Brett Jackson hit a triple. He also struck out. That is all.
Logan Watkins was 3-6 and swiped his 18th bag of the year. Watkins is now sporting a stylish .370 OBP and will most likely end up in Iowa next season. Jae Hoon Ha was also 3-6 and hit his 4th HR of the year. On the pitching side of things Zach Rosscup earned a K on 5 of the 6 outs he recorded which is great but gave up a pair of runs which is not so great. Trey McNutt also was a big bowl of fail in the pen giving up 2 ER in 2.1 IP.
Spellcheck Jr went 2-4 and stole bases # 31 & 32 yesterday. Kyle(r) Burke's pitching performance was as stupid as his name as he gave up 4 ER in 6 IP.
Pin-Chieh Chen had a good game going 3-4 with 3 stolen bases and a walk. Chen was an all-star last year in Boise but has struggled to impress so far in Peoria. Nickelback stand in Chadd Krist was 2-4 and has just destroyed minor league pitching so far. Justin Berg (remember him?) worked 2 IP as he continues his rehab from TJ.
Bijan Rademacher hit 3 doubles yesterday and earned a promotion up to Peoria. Rademacher is a 2012 draft pick that was obviously too advanced for both AZL and Boise. Jeimer Candelario hit a walkoff HR for the win, his 5th of the year.
Dan Vogelbach did't get a hit but he did earn 3 walks and is just destroying this level. Shawon Dunston Jr hit a HR and hopefully is getting on the right track after a really rough start to his pro career. Lendy Castillo struck out 4 batters in 3.0 scoreless innings.
Seems like Candelario is too advanced for short-season ball too.
He has actually struggled a bit the last few weeks. Nice to see him flash the power again
No way we should trade dempster since we get two picks + all that bonus money unless we get a top 50 or two top 100s IMO
I would trade Dempster if all I got in return was a guarantee he’d never do that stupid fucking Harry Caray impression again.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
But that impression is worth 10 WAR!
@ Aisle424:
Woah. They are going to have to build a bunker around that thing.
@ Aisle424:
Who was flying over PSU?
im still mystified that people think Dempster might not be traded. My guess is he heads to the LAD and one of the guys we get back will be Garret Gould. done deal sealed
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ncaa-boss-wont-rule-out-death-penalty-penn-st
mb21 wrote:
At this point, all I know is they are people who are not fans of the statue. I’m sure police will be looking into it so they can pin any damage on whoever rented the plane.
dylanj wrote:
When you consider he is 35 and the team getting him is not guaranteed anything beyond this season, plus they don’t get comp picks when he leaves, I can see teams being reluctant to deal him. Dempster is pretty much the face of the franchise and the Cubs’ best pitcher, so they’re not going to deal him just for minor league roster filler. They’ll keep him, ride his hot streak to as many wins as they can get to keep the fanbase happy and then take their compensation picks when he turns down arbitration.
Theo and Jed are extremely comfortable with their ability to make good things happen with those picks, so they are going to need something real and I still don’t see other teams offering that. if I had to guess, I’d say the Dodgers would be the team that overpays, but if they were already that desperate, the deal would have been done by now.
@ Aisle424:
Not fans of the statue = every sane person on Earth
Those on campus = insane people
@ dylanj:
A really good Yankees blog looked at Dempster as an option for them to trade for and they came to the conclusion he was worth a player to be named later (Yankees take the salary). That’s all this Yankee fan would be happy with. There’s always a disconnect when it comes to how much fans of a team think they should get for their players vs what other fans think is a good deal. Who knows what they could end up getting, but some smart people think he’s worth a player to be named later.
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
I think the Red Sox negotiations are being held up until Dempster develops a Jerry Remy impersonation
mb21 wrote:
Eh, you know that the statue can just stay up since eventually people will just forget about this situation
/PSU Trustee
Dempster is gone after this year and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. He’s getting traded. And we are getting something good back. The reason he wasn’t dealt sooner is he had to get shut down for 3 weeks. Now that he’s shown he is healthy I don’t think we see him on the mound again as a Cub.
Berselius wrote:
Does Will Ferrell do a Jerry Remy impersonation?
@ mb21:
@ Aisle424:
It would not shock me me to learn this is a stunt by Anonymous. They’ve already sent the Pedo Bear to at least one PSU game.
am i missing something on Gould? He doesnt seem to be very good
@ Berselius:
Deadspin commenter on the unguarded statue article:
“So you’re saying someone could do whatever they wanted to the statue and the administration will simply look the other way for the next ten years?”
