Last year was the final time that the Cubs could really flex their financial advantage on the IFA market. After missing on Yoenis Cespedes (who is incredible), the Cubs hit on two of the big-ticket Latin American players. The first was Gerardo Concepcion, who is pretty much a non-prospect at this point. The other is Jorge Soler, who looks like he could be a very good player. Soler signed a 9-year, 30 million dollar deal that will pay him through 2020 (though he can opt out and go to arbitration when that starts). The Cubs never pay him more than 4 million in a single year, and his last year years will be age 26, 27, and 28. That's what a nice IFA contract looks like.
Offense
Soler doesn't have a great batting stance, from what I've seen. He's sort of straight up, and his swing seems really hard on his lower back. That being said, he's got prototypical power from RF. He could hit 25-30 HR as long as his hit tool progresses like it should. He didn't strike out that much and walked well enough for the lower levels. His bat speed (it's great) should allow him to make decent contact, and hopefully he won't strike out a ton. Soler has pretty good speed so he should be able to maintain a higher-than-average BABIP and provide some value on the basepaths. He likes to steal bases (12/1 last year in 149 PA and 35 chances), so look for that to be a part of his game in the future as well.
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | Aff | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | TB | GDP | HBP | SH | SF | IBB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 20 | 2 Teams | 2 Lgs | A-Rk | CHC | 34 | 149 | 134 | 28 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 19 | .299 | .369 | .463 | .832 | 62 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2012 | 20 | Cubs | ARIZ | Rk | CHC | 14 | 61 | 54 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 13 | .241 | .328 | .389 | .717 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2012 | 20 | Peoria | MIDW | A | CHC | 20 | 88 | 80 | 14 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 6 | .338 | .398 | .513 | .910 | 41 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 1 Season | 34 | 149 | 134 | 28 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 19 | .299 | .369 | .463 | .832 | 62 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |||||
Defense
Some scouts say that Soler's arm is his best tool. He has a consensus cannon from RF, and the speed to play the position very well. Soler should be a plus defender in the big leagues; however, I wonder why he isn't tried out at CF (probably because he doesn't have plus speed). Scouts also say he has poor routes; I expect that to be fixed by the minor league coaching.
Summary
Soler is very, very raw. He didn't have much competition in Cuba, and the level of competition he faced is maybe comparable to Low-A. He's going to work through the minors as slowly as a normal high-school prospect. He'll need to learn how to hit good pitches, and he'll probably have to clean up his stance a little bit. On the plus side, he's got plenty of tools in the toolbox. He's got legit plus power and a plus arm. He's got more than enough speed to be a great RF and the bat speed to be competitive in the majors. There is significant risk to Jorge Soler, but the upside is huge.
I wonder if the Cubs entertain the idea of Soler moving to CF at some point. I’m sure it depends on what happens with Brett Jackson and Matt Szczur, but it might be a decent idea at some point.
Does Almora play CF?
@ GBTS:
Yes, but he’s about 35 years away from MLB. Besides, if Soler can play CF, he’s more valuable. It’s something the Cubs can figure out later on, but it’s kind of surprising to me that someone with his speed and defensive skills isn’t playing CF at such a low level.
@ dmick89:
Oh yeah, not saying they shouldn’t move him to CF based on Almora, but I thought they had spent all their time together on the same Arizona team.
At the end of the season Almora was sent to Boise and Soler to Peoria.
@ dmick89:
Okay, I just Google image searched “i was wrong gif” and like the 15th result was a picture of two guys having anal sex. WTF.
@ GBTS:
Was the file name notthattheresanythingwrongwiththat.jpg?
@ GBTS:
Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
@ Suburban kid:
DAMN YOU SK!
@ GBTS:
Doggystyle?
Hey SK–
You know that just because the pope is retiring because of advanced age, you don’t have to follow suit, right?
Things that get old:
SK
Thing that don’t get old:
Making fun of SK’s age.
@ Mish:
@ SVB:
You guys really ought to get out less.
@ Suburban kid:
(dying laughing)
Mish: Wow, looks like you’ve got a shitton of problems these days. If you need help, call Josh, the Hope Monster can take Joker. Even Joker has hope.
Geez Mish: Not only Joker, but this too ?
@ SVB:
Man…fuck those fucking sites.
http://www.facebook.com/TheOfficialSammySosa/posts/441223055948334
Sammy (or his people) seem to have a good sense of humor about the jokes about his yellow sweater.
Apparently I’ve had a busy day. Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to go search for alien milf porn on my Blackberry.
Mish, didn’t anyone tell you there’s no holder in soccer?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2013_swimsuit/painting/kate-upton/13_kate-upton_2.html
I think I see… a nipple!
Michael Bourn ——> Indians (per Heyman)
4/$48M for Bourn with vesting option that could make it 5/60M. Again per Heyman
@ Aisle424:
You are going to infect our tablets and smart phones with viruses.
