Rizzo left the game with a knee contusion as is listed as day to day. Soto went 1-4 with a 2B in his first game back and Brett Jackson struck out 3 more times.
Smokies
No Game
Nelson Perez was 3-4 with a HR and The Greg of Rohan went 2-5. Alcantara continues to impress with his bat in a pitchers league and is hitting .291. Goldstein had a write up about him the other day but I don't have insider so I would imagine he said Alcantara has average speed.
Javier Baez went 2-4 and stole a pair of bases as well. I didn't know he had this kind of speed but he has already accumulated 7 SB's and has yet to be caught. The kid can do it all. In low A. He also made 3 errors in one game so Dave Kaplan probably needs to remind him to focus.
85 K in 272 PA for Jackson. If he gets 600 PA, he’ll K almost 190 times at this rate. He now also owns a higher MiLB career K-rate than Drew Stubbs.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
What worries me is the trend since 2010: 20.2% K%, 23.5, 24.9, 29.8, 30.6. It’s not surprising that he’d strike out more, but some of these are at the same level and they just keep increasing. While I do think we have to expect regression, it’s a huge concern at this point I think. I’d expect about 24% at the MLB level, but I wouldn’t put $1 on it.
@ mb21:
I look at that and one name comes to mind: Corey Patterson.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Rob Deer. Adam Dunn. Mark Reynolds. Guess they all have more power than Jackson though.
Here’s an interesting article from Sportsline about having an Asst Hiiting Coach.
Some clubs have moved to a tandem coaching situation for hitting, like pitching and bullpen coach for pitching. They briefly mention Jaramillo’s firing and San Diego having a tandem hitting coach situation under Hoyer. Makes sense to me. One can focus on crafting swings (like Jaramillo, I guess) and the other can do “approach”, as Theo mentioned.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
The big difference between those two is that Patterson swung at everything. Jackson is going to take his walks, but the strikeout rate is becoming a huge concern in my opinion.
@ SVB:
Way more power from all those guys. Nothing about Jackson’s skill set suggest he can be successful as a 3TO player. Also:
Dunn’s MiLB K-rate–18%
Reynolds’ MiLB K-Rate–23%
Deer’s MiLB K-Rate–27%
Jackson is at almost 26%. At AAA, he’s a 31%.
mb21 wrote:
This.
@ mb21:
Yeah, his walk rate has at least held between 12%-14% even as his K-rate has risen, although it’s dipped to 9% this year at Iowa.
Brett has a good recap of Theo’s presser yesterday
http://www.bleachernation.com/2012/06/13/theo-and-jed-speak-trade-season-cubs-performance-albert-almora-jorge-soler-rudy-jaramillo/
Can anyone say “fire sale”
@ Berselius:
Yeah, seems like they may be backing the truck up soon.
@ Berselius:
Fire sale implies you have multiple players teams would want. I see Garza and Dempster and a whole lot of question marks. Even Dempster won’t bring much in return (will have his trade value post published in a couple hours or so). I’m not even convinced Garza would bring a whole lot in return. More than Dempster, but not a lot. It’s not like they’re going to get a blue chip prospect or anything for him. The Cubs are having what is essentially a going out of business sale. All the other shit that people wanted is already gone and now they have to mark things down to get rid of the rest.
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
sorry, man, i should’ve been more specific . i only looked at the Cubs and kept it to kids 22 or under. on those terms, there ain’t much like Rizzo. i totally agree that other players in PCL history have trumped what Rizzo is doing. he might be good, he might not, but i can see why Cub fans would get hyped about it.
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
shudder
@ mb21:
Fine, liquidation sale then (dying laughing)
mb21 wrote:
in some respects it’s scarier for that fact. CPat swung at a lot of shit no one could’ve hit. Jackson — though there’s no pitchfx for him, is there? — is much better disciplined (which should keep him from CPat’s fate) but is clearly swinging and missing at a lot of hittable pitches.
@ gaius marius:
I think he’ll be a good player (about American League average is my guess). That’s valuable. The reason I’m not all that excited is that he’s a 1st baseman. He has to hit so damn well due to the fielding adjustment. I was a lot more excited about Brett Jackson entering the season since he plays a premium position. I’m more excited about Rizzo now though, but he’s a 1st baseman. Appears to be a very good hitting 1B, but still.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m going to love it if the Cubs have a lefty masher playing 1st for a long time and hope he is that guy, but why couldn’t he be a corner outfielder? (dying laughing)
You forgot to mention whatever prospect the Cubs could get for Reed Johnson, MB. They could get a guy who projects as a lockdown fifth inning reliever.
