My fellow eFriends, I have returned from my sabbatical and will be writing up a few prospect recaps for some of the more interesting Cubs minor leaguers. So enjoy that.
Logan Watkins was drafted in the 21st round of the 2008 draft. He was a HS stud from Goddard KS which is a town as exactly small as it sounds. He was sent off to AZ for his age 18 season and in 107 AB's showed he was advanced for rookie ball. Watkins hit .325/.462/.363 (.414 wOBA, 140 wRC+) while playing 2B and some LF.
The following season he was promoted to the next level, a trend he has followed every single season thus far. In Boise Watkins put up a wRC+ of 118 which is pretty great for a 19 year old. It was pretty much the with a slash line similar to his AZ campaign, high BA, good eye at the plate but little to no slugging. However it was a good enough year that following the season Watkins made it to # 12 on John Sickels prospect list. He primarily stuck at 2B during his time in Boise but the following season in Peoria would see 22 games in CF and 19 at SS.
Peoria was the only stop where Watkins has struggled so far as his BA plummeted to .265. His wRC+ was 97 and he still was showing no power at all so I remember thinking at best he was going to be a utility at some point. However, to his credit he still had a OBP around 90 points higher than his BA. His good approach was still keeping him somewhat productive at the plate and any Cub prospect who can tell balls and strikes is a rarity in itself.
Watkins was promoted to Daytona the following year and while he was no longer even mentioned on Sickels prospect rankings he got himself back on track. His .281/.352/.404 line probably did set the world on fire but he finally was showing the ability to hit for extra bases. He hit 5 HR's and raised his wRC + to 111 in a pitcher friendly league. He also started to be more effective on the base paths stealing at a 21/26 rate.
This year Watkins continued his one level at a time progression spending the season at AA Tennessee. It was his best season so far as he posted a wRC+ of 130 while spending time at CF, SS in addition to 95 games at 2B. Watkins hit 9 home runs and 11 triples on his way to posting a .422 slugging %. He stole 28 bases in 35 attempts and continued his patient approach posting an OBP of .383. He was rewarded for his efforts by being named the Cubs minor league player of the year in addition to picking up mentions from ESPN and the hometown Wichita Eagle as a prospect on the rise.
So now that we recapped what he's done the question is where is he going to end up.
Personally, I think Watkins is the 2B of the future. I enjoy Darwin Barney as much as the next guy but the fact of the matter is he can't hit worth a shit. As soon as he starts making millions in the arb process I think TheoJed finds a new team for the gold glover and promotes Watkins. Since Watkins has continued to play multiple positions at every level perhaps a year as a utility guy could be in the works to acclimate him to the bigs. For me the ETA is late 2013 with him being up for good starting in 2014. I like the fact that he does a little of everything, is a left handed bat and by all accounts is a leader in the clubhouse.
If he pans out he would give us a cost controlled 2B through the through the end of the decade and would be making league minimum through 2016/2017. He could definitely be a part of the next contending core group. Plus he's from KS so that's worth like +20 on the intangible scale.
However, he does not come from an organization like the Toronto Blue Jays so he's got one strike against him already.
Sources- Wichita Eagle, milb.com, Fangraphs, ESPN, Baseball Ref,
I might be the biggest Barney fan on this blog, but I think you’re right. It’s probably what I’d do assuming Watkins remains a decent possibility.
I just don’t know you end up getting equal value in return for Barney. That’s a trade that will probably get the Cubs next to nothing and it will likely be a net loss (giving away more than they get).
Barney is the kind of guy that some old school GM will value. Team leader, good glove, hell he’s so good at 2B that if i were a GM I would try him back at SS where you usually dont have to hit as much
@ dylanj:
There are fewer and fewer old school GMs though. If I was a GM that needed a shortstop, I’d definitely try to trade for Barney. In the AL you can stash him in the 9 spot in the lineup too.
@ mb21:
If he is what he is, is it wasteful to just have Barney as the all-purpose backup middle infielder while you get the better bats in the lineup in Castro and Watkins?
@ Rice Cube:
Castro of course. He’s just a better players. Watkins? We’ll have to see. If he continues to hit as he has, I think he’s probably more valuable at which point the deciding factor has to be money paid to Barney vs. what they can get in return. If they can’t get much in return, they can limit his salary by using him as a utility player.
There are several teams who value middle infield defensive prowess, such as the Giants and Mariners. Teams that play in big parks where there aren’t a lot of homeruns seem to value defense more.
When you have a point, you have a point.
