Iowa got a good test today as perhaps the best pitcher in the minors in Shelby Miller faced them. Miller shut the Cubs down but only lasted 5 innings. Lets see how our top guys fared vs a legit future star
Brett Jackson- BB, 2 K's
Anthony Rizzo – 1-3
Josh Vitters – 1-2
Travis Wood had a good outing striking out 8 in 6 IP while allowing 1 ER.
Jae-Hoon Ha went 3-5 with a pair of doubles & Dae Eun Rhee was terrible in the start.
Hayden Simpson ranged anywhere from 84-89 with the fastball tonight although he was almost always around 86. He struck out the first batter and then pretty much fell apart. He fell behind hitters and with that kind of velocity when he tried to come back on 2-0 counts he got crushed. The trainers went out once to check on him then left, the announcers sounded pretty frustrated and basically this couldn't be more of a train wreck. At this point its hard to see this guy in baseball after this year unless he is recovering from a surgery. Its sad.
Szzrzrzr continues to heat up going 2-3 with a pair of walks.
All hail Kyle(r) Burke. The 24 yr old had a good start throwing 6 shutout innings while striking out 4. Granted at 24 he is now the creepy dude who the prospects probably use to buy beer for them but we will take what we can get. Ben Wells followed and allowed 2 ER in 3 innings while getting his usual amount of groundouts. Paul Holiman hit his first HR of the year and Wes Darvil was 1-3 with 2 BB and 2 SB. The big news is that Concepcion makes his big debut tomorrow night.
In other news, berselius has informed us that Cubs playoff tickets go on sale in 2025. I'm assuming the virtual waiting room opens tomorrow. Don't miss it.
Very sorry to hear that Hayden Simpson is sucking so bad. I really wanted him to not suck.
@ Rice Cube:
You can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometimes you just might find you get what you need.
I’m surprised Shelby Miller wasn’t put in the rotation once Carpenter went down.
@ mb21:
I can’t get no satisfaction.
it was tough listening to the Simpson game. The kid just has nothing right now. No control, velocity nothing.
@ Rice Cube:
It’s ruby Tuesday, bitch.
@ mb21:
Where are all the honky tonk women?
@ Rice Cube:
they need a non-threatening environment
Hell of a game in Oakland by Tom Milone, or as I like to say it, Tommy Millonny.
@ GW:
We’ve been meaning to start a thread for women only, but keep forgetting. It doesn’t matter anyway. They’ll be busy cooking us dinner.
So I see JefF7 has retransformed. I expect no less than two breathlessly handwringing posts about this on Fangraphs tomorrow.
Oh what the hell, I used the embed button on Soriano’s game winner and it didn’t work.
@ GBTS:
MLB consumer service values your input and seeks to remedy your problem immediately. We recommend you upgrade to MLB.tv 3.2.6.5 for a minimal bi-annual fee of $123.00. This upgrade grants you partial access to MLB’s archival footage of all day games prior to 1997 and after 1996, as well as quasi-improved functionality on your MLB.tv broadcasts (subject to blackout restrictions and actual availability and existence of said upgrades), as well as the ability to sync audio broadcast on your radio and your computer. In lieu of your acceptance, please accept these cassette tapes of the the Monday, Aug. 10, 1992 Cubs vs. Expos matchup broadcast from the famed Expos radio team Dave Van Horn and Ron Reusch as a gift for your troubles.
P.S. the tape requires a $13.99 processing fee.
P.P.S. We’re also going to need $5.00. Just because.
Marmol has a really odd line right now (ERA/FIP/xFIP): 5.06/3.49/5.75
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-proprietary-information-disappearing/
(dying laughing): http://obb.joshuallen.com/2012/04/22/hope-monster-springs-eternal/
@ Rice Cube:
You’ve probably never heard of me, but I’m the under assistant west coast promotion man.
I heard the Cubs
wonlostwon last night?Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
I expect mb not to make a post about him since he pitched well.
Hoilman’s HR was a walk-off grand slam, by the way.
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
I’ll be the first to start the #jeff7org trend on Twitter.