Berselius wrote:
was talking to ccd about this yesterday. nothing is better than 1998 or 2003-type years, but i’d much much much rather see 110 losses than 81. mediocrity is what compels me to tune out. if we’re going to be bad, let’s do it right and start the 1962 mets talk. i’ll watch every damn game.
@ gaius marius:
The way I see it is that Patterson was swinging missing early in the count while Jackson is taking borderline strikes. He does work very deep counts and that leads to strikeouts, but he also has Corey Patterson disease in that sometimes his swings have zero chance of making contact. It’s a big concern at this point. I’m not worried about him being Patterson. Patterson had power, defense and speed to fall back on, but Jackson has power, defense, speed and the ability to get on base.
I said before the season I think we’re looking at a .250/.350/.450 hitter at the big league level. Maybe in a few years it will be closer to .270/.370/.490 or so. That’s very good production in CF and if he can run the bases well and play defense that’s valuable.
Now I’m thinking more like .240/.340/.425. Not as exciting, but could still be quite valuable at league minimum.
i said it the other day but when you watch Jackson is weird how his approaches his AB’s. There are AB’s that are totally Korey Patterson 2.0- like 3 swinging strikes at shitty pitches bad. Then there are ones where he shows very good patience. Its hard to put a finger on exactly what causes his contact issues but they do exist
@ gaius marius:
Same here.Though it would be nice if the Cubs had some more future talent on the roster other than Castro and maybe Samardzija. Just have to wait for callup time.
MD- have you used your method of valuation and compared it to trades from the last few years? It would be interesting to see if your #’s match up what teams are giving in the real world
Hopefully Rizzo and Jackson are still in AAA when they come to Austin next week
FWIW, Patterson’s MiLB K-Rate was 19%…with a 6% BB-Rate (dying laughing)
how the Boise season goes will say alot about the system as well. Most of the big money guys from the 2011 class are making their debut along with some of the best kids from the DSL league that we have had in a few years. Hopefully a handful have a good showing.
@ dylanj:
You gotta worry that the players will get distracted by the fast-moving, high risk culture of Idaho. I hear it’s all hookers and blow in Boise.
@ mb21:
i’d still be more excited for Jackson, fwiw, scary K rate and all. kid has compiled a 286/384/490 line in the minors and plays a double-plus centerfield. he’s not been overwhelmed at any of his promotions, even as a 22-y/o in the PCL. has hit lefties well. going to be a major value-add for the Cubs, imo.
@ dylanj:
that makes it sound like experience issues, which would be very good indeed.
@ gaius marius:
Is Jackson rated that well defensively? Everything I seem to remember says he is average to above average in CF
@ Berselius:
you guys know better than i do. i read things like this and sometimes believe them.
i have heard average in CF as well. But he seems to play better than that to the naked eye. He does have a pretty damn strong arm fwiw
I’m very cautious with Jackson. Take a look at the K leaders in MLB the last few years. None of them had as high a k-rate in the minors. I mean this kid is K’ing at a higher rate than Dunn, Reynolds and Stubbs.
@ gaius marius:
They just said he has the potential to develop into a gold glove guy, which I don’t read much into at all. Good defenders are good defenders, and defense peaks pretty young.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
It sure would be great if he struck out less, but it’s not the only stat. Just like how it would sure be great if Starlin Castro walked more, but he’s still posted a .331 wOBA at a premium position, good enough for 6-7 oWAR in about two season’s worth of PAs
@ Berselius:
I see that, but I don’t find too many guys who have been able to that at the MLB level while sporting a almost 30% k-rate, which is where Jackson would be if we saw the expected 3-5% jump from his MiLB rate.
I wonder who Jackson’s PECOTA comps are. B-ref doesn’t have theirs yet since he hasn’t really appeared in mlb
@ Berselius:
Yeah, that would be interesting to see.
If Brett Jackson is Drew Stubbs with more K’s and more walks, I’m okay with that
@ Berselius:
Oh, for sure. That’s still a valuable player. I just worry about a player who strikes out at such an egregious rate.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
yeah, i remember dallas mcpherson and that didn’t turn out so well. exploited like a russian orphan, iirc.
@ gaius marius:
Yeah, but he just never took walks as a major leaguer.
