A thought or two about Carlos Marmol

In News And Rumors by dmick89Leave a Comment

I didn’t make it a secret that I thought the Cubs 3-year extension given to Carlos Marmol last offseason wasn’t a wise decision. Despite that, I made it clear that Marmol was not being paid like an elite reliever and was worth the contract at the time it was signed. This was true even if you consider the discount that arbitration eligible players receive. A second year eligible player is paid roughly 60% of his free agent value and then it increases to 80% his final year of eligibility. Marmol’s contract included those two year and one additional year. It was not a bad contract.

It was, however, an unnecessary one. The Cubs were unlikely to contend in 2011. For that matter, they were also unlikely to contend in 2012 and maybe even 2013. The team also had club control of Marmol through 2012. While teams can and do get discounts when offering 3-year contracts, I was skeptical that it was a good idea. First, they had him for two more years. There was significantly less risk in going year to year with him the next couple of seasons. For a team that wasn’t likely to contend, saving money seemed like the best option. Plus, there’s the unreliability of Carlos Marmol. His walk rate is historically awful. He has a great strikeout rate and as a result his K/BB or the better K-BB% is still good. He had survived on low BABIP’s and a remarkably low HR/FB rate. Neither of these were likely to continue.

I know some Cubs fans thought there was something special about Marmol. Batters made such weak contact against him that he could continue to have BABIP’s in the .250s. He was so difficult to make solid contact against there was no reason he couldn’t sustain a ridiculously low HR/FB rate. That’s what they said.

There may be some truth to that, but last season Marmol’s BABIP was about league average. After posting BABIP’s of .259, .169, and .253 in 2007 through 2009, his BABIP jumped to .293 a year ago and .295 in 2011. Even if he was a pitcher who could be expected to produce weak contact, there was little to no reason to think he could sustain the absurdly low BABIP he had from 2007-2009. We know players regress toward the league average. We had some reason to believe that Marmol’s true talent level BABIP was lower than league average, but nowhere near as much as it had been.

The same was true with his HR/FB rate. In 2007 it was 3.9%. Then it jumped to 9.9%, which is just under league average. Then it fell all the way to 2.6% and 1.6% in 2009 and 2010. This year it was 7.5%. We expected it would have been higher than it ended up being and we can expect it will be higher moving forward. There’s reason to believe his true talent HR/FB rate is not the league average of 10.5%, but it’s not 1.6% like it was in 2010 and it’s not 2.6% like it was in 2008 either. It’s not even as low as the 7.5% he posted this year. Realistically it’s much closer to the 9.9% figure in 2008 than it is to this past season.

Marmol’s numbers have been all over the charts. His ERA in 2007 was 1.43, which was in large part thanks to the typically low BABIP of .259, a low 3.9% HR/FB rate, but also an incredible 91.0% left on base percentage. HIs ERA jumped to 2.68 in 2008 and then again to 3.41 in 2009. In 2010 it fell to 2.55 before jumping way up to 4.01 this season. Marmol had an ERA much lower than FIP from 2007 through 2009. These years are the ones in which he had very low BABIP’s and even lower HR/FB rates. So it’s not surprising. But in 2010 that changed. His BABIP jumped and his FIP was half a run lower than his ERA. This was largely because of the silly 1.6% HR/FB rate. This season his ERA was again, half a run higher than his FIP. Considering the small samples for a reliever in any single season, or for that matter the span of several seasons for a reliever, that’s not too surprising, but I noticed it awhile back.

Marmol’s fWAR was 1.7 and 1.3 in 2007 and 2008. It fell to .6 the following year before jumping way up to 3.0 a year ago and back down to .8 this year. In 2007 and 2007 Marmol was consistently good. Even great from a runs allowed perspective, but just really good from a DIPS (Defensive Independent Pitching Statistics) perspective. The difference between those two year and the last 3 is the walk rate. In 2007 and 2008 it was only a below average 4.54 and 4.23. In 2008 it jumped to nearly 8 per 9 (7.91). It obviously fell the following season, but only to 6.0. It almost certainly had to fall again this year, but only to 5.8.

Despite pitching in lower leverage in 2007 and 2008, he was worth nearly as much in fWAR (3.0) as he’s been since (4.5). The walk rate went from passable to ridiculously bad. His ERA and FIP jumped with it. I don’t know if any pitch f/x guys have looked at Marmol or not, but it seems to me something changed considerably after the 2008 season. As a starter in 2006 it was 6.9 per 9, but then back in the Iowa rotation in early 2007 it was a very good 2.63. Nobody ever expected Marmol to have even average control. His minor league numbers gave little indication that was possible, but I don’t think anyone thought they’d be quite as bad as they’ve been since 2009. I wonder what, if anything, has changed.

He’s throwing a similar number of strikes. 61.5% of his pitches in 2007 were strikes followed by 61.6%, 59.0%, 61.3% and 61.1%. Aside from 2009 when he walked almost 8 per 9, nothing stands out there. If he matched his career high in strike percentage each season (61.56%) he’d have thrown 37 more strikes in 2009. That’s significant, but we already knew that considering his 59% strike percentage. However, it’s only 10 additional strikes in 2010 and 2011 combined.

In 2007 and 2008, Marmol posted a combined 2.13 ERA and allowed 2.36 runs per 9. Since then he’s posted a 3.31 ERA and allowed 3.39 runs per 9. Despite the walks playing a significant role in this and being a significant part of FIP, his FIP is a bit lower (2.92) than it was in 2007 through 2008. This is in large part the result of his crazy low HR/FB rate. There is literally no reason whatsoever to think that Marmol has pitched better the last 3 years than the 2 years prior to that. It would be foolish to suggest it.

