Lots of hitting going on as Iowa put up 13 on Memphis.
Brett Jackson went 4-5 and raised his batting average by almost 30 points. Adrian Cardenas went 3-5 and really by this point should be here over DeWitt. Vitters went 2-5 and Dave Sappelt went 3-6 with a HR.
Logan Watkins had a great game going 2-5 with a HR and SB. Kevin Rhoderick is working on his 2nd straight year of dominance in the bullpen. Hopefully we see him sooner than later in Chicago.
Austin Kirk continues to have the best season of any SP in our system going 8 IP and allowing 2 ER. Kirk is sporting a 1.54 ERA but not striking a ton of guys out and does not have great stuff. Its hard to see him as anything other than a fringy 5th or most likely a bullpen arm. The Cubs decided to move Szrzrz to the 3 spot after his recent hot streak but he went 0-5.
Peoria
No Game
Is there any chance that Cardenas could play 3B?
Kramerica Industries would like to inquire about a possible sponsorship of Children Are the Future.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/2/2992331/prospect-of-the-day-brett-jackson-of-chicago-cubs
@ Mish:
Ferris Bueller’s Day Off —> reality:
http://gma.yahoo.com/video/news-26797925/car-valet-s-joy-ride-caught-on-hidden-camera-29146638.html
completely off-topic and i’m sure no one cares, but what do you fine people make of Pujols small-sample collapse?
just a weird baseball thing. I’m sure Albert will be Albert by the end of the year. Or it would be the craziest collapse of all time. I’ll take a wait and see approach
dylanj wrote:
prudent. stay the course. thousand points of light.
it is interesting to see the deterioration though pitchf/x, though. he’s being exploited on the offspeed stuff. one has to wonder if that’s a consequence of getting to know pitchers, being patient and getting behind in the count (only 12 of his 96 AB went to 2-0, which is down from 18%; been 0-2 35 times, up from 22%) — or if this is the tipping point in a falloff from prime form that’s already a few years past, and they’ve started to exploit him cheating to catch up with the fastball.
@ Edwin:
Cardenas played 3B at the iCubs game I went to. I was disappointed to not see Vitters, but Cardenas went 2-3 with a walk, run, and 4 RBI.
Cardenas will be a nice utility man. His glove sucks just about everywhere but his bat will play
@ gaius marius:
My guess is that he’s suffering from aging-hitter-slow-start syndrome. Think D. Lee and A. Ram. It’s impressive that he went this long without having slow starts, but he’s probably going to start looking more human going forward. He’ll still have some awesome hitting streaks, though. He’ll probably end up with his best season yet.
Cardenas looks white enough that I don’t think fans would notice how awful his defense is at third.
http://www.chicagonow.com/chicago-tough/2012/05/joe-cowley-upset-at-twitter-deletion-stuck-verbally-attacking-women-in-person/
h/t Bullpen Brian
Ian Stewart’s last 200 AB’s might be the worst 200 AB’s in the modern era.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/05/02/justin-upton-rips-espns-sunday-night-baseball/
@ gaius marius:
I think it’s nothing to worry about either. FWIW he also slumped last April. The grim spectre hanging over Pujols is vague questions about his age, but even if he’s older it’s not like he aged 4 years in the past 6 months.
@ gaius marius:
I think he has a BABIP problem. If you go back to 2007 and 2008 he had 8 of the 12 months in which his BABIP was well above average. In 2009 it dropped to just 3 and only one of them stood out with regards to a typical .300 BABIP. In 2010 he had only 2 months with an above average BABIP. And the same thing last year. His BABIP has been in decline since the 2008 season and pretty much everything else has been in decline since the 2009 season. His BB Rate, ISO, OBP, SLG, his wOBA of course and even his baserunning is just plain bad at this point. Defensively he’s still been average or better for the most part. His BB/K has declined for several years. He’s clearly in decline, which isn’t surprising considering his age.