@ Aisle424:
Excellent post
he seems pretty good to me. He’d be the best pitching prospect in our system from day 1
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
I’ve actually wondered if they actually are thinking that. There really is no way they can come out and say they are going to tear it down. They would be slitting their own throat with the apologists, most of whom probably are heavy donors. So you say they’re keeping it for now, they don’t post any security and they hope some pissed off people do the dirty work for them, Saddam-style.
dylanj wrote:
The Paterno statue?
Aisle424 wrote:
FWIW a similar argument shows the risk in offering Dempster arbitration. He’s 35 years old, maybe we’ll see more of that old time collusion keeping his cost down, especially when younger guys like Hamels and Greinke could be on the market. I still think going after the picks is the right move, and I think that shopping Dempster is more due diligence.
It is disgusting to know that this has heavily increased alumni donor contributions to that shithole.
Gould is graded a B prospect by Sickels, which has a value of $7.3 million. Dempster has a little under $7 million remaining so if the Cubs pay all of it they might be able to get Gould.
Question is, is that better than 2 draft picks? I’d take the picks.
Does anyone sign Dempster in the off-season knowing they have to lose a 1st for him and pay him? I just don’t see him worth that to anyone. I think he gets traded and then signs either an extension with the team that gets him or signs with the Cubs as a FA.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
another good point
The problem is that in the past a team trading for Dempster could have gotten the comp picks so they’d be willing to give up a little more. Pitchers like Dempster were more appealing because their contract was up at the end of the year AND they’d get compensation picks. Now they don’t. The Cubs will want the value of the compensation picks plus Dempster’s value and the other team will only want to pay for the value.
If we look at this like money and just say the picks are $5 million and Dempster’s value is his contract ($6 million), the Cubs will rightfully want $11 million in value in return for Dempster, but the trading team will only want to give up $6 million in value. Right now Dempster is worth $11 million to the Cubs and only $6 million to another team. This is going to result in fewer rentals being traded.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
Why do they lose a first round pick if they sign him?
@ Berselius:
There could be collusion, but wouldn’t the Cubs know that? So that they could collude too?
I think Dempster has set himself up for at least a 2 year deal with an option, or maybe even 3 years if the market is nuts. He’d be crazy to leave that on the table. But even if he did and we’re stuck with him, somebody has to pitch and $12M for a year isn’t going to break a bank. I think the odds are in their favor that they get picks and I think those picks are worth more than what a sane, rational team would offer. Someone has to get crazy and I don’t see that happening yet.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
I get what you mean now. I assume they would because teams have given up those picks before so I don’t think it will be any different. Dempster is probably worth a 3 year deal for over $36 million at this point so I don’t think a team will have a problem giving up a first round pick to sign him this offseason.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
If Buehrle got 4 years and crazy money from the Marlins, I think Demp can easily get 2.
Fixed.
I’m just trying to play devil’s advocate here, badly as usual (dying laughing). One point in the Cubs favor for keeping Dempster is the stupid amount of FA money that’s likely to be available given the new CBA
you fuckin’ kids and your internet spreadsheets! you don’t know value! You just wait until the trades are done then you’ll see. You’ll all see!
I agree with 424 and b. I just don’t think any team is going to be crazy enough to offer what it would take to make sense for the Cubs to deal him. My guess is Dempster will be traded for a team’s top 2 or 3 prospect or not traded at all. A guy in that range is probably worth $10 million or a little more so it would make sense from the Cubs perspective to trade him if they got that kind of offer. It wouldn’t make the least bit of sense for another team to offer that though.
We’re funsuckers.
What’s the guarantee that the Cubs offer Dempster arbitration? I seem to remember Hendry being reluctant to doing that. Has Theo done it in the past? I may be misremembering though.
Also, you have to make sure Dempster turns it down. Is the $12M+ (was the value required for a pick this year I think) a lot less than he would get on the market?
So IF he turns it down then there has to be a buyer out there that would pay him $12M+ and be willing to give up their first round pick.
Am I wrong in my thinking for how we can get two picks? Otherwise we try to trade him this year and see what we can get which would be a guarantee, although probably won’t be worth two first round picks.
Really it could go either way.
