Brett Jackson is relevant because of his slugging. In the last 3 games he has 3 HR's and a bunch of strikeouts like always. His average is in the 200's his OBP in the 300's but he is slugging over .500 and thats not a bad thing to have. Josh Vitters went 1-3 and is now batting .287 on the year. The guys over at Cubs Den were looking at some numbers the other day and while Vitters looks at very few pitches per AB he also almost never swings outside of the zone. He seems to be selectively aggressive which is what you want to have. He also has a very high contact rate for pitches in the zone which is another good sign.
Smokies
Suspended
Daytona
same
When I saw that Peoria had scored 12 runs I was hoping 8 of them came from Javier Baez but sadly he only went 1-5 with a run scored. Most of the damage was caused by Zeke DeVoss who was 1-3 with a HR and 2 BB and his 17th SB to boot. Dustin Geiger also had a game going 1-4 with a HR. On the pitching side Yao Lin Wang earned another save even though he should really be starting.
Lots to talk about with Boise. Over the weekend Jeimer Candelario just continues to crush everything in sight. He now has a 1.070 OPS on the year and 4 HR's in his last 5 games. And he is 18. This is good. Candelario is not the only guy tearing up short season as Gioskar Amaya has been just as hot. Amaya went oppo last night and is sporting a .375/.432/.650 line. Both of these guys are names to watch in BA's top 100 next year. Shawon Dunston Jr also went yard last night his first pro HR. Our system has some good bats but we lack pitching just about everywhere.
What numbers are these people at Cubs Den talking about? I just don’t believe that he doesn’t swing outside the zone. As much as he swings a pitcher would be braindead to not throw him pitches off the plate more often than a selective hitter. If this was in the low minors I might agree, but not in AAA.
Nice to see some guys standing out in the low minors.
worst team in baseball = worst price gougers
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/price-gouging-in-2012/
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2012/06/a-different-perspective-on-mlb-ready-prospects-rizzo-jackson-castillo-lake-and-vitters/
@ gaius marius:
He couldn’t believe it wasn’t butter.
@ mb21:
where do they get plate discipline data from the minors? and is it reliable?
(dying laughing) Lycos
I was partial to HotBot. Anyone remember Dogpile?
Pink Floyd ftw
http://now.msn.com/now/0624-sandusky-singing.aspx
@ gaius marius:
I’m wondering the same thing and the answer is almost certainly this: it’s not the least bit reliable. Even the non-pitchf/x plate discipline numbers on Fangraphs aren’t reliable and I’ve never seen any data from minor leagues.
The one thing we know for sure is this: 12.3% of his plate appearances result in a strikeout swinging while only 2.5% are looking. That’s not a guy swinging in the zone. One additional thing I saw today was that he’s been IBBd 3 times this year. his IBB rate is 1.1% while is NIBB% is 4.3% (lower than at any other point in his career).
@ dylanj:
That doesn’t say where the numbers are from. I’ve never seen any reliable plate discipline numbers for minor leaguers. It’s not on Fangraphs, Bref, Statcorner (all of Statcorners plate discipline numbers are blank fwiw).
The 4.3% is lower than it’s been since 2009. Not the lowest in his career.
The lowest O-Swing% in the big leagues is Jed Lowrie’s 19.3%. There are only 2 players at the MLB level below 20% (Lowrie and jemile Weeks).
Combining 2010, 2011 and 2012 shows only 3 players below 20% (Daric Barton at 15.3%, Bobby Abreu 19.1% and Brett Gardner 19.8%).
Mark Reynolds owns the lowest O-Con% in the big leagues at 49.6%. Nobody else is below 50%.
There’s no reason to think that Vitters will be any more disciplined than Castro. Castro’s O-Swing rate is 39.5% this year. Average is 28.5%. His O-Con rate will probably be a bit below the 64.4% league average.
Chicago Now just got their fagety ass minor league stats handed to them by MB.
@ WaLi:
I’m still very curious what metrics John is using. I’m guessing he’s trying to calculate it himself somehow, but you need that data from play by play stats and you need stringers as well. Or you need pitch f/x data. Maybe John got himself some pfx data for AAA, but the numbers are still way off. If those are the numbers he got then they’re wrong because they don’t come close to being anywhere near accurate.
i asked the author where it came from. Stay tuned for further developments #scandal
@ mb21:
That’s fine so long as they are fleecing the suckers to build a better team.
