163241898&sid=901&style=2
(dying laughing)
Mb, I was analyzing Elway’s head size in those pics before I realized you were kidding.
Whoa. My Constitutional Law professor just revealed she worked on the Curt Flood case.
Cool.
Who had September 22 in the pool?
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/22/two-bengals-caught-up-in-marijuana-mess/
Manny’s making a comeback!! http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7005342/manny-ramirez-says-seeking-reinstatement-serve-100-game-suspension
(dying laughing)
[quote name=josh]Manny’s making a comeback!! http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7005342/manny-ramirez-says-seeking-reinstatement-serve-100-game-suspension/quoteIt's too bad the Cubs don’t have a DH.
/blasphemy’d
[quote name=Rice Cube]It’s too bad the Cubs don’t have a DH.
/blasphemy’d[/quote]I bet Manny could play third….I mean starting in about July,
[quote name=josh]I bet Manny could stand at third….I mean starting in about July,[/quote].
[quote name=Rice Cube].[/quote]How hard could third base be? Once a week you let a ball go past your glove, the rest of the time you stand there. When the guy shows bunt, run in like you have a play. Easy.
[quote name=josh]How hard could third base be? Once a week you let a ball go past your glove, the rest of the time you stand there. When the guy shows bunt, run in like you have a play. Easy.[/quote]Yeah, I guess the Cubs fans will need another Ramirez to irrationally hate anyway.
They could get Hanley, too.
[quote name=ACT]They could get Hanley, too.[/quote]What would it take to get all three? I’d go all in for that.
[quote name=josh]What would it take to get all three? I’d go all in for that.[/quote]Cubs fans could direct their hate toward the entire left side of the diamond!
Since they want to get rid of Aramis, they could stick Manny in LF, Hanley at 3B and Alexei at SS. It’ll be awesome. Make this happen.
[quote name=josh]Cubs fans could direct their hate toward the entire left side of the diamond![/quote]Oh right, Soriano is still technically a Cub, so the hate will still be there…
I wish they could get Alexei. That guy can field and is a decent hitter, as well.
Hm. mlb.tv is showing Tigers top prospect Jacob Turner tonight. I might check that out.
[quote name=ACT]I wish they could get Alexei. That guy can field and is a decent hitter, as well.[/quote]He’ll do something terrible at some point and be irrationally hated anyway. It’s a way of (L)ife.
[quote name=Rice Cube]He’ll do something terrible at some point and be irrationally hated anyway. It’s a way of (L)ife.[/quote]I forgot about Alexei. Let’s say the Cubs keep Aramis, hire Alexei to play short, put Hanley at 2nd, and Manny in left. They could shift Sori to right.That would give you a Y-shaped hate matrix, with the Ramirezes forming the majority of the configuriation, except in the shift, where the shape becomes more U like. That’s some good hate feng shui.
EDIT: the obvious thing to do, also, is bring back Max Ramirez.
Pujols —> 37 HR, 98 RBI
STL —> moving on up
[quote name=Rice Cube]Pujols —> 37 HR, 98 RBI
STL —> moving on up[/quote]Not bad for the team everyone expected to blow this division out of the water.
(dying laughing) @ TLR pinch-hitting Corey Patterson for the pitcher to sac bunt the leadoff double to 3B with no outs
(dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
WTF. Of course if Corey did it himself then he’s the idiot we’ve known and loved.
[quote name=ACT]This guy got a lot bigger while he was playing in the MLB.
[/quote]It just appears that way, ACT. He was in fact the same size. Maybe even smaller. People do not get bigger as they age. It’s a little known fact. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]Pujols —> 37 HR, 98 RBI
STL —> moving on up[/quote]Those numbers are misleading, since he took a two-month vacation at the beginning of the year (even though he was playing every day.) It’s his fault his team has to scratch and claw its way to a playoff berth.