@ dylanj:
I won’t be surprised if he’s traded. I’m just having a hard time figuring out how it will be beneficial to him. If all they get is Gould the Cubs got ripped off. He sounds like a good prospect, but he’s not worth what the Cubs should be aiming to get in return. The new CBA really makes this a lot more difficult to trade rentals. One team has to give up too much to acquire the player. Maybe teams will adjust and do that now. I’m not betting on it.
WaLi wrote:
Theo has done it often, which is why the Red Sox have had so many 1st and 2nd round picks. They’ll definitely offer Dempster arbitration. If he turns it down they get 2 draft picks. If he accepts it they get Dempster back for another year at about $15 million and that’s more than worth it. There’s no risk in offering arbitration.
@ WaLi:
At least if the Cubs offer arb and he accepts, they’ll be getting a pretty good pitcher for another year. The arb guys I remember were ones where it was a little tougher to justify value wise if they got stuck with it, like Rich Harden.
WaLi wrote:
Yes, he’d get much more than that on the open market. He’s probably looking at a deal for 3 years for at least $36 million. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see him get a 3/45 deal if our expectations that the value of the win increases thanks to the CBA is correct. He’ll get a 3-year offer from someone. Probably a few of them.
@ Berselius:
Agreed. The Cubs didn’t have great players enter free agency. Offering arb. to Kevin Gregg or Rich Harden would have turned out to be terrible ideas. Hendry would have offered arbitration to Ramirez and they’ll do it this offseason with Dempster.
@ WaLi:
I’m guessing Demp is worth 2 years and $25M guaranteed with another option year as a conservative estimate. He’d be leaving at least $10 million on the table at the age of 36 if he accepted arbitration. he might. He loves Chicago and playing for the Cubs for some reason. His daughter’s doctors are all here and he’s already made millions. So he could accept.
But I have a feeling Theo has already gauged Demps’ willingness to stay. If Theo knew for sure Demp would accept arbitration, then the value of the picks is out the window. That would make him a hell of a lot easier to deal, but we will not be pleased with what comes back in return.
@ Aisle424:
I think at Dempster’s age he’s much more likely to take the most money offered than someone younger is. This will definitely be Dempster’s last big pay day.
i just don’t accept our valuation process at this point. I don’t even think we are close to be honest. But I could be dead wrong. It will be interesting to see how all the trades shake out
@ mb21:
I can see his age being a reason to accept arbitration. He would want to stay in Chicago I would think and not move his family as his kid(s) are in schools (I assume). Plus he already has a lot of ties to the Cubs. And if he accepts arb then yeah, we get a good pitcher, but is it a pitcher we need for another year?
But yeah, I agree if there is an 80% chance of getting two draft picks then we should hold on to him. I don’t see getting that value back in a rental trade.
@ dylanj:
What part don’t you accept? We know how much the value of the win is. We have a pretty good idea how well Dempster will pitch the rest of the season though there’s a lot of variance in that estimate. As a result, we have a pretty good idea how much value Dempster will provide the rest of the way. We have a pretty good idea how much certain draft picks are worth. Because of this, we can can calculate what would be an acceptable trade for both teams so that one team isn’t getting ripped off. That’s all this is and it’s pretty basic.
I think what you’re saying is that you think Dempster is an example of a player who will fetch more than expected whereas I think a guy like Barney would bring less. Both are opinions. We could both be right and we could both be wrong. All I know is that I trust the valuation process. I don’t trust individual GMs to make deals that would match what the valuation process shows it should be. I’m very confident in Dempster’s surplus trade value. I’m not at all confident that other human beings making the ultimate decision will make one that fits within it. Overall, they will, but one deal? I wouldn’t bet a nickel on it.
Dempster’s xFIP is the exact same as last year, which is the exact same as the years before it. The reason his ERA is so low is because of he’s stranded 85.5% of the runners. I’d like to think that no GM thinks that will continue and I’d like to think that no GM thinks his less than 7% HR/FB rate will continue. I hope such a GM exists. In fact, I hope there’s a GM out there that thinks he’ll never allow another run based on his most recent 33 innings.
