What more can be said about Rizzo? Another night another pair of HR's and a ringing ground rule double. The future looks bright at 1B. Josh Vitters was 2-4 with a BB as well. Also, can somebody tell me why Jay Jackson still has a job?
Trey McNutt's ERA finally caught up with his secondary #'s as he was rocked last night. 9 hits and 8 ER in 3.1 IP will do that do you and we can forget about this guy being anything but a RP. Junior Lake was 1-5 with a HR and BB. In his first rehab appearance Beef Castle lit up the other team to the tune of 1-2 with a HR and BB.
Matt Loosen put up a hell of a start working 6 shutout innings where he allowed only 2 hits and struck out 7. Loosen is somewhat of an interesting arm he struck out nearly a batter per inning last year and is doing the same so far this year as well. That said he is 23 and in Daytona so nothing to get overly excited about. His good pitching must have been contagious because even Hayden Simpson decided to show up striking out 2 batters in a clean inning of relief work.
Geraldo Concepcion was terrible (must still be working on that fastball command!) and Javier Baez had the night off. Thats all you need to know.
To the guy who asked why I like Vitters-
First off he’s been young for every level and while he has never dominated he hasn’t got worse either. A league average performance at 22 in AAA isn’t something to to dismiss. Reports are that his defense has improved and his walk rate is the best its ever been. Law still says his swing is very pretty for a RH hitter and I just think there is still upside there. If he wasn’t “Josh Vitters former # 3 pick” I think we would be pleased with what he is doing so far.
@ WaLi:
In the PCL? Without looking, probably quite a few. Hell, Micah Hoffpauir carried a 1.145 OPS over 313 PA in the PCL in 2008, and immortals such as Larry Sutton, Calvin Pickering, and Jason DuBois have done the same. In Rizzo’s age group, you see names like Travis Snider, Kila, and CarGo putting up big OPS numbers in the PCL. It’s a good young hitter tearing a league that is very hitter-friendly. That’s a fact, and saying that does not diminish in the least what Rizzo is doing. It just helps me to realize that what he is doing right now is no guarantee of big league success. Doesn’t make his season any less impressive, though. That is for damn sure.
EnricoPallazzo wrote:
That’s exactly what it is (Tortuga from Breaking Bad)
@ dylanj:
Yeah he has
2008 A-, 277 PA: 130 wRC+
2009 A, 288 PA, 148 wRC+
2009 A+, 196 PA, 71 wRC+
2010A+, 120 PA, 133 wRC+
2010 AA, 228 PA, 85 wRC+
2011 AA, 488 PA, 99 wRC+
2012 AAA 236 PA, 94 wRC+
doing at 22 vs mid to late twenties helps.
so basically his average is being around league average. And always at a young age. That was my point
I guess they need someone to throw batting practice every five days.
Age is important, but so is professional experience. He’s played for 6 years and has played in nearly 500 games and almost has 2000 plate appearances. The two players below are not equal (their age is one factor, but their experience is another).
22 year old drafted in 2010
22 year old drafted in 2007
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Even crazier when you consider that the Cubs got him for a guy whose future is probably in the bullpen
@ dylanj:
Average in the minor leagues is below average at the mlb level. We’ve seen how Vitters has gotten worse as he’s moved up the system and the same will happen at the MLB level. I do think he can hit lefties well enough to wear a big league uniform, but there’s just too much to improve to be a starter.
I’m excited for Rizzo too, and I say that expecting him to just be an average player in the majors.
http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2012/06/12/tpa-dispatches-the-new-five-most-underrated-player-in-baseball/
Rich Hill ————>out a month or more. How fitting it would be if Prior took his place (dying laughing)
Doesn’t this post need more Jake Fox?
@ Berselius:
I meant Vitters, but yeah it’s crazy to think Cashner and Rizzo were traded for one another. I’d do that deal every time, even if Rizzo is only an average MLB player.
@ Berselius:
I’m expecting a American League average (2.5 WAR) out of him so yeah, that’s extremely valuable considering it’s cost-controlled.