(dying laughing)
@ mb21:
I was thinking that the low expense and the club control would increase his trade value some but I agree Barney won’t bring a lot back in trade. So maybe they can bring somebody up (Watkins? Baez?) around when Barney hits arbitration they can keep the costs down by making him a bench player if his bat indeed sucks worse. Then they could re-sign Barney later on for a Brendan Ryan-type deal. I think the glove is important to have, but probably more so in late innings in close games.
I hope that WGN hires Deshaies. I didn’t watch enough Astros broadcasts to form an opinion on him, but am not a fan of the rest of the candidates.
Berselius wrote:
This is kind of where I am right now. Plus Houston fans seem upset he might leave, so that’s at least hopeful. But Cubs fans were upset Brenly left, so you never know.
Aisle424 wrote:
It could go either way. 50/50.
The Red Sox might hire Craig Counsell as their hitting coach (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
@ Berselius:
You mock what you do not understand.
You people who dismiss Barney’s hitting abilities aren’t factoring in the possibility that he’ll bulk up over the off-season and show up to Spring Training in the best shape of his life.
@ josh:
Good call. This should be called Theriot’s Law.
Someone was saying the other day that with the Cubs targeting all these groundball pitchers, you might want to think twice before trading away your gold gloved cost-controlled second baseman. It’s a decent point, but with that gold glove and a 4.6 fWAR, his value’s never been higher and I’m hoping a team puts out a real nice offer. Especially with us having some prospects that aren’t too far away like Watkins and Torreyes.
The Steelers are reminding me of Bumblebee Guy from the Simpsons.
What’s the scouting report on Watkins’s fielding. Since he can play short, I assume he is an above average 2B but probably not on the same level as Barney. I’ve really liked all the stats ive seen from Watkins he seems like a potentially prototypical leadoff man with his ability to get on base and plus speed. Not to forget his ISO has so far risen every year in the minors (despite moving to higher levels), so I see reason to believe he can get even better on offense with seasoning.
Apparently 5/75 is being talked around as the likely price of BJ Upton. Sounds like a good deal to me.
Andrew wrote:
Is that seasoning similar to the type of seasoning applied to cast iron cookware? If not, I’m not sure I’m interested.
@ Andrew:
I haven’t read any recent scouting reports on him, but from what I recall, it was average to below average at SS and above average at 2nd base.
Cubs just re-signed the MVP.
Very negative mood today. You all need bunnies.
@ Rice Cube: Why would you post something so horrible?
@ Rice Cube:
@ mikeakaleroy:
I always loved that Anya was frightened to death of bunnies.
@ Aisle424:
What’s with all the carrots? What do they need such good eyesight for anyway?
@ Rice Cube:
@ mikeakaleroy:
Did someone say bunnies?
5/75 for Upton?
Where do I sign
On Jim Deshaies’ possibly leaving Houston:
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2012/11/19/3666514/mondays-three-astros-things
http://www.bleachernation.com/2012/11/19/so-about-the-lack-of-a-jumbotron-at-wrigley-field/
@ Mish:
some of the comments are advocating replacing the current scoreboard with a jumbotron. this would be impossible, correct? i was under the impression that the scoreboard has historical landmark status or something and can’t be fucked with.
i personally would really hate a jumbotron, but i guess if it was bringing in a bunch of cash, i could live with it. i wonder how much those things actually bring in?
that seattle jumbotron looks fucking insane.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I honestly don’t know much about what the landmark status does and what not.
I generally don’t hold anything traditional as sacred, so I’m all for a jumbotron. As discussed here before (and someone in the comments also mentions), you can create a digital facsimile of the hand-changed scoreboard that can show in between replays/ads/what have you.
I generally believe in the Cubs doing anything that will maximize revenue streams. As is, I get very little utility from the scoreboard that I don’t get from other digital displays on the grandstands.
I think the landmark status just means that the bribe for doing it is higher than most other park modifications.
Bruce Levine made vague statements over the weekend that the Cubs are working on a big trade involving young players. No word on the color of the tshirt that his source was wearing.
I don’t get why the Cubs couldn’t replace the scoreboard. The Ricketts own the entire stadium. They should be able to do whatever the hell they want with it as long as it meets building codes.
Berselius wrote:
This is probably more accurate than just plain snark.
jtsunami wrote:
That’s cute. Welcome to Chicago!
@ jtsunami:
Agreed. If the city wants to say he can’t destroy the scoreboard, fine, but he should be able to move it wherever the hell he wants and that includes right in front of city hall. Not to mention, the city should be on the hook for any and all costs to repair the damn thing and should subsidize the Cubs for the lost revenue. That’s about $30 million per year in lost revenue and let’s go with $1 million per year to fix the old scoreboard. So there you go, the Cubs can keep the damn thing right where it is as long as the bankrupt city pays the Cubs $31 million per year.
