Brett Jackson had a Brett Jackson kind of game going 1-4 with a BB and two strike outs & a stolen base. Dave Sappelt was 3-4 and has turned his season around after a really poor start.
Smokies
SUSP
Ronald Torreyes hit 2-5 with a double and a pair of RBI's. 2012 pick Tim Saunders who is being groomed for a super utility role got 3 hits in 4 AB's. AJ Morris earned another save striking out two in 1 IP.
Javier Baez went 2-4 and struck out twice. Michael Jensen struck out 6 in 5 while allowing 2 ER.
Jeimer Candelario had a nice game as he went 3-4 with 3 RBI's after hitting a double off the wall. Dan Vogelbach hit his first HR as a Boise Hawk and is batting .346 since his promotion. Marco Hernandez hit a towering shot to RF his 3rd of the season.
Albert Almora was removed with a groin injury after 1 AB last night. Ben Carhart was 2-3 with a pair of walks. Carhart is a 2012 pick who should move up to a more age appropriate level. So far he is sporting a .392/.479/.532 line.
Do we have any sense of where the Cubs system ranks now? Overall, it seems to have been a pretty spectacular year for our prospects: the emergence of Vitters, the MLB success of Rizzo, the addition of Soler (and Almora), and the early-career successes of Baez, Candelario, and others…. all augmented by the crop of prospects just brought in via trade.
On the downside, there doesn’t seem to be much going on except the continued slide of a couple pitching prospects and the explosion of BJack’s K numbers. (I guess there’s a bit of bias here, in that anyone we don’t know about is “failing” as an MLB prospect.)
All things considered, would it be reasonable to say the Cubs have one of the most improved farm systems over the course of the 2012 season?
@ shawndgoldman:
I suspect the Cubs minor league pitching depth has gone from pathetic to merely bad in the past month or so
@ Berselius:
IMPROVEMENT!
shawndgoldman wrote:
Fixed
i would say we are a top ten system hitting wise and dead last in pitching.
Volstad is on his way up
@ Berselius:
So, that improves the farm team a little right there. *rimshot*
I think we’ve crept into the top 10 unless Vitters and Jackson both graduate. Our position prospects are probably top 5 in the MLB, but pitching is in the bottom 10. It’s getting better but McNutt and Maples were supposed to be the headliners.
Still, I think Maples, Underwood, and Vizcaino has TORP upside. Johnson and Blackburn are 3ish upside. Then we have a plethora of 4s, 5s, and RPs.
overall i see us anywhere from 12-20. Just a total lack of pitching.
@ Berselius:
Oh goody.
Someone mentioned yesterday that it was said the Cubs pay none of Dempster’s salary while they pay all of Soto’s, which made it a virtual wash. That’s not true. Soto was making under $5 million and had about $1.5 million remaining on his contract. Dempster had $5.3 million.
you know with the Cubs having a ton of money off after this year and next and not really planning on getting involved in FA and not able to spend much on amateur talent anymore Ricketts will be making a shit ton of profit. He should use that to help sweeten the Wrigley rebuild deal with the city.
aside: http://www.obstructedview.net/aside/cubs-acquired-2-of-top-10-prospects-moved-at-the-deadline.html
@ dylanj:
He should just pay for it, but I doubt that happens and I doubt he sweetens the deal either. Too bad though.
basically it will be Castro, Russell and Garza headed to arb. Imagine if we trade Soriano and Garza. Our payroll will be like 25 million bucks (dying laughing)
They have to come up with something in the next 3 years are that place is going to fall apart in 5. Surely, they can come up with something.
@ dylanj:
I’d assume the Cubs would be paying at least $12 million next year and the year after for Soriano, but you’re right. The payroll is going to be low and that doesn’t excite me.
A neat new addition to Fangraphs leaderboards:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/leaderboard-filters/
honestly though, MLB wont be happy with a flagship franchise having a 50 million dollar payroll. Something will have to give.
Baseball America had the cubs as the 14th best farm system in baseball entering the system. I agree with DJ that they’re pitching is terrible, but I think they’re offensive prospects are damn good. Jackson takes a bit of a hit, Rizzo is gone, but Baez takes a big step forward, so does Vitters, they pick up Soler and Almora. I think they’ll be somewhere between 9-12, but it depends on other teams too.
i mean this team is shit and the Cubs still draw crowds or at least sell tickets- the money is still there. We are looking at what could be the lowest payroll in baseball next season. And we can’t use the damn savings to hurry up the farm! Something will have to give.
dylanj wrote:
Neither will Cubs fans. It might seem fun to open the season, but when the team is on pace to lose 90+ games they’re going to be pissed they’ve turned into the Royals. I know I will be. I love the idea of a rebuild, but it doesn’t mean you can’t acquire free agent talent.
mb21 wrote:
I agree, they are pitching is terrible. Also, the pitching that belongs to them is terrible.