[quote name=mb21]It just appears that way, ACT. He was in fact the same size. Maybe even smaller. People do not get bigger as they age. It’s a little known fact. (dying laughing)[/quote]Maybe vertical pinstripes make him look bigger, somehow.
[quote name=ACT]Maybe vertical pinstripes make him look bigger, somehow.[/quote]You’d think they’d make him look thinner and taller, not fatter.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/22/what-should-one-do-with-ignoramuses-like-jason-whitlock/
Calcaterra:
Cardinals are close to being a game back in the WC race. I hope the Cubs can play spoiler this weekend, but with Lopez and Coleman scheduled to start, it’ll be tough.
After the Cubs, they get to feast on the Astros. I don’t envy the Braves at all.
The Braves, meanwhile, will be squaring off against Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt. Yikes.
[quote name=ACT]The Braves, meanwhile, will be squaring off against Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt. Yikes.[/quote]The Phillies have had their shares of troubles so it’s not impossible for the Braves to maintain their lead.
So while we’re on the subject of the Phillies (and from two threads back, Bryan LaHair), I saw that H. Ross Gload is still in the majors. He’s, you know, 35, and used to be that quad-A guy that folks were clamoring to get the Cubs to play. Never say never, or something like that…
Cardinals —> bed-shitting mode
[quote name=ACT]Maybe vertical pinstripes make him look bigger, somehow.[/quote]The Yankees also have smaller hats.
[quote name=uncle dave]So while we’re on the subject of the Phillies (and from two threads back, Bryan LaHair), I saw that H. Ross Gload is still in the majors. He’s, you know, 35, and used to be that quad-A guy that folks were clamoring to get the Cubs to play. Never say never, or something like that…[/quote]And he’s amassed an amazing -0.5 rWAR during his time in the majors.
[quote name=uncle dave]So while we’re on the subject of the Phillies (and from two threads back, Bryan LaHair), I saw that H. Ross Gload is still in the majors. He’s, you know, 35, and used to be that quad-A guy that folks were clamoring to get the Cubs to play. Never say never, or something like that…[/quote]Good point. He’s one to watch out for next year. He could break out.
[quote name=mb21]Good point. He’s one to watch out for next year. He could break out.[/quote]In what? Hives?
(dying laughing) @ Cards
[quote name=ACT]And he’s amassed an amazing -0.5 rWAR during his time in the majors.[/quote]Someone had to fill the void Lenny Harris left.
(dying laughing) @ let’s IBB Angel Pagan to load the bases for David Wright with one out (even though it is the top of the 9th in a tie game but still!)
IBB get to Wright. Oy.
I think managers automatically issue an IBB with runners on second and third with 1 out when it’s late and close.
Shut me right up.
[quote name=ACT]IBB get to Wright. Oy.[/quote]Shut us right up (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
TLR —> genius
Oh wait, there’s only two out.
[quote name=ACT]I think managers automatically issue an IBB with runners on second and third with 1 out when it’s late and close.[/quote]It’s an endgame strategy so if they can get the double play it makes sense, I think at the end game you want to maximize WPA rather than run expectancy, is that correct?
(dying laughing) @ Cards
I hope Pujols kills his bullpen (dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]It’s an endgame strategy so if they can get the double play it makes sense, I think at the end game you want to maximize WPA rather than run expectancy, is that correct?[/quote]Yes, but the effect of a walk there on WPA is microscopic. It’s the right move if you can get a favorable matchup, or if you think a double play is likely (considering groundball tendencies of pitcher/hitter).
(dying laughing) @ TLR assuming victory and double-switching out Berkman
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Boy did the Cardinals fuck this one up.
I guess you can’t always predict Motte will walk the bases loaded but seriously…wow. Fail.
Fangraphs has the WPA of the IBB at -.002.
[quote name=ACT]Fangraphs has the WPA of the IBB at -.002.[/quote]Contextual? I mean, the game was still tied and there was one out.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Contextual? I mean, the game was still tied and there was one out.[/quote]By definition, WPA takes those into account.