I think you’re both right on Vitters, dj and mb. It seems like he’s improved his stock a lot in the past few months, but the problem is that his stock was so low to begin with. He’s gone from worthless to utility player. For what it’s worth I think his defense has improved this year, if my memory isn’t failing me yet again.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/josh-beckett-futile-bat-strong-advertisement-universal-dh-120800908–mlb.html
I’d be more excited about pitchers at-bat if they actually gave a shit.
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/6/12/3079356/jorge-soler-signing-chicago-cubs-bryce-harper
Bonus to the Soler signing – it could knock Koyie Hill off the 40-man roster depending on timing.
@ Mish:
I mentioned Fox earlier, but Hoffpauir actually did more damage at AAA.
It’s too bad Trey McNutt didn’t recover this season. I didn’t think he would, but I was hopeful anyway.
@ Berselius:
He still makes a shitload of errors for a 3rd baseman and since he’s slow we could never expect much from him anyway. I think he’s a Jeff Baker so I’d like to see the Cubs get him some playing time at 2nd base in the minors. The more positions he can play the more useful he could be.
I also think the Cubs should call him up now. The odds he ever reaches free agency or costs the Cubs anything meaningful as a super 2 are pretty low. Let him and Stewart platoon at 3rd base the rest of the year.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/06/12/mark-melancon-rejoins-red-sox-as-rich-hill-goes-on-dl/#/2012/06/11/mark-prior-is-pitching-well-at-triple-a-for-the-red-sox/
Great to see him still trying to pitch.
@ mb21:
Yeah, he’s definitely as “good” as Stewart
Prior has 10 strikeouts in 4.2 innings.
@ Berselius:
So it takes $30 mil dollars to get Koyie HIll DFAed? (dying laughing)
@ mb21:
I am as serious as a heart attack when I say I really hope he makes a comeback. That guy was/is a once-in-a-lifetime talent.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I hope so too and on those two pitches I embedded it made me miss Prior in a Cubs uniform.
(dying laughing)
@ Berselius:
Yeah, it’s not saying much, but against lefties I think he could be decent. I don’t think you’d want him facing a righty.
The guy couldn’t tell she had plastic surgery? (dying laughing)
@ Berselius:
Wasn’t Stewart a high draft pick, too?
@ mb21:
That was a sick curveball/slider/whatever-the-fuck-that-was…
@ mb21:
I have many jokes but most of them are really racist so I will abstain… (dying laughing)
Prior looks to be in the best shape of his life.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I think he was a Rockies first-rounder.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
10th overall in 2003 and was the #4 prospect in baseball before the 2005 season.
Stewart went from being ranked 57th prior to 2004 to 4th, to 16, 46 and 38. Dude had tremendous potential.
Vlad Guerrero —-> possibly retired?
@ Rice Cube:
The last true Expo?
Dodgers ————-> 5/85 extension for a player who just turned thirty and has only averaged ~2.5 WAR per year over his career.
@ Berselius:
But he’s transformed
Given all the Rangers starting pitching woes right now, it sure would be nice to hear a whiff of interest from them in Dempster or Garza.
@ Berselius:
The Dodgers spend money like a drunken sailor.
@ Berselius:
Hometown antidiscount.
I love Taco Bell a whole lot more when I compare it to a paper bag filled with vomit.
$6.8M/Win, assuming he sustains 2.5 (optimistic).
Maybe Matt Kemp will only hit if he can rub Ethier’s head first or something.
@ Berselius:
…but it’s close.
@ Berselius:
Wow. Jaffe. That is a criminally stupid thing for him to say.
ITT: Dodgers interested in Dempster – http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/365222/baseball-headlines?r=1
Also, since my attendance has been hit or miss of late, is there some OVBlog cliffs notes so I know what opinion I should hold about the team/Soler/draft picks/other team developments? kthx.
@ Mish:
We don’t like anything.
@ Mish:
Rizzo will suck no matter how well he’s doing. Soler is guaranteed to be either a bust or too expensive. Josh Hamilton will never play here because he loves living too much. The Cubs suck. The Cubs suck (It bears repeating). Draft picks will all be mediocre.