/count
//loser
@ mb21:
Surely they plan to spend. Picking up a few big free agents could help them build the farm system with future trades, right? Buy up a free agent, trade him for 2-3 top prospects after a year or so. I mean, that’s really the only way to spend money on the farm system anymore. I’m curious to see what happens.
i think an extension for Castro will happen this off season or they trade him as well. F7 could get one too. They will be under pressure to make some signs that they are interested in being competitive.
Well, the spending would almost have to come from the Pitching side right?
1B – Rizzo 2B – Barney SS – Castro 3B- ? Vitters ?
OF – BJax, DeJesus, Soriano, LaHair
They would have to make room for a bat outside of third base. Hopefully they get another Maholm to fall into their lap that they can flip at the deadline.
KG’s midseason top 50:
15. Javier Baez, SS, Cubs (Preseason #66)
24. Jorge Soler, OF, Cubs
Mb, didn’t you say a while ago that a top prospect was worth like $15M to whoever has him? If that’s the case, what’s to stop the Cubs just buying some from other teams? Surely the Royals or Rays could use the bucks in exchange for one of their zillion top prospects.
Zack Greinke if the Angels don’t resign him?
BubbaBiscuit wrote:
@ fang2415:
That sounds like a “cash consideration” type of transaction but with that much cash wouldn’t it have to be approved by the commissioner? I’m sure the poor teams are probably getting enough revenue sharing as well and know that they can just keep their guys for minimum wage for a while so they don’t actually need the money…
@ fang2415:
I’m sure such transactions could be done, but the prospect is far more valuable to the Royals than $15 million. The prospect, if he’s good enough, could become league average or better and provide way more value than that and there’s really very little they could do with $15 million in cash.
So I ended up being correct on the poll question with the answer of “4″ Cubs traded. What do I win?
@ Rice Cube:
Bonus with Greinke is that because the Angels traded for him in the season, the team that signs him as a FA won’t have to cough up a draftp ick
@ WaLi:
We don’t burn down your house
I think the Cubs will be looking for Maholm/DeJesus types, but will certainly be in on any of the big name guys on the market. They’ll still have money to spend, and those guys could still be useful once the talent wave arrives in 2015 or so. It would be interesting to see what next year’s team could do if it actually had anyone that could pitch other than Samardzija and Garza. I’m probably just overrating the entire Cubs offense though (dying laughing)
@ Berselius:
Fair enough (dying laughing)
@ Berselius:
I think the team that signs him will still lose a 1st rd pick or 2nd if 1st is protected, but the Angels would not get any compensation pick for him.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
edited for reading comprehension fail
What if the Cubs resign Garza to an arbitration deal, and then trade him in the offseason, eating all of his salary? That could be a way to “spend” money on the farm system.
It’s a little ambiguous, at least as it’s written at MLBTR. If a player hasn’t played for the team all season, they’re not eligible for compensation, but it sounds like they can still make a qualifying offer if they want. I don’t see the point of the Angels doing so though, since all it would do is piss off any future players they might have in the same situation.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/08/01/shocker-public-dollars-given-to-a-baseball-team-are-being-used-in-a-suspicious-manner/
Shenanigans!
Outside of Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, and Josh Hamilton, I don’t see any position players for the Cubs to throw money at this off-season. On the pitching front, Liriano, Carmona, and Brandon McCarthy will be interesting potential investments
The Cubs FO is discussing whether to bring up Vitters and BJax this month. Sveum says if they do come up they’ll be everyday players. I guess that means we’ll see some sort of Soriano-heavy timeshare in LF with LaHair. Crazy to think that he hit his way into the ASG and looks so shitty now.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
I don’t think the Cubs really need to invest much in position players right now, pitching is clearly the need. At least for the next year or so the Cubs lineup *should* be filled by guys who are at least credible true talent level wise. The bigger problem is the pitching “depth” of Coleman, Volstad, Germano, Wells, etc. behind Garza and Samardzija
@ Berselius:
But making the qualifying offer to a player who isn’t eligible for compensation won’t penalize the team that ultimately signs him…right?