I don’t know what to think about Marmol’s future and I’m not sure anyone else does either. He’s certain not headed in the right direction at the moment, but if he could just somehow figure out how to lower that walk rate back to where it was in 2007 and 2008, he’d be an outstanding reliever. There may be some explanation as to the increase in his walk rate in the Plate Discipline numbers Fangraphs publishes, but not nearly enough to make up the entire difference. It’s a lot easier to say how good he could be if his walk rate could drop to 2007-2008 levels, but it’s also not likely. But it is the one thing that stands in his way between being a good reliever to being a great one. It’s just too bad that he’d have to improve so much to realize that potential.

Going forward, the Cubs are probably better off using Sean Marshall as the closer. Marmol may have some trade value, though the Cubs wouldn’t get much in return. Over the last 2-3 years, Marshall has been the better reliever. He’s cheaper, more reliable and quite probably the superior pitcher at this point in their careers.

I doubt the Cubs give up on Marmol though. I think we’ll see him for at least one more year. He has the potential to be great and the potential to be bad. He’ll probably be somewhere in between.


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Comments

  1. Mucker

    I like Marmol but like you said, he needs to figure out how to lower his walk rate to his 07 and 08 numbers. His incosistency is maddening. I don’t see how a manager could be comfortable sending him out there with his command issues.

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  2. Berselius

    [quote name=Mucker]I like Marmol but like you said, he needs to figure out how to lower his walk rate to his 07 and 08 numbers. His incosistency is maddening. I don’t see how a manager could be comfortable sending him out there with his command issues.[/quote]
    Well, I can think of one reason. His career ~12K / 9 as a relief pitcher looks pretty good when it is on.

    Marmol’s inconsistent can be frustrating but it works both ways. When he’s on you don’t have to worry as much about a BABIP-fueled rally. Even when he’s walking guys it’s still somewhat true given how little contact batters make with his stuff.

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  3. Marty

    I don’t think you can say a whole lot about Marmol’s true talent HR/FB percent because it has fluctuated so much year to year. For most starters, yes, HR/FB normalizes to league average. But Marmol is a reliever, and closers in particular seem to make their living on keeping a low HR/FB ratio.

    Even a guy like Kevin Gregg, who gives up homers like it’s his job, has a career HR/FB of 8.4%. You’re saying you expect Marmol to give up more homers than Kevin Gregg going forward?

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  4. Mucker

    [quote name=Berselius]Well, I can think of one reason. His career ~12K / 9 as a relief pitcher looks pretty good when it is on.

    Marmol’s inconsistent can be frustrating but it works both ways. When he’s on you don’t have to worry as much about a BABIP-fueled rally. Even when he’s walking guys it’s still somewhat true given how little contact batters make with his stuff.[/quote]Yeah, I know why they send him out there because he does have the ability to completely dominate. But I’m sure they have their fingers crossed the whole time. (dying laughing)

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  5. mb22

    [quote name=Marty]I don’t think you can say a whole lot about Marmol’s true talent HR/FB percent because it has fluctuated so much year to year. For most starters, yes, HR/FB normalizes to league average. But Marmol is a reliever, and closers in particular seem to make their living on keeping a low HR/FB ratio.

    Even a guy like Kevin Gregg, who gives up homers like it’s his job, has a career HR/FB of 8.4%. You’re saying you expect Marmol to give up more homers than Kevin Gregg going forward?[/quote]
    I’m saying I expect Gregg to give up more home runs going forward and the same for Marmol. Given the sample sizes, we regress toward the mean. I did this prior to last season looking at his fly balls allowed. We expected his HR/FB rate to be about 9.5 to 9.9% (can’t remember where it was in between).

    As for Gregg, consider where he has played. He’s played in Florida and Toronto with just one year in a hitter friendly park. That matters. So yeah, if Marmol continues to pitch in Chicago it would be very surprising if he didn’t allow a higher HR/FB rate than Gregg.

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  6. mb22

    [quote name=Mucker]Yeah, I know why they send him out there because he does have the ability to completely dominate. But I’m sure they have their fingers crossed the whole time. (dying laughing)[/quote]Yeah and the Cubs clearly though he wasn’t reliable this season as he had a couple time outs.

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  7. Mercurial Outfielder

    To play devil’s advocate for a minute: accepting the stipulation the contract was/is unnecessary if the Cubs aren’t going to be in contention for the duration of the deal, I’m wondering if that changes at all if the Cubs plough the cash into the team to re-tool and contend in in 2012 & 2013. Or does Marmol’s regression in those years sort of cancel that out in a way?

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  8. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=Berselius][/quote]To quote KSK, I can’t wait until Peyton gets fat and becomes a bad head coach.

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  9. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=Mucker]I think Peyton Manning should win the MVP this year.[/quote]Because his injury is handing the Colts Andrew Luck on a silver platter? (dying laughing)

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  10. Berselius

    [quote name=Mucker]I think Peyton Manning should win the MVP this year.[/quote]
    He can get the award the same time as Derek Jeter’s gold glove

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  11. mb22

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]To play devil’s advocate for a minute: accepting the stipulation the contract was/is unnecessary if the Cubs aren’t going to be in contention for the duration of the deal, I’m wondering if that changes at all if the Cubs plough the cash into the team to re-tool and contend in in 2012 & 2013. Or does Marmol’s regression in those years sort of cancel that out in a way?[/quote]That changes things for sure, MO. It’s a good point and one I’ve brought up regarding signing Fielder or Pujols. Thanks.

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  12. WaLi

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]To play devil’s advocate for a minute: accepting the stipulation the contract was/is unnecessary if the Cubs aren’t going to be in contention for the duration of the deal, I’m wondering if that changes at all if the Cubs plough the cash into the team to re-tool and contend in in 2012 & 2013. Or does Marmol’s regression in those years sort of cancel that out in a way?[/quote]
    There’s a 50-50 chance that we will contend next year.

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  13. mb22

    http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2011/10/04/red_sox_should_hold_out_for_big_package_for_theo_epstein/

    Would you trade Starlin Castro for Theo Epstein? The idea sounds absurd and Cafardo doesn’t make an especially strong argument in favor of it either. If that’s the cost for Theo, count me in. Has nothing to do with Castor. Nothing whatsoever. The reality is that the GM is going to be more of an impact on this organization over the next decade than Castro ever will be. So if the cost is Castro, count me in.