If they don’t like it, drop the fucking thing off in front of city hall and let them fucking deal with it.
@ mb21:
I was thinking if it’s so iconic they could always donate the scoreboard to the Smithsonian.
@ Rice Cube:
They could put it in the Century of Losing section.
@ mb21:
you’re saying that you think a new jumbotron would bring in $30m per year in revenue? i had no idea it would be that much. if that’s the case, then my attitude regarding a jumbotron is definitely changed.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I’ve heard this before and I’m a little skeptical.
That’s $370K per game or $41K per inning. Or about $7K per out.
Seems high.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
When Citi Field opened it was reported they would receive $30 million annually for the board and an additional $10-20 million from Citi Field for the naming rights (something else I’m very much in favor of the Cubs doing).
@ Suburban kid:
How much is a company like Budweiser paying to run advertisements during Cubs games? During the World Series ads cost $450,000 for 30 seconds back in 2010. Obviously it’s much less than that for the average Cubs game, but it’s not cheap. The jumbotron would be seen by all the fans, all of those on tv and if it’s in the right place it might even be seen by people driving by the stadium. It will be seen in all photographs of the outfield wall too.
It will generate a tremendous amount of revenue. $30 million? Maybe not, but it won’t be much less.
@ mb21:
that could be the right neighborhood, but these type of figures have to be considered for the park in total. that is, the existing adspace at wrigley will be devalued if/when a board is installed.
@ mb21:
Are you comparing national TV commercials to jumbotron ads? Don’t the audiences differ by a factor of about 1,000?
Not to mention, you can’t charge someone for a jumbotron ad based on the premise that it will be seen by the TV audience. I don’t recall TV broadcasts focusing on the jumbotron for the entire game. The vast majority of ads on the jumbotron won’t be seen by the TV viewers.
@ GW:
That’s a good point, but even factoring that in it’s still going to increase revenue in a significant way.
Maybe the $30 million is right. Maybe they sell something like 100 ads per game for $3,700 each. That actually doesn’t sound so crazy.
It just seems strange that a jumbotron could generate revenues that would fund almost an entire small market roster.
Suburban kid wrote:
No, I said it was obviously much less for the average Cubs game.
I’m just basing my estimate on what has been reported before.
@ Suburban kid:
They’ll sell a bunch of smaller ads and they’d probably sell some permanent ad space too.
The other and easier thing for the Cubs to accomplish is selling naming rights. I vote for Cookies BarBQ at Wrigley Field.
So…ex-Cub draft pick Colin Kaepernick is doing pretty well for himself.
@ mb21:
Pizza Hut Milf Park at Wrigley Field
this is a joke, right? seriously. that has to be a joke. i refuse to believe that someone designed that shirt and wasn’t joking around.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Inspired by new-Big-Ten-Member University of Maryland’s Under Armour jerseys.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
@ Aisle424:
holy shit, that’s exactly what i’ve been trying to think of since i saw that crappy skymall shirt. thank you.
CCD got assaulted on Twitter tonight by a bunch of Rant Sports guys for forwarding our posts. I’m not sure why he took the hit, but he fought the good fight.
@ Aisle424:
Next time, block quote that shit. I spent what felt like half an hour looking for that because I couldn’t remember CCD’s other name. And I still can’t figure out how to read twitter threads. I always end up reading the same tweets over and over.
@ Aisle424:
Were they quoting experts from AM sports radio talk? On the few links I’ve clicked there, I feel like I’m reading transcripts.
WaLi wrote:
Let me know if you find out.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I think the joke is that they can get some suckers to pay $70-160 for the extra pieces of shirts they’ve stitched together.
Reduce, Reuse, Recycle. (dying laughing)
I’ve seen some bad Bears games in my life, but holy shit was that ugly.
Who’s Jason Campbell?
@ SVB:
Some schmuck who is being paid $3.5 M to get his ass kicked
@ Aisle424:
Interesting that the Ranters did not engage the source directly.
@ Rice Cube:
Perhaps they realized that your blog had the ability to form Devastator and didn’t wish to be annihilated.
@ WaLi:
Can someone find that clip of Carimi getting absolutely plowed over last night (and gif it maybe)? Two weeks in a row that happened. He must have got shoved back at least 5 yards off the line of scrimmage before landing on his ass.
