Let me start this off by saying all I can tell you is what I’ve heard from the same sites that you have access to. I haven’t seen any of these prospects in person (though I have watched some of the available video on these guys). This is where I tell you to support the fine websites Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. They are incredible resources for you, and much of the content is free. A BP account is one of the better ways to spend $35 that I can think of.
That being said, I do have opinions on the top 10 or so guys at this class. I’m going to give my methodology up front, and then make a list of who I hope the Cubs target.
First, it’s important to note where we are in the draft. The Cubs will select at 4, so they really only have to scout 5 or 6 guys for this pick. The reason for that is because they get their choice of everyone except 3 players, but they don’t know who will be available. If they can get their top 4 guys, plus a few choices of underslot chances, they can cover most contingencies. I’m going to go with 10 guys just because, but the Cubs likely don’t have that much work ahead of them.
I hate high-school pitchers for two reasons. First, the best way to tell if a pitcher won’t get injured is if he hasn’t been injured before. With 3-year college players and up, we have 5-7 years of data on them – a whole lot! While you can never be absolutely certain, you can be reasonably more certain that your pitcher isn’t going to need his TJS for a while. Pair that with the reality that college juniors only take 1-3 years until they are ready for the show (a high-schooler might go Rk – A- and A – A+ – AA -AAA – MLB), and you can see that you only have a college draftee for maybe 8 years on average (and thus 8 chances for a career-altering injury), and you might have the average HS draftee for 10. That matters, so if I think the talent level for 2 pitchers are similar, I’m definitely leaning towards the college arm.
One last wrinkle; college juniors have the most leverage at the negotiating table, which is very important. College seniors have the least (where will they go? Independent ball?), and high schoolers right in the middle (they have the option to go to college, but then a lot can (and does) happen in the three years until the regain draft eligibility). If I had to choose between two players and everything else is equal, I’m going to take a strong look at signability leverage.
I vastly prefer college pitching to HS pitching, but the reverse is generally true for hitting. Injuries aren’t much (if at all) of a concern in this case. The fact that high schoolers need more seasoning is a curse, but also a blessing; you get more organizational time (which is more beneficial than college time in many cases), and you also learn what it is to be a professional. I don’t have a strong preference, mind you, but I’d go for the high-schooler over the collegiate athlete, all things being equal. The only caveat is that HSers aren’t done growing, and as such might grow out of whatever position you might envision.
Now that the basics are out of the way, let’s look at the prospects.
Brady Aiken
There’s no need to scout him. He isn’t getting past the White Sox at 3. It’s a shame, because he’s the definition of a #2 pitcher; three plus offerings, 95+ fastball, and lefthanded. The curve, slider, and change-up are all promising, the curve actually more than promising. He’s a late riser, and a high schooler, but the frame is apparently top-notch and his motion is repeatable. As I said earlier, HSers have less leverage than you might think, so I’d expect him to be drafted and to sign (probably #1 overall, but definitely no later than #3).
Carlos Rodon
The dream scenario is that Rodon falls to the Cubs at #4. He’s still my #1 guy, despite the two red flags. The first flag is that lack of variety issues might lead to him being a closer when it’s all said and done. The second is that he sported reduced velocity early this year. I don’t care about either; his velocity is up to 96 now, and Rodon’s personality is such that he will be a starter until the manager literally carries him off the mound in the 1st inning of a game. I’ll trade Rodon’s durability issues (and mind you, he has no injury history at all besides the reduced velocity early this season) for what is a no-shit 80 slider. Rodon only has 3 pitches; an average fastball, an average change-up, and a plus-plus-plus slider. There have been knocks on his command as well, though his BB/9 is actually down by .2 this year. He hasn’t struck out the same amount but it’s still at 10.7 (from an absurd 12.6). I don’t think of Rodon as a future ace, as he doesn’t have the command or the arsenal to merit it. I do see Rodon as an easy #2 or #3 starter, probably as soon as late 2015. His strong trunk and legs give you every assurance you can reasonably have that he’ll log 200 innings a year for 12 years. That’s very important.
Tyler Kolek
While Kolek does have a pretty fastball (and it goes as fast as 102 – jeez), he’s a) a HS b) righty. Kolek, to me, seems really unlikely to ever make it to the majors as a starter. Pair that with his lack of a third pitch (he has a solid-average slider, but a below average curve and change), and it’s not hard to imagine that Kolek blows his arm out in 2016, and becomes a closer in 2017. The upside is higher here than probably any other pitcher, but you almost have to hit at #4, and there’s a huge chance that Kolek won’t.