@ Berselius:
the 2012 BP comps for Jackson are here, i think — mike jorgensen, b.j. upton, joe benson
gaius marius wrote:
No doubt. That’s what has bothered me about the Cubs since 2010. I knew this year they’d be bad, but they have almost nobody exciting to watch. I want a reason to watch and this team has few.
You forgot to insert “{Autographed} Paul Blart: Mall Cop Extended Directors Cut DVD”
Speaking of swings and misses. Tyler Colvin has like a 5% BB rate and a 26% K rate. His wRC and ISO look all right, so he’s making good contact, he just refuses not to swing. I hope he and BJax aren’t a fair comp?
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
if your contact rate is as bad as mcpherson’s was, you cannot swing at many out-of-zone pitches and have a hope.
just looking at the swinging-strike leaders there (a la mcpherson) doesn’t give a guy much hope anyway, if jackson really does swing-and-miss very frequently.
@ gaius marius:
That’s a good point. We ought to really look at how Jackson K’s and not just the K’s.
@ dylanj:
Theoretically it should work on average, dj. The values are determined by the value that those types of prospects provide. While one team may give out a contract worth $6.5 million per win and another $2.5 million the average works out to about $5 million. Not all contracts are going to be $5 million of course, but the average will be. I don’t really see a strong argument why the numbers wouldn’t also match up with regards to trades.
One player may end up getting a lot more than expected while another a lot less, but overall the average is going to be pretty damn close. Maybe there’s some team that values ERA much more than FIP and Dempster is valued a lot more than he should be. Maybe some team just figures Dempster can push them from 87 wins and 2 out of the wild card to 89 and in the playoffs. Maybe that team pays more. I don’t know.
FWIW, my lying eyes tell me that teams get less for players than the trade value would suggest. That could be right and it might not be. I’m just not sure and to be completely honest not that interested in looking into it. It’s a ballpark number that provides a starting point. The Cubs might get less for Dempster than I’m thinking and they might get more. It IS going to depend on other non-quantifiable factors. Call it a gut instinct that a GM has about a player. A miscalculation of his value. Whatever. They’re human and they deviate from what we would expect on paper.
I would be willing to place money on the trade value as I and others have calculated that they are relatively accurate.
Sometimes you just get people involved. Josh Byrnes is apparently a very intelligent individual, but trading Rizzo for Cashner is just plain stupid. Even if you think Cashner can be a really good starter the Padres gave up too much. They miscalculated a few times. They thought Alonso was the better player. Right now he might be, but it’s hard to argue that he’ll provide more surplus value than Rizzo would have. The Padres decided that they wanted to the more MLB ready player now even though they can’t contend. They also over-valued Cashner as a reliever AND as a starter.
On the other hand, the Cubs may well have miscalculated Sean Marshall’s value. I don’t really know.
gaius marius wrote:
I hope so, gm. I’ve been high on Jackson since the day he was drafted. I absolutely loved to see the Cubs take a college hitter with that pick and one who had the advanced ability to draw walks that he had. And the position of course. Loved it. Not down on him now, but a little concerned. That’s an alarmingly high strikeout rate that will keep his average and therefore OBP and SLG down too.
@ Berselius:
any bets?
i’ll guess they’ve been caught hiding positive doping tests.
@ mb21:
if we put a probability or range of values expected it might be better, but I don’t know how to get there. I’m not sure it’s even possible without a lot of research. Best I could do is give a wild ass guess that would still come with a great deal of error. Say for Dempster there’s a 50% chance he has essentially no trade value, there might be a 10% chance he has as much as $10 million or so. Perhaps as little as not being worth it to trade him. I really don’t know. Like I said, it’s a ballpark figure that should work pretty well. But it’s possible it’s just bullshit. I’d be surprised if that were true, but who knows? Teams are relatively smart these days and they’re not just handing away top prospects for fringe players like they once did. They’re doing some math. Can’t be too different than what the trade values I publish are.
@ gaius marius:
I’m guessing it’s the Cubs and their supposed handshake agreement with Soler and that it happens a lot with international players.
@ gaius marius:
I hope it doesn’t have anything to do with Soler. IIRC Badler was one of the guys who was following that situation closely for the past few months.
Im guessing an umpire scandal
Bob Brenley has been running a secret Instant Replay ring with Umpires planted in a booth in the score box.
Badler has found out that Selig is actually a Crab Person.
@ Berselius:
Collusion.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
That’s just MLB’s business model.
