More on the 2014 Cubs

In Commentary And Analysis by dmick8942 Comments

In the comments today, we were talking about the 2014 Cubs thanks to a post by Myles. I mentioned that I would not be surprised to see Arismendy Alcantara make the team out of spring training. I still think it’s more likely he starts in AAA Iowa, but it won’t surprise me. I didn’t see the Cubs spending much, or anything at 2nd base, or the rest of the infield for that matter. In response, Uncle Dave had a really good comment worth re-posting in an article of its own. Here it is.

I’d agree that they’re more likely to go for a high-cost impact bat in the outfield rather than the infield, simply because they don’t have a whole lot coming up through the system in the outfield over the next couple of years. Ellsbury or Choo would be great, but I wouldn’t count out a flier on Chet Granderson if they’re just trying to buy time until the kids start showing up.

Still, I don’t think that they break camp counting on anything from Olt or Alcantara next year, and you’re likely to see them sign a lesser name to give them options over the kids and/or Barney and Valbuena. Kelly Johnson comes to mind, as he’s a guy who could slot in at second, or move to be the long end of a platoon with Lake or some other RHB out in left if one of the young infielders does pan out, or maybe Ryan Raburn if you’re looking for a 2B who can also caddy for Schierholz (though he’d be a buy-high based on his performance this year in Cleveland).

I like the flexibility they have on the roster right now. Valbuena can give you a decent glove at second or third and at least get on base occasionally, which allows for the freedom to call up either Alcantara or Olt. Lake can find at-bats in either the outfield or the infield, if that’s your thing. DeJesus can play anywhere in the outfield, which makes it easier to find a fourth or fifth outfielder who can give you something, whether that’s a guy with a glove in center or a guy with a bat in left. It seems like making good moves with free agents should be easier without the burden of trying to hammer a square peg in a round hole.

I’m actually pretty optimistic about the lineup for next season. Add an impact bat, one breakout from Castro or Rizzo, and erase the black hole at second and you’re squarely on the right side of average.

The pitching seems like it’s in decent shape too. You’ve already got three established starters, some interesting pieces at the back end of the rotation to sort through for the rest of this year, and a few pleasant surprises in the bullpen. I know that spending real money on relief pitchers is like buying a new car, in that you lose half of its value the minute you drive it off the lot, but if you put a plus guy at the top of the bullpen, the rest of the guys get bumped down a slot and start to look pretty good. (I’d be pretty comfortable with Strop and Russell in the 7th-8th inning slots, for example, and your Blake Parkers and Brian Schlitters look OK at the back end of the pen). If you add another starter and an impact relief arm, I’d even go so far as to call the pitching staff good.

It seems like you could add an impact outfielder, an upgrade in the infield, a mid-rotation starter and overpay for an impact reliever like Grant Balfour for $40-50MM or so all-in, and you could get most of those guys on deals of three years or less, and given what the payroll looks like right now that seems possible. It gives you a bridge to the impact talent that is coming up in 2015 and beyond without robbing you of the flexibility to fill in where that talent fails in the future.

I like it. Let’s do it.

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  1. shawndgoldman

    @ dmick89:
    Fair enough (on Utley). I just think a short-term sign at 2B makes sense for the Cubs. Obviously, Utley would be the “best case” for that… but maybe that’s unrealistic (especially if the Phillies sign him to an extension) and someone like Kelly Johnson would be more likely.

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  2. GW

    Seems like a good plan, but I doubt they do any of it. I think if they thought Kelly Johnson could play 2nd, he would already be on the roster. Lord knows he was cheap enough last year. The bulk of his playing time has been in the OF this year for the Rays. Raburn, even moreso.

    I wouldn’t mind Balfour, but I would be shocked if he gets anywhere near that kind of contract. That’s Papelbon/Amaro territory. Maybe he gets in the range of Soriano to the Nats (~2/$30), but Soriano has had a better career. (Of course all bets are off if the A’s win the world series; the Tigers would probably back a truck full of money up to his driveway). I will be surprised if the Cubs sign anyone with the “proven closer” tag, to be honest.

    I really have no idea what they will do. The smart money is probably on Ellsbury, but I’m not sure if they would pull the trigger if their pick is unprotected.

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  3. Author
    dmick89

    Pretty sure Dave meant $40-50 million overall.

    It seems like you could add an impact outfielder, an upgrade in the infield, a mid-rotation starter and overpay for an impact reliever like Grant Balfour for $40-50MM or so all-in, and you could get most of those guys on deals of three years or less,

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  4. J

    I actually didn’t hate that Breitbart stat. I thought they did a poor job of explaining that a team that scores 4.8 runs per game has different needs from their starters than a team that scores 4.0, so it’s about value to that team, and not abstract value. It was about value, not pure performance.

    It’s definitely a measure to talk about what happened, and not what will happen. It’s like how a stat like RBI tells you what happened, not what will happen or what true talent is. I think it’s perfectly okay to award players based on that rather than hypothetical performance. It’s a stat that cares a great deal about context, whereas WAR tries to care as little as possible about context. The goals are different. If I am trying to vote for the Cy Young, I might look at the Breitbart number, but if I was deciding who to sign in the offseason, I wouldn’t.

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  5. uncle dave

    @ dmick89:
    Jesus, if they hand a reliever $50MM, I’m just going to give up. I was thinking $5MM a year for a low-end infielder, $10MM a year each for a starter and reliever (or relievers), and $15MM a year (at the front end of a longer deal) for a big bat in the outfield.