@ Rice Cube:
What he said.
@ Mish:
@ josh:
(dying laughing) I don’t even know why there’s a blog anymore if we’re just swapping in new names in our old canards.
Mish wrote:
This describes every academic journal, ever.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Institutions of higher education: where ambition goes to be stolen, watered down, then squashed altogether.
@ Mish:
Personally, I think Rizzo will be good, but that it won’t matter.
@ Mish:
You missed this:
Is crime starting to slow down, Mish?
@ Berselius:
I like the Soriano deal a whole lot more if I compare it to the US debt.
@ josh:
I think he certainly has the potential to be a very good player. But there’s just so much that can happen between destroying AAA and consistently hitting MLB pitching that I am trying not to expect too much from him, too soon.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I agree. I figure I can get my hopes up about one dude. On the other hand, like I said, I think the upside is that he’s a good to decent player on a really shitty team, so it’s not like I’m expecting miracles.
@ josh:
Yeah, there’s that, too.
@ mb21:
The New DA has been doing wonders, and he doesn’t even wear a mask.
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/25518/clearing-the-bases-concerns-about-castro
@ WaLi:
It’s been a while, but I don’t believe that’s changed since I last saw the gif. Much like everything else. (dying laughing)
don’t say anything to anyone, but brett jackson is hitting .323/.359/.645 in his last 25 in the PCL. is his stock back to rising again?
(dying laughing)
Jaramillo ——-> fired
Deck chairs ——-> rearranged
@ Berselius22:
WORLD SERIES.
@ Mish:
it’s fine to criticize Castro for not walking, i guess. obviously OBP is a huge part of the offensive game.
but i wish there were more/better perspective on what Castro is doing. he’s 22. here is the all-time MLB list of players 21 and under sorted by WAR. it’s virtually a HOF media guide. most of the guys who are not in the Hall will be there eventually (Junior, Sherry Magee, ARod, Andruw, Paul Hines, Pudge Rodriguez, Miggy Cabrera) or were “mere” multiyear All-Stars (Cesar Cedeno, Vada Pinson, Stuffy McInnis, Jimmy Sheckard, Adrian Beltre, Cecil Travis, Buddy Bell, Edgar Renteria, Boog Powell, Gary Sheffield, Alan Trammell, Ruben Sierra, Rusty Staub, Phil Cavaretta, Eddie Yost) or brilliant early careers shortened (Buddy Lewis, Conigliaro, Fred Carroll, Reddy Mack, Kenny Hubbs).
there are “losers” on the list — Dick Hoblitzel, Butch Wynegar, Rick Manning, Bob Bailey, Claudell Washington, Whitey Witt, Jack O’Connor, Cass Micheals, Ed Kranepool, Sibby Sisti, Frankie Gustine — but relatively few, most of them were quite good players and some occasional all-stars.
the active kids on the list — Jason Heyward, Starlin, Elvis Andrus, Justin Upton — should obviously be watched closely.
as a bonus, you can sort the list by %BB — Castro is near the end, just trailing Robin Yount but ahead of Bill Mazeroski, Orlando Cepeda, Ty Cobb, Travis Jackson and Roberto Clemente.
EDIT: also excellent is to sort by BABIP: 1) Jimmie Foxx, 2) ARod, 3) Starlin, 4) Cecil Travis, 5) Rogers Hornsby, 6) Justin Upton, 7) Ted Williams, 8) Edgar Renteria, 9) Mickey Mantle, 10) Orlando Cepeda
Berselius22 wrote:
Theo does not like the Jaramillos.
Am I wrong when my brain tells me that Rudy Jaramillo’s offenses never walked much? Maybe change of hitting philosophy?
Maybe Sveum didn’t like him or something.
@ Berselius22:
i thought we were trying to accumulate impact talent, not get rid of it.
@ gaius marius:
He probably will never be a big OBP guy. There are successful player who aren’t. Sometimes a mix can add some excitement. I’d like to see him back to his average, in terms of walks, but I’m not sweating it.