@ Rice Cube:
I think it still would, but the player’s old team wouldn’t get the comp pick. If the Angels offer Greinke a qualifying offer all they have to gain is the off chance that Greinke *really* wants to come back for one year at a big salary.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
They should just sign a deal with McCarthy for his twitter account (dying laughing)
@ Edwin:
That’s basically what I was saying get a bunch of 2-3 year contracts and trade for prospects. Part of that is dependent on performance, but it’s a way to convert FA spending to prospects. Not fool proof, but the Cubs have lots of budgetary flexibility to do it.
So if the Cubs are on the hook for Sori’s $18 mil, whatever Garza gets in arb and a possible Castro extension, what’s an educated guess the Cubs will have to spend via F.A.?
@ Berselius:
Do you recall if this was explicitly stated in the MLBTR article? It seems kind of lame to penalize the new signing team if the player isn’t even eligible for compensation.
@ Mucker:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/08/01/ryan-dempster-says-he-never-turned-down-that-deal-to-the-braves-um-ok/
@ Mucker:
Depends on how many tickets you buy. If the Cubs lose next year, it’s on you.
That should be the new slogan: It’s On You!
@ Mish:
I actually believe him. I think the Braves realized they had put too much on the table. That’s not really Demp’s fault. How could he know the Braves would get cold feet?
I don’t really buy the analysis of what Demp said. People say shit when they’re speaking live, it’s unedited. You can’t put much stock into filler phrases like “truth of the matter.”
@ Mish:
The comments were funny.
Gerardo Concepcion ————> mono
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Draft Pick Compensation
1. Starting in 2012, “Type A” and “Type B” free agents and the use of the Elias ranking
system will be eliminated.
2. The current system of draft pick compensation will be replaced with the following
system:
A. Only Players who have been with their Clubs for the entire season will be subject
to compensation.
B. A free agent will be subject to compensation if his former Club offers him a
guaranteed one-year contract with a salary equal to the average salary of the
125-highest paid Players from the prior season. The offer must be made at the
end of the five-day free agent “quiet period,” and the Player will have seven days
to accept the offer.
C. A Club that signs a player subject to compensation will forfeit its first round
selection, unless it selects in the top 10, in which case it will forfeit its secondhighest selection in the draft.
D. The Player’s former Club will receive a selection at the end of the first round
beginning after the last regularly scheduled selection in the round. The former
Clubs will select based on reverse order of winning percentage from the prior
championship season.
TL;DR – Players on the team less than 1 season are not tied to any loss of pick when signed as a Free Agent. Greinke is free to sign anywhere after the season, Angels have no leverage over other teams.
@ berselius22:
WTF. Was he rooming with Hayden Simpson?
Here’s the MLBTR blurbs:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/05/qualifying-offers-for-free-agents.html
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/the-new-draft-pick-compensation-system.html
I guess it is true that the team can still make a qualifying offer, but at that point, since Greinke was traded and the team is no longer eligible for compensation, it just becomes an offer and not one that carries the risk of pick forfeiture. That’s how I’m interpreting it and I don’t see why if the Cubs signed Greinke they’d lose a draft pick while the Angels gain nothing.
I really thought he was still tied to a pick for someone other than the Angels to sign even if the Angels would not get a pick back for him. But that is not the case, makes it seem extra risky for the Angels.
As far as I can tell, compensation goes “poof” as soon as an impending free agent is traded, and then they can sign wherever they want without draft picks changing hands or disappearing. This is the first I’ve heard of some loophole that would penalize a team for signing a free agent not tied to compensation. But I’m not good at legalese, so I could be wrong.
@ Rice Cube:
Yes, the compensation as well as the signing team’s penalty go poof. We knew the compensation did, but (I was) unsure on the penalty side, but digging into the new CBA cleared that up.
@ berselius22:
(dying laughing)
So what are peoples thoughts on the qulifying offer?
I think Demps turns it down
@ bubblesdachimp:
That’s Texas’s problem now.
“That’s skeery sometahms.” -Zonk.
@ josh:
I didnt think they would get a pick since he wasnt with them all year???
Also Baez with a single in first and Geiger with his 12th homer
@ bubblesdachimp:
Sounds like the pick stuff is all forfeit now with guys like Demp. It won’t effect the Cubs. The Rangers gain or lose nothing offering him $12M, if I’m reading the previous comments correctly. The Cubs could theoretically sign him without penalty, but who knows if they even want to.
Castro just broke up the no-hitter, the shut-out, and the perfect game.
He is going to hit 25 in a season one day
That power is coming on
Saw Mike Zunino play last night. He can hit, but he looks terrible behind the plate.