@ dylanj:
Thanks. I’m disregarding the numbers no matter what because they’re not the least bit feasible, but I am interested. I was looking at various stats and seeing if I could calculate the numbers he got, but I don’t think I can.
I, too, was wondering where he got that data. Fangraphs uses stringers from scouts, inc. (or BIS, can’t remember which) for their major league data. My guess was someone pulling from the available pitchf/x data, but I dunno.
Let’s pretend those numbers are accurate. What we know from them is that they’re completely useless in terms of how they’re plate discipline numbers will be at the MLB level. Either that or the Cubs have the strangest set of prospects ever invented. Prospects that never swing outside the zone yet don’t walk all that often. But I know they can’t be. There’s just no conceivable way that Josh Vitters is seeing 62% strikes and swinging at only 7% out of the zone AND seeing under 3.15 pitches per plate appearance. Not to mention that he has a below average contact rate. It’s just not possible.
(dying laughing) Poz on Youk
Regarding the last post about Alvin: It is pretty rediculous that someone who is paid to write for a living can’t be held accountable for his plagiarism. You would think the people paying him would give a shit. I guess no one cares when Sullivan plagiarizes either though.
I don’t get it. I am just a lowly engineer and I plagiarize documents all the time. But I copy the documents from other divisions within the company to be used at my location and I say I did it. I don’t want to be given credit for stealing documents I didn’t write. I would think as someone who does this for a living you’d want to have more integrity than that.
@ GW:
I think they get it from BIS, but now that you have pfx plate discipline numbers there’s just no reason to use the ones they have.
This? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4579&position=SS#platediscipline
or this? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4579&position=SS#pfxplatediscipline
I’ll take the pfx ones.
@ WaLi:
I’d guess Al isn’t paid much or anything at all, but rather he rakes in a ton of money through advertisements. I refuse to go over there for that reason. He probably also gets money from SBNation if people who register at BCB post elsewhere. Maybe.
I haven’t read what Al wrote or what Chuck wrote. The titles are obviously the same, but that doesn’t mean it’s plagiarism. I’ll leave it to others who have read them to decide. I personally couldn’t care less. If Paul Sullivan gets away with it then I definitely don’t care if some blogger does.
That’s just my 2 cents on it anyway.
The only thing I’d add about it is that it’s typical Alvin to delete comments he doesn’t want the masses to read. If he felt confident about what he’d written why not just leave Chuck’s comment up and let the others see for themselves?
@ WaLi:
Accountability?!? What Internet have YOU been using?
@ mb21:
It seems like a fairly obvious joke, and it’s certainly not the first variation on the Dead Parrot sketch. Hell, John Cleese did a version of the Dead Parrot sketch at Graham Chapman’s memorial.
@ mb21:
That said, the comments on Al’s blog are mind-numbingly stupid.
@ josh:
True. I’d have to read both articles or all of the ones Chuck did to know whether or not it’s plagiarized and I have no interest in doing it. I don’t really care what Al wrote and I don’t care to read about past Cubs failures. Since 424 stresses it’s plagiarism I’ll take him at his word and leave it at that.
josh wrote:
That should be BCBs slogan.
Bleed Cubbie Blue: Posts and comments that are mind-numbingly stupid
Al be so stupid.
Chuck and 424 have not proved it was plagiarism.
But Al, once again, has proved he’s a complete douchestain.
@ Suburban kid:
Exactly this.
Rizzo —> leaving on a jet plane
I just tried to read the plagirism at BCB but my work has blocked that site saying it’s “Newsgroups and message boards”. But I can get on OV. Just goes to show that it’s still at least the 23rd best Cubs blog when it’s able to pass web filters.
iowa confirms the call up.
fwiw cubs den replied John Arguello @CubsDen
@Dylanj85 Few places…Fangraphs, Baseball-Ref, Minor League Central
View conversation
Reply Retweet Favorite
I told him to drop by to help md figure it out
@ dylanj:
HUZZAH!
RIZZO!!!!!!
OMG OMG OMG!!!!
im trying to make a list of other recent big name 1B prospects and how the fared in the bigs. Smoak, Alonso, Fielder.. who else?
Goldschmit
Suburban kid wrote:
No, by definition, it really isn’t plagiarism. but it is stealing a joke. It would be like if Yellon did a Harry Caray impression and tried to pass it off as original and then block and ban anybody who pointed out it was done before.
@ dylanj:
Votto would be about the same timing as Fielder, right?
Yellon is guilty of being a hack and a douche. The plagiarism is overstating it.
Ike Davis?