Eh, half. It’s a sad state of affairs for your team indeed when the only player to be even marginally excited about is a AAA first baseman whose fate is likely to be at best Adam LaRoche Part Deux.
On the other hand, I’d like to be able to enjoy the possibilities of Rizzo being the next Joey Votto for a little bit without being reminded yet one more time he probably won’t be very good once he gets the call. I think we all understand the pitfalls with prospects around here. To quote the great Jerry Seinfeld, “it’s a gamble, I get it.”
Agreed.
How close to Pete Rose’s career hit record will Castro come? Discuss.
@ dylanj:
-6
as far as Rizzo goes we are Cubs fans so we are a jaded scarred lot. But I dont remember the last time we have had a 22 yr old destroying AAA the way Rizzo is. In my lifetime I’ve never seen a prospect do what he is doing. Thats reason enough to be excited.
Firing Jaramillo can only mean one thing:
Josh Hamilton —> Cubs
Pete Rose———–> Hall of Fame
Castro ————–> Marrying Pete Rose
Yount ————-> ?????
WORLD SERIES!!!
@ dylanj:
You actually follow the minor leagues. I’m willing to trust your judgement on this one. I’m excited to see Rizzo. I still think the team around him will blow for a few years, but maybe if he does well, it will inspire enough confidence in Theo to make some deals and build a team around him.
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/25504/crystal-ball-dempster-lands-in-detroit
WTF
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
FWIW the MLB season is actually called the championship season in the rules. So every team is as champion when you think about it. (dying laughing)
honestly the only two arguments ive seen here for why we shouldn’t be giddy for Rizzo is this
1. Other guys have also hit well in the PCL
2. 120 bat AB’s last year in SD
Neither of which are near the body of work he has created in his last year in AAA. I would be shocked if he wasn’t a 30 HR guy in the bigs. That Cashner trade seems pretty damn inspired if you ask me
i can top that JT- last week during the STARLIN DOESNT FOCUS! fiasco the Sox SB site was proposing getting Castro for Matt Barnes and Chris Carpenter. Because you know, they didn’t want to include their top prospects for him.
@ dylanj:
He will surpass 5000 hits by the time he’s 24.
I can see Starlin ending up with 3500 hundred hits or so if health stays with him. I’m still in awe of what Rose did though and I don’t see anybody catching up to that.
@ dylanj:
I haven’t seen anyone point to his MLB experiennce and for good reason. No one is saying YOU can’t be giddy. Just accept there’s still a better chance he fails than there is that he succeeds. Or don’t.
@ mb21:
I have learned something new today.
i haven’t seen a good argument as to why its more likely he fails at this point. For a guy like Almora or Baez who are just drafted or in low a sure. But for a young guy to be this good at the closest thing to MLB pitching to be more likely to fail at this point that succeed? I doubt it.
@ dylanj:
I think he could get to 2000 if he’s healthy and I say that while being ridiculously optimistic. So optimistic that I don’t see another player I’d put money on to get to that number who have less than 1000 right now.
for him to end up at 2000 he would have to be out of baseball at 29 or really really slow down his hit rate. Even if castro never becomes a superstar a middle infielder who can hit .300 will always have a job.
rizzo just slide into a wall trying to catch a pop out and left the game with a knee injury
@ dylanj:
YOU SEE WHAT YOU DID!??!?!?!?!?!?!
@ dylanj:
Well…fuck.
@ dylanj:
Look at the top 100s each year and look at only the players in AAA. Tell me the rate that those players became bench players, utility players, every day guys, good and really good. You’ll find most of them do nothing at the big league level or never even reach it. The next highest percentage will be those who are bench guys and then so on. It’s not easy to be good at Major League Baseball. Much more likely than not, Rizzo becomes a member of the group that isn’t good or really good.
It’s not about being jaded or being a Cubs fan. It’s about being realistic and understanding that even the best prospects fail. There’s also a reason people have come up with the AAAA term. It’s because some guys can kill AAA pitching, but aren’t good at the MLB level. I think it’s a bogus term and don’t like it, but it’s used by a lot of people and there are a lot of player that would fit into that group.
