This will replace last year’s payroll page that can be found on the menu. Last June we looked at what the Cubs payroll would be in 2012 and Matt Swartz has calculated a way to project arbitration salaries so I figured I’d add those in. I’ll update this page when necessary. I refuse to include Koyie Hill. I can’t imagine any scenario in which he’ll remain on the Cubs 40-man roster so instead of having to update it later, I went ahead and got rid of him now.
| Pitchers | DOB | B/T | Ht | Wt | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Alberto Cabrera | 10/25/88 | R-R | 6’4″ | 210 | |||
| Esmailin Caridad | 10/28/83 | R-R | 5’10″ | 195 | |||
| Chris Carpenter | 12/26/85 | R-R | 6’4″ | 220 | |||
| Andrew Cashner | 09/11/86 | R-R | 6’6″ | 200 | |||
| Casey Coleman | 07/03/87 | L-R | 6’0″ | 185 | |||
| Ryan Dempster | 05/03/77 | R-R | 6’2″ | 215 | 14 | ||
| Rafael Dolis | 01/10/88 | R-R | 6’4″ | 215 | |||
| Matt Garza | 11/26/83 | R-R | 6’4″ | 215 | 8.7 | arb 4 | |
| John Gaub | 04/28/85 | R-L | 6’2″ | 210 | |||
| Scott Maine | 02/02/85 | L-L | 6’3″ | 215 | |||
| Carlos Marmol | 10/14/82 | R-R | 6’2″ | 215 | 7 | 9.8 | |
| Sean Marshall | 08/30/82 | L-L | 6’7″ | 220 | 3.1 | ||
| Marcos Mateo | 04/18/84 | R-R | 6’1″ | 220 | |||
| James Russell | 01/08/86 | L-L | 6’4″ | 200 | |||
| Jeff Samardzija | 01/23/85 | R-R | 6’5″ | 225 | |||
| Kyle Smit | 10/14/87 | R-R | 6’3″ | 170 | |||
| Randy Wells | 08/28/82 | R-R | 6’5″ | 230 | 2.2 | arb 2 | arb 3 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 06/01/81 | S-R | 6’5″ | 270 | 18 | ||
| Batters | DOB | B/T | Ht | Wt | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Jeff Baker | 06/21/81 | R-R | 6’2″ | 210 | 1.4 | arb 3 | |
| Darwin Barney | 11/08/85 | R-R | 5’10″ | 180 | |||
| Marlon Byrd | 08/30/77 | R-R | 6’0″ | 245 | 6.5 | ||
| Tony Campana | 05/30/86 | L-L | 5’8″ | 165 | |||
| Welington Castillo | 04/24/87 | R-R | 5’10″ | 210 | |||
| Starlin Castro | 03/24/90 | R-R | 6’0″ | 190 | arb 1 | arb 2 | |
| Steve Clevenger | 04/05/86 | L-R | 6’0″ | 195 | |||
| Tyler Colvin | 09/05/85 | L-L | 6’3″ | 210 | |||
| Blake DeWitt | 08/20/85 | L-R | 5’11″ | 195 | 1.2 | arb 3 | |
| Bryan LaHair | 11/05/82 | L-R | 6’5″ | 240 | |||
| DJ LeMahieu | 07/13/88 | R-R | 6’4″ | 205 | |||
| Lou Montanez | 12/15/81 | R-R | 6’1″ | 195 | |||
| Geovany Soto | 01/20/83 | R-R | 6’1″ | 220 | 4 | arb 3 | |
| Alfonso Soriano | 01/07/76 | R-R | 6’1″ | 195 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
The red text is Matt Swartz’s projected figures. Swartz came up with a total for these 5 of $17.5 million. Based on projected figures back in June, it was $30 million. My own estimates totaled $21.3 million. My estimate was .3 million high on Garza and .1 million high on each of Baker and DeWitt. I estimated $6 million for Soto and my estimate is way off of Swartz’s projection for Wells. After the last half of Wells season, I don’t see how he gets more than what Swartz projected. Soto may get a bit more than $4 million. We’ll use Swartz’s numbers until it’s settled.
The Cubs have $66.6 million in guaranteed contracts for 2012. Including the arbitration eligible players takes it up to $84.1 million for 11 players. The other 14 players on the roster aren’t free. At the very least they’re league minimum players. That’s a total of $5.6 million. The players on the 40-man, but not on the active roster are paid $50,000 so that’s a total of $750,000.