Kyle Freeland
I’m a fan of Freeland’s – a big fan, actually – and he’s the player I ultimately think the Cubs are the most likely to select. He’s a lefty from Evansville (not a huge baseball power, but better than you’d think), and he has a good chance to unseat Andy Benes (or Sal Fasano – take your pick) as the best Ace of all time. Freeland throws 4 pitches, 3 of them well (the changeup isn’t good, but the changeup is almost always the hardest pitch to throw and the one that comes last) with great command and good plane on the fastball. Freeland will likely never have even a 70 pitch, but a trio of 60s with a fringe-average or better changeup is still nothing at all to sneeze at. My one concern is that his throwing motion looks whippy – it’s hard to explain – and I wonder if the shoulder injury is a when and not an if. I haven’t heard of anyone else having the same concern, so I’ll defer to their silence on that one. Freeland is a solid choice, a pitcher that is ultimately a #3 but with a very high floor.
Alex Jackson
Jackson profiles as the clear #1 position player in this draft, though the position he’ll play in professional baseball is up for a huge debate. He has a cannon for an arm, and catches in high school. Scouts say he needs a lot of defensive work there, and I openly wonder if we’ll ever see an offensive catcher a la Piazza or Molina ever, ever again (the toll it takes on the body is too great). That leaves RF as the likely destination for Alex, though some scouts say he could play 3B if he got enough reps there. He’s got plus-plus power and great bat speed, though there is some swing-and-miss in his game. Who does that sound like to you? Well, Kris Bryant, of course! However, I don’t think Jackson is the prospect that Bryant is. It’s just too hard to rely on HSers that don’t have a preternatural hit tool. Jackson can make loud contact, and his bat speed is a definitely plus, but I’d be really hesitant to take him. Luckily, the Cubs won’t get the chance. Jackson will almost definitely be gone at #2.
Nick Gordon
Gordon would be my first choice among position players (though if he was a pitcher, he’d still be a 1st-round pick). Gordon has a remarkable hit tool for a high-schooler, and the power could develop into average or better (it’ll be doubles power, not HR power). He’s a slick fielder who will stick at SS for the long haul, though his game speed is considerably slower than his track speed (where he’s a track star). He also has an easy plus arm, so if he does go to 3B in the future, he can be above-average there. Lastly, he has great instincts and scouts rave about his makeup. That’s a huge bonus for a high-schooler, and something that is easily discounted when it shouldn’t be.
Aaron Nola
I’m not a fan. He’s 6’1″ 196 pounds, which is fine but not hulking. That’s not the type of pitcher Nola is, though; he’s the Mike Leake, #3-#4 guarantee that might not even pitch in the minors if he’s drafted by the Reds-type. Nola’s fastball is very good, and he’s had a plus changeup in the past, but scouts say that he’s lost the feel for that pitch. If he gets his slider and his changeup working, he’ll still only have those 3 pitches. I just don’t see a lot of upside, even if the pick itself is probably a safe one.
Michael Conforto
There’s been considerable buzz that Conforto is going to sign under-slot to the Cubs at #4, and I can see the appeal. Conforto is the best college bat in the draft, with a .410 average and a .518 OBP. His bat can play, but his glove can’t; he’s a LF him a fringey arm at best. That means that the bat has to prove it at every level, which Conforto has proven possible thus far in his college career. Slightly concerning is the fact that his HR power last year turned into doubles power this year, but scouts believe he’s a 20-25 HR talent in the future. Consider me underwhelmed, though if they draft him to a well-underslot deal I’ll have to trust that the brain trust knows what they want to do with that savings.
Max Pentecost
Bar none, best name in the draft. He’s another option for an underslot deal. He’s a really weird catcher, with plus speed (!) with a frame that doesn’t really allow you to think he can catch forever. He’s got good bat speed and a solid approach, but he’ll never hit for great power (40 present, 50 future) and he doesn’t have the type of bat/speed combo to imagine he’ll be a super-high BABIP guy. I’m not sold on it, though there’s something to be said about the fact he was drafted in the 7th out of high school, turned it down, and has impressed ever since. There’s something there that someone likes.
Sean Newcomb
Newcomb has the best chance of these 10 to be Hayden Simpson. For one, he’s already had mono (which means he’ll always have it). He’s also “projectable,” which means that the tools aren’t all there yet (this despite being a college junior). He also has less wear on his arm than the average collegiate arm, but that’s not really a bonus (for all intents and purposes, consider Newcomb an older HS pitcher). He’s got a slurveball, and he throws it from a hulking 6’5″, 240 lb frame. The fastball is 91-93 now (with good command), and the thought it that he can pump it up higher as he refines his pitching mechanics. I want to stay as far away from Newcomb as I can, though he’s shooting up draft boards.
My order:
Carlos Rodon
Brady Aiken
Kyle Freeland
Nick Gordon
Alex Jackson
Tyler Kolek
Michael Conforto
Aaron Nola
Max Pentecost
Sean Newcomb