MO forgot to mention Josh Kroger, the player that only he remembers.
@ dylanj:
For him to end below 2000 he’d have to hurt his leg on a slide, takeout, running the bases, walking home at night, stepping out of the elevator, and so on. That’s enough to lower his BABIP (which will regress anyway) and the hits will stop piling up. Batting average is the least consistent stat year to year.
Tony Gwynn was one of the best “pure” hitters I’ve ever seen in my life. He didn’t get to 2000 hits until he was 33 years old and ended his career with just over 3100. One advantage Gwynn has is that he walked a lot more than Castro, but we should expect Castro’s walk rate to improve as it’s a skill that improves into the 40s. If he starts walking more he gets fewer hits. If he develops power like some thing he’ll be pitched around more and so on.
3500 is wildly optimistic.
However, Edgar Renteria ended his career with 2327 so I’m going to guess Castro hits exactly 2327 in his career.
@ Berselius22:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Hey, it worked for the Angels this year. The singular reason to fire Jaramillo is that he doesn’t teach the organizations philosophy. If that were the case, he should have been let go before the season began.
And Garry Templeton had 2096 and I’m not sure there have been two more similar players at similar ages in the minors and at the MLB level than Castro and Templeton.
@ dylanj:
for real!?!?!?!?! fuuuuuuuucccckkkkkk
@ Nate:
That’s pretty much right. Maybe they figured it wouldn’t hurt to let him ride out his contract, but they liked this other guy more or something. Or he took a shit in Dale Sveum’s coffee as a practical joke. That’ll get you fired like 8 times out of 10.
@ dylanj:
nowhere close, but i bet he gets to 3000 anyway.
@ gaius marius:
I can see 3000, but 3500 sounds like crazy talk to me.
3000 seems high too. Craig Biggio and Tony Gwynn didn’t top that by much and while Castro deserves to be compared to some greats for what he’s done so far, those guys stayed healthy and played a long time. We can’t expect the same from Castro.
Boggs barely cleared 3000 though he didn’t make his debut until he was 24. Still, it’s hard to get 3000 hits. Even if you already have 2000 hits, it’s damn hard to get the other 1000.
If Castro got to 3500 I’d assume he’d stay in baseball until he had 3515 hits so he pass Tris Speaker for 5th all time. Castro is good. He’s 22 and a whole lot of shit can happen between now and when he’s in his 40s.
What will Castro have to keep his BABIP at for the rest of his career to reach 3000? Can somebody with a spreadsheet figure that out please?
Also, I think we all hope Castro becomes more patient. That will cost him hits. I think we all want him to develop more power. That too will cost him hits as he’ll be pitched around more. To even think about 3500 Castro has to remain as he is right now. Healthy, low walk, low power, swings at about everything close, above average speed, high babip. If I knew he was going to do that and get 3500 hits I’d be thrilled. Go for it, but I hope he improves his walk rate, power, stops swinging so much and I know that player’s speed peaks in their early 20s.
@ Mucker:
I’m not sure you could figure it out unless we knew at what age he’d pass it and how many PA per season he would get in that amount of time. A general answer to your question is that his BABIP will have to remain where it is to get there.
That or he’ll have to play well into his 40s
Seriously, it’s staring us in the face.
OV Blog should have a major contest with an epic prize for guessing Castro’s career hit total. Sure, the blog will probably be dead by then but we can check the results on the Wayback Machine. MB21 will still be around so he can organize the prize delivery. If I win but I’m dead by then, give my prize to mish
@ dylanj:
dylanj wrote:
Soto as a catcher back in 2007 was 24 and killing the PCL. that was pretty exciting, but he was 24. i looked back to 1977 on baseball cube for something comparable to what Rizzo is doing, and there really isn’t anything.
Now, Pete Rose had 4000 hits or whatever, but weren’t like 1/3 of those him literally just punching someone?
Castro will have to average 171 hits for the next 15 years to get 3000. He’ll be 37.
@ Suburban kid:
In 20 years, people we be like “What’s an ‘Internet’ grandpa? Just shut up about it already!”