It doesn’t take specific qualities of hitter/pitcher/defense into account. I think it was likely a mistake to walk Pagan to get to Wright.
[quote name=ACT]It doesn’t take specific qualities of hitter/pitcher/defense into account. I think it was likely a mistake to walk Pagan to get to Wright.[/quote]TLR —> not a genius
Rays > Yankees but only after the Yankees clinched (dying laughing)
Put the pressure on Boston!
Jorge is playing 1B, Gardner and Granderson are given days off. They’d probably say they’re just resting the regulars for the postseason, but they really just want to make things more difficult for the Red Sox.
Matt Moore has 9 K thru 4 IP.
This Rays-Yankees game is like batting practice, except only one team decided to show up.
no cano or a-rod for the yanks, either. and jeter and swisher were pulled
http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/2011/9/22/2443289/fake-dan-beebe-twitter-rant-transcript
Just came back from my constitutional to see the epic loss by the Cardinals. Wow. That feels real good.
Woah! Fake Leo!
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/22/report-leo-nunez-has-been-playing-under-fake-identity/
[quote name=Rice Cube]Woah! Fake Leo!
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/22/report-leo-nunez-has-been-playing-under-fake-identity//quoteYou know, that was exactly what my initial suspicion was.
That or he was smuggling Dominicans into the country or something. There’s a current player who got caught doing that, but I can’t remember who now.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Woah! Fake Leo!
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/22/report-leo-nunez-has-been-playing-under-fake-identity//quote
A below average ERA is considered “effective” for a closer?
[quote name=Rice Cube]Woah! Fake Leo!
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/22/report-leo-nunez-has-been-playing-under-fake-identity//quoteI guess now is as good a time as any to admit that my name is not actually Aisle 424.
Nunez couldn’t have done that for age, right? What’s one year?
[quote name=Aisle424]I guess now is as good a time as any to admit that my name is not actually Aisle 424.[/quote]And you’re one year older?
[quote name=Aisle424]I guess now is as good a time as any to admit that my name is not actually Aisle 424.[/quote]
Berselius is not my real name. It’s actually Burt Macklin.
[quote name=mb21]Nunez couldn’t have done that for age, right? What’s one year?[/quote]
It was probably the best his Wal-Mart forger could do.
[quote name=mb21]Nunez couldn’t have done that for age, right? What’s one year?[/quote]No, no way. There has to be more to the story. I’d be money on it.
[quote name=mb21]And you’re one year older?[/quote]11 months.
B-Ref says he signed when he was 17, which I guess means he was actually 18. So making himself a year older doesn’t seem to have been overly important for signing purposes.
[quote name=Aisle424]B-Ref says he signed when he was 17, which I guess means he was actually 18. So making himself a year older doesn’t seem to have been overly important for signing purposes.[/quote]They like to sign players as young as possible in the DR.
Wandy Rodriguez case study: http://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Lying-about-age-not-uncommon-for-Dominican-1781935.php
[quote name=Rice Cube]Woah! Fake Leo!
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/22/report-leo-nunez-has-been-playing-under-fake-identity//quoteIn the comments:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
This game is so unfair. Full circle.
Yay Rays!
[quote name=josh]They like to sign players as young as possible in the DR.[/quote]Sure but to lie and say you’re 17 when you’re only 18? It’s not like it makes that much difference, you’re still signing the equivalent of a high schooler. I could see if he was 20 and still wanted people to think he was a teenager, but that isn’t the case here.
Angels —> fail
[quote name=Aisle424]Sure but to lie and say you’re 17 when you’re only 18? It’s not like it makes that much difference, you’re still signing the equivalent of a high schooler. I could see if he was 20 and still wanted people to think he was a teenager, but that isn’t the case here.[/quote]It sounds to me (and I’m not an expert or anything) that he just took the first good forgery he could get and didn’t really care about the details. That seems to be the simplest explanation.