He still has a .381 rest of season ZiPS, but combined with his terrible start he’s in the .350s and not even reaching 5 fWAR.
It’s kind of funny. In about 5 years the Soriano signing won’t even be considered one of the 5 worst and it probably shouldn’t be now. Between the A-Rod, Lackey, Crawford, Pujols, Werth, Howard, and Fielder contracts Soriano’s won’t even be among the 10 worst. They say teams have gotten smarter about long-term contracts, but I think they’re dumber than ever. That’s especially true when you consider how many young players are locked up to team friendly contracts these days. The percentage of just plain stupid long-term contracts for free agents is at an all-time high. In 15 years some of the players I just named won’t even be in the top 5 worst contracts.
@ Berselius:
He slumped to a league average wOBA last year in April.
Stewart has hit .161/.244/.236 over his last 221 plate appearances (2011 and 2012 seasons). Someone should compile a list of pitchers who have hit better than that.
@ mb21:
With the new CBA teams will have even more money to spend in FA. Good times!
@ mb21:
I think this is one of the long-term side effects of the new CBA reaction that we will see. The Cubs may not have much to bargain with at the moment, but in a few years, a lot of teams are going to be saddled with players they locked up young who never reached expectations, or who were good five years ago. That’s why I think there will be some long-term averaging out after all these rushes to lock up the Aybars and Molinas and Vottos.
@ mb21:
Everyone knew Crawford would be a good deal though, mb, because he was such a good athlete he’d stay healthy.
@ mb21:
it’ll definitely be the worst contract ever signed, imo. it’s as though these teams don’t think they have to pay the last five years of these contracts. the WAR he gives the Angels will probably be the most expensive WAR in history. Saint Louis showed their typical acumen in letting him go.
the BABIP thing is particularly interesting this year with his LD% so high. but his ISO is completely gone as well. some chatter about how he’s barely driven a ball to the warning track this year. and no walks all of a sudden.
some of this stuff makes me think of Sammy’s spectacular decline. when ageing players hit that tipping point, it can be gruesome.
@ Berselius:
There is some truth to players like him aging better, but the fact is that players like that are a leg injury away from being worthless (see Soriano). I’ve got a post coming up next week on Chicago Side that did a comparison between Soriano and Crawford in terms of their expected value over the life of their contracts at this point and there is almost no way that Crawford is even as valuable as Soriano. That part of the post was cut out so I’ll probably carry it over here at some point, but the bottom line is this: if the Soriano contract is a terrible one, the Crawford contract is even worse. There’s just no way around it. That will easily be Theo’s worst signing just as Soriano was Hendry’s worst. To make things worse, Lackey is much less valuable than Zambrano was and relative to what they were paid the Cubs got more value out of Fukudome than the Sox did Dice-K. I used those 3 Cubs because they were the 3 albatrosses the fans and media mentioned so often. Being able to compare Fukudome to Dice-K was a result of the contracts and not them being from Japan. Though one could easily argue the Sox weren’t as good at estimating value from Dice-K as the Cubs were for Fukudome.
@ mb21:
Clearly my comment was in Sarcasm Font given my axe-grinding on this topic (dying laughing)
@ gaius marius:
I think the Fielder one will top the Pujols one, but that’s just my opinion. I think Pujols will rebound this year. I’m not sure I can put all that much into 100 plate appearances, but the trend is obvious. Pujols is much, much slower and his BABIP has declined significantly. That’s not going to reverse itself over the long haul. It will bottom out at some point and we may not be far from that, but he’s not hitting for as much power either. His baserunning, which I always thought was awesome, is basically gone. He’s not that unlike Aramis Ramirez on the bases and he was one of the worst baserunners the last few seasons. I imagine his defense will begin to slip too. It’s kind of surprising it hasn’t.