I think what the Cubs got back was probably equal to or better than the comp pick potentially would’ve been anyway so all is well.
@ Rice Cube:
Yes, they definitely got better than a 35th-40th overall pick would be for Dempster without risking him accepting the $13m for one year offer.
Nice to see Dempster trotting out Al’s “officially official” line of reasoning.
I’m going to watch EUG-VAN (short-season A affiliates for SDP and TOR, respectively) on Saturday. Anyone I should watch for on either squad?
Marte is strong.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Ryno’s #3 2b prospect from a few years ago might be bouncing around that league
would you ask Tom Petty that question? Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
@ Berselius:
Sadly I missed Boise when they came through last month and they won’t be back.
I never thought Dempster actually said no to the trade. As far as I know, not one person reported he had declined the trade by saying no. His taking more time than the Braves wanted essentially ended the trade so the best one can say in my opinion is that his indecision was the same as saying no.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Toronto: Dalton Pompey OF & Short Shortstop Jorge Flores
San Diego: OF Yair Lopez & Brian Adams
@ mb21:
He was blindsided into a state of shock, he was speechless.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/08/qualifying-offers-will-be-worth-13mm-plus.html
$13.4MM according to this article is how much the qualifying offers will have to be.
@ mb21:
So… doesn’t that just mean that he’s worth more than $15M to whoever has him? So the Cubs could just pay whatever he is worth? Isn’t that how a market works?
I guess if prospects have infinite value to whoever drafts them, then there’s nothing the Cubs can do, but otherwise it seems like there must be a way to work around their problem of having too much money and no prospects to spend it on…
paulina gretzky has #99 tattooed right above her vag
@ fang2415:
The Royals, Pirates, Rays and other small market teams can’t contend by investing that $15 million in the free agent market. They’re best shot is to keep their best prospects and hope they work out at which point they’re worth a lot more than that. It’s why these teams often aren’t even involved in serious trade talks. They wouldn’t trade those prospects for what they’re worth and they won’t sell them either. Those teams have to collect the prospects.
@ mb21:
Yeah, but unless there was a hard and fast deadline on the table, it’s not like Demp could know that taking 24 hours to think would kill the deal. I think it’s unfair to Dempster to put it all on him.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
Looks like Pompey and Adams are on the DL, and Lopez has been sent back to rookie ball. Damn. Thanks, though.
@ fang2415:
It’s not that prospects have infinite value, it’s that money itself has been devalued, because there’s nothing to spend it on, in terms of building a team.
@ josh:
I can’t imagine that the commissioner would allow a team to straight up sell top prospects. What’s to stop a team from intentionally hanging low in the standings so they can draft players and sell them for a profit. No way. I bet even one deal like that would get turned down.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Well then, enjoy the hot dogs and beer?
mb21 wrote:
He was on Waddle & Silvy this morning and he said exactly that. He wanted more time (presumably so that they could go to the Dodgers and see if they would up their offer) and when all hell broke loose, Atlanta was left with their ass out in the breeze and pulled the offer citing time parameters.
Who knows? that whole time thing could have been bullshit that they threw in so they didn’t have to say they were backing out after seeing every analyst talking about how shocked they are to see Dempster getting a prospect like whats-his-face back.
@ All
Yes, a straight up cash sale of a prospect would piss off lots of people and make a certain Mr. Boras extremely too damn happy. I can’t see that being allowed at all.
@ mb21:
Well, Royals maybe, but the Pirates and Rays are bubble teams now, and might be able to use the services of a $15M free agent next year.
Bottom line is if a price can truly be put on prospects, then that amount of money should be able to buy the prospect. The Cubs have a shitload of money so they should be able to buy those prospects for that amount.
If money can’t buy the prospects, then the prospects do have infinite monetary value; in which case the Cubs won’t be able to buy them.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
(dying laughing), pretty much
@ josh:
Yeah, that’s certainly possible. Maybe they could throw in a useless player to make it seem more legit.
Would be funny if someone tried though.
@ josh:
Agreed. I don’t put any of it on Dempster no matter how the decision was made. Players bargained for the ability to let some players make these decisions so that’s how it is. These things happen. I don’t have a problem saying he vetoed it though, because he essentially did even if he didn’t say it. That doesn’t mean what he said is dishonest and yeah, I agree with you about “truth of the matter.” When half these players say “um” every other word I wouldn’t try to analyze what they’re saying. Apparently Soriano actually did veto a trade and that’s no big deal.