[quote name=Aisle424]11 months.[/quote]You’re 11 months old?
Moneyball —-> soaring critical success
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/moneyball/
[quote name=mb21]You’re 11 months old?[/quote]
Is that like roughly 0.917 years old?
[quote name=fang2415]Moneyball —-> soaring critical success
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/moneyball//quote
Good thing Keith Law isn’t a movie critic (dying laughing)
Anyone else realize that Matt Kemp has a legit chance at the Triple Crown?
I’m not going to theater to see Moneyball, but I do want to see it. It’s a different kind of sports movie so I’m kind of surprised the critics have liked it so much.
[quote name=Aisle424]Sure but to lie and say you’re 17 when you’re only 18? It’s not like it makes that much difference, you’re still signing the equivalent of a high schooler. I could see if he was 20 and still wanted people to think he was a teenager, but that isn’t the case here.[/quote]Maybe he was just trying to get some guy to quit hitting on him. “Dude, I’m 17. Back off.”
[quote name=GBTS]Anyone else realize that Matt Kemp has a legit chance at the Triple Crown?[/quote]Is that like having a chance to lead the league in home runs, batting average and RBI?
[quote name=AndCounting]Maybe he was just trying to get some guy to quit hitting on him. “Dude, I’m 17. Back off.”[/quote]I don’t think Alvin has ever been to the Dominican.
[quote name=mb21]I’m not going to theater to see Moneyball, but I do want to see it. It’s a different kind of sports movie which is why the critics have liked it so much.[/quote]
Fixed. It escapes the usual genre penalty because of this.
I actually won two tickets to see a screening of Moneyball in South Barrington with a Q&A with Richard Roeper afterward. Didn’t realize it was on a Monday night. My drive to the theater is going to be almost as long as the movie. (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]I’m not going to theater to see Moneyball, but I do want to see it. It’s a different kind of sports movie so I’m kind of surprised the critics have liked it so much.[/quote]It’s not out here (UK) till November, but I really want to see it now. The trailers looked hit-or-miss, but good films can often have shitty trailers. Also, I didn’t realize Bennett Miller was the guy who did Capote.
RT is sometimes off, but a 94%er is almost always good.
[quote name=mb21]I don’t think Alvin has ever been to the Dominican.[/quote]I wanted to do a quick photoshop using Ryno’s “Al checking his cell” image. Let me just warn everyone: perform a google image search of “Al Yellon cell phone” at your own peril. Good god.
(dying laughing) do a search for Alvin Yellon cell phone. Ryno usually calls him Alviin.
Understand that the results could be even worse. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Aisle424]Sure but to lie and say you’re 17 when you’re only 18? It’s not like it makes that much difference, you’re still signing the equivalent of a high schooler. I could see if he was 20 and still wanted people to think he was a teenager, but that isn’t the case here.[/quote]That article on Wandy Rodriguez made it sound like they turn away 18 year olds at the door. If that’s really how it is, you’d be stupid NOT to lie about your age.
[quote name=AndCounting]I wanted to do a quick photoshop using Ryno’s “Al checking his cell” image. Let me just warn everyone: perform a google image search of “Al Yellon cell phone” at your own peril. Good god.[/quote](dying laughing)
I didn’t know there was an entire anti-Alvin blog. I mean even more specifically than this one.
A few nights ago, I spent about 15 mins trying to convince my roommate that Money Ball is not based on a Bollywood movie. I felt like I was being trolled even though I was an honest argument. Can you even call that an argument?! I guess news organizations do it all the time.
[quote name=josh]That article on Wandy Rodriguez made it sound like they turn away 18 year olds at the door. If that’s really how it is, you’d be stupid NOT to lie about your age.[/quote]Basically, that article said that Wandy did exactly the same thing, but then fessed up. He was lucky because the league went easy on him, partly because he was a good pitcher. He originally wanted to play OF, but he realized too late he wasn’t good enough, so he switched identities with a friend who was a year younger in order to regain eligibility at a different position.