The grand total is $90.5 million. Unless the Cubs trade some players, that is the bare minimum that they’re payroll would be in 2012.
Carlos Pena is paid $5 million next year so that has to be included. The Cubs 2012 payroll, as of right now, is $95.5 million. The Cubs payroll the last 3 years has been between $134 million and $144 million. Some additional money this year (and last) will be diverted into the draft and additional amateur talent. The $134 million payroll last season is probably the maximum that it would be this year. The Cubs are paying more money for people in the front office so that’s a factor. My guess is that it will be about $125 million. That leaves the Cubs with $30 million to spend this offseason.
[quote name=26.2cubsfan]Am I living under a rock? What ever happened to Bud’s 11/1 deadline for Boston and the Cubs to come to an agreement on compensation?[/quote]Supposedly there was an extension.
[quote name=mb21]Supposedly there was an extension.[/quote]You’ll hear about it in the papers around Thanksgiving.
[quote name=mb21]Supposedly there was an extension.[/quote]
Waiting for confirmation from a random guy in a purple shirt. (dying laughing)
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/8553492-573/cubs-more-interestedin-arms-than-sluggers.html
additional notes
Suntimes:
(dying laughing)
Going to dinner in the Cubs organization is like eating an orange in the Godfather.
[quote name=GW]http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/8553492-573/cubs-more-interestedin-arms-than-sluggers.html
additional notes[/quote]CJ Wilson?
[quote name=GBTS]Going to dinner in the Cubs organization is like eating an orange in the Godfather.[/quote](dying laughing)
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/what_did_the_fans_think_of_the_gold_glove_winners/
Looks like Tango agrees with me on Kemp.
I’m thinking the Cubs go after Darvish. If the Cubs are really targeting arms, he would be the most logical fit since he’s still young and would still be in his prime when the Cubs realistically start to contend in 2-5 years and wouldn’t cost prospects that the Cubs don’t really have.
[quote name=mb21]CJ Wilson?[/quote]He does have an arm. Two of them, technically, though I’m sure the Cubs are only interested in one of them.
[quote name=mb21]CJ Wilson?[/quote]
Kuroda might be interesting since he won’t be able to command the years of CJ Wilson because of his age.
But if he can give 3 years at 3.0, 2.5, and 2.0 WAR, that might be a nice stopgap, and still a potential trade piece down the road.
[quote name=Mucker]I’m thinking the Cubs go after Darvish. If the Cubs are really targeting arms, he would be the most logical fit since he’s still young and would still be in his prime when the Cubs realistically start to contend in 2-5 years and wouldn’t cost prospects that the Cubs don’t really have.[/quote]Sounds exciting, if risky.
Nevermind. I thought Kuroda was a FA. He’s only 2nd year Arb eligible.
There’s also Beuhrle. He’s long in the tooth, but remarkably durable, since he throws so softly.
[quote name=ACT]There’s also Beuhrle. He’s long in the tooth, but remarkably durable, since he throws so softly.[/quote]
I’ll pitch for the Cubs before Buerhle does.
[quote name=Aisle424]Nevermind. I thought Kuroda was a FA. He’s only 2nd year Arb eligible.[/quote]
Now I’m confused. B-Ref has Kuroda Arb eligible. MLB Trade Rumors has Kuroda as a FA. What the what? Could he opt out or something?
[quote name=Aisle424]Now I’m confused. B-Ref has Kuroda Arb eligible. MLB Trade Rumors has Kuroda as a FA. What the what? Could he opt out or something?[/quote]He might have been non-tendered.
[quote name=Aisle424]I’ll pitch for the Cubs before Buerhle does.[/quote]That should be a sweet-ass rotation.
Matt Garza
A424
Buerhle
The Ghost of Z
Ginger Man
[quote name=josh]That should be a sweet-ass rotation.
Matt Garza
A424
Buerhle
The Ghost of Z
Ginger Man[/quote]In that order?
[quote name=josh]That should be a sweet-ass rotation.
Matt Garza
A424
Buerhle
The Ghost of Z
Ginger Man[/quote]
I’ve got my fastball up to 72, but it has a late break on it.
[quote name=Aisle424]I’ll pitch for the Cubs before Buerhle does.[/quote]I was going to say the same thing.