@ josh:
(dying laughing) too true
one trade that would be interesting to use MD’s eval on is the Grienke one. Thats about the biggest haul of prospects I’ve seen for a top level SP in the last few years
@ Berselius:
like this? second-to-last para looks… well, no good.
yeah its probably about Soler. It would be typical Cubs to get busted for what goes on all the fucking time (dying laughing)
sigh of relief
@ gaius marius:
Crasnick said a few days ago that the paperwork checked out, despite the shady route it took.
@ Berselius:
And Muskat tweeted yesterday that Soler is just waiting on his work visa to come through.
So David Stern was on the Jim Rome show today and things got weird…
dylanj wrote:
Bit by bit…
Jeffress 51-75 pitcher: $12.1 million
Cain Grace C+ hitter 23 and older: .5 million
More to come
Escobar is tough to figure out. He was highly rated prior to 2010, but sucked ass that year. He didn’t have a whole lot of trade value at that point, but I’m generous: 5 million
Jeffress above should be Odorizzi. Sorry.
@ Berselius:
Is Soler’s dad a buscone?
Jeffress 23 and older grade C 1.5 million
Royals get: Odorizzi ($12.1 million), Jeffress (1.5 million), Cain (.5 million), most exciting player in baseball (5 million because I’m nothing if not generous). Total: 18.1 million
Greinke was in the middle of a 4/38 contract that paid $27 million of it the final 2 years (what the Brewers were on the hook for). 4.1 WAR CAIRO projection. Give me a minute
Since he’s still in his peak we’ll keep the 4.1 WAR projection for 2011. That’s 8.2 WAR total over 2 years, paid $27 million, value is $38.95 million. Surplus trade value is $11.95 million. Wait. We should expect him to a be a type A free agent so that’s $5 million more. Total surplus trade value equals $16.95 million.
The Brewrs also got Yuni and he has next to no value (say .5 million).
Brewers got $17.45 million in value while trading away $18.1 million.
Pretty fucking close actually.
That was Greinke’s 2011 CAIRO projection.
mb21 wrote:
Should be 2012 rather than 2011.
To clarify, I used the 2011 CAIRO projections and kept the WAR the same since he’s in his peak. Someone could make an argument that Escobar was worth more than $5 million, but after that Cedeno-esque season I just don’t buy it. Did Ronny Cedeno even have $5 million in value after his horrific 2006 season? Doubtful.
I’d say both teams did their home work on this deal and Yuni was the throw in to make up for the negligible difference in value.
@ Berselius:
That’s a big scandal?
@ mb21:
Trying to figure that out too. I guess it could lead to lashback against the entire Dominican system or something? Maybe it implies that the age-lying thing is even more prevalent in DR? I don’t know why it’s a huge scandal otherwise.
@ mb21:
That had to be the Royals thinking about shoring up infield defense or something. I imagine they asked for him and the Brewers GM was like “Really? I mean, I GUESS we could let him go…”
very interesting MD. I remember thinking that Ordozzi needed to step up for the deal to work for KC and so far he is still a top arm.
@ dylanj:
I’m actually surprised it worked out so evenly. Usually there’s more error in those huge packages, but that’s pretty damn close. As I said, there’s room to wiggle with Escobar. I don’t think he was worth even $5 million and personally wouldn’t have given him a surplus value of more than $1 million after that horrible season. He did bounce back, but mostly defense IIRC. No way he had more than $5 million though.
cool article on minor league teams http://sports.yahoo.com/news/how-billionaires-like-warren-buffett-profit-from-minor-league-baseball-ownership.html
Theo on Castro
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/10937/castro-has-answered-big-question-for-theo?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Theo and Dempster are talking to each other at a Cubs game. EVERYBODY PANIC AND/OR SPECULATE
/twitter right now
@ Berselius:
Saw. Facepalm’d.
I have no idea what it pertains to but #unluckyMBfan is trending. Are you not treating your people well, mb?
@ Berselius:
There’s a Cubs game right now?
@ Marilyn Hagerty:
False.
@ Marilyn Hagerty:
In a few hours there might be.
@ Rice Cube:
If they’re still talking then, I might be convinced it’s newsworthy. Or if Theo throws Dempster off the balcony and, as Demp falls screaming to his death says, “This is my team, now.” That’s DEFINITELY NEWS.
@ josh:
This screams for a new OBB.
shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/projections/how-much-is-ryan-dempsters-trade-value.html
n/m