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  14. Berselius

    [quote name=mb22]http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2011/10/04/red_sox_should_hold_out_for_big_package_for_theo_epstein/

    Would you trade Starlin Castro for Theo Epstein? The idea sounds absurd and Cafardo doesn’t make an especially strong argument in favor of it either. If that’s the cost for Theo, count me in. Has nothing to do with Castor. Nothing whatsoever. The reality is that the GM is going to be more of an impact on this organization over the next decade than Castro ever will be. So if the cost is Castro, count me in.[/quote]
    If the cost is Castro, why would Theo want to come, unless they give him some ironclad 10 year contract or something? Having decent players around has a lot to do with his job security.

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  15. WaLi

    [quote name=mb22]http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2011/10/04/red_sox_should_hold_out_for_big_package_for_theo_epstein/

    Would you trade Starlin Castro for Theo Epstein? The idea sounds absurd and Cafardo doesn’t make an especially strong argument in favor of it either. If that’s the cost for Theo, count me in. Has nothing to do with Castor. Nothing whatsoever. The reality is that the GM is going to be more of an impact on this organization over the next decade than Castro ever will be. So if the cost is Castro, count me in.[/quote]

    How does that work? Is it the same as trading for players? Is it because Epstein is still under contract that we might have to give something up? Also it mentions Epstein becoming president. If Epstein becomes Cubs president which would be considered a promotion, would we have to give up a pick?

    I guess my stance on it is if we can get Friedman without giving up the farm, do that instead. But if we have to give up a player to pick up a good GM, then I guess that’s just the price you have to pay. As you say, a good GM is worth more than a player in the long run.

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  16. ACT

    Funny thing about Marmol is that he was very effective early in the season and both his fastball and slider velocity were down. His slider velocity returned to what it was in the past, but his fastball didn’t, and he was less effective. Maybe it’s a coincidence, or mauybe the lack of separation made him more vulnerable.

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  17. Berselius

    If Theo Epstein were the only good candidate on the market I still wouldn’t want to trade Castro for him, but there are a zillion guys who could step in. We’re forgetting that Friedman, Cashman, and Shapiro could all be available, let alone a long string of assistants, etc. who aren’t as proven but are still much more familiar with running with Ricketts’s stated Red Sox-like org agenda.

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  18. ACT

    [quote name=mb22]http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2011/10/04/red_sox_should_hold_out_for_big_package_for_theo_epstein/

    Would you trade Starlin Castro for Theo Epstein? The idea sounds absurd and Cafardo doesn’t make an especially strong argument in favor of it either. If that’s the cost for Theo, count me in. Has nothing to do with Castor. Nothing whatsoever. The reality is that the GM is going to be more of an impact on this organization over the next decade than Castro ever will be. So if the cost is Castro, count me in.[/quote]Is Theo really so awesome that the difference between him and the next best available GM is worth giving up the Cubs’ most valuable contract? Unless someone can make a convincing case for this, count me out.

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  19. mb22

    [quote name=Berselius]If the cost is Castro, why would Theo want to come, unless they give him some ironclad 10 year contract or something? Having decent players around has a lot to do with his job security.[/quote]I’m assuming that most GMs don’t see Castro as a superstar. There may be a few that see that, but I’d be surprised if it’s more than one or two. I doubt Theo is one of them.

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  20. Berselius

    [quote name=ACT]Is Theo really so awesome that the difference between him and the next best available GM is worth giving up the Cubs’ most valuable contract? Unless someone can make a convincing case for this, count me out.[/quote]
    Yes, this.

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  21. mb22

    [quote name=ACT]Is Theo really so awesome that the difference between him and the next best available GM is worth giving up the Cubs’ most valuable contract? Unless someone can make a convincing case for this, count me out.[/quote]That’s a good point.

    Sounds like Ricketts has 5 candidates in mind. We know 3 of them are Theo, Friedman and Cashman. Pretty good chance the 4th is Shapiro and I’m betting the 5th is Colletti.

    Let’s say that Cashman and Friedman stay put and you’re left with the other 2. Is Theo good enough to trade Castro? I’d certainly trade Castro to get Theo rather than signing Coletti. I’d also trade Brett Jackson and Wrigley Field and WGN.

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  22. 8volumesthick

    [quote name=mb22]That’s a good point.

    Sounds like Ricketts has 5 candidates in mind. We know 3 of them are Theo, Friedman and Cashman. Pretty good chance the 4th is Shapiro and I’m betting the 5th is Colletti.

    Let’s say that Cashman and Friedman stay put and you’re left with the other 2. Is Theo good enough to trade Castro? I’d certainly trade Castro to get Theo rather than signing Coletti. I’d also trade Brett Jackson and Wrigley Field and WGN.[/quote]
    I haven’t seen an updated list (i’m lazy). Is Rick Hahn not being considered. Seems like he’s a good candidate and doesn’t cost a thing.

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  23. Berselius

    I feel like I’ve also seen talk of a white sox asst GM as well as one of Epstein’s deputies. I don’t think Coletti is high on the list

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  24. Rice Cube

    Instead of Castro, how about a package with catchers? Boston’s quasi-weak spot this year seemed to be in their catching corps, so maybe you throw in Geovany Soto and one of Beef Castle/Clevenger. Then you still have whichever of Beef Castle/Clevenger you didn’t trade. Just a thought.

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  25. 8volumesthick

    Seems like it two camps of guys that have similarities (not counting Hahn (W. Sox Asst. GM). Nerdy guys who have dealt with big market teams (Theo, Cash) and nerdy guys who have done more with less (Friedman, Shapiro). I kinda like the guys who have done more with less category.

    In my mind, its more likely that Friedman remembers Pat Burrell as a really bad idea than Theo thinks Daisuke was. That’s in my mind though, which is kinda fucked.