    It seems like one way an otherwise average team can contend is by winning one-run games via a strong bullpen. Pittsburgh and Oakland are doing a ton of that this year, and Oakland and Baltimore did it last year. I also think that there’s a bit of work to be done to properly value relievers. Everyone in your pen is going to get about 70 innings, but due to leverage not all of those innings will carry the same value. For batters and starting pitchers, though, it seems like the ABs and innings are all more or less similar in value. Grabbing a high-end closer not only gives you important innings, but also allows you to put average pitchers in a role where they can provide at least modest value. I’d really been in the camp that thought relievers are fungible and not worth spending on and I guess I still feel that way about guys at the back end of the pen, but I’m changing my mind about ones who can contribute in high-leverage situations.

    I was just spitballing on the who in terms of infielders, but I bet they go outside for at least one alternative to Barney or Valbuena. Alcantara may show up at some point next year, but I’d be surprised if it were right off the bat. He’s not yet reached AAA and I’m sure they’ll game his service time. I refuse to believe that they’re willing to settle for what they have on hand, especially since they’ve hung on to everyone who wasn’t already out the door here at the deadline.

    It’ll be interesting to watch this offseason. I think they’ll be a bit more aggressive, especially if short-term alternatives are available. How about a guy like Bartolo Colon, who probably won’t get more than two years at this point in his career? Seems like you could use some of your immediately available payroll flexibility to grab some bigger fish this time around.

    Or maybe that’s just the Hope Monster talking, I dunno.

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  6. J

    I’m glad they didn’t give Navarro to STL for next to nothing, but I’m pretty surprised no one else was moved, and I’m actually upset by it. The goal from here on is to unload any pieces who are not part of a future winning team. Being worse now results in a better team later. How could they have not moved Russell, Gregg, Navarro, Dejesus, and Scheirholz? Might as well make this team shitty and maybe the magic beans you get in return turn into usable parts. None of those players are on the roster next time this team contends.

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  7. shawndgoldman

    @ J:
    I think that means one of two things is true;

    1) the front office thinks contending in 2014 is possible, and that those guys could provide good value in pursuit of that effort; or
    2) the front office thinks the market price will go up on the untraded assets. For Gregg this could mean an expectation (or gamble) that prices for bullpen help will rise in august. For the others it might mean they think prices will be higher in the winter or at next year’s trade deadline.

    I think this is one of the reasons for optimism. The team is performing well, it has shed all its bad contracts from the “one last night on the town” end to the Tribune era, and it has quickly built is minor league system into something that will soon lead to MLB talent (through promotion or and/or trade). If they’re not at the turning point, they’re close. And at least one expalantion of the lack of deadline activity is an assessment by the front office that the turning point will come some time in the next year.

    Or… Maybe the market for rentals just tanked. (in that case, job extremely well done moving the other assets early).

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  8. Bill Clay

    shawndgoldman wrote:

    In related news, does this mean it’s now a certainty the Cubs will blow past the spending limits on the international free agent market?
    (have fun with that one Ryno)

    Just did.

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  9. Bill Clay

    uncle dave wrote:

    @ dmick89:
    Kelly Johnson comes to mind, as he’s a guy who could slot in…the long end.

    I like the flexibility…Valbuena can give you…without the burden of trying to hammer a…hole.

    You’ve…got…some interesting…back end.

    I know…guys…start to look pretty good…and your Blake Parkers and Brian Schlitters look OK.

    Let’s do it.

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  10. Bill Clay

    Akabari wrote:

    @ Rizzo the Rat:
    Do you remember when you were a kid…and it kind of confused you?

    I just had that feeling…as an adult, “Oh, wait. This is fucking”

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  11. Author
    dmick89

    @ bubblesdachimp:
    I don’t know, but I’d guess that there isn’t much difference between the two. I’d also just go with the evaluators on this and not some Cubs fan. No offense, bubs, but you haven’t shown yourself to be the most objective person when it comes to Cubs prospects. That’s why we like you so much so please, get this objective you out of here. (dying laughing)

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  12. shawndgoldman

    How about Drew Storen as a reclamation project? People around these parts tiring of him…
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/washington-nationals-arent-to-blame-for-drew-storens-struggles/2013/07/31/773e704c-fa04-11e2-a369-d1954abcb7e3_story.html

    … but his peripherals aren’t all that bad. Mostly, he needs to lower his HR rate:
    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6983&position=P

    I’d be happy giving him a run at the closer’s spot, letting everyone else slide down one inning.

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  13. GW

    @ uncle dave:

    If you remember, they made a run at Jason Grilli this past offseason, and ended up signing Fujikawa, so I think they do value those types. I just don’t see them going for one of the proven closers.

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  14. JonKneeV

    I just looked at 2014 committed salaries for the Cubs and there’s not much there. Also crazy seeing 2010 they were at $140m payroll. I think we could add Cano/Ellsbury/Choo + McCann + 1 RP and be at $110m. Then trade for a SP and RP in the last year of their contracts? I’m starting to think 2014 will be a big leap forward, especially if we can get a protected 1st rounder.

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  15. shawndgoldman

    @ JonKneeV:

    I’m not sure if I want them to spend up to their payroll limits this offseason, unless a significant portion of that spending is in front-loaded or short-term deals. The team is going to need some financial flexibility going forward, and shouldn’t have a bunch of bad contracts all “going bad” at the same time.

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