@ SVB:
Wait… what?
@ Aisle424:
See the link in comment 15. Geez, don’t you read every word? (dying laughing)
On another topic, from MLBTR on Felix Hernandez.
How do get protective language? If Felix doesn’t pitch so many innings in a certain year, can the Mar’s opt out?
@ SVB:
Might be a series of vesting options or some insurance clauses in there.
Nothing gets me excited about baseball like vesting options and insurance clauses.
Oh man. I come to OV this morning and almost threw up. There was a damn ad that contained a “Cardinals Valentine Angel” telling me to buy tickets.
The hope monster is obviously disgusted. I thought the ad people knew not to put porn ads or Cardinal ads?
Kate Upton is just ridonculous.
@ Aisle424:
If the Cubs did something like the Indians did I would be happy. They signed Swisher costing them their Second round pick (1st was protected). Then they signed Bourn which only cost their 3rd round pick. If they were to sign any other free agents that would cost a pick, they wouldn’t lose anymore, right?
I know the picks aren’t worth all that much and are a crapshoot, but may as well get the most bang for your buck.
For that special MILF in your life…..
http://www.vladtv.com/blog/154376/pizza-hut-introduces-perfume-that-smells-like-pizza
What kind of deranged chick would want to smell like Pizza Hut?
@ dmick89:
Either this guys wife:
Or
a stoner’sMIsh’s girlfriend.@ WaLi:
WTF? Did Aisley’s new dog get into the Dominos?
WaLi wrote:
fixed
@ WaLi:
I think Kyle Lohse is the only one left, and if they signed him that’s the third round pick that comes after the competitive balance pick. The Cards have to get something as compensation since Lohse is tied to a QO.
With Knox gone, you Bears fans should watch some film on Texas’ Marquise Goodwin and WVU’s Stedman Bailey.
@ Ryno:
What round you thinking those guys go in? If they are available in the 5th or 6th, I see the Bears maybe drafting a speedy WR but they have more pressing needs and only have 5 picks (no 3rd or 7th) this year to get some impact talent and depth.
@ Ryno:
Don’t tell me what to do.
@ Bears Fans:
So there’s just one of you?
@ Mucker:
As of now, a third would probably work for both. So make that trade with SF (dying laughing).
If not, maybe sign one of Brad Jones, Philip Wheeler or Dannel Ellerbe and Andy Levitre or Louis Vasquez. Then they can go into the draft looking at a guy like Ertz in the first, Long in the second and then maybe trade up for another LB.
Rice Cube wrote:
The way I understand it, Swisher cost the Indians their 2nd round pick and Bourn cost their 3rd. Any other FA pickups after that wouldn’t cost a pick, so the Cards would just get a pick from nowhere and if the Indians sign Lohse they get him for just the cost of the contract.
@ WaLi:
When the Indians signed Bourn, they had to give Atlanta the competitive balance pick they received in the lottery which was sandwiched between the second and third rounds. They should still have their third rounder. I’m not sure where in the CBA you read that the Cards would receive nothing if the Indians signed Lohse at this point, but the third round pick is still in play so that might be moot.
Also the Nats were rumored to be in on Lohse as insurance in case Gio gets busted for PEDs. So there’s that.
Rice Cube wrote:
I wasn’t saying the Cards would receive nothing, I was just saying they wouldn’t get a pick from the Indians because I thought you could only lose two picks. Not sure why I thought that though.
@ Rice Cube:
That would be absurd if the Nats got Lohse. That would likely push Dan Haren out of their starting rotation.
IF you like Star Wars, I recommend checking out wired.com today.
@ Ryno:
I’d love an offseason of Ellerbe, Levitre and resign Melton and then recoup that 3rd rounder so we could draft Goodwin. 4.26 speed? That’s insane.
@ Mucker:
Those moves, plus drafting Ertz, Long and maybe a Kiko Alonso, and you’re all set.
Goodwin’s burst might be the best in college football, but he’s also pretty physical for his size.
Zambrano —-> saving face?
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/02/12/carlos-zambrano-could-head-to-japan-or-taiwan/
No way Bears go WR. They will address the OL, LB, and TE unless those positions are filled by trade/FA. Maybe WR late, but no way they do that with a early pick.
@ JonKneeV:
I agree but I also think that this year’s free agency is very critical to the Bears. If they have a solid F.A. and fill 2 of 3 from OL, TE, LB then they have the luxury of going BPA during the draft. The Bears need a fast WR that can stretch the field and occupy those safeties so Marshall can go 1 on 1 so I think a 3rd or 4th rounder on a speed WR is a very solid pick. That gives them the first 2 rounds to go with whatever they didn’t get in F. A.