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  26. mb22

    [quote name=Berselius]I feel like I’ve also seen talk of a white sox asst GM as well as one of Epstein’s deputies. I don’t think Coletti is high on the list[/quote]I think that’s the lazy Chicago media.

    Media: hey, there’s this assistant with the White Sox so he has to be a candidate.

    Don’t buy it. Ricketts all but ruled out assistant GMs. When asked specifically about assistants he made some comment that was basically yeah, but….

    Cubs aren’t hiring an assistant unless none of the others want the job.

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  27. mb22

    [quote name=8volumesthick]Seems like it two camps of guys that have similarities (not counting Hahn (W. Sox Asst. GM). Nerdy guys who have dealt with big market teams (Theo, Cash) and nerdy guys who have done more with less (Friedman, Shapiro). I kinda like the guys who have done more with less category.

    In my mind, its more likely that Friedman remembers Pat Burrell as a really bad idea than Theo thinks Daisuke was. That’s in my mind though, which is kinda fucked.[/quote]We’ve talked about that and there may be some truth to it, but I’m worried about about Friedman with a large payroll. He’s been forced to build the Rays the way he has because of their lack of money. We haven’t seen him make terrible mistakes because they don’t have money to make terrible mistakes with.

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  28. Berselius

    I think Theo is their #1 target, if he doesn’t cost anything. Following him it’s Friedman and Cashman, and if they strike out on those two I think they start looking at assistants rather than trading for Theo.

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  29. Berselius

    [quote name=mb22]We’ve talked about that and there may be some truth to it, but I’m worried about about Friedman with a large payroll. He’s been forced to build the Rays the way he has because of their lack of money. We haven’t seen him make terrible mistakes because they don’t have money to make terrible mistakes with.[/quote]It’s about the process. Theo and Cashman have some real clunkers out there but most GMs don’t even have that opportunity anyway.

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  30. mb22

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Instead of Castro, how about a package with catchers? Boston’s quasi-weak spot this year seemed to be in their catching corps, so maybe you throw in Geovany Soto and one of Beef Castle/Clevenger. Then you still have whichever of Beef Castle/Clevenger you didn’t trade. Just a thought.[/quote]I’d go for that. To me it comes down to who the best guy is that wants the job other than Theo if there is a trade to be made. Unlike berselius, I’m certain Coletti is a candidate. I think he’ll be the first one they officially interview for the job. Colletti brings Ryne Sandberg back as manager and Ricketts wants Sandberg as the next manager.

    If Friedman and Cashman re-sign with their respective teams, trading someone for Theo makes a lot more sense than it does right now.

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  31. WaLi

    Why might we have to give up a player to get Theo? Is it because he is under contract? If you were the Red Sox why wouldn’t you make the Cubs give up someone?

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  32. mb22

    [quote name=Berselius]It’s about the process. Theo and Cashman have some real clunkers out there but most GMs don’t even have that opportunity anyway.[/quote]Exactly, b. We also have to mention how damn lucky Friedman has been. I don’t care what any Rays fan thinks, but you don’t get that many prospects to succeed that often. It’s also why I think it’s much more likely Friedman would leave. He’s not an idiot and knows he’s gotten lucky with prospects. When that luck stops and it will, the Rays will suck and there’s not a damn thing he can do about it.

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  33. mb21

    [quote name=WaLi]Why might we have to give up a player to get Theo? Is it because he is under contract? If you were the Red Sox why wouldn’t you make the Cubs give up someone?[/quote]He’s under contract through next year. I do think the Red Sox give him permission to talk to the Cubs, but the Cubs will have to send something along to actually hire him. I never really thought about what they’d have to send until I read Cafardo’s article.

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  34. Berselius

    [quote name=mb22]Exactly, b. We also have to mention how damn lucky Friedman has been. I don’t care what any Rays fan thinks, but you don’t get that many prospects to succeed that often. It’s also why I think it’s much more likely Friedman would leave. He’s not an idiot and knows he’s gotten lucky with prospects. When that luck stops and it will, the Rays will suck and there’s not a damn thing he can do about it.[/quote]Maybe he can give the rays a parting gift of matching 5/15 contracts for Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellickson (dying laughing)

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  35. 8volumesthick

    [quote name=mb22]Exactly, b. We also have to mention how damn lucky Friedman has been. I don’t care what any Rays fan thinks, but you don’t get that many prospects to succeed that often. It’s also why I think it’s much more likely Friedman would leave. He’s not an idiot and knows he’s gotten lucky with prospects. When that luck stops and it will, the Rays will suck and there’s not a damn thing he can do about it.[/quote]
    How much of that is luck and how much of it is
    a. good process finding value in athletes that have value in other ways beside batting (high ceiling guys because of defense or plate discipline)
    b. being in a position where he doesn’t have pressure to rush prospects
    c. How lucky has he been? Longoria and Price one could argue are the only stars. I would hold the jury out on Jennings and Hellickson

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  36. cdw

    Is there any precedent for trading a playing to be able to hire GM under contract? I can see paying money for a transfer fee but not a player. I’m not sure what the surplus value on Castro’s contract looks like but it seems like the transfer fee would be a huge dollar amount if it were paid in Cash instead of Castro.

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  37. Berselius

    [quote name=cdw]Is there any precedent for trading a playing to be able to hire GM under contract? I can see paying money for a transfer fee but not a player. I’m not sure what the surplus value on Castro’s contract looks like but it seems like the transfer fee would be a huge dollar amount if it were paid in Cash instead of Castro.[/quote]Even if you don’t think Castro is a star that’s 7 figures

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  38. Berselius

    If Theo really wants to go they could just let him I anyway as a professional courtesy. It’s not like he hasn’t done anything for the team or anything (dying laughing)

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  39. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Berselius]If Theo really wants to go they could just let him I anyway as a professional courtesy. It’s not like he hasn’t done anything for the team or anything (dying laughing)[/quote]Not for the past four years.