What’s remarkable to me is all the bad contracts signed in recent years. This tells me that sabermetricians are wrong about the long-term contract bonus that teams should be getting. They say 10% off for 3 years or more, but I’m think it’s probably more like 10% for 3 years, 12% for 4 and so on. There’s just no way that a 10 year deal should get the team the same bonus that a 3-year deal would. It also tells us something we already knew: projecting value 3, 4 or 5 years out is next to impossible. I could agree that so and so would project to be this good in 4 years if healthy and if this and if that, but outside of those qualifications I think it’s a waste of time.
I like what the Phillies did with Cliff Lee and I think we’ll see more of that. You’d be better off paying someone $150 million over 5 years than $250 million over 10 years.
@ Berselius:
Oh yeah, I knew that and was mostly responding to those who have said what you said sarcastically.
Tony Campana right now is fun to watch, but imagine if he tears his ACL. Done. Obviously Crawford has more skills than Campana, but leg injuries to players with speed is kind of like wrist injuries to players with power. Too bad for Crawford that he has both a wrist injury and a leg injury.
@ Berselius:
Wil Smith got suspended!? WHO WILL GET JIGGY WITH IT!?
@ mb21:
(dying laughing) has done an okay job being a primarily speed player. His year in Chicago was actually one of his top three seasons, according to fangraphs (by WAR). Not all speed players get injured.
@ josh:
No, but when they do it can be ugly.
mb21 wrote:
so what the fuck is the problem? why do teams keep doing this? i have to assume that they’ve figured out that even if they eat a large portion of the contract, the jump in initial ticket sales or tv rights or whatever will be enough to offset the shitty contract. but that doesn’t seem like it would be true.
i just don’t get it…flop after flop and still you see teams signing these massive contracts. every time i see a huge contract turn out horribly, i think, “ok, great, that is one more example of why teams shouldn’t be signing 8-year $180m contracts. surely GMs are learning their lesson. payrolls will soon stabilize and some kind of sanity will return to mlb salaries.” which is obviously a stupid and naive way of thinking.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Tax break?
gaius marius wrote:
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Fear of losing the contract, partly. The GM is under constant pressure to produce winning teams. If the Tigers don’t sign Fielder and he opts for a contract nearly as ridiculous elsewhere, the GM can congratulate himself on a job well done, but fan perception is that the team better damn well win the division that year, and if they don’t, they call for the GM’s head, and often get it.
I think agents like Boras are really good at exploiting GMs’ fears. I have no evidence of that, though.
@ mb21:
True. It’s probably a good enough reason not to sign a speed guy to crazy money. The injury angle is especially acute. Hamilton is injured 1/4 of every season, but still produces like crazy. Campana’s WAR would be -10 if he lost his speed.
@ josh:
The manager would probably be fired if he allowed a player to play enough to accumulate -10 WAR (dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
That would be a SS with 609 PA and a .090 wOBA with league average defense and baserunning. (dying laughing)
It’s tough to evaluate GMs on those monster long term deals. Ownership is always going to play a role in those signings, as we saw with McDonough and Soriano, and I suspect similar things are true for players like A-Rod (Steinbrenner giving the finger to BOS), the Red Sox laying out big dollars for Lackey, Crawford, and Gonzalez, or the Angels going balls out for Pujols and Wilson. I don’t feel as comfortable applying sabermetric analysis to these megadeals because such outside influcences affect them. Also because they always look awful (dying laughing). The main power of sabermetrics is still around the margins.
@ Rice Cube:
Bronson Arroyo threw 199 innings worth of ~5.70 FIP last season (dying laughing)
mb21 wrote:
Why are we talking about Alcides Escobar? I thought this was a Cubs blog
@ Berselius:
There has to be some level where the GMs, when push comes to shove, don’t trust the numbers, or feel that same hesitation. Where they, in other words, buy the agent’s bullshit.
@ Rice Cube:
Brian Giles had a -4.1 WAR in 2009 in only 61 games. Yikes. This was after a 3.9 WAR season in 2008 too.