@ Suburban kid:
Verily
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I bet his SIERA is looking great
Carl Crawford ———–> visiting James Andrews
The embed button pops up for about half a second and then disappears…wonder if it’s hidden somewhere in the source code. Anyway, evidence of transformation:
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20895863&c_id=mlb
jtsunami wrote:
Why would I? I already wrote about how he is a better pitcher. It would just be redundant to keep writing the same post.
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah, for older videos the embed button is there, but not for the new ones.
Let’s see if this works:
Nope.
@ mb21:
Fail.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/04/25/pedro-gomez-embodies-the-intellectual-dishonesty-of-the-anti-peds-bloc-of-the-hall-of-fame-electorate/
Could this be possible….
LaHair——–>Better than average at hitting baseballs?
@ srbutch5:
He’s probably the best hitter on the roster right now.
@ Mish:
This.
Also this comment on the article
@ Berselius:
He and Starling are the only two hitters that I enjoy watching at this point. It makes the Cubs experience a nightly chore since they only come up every 3rd inning…(dying laughing)
/Letting it happen to me
@ srbutch5:
Those are the only two I enjoy watching too. Campana is fun to watch when he manages to get on base. And I’m one of the rapidly dwindling Cubs fans who has relatively high hopes for Ian Stewart and Geo.
Berselius wrote:
So in other words, probably not.
Brian LaHair has the 4th best wOBA in baseball (50 PAs minimum).
@ Mish:
#7 first baseman of all time.
/Cameron’d
@ Mish:
I feel like this is something that one could use to punch holes in a supposed journalist’s integrity.
And one of you Twitter people should trend that #pedrogomezneverdenied thing.
@ srbutch5:
Here’s LaHair’s MLE’s, based on his MiLB numbers in the PCL, where he had the majority of his MiLB AB and put up his best numbers (2405 AB): .247/.305/.421
Here’s his MLE based on his best MiLB season (2011): .273/.345/.520
Based on what we’ve seen so far, I suspect the latter is closer to LaHair’s true talent level. But we’ve got a very limited sample to this point. Still, I’m pleasantly surprised by him.
@ Berselius:
I still think Soto can get it turned around. Stewart, OTOH, is dirty and mediocre. (dying laughing)
Today’s lineup vs RHP Lance Lynn
RF DeJesus
CF Campana
SS Castro
1B LaHair
LF Soriano
3B Stewart
C Clevenger ———-> Cubs sweep
2B Barney
P Volstad
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Stewart had decent numbers before last year’s injury-lost season. Granted, a lot of it was in CO but I think he could still be a useful player. I’d only put his ceiling around just above league avg though.
@ Berselius:
I was going to second-guess Sveum’s lineup, but I didn’t spend an afternoon crunching numbers with Phil Rogers. Instead I was pondering whether the Cubs should sign Paul Byrd to be their Big Time Slugger.
@ Berselius:
He only posted an above-average OPS+ once, and he had less than 300 AB that year. He’s not posted an average OPS+ in any other season.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Now that LaHair has been moved up in the lineup I don’t really have a beef with his “regular” lineup. Someone less shitty should be batting second, but when you look at the Cubs hitters after DeJesus, Castro, and LaHair it’s pretty much just rearranging deckchairs.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Is OPS+ park or position adjusted? I can never remember. He posted several 1.5ish WAR seasons with the Rockies. Even if he has taken a step back he’s still the best 3b in the org (dying laughing)
Evan Longoria takes Halloween seriously.
@ Berselius:
Yeah, I pretty much agree. I just wanted to take a shot at Rogers. (dying laughing)
http://blogs.riverfronttimes.com/dailyrft/2011/10/dan_mclaughlin_wet_pants_dwi.php
@ Berselius:
OPS+ is park and league adjusted.
@ Berselius:
If Campana is just going to bunt every time DeJesus gets to second base he should be batting 8th or 9th.
Somehow my birthday party video made it online.
@ Rice Cube:
He’s have a pretty hard time moving DeJesus over from second if he’s batting 8th
@ Berselius:
He’d have a better chance if he wasn’t bunting shittily.