    /ungrateful fanbase’d

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  40. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]True, but it means the Cubs can play chicken with them.[/quote]Depends on when they have to exercise the option. I don’t think there’s any reason that Boston wouldn’t exercise it. I agree that Theo is the Cubs top choice and he should be. I also think the Red Sox give permission and he is signed by the Cubs. I’d also guess someone like Tony Campana and Josh Vitters were sent to Boston in exchange.

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  41. mb21

    [quote name=cdw]Is there any precedent for trading a playing to be able to hire GM under contract? I can see paying money for a transfer fee but not a player. I’m not sure what the surplus value on Castro’s contract looks like but it seems like the transfer fee would be a huge dollar amount if it were paid in Cash instead of Castro.[/quote]I would assume it’s the same as trading for a manager. Castro is too much if Cashman or Friedman are interested. If not, I’m not so sure. I’d trade everyone in the organization to get Theo rather than signing Colletti.

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  42. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]Depends on when they have to exercise the option. I don’t think there’s any reason that Boston wouldn’t exercise it. I agree that Theo is the Cubs top choice and he should be. I also think the Red Sox give permission and he is signed by the Cubs. I’d also guess someone like Tony Campana and Josh Vitters were sent to Boston in exchange.[/quote]I’m already bracing myself for the outrage.

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  43. mb21

    [quote name=8volumesthick]How much of that is luck and how much of it is
    a. good process finding value in athletes that have value in other ways beside batting (high ceiling guys because of defense or plate discipline)
    b. being in a position where he doesn’t have pressure to rush prospects
    c. How lucky has he been? Longoria and Price one could argue are the only stars. I would hold the jury out on Jennings and Hellickson[/quote]I think we can safely say that they are very good talent evaluators, but at the same time, NOBODY is that good. If there’s something special that the Rays are doing, every other team would be doing it soon enough and the success rate just hasn’t changed. The Rays have had a lot of top picks, which has helped and all of their players with potential have worked out. It’s great for them, but it just can’t continue. They may be the best in baseball at it, but the difference between them and the next best or even the worst isn’t all that much. Right now the difference has been ridiculous.

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  44. mb21

    Look at the Brewers as an example. A few years ago they were just awesome at developing talent. They haven’t developed shit since. A couple of their elite prospects failed and that was it. The luck turned.

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  45. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]Look at the Brewers as an example. A few years ago they were just awesome at developing talent. They haven’t developed shit since. A couple of their elite prospects failed and that was it. The luck turned.[/quote]
    And now that window is inching shut, maybe for another three decades (dying laughing). I guess we can’t really laugh as Cubs fans as far as results go though. (dying laughing)

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  46. Rice Cube

    Eric (Gainesville)

    Can you see Billy Beane coming over from the A’s, getting a little more payroll to work with, and building a winner in 2-3 years? Truth be told, I’d take Brad Pitt at GM over Jim Hendry.

    Bruce Levine (1:18 PM)

    I don’t believe Beane is available. However for the right money you will be able to get Brad Pitt.

    Ha.

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  47. WaLi

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Wow, second pitch leadoff homer. Not a good sign, Rays fans.[/quote]It’s okay, there are only two of them.

    /SDSJM

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  48. Rice Cube

    [quote name=WaLi]It’s okay, there are only two of them.

    /SDSJM[/quote]Zing!

    Actually not a bad crowd today. It is the playoffs, after all.

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  49. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]The Rays are running out of extra lives. Let’s see if they remember the cheat code.[/quote]

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  50. ACT

    [quote name=Berselius]So….I’m hearing that Rodriguez never touched the plate. Matt Holliday approves.[/quote]He reached out and touched it after the collision.

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  51. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]And now that window is inching shut, maybe for another three decades (dying laughing). I guess we can’t really laugh as Cubs fans as far as results go though. (dying laughing)[/quote]No, definitely can’t laugh as they’re having a more successful postseason than any Cubs team since 1908 has had other than the 2003 team. (dying laughing)

    But yeah, they’re window is about shut and it will be back to the bottom of the NL Central of them. The same is true of the Rays at some point soon. It’s why I think Friedman would be ecstatic to get the fuck out of Tampa Bay.

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  52. mb21

    [quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint][/quote]Did you do one of Dexter’s dream of carrying the dead bloody body through the lab? I seem to remember that one.

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  53. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=mb21]Did you do one of Dexter’s dream of carrying the dead bloody body through the lab? I seem to remember that one.[/quote]
    Good question. I’ve lost track of a lot of them.

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  54. mb21

    [quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Good question. I’ve lost track of a lot of them.[/quote]You know the scene I’m talking about, right? Pretty sure it was season 2.

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  55. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]If the Cubs hire Epstein, can they please bring Tom Tango along to replace Ari fucking Kaplan?[/quote]
    I would also be okay with Colin Wyers (dying laughing)

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  56. mb21

    I’m good with Tango, but I don’t think he has any interest in making this a full time job. I think he seems content in doing some occasional consulting and that’s about it. Wyers would probably be interested, but if it’s between him and Tippett I’ll take the latter. If it’s between Wyers and Kaplan then obviously I’d rather have Wyers.

    My guess is that if Epstein is hired the team ends up with either Francona or Sandberg as manager and that Tippett comes along.

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  57. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=mb21]You know the scene I’m talking about, right? Pretty sure it was season 2.[/quote]
    Yeah, I remember thinking his mother’s killer looked like Alvin in that scene.

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  58. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Berselius]I wonder how many innings he goes. At least one more. Probably 3[/quote]Might depend on his pitch count, right? He went 7 IP and almost 100 pitches on Friday…

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  59. WaLi

    So we have these safety and motivational carpet rugs at work. I just walked by one that showed a picture of the pyramids and said:

    TEAMWORK
    Many Hands, Many Minds, One Goal

    I think they left out the part about slavery (dying laughing)

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  60. ACT

    [quote name=GBTS]Gritty out by Damon there.[/quote]I am amazed at how often players on the best teams in baseball keep doing this.