Kind of interesting that Moneyball got what seemed like pretty mixed reviews among sportswriters but universal adulation from movie critics. Somehow I’m slightly more inclined to trust the critics…
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) do a search for Alvin Yellon cell phone. Ryno usually calls him Alviin.
Understand that the results could be even worse. (dying laughing)[/quote]It’s still bizarre, but not as eye-piercingly gross as the Al Yellon cell phone search.
http://www.google.com/search?q=al+yellon+cell+phone&hl=en&biw=1599&bih=801&site=webhp&prmd=imvnso&source=lnms&tbm=isch&ei=o4l8Ts64Cs6msAK_rvw6&sa=X&oi=mode_link&ct=mode&cd=2&ved=0CEcQ_AUoAQ
[quote name=cdw]A few nights ago, I spent about 15 mins trying to convince my roommate that Money Ball is not based on a Bollywood movie. I felt like I was being trolled even though I was an honest argument. Can you even call that an argument?! I guess news organizations do it all the time.[/quote]Oh man, win. Please send your roommate to BCB.
[quote name=fang2415](dying laughing)
I didn’t know there was an entire anti-Alvin blog. I mean even more specifically than this one.[/quote]It didn’t last long, but it was pretty funny while it lasted. I think DJ was part of it, if I recall correctly.
Speaking of movies, has anyone seen Sugar? I thought it was an interesting take on trying to make the big leagues as a Dominican. It makes the Dominican leagues look like a bit like a talent factory.
I’m definitely thinking I’ll rent Moneyball, mostly because going to a movie with an 11 month old is a bad bad idea.
[quote name=josh]Basically, that article said that Wandy did exactly the same thing, but then fessed up. He was lucky because the league went easy on him, partly because he was a good pitcher. He originally wanted to play OF, but he realized too late he wasn’t good enough, so he switched identities with a friend who was a year younger in order to regain eligibility at a different position.[/quote]Soriano did that too, didn’t he? When he was with the Yanks, I think, and they basically shrugged it off an added a year or two to his player page.
He was still Alfonso Soriano though; it’s not like his name was really Paco Zapata El Misterioso Narcotico or something.
[quote name=Aisle424]It didn’t last long, but it was pretty funny while it lasted. I think DJ was part of it, if I recall correctly.[/quote]Good to hear that LeMahieu doesn’t like Alvin either
[quote name=fang2415]Soriano did that too, didn’t he? When he was with the Yanks, I think, and they basically shrugged it off an added a year or two to his player page.
He was still Alfonso Soriano though; it’s not like his name was really Paco Zapata El Misterioso Narcotico or something.[/quote]Soriano started playing in Japan, and to get out of his contract, his agent told the Japanese that he’d lied about his age and thus the contract was void (becuase he was too young when he signed). It’s unclear if that was true, or if they were lying to get out of the contract. Soriano may literally not know what year he was born, Dominican record keeping isn’t the best.
The Japanese league tried to block Sori from retiring and joining the MLB, but the MLB basically told Japan to fuck off.
IIRC there was a lot of shadiness surrounding Fernando Valenzuela’s age too when he was at/after his peak.
I’m guessing whatever Nunez did was worse than fiddle his age by .917 years. Unless the Marlins FO are just even bigger assholes than anybody thought already. (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]Is that like having a chance to lead the league in home runs, batting average and RBI?[/quote]I’m talking about The Triple Crown. Like Yaz and Mantle. Way to make it about numbers, you fucking nerd.
/Whitlock’d
[quote name=fang2415]IIRC there was a lot of shadiness surrounding Fernando Valenzuela’s age too when he was at/after his peak.