Buddy Black is still managing the Padres.
@ WaLi:
Because he didn’t let him get to -10.
@ Rice Cube:
He did get manager of the year in 2010. Probably for not playing/releasing Giles (dying laughing)
Part of that negative would be defense, obviously, and the manager would argue that Campy is working real hard/best shape of his life/etc.
It’s been almost an hour and ESPN is still silent regarding Junior Seau.
Mark Prior —–> Red Sox (presumably minor leagues)
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
rich hill is in their bullpen, too. someone should tell them that kerry wood is available. i’m guessing angel guzman and donnie veal could be had at a reasonable price, as well.
@ GW:
Yeah, but what about Lance Dickson?
The Reds beat the Red Sox to the punch by signing Michael Wuertz
WenningtonsGorillaCock wrote:
He’ll have to find someone to cover his shift at the Burger King first. Those burgers ain’t going to flame-broil themselves.
@ GW:
I think they would’ve if Angel Guzman weren’t suspended.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/some-engineer-currently-designing-better-espn-tele,28051/
(dying laughing)
Pretty bad ass.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/05/02/andy-pettitte-should-not-get-the-blame-if-clemens-walks/
I don’t know how honest and consistent Andy Pettitte really is (maybe the lawyers can chime in) but it amuses and annoys me that the prosecutors in these PED cases seem to keep fucking things up.
@ Aisle424:
That’s not conclusive even with replay. There was a stretch of shoestring clinging to the base from Helton’s shoe.
I don’t really get why any NL team would sign Thome. Seems like a nice guy, but if you put him in the field at all, he’s going to be hurt. Ozzie used to say he’d have to give him 3 days off after he played first. The guy just isn’t in game shape.
@ Rice Cube:
When your case is based on human memory instead of verified data, you’re going to have stuff like that. People’s memory has been proven to change in the presence of new stimuli.
@ josh:
It’s bizarre. I guess there’s interleague play and playoffs, though. And Thome is a hit with local fans and really wanted to play there. And there’s the Howard injury.
That Dodger announcer was right, AJ Ellis is near the top in Pitches per plate appearance. He’s tied with Adam Dunn.
torn acl for matt gamel
@ Aisle424:
Human element!
@ GW:
That’s terrible.
@ GW:
You know what they need? A little Hair in their diet. LaHair.
Okay, that was stupid.
@ josh:
Get it out of your system before you publish it.
LaHair continues to mash
How’s F7′s velocity today?
@ Berselius:
He’s hitting 96 a lot.
He’s been much faster than Arroyo.
@ ACT:
Good to hear. Just went to gameday to check myself and was pleased to see that you can see all of a pitcher’s previous pitches again.
Silly Campana.
@ Mobile Rice:
Bronson’s plan against Campana: Start with a few breaking balls, follow that up with some breaking balls, and finish him off with a breaking ball.
@ Berselius:
@ ACT:
I hear you can get him out with pitches
That slider is moving more than I’d seen it before. It’s amazing to see F7 dominate.
@ Mobile Rice:
He could go on to win three Cy Young awards and I’ll still be shaking my head (dying laughing)
F7 just busts people inside with that sinker.
Hey, a I-Stu HR!
@ Berselius:
(dying laughing)
I’m bored.
@ GBTS:
I like what I’ve seen of Stewart’s defense so far (his bat, on the other hand…).
@ Berselius:
Fitzheraldo!! I loved that movie
So, uh, going 3-6-3 for the double play there would have saved a run, correct?
@ GBTS:
I don’t know if they had enough time for that.
@ ACT:
no, it’s fine.
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120502&content_id=30226480¬ebook_id=30233328&vkey=notebook_chc&c_id=chc
see?
It was a pretty quick play. Would have to watch the replay again, but I did think if he had tried for the out at second first they’d negate the run. Oh well.