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  61. binky

    I’m too lazy to read through the comments, but regarding Marmol, is it possible he hasn’t been as effective because batters are able to be more patient against him? He’s never thrown in the strike zone, but partly that’s because he has that deceptive slider that appears to be a strike in that prime swing/not-swing decision time for the batter. So I’m wondering if opposing batters haven’t figured out to just be more patient against him.

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  62. Rice Cube

    Beltre will have one more plate appearance. What’s the record for most homers by one player in one postseason game? It’s gotta be three, right?

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  63. Aisle424

    I know we can’t expect Friedman to come in and repeat the success he has had building a team with guys from the farm that just keep producing, but holy hell is there a ton of talent.

    I’d take Moore, Hellickson, Price, Longoria, and Jennings over Castro right now, and then they have Zobrist, Shields, and Upton who I’d take over anybody else on the Cubs.

    That is fucking phenomenal and if he could do even half of that with the Cubs, I’d probably be willing to give them my first born child for a single game ticket.

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  64. ACT

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Beltre will have one more plate appearance. What’s the record for most homers by one player in one postseason game? It’s gotta be three, right?[/quote]Yes.

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  65. mb21

    I have a question. Can I kill the next person who talks about some stupid motherfucking Kardashian? Who the motherfucking fuck fuck fuck gives a fucking shit fuck about the Kardashians?

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  66. mb21

    [quote name=josh]I’m too lazy to read through the comments, but regarding Marmol, is it possible he hasn’t been as effective because batters are able to be more patient against him? He’s never thrown in the strike zone, but partly that’s because he has that deceptive slider that appears to be a strike in that prime swing/not-swing decision time for the batter. So I’m wondering if opposing batters haven’t figured out to just be more patient against him.[/quote]ACT already answered this, but I was thinking the same thing. I was surprised to see the swing percentage and many of his other plate discipline numbers be almost identical year in and year out.

    He lost a lot of velocity this season for what it’s worth.

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  67. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]I have a question. Can I kill the next person who talks about some stupid motherfucking Kardashian? Who the motherfucking fuck fuck fuck gives a fucking shit fuck about the Kardashians?[/quote]
    Would you ask Tom Petty that question?

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  68. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]I have a question. Can I kill the next person who talks about some stupid motherfucking Kardashian? Who the motherfucking fuck fuck fuck gives a fucking shit fuck about the Kardashians?[/quote]I was going to post a picture of Gul Dukat but I decided that today was not a good day to die.

    /obscure Star Trek reference’d

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  69. mb21

    [quote name=Aisle424]I know we can’t expect Friedman to come in and repeat the success he has had building a team with guys from the farm that just keep producing, but holy hell is there a ton of talent.

    I’d take Moore, Hellickson, Price, Longoria, and Jennings over Castro right now, and then they have Zobrist, Shields, and Upton who I’d take over anybody else on the Cubs.

    That is fucking phenomenal and if he could do even half of that with the Cubs, I’d probably be willing to give them my first born child for a single game ticket.[/quote]I hope what we see happen regardless of who takes over is that we begin to see players like that in the Cubs farm system. Castro stands out as a star because it’s a fucking miracle the organization developed him. He’s a good player, but not likely to ever be a star.

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  70. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=mb21]I have a question. Can I kill the next person who talks about some stupid motherfucking Kardashian?[/quote]
    What’s a Kardashian? Tell me what you know about it.

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  71. Aisle424

    [quote name=mb21]I have a question. Can I kill the next person who talks about some stupid motherfucking Kardashian? Who the motherfucking fuck fuck fuck gives a fucking shit fuck about the Kardashians?[/quote]I guess I’ll just scrap my post with the tag, This is About Motherfucking Kardashians

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  72. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]Would you ask Tom Petty that question?[/quote]Yes. I support a constitutional amendment allowing me to kill people who mention anything at all related to that retarded fucking family. (dying laughing)

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  73. binky

    [quote name=mb21]ACT already answered this, but I was thinking the same thing. I was surprised to see the swing percentage and many of his other plate discipline numbers be almost identical year in and year out.

    He lost a lot of velocity this season for what it’s worth.[/quote]Yeah, if that’s the case, then the quality of his pitches must be suffering. I don’t know the physics of the slider, but I believe it gains what movement or deceptive powers it has from being thrown really hard. So his sliders may not be fooling anyone, forcing him to throw strikes. Instead of swings and misses, the result is more swing and contact, accounting for the plate discipline numbers, unless the numbers are consistent by pitch type as well. But even then, if he’s having to throw a slider higher up in the zone, it’s still a slider, but now it’s getting hammered instead of weakly dribbled to short stop.

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  74. mb21

    [quote name=Aisle424]I guess I’ll just scrap my post with the tag, This is About Motherfucking Kardashians[/quote]I think I’d probably get in trouble if I killed someone, but it’s crossing my mind more and more lately. I understand the fascination with the royal family even if I don’t have any. I get that. I do not and will never understand how fucks like these Kardashians and other people like them become famous. I mean for fucking fuck sake, the father may have destroyed evidence setting OJ Simpson free. This is not a family that should be cherished. It’s absurd.

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  75. WenningtonsGorillaCock

    [quote name=mb21]Yes. I support a constitutional amendment allowing me to kill people who mention anything at all related to that retarded fucking family. (dying laughing)[/quote]So, you’re committing suicide today? We’ll miss you.

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  76. mb21

    [quote name=josh]Yeah, if that’s the case, then the quality of his pitches must be suffering. I don’t know the physics of the slider, but I believe it gains what movement or deceptive powers it has from being thrown really hard. So his sliders may not be fooling anyone, forcing him to throw strikes. Instead of swings and misses, the result is more swing and contact, accounting for the plate discipline numbers, unless the numbers are consistent by pitch type as well. But even then, if he’s having to throw a slider higher up in the zone, it’s still a slider, but now it’s getting hammered instead of weakly dribbled to short stop.[/quote]I’m guessing part of his regression has been the fastball velocity, but most of it I think is just normal regression. There’s not really anything that stands out in his numbers that scream bad luck whereas there was several things that screamed the opposite before.