Rice Cube wrote:
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Well yeah, that too.
Mish wrote:
not objectively hot
I don’t get the Campana hate. He has played in 4 games, has 4 SB with no CS. He is getting on base (at the moment). Let him play while he is still hitting. I can understand batting him 2nd because you don’t want to “clog the bases” in front of him. If a Soto or LaHair was in front of him (or anyone for that matter), you eliminate 90% of his game.
Plus, he is fun to watch.
I think Campana can become a great 4th OF. I’m all for him starting every day until Jackson gets called up.
@ WaLi:
I don’t hate him. I don’t get bunting him with a runner on 2nd, unless he’s bunting for a hit. Still, it seems like he should be an amazing bunter, just to give himself that option at all times if the defense doesn’t respect his speed, but he doesn’t seem to be all that effective a bunter. (I don’t hate bunts if done well.)
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
I don’t know, Evan seems to have a lot of desirable qualities, physically speaking.
@ josh:
I guess when I saw that play I was thinking he was bunting to get a hit, not just to move DeJesus over. I agree that he needs to be a better bunter though.
@ WaLi:
Yeah, I don’t care if Campana plays either. At least when he’s on base it’s actually something I’m going to pay attention to.
I’m not a fan of Stewart. He’s been worth 3 fWAR and 1.9 rWAR in his career. I’m guessing he becomes the team’s Jeff Baker next season. Not any good, but still on the roster for some reason.
@ WaLi:
The fact that he bunted at that one that was way outside and that DeJesus started running makes me think it was something Sveum called from the dugout. Plus it was the second attempt in a row, which means there was no element of surprise.
@ WaLi:
I think he fouled off a bunt before he completely missed the bunt on the second pitch to hang DeJesus out to dry. He shouldn’t have been bunting in that situation, he should have been trying to get the ball to the right side any way he could. It looked like he was trying to knock the ball down the 3B line though.
So I’m trying to defer my enrollment into this MBA program. It says “Degree: ___________” and “Major: _______”
What do you think I put there? I have a BSME from my first college, but I imgagine they want what I’m going to be doing.
Would degree be “Master’s” and Major be “Business Administration” ?
An example of how the game has changed and why pitchers should no longer be batting.
In my opinion, the change should have been made around 1900. It became clear that pitchers could no longer spend the time needed to hit baseballs and had become so bad that fans should have begun throwing fits that they had to watch them bat.
So…a negative OPS+ is bad, I take it.
@ Rice Cube:
(dying laughing) It appears we’ve actually reached the point at which they can no longer get worse.
At least, for another shining moment, NL > AL (dying laughing)
The thing that really pisses me off about pitchers batting is that there was a brief time when they weren’t horrible. Early on they were probably as good at batting as a shortstop or catcher. Obviously those positions demand a lot of attention defensively that doesn’t allow them to spend as much time working on their hitting. The game has changed.
Ask yourself this question: if MLB was being invented today and they knew that pitchers would have little to no time batting and would therefore be horrible, would they force the pitcher to bat? Of course not. You’d probably go with an 8-man lineup.
Since going to an 8-man lineup will never happen because oh my god, all those records will be broken because players get more chances to hit, they should at least use the DH. When you’re at the point where the average position player is better at pitching than the average pitcher is at hitting, it’s time to make a change.
http://deadspin.com/5904996/?utm_campaign=socialflow_deadspin_facebook&utm_source=deadspin_facebook&utm_medium=socialflow
The poor dog in the picture seems like he has the “I hate humans” look on his face.
@ Rice Cube:
I think some of that is that pitchers bat more in the NL, but some of it is also that NL pitchers lay down more sac bunts that occasionally leads to a base hit.
It’s kind of funny that the AL adopted the DH first when they had the better hitting pitchers.
If baseball insists the pitcher bats then I want the average pitcher to have an OPS+ of at least 70. They can pay the pitchers a lot more money because they’ll have to spend time working on their hitting and pitching.