@ JonKneeV:
Well, that is what we’re saying. Add a G and a LB in free agency, trade your 1 for SF’s 1 and 3, then draft TE, T, WR, LB.
@ Mucker:
I saw that the Bears were kicking the tires on Jermichael Finley
@ Berselius:
Really? I wouldn’t think the Bears would do that considering the entire team seems to hate him and he hates the Bears. But money and winning change a lot of things. What’s your take on him? I always thought he was a mismatch nightmare for teams but he never really seemed to take his game to that next level. Was it the offense not going his way much or was it him?
@ Berselius:
That would make a lot of sense for them.
@ Mucker:
I’m not really sure what to make of him. He looked like the next big thing ~3 years ago, then injured his knee. When he got back, he had some problems with drops and suddenly found himself as almost an afterthought in one of the greatest passing offenses of all time. I’m not really concerned about the drops, but his relative lack of involvement is weird.
@ Ryno:
I think Finley depends on Trestman’s system. I don’t know how TE friendly his offenses are so maybe a blocking TE is more important than a pass catching TE. Personally, I’d rather the Bears do whatever they can to strengthen that line and a good blocking TE is more important than a pass catching TE. Maybe B can elaborate on Finely’s blocking but he seemed more like the pass catching TE than a blocking TE. But it all depends on the offense they use. And like B said, he wasn’t much of a factor in the Packers offense.
That being said, I’d love to have Finley. (dying laughing)
@ Mucker:
To be fair, he was much better than I remembered in 2011 (8 TDs, 750+ yards), and put up a decent yardage this year too (667). But only 2 TDs. I feel like I remember rumors that Rodgers had lost confidence in him over the drops.
@ Mucker:
Finley isn’t much of a blocker, but he’s good enough for a traditional WCO.
Also we don’t know what direction the Bears are going with the defense. They will probably stick with a 4-3 scheme, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they started transitioning into a 3-4 by taking a NT if there’s a good one available with their 1st or 2nd pick. This is a pretty deep draft for DL. I think Paea and Melton could play 3-4 DEs and McClellin could play OLB in that scheme and Briggs could play ILB. There would be too many holes to fill for that this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this next year or the following year.
@ JonKneeV:
I liked Paea as a NT out of the draft. Has he not shown the strength for that in Chicago?
Melton would be fine at 5-tech.
Seems like you’d be a 5-tech and OLB away.
@ Ryno:
He’s strong like an ox, but he’s not big like a Raji or Wilfork. Idk, I might be wrong.
@ JonKneeV:
Well I know he’s bigger than Jay Ratliff. I thought he was strong enough to anchor a 2-gap 3-4, but I haven’t seen much of him since he’s been drafted.
He’s listed as 6’1 300 lbs. 3-4 NT should be huge. I would say at least 330 lbs and tall enough to see into the backfield. I think Paea is a bit undersized for that position.
@ Mucker:
Actually, he should be short enough to gain leverage against interior OL. Anything over 6’2″ is typically too tall, IMO.
3-4 NT are typically huge because they have to be the strongest guys on the field. Paea seems strong enough to occupy two blockers.
@ Ryno:
I always assumed every position on the D Line should be tall so they could disrupt a QBs field of view. But that definitely makes sense about the leverage. I always thought Ted Washington was kind of the prototypical NT of this era and he was what……6’5 360 lbs? I always thought of 3-4 NT as humongous dudes who’s sole responsibility was to occupy as many blockers as they could.
@ Mucker:
Vince Wilfork is about 6’2″ 330. I think he’s about as good as it gets at NT.
In a 2-gap 3-4, the NT is responsible for the A gaps. These are hard to find, but they allow a lot of felixibility for the rest of the DL.
In a 1-gap 3-4, the NT usually takes on the C and the strong-side G.
And if you need a 5-tech, JaMarcus Russell is pushing 310 right now. Great size for a 3-4 DE.
PECOTA ————-> predicting 77 wins for the Cubs this year
Ryno wrote:
(dying laughing)
Agree on Wilfork. He’s a beast.
@ Mucker:
Wilfork would be my ideal NT. JJ Watt is about as close to a perfect 5-technique that I can remember. Richard Seymour and Justin Smith are/were good ones too.
I miss Tommie Harris’ 2005 hamstrings.
@ Ryno:
What’s your opinion on Aldon Smith? Is he a star or does he just get recognition for sacks? I feel like Clay Matthews does so much in addition to pressuring the QB.
@ JonKneeV:
Matthews is not good in coverage, but for the most part that’s not his role on the defense. He’s pretty good against the run IIRC.
Interesting scenario here by Sahadev Sharma on BN:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/02/12/on-the-unlikely-but-plausible-2013-major-league-debut-of-javier-baez/
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
@ JonKneeV:
And who he thinks the Bears should draft in the first round, since everyone else’s opinion is in the last 30 comments.
xkcd has a steroids comic this morning:
@ WaLi:
(dying laughing)
@ JonKneeV:
I really like Aldon Smith, but he’s definitely overrated because of the sacks. He shouldn’t have been “in the running” for DPOY.