Suburban kid wrote:
mb21 wrote:
only because he’s started so young. your example of Gwynn is a good one, but he also didn’t get a full season in until his age 24 year. Starlin may have 800+ hits piled up before his age 24 year starts.
still, 3000 is a ton, i agree. even looking at his most-similar-through-21 comps on baseball reference, there’s a bunch of 2000-hit comps in the top ten but no 3000-hit guys. some great players and HOFers there too — garry templeton (2096), arky vaughn (HOF, 2103 with time out for ww2), dick bartell (2165, also out ww2), jim fregosi (1726), travis jackson (HOF, 1768 and done at age 32), vern stephens (1859 and done at 34), bobby doerr (HOF, 2042 out ww2 and done at 33), rogers hornsby (HOF, 2930)
mb21 wrote:
yeah, you have to want him to be as gwynn or kirby puckett were, more or less — very few walks, very few Ks, keep BABIP near .350 for as long as you can.
Byrd was released. He never came back to full form after the face injury, or that’s the storyline I keep imagining, anyway.
Apparently Theo said Jaramillo was shitcanned because the team needed “a new voice and a focus on the mental side of hitting.” He also noted the team OBP of the Cubs has dropped in 5 straight years. (dying laughing)
I very much enjoyed the last OBB, by the way. Can’t hate Soriano.
@ Rice Cube:
I had a physics professor who always used Star Wars figures to demonstrate physics problems. It’s just a gimmick, though. It’s not like we were calculating the thrust of Boba Fett’s jet pack, it was really just a weight-on-a-string problem. I always thought that was lame-oh.
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
So they had to let him start the season? Why not shitcan him before hand?
@ josh:
Did he ever do the monkey falling out of a tree demonstration?
@ WaLi:
I surmised that they wanted to see what Rudy could do first, although they had a couple years’ worth of data with Lou and Quade to look at.
@ Rice Cube:
I guess they needed someone to be a scapegoat midway through the season.
@ WaLi:
That could actually be it.
From Carrie Muskat:
Score quoting Theo as saying Rizzo’s knee is structurally sound, but they are running further tests.
@ WaLi:
I would hope one of the beat guys asked that question.
gaius marius wrote:
24 year old catchers doing what he did was awfully damn impressive. We talked about it at the time, but the list of catchers doing what he did at that age was small. And the list of players it included were greats.
@ gaius marius:
The comparison between Castro and Templeton is amazing in my opinion. Bryan Smith looked at Castro before he reached the big leagues and the player he was most comparable to (identical!) in the minors was Templeton. Their MLB stats through their first two seasons were remarkably similar. Renteria was another guy Smith talked about it and it’s a good comparison at this point too. I know Templeton had somewhat of a down 3rd season in the big leagues, but was pretty good the next few. It’s going to be interesting to look at that comp after 5 years of big league time. I’m betting they’re still similar. If there is a difference it’s going to be after that. In other words, Castro will maintain what Templeton couldn’t. I’m still not betting money on that because I just think it’s too damn hard to be that good at baseball. There are so many things that can go wrong. An insignificant knee injury can hamper a player for a few years and maybe longer. A more significant one can change the player entirely. Getting hit on the wrist. Being taken out during a DP. Getting hit in the head by a pitch. The list goes on and on and on.
Gwynn, Biggio and the other guys who reached 3000 went through all that and stayed healthy. I just don’t believe it’s reasonable to expect the same from someone. Even if he’s as good as Castro is as at that age.
BTW, I’d have said the same thing about ARod at this age too. Sometimes I’ll be wrong, but most of the time I’m going to be right because baseball is a cruel game. Sports are cruel in general. To stay at the top of the game like the greats have is so ridiculously difficult that I can safely say there’s only one player I ever though had a chance to be an all-time great within the first few years of his career: Barry Bonds. The list begins and ends there and he’s arguably the greatest position player off all-time. Ruth edges him out since he also pitched early on, but in terms of batting, there’s little difference between the two. Early in Bonds career I was taking the over on just about any milestone. There’s no comparable player to him that I’ve seen in my life.