[quote name=Aisle424]I’ve got my fastball up to 72, but it has a late break on it.[/quote]
My change-up is really good when it makes it all the way to the plate on a fly.
[quote name=mb21]I was going to say the same thing.[/quote]The rotation will be Aisle 424, MB, AC, Berselius and Alvin before Buehrle throws a single pitch in a Cubs uniform.
[quote name=Aisle424]Now I’m confused. B-Ref has Kuroda Arb eligible. MLB Trade Rumors has Kuroda as a FA. What the what? Could he opt out or something?[/quote]Many Japanese players sign contracts that don’t allow their teams to offer arbitration so they can become free agents.
[quote name=Aisle424]The rotation will be Aisle 424, MB, AC, Berselius and Alvin before Buehrle throws a single pitch in a Cubs uniform.[/quote]Why do you think you’re the ace of that staff? My 64 mph fastball isn’t so impressive, but I have a sweet 12-6 curve that comes in at about 46 mph. I’m pretty sure I’m the ace of that staff. (dying laughing)
I can also switch hit so you don’t ever have to pinch hit for me.
[quote name=mb21]Why do you think you’re the ace of that staff? My 64 mph fastball isn’t so impressive, but I have a sweet 12-6 curve that comes in at about 46 mph. I’m pretty sure I’m the ace of that staff. (dying laughing)[/quote]The ace is only important for Opening Day. Besides, don’t you still have to complete your bullpen test?
I used to be a great catcher…….can I catch for you guys?
[quote name=mb21]Many Japanese players sign contracts that don’t allow their teams to offer arbitration so they can become free agents.[/quote]Or that. Quickie Google search showed that he’d either stay with the Dodgers or consider returning to Japan.
[quote name=mb21]I can also switch hit so you don’t ever have to pinch hit for me.[/quote]OK, we’ll move you up. I can’t hit worth a damn. I’ll fit right in as a NL pitcher.
[quote name=Mucker]I used to be a great catcher…….can I catch for you guys?[/quote]
/innuendo’d
(dying laughing), which one are you RC?
[quote name=Rice Cube]
/innuendo’d[/quote]Not that there’s anything wrong with that
[quote name=Mucker](dying laughing), which one are you RC?[/quote]The smiling one.
Muskat on Big Z:
http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2011/11/02/112-zambrano-tunes-up-with-40-pitch-session/
[quote name=mb21]Fleita has worked exclusively in the minor leagues while Wilken was the director of scouting amateur talent. This signing is a Director of professional scouting (someone who oversees the scouting of Major League teams).[/quote]Ah, that does make sense.
I guess F&W’s roles were going to be awfully diluted no matter what since they’re dectupling the size of the front office.
[quote name=Rice Cube]The smiling one.[/quote]Can you be more specific? They both look like they are smiling.
[quote name=fangraphs]Mark Cuban for Dodgers Owner
by Jonah Keri – November 2, 2011
This article originally appeared on June 23rd.[/quote]
Did Keri stop writing for FG for good or is he just on tour for his book or something? It was a Jonah-thon over there for like two months and then stopped suddenly. Maybe I missed Cameron’s “Jonah cleaned out his locker and is no longer welcome here” post.
[quote name=Aisle424]The ace is only important for Opening Day. Besides, don’t you still have to complete your bullpen test?[/quote]Yeah, I forgot about that. I’ll be in the rotation in June and start Game 1 of the LDS next year.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lacava-turns-down-baltimore-gm-job/
(dying laughing)
[quote name=WaLi]Can you be more specific? They both look like they are smiling.[/quote]Wouldn’t you be smiling too?
(dying laughing)
[quote name=Aisle424]OK, we’ll move you up. I can’t hit worth a damn. I’ll fit right in as a NL pitcher.[/quote](dying laughing) I’m a lot like Zambrano. I can switch hit, I have more power from the left side and swing at every pitch thrown to me. The key differences is that he’s a huge man who can throw in the 90s and he can get MLB hitters out. Other than that, we’re the same.
[quote name=fang2415]Maybe I missed Cameron’s “Jonah cleaned out his locker and has been sent to preach in Nineveh” post.[/quote]
.
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) I’m a lot like Zambrano. I can switch hit, I have more power from the left side and swing at every pitch thrown to me. The key differences is that he’s a huge man who can throw in the 90s and he can get MLB hitters out. Other than that, we’re the same.[/quote]You also came into the OV offices yelling about how much we all suck and AC had to pull you away from B.