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  77. binky

    [quote name=mb21]I’m guessing part of his regression has been the fastball velocity, but most of it I think is just normal regression. There’s not really anything that stands out in his numbers that scream bad luck whereas there was several things that screamed the opposite before.[/quote]Okay. I guess I’ve always felt uneasy about Marmol. Also, there was some discussion on a broadcast this year that slider pitchers are basically a Tommy John surgery waiting to happen. I don’t know how true that is.

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  78. mb21

    I’d also like to see a new law that deals with idiots who claim another person is similar to Hitler. The punishment should be that they are treated as if they were a Jew in Hitler’s Germany.

    Did I just Godwin this thread? (dying laughing)

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  79. mb21

    I think any breaking pitch is hell on he arm, but I’ve always read that the slider is better on the arm than the curve. Don’t know how true that is.

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  80. ACT

    [quote name=josh]Okay. I guess I’ve always felt uneasy about Marmol. Also, there was some discussion on a broadcast this year that slider pitchers are basically a Tommy John surgery waiting to happen. I don’t know how true that is.[/quote]Since he’s a short reliever, I’m not too worried about that.

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  81. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]I’d also like to see a new law that deals with idiots who claim another person is similar to Hitler. The punishment should be that they are treated as if they were a Jew in Hitler’s Germany.

    Did I just Godwin this thread? (dying laughing)[/quote]
    That would be an insult to all other people that have ever suffered for reasons other than Hitler.

    /GROTA dude (dying laughing)

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  82. Aisle424

    [quote name=mb21]I’d also like to see a new law that deals with idiots who claim another person is similar to Hitler. The punishment should be that they are treated as if they were a Jew in Hitler’s Germany.

    Did I just Godwin this thread? (dying laughing)[/quote]I think that is just something that happens. I get e-mails all the time comparing me to Hitler and hoping I die of dick cancer. There are many other problems in this world to deal with.

    /Kurt’d

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  83. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]I’d like to see the Rangers break this game open here.[/quote]If Beltre hits a home run here you may get your wish.

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  84. Aisle424

    [quote name=mb21]I’d like to see the Rangers break this game open here.[/quote]Just to free up Friedman’s schedule?

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  85. ACT

    Oh, yeah, and speaking of making Marshall the closer, can he be the setup man, too? What ever happened to the good old days when ace relievers pitched multiple innings?

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  86. binky

    [quote name=mb21]I’d like to see the Rangers break this game open here.[/quote]I’d like to see a game 5, just because that’s more exciting, but it’s not looking good.

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  87. binky

    [quote name=ACT]Oh, yeah, and speaking of making Marshall the closer, can he be the setup man, too? What ever happened to the good old days when ace relievers pitched multiple innings?[/quote]Egos. Plus “The Closer” makes more money, doesn’t he?

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  88. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]Oh, yeah, and speaking of making Marshall the closer, can he be the setup man, too? What ever happened to the good old days when ace relievers pitched multiple innings?[/quote]I’d love that. I don’t see any reason that Marshall couldn’t pitch 100 to 110 innings as a closer.

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  89. binky

    [quote name=Berselius]Good lord, the Rays radio guys blow. Listening to them this feels like some lazy day game in May.[/quote]Yeah, I noticed that too. They seem somewhat resigned to defeat.

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  90. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]Good lord, the Rays radio guys blow. Listening to them this feels like some lazy day game in May.[/quote]I think the Rays tv announcers suck ass too. I find myself more inclined to watch a White Sox game than a Rays game because of that.

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  91. GBTS

    [quote name=mb21]I think the Rays tv announcers suck ass too. I find myself more inclined to watch a White Sox game than a Rays game because of that.[/quote]Hawk Harrelson is the Hitler of sports broadcasting.

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  92. mb21

    [quote name=Aisle424]Just to free up Friedman’s schedule?[/quote]I don’t like the Rays for the same reason I didn’t like the Mariners a couple years ago. They were the popular team to root for and I hated that. It makes sense to be a Rays fan now, but really, how many of them are going to be around in 5 or 6 years when they suck again?

    I also hate their colors, the ballpark and their announcers. Not a big fan of Tampa Bay either. The only thing I like about them is their front office and that’s just not enough to root for.

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  93. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]I don’t like the Rays for the same reason I didn’t like the Mariners a couple years ago. They were the popular team to root for and I hated that. It makes sense to be a Rays fan now, but really, how many of them are going to be around in 5 or 6 years when they suck again?

    I also hate their colors, the ballpark and their announcers. Not a big fan of Tampa Bay either. The only thing I like about them is their front office and that’s just not enough to root for.[/quote]
    #6org

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  94. mb21

    I still can’t believe that the Mariners were the number 6 organization on that Fangraphs list. They deserved to be mocked about that.

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  95. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]I saw something about Kurt in another thread, but only read a few comments. What’s up with that?[/quote]
    Julie posted that article about poor treatment of women sportswriters to facebook last night, that MO had linked here. Kurt dismissed it because people are mean to him too. Fun times ensued.

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  96. mb21

    And I like the Rangers. I think they’re about as good at evaluating young talent as the Rays are, but the Rays are the popular team to like.

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  97. Aisle424

    [quote name=mb21]I don’t like the Rays for the same reason I didn’t like the Mariners a couple years ago. They were the popular team to root for and I hated that. It makes sense to be a Rays fan now, but really, how many of them are going to be around in 5 or 6 years when they suck again?

    I also hate their colors, the ballpark and their announcers. Not a big fan of Tampa Bay either. The only thing I like about them is their front office and that’s just not enough to root for.[/quote]I like underdogs. It appeals to my nature as a Cubs fan. I wonder what would happen to me if the Cubs ever became a true major market franchise and were constantly the favorites. I guess it doesn’t matter since we’ll have bigger problems what with the world ending and all.

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  98. ACT

    The Rangers are a fun team. I agree with mb21 about the Rays, and would also add that Maddon’s managing style drives me crazy at times.