@ Suburban kid:
(dying laughing)
Castro is probably not going to develop OBP skill, but he will develop power. That could change his hit rate, both in a change in approach and how he is pitched
gaius marius wrote:
Right now, Rizzo is carrying a 1.143 OPS. Hoffpauir carried a 1.145 OPS over 313 PA in 2008, but he was 28. In 2009, a 26 YO Jake Fox carried a 1.338 (!!!!) OPS over 194 PA. In 2006, a 22 YO Howie Kendrick OPS’d 1.039. In 2005, a 22 YO Rickie Weeks OPS’d 1.090. In 2004, a 23 YO Dallas McPherson OPS’d 1.049. 2001, a 24 YO Torii Hunter OPs’d 1.130. In 1999, the immortal Roosevelt Brown (23 YO at the time) OPS’d 1.114. A 23 YO Jeremy Giambi OPS’d 1.103 in 1998. In 1997, a 22 YO Mark Bellhorn OPS’d 1.037 and a 22 YO Paul Konerko OPS’d 1.028. and in 1995, a 19 YEAR OLD A-Rod OPS’d 1.057. I could go on, but there’s plenty of precedent in PCL history for what Rizzo is doing, and to my mind, what A-Rod did in 1995 is far more impressive, because he did it at 19 years of age and while playing a premium defensive position.
Just one more. 1994, Billy Ashley OPS’d 1.129 in 453 PCL PA. He was 23 years old. He was a two-time PCL MVP, and 3-time Dodgers Minor League PoY. In 1995, he carried a 1.022 OPS until being called up. He carried a .716 MLB OPS in 688 career PA, and was out of baseball by 2001.
There is also an extensive list of players who didn’t OPS over 1.000 in the PCL, who became very good players. Hope. Monster.
“What more can be said about Rizzo? ”
Well now you can say he’s injured…
Thanks dj
srbutch5 wrote:
DJ, you need to start talking shit about Brett Jackson and Javier Baez. I bet they’ve been hanging out in PJ Franceson’s puppy mill.
I believe he meant 22 year olds doing what Rizzo is doing. All of the people listed are a solid .100 points below Rizzo or 4+ years older.
Also he did it in Alberquerque Which makes te rest of the PCL look like Petco. And his k rate was crazy even in those 93/94 seasons.
And if we’re playing the ‘extensive list of guys that didn’t OPS 1.000 and became good’ game then why bother even mentioning the minors. Certainly we shouldn’t be pessimistic on Vitters for that very reason.
@ Doogolas:
I think you need to read the list again.
2001, Torii Hunter, 24, .013 less than Rizzo
1999, Roosevelt Brown, 23, .029 less than Rizzo.
1994, Billy Ashley, 23, .015 less than Rizzo
That’s three, and I only went back to 1994. Rizzo’ been incredible. That much is undeniable, and his performance is very encouraging for the future of this franchise. But his performance is not without precedent, and it’s still not as impressive as what A-Rod did.
Look, I know eliding and strawmen are fun, but be perfectly clear: I AM NOT SAYING RIZZO WILL BUST.
To repeat, for the hard of reasoning: I. Am. Not. Saying. Rizzo. Will. Bust.
I’m simply saying that what he is doing isn’t so earthshaking that we should pencil the guy into the lineup for the next 10 years. He’s having a fantastic season, but let’s not pretend that it’s anything more than that.
@ srbutch5:
True. But that’s irrelevant to the points being made about Rizzo.
i thought Roosevelt Brown was going to be the man as a kid. Him and Tyler Houston
I don’t know where I strawman’d anything. And I don’t know what eliding is. But the point was more: If you can’t get excited a about what Rizzo is doing, then is there anything to ever get excited about with a minor leaguer?
@ Doogolas:
I am excited about Rizzo, but very guardedly so.
@ dylanj:
Oh, man, I was totally in the bag for Tyler Houston. And Ty Griffin. I thought Ty Griffin was going to be the second coming of Bo Jackson. (dying laughing)
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Oh. Fair enough. I think that’s fair then. I just got the impression that everyone is kind of ‘It means nothing because it’s in the PCL.’ line of thinking. And in this case ‘everyone’ is like 3 people but still.