Saved a double there. Too bad he couldn’t make the throw.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
shit, i should have read the whole article before posting. tony campana is apparently taking pointers from juan pierre. we’re doomed.
That double play was hawt.
Zonk’s catchphrase of the day is “That’s a highlight reel!”
(dying laughing)
Did the Reds bullpen just prevent their own guy from making a play?
@ Rice Cube:
Oh wait, he caught it.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
If Tony Campana is even 60% as good as (dying laughing) was at his age, I’d take it.
Soriano and DeWitt getting hits in the same inning?
Geovany Soto realizes it’s an even year.
F7 is mowing them down.
61 pitches through 6 IP.
*insert facepalm pic*
Nuts. Double.
@ Berselius:
age 26 juan pierre had a career-to-date CS rate of 27% and an 88 OPS+…am i missing something?
F7 at 84 pitches, but I’m guessing his night is over.
Samardzjia is fucking rolling. A new victory for small sample size?
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Also plus defensively, stole a zillion bases, was a 3-4 WAR player in his prime
@ Berselius:
not arguing the defense but wouldn’t you trade a few SBs for a much lower CS? my initial comment pretty much meant that if campana loses what is arguably his biggest asset (SB/CS ratio) then he’s pretty much worthless.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Yeah, I know what you mean. This is just unjustified opinion, but I think you can relax the SB/CS stuff a bit for elite base stealers. Pitchers don’t worry too much about the average guy running, but having a terror on the basepaths = extra BSR-type stats as well as shit like pickoff errors.
@ Berselius:
had one year with a WAR > 3 (which was sandwiched between negative WAR years)
5 GO, 7 FO
Haven’t counted line drives and pop outs.
F7 has to be at the end of his night. 90+ pitches now.
Even with the criticism of his arm (which my lying eyes recently said isn’t as bad as I thought) I like Campana on D too
1. Great start by Samardzija
2. Starlin’s over-aggressiveness on the bases continues to irritate me.
Humber is having another rough start.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I was looking at fWAR, he had a few 4 WAR years in COL, 3.3 in 2006 with the Cubs. Probably a difference between UZR and TZ
Halladay: 5.1 IP, 12 H, 8 ER
Oops, I meant he had his good years in FLA
Can’t wait for yet another stomach-churning save op from Marmol.
@ Berselius:
very true. there have been many times where i’ve seen pierre get to first and then make it to third through an unusual set of circumstances.
i have a friend who loves juan pierre. he is always making the case that pierre’s numbers may not b e any good but he creates scoring opportunities for his teammates, which i think is certainly true, but i argue that he costs as many runs as he creates. anyway, yeah, i see your point. if you’re getting 45+ SB, then the ratio rules are definitely different.
Crazy, rWAR had him at double digit negatives in fielding for three in FLA, then +18 in 2006 with the Cubs.
Go figure, defensive stats
Hoping it’s a White Castle night
@ Berselius:
Hopefully the kind doesn’t give you the runs (dying laughing)
Bryce Harper quasi-barehanded catch tonight
Soft hands.
@ Berselius:
fWAR = fielding WAR?
@ EnricoPallazzo:
fangraphs WAR
ACT wrote:
you jinxed him
Cubs don’t lose.
Would really have loved to see the Cubs demolish Bronson Arroyo
@ EnricoPallazzo:
It was smoother than most, but he worked from 0-2 to a full count on the first batter (and strike three should have been ball 4), and a running snag by Reed saved what easily could have been a Votto double.
There’s a very fine line between effectively wild Marmol and bad Marmol. Fortunately, he was on the right side of that line tonight.
Roy Halladay ERA: 3.40
Jeff Samardzija ERA: 3.41
Just saying.
Jeebus, the Cards hung 12 runs on A.J. Burnett in less than 3 innings. Someone needs to get them out of Rookie Mode.
Transformation!