[quote name=GW].[/quote]Had to look it up. Now (dying laughing).
[quote name=Aisle424]You also came into the OV offices yelling about how much we all suck and AC had to pull you away from B.[/quote]That’s because Berselius doesn’t want to win. He’s all about the money and I’m all about winning.
(dying laughing). They’re now going to keep him on the roster just to spite you.
I like Kuroda. I always worry about a guy who has been pitching at Dodger Stadium going to a place like Wrigley, but he’s a pretty good pitcher. Probably wouldn’t cost all that much either. He’d probably be a bargain.
2013 list:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html
With all the young elite pitchers on that list, I think the Cubs would want to spend the following offseason instead of this one…
[quote name=Rice Cube]2013 list:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html
With all the young elite pitchers on that list, I think the Cubs would want to spend the following offseason instead of this one…[/quote]
I haven’t looked at the list, but I’m guessing a lot of them get extensions.
[quote name=mb21]That’s because Berselius doesn’t want to win. He’s all about the money and I’m all about winning.[/quote]
We’ve talked about this. B wants to win as much as you do. He just doesn’t wear his emotions on his sleeve like you do. He’s more comfortable with his fagety spreadsheets than going around hating on Starlin Castro all the live long day. There’s nothing wrong with that.
[quote name=mb21]I haven’t looked at the list, but I’m guessing a lot of them get extensions.[/quote]I think that would be the case, but sure would be nice if they were available.
[quote name=mb21]I like Kuroda. I always worry about a guy who has been pitching at Dodger Stadium going to a place like Wrigley, but he’s a pretty good pitcher. Probably wouldn’t cost all that much either. He’d probably be a bargain.[/quote]Yeah, that plus his age, but there is very little buzz about him and I’d think this group might make an appropriate pitch to him that wouldn’t break the bank nor screw us unnecessarily in future years that would still appeal to him.
Speaking of FA deals. I’m wondering if the new regime will be as in love with the backloaded deals as Hendry was. It seems that Hendry always wedged FAs into budgets by backloading the deals so that the extra money was a future problem that didn’t hinder the here & now.
With this group supposedly taking a longer view, maybe the deals start getting more front-loaded and saving a little money overall. Money now is more valuable than money later, so if the Cubs are willing to spend a bit more now to put together this marginal team, it would then free up capital in later years as the minor league presumably start filling in some talent and they can afford a big FA to put them over the top in 2014 or 2015.
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20111102005704/en/Ex-Met-Lenny-Dykstra-Vows-Knockout-Jose-Canseco
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
I don’t know who a good number of these “celebrities” are.
[quote name=Aisle424]I don’t know who a good number of these “celebrities” are.[/quote]Is “Bombshell” McGee the same as Tits McGee?
Awwww…
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Rangers-won-8217-t-show-Ventura-pummeling-befor?urn=mlb-wp26265
[quote name=Aisle424]I don’t know who a good number of these “celebrities” are.[/quote]I think I’ll take TBA over Tila Tequila.
Any predictions on saturday’s National Championship game from NCAA FB fans here? I’m thinking LSU despite being on the road.
[quote name=work sucks]http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20111102005704/en/Ex-Met-Lenny-Dykstra-Vows-Knockout-Jose-Canseco
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)[/quote]How did Jose “ruin” Lenny Dykstra’s career?
I thought all the injuries ruined Lenny’s career.
I’ve mentioned it before, but I like backloaded contracts. I don’t like them as backloaded as the Cubs have given them out, but that’s been due to payroll constraints. Here’s an example of why I like them.
Player A: 3 WAR, 2.5, 2.0
Using $5 million per win (it’s just easier), that’s $15 million next year, $12.5 million the year after and $10 million the following year. It’s a 3-year, 37.5 million contract. Let’s say that $37.5 million is paid out equally across all 3 years. That’s $12.5 million per year.
$12.5 million this year is worth more than $12.5 million next year. The present value of the contract is less than $37.5 million. Lottery winners want a lump sum payment because the longer the money is spread out, the less value it has.
Using Soriano’s contract as an example, the present value of his contract at the time it was signed (if all payments were even) was a little under $100 million, or $12.5 million per year. The more you spend at the end of the contract, as the Cubs did with Soriano, the lower the present value of the contract. The Cubs spent less by paying less up front.