@ mb21:
I’ve said this before, but if the opposing manager, both sets of announcers in both the radio and TV booths, the crowd and the pitcher himself knows that he’s an automatic out, then maybe they shouldn’t have him bat at all.
@ Rice Cube:
What’s even funnier is that the NL still hasn’t done it.
I will also say that I think the DH is an abomination but I concede that I would prefer someone in that spot who can actually do more than shittybunt.
What would happen if shortstops got worse and worse at hitting? Let’s say it starts this year and by 2050 they have an average OPS+ of 40. Do you think baseball will stand by and allow this to happen or do you think they’ll find shortstops who can hit the fucking baseball?
@ mb21:
I don’t think that would ever happen, but I think they invent a “designated fielder” position then (dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
When I was a kid I didn’t like the DH, but I think I was taught that early on. As I got older I didn’t like it, but I didn’t dislike it as much. I don’t really care at this point. I’d rather go with an 8-man lineup than use the DH, but that’s never going to happen. Because of that the obvious decision is to use the DH. It also creates offense and fans love offense. The reality though is that this is just a different game when they started it. There’s no reason whatsoever to think the same rules must still apply. The game has evolved into the game we love today. The NL will have the DH at some point. It’s inevitable so why not just do it now?
@ Rice Cube:
It wouldn’t happen because at some point they would just get people who can hit and can stand at SS. They would much rather say fuck defense than allow them to get so bad at hitting. It’s just mindboggling to me that 1) the league has allowed pitchers to get so bad at hitting and 2) the league hasn’t made any adjustments. The AL did so they deserve some credit.
@ mb21:
Probably for the same reason people don’t want a Jumbotron at Wrigley Field.
I know it’ll happen eventually. I think most people deep down realize it too. They just want to stave it off as long as possible to preserve the last bit of “purity” in the game. Part of it is the whole “a real baseball player plays both sides of the ball” mantra.
I agree with your other post, if a pitcher is going to have to hit, I want him to be respectable at it and not be an auto-bunt or auto-out.
@ mb21:
I think a lot of the managers and owners etc. just don’t care enough to sacrifice pitching ability to increase offensive ability. That’s why I said that when the pitcher is up, pretty much everyone in the park knows he’s going to be an out, including the pitcher himself, but nobody really cares because that’s just the way it is.
I don’t think it should be the way it is. I want a pitcher who can put the fear of God into the opposing pitcher when he steps up to the plate. Too bad that won’t happen anytime soon. Heck, AL managers keep complaining that their guys have to run the bases and potentially get injured that way.
@ WaLi:
I would put the degree as MBA and the major as Business Administration, unless the program has certain specialties they make you choose on admission, or something.
@ josh:
@ WaLi:
I agree with Josh. MBA distinguishes between MS, MA, MFA, etc. Then Bus Adm, unless its an MBA in Marketing or something else.
I’m guessing back when pitchers were better hitters there were two major differences 1) pitchers sometimes played defense at another position when they weren’t pitching, so they got regular at-bats (didn’t Ruth do this, or am I crazy?), 2) they probably weren’t as good at pitching, or at least didn’t throw as hard. There sort of is an arms race between hitters and pitchers, to where as hitters got better and better, pitchers had to focus more time on pitching to keep up. The best hitters are often not that great at fielding, because they don’t spend as much time on it. Ted Williams caught flak his entire career for not being that great on defense. But how can you force the balance except by doing something like forcing hitters to sit 3 days a week or something so they don’t get as good. I don’t know how you handicap the system from where it is so that players focus on the total game. But really, there are only a few hitters that do that. And there are a few guys who are very good at defense and not so great at hitting. Most guys are in the middle somewhere.
The only thing I can think of is a pitching machine, one that can throw 3-4 different kinds of pitches. The manager sits in there and calls the pitch to the machine. Eliminate the pitcher entirely.