@ Doogolas:
I think it would be foolish to say it means nothing because the league is hitter-friendly, but the hitter-friendliness of the league in which he’s doing this should be taken into account. I’m just trying to balance my excitement with acknowledgement that (1) this is a good young hitter shredding a league that a lot of very good young hitters have shredded and (2) that many more hot young prospects fail than succeed.
But this kid is most definitely an incredible talent and I’m anxious to see him play in the bigs.
i love castro
bubblesdachimp wrote:
You’ve just been suspended from the blog for 5 games
PSU knew about Sandusky’s sexual abuse and did nothing. Thankfully they kept a secret file chronicling their moral bankruptcy: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504083_162-57451567-504083/penn-state-officials-kept-secret-file-on-sandusky-allegations-says-attorney-general/
Ye gods.
I’m still not sure what to think about Castro’s lack of walks. I have an inveterate distaste for his lack of patience, but he makes so much contact that it’s hard to say “stop swinging the bat.” For now I’m going to say that I want him to be more selective, and if that means more walks and fewer hits, then I’m comfortable with that.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Why the fuck would you ever hold on to something like that?
@ GBTS:
That’s like your buddy sending you child pornography via G-mail, and then just transferring it to your “Important Stuff” folder.
@ GBTS:
No idea. Plus, the grand jury asked for it, and it just got turned over today during the criminal trial. I still think this jury is stacked for a mistrial at the least, but these idiots have given the feds enough to bury them for good.
Actually, I know exactly why you hold on to it. Because when you need to fire Sandusky and make him a scapegoat, should any of this have gotten out before he retired, that file is a helluva way to insulate yourself from a wrongful termination suit, as well as to keep Sandusky from singing to the feds.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
They should’ve terminated him rightly just after reporting him to the cops.
@ josh:
…and the 2 that don’t get fired are Don Zimmer and Lance Parrish for Kirk Gibson.
@ GBTS:
To give Mish something to do, apparently.
Welcome back Mish. Oh yeah, you missed me coming up with some excellent ways to beat the luxury tax, and sign Josh Hamilton, if only the CBA and luxury tax worked the way I wanted them too, and not how they really do. Facepalm for Skip. (dying laughing)
Preview up
http://www.obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-detroit-tigers-28-32-at-chicago-cubs-20-40.html
@ Doogolas:
Stats matter no matter where they happen. Some splits matter (left, right, day night, home road, maybe a couple others). Context is what is important. Context includes playing time. Rizzo has been awesome at AAA, but it’s still only one season. How many players have we seen have a really good season only to not be so good after that (Soto, Rich Hill, Patterson, the list goes on and on). Context includes a lot of others things that just aren’t worth getting into (at least I don’t care enough to).
Rizzo is having a great first half of the season and when combined with his half season of AAA last year it’s an excellent full season (nearly full season anyway). But it’s one season. And it’s at AAA. Yes, he’s 22 and what he’s doing is impressive, but being a 22 YO first baseman simply isn’t as impressive as being a 22 year old SS or even a CF who is 23 and probably not even a catcher who is 24. Context!
Rizzo is more than likely going to be valuable at the big league level. That’s true just because he’s cost-controlled, but a great player? More than likely not. Is average good enough for you people because it sure as hell is for me. I’ll be thrilled to get league average or slightly above league average production for league minimum. I’ll call it a huge win for the Cubs and won’t complain one bit. It’s also probably what the Cubs get from Rizzo so I am excited. I’m just not 500 home runs excited as it seems some others are.
josh wrote:
i always found that incredibly patronizing and really fucking annoying. you aren’t making this class any more interesting by incorporating some vaguely relevant reference. also, and i realize this is a generalization, but the star wars geeks that would get off on that probably have some baseline interest in physics anyway and don’t need to be pandered to.
@ GBTS:
everyone knows that you immediately move it to a folder labeled “this is not child porn”