That said, he’s still one of the top 5 edge defenders in football (34OLB or 43DE), which is scary because he’s still learning some pass-rushing moves and how to set the edge against the run.
He’s currently listed at 6’4″ 260, but he’s really a power rusher. In his prime, I can see him closer to 275. This is what he does:
His shoulder injury, fatigue in his first full season and Justin Smith’s injury are responsible for the dip in his production.
I won’t post the gifs of what he did against Carimi because that’s not fair (dying laughing). Also, he gave us this sack celebration:
I don’t know where it came from, but there’s this myth that 34OLBs have to be good in coverage. The primary role of this position is to disrupt the QB in pass plays and keep contain in the run game.
They have to be able to drop and cover, but we’re talking about maybe 20-25 percent of the time. And I don’t know any current 34OLB that’s much more than a liability in coverage. If you’re OK with Clay Matthews or DeMarcus Ware on Vernon Davis or Jason Witten more than a handful of times per game, you’re going to get burned.
The main reason they have to be able to cover is to disguise the rush.
OV: All Football, All The Time
Are there certain types of CB’s that work better in a 3-4 defense instead of a 4-3? It seems like in the Cover 2/Tampa 2 the Bears ran, they wanted cornerbacks who were more physical, and played well in zone. There seemed to be less emphasise on findinging a shut down speed corner, and less man coverage.
@ Myles:
I warned you…
@ Myles:
These types of threads speak volumes of how exciting the Cubs are these days.
I totally wouldn’t mind seeing some GIFs of Aldon Smith on Carimi.
@ Edwin:
Because the Cover 2 is based on two-deep safety zone coverage, the CBs don’t have to be able to play man well. Their job is to press and cover a zone in the flat. So the CBs you usually see in a Cover 2 are bigger and more physical.
The CB is severely devalued in the Cover 2, which is why I thought it was so funny when DAL spent the No. 6 overall pick and $10 million per season on CBs last year and switched to a Cover 2 this year.
@ gbts22:
Here’s one:
Same play, different angle:
Berselius wrote:
@ Ryno:
(dying laughing) Christ.
http://youtu.be/DSGghPNz1W8?t=5m15s
Go to 5:15 and 5:45 for two more. Poor Carimi.
@ GBTS:
Exactly. Then look at the two on the video I posted where Carimi looks like a turnstyle.
@ GBTS:
That 77 wins is good for 5th place in the NL Central and the 8th worst record MLB.
And on the PECOTA depth charts, the Cubs have a grand total of 1 position player projected to be average or better (Castro at 3.4 WARP). I guess DeJesus 1.9 in 444 PA would qualify for better than average. Next best is Rizzo at 1.4.
Sorry, Hairston is next after Castro and DeJesus with 1.5 WARP.
@ dmick89:
I thought an optimist like you would be happy with a projected 16 win improvement with this dogshit roster.
dmick89 wrote:
Onward Patient Motherfuckers
@ dmick89:
So what you are saying is that they aren’t accurately predicting the Cubs players (I would think Rizzo at least would be above average) and they still predict the Cubs having 77 wins.
I wonder if these predictions factor in that the Cubs won’t be playing the Astros for 15 games this season. Not surprisingly, they are who the Cubs won the most games against last season. Cubs went 8-7 vs them (dying laughing).
@ GBTS:
I think PECOTA is being too pessimistic. I like Castro for a .398 wOBA and Rizzo for a .428 one. I expect them to rank 1-2 in the league when it’s all over. I’m expecting 108 wins with this roster. Anything less is a complete and total failure.
@ WaLi:
CAIRO also projected Rizzo to be around 1.5 WAR. The reason is that he sucked ass in 2011 and it’s still part of the projections. Rizzo has such a small sample in his career. His career wRC+ is league average and for a 1st baseman, a league average bat isn’t any good. The hope is that he’s not only more like 2012, but better than he was in 2012.
@ GBTS:
Jason Parks was on the Bleacher Nation podcast, and talked for a long time.
http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/02/07/bn-podcast-episode-15-talkin-chicago-cubs-prospects-with-baseball-prospectuss-jason-parks/
@ dmick89:
Don’t forget that Baez will make the majors and hit a .430 wOBA with plus defense at 3b
@ Ryno:
It’s like he wasn’t even there…
Berselius wrote:
.430? Pssh, you’re thinking of Vogelbach (2B). Baez is an even .500 wOBA, not a point less
@ Myles:
I think you guys misplaced the decimal points. Pessimists.
/doesn’t actually know if it’s possible to have a wOBA > 1
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/projections/2013-pecota-projections.html