Figured it was worth mentioning that while he may have not had the best day ever yesterday, Campana’s first bunt was excellent, Molina just made a perfect play, which he had to, to barely get him out at first. Campana laying down a bunt always has a decent chance of being a hit as long as it’s fair anywhere. When he put a bunt in play last year I think he got on base like 40+% of the time. Small sample, but I think he actually is a good bunter and he should do it a lot just because there’s always a decent chance he gets a hit.
And if he gets a hit, he’s basically on second.
I don’t know cricket real well, but can’t you like bat in any order per inning?
That would be awesome, in terms of strategy. Let’s say you can only bat once per inning, but the order doesn’t have to be predetermined. Then you have the element of strategy where you’d usually want to save your pitcher to be the final batter of the inning, if you go through all 8 other players, but you also have to consider that if you get to the ninth hitter that inning, you’ve had a good inning and probably will have runners on.
This way, we always see the best batters, but there’s still an element of strategy. Maybe you hold your Sluggers back until you runners on, or maybe you go ahead and put them up quickly to try to score quick runs.
mb21 wrote:
I don’t understand this graph. Is the y axis Percent? So in the early days, pitchers still only got 60-80% of League OPS+? Then how do you get negative instead of just zero?
Here are some other things to think about:
If baseball did a better job developing pitchers, so that difference between the excellent ones and average ones was less, then other parts of their game could be taken into account, such as defense and hitting. A return to the 4-man rotation might help.
Already, I think this is happening somewhat for relievers. The “Save” has devalued relievers so much that they are even more interchangeable now than they were before. Do you think Micah Owings and Brooks Keischnick (F7) would last/have lasted on ML rosters as long as they have if they couldn’t hit? If Zambrano weren’t such a wildcard with his mouth, he’d be able to have a very long career in the pen because he could hit too.
On the other hand, maybe in the next 40 years, as urban kids gravitate more to basketball, and rural kids to football, and suburban kids to soccer, and the worldwide draft holds down investment in Latin America, the quality of all pitchers will equal out to a lower standard, and hitters too, making a .203 wOBA not so far below league. (Hope not.)
Also, I’d be curious as to what that graph would look like if it was OPS+ of pitcher’s spot in the lineup vs league, taking into account the results of pinch hitters.
Hey Josh,
What are the guys doing in the last panel of the Joe Mather Hope Monster strip?
@ SkipVB:
maybe this was covered yesterday and I didn’t wade through the comments to check.
Nick Collins ——-> released by Packers. Well that sucks. Must have been an especially nasty concussion. Judging from the Packers “defense” last year without him that’s a huge hole to fill.
Yeah, your mom will ignore all the cursing because of that!
(dying laughing)
From: Bruce Miles
Well, for a day game after a day off or another day game, you could get up a little earlier. Making 6-8 figures a year, you might could give it a try.
/grouchy
Home field advantage! Woot!
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/04/25/wrigley-field-scoreboard-has-opponents-a-bit-miffed/
I thought the relievers were mostly facing away from the board though. I guess they don’t like seeing ads reflected in their bullpen catcher’s helmet.
SkipVB wrote:
OPS+ is confusing. Here’s the formula IIRC: OPS+ = 100 * (OBP/lgOBP* + SLG/lgSLG* – 1). Basically, it’s (OBP+) + (SLG+) – 100. Average is not always 100.
I’m too lazy to look the formula up, but I’m pretty sure that’s it. It’s not meant to be exact, but is often close enough.
josh wrote:
The biggest difference is that pitchers weren’t supposed to do anything other than serve the ball up to the hitter so he could put the ball in play. It was an entirely different game than we see today. This just isn’t the same game that was played when pitchers were decent hitters. Baseball’s reluctance to change rules as the game changed and the fans desire for rules to remain the same even though they were watching an entirely different game has, in my opinion, led to the pitcher still batting in the NL. There is no way the pitcher would be batting if the game was invented as it is today. If they were, the pitchers would be making significantly more money than they do as they would be forced to be good hitters. If we started baseball today knowing pitchers can’t hit for shit, there would be 8 guys in the lineup. I’d much rather go to 8 than use the DH.
@ SkipVB:
Tap dancing.
Drawing action is difficult.