@ Aisle424:
It’s the blocking and banning that really highlights what a childish asswipe he is.
Rizzo blows Smoak out of the water, was a little worse than fielder- harder to compared to Goldschmidt because he was younger than Goldschmidt though their mutal path of destruction is fun to watch,
The interesting thing about Rizzo is that until he got to AAA he was a good but not great hitting prospect.
Smoak was ranked really really high coming into his age 22 season and I can’t really see why. Not a ton of power.
much better in the minors than Ike Davis. Votto is pretty close Votto was better in A and AA but didnt touch Rizzo’s AAA #’s.
Votto, Hosmer, Goldschmidt, Belt, Freeman, Kila, Loney, LoMo, Brett Wallace, Matt LaPorta…
daric barton…
chris davis, lars anderson (sorta), steve pearce…
If you REALLY wanted to, couldn’t you look at Montero and Trumbo as well?
kyle blanks, chris carter, conor jackson, kendrys morales
@ Mish:
yep.
Hosmer was a little better imo- Freeman might be as well he just moved up really really quick. But again Rizzo lost a year to cancer so I guess I cant hold that against him
rizzo was way better than LaPorta, Chris Davis has a pretty similar track record
blanks and and rizzo are pretty even
@ dylanj:
tough to compare. laporta was a college guy who was put through the minors very quickly (and did well at every level). infamously traded for c.c., of course.
adam lind
GW- true but Goldschmidt was a college bat too and CRUSHED those early levels in a way LaPorta never did
Win.
Dammit, how do you embed a tweet. This stuff is hard.
@ dylanj:
yeah, but goldschmidt wasn’t even considered a prospect until just before his callup. laporta was a blue chipper through and through. iirc, goldschmidt had the hitters track in the minors as well, the california league(?), texas league, and pcl
belt was similar to goldschmidt, bashed his way up without ever being that highly regarded
thats true. Im really only looking at production not what scouts think. Yet the scouts loved Smoak & LaPorta and the both suck (dying laughing)
@ jtsunami:
You have to go to the individual tweet page in twitter, there’s a button that gives you the html for embedding
@ jtsunami:
Only admins get the shiny embedded tweets. Us slogs have to make do with block quotes.
@ GW:
Based on what I’ve seen on twitter, he’s still not that highly regarded by management (dying laughing)
@ dylanj:
If you want to look at similar players some will be be better and some will be worse. You’re better off looking at the BA rankings.
@ Berselius:
so true.
eh im just messing about. I will say that I haven’t seen anyone else do what rizzo did at AAA at his age. Some did better earlier some did better later but I think he wins the AAA @ 21-22 award
They do have those numbers on Minor League Central, but they’re still bogus. http://minorleaguecentral.com/player.php?pid=519388
I’d like to know how they’re collecting the data. Watching the PCL games and charting it themselves would be about as accurate as those numbers are.
@ dylanj:
that sounds about right.
We should Savor Every Moment of the Rizzo callup, since it’s going to be the lone highlight of the season
Raley with another excellent start at Iowa.
They do offer splits for 2011 and 2012 so that’s awesome. I’d assume the standard numbers are at least correct there. Minor League Splits offers them through 2010 so that’s awesome.
@ dylanj:
Ike Davis was an interesting one, never that impressive until he got to the bigs. iirc he talked in an interview once about how Brett Wallace was a much better hitter than him in college (dying laughing)
Still small samples, but Brett Jackson has been better against lefties than righties in each of the last 2 seasons. You’d still have a lot of regression to do, but that’s a good sign.
another 2 K day for Jackson and Vitters hits HR 13
Jackson has been better vs lefties throughout his career by an estimated 40 to 50 points of OPS. Still only a little over 500 PA vs lefties though.
Jackson is going to approach a 40 % K rate at this pace. Its weird how they can’t seem to make a dent in this part of his game.
If we’re talking similar players, why are we limited it to 1st basemen? If he was a SS or a C I could see the point in doing so.
@ dylanj:
It won’t be that high. Either he lowers it or he doesn’t play in the big leagues very long. There are only 13 players who have struckout over 25% of the time since 2010. Only Dunn and Reynolds and struckout over 30% of the time.
its over 35 % right now and the last few weeks he has been damn near 50 %
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/prospects-who-might-be-called-up-soon-part-1.html
@ dylanj:
i remember klaw raving about smoak as recently as 3 months ago. the same klaw that gives up on every prospect as soon as they have played a full season in Hi-A ball.