Another aspect I have no doubt that affects these deals is the inability for the trading team to get compensation picks. That HAS to affect the value someone like Dempster has to another team. There’s no denying that. Other teams liked picking up players like Dempster in the past because they could then turn around and get picks. Not any more.
mb21 wrote:
I’m even less confident that I can properly evaluate the deal with the knowledge I have because teams have more. The Dodgers have more info about their prospects than the Cubs do. We already know teams more about their players than other teams do and that teams tend to trade their MLB players who don’t perform as well as expected while they keep the ones who do. In other words, teams know enough to know which players won’t perform as the other team expects.
i will not be shocked if dempster gets another 3-45
The fucking wierd thing to me is EVERY national guy is saying he is going to be moved.. I would assume then everyone knows we are getting something good back?
I mean would yall do Dempster straight up for Minor, Vizcaino, Delgado OR Teahren?
@ bubblesdachimp:
The talk about him is heavy. Lots of teams want him, but I don’t think many media members take the time to bother actually looking at a players’ value. “He’s being discussed! He’s old! The Cubs are rebuilding! Of course they’ll trade him!”
@ Aisle424:
Exactly. Teams have a lot of interest and the Cubs suck so they think he’ll be traded. He might be. I don’t know, but I just don’t think the Cubs are going to get an offer that is acceptable.
@ Aisle424:
But i feel like the national guys like Gammons, Stark, Olney, Rosenthal etc. know that shit.. I think they know we can get two first rounders and no one else can.. Right?
Ryan W (Pittsburgh)
Which pitcher will be the first to move prior to the deadline?
Jayson Stark (12:52 PM)
I’m all in on Ryan Dempster in that derby. As I said earlier in the chat, one team that’s been talking to the Cubs told me they’d like to move him this week.
My bold… This is the shit i am talking about
@ bubblesdachimp:
Sometimes it doesn’t matter what they know, it matters what their audience wants to hear.
@ bubblesdachimp:
They may know that, but it doesn’t mean they know what the value of those picks are. Like I said, there are a lot of teams interested and some team might offer something good enough. I don’t think they do. I know if I was a GM I wouldn’t. 1 win just isn’t that valuable. 1 win isn’t going to change my playoff hopes that much. 1 win is not something I can’t acquire in another trade for less than it may take to get Dempster. It’s 1 win.
I completely agree, mb. I’m trying to explain this to another board and they can’t understand the concept that the Cubs need a lot back because of the picks.
They are also trying to tell me that Dempster will accept a one year arbitration deal because he loves the Cubs so much (dying laughing)
If that were true, he would decline arbitration and renegotiate a long term deal with the Cubs.
I think we are going to be very dissapointed possibly if the return isnt that good
@ jtsunami:
You might share these two links to help them understand the value of the draft picks. They do have value.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/3/777412/al-west-farm-system-values
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-bright-side-of-losing-santana/
@ bubblesdachimp:
I’m not going to be disappointed. It’s what I expect to get in return. The Cubs can justify trading him for less than they should get back. I’m OK with that. I probably wouldn’t, but it doesn’t mean it’s not a justifiable decision.
@ mb21:
Are you expecting 6 or 11 million in value though?
@ mb21:
This makes sense now, I did not think they would offer arb, but seeing what his number will be and what the market will pay for that, no chance they don’t offer arb to him. I now see it as very hard to believe some team will offer up more than what the Cubs will get if he walks away at the end of the season for just a 1 win rental.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
Yeah, it sounds to me like a lot of teams are interested (as the reporters are saying) but it could well be that while we’re thinking that one team will slip up and do something stupid, they’re all hoping the Cubs will slip up and do something stupid.
From Fangraphs Trade Value series:
@ Mish:
He could die in a fire. Just saying, that’s a possibility!
On the JoePoz bio on JoePa.
http://deadspin.com/5926592/
http://www.thecubreporter.com/2012/07/17/hamilton-vs-campana
@ josh:
That’s a real nice shortstop you have there. Sure would be a shame if something were to happen to him.
@ josh:
Hey, nice shortstop. I said, nice shortstop. Little shortstop’s havin’ a birthday, huh. Nice to have a shortstop. A man should take care, see that nothin’ happens to’hm.
anybody have a ESPN insider thing?
MLBTR commenters think Dempster will net tons of top prospects (dying laughing) and the Cubs will resign him again this winter (dying laughing)
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/cubs-working-to-move-dempster.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
He’ll single-handedly rebuild the team.
@ josh:
Grindy.
Is there a Cubs
gameseries preview today?http://www.isthereacubsseriespreviewtoday.com
Jonathan Sanchez —> DFA’d. Worth a look?
new shit
http://www.obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-carlos-zambrano-43-46-at-chicago-cubs-36-52.html