I’m guessing whatever Nunez did was worse than fiddle his age by .917 years. Unless the Marlins FO are just even bigger assholes than anybody thought already. (dying laughing)[/quote]There was a similar incident with a player in the Arizona organization, where he lied about his name only and not his age. His visa was revoked and they’ve been trying to get him back, or he ended up going with another team. The point is that that guy didn’t even lie about his age. His age is correct as he gave it, but he changed his name to his nephew’s name. Point is Dominican players do weird shit and we don’t always know why. The Marlins may just have preemptively restricted him knowing he was going to be thrown out of the country anyway, who knows?
[quote name=GBTS]I’m talking about The Triple Crown. Like Yaz and Mantle. Way to make it about numbers, you fucking nerd.
/Whitlock’d[/quote]No one will ever convince me that Doug Dascenzo wasn’t the best player in MLB history. You can shove your numbers up your ass when we argue, too.
[quote name=fang2415]IIRC there was a lot of shadiness surrounding Fernando Valenzuela’s age too when he was at/after his peak.
I’m guessing whatever Nunez did was worse than fiddle his age by .917 years. Unless the Marlins FO are just even bigger assholes than anybody thought already. (dying laughing)[/quote]It may honestly come down to rumor. If dude’s name had a reputation in the Dominican Leagues, so maybe he gives a false just so they don’t turn him away. I get the impression that the Dominican camps aren’t exactly the DMV when it comes to verifying identities.
[quote name=Aisle424]It didn’t last long, but it was pretty funny while it lasted. I think DJ was part of it, if I recall correctly.[/quote]It was DJ’s blog.
[quote name=fang2415]Soriano did that too, didn’t he? When he was with the Yanks, I think, and they basically shrugged it off an added a year or two to his player page.
He was still Alfonso Soriano though; it’s not like his name was really Paco Zapata El Misterioso Narcotico or something.[/quote]For some reason I think it happened twice with Soriano. Once with the Yankees and then once with the Rangers or Nationals.
[quote name=josh]No one will ever convince me that Doug Dascenzo wasn’t the best player in MLB history.[/quote]John Elway won two Super Bowls and the Conn Smythe Trophy. I don’t care what you say.
[quote name=GBTS]John Elway won two Super Bowls and the Conn Smythe Trophy. I don’t care what you say.[/quote]
Typical counting nerdery. Get a fucking life and STFU.
[quote name=fang2415]IIRC there was a lot of shadiness surrounding Fernando Valenzuela’s age too when he was at/after his peak.
I’m guessing whatever Nunez did was worse than fiddle his age by .917 years. Unless the Marlins FO are just even bigger assholes than anybody thought already. (dying laughing)[/quote]I think so too. It’s not uncommon to find out a player’s age has been altered and rarely do you see something like this. It’s strange.
[quote name=GBTS]John Elway won two Super Bowls and the Conn Smythe Trophy. I don’t care what you say.[/quote]
I guess he already has some of the right equipment to try to win the Conn Smythe.
/joke ruin’d
Who the fuck do you nerds think you are with your correct spelling of Conn Smythe?
Even the nerds are taking over the Conn Smythe:
Aisley, you have to post these family photos of yours: http://gizmodo.com/5843037/a-dad-photoshopped-ewoks-into-his-family-pictures-to-convince-his-kids-ewoks-were-real
[quote name=Rice Cube]Even the nerds are taking over the Conn Smythe:
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Aisley, you have to post these family photos of yours: http://gizmodo.com/5843037/a-dad-photoshopped-ewoks-into-his-family-pictures-to-convince-his-kids-ewoks-were-real/quoteWhile that is pretty cool for the dad to do, I fear that the kid will murder him in his sleep when she realizes that it was all a lie.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]All the names on those trophies have ruined hockey for me.[/quote]Don’t worry, I’m sure some of them are misspelled.
[quote name=mb21]For some reason I think it happened twice with Soriano. Once with the Yankees and then once with the Rangers or Nationals.[/quote]Pre-9/11 world.