I don’t see why we should take what Dempster says with any less a grain of salt than we’ll take whatever THoyer finally say. Dempster has just as much incentive to lie and spin this in his favor as the team does.
@ fang2415:
The other problem, besides there not being a chance in hell this would ever be approved, is that WAR estimates are more for free agent contract amounts and trade value estimates. A team selling a prospect would need to value that prospect at the price that it would take to replace the prospect, which is impossible. So the value is effectively infinite. Even if the Royals agreed to it, though, it wouldn’t matter, because MLB isn’t going to let teams sell off prospects.
Bobby Abreu ———-> DFA
@ fang2415:
The only way I could see it being appealing to a team like the Royals would be in the off-season so they could make a bid at a free agent. Maybe some kind of convoluted deal like that would be approved, but I doubt it because of the can of worms it opens.
@ mb21:
Soriano didn’t veto a trade. The team told him that SF and LAD were both interested and Soriano told them he would veto a trade to SF. That’s the key difference here. Dempster let the trade negotiations get deep after ostensibly giving both sides some indication he wasn’t going to veto the deal. Because Dempster also said that the team kept him abreast of the negotiations. So this stuff about needing time and being surprised is a bunch hogwash, IMO.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
He preemptively vetoed. He pretoed.
KG on Castro: A 70 bat w/ 50 power. Special.
fang2415 wrote:
A prospect is more valuable to teams who require the years of club control at a limited price than they are to teams that can afford to spend money on free agents. The value of prospects isn’t the same for every team just as teams who are contenders will pay more per win on the free agent market than teams who aren’t.
If I’m a GM, I’m probably not selling a prospect for any reasonable amount of cash. That would do nothing to improve my organization at the moment, which is what I care most about. Do you think the Cubs would trade Starlin Castro for $50 million? That’s probably more than he’ll provide in surplus value the rest of his career. Would they trade him for 3 blue chip prospects (roughly $15-20 million in value)? Absolutely.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/breaking/chi-epstein-defends-dempster-on-atlanta-trade-fiasco-20120801,0,4673128.story
Really good story. More and more it seems like Dempster took a shit on theo and jed.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Other reports that GW pointed out yesterday said he did veto the trade.
@ mb21:
It probably doesn’t matter whether he pretoed or vetoed. Point is he didn’t want to go to the Giants, so it didn’t happen. Hendry created a culture where players could and were encouraged to stay long past their usefulness. I can see why he did it, but it makes it hard to do a real firesale like the current FO would like. Still, I thought they did okay given the materials they had to work with.
@ josh:
@ mb21:
Yeah, I guess the thing here is that the $15M that a prospect is worth isn’t the same as the $15M a FA is worth. (dying laughing)
The Cubs have gone from suck to blow.
Would it be silly for the Cubs to put a waiver claim on cliff lee?
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
@ bubblesdachimp:
I think it would be silly. No way they are letting Lee go to anyone who picks up the contract, so it will be waiver wire for trade purposes only. In those cases, it is an unwritten rule that only teams that intend to trade for the player make a claim or teams in direct competition for playoff spots with probable suitors make a claim to block that trade possibility.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
Aren’t there waivers you can pull back and waivers you can’t? If the Cubs thought it would improve their team, then I’m fine with it, but it seems pointless.
@ josh:
Improve long-term, that is. I guess technically they’d be better.
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
Which, correct me if I’m wrong, was kind of the goal of 2012…was it not?
Yes, revocable and non-revocable waivers. Good breakdown here: http://www.purplerow.com/2009/2/19/762532/mlb-transactions-part-thre
I think they would honestly let anyone who would take all that salary have him
@ bubblesdachimp:
If that was the case, I honestly think he would be a Ranger or a Dodger today or hell, even an Oriole.
Have to wonder how Cole Hamels feels with all the trades and speculation on the Phillies.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
Rangers wanted like 50 million supposedly
Our MVP is not being very MVPish.
@ josh:
He was the First Half MVP. You can’t take that away from him.
josh wrote:
fixed
Dear Keith: Please stop saying everything is “brilliant.” It’s reduces the effectiveness of the word, and your pronunciation is extremely annoying.
Wow.
@ josh:
I can’t stand the way every pitch is “upstairs” or “downstairs”; never high or low.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Looks MVPish to me, we have the Astros and Rockies to catch.
Cabrera’s slider looks pretty nasty
@ Suburban kid:
Yeah, all right, that’s dead on.
I cant get over how nasty Cabreras sinker was
There’s that 9th inning rally we’ve been missing.
9th inning rally? Okay.
There be new shit up it seems