@ SkipVB:
They’re holding canes. The fat dude made his cane with his Old Style can.
@ josh:
Worst. Cartoonist. Ever.
@ mb21:
Gotcha. Thanks.
Wonder why they creators of OPS+ didn’t just divide by 2 instead of subtract 1. That’s what we would do for Importance Values in ecology, which is a similar formula.
@ josh:
@ josh:
My first guess was dancing. I figured out the beer can. But then my crass side kicked in, or Mish was mind-melding with me, not sure which. Stick figures do allow a lot of viewer creativity in interpretation. (dying laughing)
@ josh:
No way. I like your cartoon. Makes me laugh.
Those were some good Cubs at-bats I recently enjoyed. Must translate them into runs next inning.
Volstad’s sinker is sinking and the umpire appears to be giving him the low part of the zone.
Tons of ground balls so far. No strikeouts other than the opposing pitcher though, and that was on a bad bunt attempt.
42 strikes, 17 balls. Sounds like he’s doing ok.
LaHair of the dog that bit him last night
So, this Lahair guy.
@ Nate:
He’s doing fine, but some of those are gonna sneak through as they did just before the Cards scored their run. Need more swing and miss, lots of fouls and contact so far but I’m guessing that’s part of the game plan anyway.
@ Rice Cube:
I noticed there was very little swing and miss. Give up enough grounders, a few of them get eyes. As long as he’s getting GB, he’s ok though I guess.
where do the Cardinals get all these funny looking players?
@ Nate:
Yup…he won’t keep them to one run forever though. Cubs need to score before the 9th inning this time.
@ Nate:
Missoura?
http://praiseball.wordpress.com/2012/02/09/what-is-stupidity-and-which-writers-flaunt-it/
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Brad has a good sense of humor
Volstad’s only two K’s are by Lance Lynn.
@ Rice Cube:
Indeed.
len just mentioned colin by name and read a tweet of his
Alright they need to get Barney in
@ SkipVB:
I spent a lot of time trying to make sure they didn’t look like penises. I guess I should have spent more time on it.
Campana doesn’t really have the bat speed to make contact against good velocity.
I know Campana doesn’t want to pigeonhole himself, but he REALLY needs to learn to bunt. That would have been the perfect spot to push a run acorss.
Nuts. That was not a ground ball.
Beltran gave that ball a ride
So there goes that. Should have scored more when they had a chance.
@ Nate:
Don’t panic yet. Mather hasn’t hit.
@ josh:
The hope will consume us all.
This is how I feel about Bryan LaHair right now.
@ josh:
So this is how the 81-yr old Fred Astaire managed to woo and marry the 36 yr old Robyn Smith? Or is that a cane?
@ SkipVB:
I say it’s both.
@ Mish:
His BABIP is .545 according to fangraphs. He’s been the best thing about the season so far, for sure.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
(dying laughing)
@ josh:
Well played. Probably saves us from a Knockitoff from MO too.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
That equation implies that Sabermetrics is the input and statistics and such are the output.
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
nice link. i was looking at some other posts on there and found this:
Yo’ saberist is so lame, he lives in his father’s basement.
another one:
Yo’ saberist is so dumb, he thinks pitchers have literally zero control over balls in play.
might have to start checking that site on a regular basis because that shit is gold.
Michael Pineda’s 2012 ——–> done like dinner.
http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/7855551/new-york-yankees-michael-pineda-2012-shoulder-injury
Exhibit A as to why I, as a GM, would never trade a premium young bat for a young arm.
I hope someone is tracking this:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/04/25/go-dbacks/
Paul Konerko –> 400 HR
Smokestack Lightning wrote:
Good luck coming back from a labrum tear.
new post up
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I wish they updated that site more frequently. I hadn’t seen Brad’s piece on “what is sabermetrics.” He does basically say it’s anything related to baseball. This comment is sabermetrics.
I liked that the guy on Praiseball mentioned Bill James definition. Nothing could be more simple. It needs no other explanation.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7853268/ex-mlbpa-diector-marvin-miller-players-salaries-more-justifiable-ceo-pay