[quote name=mb21]I think so too. It’s not uncommon to find out a player’s age has been altered and rarely do you see something like this. It’s strange.[/quote]What’s weird is the way they sat on it, and the hurried exit from the country. If he changed his name, that’s a huge problem, form a visa/immigration perspective and he probably gets deported by the government anyway. That’s something people are on the lookout for now. I wouldn’t be surprised if they just sat on it until they had confirmation, then advised him to go back to DR and begin the process with his real name, and that this is much ado about nothing.
[quote name=josh]Pre-9/11 world.[/quote]He lied about his name to the Japanese, and that fake birthday carried over. THe Yanks knew and didn’t care, becuase Sori’s visa wasn’t of the type that needed an age (pre-9/11), and they told the Rangers, who also didn’t care.
[quote name=AndCounting]I actually won two tickets to see a screening of Moneyball in South Barrington with a Q&A with Richard Roeper afterward. Didn’t realize it was on a Monday night. My drive to the theater is going to be almost as long as the movie. (dying laughing)[/quote]Roeper tweeted that he’s taking one of the news helicopters out to the theater and would let a couple of the people who won tickets go with him. So, like, try to be one of those people.
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]Roeper tweeted that he’s taking one of the news helicopters out to the theater and would let a couple of the people who won tickets go with him.[/quote]The modern advancements of rotocraft technology has ruined the experience of driving to see a movie.
[quote name=GBTS]The modern advancements of rotocraft technology has ruined the experience of driving to see a movie.[/quote]No one’s ever going to convince me that taking a horse isn’t faster than flying in a helicopter.
[quote name=josh]No one’s ever going to convince me that taking a horse isn’t faster than flying in a helicopter.[/quote]
No reason. I just like this picture.
http://www.sharapovasthigh.com/2011/09/lets-watch-hockey-player-in-nhl-12-hump.html
[quote name=Aisle424]http://www.sharapovasthigh.com/2011/09/lets-watch-hockey-player-in-nhl-12-hump.html[/quote]I like how the humpee was submissive at first and then said “get the fuck off of me!” and shoved off while the humper stayed down as if in a sex coma.
Pirates —-> literally fell of a cliff, historically speaking:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/The-2011-Pirates-and-history-8217-s-worst-fall-?urn=mlb-wp20582
[quote name=Rice Cube]Pirates —-> literally fell of a cliff, historically speaking:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/The-2011-Pirates-and-history-8217-s-worst-fall-?urn=mlb-wp20582/quoteSo adding “historically speaking” corrects “literally” to “figuratively” in this context?
[quote name=josh]So adding “historically speaking” corrects “literally” to “figuratively” in this context?[/quote]Yes, by the transitive property of FOXSports.
If this attitude holds true, Lincecum could be up for bids every year:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/tim-lincecum-does-not-want-a-long-term-deal/
[quote name=josh]So adding “historically speaking” corrects “literally” to “figuratively” in this context?[/quote]Semantics.
So, when you’re talkin’ baseball with a good friend and he says something about how some good player on his favorite team is really clutch, and you say “there’s no such thing as clutch”, do you feel like a dick after?
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Aisley, you have to post these family photos of yours: http://gizmodo.com/5843037/a-dad-photoshopped-ewoks-into-his-family-pictures-to-convince-his-kids-ewoks-were-real/quoteYou should see the pictures he emails AC, berselius and I.
[quote name=Suburban kid 22]So, when you’re talkin’ baseball with a good friend and he says something about how some good player on his favorite team is really clutch, and you say “there’s no such thing as clutch”, do you feel like a dick after?[/quote]Yes. I didn’t have the heart to tell my nephew there was no such thing as clutch. Maybe he’ll learn it later on. I’m not going to ruin it for him.
[quote name=josh]What’s weird is the way they sat on it, and the hurried exit from the country. If he changed his name, that’s a huge problem, form a visa/immigration perspective and he probably gets deported by the government anyway. That’s something people are on the lookout for now. I wouldn’t be surprised if they just sat on it until they had confirmation, then advised him to go back to DR and begin the process with his real name, and that this is much ado about nothing.[/quote]I do think teams often sit on the information for awhile. I think the second time Soriano’s age was increased was after he was traded to the Nationals. I seem to remember the Nats saying that the Rangers had informed him that he was in fact older than his listed age. Not sure why it’s kept secret initially.