Furthermore, if you paid Player A $15 million, $12.5 million and then $10 million, at no point in the contract do you have surplus value. Player A is paid exactly what he’s worth in all 3 years. But if you instead pay him $10 million, $12.5 million and $15 million, you gain surplus value right away. You’re spending $10 million on $15 million in value. You gain something early on. You give it back later on so it all evens out, but at least you gain something early on by backloading a contract.
The Cubs could feasibly sign Pujols for 8 years and $250 million and become a very, very good team if they backload that contract. If they’re paying $24 million per year, they couldn’t improve enough to be a contender right away. You’re also paying Pujols more money than if you backload it.
If it was up to the player, like all lottery winners, he’d take a lump sum payment of whatever value the contract is. It’s guaranteed money. It’s his. Businesses, like the state, would much prefer to pay you less now and more later.
The problem with the Cubs was that they sucked so bad in 2006 and had to spend so much money to improve. The only way it could be done was by heavily backloading contracts. They spent less money by backloading it than if it had been even, but it made it exceptionally difficult for the team to continue being good.
There has to be a balance somewhere and it’s not paying someone like Soriano so little in years 1 and 2.
Not sure if anyone here other than me reads Kristi Dosh, but she’s now with ESPN: http://espn.go.com/blog/sportsbusiness
I get the value of back-loading deals, but the Cubs aren’t in the position to do that again without doing a 2006 all over again. So maybe they do pay a little more now (and overall) to make sure they have the most flexibility when they will really need it in the future.
I know they say they won’t ever give up on any season, but at the same time, turning this team around seriously is just going to put them back in the exact same spot a few years from now.
[quote name=Aisle424]I get the value of back-loading deals, but the Cubs aren’t in the position to do that again without doing a 2006 all over again. So maybe they do pay a little more now (and overall) to make sure they have the most flexibility when they will really need it in the future.
I know they say they won’t ever give up on any season, but at the same time, turning this team around seriously is just going to put them back in the exact same spot a few years from now.[/quote]My idea of backloading a contract would be quite different than what the Cubs were forced to do. Take a 4-year, $40 million contract. I’d probably pay it out like $9, $10, $10, $11. Something like that. Gives the team some edge early on, it costs slightly less overall, but it’s still reasonable at the end when the player is declining.
FWIW, the Red Sox have mostly stayed away from backloading contracts so I expect that to continue with the Cubs.
Also, it’s important to consider how a signing bonus is figured into the annual budget. If the Cubs sign a player for 4-years and $40 million this offseason, does the signing bonus count toward next year’s payroll? If not, I might do something like this: $3 million signing bonus, $8 million, $9 million, $10 million, $10 million. You’re paying slightly more in overall value by paying $11 million up front, but you’re gaining a little in year 2 and not setting yourself up to suck in the final year. What I don’t want is a 3/24 contract paying the player $1 million, $2 million, $21 million. (dying laughing)
What about Dice-K?
[quote name=mb21]What about Dice-K?[/quote]If Dice-K fails in Chicago even at a reduced price, I think you’d find the Superfriends’ heads on pikes outside Wrigley Field.
I’m guessing Dice-K doesn’t come back to baseball until mid- to late-2012 after his TJS, and possibly wouldn’t play at all until 2013. Actually might not be a bad idea to throw $5MM at him and see what happens, but he walks so many people…
On LaHair, from KG’s latest article:
[quote name=ACT]On LaHair, from KG’s latest article:[/quote]I’m fine with LaHair playing 1B this season. Or barring that, maybe this hype will up his trade value.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I’m guessing Dice-K doesn’t come back to baseball until mid- to late-2012 after his TJS, and possibly wouldn’t play at all until 2013. Actually might not be a bad idea to throw $5MM at him and see what happens, but he walks so many people…[/quote]I forgot about his injury.
[quote name=josh]I’m fine with LaHair playing 1B this season. Or barring that, maybe this hype will up his trade value.[/quote]I’m fine with LaHair too, but in all the years I’ve been following winter leagues, that’s been said about a million times and not once has it been true. Most teams don’t look at winter league numbers and change their opinions too much.
[quote name=ACT]On LaHair, from KG’s latest article:[/quote]
Hard to believe he is becoming the Cubs best and smartest option, but, as the Dusted One would say, it is what it is.
Should the Cubs sign Castro to an extension?
new shit up: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/should-the-cubs-sign-starlin-castro-to-an-extension.html