@ ACT:
the glass half-full perspective would be that he was in the zone with both the FB and SL, and he struck 2 batters out looking, meaning they were fooled by the movement
/sss analysis
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
The first batter wasn’t fooled, though. The umpire was fooled.
7 RBI for Carlos Ruiz tonight
@ ACT:
Brandon Philips, on the other had, looked completely lost. That was a fun AB.
The Braves just tied it up against the Phillies at 12 each.
@ Berselius:
Can you? Maybe they stop it when the game is over, because I was just trying to do that with no luck.
My god, this Braves/Phils game is crazy. It keeps see-sawing back and forth.
Making Z bunt against Barry Zito should be a crime against humanity. Let the man swing away.
@ Rice Cube:
With 1 out, no less. That’s Ozzie for you.
WTF is Ozzie doing?
I bet his FIP isn’t all that good but Carlos Zambrano has a sub-3 ERA right now.
Zito —> 7 BB
@ Rice Cube:
I’m amazed that he’s still in a Major League rotation.
If I knew what the Weyland Yutani Corporation was, I might insert a commercial like I did for SunnyD, but since I don’t, I guess they won’t get their full value of sponsorship.
@ SkipVB:
I’m too lazy to find a commercial with someone bursting with pride or something over their Weyland Yutani product
@ Berselius:
Your kids still aren’t in bed YET? Weyland Yutani–the holding company that provides the high taste of the high fructose corn syrup of SunnyD.
Apparently we also supplied some Weyland Yutani SunnyD to Barry Z tonight too.
Jered Weaver ———–> no hitter
I still can’t believe that Jeff “Shit Crap” Samardzija is in the rotation.
MGL
(dying laughing) I don’t thing mgl should comment on this issue until he throws a no-hitter.
Mish wrote:
You should definitely leave this as a comment over there.
@ Mish:
Does he even like baseball?
@ Mish:
I had three separate reactions to the highlighted quote:
1. He sounds like a robot
2. He sounds like MB
3. He has a point. Game recaps didn’t even bother mentioning no-hitters as if they were special until the 1920s, IIRC.
Was really impressed with Shark last night.. Just fucking cruised….
Also love me some Lahair
MO, I didn’t realize your real name is Bill.
.
.
.
bubblesdachimp wrote:
Some more potential sponsors for this series:
Iowa Beef Packers
Gotham Bus Co.
Spacely Sprockets
Mars Cheese Castle
Captain Morgan
UNICEF
Google Image Search
Suburban kid wrote:
(dying laughing)
fWAR has Shark already at 1.1
Maybe he is legit?
So Randy Wells back down i take it?
@ bubblesdachimp:
I think he is legit. He has looked damn good when he is on. Is he going to be a #1? No, unless he gets more consistent. But he will be a pretty good #3 if he can get his endurance up. He has got me excited for the season.
@ bubblesdachimp:
I’m guessing Wells and Maine go back to AAAA
Berselius wrote:
I’m hoping Camp goes instead of Maine. Not that it matters much in the slightest.
@ Berselius:
Play with 24….
Lets see What Happens
@ WaLi:
Wali I agree. He has been spectacular in three starts terrible in 1 and got rather unlucky against St Louis as i remember watching.. I was of the opinion before the season of fuck it lets see what happens and this was a great decision to see what he has.
Suburban kid wrote:
In what way?
<img src="http://i.imgur.com/deyri.jpg" alt="Kate
Post about hosting: http://www.obstructedview.net/other-topics/site-may-be-offline-this-weekend.html
I do agree with Tango said in the comments of that thread. A 0 hit, 3 walk performance by a pitcher is less impressive than a 1 hit, 0 walk performance. If we’re talking about how unimpressive a cycle is, I’d rather have 2 home runs and 2 singles. It’s still 10 total bases, but at least 2 of those hits resulted in runs.
Very proud of my hometown today:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dean-hamer-and-joe-wilson/jamestown-ny-lucy_b_1466850.html?ref=fb&src=sp&comm_ref=false