[quote name=Suburban kid 22]So, when you’re talkin’ baseball with a good friend and he says something about how some good player on his favorite team is really clutch, and you say “there’s no such thing as clutch”, do you feel like a dick after?[/quote]I do after I read this: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/clutch_skill_does_exist/
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yes, by the transitive property of FOXSports.[/quote]“Pirates Literally The Worst Team Ever” was an actual headline in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette for three weeks. That’s a real fact.
[quote name=fang2415]I do after I read this: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/clutch_skill_does_exist//quoteThe moral of the story seems to be that clutch does exist but it’s not all that big of a deal.
I hate when people talk about clutch. 99% of the time it means, “Yeah, I no so-and-so has good numbers, but I remember one time he struck out with the bases loaded. I hate that guy.” I’m all open to the idea that certain players are better hitters in certain situations, but I wish people would call it something other than “clutch” to differentiate the idea from folk “wisdom.”
When people like or don’t like a player, they just project things like “clutch” and “selfish” onto them. It’s infuriating.
(P.S., I know the difference between “know” and “no,” despite my previous post.)
People just don’t seem to get that good players are at bat with runners on base more often than bad players (due to being in the middle of the lineup), and also that they are better players than bad players (who bat 8th).
But I still felt like a dick who took the wind out of my pal’s sails. (He was talking about Pablo Sandoval, I think).
As a general rule contact hitters = clutch, for some reason.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/best_and_worst_clutch_hitters_of_the_retrosheet_era
[quote name=Suburban kid 22]But I still felt like a dick who took the wind out of my pal’s sails. (He was talking about Pablo Sandoval, I think).[/quote]I sometimes fell like that online anymore. It does exist to some small extent, but it’s not nearly as much as most think.
Another thing is that for someone as young as Sandoval, we really cannot tell whether he has “clutch” skill or not (even for vets, we can’t be completely sure.)
Yankees are smart: http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/7008129/new-york-yankees-faked-carl-crawford-interest-cost-boston-red-sox
[quote name=ACT]As a general rule contact hitters = clutch, for some reason.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/best_and_worst_clutch_hitters_of_the_retrosheet_era/quoteMy lying eyes tell me that contact hitters are more likely to put the ball in play and so it seems like they’re getting big hits in “clutch” situations whereas certain players (like, let’s say Carlos Pena) will be more likely to take a walk, which isn’t a big hit and therefore not as exciting.
[quote name=ACT]Yankees are smart: http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/7008129/new-york-yankees-faked-carl-crawford-interest-cost-boston-red-sox/quoteSomewhere, berselius is (dying laughing)
[quote name=ACT]Yankees are smart: http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/7008129/new-york-yankees-faked-carl-crawford-interest-cost-boston-red-sox/quoteThey've done that before and I assume the Red Sox have as well. I’m sure it happens to a lesser extent for other teams, but one of the reasons I really like that Yanks/Sox rivalry is that it extends well beyond the playing field. If the Cubs are smart, they’ll drive up the price for Pujols this offseason even if they’re not intending to sign him. Make the Cardinals pay too much to keep him.
The Yankees were also smart to go after Cliff Lee, of course. It’s scary how good they’d be if they landed him.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/must-click-link-whats-the-next-baseball-movie-gonna-be/
Ha!
I get the feeling Carrie Muskat gets sick of answering dumb questions sometimes:
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110922&content_id=25063532&vkey=news_chc&c_id=chc
[quote name=Rice Cube]Somewhere, berselius is (dying laughing)[/quote]
Speak of the devil….
new post http://www.obstructedview.net/articles/major-league-baseball/carl-crawfords-2011-season.html