Here is the stream between ccd (@wpbc) and the guy who wrote the snakeoil post. Read from the bottom up.
That Brett Rosin guy that keeps getting tagged is apparently the brains behind Rant Sports and he takes issue with CCD challenging “Chicago Bear Jew’s” “analysis” and then says that when CBJ calls him names, he’s “entitled to his opinion.”
^^ What’s this all about?
Ah one post too late.
@ Aisle424:
He’s an angry elf.
@ Mish:
We’re getting to see what would happen if Alvin was more antagonistic.
Sorry for not reading every post, but how did ccd get pulled into this?
I’m still not getting what’s going on in that feed. Who is CCD?
Damn, wpbc got attached hard last night. Here’s my tweet:
@BrettRosinRMN @ChicagoBearJew Hey @wpbc did not write it. I was still laughing at “Teams like the Toronto Blue Jays” and couldn’t respond
CCD goes by wpbc these days. Back at the original 1060 West blog he went by CCD and after it shut down he started WaxPaperBeerCup and went by wpbc.
@ Mish:
@ josh:
CCD is also known in these parts as “wpbc” or Waxpaper Beercup. He used to blog about the Cubs quite a bit and now has his tumblr blog Holy Coleslaw, so named because he was banned from BCB for offering to bring coleslaw to a fictional BCB picnic.
He somehow got attacked for re-tweeting our posts about Rant Sports. He may have added some commentary, but he somehow drew the response. He got called, “bro.” That’s really all you need to know about the level of discourse he was up against.
@ Aisle424:
Gotcha. One of those “Say that to my face!” conversations.
@ Aisle424:
After going to twitter to try to figure this out before the block post was up. I learned more about Aisley. (dying laughing)
1. Ca. 40, 000 tweets? Dude. You should have buried the rant sports guyz with responses. Can’t you single-thumbedly cause a DNS attack?
2. Aisley’s carpel tunnel in his thumbs is acting up. See 1
3. Aisley must really love misery because he kept watching Jason Campbell while a real contest was occurring on the tubez
4. Now I understand why you like the tactile keyboard of a slider phone. (dying laughing)
In all seriousness tho, the comment about why they didnt just engage here is telling.
@ Aisle424:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
SVB wrote:
A slightly above average quarterback with good demeanor.
http://gbtshumor.com/2012/11/20/chicago-bears-embarrassed-32-7-in-spite-of-this-nice-picture-of-jason-campbell-smiling/
First place!
@ GBTS:
(dying laughing)
SVB wrote:
Yeah, but that is from more than just last night. That’s like a month’s worth of tweets.
http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/40363322/
@ Berselius:
Holy crap @ Trope #1 being the scrappy white guy meme
John Gibbons ———–> Blue Jays (again)
Kind of surprising to see, given how he went out a few years ago. He’s the guy that Ted Lilly got into it with a few years back.
Just a photo I recently enjoyed. Win.
@ Rice Cube:
Good for Mike Tanier. The meme needs to die in all sports, even hockey, though its application is more East West there than racial.
So now that the Big Ten is probably going to have 14 teams, is it time to change the name of the conference?
@ mb21:
Are we all aware that Chicago Bear Jew posted something in the previous (dead) thread? It’s the last comment:
I, for one, am happy there is a storm-a-brewin’ on the Cubs interwebs. What better to get me through the winter of my discontent?
@ 26.2cubfan:
Maybe we need to restore the old “A thoughtless and vile corner of Cubdom” slogan from the ACB days (dying laughing)
26.2cubfan wrote:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
You mean man.
Guthrie just got a 3 year deal from the Royals structred as 5m/11m/9m. You don’t see that very often.
I have an idea, let’s draw more attention to what they consider sports commentary by providing them with content for free!
26.2cubfan wrote:
I wonder how they’d feel about the extra traffic they’d get if I leave a comment on their site like “Cubs Rant Sports Anal Underage Sex”
@ Suburban kid:
26.2cubfan wrote:
@ Suburban kid:
HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOT
@ 26.2cubfan:
More like CANT Sports, amirite?
@ GW:
(dying laughing)
@ GBTS:
Someone should start @CANTSports on twitter.
Apparently ChicagoBearJew = Donald Trump
Can’t wait until he says that he’ll donate $5m to charity if we engage him.
Berselius wrote:
Get that in writing. Donate to JDRF or something. I support all good causes.
They called wpbc a jabroni (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
Just amazing.
I’d do some math for a ~42% tip!
New shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/will-jim-deshaies-be-the-replacement-for-bob-brenly.html