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  99. binky

    [quote name=Aisle424]I like underdogs. It appeals to my nature as a Cubs fan. I wonder what would happen to me if the Cubs ever became a true major market franchise and were constantly the favorites. I guess it doesn’t matter since we’ll have bigger problems what with the world ending and all.[/quote]Yeah, I tend to root for whatever team seems worst off, since that allows me to pretend that I’m cheering for the Cubs. Unless that happens to be the Cards. Can’t do it.

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  100. Aisle424

    [quote name=mb21](dying laughing) @ Kurt[/quote]It was hilarious. I kind of felt bad for him because people were really piling on and you don’t want to mess with some of the women whom he pissed off over there, but he would not concede on any point and just kept missing everyone’s points.

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  101. binky

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Sam Fuld —> not clutch[/quote]Super Sam!

    ….called out on strikes.

    The Rays announcers finally show life as Sean Rodriguez takes a walk.

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  102. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]The Rangers are a fun team. I agree with mb21 about the Rays, and would also add that Maddon’s managing style drives me crazy at times.[/quote]I don’t watch as much Rays baseball as you do in large part because their announcers are just horrible, but I figure if MGL dislikes Maddon as much as he does there has to be a reason.

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  103. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]I don’t watch as much Rays baseball as you do in large part because their announcers are just horrible, but I figure if MGL dislikes Maddon as much as he does there has to be a reason.[/quote]
    FWIW, I suspect the reason has a lot more to do with MGL than Maddon.

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  104. mb21

    [quote name=Aisle424]It was hilarious. I kind of felt bad for him because people were really piling on and you don’t want to mess with some of the women whom he pissed off over there, but he would not concede on any point and just kept missing everyone’s points.[/quote]If I have time later on I’ll have to see if I can find the discussion. Any links?

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  105. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]FWIW, I suspect the reason has a lot more to do with MGL than Maddon.[/quote]Hasn’t Neyer bashed Maddon before? I also trust ACT here. He does a fantastic job of pointing out the stupidity.

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  106. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]If I have time later on I’ll have to see if I can find the discussion. Any links?[/quote]
    It’s on Julie’s wall, just go to her page.

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  107. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]Hasn’t Neyer bashed Maddon before? I also trust ACT here. He does a fantastic job of pointing out the stupidity.[/quote]
    I think that Maddon is no smarter/dumber than any other manager. People just like to point out the stupid because he’s got a rep as being smart.

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  108. mb21

    I don’t think of the Rays as underdogs that much these days. If anything, I think they’re overrated on a regular basis and given more attention than they deserve. That’s just me though.

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  109. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]I think that Maddon is no smarter/dumber than any other manager. People just like to point out the stupid because he’s got a rep as being smart.[/quote]I agree with that. I think we’ve talked about it before, but I think there’s little difference between most managers. If I could hire any manager in the game, I’d hire Francona. I don’t think he’s much better than any other manager, but I do believe he’s better than most. Not much better though.

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  110. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]I don’t think of the Rays as underdogs that much these days. If anything, I think they’re overrated on a regular basis and given more attention than they deserve. That’s just me though.[/quote]
    Not just you

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  111. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]I agree with that. I think we’ve talked about it before, but I think there’s little difference between most managers. If I could hire any manager in the game, I’d hire Francona. I don’t think he’s much better than any other manager, but I do believe he’s better than most. Not much better though.[/quote]
    Eh, I have no idea with Francona either. What I want is a manager who knows how to keep the media away from his players. Anything else is gravy.

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  112. binky

    [quote name=mb21]I don’t think of the Rays as underdogs that much these days. If anything, I think they’re overrated on a regular basis and given more attention than they deserve. That’s just me though.[/quote]Apparently, you haven’t seen Sam Fuld play. He jumps in the air!

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  113. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]Eh, I have no idea with Francona either. What I want is a manager who knows how to keep the media away from his players. Anything else is gravy.[/quote]Lou Piniella was pretty damn good at that over his managerial career.

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  114. ACT

    [quote name=Berselius]I think that Maddon is no smarter/dumber than any other manager. People just like to point out the stupid because he’s got a rep as being smart.[/quote]It’s not so much that he’s better/worse (I honestly haven’t watched that many Rays games), just that the nature of some of his moves that baffles me. I mean, it’s one thing when a manager makes a move that 99% of other managers would do, but quite another thing (to me) when Maddon issues an IBB with runners on first and second.

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  115. ACT

    He just has a way of making moves that call attention to himself, rather than moves that are easy to ignore because managers make them automatically.

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  116. Rice Cube

    Pujols and Berkman with a double steal. This seems to be the second time this has happened in almost as many days.

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  117. mb21

    [quote name=GW]Go Tigers![/quote]I can’t do that. I don’t think the Yankees have much of a chance of winning this series at this point, but I hope they do.

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  118. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]He just has a way of making moves that call attention to himself, rather than moves that are easy to ignore because managers make them automatically.[/quote]Which is probably a sign that he’s not very good.

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  119. mb21

    Unlike so many others here, I am rooting for the Cardinals. Seeing Pujols play more in the postseason is always a good thing in my opinion.

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  120. Aisle424

    [quote name=mb21]Unlike so many others here, I am rooting for the Cardinals. Seeing Pujols play more in the postseason is always a good thing in my opinion.[/quote]I’d like to see a Brewers/Phillies NLCS with Brewers taking it.

    Then I’m rooting for Texas against whoever wins Tigers/Yankees and then probably Texas overall.

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  121. mb21

    [quote name=Aisle424]I’d like to see a Brewers/Phillies NLCS with Brewers taking it.

    Then I’m rooting for Texas against whoever wins Tigers/Yankees and then probably Texas overall.[/quote]That’s confusing so I’m just going to assume you’re rooting for baseball teams to win.

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  122. GW

    [quote name=ACT]Hamels had a higher pitch count. Still, bad move by TLR.[/quote]
    i’m more of a “times through the order” believer.

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